"""Reversal Mixin — HT/FT reversal watchlist and cycle metrics.

Auto-extracted mixin module — split from services/single_match_orchestrator.py.
All methods here are composed into SingleMatchOrchestrator via inheritance.
`self` attributes (self.dsn, self.enrichment, self.v25_predictor, etc.) are
initialised in the main __init__.
"""

from __future__ import annotations

import json
import re
import time
import math
import os
import pickle
from collections import defaultdict
from typing import Any, Dict, List, Optional, Set, Tuple, overload

import pandas as pd
import numpy as np

import psycopg2
from psycopg2.extras import RealDictCursor

from data.db import get_clean_dsn
from schemas.prediction import FullMatchPrediction
from schemas.match_data import MatchData
from models.v25_ensemble import V25Predictor, get_v25_predictor
try:
    from models.v27_predictor import V27Predictor, compute_divergence, compute_value_edge
except ImportError:
    class V27Predictor:  # type: ignore[no-redef]
        def __init__(self): self.models = {}
        def load_models(self): return False
        def predict_all(self, features): return {}
    def compute_divergence(*args, **kwargs):
        return {}
    def compute_value_edge(*args, **kwargs):
        return {}
from features.odds_band_analyzer import OddsBandAnalyzer
try:
    from models.basketball_v25 import (
        BasketballMatchPrediction,
        get_basketball_v25_predictor,
    )
except ImportError:
    BasketballMatchPrediction = Any  # type: ignore[misc]
    def get_basketball_v25_predictor() -> Any:
        raise ImportError("Basketball predictor is not available")
from core.engines.player_predictor import PlayerPrediction, get_player_predictor
from services.feature_enrichment import FeatureEnrichmentService
from services.betting_brain import BettingBrain
from services.v26_shadow_engine import V26ShadowEngine, get_v26_shadow_engine
from services.match_commentary import generate_match_commentary
from utils.top_leagues import load_top_league_ids
from utils.league_reliability import load_league_reliability
from config.config_loader import build_threshold_dict, get_threshold_default
from models.calibration import get_calibrator


class ReversalMixin:
    def get_reversal_watchlist(
        self,
        count: int = 20,
        horizon_hours: int = 72,
        min_score: float = 45.0,
        top_leagues_only: bool = False,
    ) -> Dict[str, Any]:
        safe_count = max(1, min(100, int(count)))
        safe_horizon = max(6, min(168, int(horizon_hours)))
        safe_min_score = max(0.0, min(100.0, float(min_score)))
        now_ms = int(time.time() * 1000)
        horizon_ms = now_ms + (safe_horizon * 60 * 60 * 1000)

        with psycopg2.connect(self.dsn) as conn:
            with conn.cursor(cursor_factory=RealDictCursor) as cur:
                cur.execute(
                    """
                    SELECT
                        lm.id,
                        lm.home_team_id,
                        lm.away_team_id,
                        lm.league_id,
                        lm.mst_utc
                    FROM live_matches lm
                    WHERE lm.sport = 'football'
                      AND lm.mst_utc >= %s
                      AND lm.mst_utc <= %s
                    ORDER BY lm.mst_utc ASC
                    LIMIT 200
                    """,
                    (now_ms, horizon_ms),
                )
                raw_candidates = cur.fetchall()

                candidates = [
                    row
                    for row in raw_candidates
                    if row.get("home_team_id") and row.get("away_team_id")
                ]
                if top_leagues_only:
                    candidates = [
                        row for row in candidates if self._is_top_league(row.get("league_id"))
                    ]

                team_ids: Set[str] = set()
                pair_keys: Set[Tuple[str, str]] = set()
                for row in candidates:
                    home_id = str(row["home_team_id"])
                    away_id = str(row["away_team_id"])
                    team_ids.add(home_id)
                    team_ids.add(away_id)
                    h, a = sorted((home_id, away_id))
                    pair_keys.add((h, a))

                team_cycle = self._fetch_team_reversal_cycle_metrics(cur, team_ids, now_ms)
                h2h_ctx = self._fetch_h2h_reversal_context(cur, pair_keys, now_ms)

        watch_items_all: List[Dict[str, Any]] = []
        scanned = 0
        for row in candidates:
            match_id = str(row["id"])
            data = self._load_match_data(match_id)
            if data is None:
                continue

            package = self.analyze_match(match_id)
            if not package:
                continue

            scanned += 1
            htft_probs = package.get("market_board", {}).get("HTFT", {}).get("probs", {})
            prob_12 = float(htft_probs.get("1/2", 0.0))
            prob_21 = float(htft_probs.get("2/1", 0.0))
            if prob_12 <= 0.0 and prob_21 <= 0.0:
                continue
            overall_htft_pick = None
            overall_htft_prob = 0.0
            if htft_probs:
                overall_htft_pick, overall_htft_prob = max(
                    htft_probs.items(),
                    key=lambda item: float(item[1]),
                )

            reversal_sum = prob_12 + prob_21
            reversal_max = max(prob_12, prob_21)
            top_pick = "2/1" if prob_21 >= prob_12 else "1/2"
            top_prob = prob_21 if top_pick == "2/1" else prob_12

            ms_h = self._to_float(data.odds_data.get("ms_h"), 0.0)
            ms_a = self._to_float(data.odds_data.get("ms_a"), 0.0)
            gap = abs(ms_h - ms_a) if ms_h > 1.0 and ms_a > 1.0 else 0.0
            favorite_odd = min(ms_h, ms_a) if ms_h > 1.0 and ms_a > 1.0 else 0.0

            # Reversal events are rare (~5% baseline), so convert raw probs to a more useful
            # watchlist scale where p in [0.02, 0.08] becomes meaningfully separable.
            base_score = (reversal_max * 100.0 * 8.0) + (reversal_sum * 100.0 * 4.0)

            balance_bonus = 0.0
            if gap > 0.0:
                balance_bonus = max(0.0, (1.0 - min(gap, 1.2) / 1.2) * 7.0)
            elif ms_h > 1.0 and ms_a > 1.0:
                balance_bonus = 2.0

            favorite_bonus = 0.0
            if favorite_odd > 0.0 and favorite_odd <= 1.70 and reversal_max >= 0.02:
                favorite_bonus = min(8.0, (1.70 - favorite_odd) * 12.0)

            home_metrics = team_cycle.get(data.home_team_id, {})
            away_metrics = team_cycle.get(data.away_team_id, {})
            cycle_pressure = max(
                float(home_metrics.get("cycle_pressure", 0.0)),
                float(away_metrics.get("cycle_pressure", 0.0)),
            )
            cycle_bonus = cycle_pressure * 10.0

            h, a = sorted((data.home_team_id, data.away_team_id))
            pair_key = (h, a)
            pair_ctx = h2h_ctx.get(pair_key, {})
            blowout_bonus = 0.0
            last_diff = int(pair_ctx.get("goal_diff", 0))
            if abs(last_diff) >= 3:
                blowout_bonus = 6.0
                if abs(last_diff) >= 5:
                    blowout_bonus += 3.0

            ou25_o = self._to_float(data.odds_data.get("ou25_o"), 0.0)
            tempo_bonus = 0.0
            if ou25_o > 1.0 and ou25_o <= 1.72:
                tempo_bonus = 2.5

            watch_score = max(
                0.0,
                min(
                    100.0,
                    base_score + balance_bonus + favorite_bonus + cycle_bonus + blowout_bonus + tempo_bonus,
                ),
            )
            reason_codes: List[str] = []
            if top_prob >= 0.045:
                reason_codes.append("reversal_prob_hot")
            elif top_prob >= 0.030:
                reason_codes.append("reversal_prob_warm")
            if gap > 0.0 and gap <= 0.80:
                reason_codes.append("balanced_matchup")
            if favorite_bonus > 0.0:
                reason_codes.append("strong_favorite_reversal_window")
            if cycle_pressure >= 0.55:
                reason_codes.append("team_reversal_cycle_pressure")
            if blowout_bonus > 0.0:
                reason_codes.append("h2h_blowout_rematch")
            if tempo_bonus > 0.0:
                reason_codes.append("high_tempo_profile")
            if not reason_codes:
                reason_codes.append("model_signal_only")

            item = (
                {
                    "match_id": data.match_id,
                    "match_name": f"{data.home_team_name} vs {data.away_team_name}",
                    "match_date_ms": data.match_date_ms,
                    "league_id": data.league_id,
                    "league": data.league_name,
                    "risk_band": self._watchlist_risk_band(watch_score),
                    "watch_score": round(watch_score, 2),
                    "top_pick": top_pick,
                    "top_pick_prob": round(top_prob, 4),
                    "top_pick_scope": "reversal_only",
                    "overall_htft_pick": overall_htft_pick,
                    "overall_htft_pick_prob": round(float(overall_htft_prob), 4),
                    "reversal_probs": {
                        "1/2": round(prob_12, 4),
                        "2/1": round(prob_21, 4),
                    },
                    "odds_snapshot": {
                        "ms_h": round(ms_h, 2) if ms_h > 0 else None,
                        "ms_a": round(ms_a, 2) if ms_a > 0 else None,
                        "ms_gap": round(gap, 3),
                        "favorite_odd": round(favorite_odd, 2) if favorite_odd > 0 else None,
                    },
                    "pattern_signals": {
                        "home_cycle_pressure": round(float(home_metrics.get("cycle_pressure", 0.0)), 3),
                        "away_cycle_pressure": round(float(away_metrics.get("cycle_pressure", 0.0)), 3),
                        "home_matches_since_last_reversal": int(home_metrics.get("matches_since_last_reversal", 99)),
                        "away_matches_since_last_reversal": int(away_metrics.get("matches_since_last_reversal", 99)),
                        "h2h_last_goal_diff": last_diff if pair_ctx else None,
                        "h2h_last_result": pair_ctx.get("result"),
                    },
                    "reason_codes": reason_codes,
                }
            )
            watch_items_all.append(item)

        watch_items_all.sort(
            key=lambda item: (
                float(item.get("watch_score", 0.0)),
                float(item.get("top_pick_prob", 0.0)),
            ),
            reverse=True,
        )

        selected = [
            item for item in watch_items_all if float(item.get("watch_score", 0.0)) >= safe_min_score
        ][:safe_count]
        preview = watch_items_all[: min(5, len(watch_items_all))]
        return {
            "engine": "v28.main",
            "generated_at": __import__("datetime").datetime.utcnow().isoformat() + "Z",
            "horizon_hours": safe_horizon,
            "min_score": round(safe_min_score, 2),
            "top_leagues_only": bool(top_leagues_only),
            "scanned_matches": scanned,
            "candidate_matches": len(candidates),
            "listed_matches": len(selected),
            "watchlist": selected,
            "top_candidates_preview": preview,
        }

    def _fetch_team_reversal_cycle_metrics(
        self,
        cur: RealDictCursor,
        team_ids: Set[str],
        now_ms: int,
    ) -> Dict[str, Dict[str, float]]:
        if not team_ids:
            return {}

        cur.execute(
            """
            WITH team_matches AS (
                SELECT
                    m.home_team_id AS team_id,
                    m.mst_utc,
                    CASE
                        WHEN m.ht_score_home > m.ht_score_away THEN 'L'
                        WHEN m.ht_score_home < m.ht_score_away THEN 'T'
                        ELSE 'D'
                    END AS ht_state,
                    CASE
                        WHEN m.score_home > m.score_away THEN 'W'
                        WHEN m.score_home < m.score_away THEN 'L'
                        ELSE 'D'
                    END AS ft_state
                FROM matches m
                WHERE m.status = 'FT'
                  AND m.score_home IS NOT NULL
                  AND m.score_away IS NOT NULL
                  AND m.ht_score_home IS NOT NULL
                  AND m.ht_score_away IS NOT NULL
                  AND m.home_team_id = ANY(%s)
                  AND m.mst_utc < %s
                UNION ALL
                SELECT
                    m.away_team_id AS team_id,
                    m.mst_utc,
                    CASE
                        WHEN m.ht_score_away > m.ht_score_home THEN 'L'
                        WHEN m.ht_score_away < m.ht_score_home THEN 'T'
                        ELSE 'D'
                    END AS ht_state,
                    CASE
                        WHEN m.score_away > m.score_home THEN 'W'
                        WHEN m.score_away < m.score_home THEN 'L'
                        ELSE 'D'
                    END AS ft_state
                FROM matches m
                WHERE m.status = 'FT'
                  AND m.score_home IS NOT NULL
                  AND m.score_away IS NOT NULL
                  AND m.ht_score_home IS NOT NULL
                  AND m.ht_score_away IS NOT NULL
                  AND m.away_team_id = ANY(%s)
                  AND m.mst_utc < %s
            ),
            ranked AS (
                SELECT
                    team_id,
                    mst_utc,
                    ht_state,
                    ft_state,
                    ROW_NUMBER() OVER (PARTITION BY team_id ORDER BY mst_utc DESC) AS rn
                FROM team_matches
            )
            SELECT team_id, mst_utc, ht_state, ft_state
            FROM ranked
            WHERE rn <= 80
            ORDER BY team_id ASC, mst_utc DESC
            """,
            (list(team_ids), now_ms, list(team_ids), now_ms),
        )
        rows = cur.fetchall()

        by_team: Dict[str, List[Dict[str, Any]]] = defaultdict(list)
        for row in rows:
            by_team[str(row["team_id"])].append(row)

        out: Dict[str, Dict[str, float]] = {}
        for team_id in team_ids:
            team_rows = by_team.get(str(team_id), [])
            if not team_rows:
                out[str(team_id)] = {
                    "recent_reversal_rate": 0.0,
                    "matches_since_last_reversal": 99.0,
                    "avg_gap_matches": 12.0,
                    "cycle_pressure": 0.0,
                }
                continue

            reversal_indexes: List[int] = []
            recent_reversal = 0
            recent_n = min(15, len(team_rows))
            for idx, row in enumerate(team_rows, start=1):
                ht_state = str(row.get("ht_state") or "")
                ft_state = str(row.get("ft_state") or "")
                is_reversal = (ht_state == "L" and ft_state == "L") or (ht_state == "T" and ft_state == "W")
                if idx <= recent_n and is_reversal:
                    recent_reversal += 1
                if is_reversal:
                    reversal_indexes.append(idx)

            recent_rate = (recent_reversal / recent_n) if recent_n > 0 else 0.0
            since_last = float(reversal_indexes[0]) if reversal_indexes else 99.0

            gaps: List[float] = []
            if len(reversal_indexes) >= 2:
                for i in range(1, len(reversal_indexes)):
                    gaps.append(float(reversal_indexes[i] - reversal_indexes[i - 1]))
            avg_gap = (sum(gaps) / len(gaps)) if gaps else 12.0
            if avg_gap <= 0:
                avg_gap = 12.0

            cycle_pressure = 0.0
            if reversal_indexes:
                tolerance = max(3.0, avg_gap * 0.7)
                diff = abs(since_last - avg_gap)
                cycle_pressure = max(0.0, 1.0 - (diff / tolerance))

            out[str(team_id)] = {
                "recent_reversal_rate": round(recent_rate, 4),
                "matches_since_last_reversal": round(since_last, 2),
                "avg_gap_matches": round(avg_gap, 2),
                "cycle_pressure": round(cycle_pressure, 4),
            }
        return out

    def _fetch_h2h_reversal_context(
        self,
        cur: RealDictCursor,
        pair_keys: Set[Tuple[str, str]],
        now_ms: int,
    ) -> Dict[Tuple[str, str], Dict[str, Any]]:
        if not pair_keys:
            return {}

        team_ids = sorted({team_id for pair in pair_keys for team_id in pair})
        cur.execute(
            """
            SELECT
                m.home_team_id,
                m.away_team_id,
                m.score_home,
                m.score_away,
                m.ht_score_home,
                m.ht_score_away,
                m.mst_utc
            FROM matches m
            WHERE m.status = 'FT'
              AND m.score_home IS NOT NULL
              AND m.score_away IS NOT NULL
              AND m.home_team_id = ANY(%s)
              AND m.away_team_id = ANY(%s)
              AND m.mst_utc < %s
            ORDER BY m.mst_utc DESC
            LIMIT 4000
            """,
            (team_ids, team_ids, now_ms),
        )
        rows = cur.fetchall()

        out: Dict[Tuple[str, str], Dict[str, Any]] = {}
        for row in rows:
            home_id = str(row["home_team_id"])
            away_id = str(row["away_team_id"])
            h, a = sorted((home_id, away_id))
            key = (h, a)
            if key not in pair_keys or key in out:
                continue

            score_home = int(row["score_home"])
            score_away = int(row["score_away"])
            goal_diff = score_home - score_away
            out[key] = {
                "goal_diff": goal_diff,
                "result": f"{score_home}-{score_away}",
                "match_date_ms": int(row["mst_utc"] or 0),
            }
            if len(out) >= len(pair_keys):
                break

        return out

    @staticmethod
    def _watchlist_risk_band(score: float) -> str:
        if score >= 68.0:
            return "HIGH"
        if score >= 54.0:
            return "MEDIUM"
        return "LOW"