fahricansecer
988ee2f50d
betting_brain.py: - HARD_MIN_SAMPLES=50 floor for calibrator bypass - ev_edge < 0 + >= 0.20 hard vetoes - BTTS muted (grid search found no profitable config) - Per-market optimal envelopes (MS, OU25) - Score coherence filter: main_pick must agree with score prediction - HTFT reversal cross-check for MS picks feature_builder.py / data_loader.py: - Real home/away_position from data (was hardcoded 10) - Cup detection wired into UpsetEngine - _estimate_league_position with 300-day season filter New scripts: - diagnostic_backtest.py: per-bet diagnostic backtest with loss patterns - optimize_filters.py: grid search per-market optimal thresholds - analyze_backtest_csv.py: root-cause hypothesis testing on CSV - compare_backtests.py: side-by-side validation with verdict - test_score_coherence.py: smoke test for coherence filter (20/20 pass) Reports: - diagnostic_backtest_20260525_024437 (50-match smoke) - diagnostic_backtest_20260525_035649 (1000-match in-sample) - filter_optimization_patch.json (grid search winners per market) Social poster v3: - satori + resvg HTML/CSS rendering pipeline - Twemoji football/basketball + flag SVGs - caption SEO: 12 curated hashtags per post - image SEO: descriptive filenames + .json metadata sidecar - /health, /preview-png, /run-now endpoints Docs: - mds/SESSION_HANDOFF.md: full session state for cross-machine continuity - mds/SOCIAL_POSTER_SETUP.md: API keys + test commands Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
71 lines
3.0 KiB
Plaintext
71 lines
3.0 KiB
Plaintext
==============================================================================
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DIAGNOSTIC BACKTEST REPORT
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==============================================================================
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Generated: 2026-05-25T02:44:37
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Sample window: start=-3d, end=now
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Max matches: 50
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Excluded days: ['2026-04-29', '2026-05-03']
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OVERALL
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------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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n_total : 50
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n_playable_settled : 27
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wins : 15
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losses : 12
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hit_rate_pct : 55.56
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unit_profit : -0.862
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staked : 5.4
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roi_pct : -15.96
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PER MARKET
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------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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market n hit% profit roi%
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OU25 13 53.85 -0.6 -23.08
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BTTS 12 50.0 -0.392 -16.33
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MS 2 100.0 0.13 32.5
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PER CALIBRATED CONFIDENCE BAND
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------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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band n hit% roi%
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55-60 4 50.0 -23.75
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60-65 1 0.0 -100.0
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65-70 22 59.09 -10.73
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PER ODDS BAND
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------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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band n hit% roi%
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1.3-1.5 11 81.82 12.73
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1.5-1.8 10 50.0 -17.6
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1.8-2.2 6 16.67 -65.83
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LEAGUE vs CUP
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------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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league n= 27 hit=55.56% roi=-15.96%
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LOSS DIAGNOSTICS
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------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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total losses: 12
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total lost units: -2.4
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By market: [('BTTS', 6), ('OU25', 6)]
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Loss patterns (count, % of losses):
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high_htft_reversal_prob (>=0.20) 0 (0.0%)
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cup_match 0 (0.0%)
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low_league_reliability (<0.45) 0 (0.0%)
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v27_disagree 3 (25.0%)
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trap_market_flagged 4 (33.33%)
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low_calibrated_conf (<55) 0 (0.0%)
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high_odds_underdog (>=2.5) 0 (0.0%)
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low_data_quality (<0.55) 0 (0.0%)
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high_risk_level 3 (25.0%)
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inferred_features 12 (100.0%)
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Top betting_brain issues seen in losses:
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inferred_statistical_features 12
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triple_value_not_confirmed 12
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trap_market_market_overpriced 4
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Top betting_brain vetoes (in losses — i.e. veto fired but bet still went through value-sniper override):
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RECOMMENDATIONS
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------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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(none surfaced — sample too small or no clear pattern)
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============================================================================== |