160 lines
7.2 KiB
Python
160 lines
7.2 KiB
Python
"""
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VQWEN Final Backtest
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====================
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Tests the Final Model (ELO + Rest + Context).
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"""
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import os
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import sys
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import json
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import pickle
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import pandas as pd
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import numpy as np
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import psycopg2
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from psycopg2.extras import RealDictCursor
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AI_DIR = os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__))
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ROOT_DIR = os.path.dirname(AI_DIR)
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PROJECT_ROOT = os.path.dirname(ROOT_DIR)
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def get_clean_dsn() -> str:
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return "postgresql://suggestbet:SuGGesT2026SecuRe@localhost:15432/boilerplate_db"
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def run_final_backtest():
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print("🧠 VQWEN FINAL BACKTEST (ELO + REST)")
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print("="*60)
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# Load Models
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mdir = os.path.join(ROOT_DIR, 'models', 'vqwen')
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try:
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with open(os.path.join(mdir, 'vqwen_ms.pkl'), 'rb') as f: model_ms = pickle.load(f)
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with open(os.path.join(mdir, 'vqwen_ou25.pkl'), 'rb') as f: model_ou = pickle.load(f)
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with open(os.path.join(mdir, 'vqwen_btts.pkl'), 'rb') as f: model_btts = pickle.load(f)
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print("✅ VQWEN Final modelleri yüklendi.")
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except Exception as e:
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print(f"❌ Model hatası: {e}")
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return
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with open(os.path.join(PROJECT_ROOT, "top_leagues.json"), 'r') as f:
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league_ids = tuple(str(lid) for lid in json.load(f))
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dsn = get_clean_dsn()
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conn = psycopg2.connect(dsn)
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cur = conn.cursor(cursor_factory=RealDictCursor)
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cur.execute("""
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SELECT m.id, m.home_team_id, m.away_team_id, m.score_home, m.score_away,
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m.mst_utc,
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t1.name as home_team, t2.name as away_team,
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maf.home_elo, maf.away_elo,
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COALESCE((SELECT AVG(m2.score_home) FROM matches m2 WHERE m2.home_team_id = m.home_team_id AND m2.status = 'FT' AND m2.mst_utc < m.mst_utc), 1.2) as h_home_goals,
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COALESCE((SELECT AVG(m2.score_away) FROM matches m2 WHERE m2.away_team_id = m.away_team_id AND m2.status = 'FT' AND m2.mst_utc < m.mst_utc), 1.2) as a_away_goals,
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COALESCE(EXTRACT(EPOCH FROM (to_timestamp(m.mst_utc/1000) - (SELECT MAX(to_timestamp(m2.mst_utc/1000)) FROM matches m2 WHERE m2.home_team_id = m.home_team_id AND m2.status = 'FT' AND m2.mst_utc < m.mst_utc)) / 86400), 7) as h_rest,
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COALESCE(EXTRACT(EPOCH FROM (to_timestamp(m.mst_utc/1000) - (SELECT MAX(to_timestamp(m2.mst_utc/1000)) FROM matches m2 WHERE m2.away_team_id = m.away_team_id AND m2.status = 'FT' AND m2.mst_utc < m.mst_utc)) / 86400), 7) as a_rest,
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COALESCE((SELECT COUNT(*) FROM match_player_participation mp WHERE mp.match_id = m.id AND mp.team_id = m.home_team_id AND mp.is_starting = true), 11) as h_xi,
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COALESCE((SELECT COUNT(*) FROM match_player_participation mp WHERE mp.match_id = m.id AND mp.team_id = m.away_team_id AND mp.is_starting = true), 11) as a_xi,
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COALESCE((SELECT COUNT(*) FROM match_player_events mpe WHERE mpe.match_id = m.id AND mpe.event_type = 'card'), 4) as cards,
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(SELECT os.odd_value FROM odd_categories oc JOIN odd_selections os ON os.odd_category_db_id = oc.db_id WHERE oc.match_id = m.id AND oc.name ILIKE 'Maç Sonucu' AND os.name = '1' LIMIT 1) as oh,
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(SELECT os.odd_value FROM odd_categories oc JOIN odd_selections os ON os.odd_category_db_id = oc.db_id WHERE oc.match_id = m.id AND oc.name ILIKE 'Maç Sonucu' AND os.name = 'X' LIMIT 1) as od,
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(SELECT os.odd_value FROM odd_categories oc JOIN odd_selections os ON os.odd_category_db_id = oc.db_id WHERE oc.match_id = m.id AND oc.name ILIKE 'Maç Sonucu' AND os.name = '2' LIMIT 1) as oa
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FROM matches m
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LEFT JOIN teams t1 ON m.home_team_id = t1.id
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LEFT JOIN teams t2 ON m.away_team_id = t2.id
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LEFT JOIN football_ai_features maf ON maf.match_id = m.id
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WHERE m.league_id IN %s AND m.status = 'FT' AND m.score_home IS NOT NULL
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ORDER BY m.mst_utc DESC
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LIMIT 1000
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""", (league_ids,))
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rows = cur.fetchall()
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print(f"📊 {len(rows)} maç analiz ediliyor...")
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results = {'ms': {'bet': 0, 'won': 0, 'profit': 0}, 'ou25': {'bet': 0, 'won': 0, 'profit': 0}, 'btts': {'bet': 0, 'won': 0, 'profit': 0}}
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for row in rows:
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oh = float(row['oh'] or 0)
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od = float(row['od'] or 0)
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oa = float(row['oa'] or 0)
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if oh <= 1.0 or od <= 1.0 or oa <= 1.0: continue
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# Features
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h_elo = float(row['home_elo'] or 1500)
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a_elo = float(row['away_elo'] or 1500)
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h_home_goals = float(row['h_home_goals'] or 1.2)
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a_away_goals = float(row['a_away_goals'] or 1.2)
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h_rest = float(row['h_rest'] or 7)
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a_rest = float(row['a_rest'] or 7)
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h_xi = float(row['h_xi'] or 11)
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a_xi = float(row['a_xi'] or 11)
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cards = float(row['cards'] or 4)
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def fatigue(rest):
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if rest < 3: return 0.85
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if rest < 5: return 0.95
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return 1.0
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h_fat = fatigue(h_rest)
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a_fat = fatigue(a_rest)
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h_xg = h_home_goals * h_fat
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a_xg = a_away_goals * a_fat
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total_xg = h_xg + a_xg
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margin = (1/oh) + (1/od) + (1/oa)
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f = pd.DataFrame([{
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'elo_diff': h_elo - a_elo,
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'h_xg': h_xg, 'a_xg': a_xg,
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'total_xg': total_xg,
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'pow_diff': (h_elo/100)*h_fat - (a_elo/100)*a_fat,
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'rest_diff': h_rest - a_rest,
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'h_fatigue': h_fat, 'a_fatigue': a_fat,
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'imp_h': (1/oh)/margin, 'imp_d': (1/od)/margin, 'imp_a': (1/oa)/margin,
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'h_xi': h_xi, 'a_xi': a_xi,
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'cards': cards
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}])
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# MS
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ms_probs = model_ms.predict(f)[0]
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for i, (pick, prob, odd) in enumerate(zip(['1', 'X', '2'], ms_probs, [oh, od, oa])):
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if odd <= 1.0: continue
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edge = prob - (1/odd)
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if edge > 0.05 and prob > 0.45:
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results['ms']['bet'] += 1
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h, a = row['score_home'], row['score_away']
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w = (pick=='1' and h>a) or (pick=='X' and h==a) or (pick=='2' and a>h)
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if w: results['ms']['won'] += 1; results['ms']['profit'] += (odd - 1.0)
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else: results['ms']['profit'] -= 1.0
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break
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# OU2.5
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p_over = float(model_ou.predict(f)[0])
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if p_over > 0.55:
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results['ou25']['bet'] += 1
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if (row['score_home'] + row['score_away']) > 2.5: results['ou25']['won'] += 1; results['ou25']['profit'] += 0.85
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else: results['ou25']['profit'] -= 1.0
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# BTTS
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p_btts = float(model_btts.predict(f)[0])
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if p_btts > 0.55:
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results['btts']['bet'] += 1
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if row['score_home'] > 0 and row['score_away'] > 0: results['btts']['won'] += 1; results['btts']['profit'] += 0.85
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else: results['btts']['profit'] -= 1.0
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print("\n" + "="*60)
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print("📊 VQWEN FINAL SONUÇLAR")
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print("="*60)
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for mkt in ['ms', 'ou25', 'btts']:
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r = results[mkt]
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wr = (r['won'] / r['bet'] * 100) if r['bet'] > 0 else 0
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print(f"{mkt.upper():<10} Oyn: {r['bet']:<5} Kaz: {r['won']:<5} WR: {wr:.1f}% Kâr: {r['profit']:+.2f}")
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total = sum(r['profit'] for r in results.values())
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print(f"\n💰 TOPLAM: {total:+.2f} Units")
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print("🟢 PARA KAZANDIK!" if total > 0 else "🔴 ZARARDA")
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cur.close()
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conn.close()
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if __name__ == "__main__":
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run_final_backtest()
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