675 lines
23 KiB
Python
675 lines
23 KiB
Python
"""
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V25 Ensemble Predictor - NO TARGET LEAKAGE
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===========================================
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Multi-model ensemble for match prediction using XGBoost and LightGBM.
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Features:
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- 73 engineered features (NO target leakage)
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- Market-specific models (MS, OU25, BTTS)
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- Weighted ensemble predictions
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- Value bet detection
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"""
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import os
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import json
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import numpy as np
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import pandas as pd
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from typing import Dict, List, Optional, Any
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from dataclasses import dataclass, field
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import xgboost as xgb
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import lightgbm as lgb
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# CatBoost is optional
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try:
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from catboost import CatBoostClassifier
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CATBOOST_AVAILABLE = True
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except ImportError:
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CatBoostClassifier = None
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CATBOOST_AVAILABLE = False
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# Paths
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MODELS_DIR = os.path.join(os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__)), 'v25')
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@dataclass
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class MarketPrediction:
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"""Prediction for a single betting market."""
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market_type: str
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pick: str
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probability: float
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confidence: float
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odds: float = 0.0
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is_value_bet: bool = False
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edge: float = 0.0
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def to_dict(self) -> dict:
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return {
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'market_type': self.market_type,
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'pick': self.pick,
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'probability': round(self.probability * 100, 1),
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'confidence': round(self.confidence, 1),
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'odds': self.odds,
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'is_value_bet': self.is_value_bet,
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'edge': round(self.edge * 100, 1),
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}
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@dataclass
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class ValueBet:
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"""Detected value bet opportunity."""
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market_type: str
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pick: str
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probability: float
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odds: float
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edge: float
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confidence: float
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def to_dict(self) -> dict:
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return {
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'market_type': self.market_type,
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'pick': self.pick,
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'probability': round(self.probability * 100, 1),
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'odds': self.odds,
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'edge': round(self.edge * 100, 1),
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'confidence': round(self.confidence, 1),
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}
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@dataclass
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class MatchPrediction:
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"""Complete match prediction with all markets."""
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match_id: str
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home_team: str
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away_team: str
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# MS predictions
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home_prob: float = 0.0
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draw_prob: float = 0.0
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away_prob: float = 0.0
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ms_pick: str = ''
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ms_confidence: float = 0.0
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# OU25 predictions
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over_prob: float = 0.0
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under_prob: float = 0.0
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ou25_pick: str = ''
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ou25_confidence: float = 0.0
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# BTTS predictions
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btts_yes_prob: float = 0.0
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btts_no_prob: float = 0.0
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btts_pick: str = ''
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btts_confidence: float = 0.0
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# Value bets
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value_bets: List[ValueBet] = field(default_factory=list)
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def to_dict(self) -> dict:
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return {
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'match_id': self.match_id,
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'home_team': self.home_team,
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'away_team': self.away_team,
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'ms': {
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'home_prob': round(self.home_prob * 100, 1),
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'draw_prob': round(self.draw_prob * 100, 1),
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'away_prob': round(self.away_prob * 100, 1),
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'pick': self.ms_pick,
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'confidence': round(self.ms_confidence, 1),
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},
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'ou25': {
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'over_prob': round(self.over_prob * 100, 1),
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'under_prob': round(self.under_prob * 100, 1),
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'pick': self.ou25_pick,
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'confidence': round(self.ou25_confidence, 1),
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},
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'btts': {
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'yes_prob': round(self.btts_yes_prob * 100, 1),
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'no_prob': round(self.btts_no_prob * 100, 1),
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'pick': self.btts_pick,
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'confidence': round(self.btts_confidence, 1),
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},
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'value_bets': [vb.to_dict() for vb in self.value_bets],
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}
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class V25Predictor:
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"""
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V25 Ensemble Predictor - NO TARGET LEAKAGE
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Uses market-specific XGBoost and LightGBM models.
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Each market (MS, OU25, BTTS) has its own trained models.
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"""
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# Feature columns — loaded dynamically from feature_cols.json to stay
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# in sync with the trained models. The hardcoded list below is only a
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# fallback in case the JSON file is missing.
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_FALLBACK_FEATURE_COLS = [
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# ELO Features (8)
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'home_overall_elo', 'away_overall_elo', 'elo_diff',
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'home_home_elo', 'away_away_elo',
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'home_form_elo', 'away_form_elo', 'form_elo_diff',
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# Form Features (12)
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'home_goals_avg', 'home_conceded_avg',
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'away_goals_avg', 'away_conceded_avg',
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'home_clean_sheet_rate', 'away_clean_sheet_rate',
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'home_scoring_rate', 'away_scoring_rate',
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'home_winning_streak', 'away_winning_streak',
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'home_unbeaten_streak', 'away_unbeaten_streak',
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# H2H Features (6)
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'h2h_total_matches', 'h2h_home_win_rate', 'h2h_draw_rate',
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'h2h_avg_goals', 'h2h_btts_rate', 'h2h_over25_rate',
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# Team Stats Features (8)
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'home_avg_possession', 'away_avg_possession',
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'home_avg_shots_on_target', 'away_avg_shots_on_target',
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'home_shot_conversion', 'away_shot_conversion',
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'home_avg_corners', 'away_avg_corners',
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# Odds Features (24)
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'odds_ms_h', 'odds_ms_d', 'odds_ms_a',
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'implied_home', 'implied_draw', 'implied_away',
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'odds_ht_ms_h', 'odds_ht_ms_d', 'odds_ht_ms_a',
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'odds_ou05_o', 'odds_ou05_u',
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'odds_ou15_o', 'odds_ou15_u',
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'odds_ou25_o', 'odds_ou25_u',
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'odds_ou35_o', 'odds_ou35_u',
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'odds_ht_ou05_o', 'odds_ht_ou05_u',
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'odds_ht_ou15_o', 'odds_ht_ou15_u',
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'odds_btts_y', 'odds_btts_n',
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# Odds Presence Flags (20)
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'odds_ms_h_present', 'odds_ms_d_present', 'odds_ms_a_present',
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'odds_ht_ms_h_present', 'odds_ht_ms_d_present', 'odds_ht_ms_a_present',
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'odds_ou05_o_present', 'odds_ou05_u_present',
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'odds_ou15_o_present', 'odds_ou15_u_present',
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'odds_ou25_o_present', 'odds_ou25_u_present',
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'odds_ou35_o_present', 'odds_ou35_u_present',
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'odds_ht_ou05_o_present', 'odds_ht_ou05_u_present',
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'odds_ht_ou15_o_present', 'odds_ht_ou15_u_present',
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'odds_btts_y_present', 'odds_btts_n_present',
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# League Features (4)
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'home_xga', 'away_xga',
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'league_avg_goals', 'league_zero_goal_rate',
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# Upset Engine (4)
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'upset_atmosphere', 'upset_motivation', 'upset_fatigue', 'upset_potential',
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# Referee Engine (5)
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'referee_home_bias', 'referee_avg_goals', 'referee_cards_total',
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'referee_avg_yellow', 'referee_experience',
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# Momentum Engine (3)
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'home_momentum_score', 'away_momentum_score', 'momentum_diff',
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# Squad Features (9)
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'home_squad_quality', 'away_squad_quality', 'squad_diff',
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'home_key_players', 'away_key_players',
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'home_missing_impact', 'away_missing_impact',
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'home_goals_form', 'away_goals_form',
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]
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@staticmethod
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def _load_feature_cols() -> list:
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"""Load feature columns from feature_cols.json, falling back to hardcoded list."""
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feature_json = os.path.join(MODELS_DIR, 'feature_cols.json')
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try:
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if os.path.exists(feature_json):
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with open(feature_json, 'r', encoding='utf-8') as f:
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cols = json.load(f)
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if isinstance(cols, list) and len(cols) > 0:
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print(f"[V25] Loaded {len(cols)} feature columns from feature_cols.json")
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return cols
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except Exception as e:
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print(f"[V25] Warning: could not load feature_cols.json: {e}")
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print(f"[V25] Using fallback feature columns ({len(V25Predictor._FALLBACK_FEATURE_COLS)} features)")
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return V25Predictor._FALLBACK_FEATURE_COLS
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# Model weights for ensemble
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DEFAULT_WEIGHTS = {
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'xgb': 0.50,
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'lgb': 0.50,
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}
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def __init__(self, models_dir: Optional[str] = None):
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"""
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Initialize V25 Predictor.
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Args:
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models_dir: Directory containing model files. Defaults to v25/ directory.
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"""
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self.models_dir = models_dir or MODELS_DIR
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self.models = {} # market -> {'xgb': model, 'lgb': model}
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self._loaded = False
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self.FEATURE_COLS = self._load_feature_cols()
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# All trained market models available in V25
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ALL_MARKETS = [
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'ms', 'ou25', 'btts', # Core markets
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'ou15', 'ou35', # Additional OU lines
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'ht_result', 'ht_ou05', 'ht_ou15', # HT markets
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'htft', # HT/FT combo
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'cards_ou45', # Cards market
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'handicap_ms', # Handicap
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'odd_even', # Odd/Even goals
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]
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# Multi-class markets (output > 2 classes)
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MULTICLASS_MARKETS = {'ms', 'ht_result', 'htft', 'handicap_ms'}
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def load_models(self) -> bool:
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"""Load all market-specific models from disk."""
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try:
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loaded_count = 0
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for market in self.ALL_MARKETS:
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self.models[market] = {}
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# Load XGBoost (read content in Python to avoid non-ASCII path issues)
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xgb_path = os.path.join(self.models_dir, f'xgb_v25_{market}.json')
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if os.path.exists(xgb_path) and os.path.getsize(xgb_path) > 0:
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with open(xgb_path, 'r', encoding='utf-8') as f:
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xgb_content = f.read()
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booster = xgb.Booster()
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booster.load_model(bytearray(xgb_content, 'utf-8'))
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self.models[market]['xgb'] = booster
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loaded_count += 1
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# Load LightGBM (read content in Python to avoid non-ASCII path issues)
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lgb_path = os.path.join(self.models_dir, f'lgb_v25_{market}.txt')
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if os.path.exists(lgb_path) and os.path.getsize(lgb_path) > 0:
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with open(lgb_path, 'r', encoding='utf-8') as f:
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model_str = f.read()
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self.models[market]['lgb'] = lgb.Booster(model_str=model_str)
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loaded_count += 1
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# Remove empty entries
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if not self.models[market]:
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del self.models[market]
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print(f"[V25] Loaded {loaded_count} model files across {len(self.models)} markets: {list(self.models.keys())}")
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self._loaded = loaded_count > 0
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return self._loaded
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except Exception as e:
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print(f"[ERROR] Error loading models: {e}")
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import traceback
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traceback.print_exc()
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return False
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def _ensure_loaded(self):
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"""Ensure models are loaded before prediction."""
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if not self._loaded:
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if not self.load_models():
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raise RuntimeError("Failed to load V25 models")
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def _prepare_features(self, features: Dict[str, float]) -> pd.DataFrame:
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"""Prepare feature vector for prediction."""
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X = pd.DataFrame([{col: features.get(col, 0.0) for col in self.FEATURE_COLS}])
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return X
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def predict_ms(self, features: Dict[str, float]) -> tuple:
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"""
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Predict match result (1X2).
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Returns:
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(home_prob, draw_prob, away_prob)
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"""
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self._ensure_loaded()
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X = self._prepare_features(features)
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probs = []
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# XGBoost
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if 'xgb' in self.models.get('ms', {}):
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dmat = xgb.DMatrix(X)
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xgb_proba = self.models['ms']['xgb'].predict(dmat)
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if len(xgb_proba.shape) == 1:
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xgb_proba = np.array([xgb_proba])
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probs.append(xgb_proba[0] * self.DEFAULT_WEIGHTS['xgb'])
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# LightGBM
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if 'lgb' in self.models.get('ms', {}):
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lgb_proba = self.models['ms']['lgb'].predict(X)
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if len(lgb_proba.shape) == 2:
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probs.append(lgb_proba[0] * self.DEFAULT_WEIGHTS['lgb'])
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if not probs:
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return 0.33, 0.33, 0.33
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ensemble_proba = np.sum(probs, axis=0)
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ensemble_proba = ensemble_proba / ensemble_proba.sum()
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return float(ensemble_proba[0]), float(ensemble_proba[1]), float(ensemble_proba[2])
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def predict_ou25(self, features: Dict[str, float]) -> tuple:
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"""
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Predict Over/Under 2.5 goals.
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Returns:
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(over_prob, under_prob)
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"""
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self._ensure_loaded()
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X = self._prepare_features(features)
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probs = []
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# XGBoost
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if 'xgb' in self.models.get('ou25', {}):
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dmat = xgb.DMatrix(X)
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xgb_proba = self.models['ou25']['xgb'].predict(dmat)
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if isinstance(xgb_proba, np.ndarray) and len(xgb_proba.shape) == 1:
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probs.append(xgb_proba[0])
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# LightGBM
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if 'lgb' in self.models.get('ou25', {}):
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lgb_proba = self.models['ou25']['lgb'].predict(X)
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if isinstance(lgb_proba, np.ndarray):
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probs.append(lgb_proba[0])
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if not probs:
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return 0.5, 0.5
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# Average probability
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avg_prob = np.mean(probs)
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return float(avg_prob), float(1 - avg_prob)
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def predict_btts(self, features: Dict[str, float]) -> tuple:
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"""
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Predict Both Teams To Score.
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Returns:
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(yes_prob, no_prob)
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"""
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self._ensure_loaded()
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X = self._prepare_features(features)
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probs = []
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# XGBoost
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if 'xgb' in self.models.get('btts', {}):
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dmat = xgb.DMatrix(X)
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xgb_proba = self.models['btts']['xgb'].predict(dmat)
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if isinstance(xgb_proba, np.ndarray) and len(xgb_proba.shape) == 1:
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probs.append(xgb_proba[0])
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# LightGBM
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if 'lgb' in self.models.get('btts', {}):
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lgb_proba = self.models['btts']['lgb'].predict(X)
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if isinstance(lgb_proba, np.ndarray):
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probs.append(lgb_proba[0])
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if not probs:
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return 0.5, 0.5
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# Average probability
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avg_prob = np.mean(probs)
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return float(avg_prob), float(1 - avg_prob)
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def predict_market(self, market: str, features: Dict[str, float]) -> Optional[np.ndarray]:
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"""
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Generic prediction for any loaded market.
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Args:
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market: Market key (e.g. 'ht_result', 'htft', 'cards_ou45')
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features: Feature dictionary.
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Returns:
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numpy array of probabilities.
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For binary markets: [positive_prob]
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For multi-class markets: [class0_prob, class1_prob, ...]
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"""
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self._ensure_loaded()
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if market not in self.models:
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return None
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X = self._prepare_features(features)
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probs = []
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weights = []
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is_multiclass = market in self.MULTICLASS_MARKETS
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# XGBoost
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if 'xgb' in self.models[market]:
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dmat = xgb.DMatrix(X)
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xgb_proba = self.models[market]['xgb'].predict(dmat)
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if isinstance(xgb_proba, np.ndarray):
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if is_multiclass and len(xgb_proba.shape) == 2:
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probs.append(xgb_proba[0])
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elif is_multiclass and len(xgb_proba.shape) == 1:
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probs.append(xgb_proba)
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else:
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probs.append(np.array([xgb_proba[0]]))
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weights.append(self.DEFAULT_WEIGHTS['xgb'])
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# LightGBM
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if 'lgb' in self.models[market]:
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lgb_proba = self.models[market]['lgb'].predict(X)
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if isinstance(lgb_proba, np.ndarray):
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if is_multiclass and len(lgb_proba.shape) == 2:
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probs.append(lgb_proba[0])
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elif is_multiclass and len(lgb_proba.shape) == 1:
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probs.append(lgb_proba)
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else:
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probs.append(np.array([lgb_proba[0]]))
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weights.append(self.DEFAULT_WEIGHTS['lgb'])
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if not probs:
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return None
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# Weighted average
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if len(probs) == 1:
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return probs[0]
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total_w = sum(weights[:len(probs)])
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result = np.zeros_like(probs[0])
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for p, w in zip(probs, weights):
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result += p * (w / total_w)
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# Normalize multi-class
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if is_multiclass and result.sum() > 0:
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result = result / result.sum()
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return result
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def has_market(self, market: str) -> bool:
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"""Check if a specific market model is loaded."""
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return market in self.models
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|
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def predict_match(
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self,
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match_id: str,
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home_team: str,
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|
away_team: str,
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features: Dict[str, float],
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|
odds: Optional[Dict[str, float]] = None,
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|
) -> MatchPrediction:
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|
"""
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|
Predict all markets for a match.
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|
|
|
Args:
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match_id: Match identifier.
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home_team: Home team name.
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|
away_team: Away team name.
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|
features: Feature dictionary.
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|
odds: Optional odds dictionary for value bet detection.
|
|
|
|
Returns:
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|
MatchPrediction object.
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|
"""
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|
# Get predictions for each market
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|
home_prob, draw_prob, away_prob = self.predict_ms(features)
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over_prob, under_prob = self.predict_ou25(features)
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|
btts_yes_prob, btts_no_prob = self.predict_btts(features)
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|
|
|
# Determine picks
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|
ms_probs = {'1': home_prob, 'X': draw_prob, '2': away_prob}
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ms_pick = max(ms_probs, key=ms_probs.__getitem__)
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|
ms_confidence = ms_probs[ms_pick] * 100
|
|
|
|
ou25_probs = {'Over': over_prob, 'Under': under_prob}
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|
ou25_pick = max(ou25_probs, key=ou25_probs.__getitem__)
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|
ou25_confidence = ou25_probs[ou25_pick] * 100
|
|
|
|
btts_probs = {'Yes': btts_yes_prob, 'No': btts_no_prob}
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|
btts_pick = max(btts_probs, key=btts_probs.__getitem__)
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|
btts_confidence = btts_probs[btts_pick] * 100
|
|
|
|
# Create prediction
|
|
prediction = MatchPrediction(
|
|
match_id=match_id,
|
|
home_team=home_team,
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|
away_team=away_team,
|
|
home_prob=home_prob,
|
|
draw_prob=draw_prob,
|
|
away_prob=away_prob,
|
|
ms_pick=ms_pick,
|
|
ms_confidence=ms_confidence,
|
|
over_prob=over_prob,
|
|
under_prob=under_prob,
|
|
ou25_pick=ou25_pick,
|
|
ou25_confidence=ou25_confidence,
|
|
btts_yes_prob=btts_yes_prob,
|
|
btts_no_prob=btts_no_prob,
|
|
btts_pick=btts_pick,
|
|
btts_confidence=btts_confidence,
|
|
)
|
|
|
|
# Detect value bets
|
|
if odds:
|
|
prediction.value_bets = self._detect_value_bets(
|
|
prediction, odds, home_prob, draw_prob, away_prob,
|
|
over_prob, under_prob, btts_yes_prob, btts_no_prob
|
|
)
|
|
|
|
return prediction
|
|
|
|
def _detect_value_bets(
|
|
self,
|
|
prediction: MatchPrediction,
|
|
odds: Dict[str, float],
|
|
home_prob: float,
|
|
draw_prob: float,
|
|
away_prob: float,
|
|
over_prob: float,
|
|
under_prob: float,
|
|
btts_yes_prob: float,
|
|
btts_no_prob: float,
|
|
) -> List[ValueBet]:
|
|
"""Detect value bets based on model vs market odds."""
|
|
value_bets = []
|
|
min_edge = 0.05 # 5% minimum edge
|
|
|
|
# MS value bets
|
|
if 'ms_h' in odds and odds['ms_h'] > 0:
|
|
implied = 1 / odds['ms_h']
|
|
edge = home_prob - implied
|
|
if edge > min_edge:
|
|
value_bets.append(ValueBet(
|
|
market_type='MS',
|
|
pick='1',
|
|
probability=home_prob,
|
|
odds=odds['ms_h'],
|
|
edge=edge,
|
|
confidence=home_prob * 100,
|
|
))
|
|
|
|
if 'ms_d' in odds and odds['ms_d'] > 0:
|
|
implied = 1 / odds['ms_d']
|
|
edge = draw_prob - implied
|
|
if edge > min_edge:
|
|
value_bets.append(ValueBet(
|
|
market_type='MS',
|
|
pick='X',
|
|
probability=draw_prob,
|
|
odds=odds['ms_d'],
|
|
edge=edge,
|
|
confidence=draw_prob * 100,
|
|
))
|
|
|
|
if 'ms_a' in odds and odds['ms_a'] > 0:
|
|
implied = 1 / odds['ms_a']
|
|
edge = away_prob - implied
|
|
if edge > min_edge:
|
|
value_bets.append(ValueBet(
|
|
market_type='MS',
|
|
pick='2',
|
|
probability=away_prob,
|
|
odds=odds['ms_a'],
|
|
edge=edge,
|
|
confidence=away_prob * 100,
|
|
))
|
|
|
|
# OU25 value bets
|
|
if 'ou25_o' in odds and odds['ou25_o'] > 0:
|
|
implied = 1 / odds['ou25_o']
|
|
edge = over_prob - implied
|
|
if edge > min_edge:
|
|
value_bets.append(ValueBet(
|
|
market_type='OU25',
|
|
pick='Over',
|
|
probability=over_prob,
|
|
odds=odds['ou25_o'],
|
|
edge=edge,
|
|
confidence=over_prob * 100,
|
|
))
|
|
|
|
if 'ou25_u' in odds and odds['ou25_u'] > 0:
|
|
implied = 1 / odds['ou25_u']
|
|
edge = under_prob - implied
|
|
if edge > min_edge:
|
|
value_bets.append(ValueBet(
|
|
market_type='OU25',
|
|
pick='Under',
|
|
probability=under_prob,
|
|
odds=odds['ou25_u'],
|
|
edge=edge,
|
|
confidence=under_prob * 100,
|
|
))
|
|
|
|
# BTTS value bets
|
|
if 'btts_y' in odds and odds['btts_y'] > 0:
|
|
implied = 1 / odds['btts_y']
|
|
edge = btts_yes_prob - implied
|
|
if edge > min_edge:
|
|
value_bets.append(ValueBet(
|
|
market_type='BTTS',
|
|
pick='Yes',
|
|
probability=btts_yes_prob,
|
|
odds=odds['btts_y'],
|
|
edge=edge,
|
|
confidence=btts_yes_prob * 100,
|
|
))
|
|
|
|
if 'btts_n' in odds and odds['btts_n'] > 0:
|
|
implied = 1 / odds['btts_n']
|
|
edge = btts_no_prob - implied
|
|
if edge > min_edge:
|
|
value_bets.append(ValueBet(
|
|
market_type='BTTS',
|
|
pick='No',
|
|
probability=btts_no_prob,
|
|
odds=odds['btts_n'],
|
|
edge=edge,
|
|
confidence=btts_no_prob * 100,
|
|
))
|
|
|
|
return value_bets
|
|
|
|
|
|
# Singleton instance
|
|
_v25_predictor: Optional[V25Predictor] = None
|
|
|
|
|
|
def get_v25_predictor() -> V25Predictor:
|
|
"""Get or create V25 predictor instance."""
|
|
global _v25_predictor
|
|
if _v25_predictor is None:
|
|
_v25_predictor = V25Predictor()
|
|
_v25_predictor.load_models()
|
|
return _v25_predictor |