gg

messages/en.json

@@ -201,11 +201,11 @@
       "missing_total_odds": "Over/Under odds are missing.",
       "missing_spread_odds": "Spread (Handicap) odds are missing.",
       "no_bet_conditions_met": "The algorithm could not find a safe/valuable bet for this match.",
-      "insufficient_play_score": "Play score is below the playability threshold.",
+      "insufficient_play_score": "Model signal is below the threshold.",
       "no_ev_edge_minimum_stake": "Passed safety gates but no mathematical edge — minimum stake applied.",
       "upset_risk_detected": "High upset risk detected, proceed with caution."
     },
-    "ev-edge": "EV Edge",
+    "ev-edge": "Theoretical Edge",
     "implied-prob": "Market Probability",
     "model-prob": "Model Probability",
     "kelly-stake": "Kelly Stake",
@@ -238,23 +238,23 @@
     },
     "ui": {
       "summary-title": "Prediction Summary",
-      "summary-info": "Shows what stands out first and then explains why it stands out.",
+      "summary-info": "Shows model signals and uncertainty in a conservative summary.",
-      "main-recommendation": "Main Recommendation",
+      "main-recommendation": "Highlighted Signal",
       "best-market-copy": "is the strongest option in this market.",
       "confidence-label": "Confidence",
       "odds-label": "Odds",
-      "edge-label": "Expected Advantage (Edge)",
+      "edge-label": "Theoretical Edge",
-      "edge-info": "Edge is the gap between the model probability and the market probability. If it is positive, the model sees value in this price.",
+      "edge-info": "The theoretical gap between model probability and market probability; it is not a guarantee or a certain profit expectation.",
       "stake-label": "Suggested Bet Size (Stake)",
       "stake-label-short": "Bet Size",
       "stake-info": "Stake is the suggested bet size. 2.0u means a 2-unit bet in your own bankroll plan.",
-      "play-score-label": "Playability Score",
+      "play-score-label": "Model Signal",
-      "playability-label": "Playability",
+      "playability-label": "Model signal",
       "quick-read": "Quick read",
       "lineup-source": "Lineup Source",
       "model-label": "Model",
       "engine-info": "Shows which components influence the prediction the most.",
-      "best-single-pick": "Best Single Pick",
+      "best-single-pick": "Strongest Signal",
       "alternative-markets": "Alternative Markets",
       "alternative-markets-info": "Options outside the main recommendation.",
       "alternative": "Alternative",

messages/tr.json

@@ -202,10 +202,10 @@
       "missing_total_odds": "Alt/Üst oranları eksik.",
       "missing_spread_odds": "Handikap oranları eksik.",
       "no_bet_conditions_met": "Algoritma bu maç için güvenli/değerli bir bahis önerisi bulamadı.",
-      "insufficient_play_score": "Oynanabilirlik skoru eşiğin altında kaldı.",
+      "insufficient_play_score": "Model sinyali eşiğin altında kaldı.",
       "no_ev_edge_minimum_stake": "Güvenlik kontrollerini geçti ancak matematik avantaj yok — minimum bahis uygulandı."
     },
-    "ev-edge": "EV Edge",
+    "ev-edge": "Teorik Avantaj",
     "implied-prob": "Piyasa Olasılığı",
     "model-prob": "Model Olasılığı",
     "kelly-stake": "Kelly Bahis",
@@ -238,23 +238,23 @@
     },
     "ui": {
       "summary-title": "Tahmin Özeti",
-      "summary-info": "Önce neyin oynanabileceğini, sonra bunun neden öne çıktığını gösterir.",
+      "summary-info": "Model sinyallerini ve belirsizlikleri sade şekilde gösterir.",
-      "main-recommendation": "Ana Öneri",
+      "main-recommendation": "Öne Çıkan Sinyal",
       "best-market-copy": "marketinde en güçlü seçim.",
       "confidence-label": "Güven",
       "odds-label": "Oran",
-      "edge-label": "Beklenen Avantaj (Edge)",
+      "edge-label": "Teorik Avantaj",
-      "edge-info": "Edge, model olasılığı ile piyasa olasılığı arasındaki farktır. Pozitifse model bu oranı avantajlı görüyor demektir.",
+      "edge-info": "Model olasılığı ile piyasa olasılığı arasındaki teorik farktır; tutma garantisi veya kesin kazanç beklentisi değildir.",
       "stake-label": "Önerilen Miktar (Stake)",
       "stake-label-short": "Bahis Miktarı",
       "stake-info": "Stake, bu bahis için önerilen bahis birimidir. 2.0u, kendi bankroll planınızdaki 2 birimlik bahis anlamına gelir.",
-      "play-score-label": "Oynanabilirlik Puanı",
+      "play-score-label": "Model Sinyali",
-      "playability-label": "Oynanabilirlik",
+      "playability-label": "Model sinyali",
       "quick-read": "Hızlı yorum",
       "lineup-source": "Kadronun Kaynağı",
       "model-label": "Model",
       "engine-info": "Tahmini en çok hangi bileşenlerin etkilediğini gösterir.",
-      "best-single-pick": "En İyi Tekli Seçim",
+      "best-single-pick": "En Güçlü Sinyal",
       "alternative-markets": "Alternatif Marketler",
       "alternative-markets-info": "Ana tahmin dışındaki seçenekler.",
       "alternative": "Alternatif",

src/components/matches/prediction-card.tsx

@@ -49,7 +49,7 @@ interface PredictionCardProps {
 function formatReasonFallback(reason: string): string {
   if (reason.startsWith("risk:")) return formatReasonFallback(reason.slice(5));
   const evMatch = reason.match(/^ev_edge_([+\-][\d.]+%)_grade_(\w)$/);
-  if (evMatch) return `Beklenen avantaj ${evMatch[1]} (Not ${evMatch[2]})`;
+  if (evMatch) return `Teorik avantaj sinyali: Not ${evMatch[2]}`;
   const negMatch = reason.match(/^negative_model_edge_([+\-][\d.]+)$/);
   if (negMatch) return `Model avantajı negatif (${negMatch[1]})`;
   const thresholdMatch = reason.match(/^below_market_edge_threshold_([+\-]?[\d.]+)$/);
@@ -90,6 +90,24 @@ function formatProbability(value?: number, digits = 1): string {
   return `${(value * 100).toFixed(digits)}%`;
 }
 
+function formatSignalScore(value?: number): string {
+  if (value === undefined || value === null || Number.isNaN(value)) return "-";
+  return `${Math.max(0, Math.min(100, value)).toFixed(0)}/100`;
+}
+
+function formatEdgeSignal(value?: number): string {
+  if (value === undefined || value === null || Number.isNaN(value)) return "-";
+  return `${value > 0 ? "+" : ""}${formatPercent(value * 100, 1)}`;
+}
+
+function getEdgePalette(value?: number): string {
+  if (value === undefined || value === null || Number.isNaN(value)) return "gray";
+  if (value <= 0) return "red";
+  if (value < 0.08) return "yellow";
+  if (value < 0.15) return "orange";
+  return "purple";
+}
+
 function formatOdds(value?: number | null): string {
   if (!value || value <= 1.01) return "-";
   return value.toFixed(2);
@@ -485,9 +503,8 @@ function PickCard({
               <Badge colorPalette={confidenceBandPalette} variant="subtle">
                 {getConfidenceBandLabel(pick.confidence_interval?.band)}
               </Badge>
-              <Badge colorPalette={pick.ev_edge > 0 ? "green" : "red"} variant="subtle">
+              <Badge colorPalette={getEdgePalette(pick.ev_edge)} variant="subtle">
-                EV {pick.ev_edge > 0 ? "+" : ""}
+                Teorik avantaj {formatEdgeSignal(pick.ev_edge)}
-                {formatPercent(pick.ev_edge * 100, 1)}
               </Badge>
             </HStack>
           </VStack>
@@ -498,7 +515,7 @@ function PickCard({
               label={labels.recommendedStake}
               value={formatUnits(pick.stake_units || stakeFallback)}
             />
-            <MetricTile label={labels.playScore} value={formatPercent(pick.play_score, 0)} />
+            <MetricTile label={labels.playScore} value={formatSignalScore(pick.play_score)} />
             <MetricTile label="Guven Araligi" value={formatInterval(pick.confidence_interval)} />
             <MetricTile
               label="Band"
@@ -514,12 +531,12 @@ function PickCard({
               {labels.playability}
             </Text>
             <Text fontSize="sm" color="fg.muted">
-              {formatPercent(pick.play_score, 1)}
+              {formatSignalScore(pick.play_score)}
             </Text>
           </HStack>
           <Bar
             value={pick.play_score}
-            color={pick.ev_edge > 0 ? "green.400" : "orange.400"}
+            color={pick.ev_edge > 0 ? "blue.400" : "orange.400"}
             trackBg={trackBg}
           />
         </Box>
@@ -596,9 +613,8 @@ function SummaryTable({
               </HStack>
               <HStack gap={5} fontSize="sm">
                 <Text minW="48px">{formatOdds(item.odds)}</Text>
-                <Text minW="68px" color={item.ev_edge > 0 ? "green.500" : "red.500"} fontWeight="semibold">
+                <Text minW="96px" color={`${getEdgePalette(item.ev_edge)}.500`} fontWeight="semibold">
-                  {item.ev_edge > 0 ? "+" : ""}
+                  {formatEdgeSignal(item.ev_edge)}
-                  {formatPercent(item.ev_edge * 100, 1)}
                 </Text>
                 <Text minW="48px">{formatPercent(item.calibrated_confidence, 0)}</Text>
                 <Badge colorPalette={getConfidenceBandPalette(item.confidence_interval?.band)} variant="subtle">
@@ -867,9 +883,23 @@ export default function PredictionCard({ prediction }: PredictionCardProps) {
             title={uiText("summary-title", "Tahmin Ozeti")}
             info={uiText(
               "summary-info",
-              "Kullanicinin once neyi oynayacagini, sonra nedenini anlamasi icin sade ozet.",
+              "Model sinyallerini ve belirsizlikleri sade sekilde gosterir.",
             )}
           />
+          <Box
+            p={3}
+            bg={useColorModeValue("orange.50", "orange.950")}
+            borderWidth="1px"
+            borderColor={useColorModeValue("orange.200", "orange.800")}
+            borderRadius="xl"
+          >
+            <HStack align="start" gap={2}>
+              <Icon as={LuShieldAlert} boxSize={4.5} color="orange.500" mt={0.5} />
+              <Text fontSize="sm" color="fg.muted" lineHeight="tall">
+                Bu bir model sinyalidir; kesin sonuç, garanti veya tutma yüzdesi değildir. Sinyal puanı maç içi varyans, kadro ve veri kalitesi nedeniyle yanılabilir.
+              </Text>
+            </HStack>
+          </Box>
 
           {recommendedPick ? (
             <Grid templateColumns={{ base: "1fr", xl: "1.4fr 1fr" }} gap={4}>
@@ -877,7 +907,7 @@ export default function PredictionCard({ prediction }: PredictionCardProps) {
                 <HStack justify="space-between" align="start" mb={4}>
                   <VStack align="start" gap={2}>
                     <Badge colorPalette="green" variant="solid" borderRadius="full">
-                      {uiText("main-recommendation", "Ana Oneri")}
+                      {uiText("main-recommendation", "Öne Çıkan Sinyal")}
                     </Badge>
                     <Text fontSize="2xl" fontWeight="bold">
                       {recommendedPick.pick}
@@ -903,13 +933,13 @@ export default function PredictionCard({ prediction }: PredictionCardProps) {
                   <MetricTile label={uiText("odds-label", "Oran")} value={formatOdds(recommendedPick.odds)} />
                   <MetricTile label="Guven Araligi" value={formatInterval(recommendedPick.confidence_interval)} />
                   <MetricTile
-                    label={uiText("edge-label", "Beklenen Avantaj (Edge)")}
+                    label={uiText("edge-label", "Teorik Avantaj")}
-                    value={`${recommendedPick.ev_edge > 0 ? "+" : ""}${formatPercent(recommendedPick.ev_edge * 100, 1)}`}
+                    value={formatEdgeSignal(recommendedPick.ev_edge)}
                     helper={uiText(
                       "edge-info",
-                      "Edge, model olasiligi ile piyasa olasiligi arasindaki farktir. Pozitifse model bu orani avantajli buluyor demektir.",
+                      "Model olasiligi ile piyasa olasiligi arasindaki teorik farktir; tutma garantisi veya kesin kazanc beklentisi degildir.",
                     )}
-                    accent={recommendedPick.ev_edge > 0 ? "green.500" : "red.500"}
+                    accent={`${getEdgePalette(recommendedPick.ev_edge)}.500`}
                   />
                   <MetricTile
                     label={uiText("stake-label", "Onerilen Miktar (Stake)")}
@@ -1028,7 +1058,7 @@ export default function PredictionCard({ prediction }: PredictionCardProps) {
       {recommendedPick ? (
         <PickCard
           pick={recommendedPick}
-          title={uiText("best-single-pick", "En iyi tekli secim")}
+          title={uiText("best-single-pick", "En güçlü sinyal")}
           resolveReason={resolveReason}
           palette="green"
           stakeFallback={prediction.bet_advice.suggested_stake_units}
@@ -1037,8 +1067,8 @@ export default function PredictionCard({ prediction }: PredictionCardProps) {
             confidence: uiText("confidence-label", "Guven"),
             odds: uiText("odds-label", "Oran"),
             recommendedStake: uiText("stake-label-short", "Stake"),
-            playScore: uiText("play-score-label", "Play Score"),
+            playScore: uiText("play-score-label", "Model Sinyali"),
-            playability: uiText("playability-label", "Oynanabilirlik"),
+            playability: uiText("playability-label", "Model sinyali"),
           }}
         />
       ) : null}
@@ -1064,8 +1094,8 @@ export default function PredictionCard({ prediction }: PredictionCardProps) {
                     confidence: uiText("confidence-label", "Guven"),
                     odds: uiText("odds-label", "Oran"),
                     recommendedStake: uiText("stake-label-short", "Stake"),
-                    playScore: uiText("play-score-label", "Play Score"),
+                    playScore: uiText("play-score-label", "Model Sinyali"),
-                    playability: uiText("playability-label", "Oynanabilirlik"),
+                    playability: uiText("playability-label", "Model sinyali"),
                   }}
                 />
               ))}

src/lib/api/predictions/types.ts

@@ -69,6 +69,13 @@ export interface MatchPickDto {
   edge: number;
   ev_edge: number;
   implied_prob: number;
+  model_probability?: number;
+  model_edge?: number;
+  calibrated_probability?: number;
+  odds_band_probability?: number;
+  odds_band_sample?: number;
+  odds_band_edge?: number;
+  odds_band_aligned?: boolean;
   play_score: number;
   playable: boolean;
   bet_grade: BetGrade;
@@ -76,6 +83,7 @@ export interface MatchPickDto {
   decision_reasons: string[];
   confidence_interval?: ConfidenceIntervalDto;
   signal_tier?: SignalTier;
+  is_guaranteed?: boolean;
 }
 
 export interface MatchBetAdviceDto {
@@ -99,6 +107,13 @@ export interface MatchBetSummaryItemDto {
   play_score: number;
   ev_edge: number;
   implied_prob: number;
+  model_probability?: number;
+  model_edge?: number;
+  calibrated_probability?: number;
+  odds_band_probability?: number;
+  odds_band_sample?: number;
+  odds_band_edge?: number;
+  odds_band_aligned?: boolean;
   odds: number;
   reasons: string[];
   confidence_interval?: ConfidenceIntervalDto;