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DIAGNOSTIC BACKTEST REPORT
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Generated:      2026-05-25T02:44:37
Sample window:  start=-3d, end=now
Max matches:    50
Excluded days:  ['2026-04-29', '2026-05-03']

OVERALL
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  n_total                  : 50
  n_playable_settled       : 27
  wins                     : 15
  losses                   : 12
  hit_rate_pct             : 55.56
  unit_profit              : -0.862
  staked                   : 5.4
  roi_pct                  : -15.96

PER MARKET
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  market        n    hit%    profit    roi%
  OU25         13   53.85      -0.6  -23.08
  BTTS         12    50.0    -0.392  -16.33
  MS            2   100.0      0.13    32.5

PER CALIBRATED CONFIDENCE BAND
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  band            n    hit%    roi%
  55-60           4    50.0  -23.75
  60-65           1     0.0  -100.0
  65-70          22   59.09  -10.73

PER ODDS BAND
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  band            n    hit%    roi%
  1.3-1.5        11   81.82   12.73
  1.5-1.8        10    50.0   -17.6
  1.8-2.2         6   16.67  -65.83

LEAGUE vs CUP
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  league   n=  27 hit=55.56% roi=-15.96%

LOSS DIAGNOSTICS
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  total losses:        12
  total lost units:    -2.4
  By market:           [('BTTS', 6), ('OU25', 6)]
  Loss patterns (count, % of losses):
    high_htft_reversal_prob (>=0.20)                           0 (0.0%)
    cup_match                                                  0 (0.0%)
    low_league_reliability (<0.45)                             0 (0.0%)
    v27_disagree                                               3 (25.0%)
    trap_market_flagged                                        4 (33.33%)
    low_calibrated_conf (<55)                                  0 (0.0%)
    high_odds_underdog (>=2.5)                                 0 (0.0%)
    low_data_quality (<0.55)                                   0 (0.0%)
    high_risk_level                                            3 (25.0%)
    inferred_features                                         12 (100.0%)
  Top betting_brain issues seen in losses:
    inferred_statistical_features                           12
    triple_value_not_confirmed                              12
    trap_market_market_overpriced                           4
  Top betting_brain vetoes (in losses — i.e. veto fired but bet still went through value-sniper override):

RECOMMENDATIONS
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  (none surfaced — sample too small or no clear pattern)

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