iddaai-be/analyze-reversal-fast.ts

import { PrismaClient } from '@prisma/client';
import * as dotenv from 'dotenv';

dotenv.config();

(BigInt.prototype as any).toJSON = function () {
  return this.toString();
};

const prisma = new PrismaClient();

async function main() {
  console.log('🔍 ANALYZING HT/FT REVERSAL MATCHES (1/2 & 2/1)');
  console.log('='.repeat(80));

  // Use raw SQL for performance
  const matches: any[] = await prisma.$queryRaw`
    SELECT 
      m.id, m.ht_score_home, m.ht_score_away, m.score_home, m.score_away, m.mst_utc,
      ht.name as home_team, at.name as away_team, l.name as league
    FROM matches m
    LEFT JOIN teams ht ON ht.id = m.home_team_id
    LEFT JOIN teams at ON at.id = m.away_team_id
    LEFT JOIN leagues l ON l.id = m.league_id
    WHERE m.status = 'FT'
      AND m.ht_score_home IS NOT NULL
      AND m.ht_score_away IS NOT NULL
      AND m.score_home IS NOT NULL
      AND m.score_away IS NOT NULL
    ORDER BY m.mst_utc DESC
  `;

  console.log(`📊 Total completed matches: ${matches.length}`);

  let htftCounts: Record<string, number> = {
    '1/1': 0, '1/X': 0, '1/2': 0, 'X/1': 0, 'X/X': 0, 'X/2': 0, '2/1': 0, '2/X': 0, '2/2': 0
  };

  const reversals: any[] = [];
  
  for (const m of matches) {
    const htH = m.ht_score_home;
    const htA = m.ht_score_away;
    const ftH = m.score_home;
    const ftA = m.score_away;

    const htR = htH > htA ? '1' : htH === htA ? 'X' : '2';
    const ftR = ftH > ftA ? '1' : ftH === ftA ? 'X' : '2';
    const htft = `${htR}/${ftR}`;

    htftCounts[htft] = (htftCounts[htft] || 0) + 1;

    if (htft === '1/2' || htft === '2/1') {
      reversals.push({ ...m, htft, htH, htA, ftH, ftA });
    }
  }

  const total = matches.length;
  console.log('\n📊 HT/FT DISTRIBUTION:');
  for (const [key, count] of Object.entries(htftCounts)) {
    const pct = (count / total * 100).toFixed(2);
    const marker = (key === '1/2' || key === '2/1') ? ' ⚠️ REVERSAL' : '';
    console.log(`   ${key}: ${count} (${pct}%)${marker}`);
  }

  console.log(`\n⚠️  TOTAL REVERSALS: ${reversals.length} (${(reversals.length / total * 100).toFixed(2)}%)`);

  // ANALYSIS 1: By League
  console.log('\n📈 LEAGUE DISTRIBUTION (min 100 matches):');
  const leagueMap: Record<string, { total: number, rev: number }> = {};
  for (const m of matches) {
    const league = m.league || 'Unknown';
    if (!leagueMap[league]) leagueMap[league] = { total: 0, rev: 0 };
    leagueMap[league].total++;

    const htH = m.ht_score_home;
    const htA = m.ht_score_away;
    const ftH = m.score_home;
    const ftA = m.score_away;
    const htR = htH > htA ? '1' : htH === htA ? 'X' : '2';
    const ftR = ftH > ftA ? '1' : ftH === ftA ? 'X' : '2';
    if ((htR === '1' && ftR === '2') || (htR === '2' && ftR === '1')) {
      leagueMap[league].rev++;
    }
  }

  const topLeagues = Object.entries(leagueMap)
    .filter(([_, v]) => v.total >= 100 && v.rev > 0)
    .sort((a, b) => (b[1].rev / b[1].total) - (a[1].rev / a[1].total))
    .slice(0, 15);

  console.log('\nTop 15 leagues by reversal rate:');
  for (const [league, data] of topLeagues) {
    const rate = (data.rev / data.total * 100).toFixed(2);
    console.log(`   ${league}: ${data.rev}/${data.total} (${rate}%)`);
  }

  // ANALYSIS 2: Score patterns
  console.log('\n📈 HT SCORE PATTERNS IN REVERSALS:');
  const htScoreMap: Record<string, number> = {};
  for (const m of reversals) {
    const key = `${m.htH}-${m.htA}`;
    htScoreMap[key] = (htScoreMap[key] || 0) + 1;
  }

  Object.entries(htScoreMap)
    .sort((a, b) => b[1] - a[1])
    .slice(0, 10)
    .forEach(([score, count]) => {
      console.log(`   HT ${score}: ${count} matches`);
    });

  console.log('\n📈 FT SCORE PATTERNS IN REVERSALS:');
  const ftScoreMap: Record<string, number> = {};
  for (const m of reversals) {
    const key = `${m.ftH}-${m.ftA}`;
    ftScoreMap[key] = (ftScoreMap[key] || 0) + 1;
  }

  Object.entries(ftScoreMap)
    .sort((a, b) => b[1] - a[1])
    .slice(0, 10)
    .forEach(([score, count]) => {
      console.log(`   FT ${score}: ${count} matches`);
    });

  // ANALYSIS 3: Comeback magnitude
  console.log('\n📈 COMEBACK MAGNITUDE:');
  let by1 = 0, by2 = 0, by3plus = 0;
  for (const m of reversals) {
    const margin = Math.abs((m.ftH - m.ftA));
    if (margin === 1) by1++;
    else if (margin === 2) by2++;
    else by3plus++;
  }

  console.log(`   By 1 goal: ${by1} (${(by1/reversals.length*100).toFixed(1)}%)`);
  console.log(`   By 2 goals: ${by2} (${(by2/reversals.length*100).toFixed(1)}%)`);
  console.log(`   By 3+ goals: ${by3plus} (${(by3plus/reversals.length*100).toFixed(1)}%) ⚠️`);

  // Show extreme comebacks
  const extreme = reversals
    .filter(m => Math.abs(m.ftH - m.ftA) >= 2)
    .sort((a, b) => Math.abs(b.ftH - b.ftA) - Math.abs(a.ftH - a.ftA))
    .slice(0, 10);

  console.log('\nTop 10 extreme comebacks (2+ goal margin):');
  for (const m of extreme) {
    const diff = Math.abs(m.ftH - m.ftA);
    console.log(`   ${m.league}: ${m.home_team} vs ${m.away_team} | HT: ${m.htH}-${m.htA} => FT: ${m.ftH}-${m.ftA} (margin: ${diff})`);
  }

  // ANALYSIS 4: 1/2 vs 2/1 split
  const rev_1_2 = reversals.filter(m => m.htft === '1/2');
  const rev_2_1 = reversals.filter(m => m.htft === '2/1');

  console.log('\n📈 REVERSAL TYPE SPLIT:');
  console.log(`   1/2 (Home leads HT, Away wins FT): ${rev_1_2.length} (${(rev_1_2.length/reversals.length*100).toFixed(1)}%)`);
  console.log(`   2/1 (Away leads HT, Home wins FT): ${rev_2_1.length} (${(rev_2_1.length/reversals.length*100).toFixed(1)}%)`);

  // Get odds for a sample of reversals
  console.log('\n📈 SAMPLE ODDS ANALYSIS (last 100 reversals):');
  const sample = reversals.slice(0, 100);
  let withOdds = 0;
  let favLostCount = 0;

  for (const m of sample) {
    const odds: any = await prisma.$queryRaw`
      SELECT oc.name, os.name as selection, os.odd_value
      FROM odd_categories oc
      JOIN odd_selections os ON os.odd_category_db_id = oc.db_id
      WHERE oc.match_id = ${m.id}
    `;

    if (odds.length === 0) continue;
    withOdds++;

    let msHome: number | null = null;
    let msAway: number | null = null;

    for (const o of odds) {
      const cat = (o.name || '').toLowerCase();
      if (cat.includes('maç sonucu')) {
        const sel = (o.selection || '').toLowerCase();
        if (sel === '1') msHome = parseFloat(o.odd_value.toString());
        else if (sel === '2') msAway = parseFloat(o.odd_value.toString());
      }
    }

    if (msHome && msAway) {
      const favWasHome = msHome < msAway;
      const actualWinner = m.ftH > m.ftA ? '1' : m.ftA > m.ftH ? '2' : 'X';
      
      if ((favWasHome && actualWinner === '2') || (!favWasHome && actualWinner === '1')) {
        favLostCount++;
      }
    }
  }

  console.log(`   Reversals with odds: ${withOdds}/${sample.length}`);
  if (withOdds > 0) {
    console.log(`   Favorite lost: ${favLostCount}/${withOdds} (${(favLostCount/withOdds*100).toFixed(1)}%) ⚠️`);
  }

  console.log('\n' + '='.repeat(80));
  console.log('✅ ANALYSIS COMPLETE');
  console.log('='.repeat(80));

  await prisma.$disconnect();
}

main().catch(console.error);