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iddaai-be/ai-engine/reports/diagnostic_backtest_20260525_024437.csv
T
fahricansecer 988ee2f50d Add backtest pipeline, betting_brain filters, score coherence + social v3
betting_brain.py:
- HARD_MIN_SAMPLES=50 floor for calibrator bypass
- ev_edge < 0 + >= 0.20 hard vetoes
- BTTS muted (grid search found no profitable config)
- Per-market optimal envelopes (MS, OU25)
- Score coherence filter: main_pick must agree with score prediction
- HTFT reversal cross-check for MS picks

feature_builder.py / data_loader.py:
- Real home/away_position from data (was hardcoded 10)
- Cup detection wired into UpsetEngine
- _estimate_league_position with 300-day season filter

New scripts:
- diagnostic_backtest.py: per-bet diagnostic backtest with loss patterns
- optimize_filters.py: grid search per-market optimal thresholds
- analyze_backtest_csv.py: root-cause hypothesis testing on CSV
- compare_backtests.py: side-by-side validation with verdict
- test_score_coherence.py: smoke test for coherence filter (20/20 pass)

Reports:
- diagnostic_backtest_20260525_024437 (50-match smoke)
- diagnostic_backtest_20260525_035649 (1000-match in-sample)
- filter_optimization_patch.json (grid search winners per market)

Social poster v3:
- satori + resvg HTML/CSS rendering pipeline
- Twemoji football/basketball + flag SVGs
- caption SEO: 12 curated hashtags per post
- image SEO: descriptive filenames + .json metadata sidecar
- /health, /preview-png, /run-now endpoints

Docs:
- mds/SESSION_HANDOFF.md: full session state for cross-machine continuity
- mds/SOCIAL_POSTER_SETUP.md: API keys + test commands

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-25 20:43:28 +03:00

52 lines
21 KiB
CSV

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8es4680yd87gtmomg2jk3isyc,2026-05-24,3is4bkgf3loxv9qfg3hm8zfqb,0,1,0,0,OU25,Üst,1.53,0.2,True,False,-0.2,59.5,65.4,67.8,-0.0259,B,True,42.4,BET,,inferred_statistical_features;triple_value_not_confirmed,base_model_playable;value_sniper_override;v25_v27_aligned;strong_historical_sample,0.5955,0.6536,-0.0581,0.0713,False,DISAGREE,0.74,live_match_pre_match_features;ai_features_inferred_from_history,MEDIUM,0.5033,,2/2,,False,v28-pro-max,betting_brain_approved
8dmcz3k1u4ze53nvrsoz7eoes,2026-05-24,3is4bkgf3loxv9qfg3hm8zfqb,1,1,1,0,BTTS,KG Var,1.26,0.0,False,True,0.0,54.9,69.9,57.6,-0.2005,PASS,True,3.3,WATCH_NO_VALUE,odds_below_minimum,inferred_statistical_features;triple_value_not_confirmed;historical_sample_too_low,base_model_playable;value_sniper_override,0.5488,0.7937,-0.2449,,False,AGREE,0.74,live_match_pre_match_features;ai_features_inferred_from_history,LOW,0.5033,,1/1,,False,v28-pro-max,betting_brain_no_value_odds_below_minimum
8gcbai6m7v7o8piqfram4qe50,2026-05-24,3is4bkgf3loxv9qfg3hm8zfqb,3,1,2,0,HTFT,1/1,4.59,0.0,False,True,0.0,27.3,27.3,24.6,0.1657,PASS,True,0.0,REJECT,calibrated_confidence_too_low;play_score_too_low;volatile_market_requires_exceptional_evidence,inferred_statistical_features;historical_sample_too_low,base_model_playable,0.2734,0.2179,0.0555,,False,DISAGREE,0.74,live_match_pre_match_features;ai_features_inferred_from_history,MEDIUM,0.5033,,1/1,,False,v28-pro-max,betting_brain_no_safe_pick
3azy3enp78au0zfugc3l1yf4k,2026-05-24,54c65mhi143utomzvvv3q2avh,2,0,1,0,,,,1.0,False,,0.0,,,,,,False,,,,,,,,,,False,AGREE,0.532,missing_full_ms_odds;lineup_probable_not_confirmed;lineup_projection_low_confidence;lineup_incomplete;missing_referee;ai_features_inferred_from_history,MEDIUM,,,,,False,v28-pro-max,no_bet_conditions_met
1d2fb7bt5f8xy5on24w1kj1g4,2026-05-24,54c65mhi143utomzvvv3q2avh,1,0,0,0,,,,1.0,False,,0.0,,,,,,False,,,,,,,,,,False,AGREE,0.532,missing_full_ms_odds;lineup_probable_not_confirmed;lineup_projection_low_confidence;lineup_incomplete;missing_referee;ai_features_inferred_from_history,LOW,,,,,False,v28-pro-max,no_bet_conditions_met
pw01xm8v3jlz13fpi3zq0ftg,2026-05-24,3umprqta6ipyann6qjjh07biz,1,1,0,0,,,,1.0,False,,0.0,,,,,,False,,,,,,,,,,False,AGREE,0.33,missing_full_ms_odds;lineup_unavailable;lineup_incomplete;missing_referee;ai_features_inferred_from_history,MEDIUM,,,,,False,v28-pro-max,no_bet_conditions_met
mjo9k4zr1x884vjlwea2y1hw,2026-05-24,3umprqta6ipyann6qjjh07biz,1,0,1,0,,,,1.0,False,,0.0,,,,,,False,,,,,,,,,,False,AGREE,0.33,missing_full_ms_odds;lineup_unavailable;lineup_incomplete;missing_referee;ai_features_inferred_from_history,MEDIUM,,,,,False,v28-pro-max,no_bet_conditions_met
8d8fm7wli7tfx8hm9w5l8nuhg,2026-05-24,3is4bkgf3loxv9qfg3hm8zfqb,1,1,1,0,BTTS,KG Var,1.72,0.2,True,True,0.144,53.7,69.9,65.2,-0.0712,B,True,28.0,BET,,inferred_statistical_features;triple_value_not_confirmed,base_model_playable;value_sniper_override;strong_historical_sample,0.5371,0.5814,-0.0443,,False,AGREE,0.74,live_match_pre_match_features;ai_features_inferred_from_history,MEDIUM,0.5033,,,,False,v28-pro-max,betting_brain_approved
oqsq3f0kvic8xfed8dp302z8,2026-05-24,3umprqta6ipyann6qjjh07biz,3,2,0,0,,,,1.0,False,,0.0,,,,,,False,,,,,,,,,,False,AGREE,0.33,missing_full_ms_odds;lineup_unavailable;lineup_incomplete;missing_referee;ai_features_inferred_from_history,MEDIUM,,,,,False,v28-pro-max,no_bet_conditions_met
o7tn4si7fxvq9c2mg0xs48wk,2026-05-24,3umprqta6ipyann6qjjh07biz,0,1,0,0,,,,1.0,False,,0.0,,,,,,False,,,,,,,,,,False,AGREE,0.33,missing_full_ms_odds;lineup_unavailable;lineup_incomplete;missing_referee;ai_features_inferred_from_history,MEDIUM,,,,,False,v28-pro-max,no_bet_conditions_met
eh9jfegscokidyczxfq691990,2026-05-24,3j81qr7yc4gdnakfwnxf95ovh,2,3,0,1,OU25,Üst,1.44,0.2,True,True,0.088,50.1,57.7,32.9,-0.2537,B,True,17.0,BET,,inferred_statistical_features;trap_market_market_overpriced;triple_value_not_confirmed,base_model_playable;value_sniper_override;v25_v27_aligned;strong_historical_sample,0.5009,0.6944,-0.1935,0.0596,True,AGREE,0.51,lineup_unavailable;lineup_incomplete;missing_referee;ai_features_inferred_from_history,MEDIUM,0.8771,,,,False,v28-pro-max,betting_brain_approved
dkhhkbwnxwl47e8hybv89mwb8,2026-05-24,5jd0k2txwnq69frs79eulba8j,1,2,0,1,OU25,Üst,1.23,0.0,False,True,0.0,61.4,65.4,61.2,-0.1185,PASS,True,11.4,WATCH_NO_VALUE,odds_below_minimum,base_model_not_playable;inferred_statistical_features;triple_value_not_confirmed,value_sniper_override;v25_v27_aligned;strong_historical_sample,0.6144,0.813,-0.1986,0.0179,False,AGREE,0.74,ai_features_inferred_from_history,LOW,0.9233,,1/1,,False,v28-pro-max,betting_brain_no_value_odds_below_minimum
1lknqdz9vmb3hnqu144zkkefo,2026-05-24,1r097lpxe0xn03ihb7wi98kao,1,0,1,0,BTTS,KG Var,1.78,0.2,True,False,-0.2,50.0,61.7,55.6,-0.088,B,True,29.3,BET,,inferred_statistical_features;triple_value_not_confirmed,base_model_playable;value_sniper_override;strong_historical_sample,0.5,0.5618,-0.0618,,False,AGREE,0.74,live_match_pre_match_features;ai_features_inferred_from_history,MEDIUM,0.7391,,1/1,,False,v28-pro-max,betting_brain_approved
3oazp9kfbyyiatn246k4to6xg,2026-05-24,9ynnnx1qmkizq1o3qr3v0nsuk,1,2,0,1,BTTS,KG Var,1.36,0.2,True,True,0.072,53.7,69.9,61.2,-0.1571,B,True,33.7,BET,,inferred_statistical_features;triple_value_not_confirmed,base_model_playable;value_sniper_override;strong_historical_sample,0.5371,0.7353,-0.1982,,False,AGREE,0.74,live_match_pre_match_features;ai_features_inferred_from_history,LOW,0.554,,2/2,,False,v28-pro-max,betting_brain_approved
8cr8t6qh0r6g0mv6ftq0ic1sk,2026-05-24,a9vrdkelbgif0gtu3wxsr75xo,2,1,0,1,OU25,Üst,1.46,0.2,True,True,0.092,61.4,65.4,68.1,-0.0182,B,True,47.8,BET,,inferred_statistical_features;triple_value_not_confirmed,base_model_playable;value_sniper_override;v25_v27_aligned;strong_historical_sample,0.6144,0.6849,-0.0705,0.0535,False,AGREE,0.74,ai_features_inferred_from_history,MEDIUM,0.6618,,,,False,v28-pro-max,betting_brain_approved