{ "args": { "days": 14, "max_matches": 1000, "start": null, "end": null, "progress_interval": 50 }, "aggregate": { "overall": { "n_total": 1000, "n_playable_settled": 524, "wins": 287, "losses": 237, "hit_rate_pct": 54.77, "unit_profit": -17.897, "staked": 107.0, "roi_pct": -16.73 }, "by_market": { "OU25": { "n_total": 236, "n_playable_settled": 236, "wins": 134, "losses": 102, "hit_rate_pct": 56.78, "unit_profit": -6.271, "staked": 48.5, "roi_pct": -12.93 }, "BTTS": { "n_total": 205, "n_playable_settled": 205, "wins": 105, "losses": 100, "hit_rate_pct": 51.22, "unit_profit": -8.89, "staked": 41.1, "roi_pct": -21.63 }, "MS": { "n_total": 76, "n_playable_settled": 76, "wins": 44, "losses": 32, "hit_rate_pct": 57.89, "unit_profit": -2.396, "staked": 16.0, "roi_pct": -14.98 }, "OU35": { "n_total": 3, "n_playable_settled": 3, "wins": 0, "losses": 3, "hit_rate_pct": 0.0, "unit_profit": -0.6, "staked": 0.6, "roi_pct": -100.0 }, "DC": { "n_total": 4, "n_playable_settled": 4, "wins": 4, "losses": 0, "hit_rate_pct": 100.0, "unit_profit": 0.26, "staked": 0.8, "roi_pct": 32.5 } }, "by_confidence": { "65-70": { "n_total": 420, "n_playable_settled": 420, "wins": 233, "losses": 187, "hit_rate_pct": 55.48, "unit_profit": -14.057, "staked": 85.1, "roi_pct": -16.52 }, "60-65": { "n_total": 33, "n_playable_settled": 33, "wins": 16, "losses": 17, "hit_rate_pct": 48.48, "unit_profit": -1.61, "staked": 6.6, "roi_pct": -24.39 }, "55-60": { "n_total": 52, "n_playable_settled": 52, "wins": 28, "losses": 24, "hit_rate_pct": 53.85, "unit_profit": -0.668, "staked": 10.5, "roi_pct": -6.36 }, "50-55": { "n_total": 5, "n_playable_settled": 5, "wins": 2, "losses": 3, "hit_rate_pct": 40.0, "unit_profit": -0.64, "staked": 1.3, "roi_pct": -49.23 }, "45-50": { "n_total": 8, "n_playable_settled": 8, "wins": 4, "losses": 4, "hit_rate_pct": 50.0, "unit_profit": -0.382, "staked": 1.9, "roi_pct": -20.11 }, "70-80": { "n_total": 6, "n_playable_settled": 6, "wins": 4, "losses": 2, "hit_rate_pct": 66.67, "unit_profit": -0.54, "staked": 1.6, "roi_pct": -33.75 } }, "by_odds": { "1.3-1.5": { "n_total": 241, "n_playable_settled": 241, "wins": 148, "losses": 93, "hit_rate_pct": 61.41, "unit_profit": -7.408, "staked": 49.0, "roi_pct": -15.12 }, "1.5-1.8": { "n_total": 221, "n_playable_settled": 221, "wins": 115, "losses": 106, "hit_rate_pct": 52.04, "unit_profit": -6.926, "staked": 44.3, "roi_pct": -15.63 }, "1.8-2.2": { "n_total": 56, "n_playable_settled": 56, "wins": 23, "losses": 33, "hit_rate_pct": 41.07, "unit_profit": -2.789, "staked": 12.2, "roi_pct": -22.86 }, "2.2-3.0": { "n_total": 5, "n_playable_settled": 5, "wins": 1, "losses": 4, "hit_rate_pct": 20.0, "unit_profit": -0.574, "staked": 1.3, "roi_pct": -44.15 }, "3.0-5.0": { "n_total": 1, "n_playable_settled": 1, "wins": 0, "losses": 1, "hit_rate_pct": 0.0, "unit_profit": -0.2, "staked": 0.2, "roi_pct": -100.0 } }, "by_grade": { "B": { "n_total": 518, "n_playable_settled": 518, "wins": 285, "losses": 233, "hit_rate_pct": 55.02, "unit_profit": -16.931, "staked": 105.3, "roi_pct": -16.08 }, "A": { "n_total": 6, "n_playable_settled": 6, "wins": 2, "losses": 4, "hit_rate_pct": 33.33, "unit_profit": -0.966, "staked": 1.7, "roi_pct": -56.82 } }, "by_competition": { "league": { "n_total": 524, "n_playable_settled": 524, "wins": 287, "losses": 237, "hit_rate_pct": 54.77, "unit_profit": -17.897, "staked": 107.0, "roi_pct": -16.73 } } }, "loss_diagnostics": { "n_losses": 237, "total_loss_units": -48.7, "patterns": { "high_htft_reversal_prob (>=0.20)": [ 0, 0.0 ], "cup_match": [ 0, 0.0 ], "low_league_reliability (<0.45)": [ 42, 17.72 ], "v27_disagree": [ 60, 25.32 ], "trap_market_flagged": [ 81, 34.18 ], "low_calibrated_conf (<55)": [ 7, 2.95 ], "high_odds_underdog (>=2.5)": [ 4, 1.69 ], "low_data_quality (<0.55)": [ 40, 16.88 ], "high_risk_level": [ 20, 8.44 ], "inferred_features": [ 0, 0.0 ] }, "by_market": [ [ "OU25", 102 ], [ "BTTS", 100 ], [ "MS", 32 ], [ "OU35", 3 ] ], "by_league": [ [ null, 237 ] ], "top_bb_issues_in_losses": [ [ "triple_value_not_confirmed", 230 ], [ "trap_market_market_overpriced", 81 ], [ "low_reliability_league", 40 ], [ "v25_v27_soft_disagreement", 10 ], [ "engine_consensus_disagree", 5 ], [ "historical_sample_too_low", 3 ], [ "very_low_reliability_league", 2 ], [ "htft_reversal_prob_minor=0.13", 1 ] ], "top_bb_vetoes_in_losses": [] }, "recommendations": [ { "type": "raise_confidence_threshold", "confidence_band": "65-70", "evidence": "n=420, roi=-16.52%", "suggested_fix": "Raise MIN_BET_SCORE or market_min_conf above 65" } ], "errors_sample": [] }