fahricansecer
988ee2f50d
betting_brain.py: - HARD_MIN_SAMPLES=50 floor for calibrator bypass - ev_edge < 0 + >= 0.20 hard vetoes - BTTS muted (grid search found no profitable config) - Per-market optimal envelopes (MS, OU25) - Score coherence filter: main_pick must agree with score prediction - HTFT reversal cross-check for MS picks feature_builder.py / data_loader.py: - Real home/away_position from data (was hardcoded 10) - Cup detection wired into UpsetEngine - _estimate_league_position with 300-day season filter New scripts: - diagnostic_backtest.py: per-bet diagnostic backtest with loss patterns - optimize_filters.py: grid search per-market optimal thresholds - analyze_backtest_csv.py: root-cause hypothesis testing on CSV - compare_backtests.py: side-by-side validation with verdict - test_score_coherence.py: smoke test for coherence filter (20/20 pass) Reports: - diagnostic_backtest_20260525_024437 (50-match smoke) - diagnostic_backtest_20260525_035649 (1000-match in-sample) - filter_optimization_patch.json (grid search winners per market) Social poster v3: - satori + resvg HTML/CSS rendering pipeline - Twemoji football/basketball + flag SVGs - caption SEO: 12 curated hashtags per post - image SEO: descriptive filenames + .json metadata sidecar - /health, /preview-png, /run-now endpoints Docs: - mds/SESSION_HANDOFF.md: full session state for cross-machine continuity - mds/SOCIAL_POSTER_SETUP.md: API keys + test commands Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
86 lines
3.8 KiB
Plaintext
86 lines
3.8 KiB
Plaintext
==============================================================================
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DIAGNOSTIC BACKTEST REPORT
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==============================================================================
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Generated: 2026-05-25T03:56:49
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Sample window: start=-14d, end=now
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Max matches: 1000
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Excluded days: ['2026-04-29', '2026-05-03']
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OVERALL
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------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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n_total : 1000
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n_playable_settled : 524
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wins : 287
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losses : 237
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hit_rate_pct : 54.77
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unit_profit : -17.897
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staked : 107.0
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roi_pct : -16.73
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PER MARKET
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------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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market n hit% profit roi%
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OU25 236 56.78 -6.271 -12.93
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BTTS 205 51.22 -8.89 -21.63
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MS 76 57.89 -2.396 -14.98
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DC 4 100.0 0.26 32.5
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OU35 3 0.0 -0.6 -100.0
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PER CALIBRATED CONFIDENCE BAND
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------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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band n hit% roi%
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45-50 8 50.0 -20.11
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50-55 5 40.0 -49.23
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55-60 52 53.85 -6.36
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60-65 33 48.48 -24.39
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65-70 420 55.48 -16.52
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70-80 6 66.67 -33.75
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PER ODDS BAND
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------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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band n hit% roi%
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1.3-1.5 241 61.41 -15.12
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1.5-1.8 221 52.04 -15.63
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1.8-2.2 56 41.07 -22.86
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2.2-3.0 5 20.0 -44.15
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3.0-5.0 1 0.0 -100.0
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LEAGUE vs CUP
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------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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league n= 524 hit=54.77% roi=-16.73%
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LOSS DIAGNOSTICS
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------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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total losses: 237
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total lost units: -48.7
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By market: [('OU25', 102), ('BTTS', 100), ('MS', 32), ('OU35', 3)]
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Loss patterns (count, % of losses):
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high_htft_reversal_prob (>=0.20) 0 (0.0%)
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cup_match 0 (0.0%)
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low_league_reliability (<0.45) 42 (17.72%)
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v27_disagree 60 (25.32%)
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trap_market_flagged 81 (34.18%)
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low_calibrated_conf (<55) 7 (2.95%)
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high_odds_underdog (>=2.5) 4 (1.69%)
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low_data_quality (<0.55) 40 (16.88%)
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high_risk_level 20 (8.44%)
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inferred_features 0 (0.0%)
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Top betting_brain issues seen in losses:
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triple_value_not_confirmed 230
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trap_market_market_overpriced 81
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low_reliability_league 40
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v25_v27_soft_disagreement 10
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engine_consensus_disagree 5
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historical_sample_too_low 3
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very_low_reliability_league 2
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htft_reversal_prob_minor=0.13 1
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Top betting_brain vetoes (in losses — i.e. veto fired but bet still went through value-sniper override):
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RECOMMENDATIONS
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------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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• [raise_confidence_threshold]
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confidence_band: 65-70
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evidence: n=420, roi=-16.52%
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suggested_fix: Raise MIN_BET_SCORE or market_min_conf above 65
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============================================================================== |