198 lines
5.5 KiB
YAML
Executable File
198 lines
5.5 KiB
YAML
Executable File
model_ensemble:
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xgb_weight: 0.50
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lgb_weight: 0.50
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temperature: 1.5
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default_ms_odds:
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home: 2.65
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draw: 3.20
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away: 2.65
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elo_staleness_days: 14
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odds_staleness_hours: 48
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engine_weights:
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team: 0.30
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player: 0.25
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odds: 0.30
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referee: 0.15
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min_weight: 0.05
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weight_redistribution:
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player_missing_to_team: 0.5
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player_missing_to_odds: 0.5
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referee_missing_to_team: 0.4
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referee_missing_to_odds: 0.6
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referee_min_matches: 5
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match_result:
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min_draw_prob: 0.15
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over_under:
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prob_min: 0.02
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prob_max: 0.98
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ou15_threshold: 0.55
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ou25_threshold: 0.52
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ou35_threshold: 0.48
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btts_threshold: 0.58
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poisson_blend_weight: 0.25
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poisson_grid_max: 6
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half_time:
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ft_to_ht_ratio: 0.42
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poisson_grid_max: 5
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ht_over_05_min: 0.20
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ht_over_05_max: 0.95
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ht_ou_threshold: 0.55
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ht_draw_floor: 0.28
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low_xg_threshold: 2.0
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low_xg_ratio_adjust: 0.85
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confidence:
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agreement_boost: 1.3
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disagreement_penalty: 0.7
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handicap:
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xg_diff_threshold: 1.2
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corners:
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xg_multiplier: 3.0
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baseline: 3.0
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home_dominant_bonus: 1.5
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away_dominant_bonus: 1.0
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dominance_threshold: 0.6
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line: 9.5
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cards:
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derby_heat_factor: 1.3
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line: 4.5
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score:
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poisson_grid_max: 7
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ms_confidence_threshold: 15.0
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risk:
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# Lowered thresholds for better surprise detection (was 0.20+)
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# Model typically outputs 4-8% for reversals, so we need lower thresholds
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surprise_threshold: 0.05
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surprise_threshold_top: 0.05
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surprise_threshold_non_top: 0.06
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surprise_threshold_favorite_reversal: 0.06
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surprise_threshold_favorite_reversal_top: 0.06
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surprise_threshold_favorite_reversal_non_top: 0.08
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surprise_threshold_underdog_reversal: 0.05
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surprise_threshold_underdog_reversal_top: 0.05
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surprise_threshold_underdog_reversal_non_top: 0.06
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surprise_threshold_basketball: 0.08
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surprise_threshold_basketball_top: 0.08
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surprise_threshold_basketball_non_top: 0.10
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surprise_min_top_gap: 0.01
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surprise_min_top_gap_top: 0.01
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surprise_min_top_gap_non_top: 0.015
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# New: Upset alert threshold for potential upsets (lower than main threshold)
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upset_alert_threshold: 0.05 # 5% - alert when reversal prob > 5%
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htft_temperature: 1.25
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htft_temperature_top: 1.25
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htft_temperature_non_top: 1.35
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htft_temperature_basketball: 1.08
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htft_temperature_basketball_top: 1.08
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htft_temperature_basketball_non_top: 1.15
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htft_reversal_multiplier: 0.60
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htft_reversal_multiplier_top: 0.60
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htft_reversal_multiplier_non_top: 0.45
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htft_reversal_multiplier_favorite: 0.72
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htft_reversal_multiplier_favorite_top: 0.72
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htft_reversal_multiplier_favorite_non_top: 0.55
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htft_reversal_multiplier_underdog: 0.45
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htft_reversal_multiplier_underdog_top: 0.45
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htft_reversal_multiplier_underdog_non_top: 0.30
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htft_reversal_multiplier_basketball: 0.90
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htft_reversal_multiplier_basketball_top: 0.90
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htft_reversal_multiplier_basketball_non_top: 0.75
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htft_reversal_gap_medium: 0.50
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htft_reversal_gap_strong: 1.00
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htft_prior_min_matches: 300
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htft_prior_blend_league: 0.65
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htft_prior_blend_top: 0.50
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htft_prior_blend_non_top: 0.58
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htft_prior_odds_blend_top: 0.35
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htft_prior_odds_blend_top_with_league: 0.22
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htft_favorite_balance_gap: 0.20
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htft_reversal_cap_factor: 2.30
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extreme_upset: 0.7
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high_upset: 0.5
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medium_upset: 0.3
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extreme_warnings: 3
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high_warnings: 2
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balanced_match_gap: 0.1
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referee_min_data: 10
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recommendations:
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confidence_threshold: 45
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value_confidence_min: 10
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value_confidence_max: 30
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value_edge_margin: 0.02
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value_upgrade_edge: 5.0
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# ACİL DÜZELTİLDİ: Güvenilir marketler genişletildi
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safe_markets: ['ÇŞ', '1.5 Üst/Alt', '2.5 Üst/Alt']
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# ACİL DÜZELTİLDİ: Market bazlı minimum confidence threshold'lar (Artık Olasılık Yüzdesi!)
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market_min_confidence:
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MS: 50.0 # Match result is hardest; 50%+ true probability is actually strong
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ÇŞ: 65.0 # Double chance naturally has high probability (2 sides of 3)
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1.5 Üst/Alt: 70.0 # 1.5 Goals needs to be highly probable to be worth playing
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2.5 Üst/Alt: 55.0 # Standard threshold for 50/50 lines
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3.5 Üst/Alt: 60.0 # Needs higher certianty than 2.5
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BTTS: 60.0 # Both Teams To Score - raised for accuracy (was 47.7%)
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risk_safe_boost: 1.2
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risk_ms_penalty_high: 0.5
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risk_ms_penalty_medium: 0.8
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risk_other_penalty: 0.7
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# ACİL DÜZELTİLDİ: Market weights güvenilir marketlere göre ayarlandı
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market_weights:
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MS: 0.5 # ⬇️ Düşürüldü (zayıf performans)
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ÇŞ: 1.5 # ⬆️ Artırıldı (güçlü performans)
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1.5 Üst/Alt: 1.6 # ⬆️ En yüksek (en güvenilir)
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2.5 Üst/Alt: 1.2 # ⬆️ Artırıldı
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3.5 Üst/Alt: 0.9 # ⬇️ Düşürüldü
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BTTS: 0.4 # ⬇️ Düşürüldü (zayıf performans)
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# Confidence Calibration (backtest-derived accuracy)
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baseline_accuracy: 65.0
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market_accuracy:
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MS: 52.1 # ❌ Zayıf
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ÇŞ: 77.9 # ✅ İyi
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1.5 Üst/Alt: 82.1 # ✅ Mükemmel
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2.5 Üst/Alt: 61.4 # ⚠️ Orta
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3.5 Üst/Alt: 60.7 # ⚠️ Orta
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BTTS: 50.7 # ❌ Zayıf
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calibration_buckets:
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ms_home:
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heavy_fav: 1.40 # home odds <= 1.40
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fav: 1.80 # home odds > 1.40 and <= 1.80
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balanced: 2.50 # home odds > 1.80 and <= 2.50
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underdog: 99.0 # home odds > 2.50
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team_xg:
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home_base: 1.35
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away_base: 1.10
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home_conversion_mult: 3.0
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away_conversion_mult: 2.5
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sidelined:
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position_weights:
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K: 0.35
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D: 0.20
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O: 0.25
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F: 0.30
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max_rating: 10
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adaptation_threshold: 10
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adaptation_discount: 0.5
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goalkeeper_penalty: 0.15
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confidence_boost: 10
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max_impact: 0.85
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key_player_threshold: 3
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recent_matches_lookback: 15
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