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src/components/dashboard/dashboard-content.tsx

@@ -373,7 +373,8 @@ export default function DashboardContent() {
                                 borderRadius="full"
                               >
                                 {Math.round(
-                                  pred.main_pick.calibrated_confidence ??
+                                  pred.main_pick.unified_score ??
+                                    pred.main_pick.calibrated_confidence ??
                                     pred.main_pick.confidence,
                                 )}
                                 %

src/components/matches/prediction-card.tsx

@@ -643,7 +643,7 @@ function PickCard({
           <SimpleGrid columns={2} gap={3} minW={{ base: "full", md: "320px" }}>
             <MetricTile
               label={labels.confidence}
-              value={formatPercent(pick.calibrated_confidence, 0)}
+              value={formatPercent(pick.unified_score ?? pick.calibrated_confidence, 0)}
             />
             <MetricTile label={labels.odds} value={formatOdds(pick.odds)} />
             <MetricTile
@@ -742,7 +742,7 @@ function SummaryTable({
                 right.signal_tier || "PASS",
               );
               if (leftIndex !== rightIndex) return leftIndex - rightIndex;
-              return right.calibrated_confidence - left.calibrated_confidence;
+              return (right.unified_score ?? right.calibrated_confidence) - (left.unified_score ?? left.calibrated_confidence);
             })
             .map((item) => (
               <Flex
@@ -778,6 +778,13 @@ function SummaryTable({
                 </HStack>
                 <HStack gap={5} fontSize="sm">
                   <Text minW="48px">{formatOdds(item.odds)}</Text>
+                  <Text minW="64px" color="fg.muted">
+                    {formatPercent(
+                      (item.model_probability ?? 0) * 100,
+                      0,
+                    )}{" "}
+                    {getUiText(ui, "probability-short", "olasılık")}
+                  </Text>
                   <Text
                     minW="96px"
                     color={`${getEdgePalette(item.ev_edge)}.500`}
@@ -786,7 +793,7 @@ function SummaryTable({
                     {formatEdgeSignal(item.ev_edge)}
                   </Text>
                   <Text minW="48px">
-                    {formatPercent(item.calibrated_confidence, 0)}
+                    {formatPercent(item.unified_score ?? item.calibrated_confidence, 0)}
                   </Text>
                   <Badge
                     colorPalette={getConfidenceBandPalette(
@@ -881,9 +888,18 @@ function MarketBoardSection({
 
   if (!marketBoard || !Object.keys(marketBoard).length) return null;
 
+  // Key by market:pick so each card resolves the summary row for the EXACT
+  // outcome it displays (graph pick). Keying by market alone collided on
+  // multi-row markets (MS 1/X/2) and surfaced the wrong odds + confidence.
   const summaryByMarket = new Map(
-    (betSummary || []).map((item) => [item.market, item]),
+    (betSummary || []).map((item) => [`${item.market}:${item.pick}`, item]),
   );
+  // Fallback: first row of a market, for cards whose pick has no exact row.
+  for (const item of betSummary || []) {
+    if (!summaryByMarket.has(item.market)) {
+      summaryByMarket.set(item.market, item);
+    }
+  }
   const orderedEntries = Object.entries(marketBoard).sort(([left], [right]) => {
     const leftIndex = MARKET_ORDER.indexOf(left);
     const rightIndex = MARKET_ORDER.indexOf(right);
@@ -899,9 +915,18 @@ function MarketBoardSection({
         <SimpleGrid columns={{ base: 1, xl: 2 }} gap={4}>
           {orderedEntries.map(([market, entry]) => {
             if (!entry?.probs) return null;
-            const summary = summaryByMarket.get(market);
+            const summary =
+              summaryByMarket.get(`${market}:${entry.pick}`) ??
+              summaryByMarket.get(market);
             const interval =
               summary?.confidence_interval || entry.confidence_interval;
+            // Hit probability == the dominant (green) bar in the graph below,
+            // so the headline never contradicts the distribution it sits on.
+            const pickProbPct =
+              Math.max(
+                0,
+                ...Object.values(entry.probs).map((p) => Number(p) || 0),
+              ) * 100;
             return (
               <Box
                 key={market}
@@ -951,25 +976,25 @@ function MarketBoardSection({
                       variant="subtle"
                       borderRadius="full"
                     >
-                      {entry.pick} ({formatPercent(entry.confidence, 0)})
+                      {entry.pick} ({formatPercent(pickProbPct, 0)})
                     </Badge>
                   ) : null}
                 </Flex>
                 <SimpleGrid columns={3} gap={2} mb={3}>
                   <MetricTile
                     label={getUiText(ui, "hit-probability", "Tutma Olasılığı")}
-                    value={formatPercent(entry.confidence, 0)}
+                    value={formatPercent(pickProbPct, 0)}
                     accent="green.500"
                   />
                   <MetricTile
                     label={getUiText(
                       ui,
-                      "calibrated-confidence",
-                      "Kalibre Güven",
+                      "unified-confidence",
+                      "Güven Skoru",
                     )}
                     value={
                       summary
-                        ? formatPercent(summary.calibrated_confidence, 0)
+                        ? formatPercent(summary.unified_score ?? summary.calibrated_confidence, 0)
                         : "-"
                     }
                     accent={summary?.playable ? "green.500" : "orange.500"}
@@ -999,8 +1024,7 @@ function MarketBoardSection({
                       <Bar
                         value={probability * 100}
                         color={
-                          entry.pick === outcome ||
-                          entry.pick?.toUpperCase() === outcome.toUpperCase()
+                          (Number(probability) || 0) * 100 >= pickProbPct - 1e-6
                             ? "green.400"
                             : "blue.400"
                         }
@@ -1349,7 +1373,7 @@ export default function PredictionCard({ prediction }: PredictionCardProps) {
                   <MetricTile
                     label={uiText("confidence-label", "Güven")}
                     value={formatPercent(
-                      recommendedPick.calibrated_confidence,
+                      recommendedPick.unified_score ?? recommendedPick.calibrated_confidence,
                       0,
                     )}
                   />

src/components/predictions/predictions-content.tsx

@@ -193,7 +193,8 @@ export default function PredictionsContent() {
                                       color="primary.fg"
                                     >
                                       {Math.round(
-                                        pred.main_pick.calibrated_confidence ??
+                                        pred.main_pick.unified_score ??
+                                          pred.main_pick.calibrated_confidence ??
                                           pred.main_pick.confidence,
                                       )}
                                       %

src/lib/api/predictions/types.ts

@@ -90,6 +90,8 @@ export interface EngineBreakdownDto {
 export type BetGrade = "A" | "B" | "C" | "PASS";
 export type SignalTier = "CORE" | "VALUE" | "LEAN" | "LONGSHOT" | "PASS";
 
+export type UnifiedScoreLabel = "very_reliable" | "reliable" | "moderate" | "low";
+
 export interface MatchPickDto {
   market: string;
   pick: string;
@@ -98,6 +100,8 @@ export interface MatchPickDto {
   odds: number;
   raw_confidence: number;
   calibrated_confidence: number;
+  unified_score?: number;
+  unified_score_label?: UnifiedScoreLabel;
   min_required_confidence: number;
   edge: number;
   ev_edge: number;
@@ -158,6 +162,8 @@ export interface MatchBetSummaryItemDto {
   pick: string;
   raw_confidence: number;
   calibrated_confidence: number;
+  unified_score?: number;
+  unified_score_label?: UnifiedScoreLabel;
   bet_grade: BetGrade;
   playable: boolean;
   stake_units: number;