iddaai-be/src/scripts/backfill-prediction-runs.ts

/**
 * ===================================================
 * HISTORICAL PREDICTION BACKFILL
 * ===================================================
 * Replays v28-pro-max (or any engine) against historical
 * finished matches to populate prediction_runs with
 * payload_summary + odds_snapshot + eventual_outcome +
 * unit_profit, so we can compute true ROI / calibration.
 *
 * Requires ENABLE_BACKFILL=true to prevent accidental run.
 *
 * Usage:
 *   ENABLE_BACKFILL=true npx ts-node --transpile-only \
 *     -r tsconfig-paths/register src/scripts/backfill-prediction-runs.ts \
 *     --from 2023-05-01 --to 2025-12-31 --limit 50000 --sport football
 */

import { PrismaClient } from "@prisma/client";
import axios from "axios";
import {
  resolveOutcomeForPick,
  computeUnitProfit,
  type MatchResult,
} from "../tasks/prediction-settlement.market-resolver";

const prisma = new PrismaClient();
const AI_ENGINE_URL = process.env.AI_ENGINE_URL || "http://127.0.0.1:3005";
const REQUEST_DELAY_MS = Number(process.env.BACKFILL_DELAY_MS ?? 300);
const CONCURRENCY = Number(process.env.BACKFILL_CONCURRENCY ?? 2);

function parseArgs() {
  const args = process.argv.slice(2);
  const opts: Record<string, string> = {};
  for (let i = 0; i < args.length; i += 2) {
    opts[args[i].replace(/^--/, "")] = args[i + 1];
  }
  return {
    from: opts.from ?? "2023-05-01",
    to: opts.to ?? new Date().toISOString().slice(0, 10),
    limit: Number(opts.limit ?? 50000),
    sport: (opts.sport ?? "football") as "football" | "basketball",
    engine: opts.engine ?? "v28-pro-max",
  };
}

function sleep(ms: number) {
  return new Promise((r) => setTimeout(r, ms));
}

async function runOne(matchId: string, engine: string): Promise<any | null> {
  try {
    const resp = await axios.post(
      `${AI_ENGINE_URL}/v20plus/analyze/${matchId}`,
      { engine_version: engine },
      { timeout: 25000 },
    );
    return resp.data;
  } catch (err: any) {
    console.error(
      `  ✗ ${matchId} ${err?.response?.status ?? ""} ${err?.message ?? ""}`,
    );
    return null;
  }
}

function buildPayloadSummary(payload: any): Record<string, any> {
  const main = payload?.main_pick ?? null;
  const value = payload?.value_pick ?? null;
  const advice = payload?.bet_advice ?? {};
  return {
    model_version: payload?.model_version,
    decision_trace_id: payload?.decision_trace_id ?? null,
    main_pick: main
      ? {
          market: main.market,
          pick: main.pick,
          playable: main.playable,
          bet_grade: main.bet_grade,
          calibrated_confidence: main.calibrated_confidence,
          ev_edge: main.ev_edge ?? 0,
          stake_units: main.stake_units,
          odds: main.odds ?? null,
        }
      : null,
    value_pick: value
      ? {
          market: value.market,
          pick: value.pick,
          playable: value.playable,
          calibrated_confidence: value.calibrated_confidence,
          ev_edge: value.ev_edge ?? 0,
          odds: value.odds ?? null,
        }
      : null,
    bet_advice: {
      playable: advice.playable ?? false,
      suggested_stake_units: advice.suggested_stake_units ?? 0,
    },
  };
}

function settleFromPayload(
  payload: any,
  result: MatchResult,
): { outcome: string; unitProfit: number } {
  const advice = payload?.bet_advice ?? {};
  if (advice.playable !== true) return { outcome: "NO_BET", unitProfit: 0 };

  const main = payload?.main_pick;
  if (!main || !main.playable) return { outcome: "NO_BET", unitProfit: 0 };

  const pickRef = {
    market: String(main.market),
    pick: String(main.pick),
    stake_units: Number(main.stake_units ?? advice.suggested_stake_units ?? 1),
    odds: Number(main.odds ?? 0) || null,
  };
  const won = resolveOutcomeForPick(pickRef, result);
  if (won === null) {
    return { outcome: "NO_BET", unitProfit: 0 };
  }
  return {
    outcome: `${won ? "WON" : "LOST"}:${pickRef.market}:${pickRef.pick}`,
    unitProfit: computeUnitProfit(won, pickRef.stake_units, pickRef.odds),
  };
}

async function main() {
  if (process.env.ENABLE_BACKFILL !== "true") {
    console.error(
      "✗ Backfill is gated. Re-run with ENABLE_BACKFILL=true to proceed.",
    );
    process.exit(1);
  }

  const opts = parseArgs();
  console.log("📦 Backfill prediction_runs");
  console.log(`   Range: ${opts.from} → ${opts.to}`);
  console.log(`   Sport: ${opts.sport}`);
  console.log(`   Engine: ${opts.engine}`);
  console.log(`   Limit: ${opts.limit}`);
  console.log(`   AI engine: ${AI_ENGINE_URL}`);

  const fromMs = BigInt(new Date(opts.from).getTime());
  const toMs = BigInt(new Date(opts.to).getTime());

  const matches = await prisma.match.findMany({
    where: {
      sport: opts.sport as any,
      status: "FT",
      scoreHome: { not: null },
      scoreAway: { not: null },
      mstUtc: { gte: fromMs, lte: toMs },
    },
    orderBy: { mstUtc: "asc" },
    take: opts.limit,
    select: {
      id: true,
      mstUtc: true,
      scoreHome: true,
      scoreAway: true,
      htScoreHome: true,
      htScoreAway: true,
    },
  });

  console.log(`\n   ${matches.length} finished matches in range\n`);

  let predicted = 0;
  let written = 0;
  let skipped = 0;

  for (let i = 0; i < matches.length; i += CONCURRENCY) {
    const batch = matches.slice(i, i + CONCURRENCY);
    await Promise.all(
      batch.map(async (m) => {
        const existing = await prisma.predictionRun.findFirst({
          where: { matchId: m.id, engineVersion: opts.engine },
          select: { id: true },
        });
        if (existing) {
          skipped += 1;
          return;
        }

        const payload = await runOne(m.id, opts.engine);
        if (!payload) return;
        predicted += 1;

        const summary = buildPayloadSummary(payload);
        const result: MatchResult = {
          scoreHome: m.scoreHome!,
          scoreAway: m.scoreAway!,
          htScoreHome: m.htScoreHome,
          htScoreAway: m.htScoreAway,
        };
        const settled = settleFromPayload(payload, result);

        await prisma.predictionRun.create({
          data: {
            matchId: m.id,
            engineVersion: payload?.model_version ?? opts.engine,
            decisionTraceId: payload?.decision_trace_id ?? null,
            oddsSnapshot: payload?.odds_snapshot ?? null,
            payloadSummary: summary,
            eventualOutcome: settled.outcome,
            unitProfit: settled.unitProfit,
          },
        });
        written += 1;
      }),
    );

    if ((i / CONCURRENCY) % 25 === 0) {
      console.log(
        `   [${i + batch.length}/${matches.length}] predicted=${predicted} written=${written} skipped=${skipped}`,
      );
    }
    await sleep(REQUEST_DELAY_MS);
  }

  console.log("\n✅ Backfill complete");
  console.log(`   Predicted: ${predicted}`);
  console.log(`   Written:   ${written}`);
  console.log(`   Skipped:   ${skipped}`);

  await prisma.$disconnect();
}

main().catch(async (err) => {
  console.error(err);
  await prisma.$disconnect();
  process.exit(1);
});