137 lines
7.0 KiB
Python
137 lines
7.0 KiB
Python
"""
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VQWEN Full Backtest
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===================
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Tests all 3 VQWEN models (MS, OU25, BTTS) on 1000 historical matches.
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"""
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import os
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import sys
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import json
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import pickle
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import pandas as pd
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import numpy as np
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import psycopg2
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from psycopg2.extras import RealDictCursor
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AI_DIR = os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__))
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ROOT_DIR = os.path.dirname(AI_DIR)
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PROJECT_ROOT = os.path.dirname(ROOT_DIR)
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def get_clean_dsn() -> str:
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return "postgresql://suggestbet:SuGGesT2026SecuRe@localhost:15432/boilerplate_db"
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def run_vqwen_backtest():
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print("🧠 VQWEN FULL BACKTEST")
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print("="*60)
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# Load Models
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mdir = os.path.join(ROOT_DIR, 'models', 'vqwen')
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try:
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with open(os.path.join(mdir, 'vqwen_ms.pkl'), 'rb') as f: model_ms = pickle.load(f)
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with open(os.path.join(mdir, 'vqwen_ou25.pkl'), 'rb') as f: model_ou = pickle.load(f)
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with open(os.path.join(mdir, 'vqwen_btts.pkl'), 'rb') as f: model_btts = pickle.load(f)
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print("✅ VQWEN MS, OU25, BTTS modelleri yüklendi.")
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except Exception as e:
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print(f"❌ Model hatası: {e}")
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return
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with open(os.path.join(PROJECT_ROOT, "top_leagues.json"), 'r') as f:
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league_ids = tuple(str(lid) for lid in json.load(f))
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dsn = get_clean_dsn()
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conn = psycopg2.connect(dsn)
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cur = conn.cursor(cursor_factory=RealDictCursor)
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cur.execute("""
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SELECT m.id, m.home_team_id, m.away_team_id, m.score_home, m.score_away,
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t1.name as home_team, t2.name as away_team,
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(SELECT os.odd_value FROM odd_categories oc JOIN odd_selections os ON os.odd_category_db_id = oc.db_id WHERE oc.match_id = m.id AND oc.name ILIKE 'Maç Sonucu' AND os.name = '1' LIMIT 1) as oh,
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(SELECT os.odd_value FROM odd_categories oc JOIN odd_selections os ON os.odd_category_db_id = oc.db_id WHERE oc.match_id = m.id AND oc.name ILIKE 'Maç Sonucu' AND os.name = 'X' LIMIT 1) as od,
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(SELECT os.odd_value FROM odd_categories oc JOIN odd_selections os ON os.odd_category_db_id = oc.db_id WHERE oc.match_id = m.id AND oc.name ILIKE 'Maç Sonucu' AND os.name = '2' LIMIT 1) as oa,
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COALESCE((SELECT AVG(CASE WHEN m2.home_team_id = m.home_team_id AND m2.score_home > m2.score_away THEN 3 WHEN m2.home_team_id = m.home_team_id AND m2.score_home = m2.score_away THEN 1 ELSE 0 END) FROM matches m2 WHERE m2.home_team_id = m.home_team_id AND m2.status = 'FT' AND m2.mst_utc < m.mst_utc LIMIT 5), 0) as h_form,
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COALESCE((SELECT AVG(CASE WHEN m2.away_team_id = m.away_team_id AND m2.score_away > m2.score_home THEN 3 WHEN m2.away_team_id = m.away_team_id AND m2.score_away = m2.score_home THEN 1 ELSE 0 END) FROM matches m2 WHERE m2.away_team_id = m.away_team_id AND m2.status = 'FT' AND m2.mst_utc < m.mst_utc LIMIT 5), 0) as a_form,
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COALESCE((SELECT AVG(m2.score_home) FROM matches m2 WHERE m2.home_team_id = m.home_team_id AND m2.status = 'FT' LIMIT 10), 1.2) as h_sc,
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COALESCE((SELECT AVG(m2.score_away) FROM matches m2 WHERE m2.away_team_id = m.home_team_id AND m2.status = 'FT' LIMIT 10), 1.2) as h_co,
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COALESCE((SELECT AVG(m2.score_away) FROM matches m2 WHERE m2.away_team_id = m.away_team_id AND m2.status = 'FT' LIMIT 10), 1.2) as a_sc,
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COALESCE((SELECT AVG(m2.score_home) FROM matches m2 WHERE m2.home_team_id = m.away_team_id AND m2.status = 'FT' LIMIT 10), 1.2) as a_co
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FROM matches m
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LEFT JOIN teams t1 ON m.home_team_id = t1.id
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LEFT JOIN teams t2 ON m.away_team_id = t2.id
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WHERE m.league_id IN %s AND m.status = 'FT' AND m.score_home IS NOT NULL
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ORDER BY m.mst_utc DESC
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LIMIT 1000
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""", (league_ids,))
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rows = cur.fetchall()
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print(f"📊 {len(rows)} maç analiz ediliyor...")
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results = {'ms': {'bet': 0, 'won': 0, 'profit': 0}, 'ou25': {'bet': 0, 'won': 0, 'profit': 0}, 'btts': {'bet': 0, 'won': 0, 'profit': 0}}
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for row in rows:
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oh, od, oa = float(row['oh'] or 0), float(row['od'] or 0), float(row['oa'] or 0)
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if oh <= 1.0 or od <= 1.0 or oa <= 1.0: continue
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h_xg = (float(row['h_sc'] or 1.2) + float(row['a_co'] or 1.2)) / 2
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a_xg = (float(row['a_sc'] or 1.2) + float(row['h_co'] or 1.2)) / 2
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h_p = (float(row['h_form'] or 0)*10) + (float(row['h_sc'] or 1.2)*5) - (float(row['h_co'] or 1.2)*5)
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a_p = (float(row['a_form'] or 0)*10) + (float(row['a_sc'] or 1.2)*5) - (float(row['a_co'] or 1.2)*5)
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margin = (1/oh) + (1/od) + (1/oa)
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# MS Prediction
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f_ms = pd.DataFrame([{'h_form': float(row['h_form']), 'a_form': float(row['a_form']), 'h_xg': h_xg, 'a_xg': a_xg,
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'pow_diff': h_p - a_p, 'imp_h': (1/oh)/margin, 'imp_d': (1/od)/margin, 'imp_a': (1/oa)/margin,
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'h_sot': 4.0, 'a_sot': 3.0}])
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ms_probs = model_ms.predict(f_ms)[0]
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# MS Value Bet
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for i, (pick, prob, odd) in enumerate(zip(['1', 'X', '2'], ms_probs, [oh, od, oa])):
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if odd <= 1.0: continue
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edge = prob - (1/odd)
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if edge > 0.05 and prob > 0.50: # Value ve Güven
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results['ms']['bet'] += 1
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h, a = row['score_home'], row['score_away']
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w = (pick=='1' and h>a) or (pick=='X' and h==a) or (pick=='2' and a>h)
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if w: results['ms']['won'] += 1; results['ms']['profit'] += (odd - 1.0)
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else: results['ms']['profit'] -= 1.0
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break
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# OU2.5 Prediction
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f_ou = pd.DataFrame([{'h_xg': h_xg, 'a_xg': a_xg, 'total_xg': h_xg+a_xg, 'h_sot': 4.0, 'a_sot': 3.0}])
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p_over = model_ou.predict(f_ou)[0]
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# OU2.5 Value Bet
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if p_over > 0.55 and oh > 1.0: # Sadece örnek olarak over > %55 ise
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results['ou25']['bet'] += 1
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if (row['score_home'] + row['score_away']) > 2.5: results['ou25']['won'] += 1; results['ou25']['profit'] += 0.85 # Ortalama oran
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else: results['ou25']['profit'] -= 1.0
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# BTTS Prediction
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f_btts = pd.DataFrame([{'h_xg': h_xg, 'a_xg': a_xg, 'h_sc': float(row['h_sc']), 'a_sc': float(row['a_sc'])}])
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p_btts = model_btts.predict(f_btts)[0]
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# BTTS Value Bet
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if p_btts > 0.55:
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results['btts']['bet'] += 1
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if row['score_home'] > 0 and row['score_away'] > 0: results['btts']['won'] += 1; results['btts']['profit'] += 0.85
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else: results['btts']['profit'] -= 1.0
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print("\n" + "="*60)
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print("📊 VQWEN PAZAR BAZLI SONUÇLAR")
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print("="*60)
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for mkt in ['ms', 'ou25', 'btts']:
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r = results[mkt]
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wr = (r['won'] / r['bet'] * 100) if r['bet'] > 0 else 0
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print(f"{mkt.upper():<10} Oynanan: {r['bet']:<5} Kazanılan: {r['won']:<5} WR: {wr:.1f}% Kâr: {r['profit']:+.2f} Units")
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total_profit = sum(r['profit'] for r in results.values())
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print(f"\n💰 TOPLAM KÂR: {total_profit:+.2f} Units")
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if total_profit > 0: print("🟢 PARA KAZANDIK!")
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else: print("🔴 ZARARDA")
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cur.close()
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conn.close()
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if __name__ == "__main__":
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run_vqwen_backtest()
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