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DIAGNOSTIC BACKTEST REPORT
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Generated:      2026-05-25T03:56:49
Sample window:  start=-14d, end=now
Max matches:    1000
Excluded days:  ['2026-04-29', '2026-05-03']

OVERALL
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  n_total                  : 1000
  n_playable_settled       : 524
  wins                     : 287
  losses                   : 237
  hit_rate_pct             : 54.77
  unit_profit              : -17.897
  staked                   : 107.0
  roi_pct                  : -16.73

PER MARKET
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  market        n    hit%    profit    roi%
  OU25        236   56.78    -6.271  -12.93
  BTTS        205   51.22     -8.89  -21.63
  MS           76   57.89    -2.396  -14.98
  DC            4   100.0      0.26    32.5
  OU35          3     0.0      -0.6  -100.0

PER CALIBRATED CONFIDENCE BAND
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  band            n    hit%    roi%
  45-50           8    50.0  -20.11
  50-55           5    40.0  -49.23
  55-60          52   53.85   -6.36
  60-65          33   48.48  -24.39
  65-70         420   55.48  -16.52
  70-80           6   66.67  -33.75

PER ODDS BAND
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  band            n    hit%    roi%
  1.3-1.5       241   61.41  -15.12
  1.5-1.8       221   52.04  -15.63
  1.8-2.2        56   41.07  -22.86
  2.2-3.0         5    20.0  -44.15
  3.0-5.0         1     0.0  -100.0

LEAGUE vs CUP
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  league   n= 524 hit=54.77% roi=-16.73%

LOSS DIAGNOSTICS
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  total losses:        237
  total lost units:    -48.7
  By market:           [('OU25', 102), ('BTTS', 100), ('MS', 32), ('OU35', 3)]
  Loss patterns (count, % of losses):
    high_htft_reversal_prob (>=0.20)                           0 (0.0%)
    cup_match                                                  0 (0.0%)
    low_league_reliability (<0.45)                            42 (17.72%)
    v27_disagree                                              60 (25.32%)
    trap_market_flagged                                       81 (34.18%)
    low_calibrated_conf (<55)                                  7 (2.95%)
    high_odds_underdog (>=2.5)                                 4 (1.69%)
    low_data_quality (<0.55)                                  40 (16.88%)
    high_risk_level                                           20 (8.44%)
    inferred_features                                          0 (0.0%)
  Top betting_brain issues seen in losses:
    triple_value_not_confirmed                              230
    trap_market_market_overpriced                           81
    low_reliability_league                                  40
    v25_v27_soft_disagreement                               10
    engine_consensus_disagree                               5
    historical_sample_too_low                               3
    very_low_reliability_league                             2
    htft_reversal_prob_minor=0.13                           1
  Top betting_brain vetoes (in losses — i.e. veto fired but bet still went through value-sniper override):

RECOMMENDATIONS
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  • [raise_confidence_threshold]
      confidence_band: 65-70
      evidence: n=420, roi=-16.52%
      suggested_fix: Raise MIN_BET_SCORE or market_min_conf above 65

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