ch

src/lib/api/admin/service.ts

@@ -7,6 +7,7 @@ import type {
   AnalyticsOverviewDto,
   LeagueTierDto,
   LeagueTierStatsDto,
+  ModelPerformanceDto,
   RetrainStatusDto,
   SettingDto,
   UpdateLeagueTierDto,
@@ -30,6 +31,16 @@ const getAnalyticsOverview = () => {
   });
 };
 
+// Model Performance (forward-test)
+const getModelPerformance = (days?: number) => {
+  return apiRequest<ApiResponse<ModelPerformanceDto>>({
+    url: "/admin/model-performance",
+    client: "admin",
+    method: "get",
+    params: days ? { days: String(days) } : undefined,
+  });
+};
+
 // Settings
 const getAllSettings = () => {
   return apiRequest<ApiResponse<Record<string, string>>>({
@@ -204,6 +215,7 @@ const getRetrainStatus = () => {
 
 export const adminService = {
   getAnalyticsOverview,
+  getModelPerformance,
   getAllSettings,
   updateSetting,
   getAllUsageLimits,

src/lib/api/admin/types.ts

@@ -134,3 +134,30 @@ export interface AnalyticsOverviewDto {
   aiHealth?: Record<string, unknown>;
   [key: string]: unknown;
 }
+
+// ========================
+// Model Performance (Forward-Test)
+// ========================
+
+export interface ModelPerformanceMarketDto {
+  market: string;
+  samples: number;
+  shown_pct: number;
+  actual_pct: number;
+  gap: number;
+  ece: number;
+  calibration: "good" | "overconfident" | "underconfident";
+  bet_count: number;
+  bet_hit_pct: number;
+  bet_roi_pct: number;
+  actions: Record<string, number>;
+  tiers: Record<string, number>;
+}
+
+export interface ModelPerformanceDto {
+  window_days: number;
+  settled_runs: number;
+  settled_markets: number;
+  generated_at: string;
+  markets: ModelPerformanceMarketDto[];
+}

src/lib/api/admin/use-hooks.ts

@@ -12,6 +12,8 @@ import type {
 export const AdminQueryKeys = {
   all: ["admin"] as const,
   analytics: () => [...AdminQueryKeys.all, "analytics"] as const,
+  modelPerformance: (days?: number) =>
+    [...AdminQueryKeys.all, "modelPerformance", days] as const,
   settings: () => [...AdminQueryKeys.all, "settings"] as const,
   usageLimits: (params?: AdminPaginationParams) =>
     [...AdminQueryKeys.all, "usageLimits", params] as const,
@@ -32,6 +34,15 @@ export const useAdminAnalytics = (enabled = true) => {
   });
 };
 
+// Model Performance (forward-test)
+export const useModelPerformance = (days = 90, enabled = true) => {
+  return useQuery({
+    queryKey: AdminQueryKeys.modelPerformance(days),
+    queryFn: () => adminService.getModelPerformance(days),
+    enabled,
+  });
+};
+
 // Settings
 export const useAdminSettings = () => {
   return useQuery({

src/lib/api/predictions/types.ts

@@ -13,6 +13,13 @@ export interface MatchInfoDto {
   match_date_ms: number;
   league_id?: string | null;
   is_top_league?: boolean;
+  // Backtest-derived per-league confidence (ROI + sample size). null = too little data.
+  league_confidence?: {
+    label: "high" | "medium" | "low";
+    bet_roi: number;
+    bet_n: number;
+    hit: number;
+  } | null;
   sport?: SportType;
   // Live snapshot — set when the match is in play (used to detect stale predictions)
   status?: string | null;