ch

src/components/admin/admin-content.tsx

@@ -41,8 +41,9 @@ import { useState, useEffect } from "react";
 import { useSession } from "next-auth/react";
 import { EditUserModal } from "./edit-user-modal";
 import LeagueTiersContent from "./league-tiers-content";
+import ModelPerformanceContent from "./model-performance-content";
 
-type AdminTab = "overview" | "users" | "league-tiers";
+type AdminTab = "overview" | "users" | "league-tiers" | "model-performance";
 
 // ========================
 // Admin Stat Card
@@ -142,6 +143,7 @@ export default function AdminContent() {
     { key: "overview", label: t("overview") },
     { key: "users", label: t("user-management") },
     { key: "league-tiers", label: "Lig Tier" },
+    { key: "model-performance", label: "Model Performansı" },
   ];
 
   const getUserDisplayName = (user: AdminUserDto) => {
@@ -553,6 +555,9 @@ export default function AdminContent() {
         {/* League Tiers Tab */}
         {activeTab === "league-tiers" && <LeagueTiersContent />}
 
+        {/* Model Performance Tab */}
+        {activeTab === "model-performance" && <ModelPerformanceContent />}
+
         <EditUserModal
           user={editingUser}
           isOpen={!!editingUser}

src/components/admin/model-performance-content.tsx

@@ -0,0 +1,329 @@
+"use client";
+
+import {
+  Box,
+  Flex,
+  Heading,
+  Text,
+  SimpleGrid,
+  Card,
+  VStack,
+  HStack,
+  Badge,
+  Spinner,
+  Table,
+} from "@chakra-ui/react";
+import {
+  NativeSelectRoot,
+  NativeSelectField,
+} from "@/components/ui/forms/native-select";
+import { useColorModeValue } from "@/components/ui/color-mode";
+import { AnimatedCounter } from "@/components/motion";
+import { useModelPerformance } from "@/lib/api/admin/use-hooks";
+import type { ModelPerformanceMarketDto } from "@/lib/api/admin/types";
+import { LuTarget, LuTrendingUp, LuCircleCheck, LuLayers } from "react-icons/lu";
+import { useState } from "react";
+
+const MARKET_LABELS: Record<string, string> = {
+  MS: "Maç Sonucu",
+  DC: "Çifte Şans",
+  OU15: "Üst/Alt 1.5",
+  OU25: "Üst/Alt 2.5",
+  OU35: "Üst/Alt 3.5",
+  BTTS: "Karşılıklı Gol",
+  HT: "İlk Yarı Sonucu",
+  HT_OU05: "İY Üst/Alt 0.5",
+  HT_OU15: "İY Üst/Alt 1.5",
+  HTFT: "İlk Yarı / Maç Sonu",
+  OE: "Tek / Çift",
+  CARDS: "Kart Üst/Alt",
+  HCAP: "Handikap",
+};
+
+const calibrationLabel = (c: string): { text: string; color: string } => {
+  if (c === "good") return { text: "Dürüst", color: "green" };
+  if (c === "overconfident") return { text: "Fazla iyimser", color: "red" };
+  return { text: "Düşük tahmin", color: "orange" };
+};
+
+const roiColor = (roi: number): string =>
+  roi > 3 ? "green" : roi < -3 ? "red" : "gray";
+
+export default function ModelPerformanceContent() {
+  const [days, setDays] = useState(90);
+  const { data, isLoading } = useModelPerformance(days);
+  const cardBg = useColorModeValue("white", "gray.800");
+  const borderColor = useColorModeValue("gray.200", "gray.700");
+  const headBg = useColorModeValue("gray.50", "whiteAlpha.50");
+
+  const perf = data?.data;
+  const markets = perf?.markets ?? [];
+
+  return (
+    <VStack align="stretch" gap={6}>
+      <Flex justify="space-between" align="center" flexWrap="wrap" gap={3}>
+        <Box>
+          <Heading size="md">Model Performansı (İleri Test)</Heading>
+          <Text fontSize="sm" color="fg.muted">
+            Her market için &quot;model %X dedi → gerçekte %Y oldu&quot;.
+            Sonuçlanmış gerçek maçlardan otomatik hesaplanır (lookahead yok).
+          </Text>
+        </Box>
+        <NativeSelectRoot maxW="180px">
+          <NativeSelectField
+            value={String(days)}
+            onChange={(e) => setDays(Number(e.target.value))}
+          >
+            <option value="30">Son 30 gün</option>
+            <option value="90">Son 90 gün</option>
+            <option value="180">Son 180 gün</option>
+            <option value="365">Son 1 yıl</option>
+          </NativeSelectField>
+        </NativeSelectRoot>
+      </Flex>
+
+      {isLoading ? (
+        <Flex justify="center" py={12}>
+          <Spinner size="lg" />
+        </Flex>
+      ) : !perf || markets.length === 0 ? (
+        <Card.Root bg={cardBg} borderColor={borderColor}>
+          <Card.Body>
+            <VStack gap={2} py={8}>
+              <Text fontWeight="semibold">Henüz yeterli sonuçlanmış veri yok</Text>
+              <Text fontSize="sm" color="fg.muted" textAlign="center">
+                Tahminler maçlar oynandıkça sonuçlanır. Güvenilir kalibrasyon
+                için market başına ~100 sonuçlanmış tahmin gerekir; bu birkaç
+                hafta içinde birikir.
+              </Text>
+            </VStack>
+          </Card.Body>
+        </Card.Root>
+      ) : (
+        <>
+          {/* Summary cards */}
+          <SimpleGrid columns={{ base: 2, md: 4 }} gap={4}>
+            <StatCard
+              icon={<LuLayers />}
+              label="Sonuçlanan tahmin"
+              value={perf.settled_runs}
+              bg={cardBg}
+              border={borderColor}
+            />
+            <StatCard
+              icon={<LuTarget />}
+              label="Sonuçlanan market"
+              value={perf.settled_markets}
+              bg={cardBg}
+              border={borderColor}
+            />
+            <StatCard
+              icon={<LuCircleCheck />}
+              label="Dürüst market"
+              value={markets.filter((m) => m.calibration === "good").length}
+              bg={cardBg}
+              border={borderColor}
+            />
+            <StatCard
+              icon={<LuTrendingUp />}
+              label="Kârlı market (BET)"
+              value={markets.filter((m) => m.bet_roi_pct > 3).length}
+              bg={cardBg}
+              border={borderColor}
+            />
+          </SimpleGrid>
+
+          {/* Calibration + ROI table */}
+          <Card.Root bg={cardBg} borderColor={borderColor}>
+            <Card.Body p={0}>
+              <Box overflowX="auto">
+                <Table.Root size="sm" striped>
+                  <Table.Header bg={headBg}>
+                    <Table.Row>
+                      <Table.ColumnHeader>Market</Table.ColumnHeader>
+                      <Table.ColumnHeader textAlign="end">N</Table.ColumnHeader>
+                      <Table.ColumnHeader textAlign="end">
+                        Model %
+                      </Table.ColumnHeader>
+                      <Table.ColumnHeader textAlign="end">
+                        Gerçek %
+                      </Table.ColumnHeader>
+                      <Table.ColumnHeader textAlign="end">
+                        Fark
+                      </Table.ColumnHeader>
+                      <Table.ColumnHeader textAlign="center">
+                        Kalibrasyon
+                      </Table.ColumnHeader>
+                      <Table.ColumnHeader textAlign="end">
+                        Bahis
+                      </Table.ColumnHeader>
+                      <Table.ColumnHeader textAlign="end">
+                        İsabet %
+                      </Table.ColumnHeader>
+                      <Table.ColumnHeader textAlign="end">
+                        ROI %
+                      </Table.ColumnHeader>
+                    </Table.Row>
+                  </Table.Header>
+                  <Table.Body>
+                    {markets.map((m) => {
+                      const cal = calibrationLabel(m.calibration);
+                      return (
+                        <Table.Row key={m.market}>
+                          <Table.Cell>
+                            <VStack align="start" gap={0}>
+                              <Text fontWeight="semibold">{m.market}</Text>
+                              <Text fontSize="xs" color="fg.muted">
+                                {MARKET_LABELS[m.market] ?? m.market}
+                              </Text>
+                            </VStack>
+                          </Table.Cell>
+                          <Table.Cell textAlign="end">{m.samples}</Table.Cell>
+                          <Table.Cell textAlign="end">
+                            {m.shown_pct.toFixed(1)}%
+                          </Table.Cell>
+                          <Table.Cell textAlign="end" fontWeight="semibold">
+                            {m.actual_pct.toFixed(1)}%
+                          </Table.Cell>
+                          <Table.Cell textAlign="end">
+                            <Text
+                              color={`${cal.color}.500`}
+                              fontWeight="medium"
+                            >
+                              {m.gap > 0 ? "+" : ""}
+                              {m.gap.toFixed(1)}
+                            </Text>
+                          </Table.Cell>
+                          <Table.Cell textAlign="center">
+                            <Badge colorPalette={cal.color} variant="subtle">
+                              {cal.text}
+                            </Badge>
+                          </Table.Cell>
+                          <Table.Cell textAlign="end">
+                            {m.bet_count}
+                          </Table.Cell>
+                          <Table.Cell textAlign="end">
+                            {m.bet_count > 0
+                              ? `${m.bet_hit_pct.toFixed(0)}%`
+                              : "—"}
+                          </Table.Cell>
+                          <Table.Cell textAlign="end">
+                            {m.bet_count > 0 ? (
+                              <Text
+                                color={`${roiColor(m.bet_roi_pct)}.500`}
+                                fontWeight="semibold"
+                              >
+                                {m.bet_roi_pct > 0 ? "+" : ""}
+                                {m.bet_roi_pct.toFixed(1)}%
+                              </Text>
+                            ) : (
+                              "—"
+                            )}
+                          </Table.Cell>
+                        </Table.Row>
+                      );
+                    })}
+                  </Table.Body>
+                </Table.Root>
+              </Box>
+            </Card.Body>
+          </Card.Root>
+
+          {/* Decision rationale (why picks come out) */}
+          <Card.Root bg={cardBg} borderColor={borderColor}>
+            <Card.Body>
+              <Heading size="sm" mb={1}>
+                Öneri gerekçesi (karar dağılımı)
+              </Heading>
+              <Text fontSize="sm" color="fg.muted" mb={4}>
+                Her market için betting brain&apos;in ne karar verdiği:
+                BET (oyna), WATCH (izle), REJECT (ele).
+              </Text>
+              <SimpleGrid columns={{ base: 1, md: 2, lg: 3 }} gap={3}>
+                {markets.map((m) => (
+                  <Box
+                    key={m.market}
+                    p={3}
+                    borderWidth="1px"
+                    borderColor={borderColor}
+                    borderRadius="lg"
+                  >
+                    <HStack justify="space-between" mb={2}>
+                      <Text fontWeight="semibold">{m.market}</Text>
+                      <Text fontSize="xs" color="fg.muted">
+                        {MARKET_LABELS[m.market] ?? ""}
+                      </Text>
+                    </HStack>
+                    <HStack gap={1} flexWrap="wrap">
+                      {Object.entries(m.actions)
+                        .sort((a, b) => b[1] - a[1])
+                        .map(([action, count]) => (
+                          <Badge
+                            key={action}
+                            variant="subtle"
+                            colorPalette={
+                              action === "BET"
+                                ? "green"
+                                : action === "WATCH"
+                                  ? "blue"
+                                  : action === "REJECT"
+                                    ? "gray"
+                                    : "purple"
+                            }
+                          >
+                            {action}: {count}
+                          </Badge>
+                        ))}
+                    </HStack>
+                  </Box>
+                ))}
+              </SimpleGrid>
+            </Card.Body>
+          </Card.Root>
+
+          <Text fontSize="xs" color="fg.muted">
+            Son güncelleme:{" "}
+            {perf.generated_at
+              ? new Date(perf.generated_at).toLocaleString("tr-TR")
+              : "—"}{" "}
+            · Pencere: {perf.window_days} gün · ECE düşük = daha dürüst
+          </Text>
+        </>
+      )}
+    </VStack>
+  );
+}
+
+function StatCard({
+  icon,
+  label,
+  value,
+  bg,
+  border,
+}: {
+  icon: React.ReactNode;
+  label: string;
+  value: number;
+  bg: string;
+  border: string;
+}) {
+  return (
+    <Card.Root bg={bg} borderColor={border}>
+      <Card.Body>
+        <HStack gap={3}>
+          <Box color="primary.400" fontSize="xl">
+            {icon}
+          </Box>
+          <VStack align="start" gap={0}>
+            <Text fontSize="2xl" fontWeight="bold">
+              <AnimatedCounter value={value} />
+            </Text>
+            <Text fontSize="xs" color="fg.muted">
+              {label}
+            </Text>
+          </VStack>
+        </HStack>
+      </Card.Body>
+    </Card.Root>
+  );
+}

src/components/matches/prediction-card.tsx

@@ -1239,8 +1239,53 @@ export default function PredictionCard({ prediction }: PredictionCardProps) {
     marketProbability: uiText("market-probability-short", "Piyasa"),
   };
 
+  const leagueConfidence = prediction.match_info?.league_confidence;
+  const leagueConfStyles: Record<string, { color: string; label: string }> = {
+    high: {
+      color: "green",
+      label: uiText("league-conf-high", "Bu ligde model güçlü"),
+    },
+    medium: {
+      color: "yellow",
+      label: uiText("league-conf-medium", "Bu ligde model orta"),
+    },
+    low: {
+      color: "red",
+      label: uiText("league-conf-low", "Bu ligde model zayıf"),
+    },
+  };
+  const leagueConfMeta = leagueConfidence
+    ? leagueConfStyles[leagueConfidence.label]
+    : null;
+
   return (
     <VStack align="stretch" gap={5}>
+      {leagueConfidence && leagueConfMeta ? (
+        <HStack
+          justify="space-between"
+          p={2.5}
+          px={3}
+          borderWidth="1px"
+          borderColor={`${leagueConfMeta.color}.300`}
+          bg={`${leagueConfMeta.color}.50`}
+          borderRadius="lg"
+          _dark={{ bg: `${leagueConfMeta.color}.950` }}
+          flexWrap="wrap"
+          gap={2}
+        >
+          <HStack gap={2}>
+            <Badge colorPalette={leagueConfMeta.color} variant="solid">
+              {leagueConfMeta.label}
+            </Badge>
+            <Text fontSize="xs" color="fg.muted">
+              {uiText("league-conf-basis", "geçmiş performans")}: ROI{" "}
+              {leagueConfidence.bet_roi > 0 ? "+" : ""}
+              {leagueConfidence.bet_roi}% · {leagueConfidence.bet_n}{" "}
+              {uiText("bets-short", "bahis")}
+            </Text>
+          </HStack>
+        </HStack>
+      ) : null}
       {isLive ? (
         <Box
           p={3}

src/lib/api/admin/service.ts

@@ -7,6 +7,7 @@ import type {
   AnalyticsOverviewDto,
   LeagueTierDto,
   LeagueTierStatsDto,
+  ModelPerformanceDto,
   RetrainStatusDto,
   SettingDto,
   UpdateLeagueTierDto,
@@ -30,6 +31,16 @@ const getAnalyticsOverview = () => {
   });
 };
 
+// Model Performance (forward-test)
+const getModelPerformance = (days?: number) => {
+  return apiRequest<ApiResponse<ModelPerformanceDto>>({
+    url: "/admin/model-performance",
+    client: "admin",
+    method: "get",
+    params: days ? { days: String(days) } : undefined,
+  });
+};
+
 // Settings
 const getAllSettings = () => {
   return apiRequest<ApiResponse<Record<string, string>>>({
@@ -204,6 +215,7 @@ const getRetrainStatus = () => {
 
 export const adminService = {
   getAnalyticsOverview,
+  getModelPerformance,
   getAllSettings,
   updateSetting,
   getAllUsageLimits,

src/lib/api/admin/types.ts

@@ -134,3 +134,30 @@ export interface AnalyticsOverviewDto {
   aiHealth?: Record<string, unknown>;
   [key: string]: unknown;
 }
+
+// ========================
+// Model Performance (Forward-Test)
+// ========================
+
+export interface ModelPerformanceMarketDto {
+  market: string;
+  samples: number;
+  shown_pct: number;
+  actual_pct: number;
+  gap: number;
+  ece: number;
+  calibration: "good" | "overconfident" | "underconfident";
+  bet_count: number;
+  bet_hit_pct: number;
+  bet_roi_pct: number;
+  actions: Record<string, number>;
+  tiers: Record<string, number>;
+}
+
+export interface ModelPerformanceDto {
+  window_days: number;
+  settled_runs: number;
+  settled_markets: number;
+  generated_at: string;
+  markets: ModelPerformanceMarketDto[];
+}

src/lib/api/admin/use-hooks.ts

@@ -12,6 +12,8 @@ import type {
 export const AdminQueryKeys = {
   all: ["admin"] as const,
   analytics: () => [...AdminQueryKeys.all, "analytics"] as const,
+  modelPerformance: (days?: number) =>
+    [...AdminQueryKeys.all, "modelPerformance", days] as const,
   settings: () => [...AdminQueryKeys.all, "settings"] as const,
   usageLimits: (params?: AdminPaginationParams) =>
     [...AdminQueryKeys.all, "usageLimits", params] as const,
@@ -32,6 +34,15 @@ export const useAdminAnalytics = (enabled = true) => {
   });
 };
 
+// Model Performance (forward-test)
+export const useModelPerformance = (days = 90, enabled = true) => {
+  return useQuery({
+    queryKey: AdminQueryKeys.modelPerformance(days),
+    queryFn: () => adminService.getModelPerformance(days),
+    enabled,
+  });
+};
+
 // Settings
 export const useAdminSettings = () => {
   return useQuery({

src/lib/api/predictions/types.ts

@@ -13,6 +13,13 @@ export interface MatchInfoDto {
   match_date_ms: number;
   league_id?: string | null;
   is_top_league?: boolean;
+  // Backtest-derived per-league confidence (ROI + sample size). null = too little data.
+  league_confidence?: {
+    label: "high" | "medium" | "low";
+    bet_roi: number;
+    bet_n: number;
+    hit: number;
+  } | null;
   sport?: SportType;
   // Live snapshot — set when the match is in play (used to detect stale predictions)
   status?: string | null;