"""Unit tests for V35 market-anchored calibration (pure, no DB/model deps).""" import os import sys sys.path.insert(0, os.path.abspath(os.path.join(os.path.dirname(__file__), ".."))) # tests must be deterministic: never consult the DB source for corrections os.environ["MARKET_ANCHOR_DB"] = "0" from models.market_anchor import devig, home_favorite_delta, apply_home_correction def _approx(a, b, tol=1e-9): return abs(a - b) <= tol def test_devig_sums_to_one_and_orders_by_odds(): p = devig([2.0, 3.5, 4.0]) assert p is not None assert _approx(sum(p), 1.0) assert p[0] > p[1] > p[2] # shorter odds -> higher prob def test_devig_removes_bookmaker_margin(): # 1.61 / 3.15 / 3.77 carries ~20% margin; fair home prob must be BELOW the # raw implied 1/1.61, and the three must sum to exactly 1. p = devig([1.61, 3.15, 3.77]) assert p is not None assert p[0] < 1.0 / 1.61 assert _approx(sum(p), 1.0) def test_devig_rejects_missing_or_placeholder_legs(): assert devig([1.0, 3.0, 4.0]) is None # 1.0 leg = no real price assert devig([None, 3.0, 4.0]) is None # missing leg assert devig([1.005, 3.0]) is None # <= 1.01 placeholder assert devig([]) is None assert devig([1.90, 1.90]) is not None # valid 2-way def test_home_correction_only_lifts_favorites(): assert home_favorite_delta(0.30) == 0.0 # underdog/level: no bias assert home_favorite_delta(0.50) > 0.0 assert home_favorite_delta(0.80) >= home_favorite_delta(0.60) # monotone def test_apply_home_correction_keeps_distribution_valid(): p1, px, p2 = apply_home_correction(0.70, 0.18, 0.12) assert p1 > 0.70 # favourite lifted assert _approx(p1 + px + p2, 1.0) # still a valid distribution # underdog vector untouched q = apply_home_correction(0.30, 0.30, 0.40) assert _approx(q[0], 0.30) def test_corrections_artifact_loaded_and_fallback(): import json import tempfile from models import market_anchor as ma # 1) valid artifact -> values come from the file with tempfile.NamedTemporaryFile( "w", suffix=".json", delete=False, encoding="utf-8" ) as fh: json.dump( {"version": "test", "corrections": {"ms_home": [ {"lo": 0.60, "hi": 0.70, "delta": 0.042}, ]}}, fh, ) path = fh.name try: os.environ["MARKET_ANCHOR_CORRECTIONS_PATH"] = path ma.reload_corrections() assert _approx(ma.home_favorite_delta(0.65), 0.042) # band not in the artifact -> the STATIC PRIOR applies (silence must # not erase proven knowledge); 0.45-0.55 static prior is 0.010 assert _approx(ma.home_favorite_delta(0.50), 0.010) # 2) malformed artifact -> static fallback, never crashes with open(path, "w", encoding="utf-8") as fh2: fh2.write("{not json") ma.reload_corrections() assert ma.home_favorite_delta(0.65) > 0.0 # fallback band value assert _approx(ma.home_favorite_delta(0.65), 0.028) finally: os.environ.pop("MARKET_ANCHOR_CORRECTIONS_PATH", None) ma.reload_corrections() os.unlink(path) def test_away_corrections_only_from_artifact(): import json import tempfile from models import market_anchor as ma # without an artifact: away correction must be ZERO (earned, not assumed). # (Point the env path at a nonexistent file: the repo now SHIPS a fitted # artifact, so "no artifact" must be simulated explicitly.) os.environ["MARKET_ANCHOR_CORRECTIONS_PATH"] = os.path.join( os.path.dirname(__file__), "does_not_exist.json" ) ma.reload_corrections() assert ma.away_favorite_delta(0.65) == 0.0 base = ma.apply_corrections(0.20, 0.20, 0.60) assert _approx(base[2], 0.60) # away untouched without artifact with tempfile.NamedTemporaryFile( "w", suffix=".json", delete=False, encoding="utf-8" ) as fh: json.dump( {"version": "t2", "corrections": { "ms_home": [{"lo": 0.45, "hi": 0.55, "delta": 0.010}], "ms_away": [{"lo": 0.55, "hi": 0.65, "delta": 0.020}], }}, fh, ) path = fh.name try: os.environ["MARKET_ANCHOR_CORRECTIONS_PATH"] = path ma.reload_corrections() assert _approx(ma.away_favorite_delta(0.60), 0.020) p1, px, p2 = ma.apply_corrections(0.20, 0.20, 0.60) assert p2 > 0.60 # away favourite lifted assert _approx(p1 + px + p2, 1.0) # still a valid distribution assert p1 < 0.20 and px < 0.20 # others renormalised down finally: os.environ.pop("MARKET_ANCHOR_CORRECTIONS_PATH", None) ma.reload_corrections() os.unlink(path) if __name__ == "__main__": fns = [v for k, v in sorted(globals().items()) if k.startswith("test_")] for fn in fns: fn() print(f"PASS {fn.__name__}") print(f"\nAll {len(fns)} tests passed.")