Update feeder.service.ts

Reviewed-on: #4

.gitignore

@@ -42,7 +42,9 @@ uploads/
 public/uploads/
 
 # Large Datasets and ML Models
-ai-engine/models/
-models/
+ai-engine/models/*
+!ai-engine/models/*.py
+models/*
+!models/*.py
 colab_export/
 

ai-engine/features/odds_band_analyzer.py

@@ -323,8 +323,8 @@ class OddsBandAnalyzer:
                         m.home_team_id,
                         m.away_team_id,
                         CASE
-                            WHEN m.home_team_id = %(team_id)s THEN os_sel.odd_value
-                            ELSE os_sel2.odd_value
+                            WHEN m.home_team_id = %(team_id)s THEN os_sel.odd_value::numeric
+                            ELSE os_sel2.odd_value::numeric
                         END AS team_odds
                     FROM matches m
                     JOIN odd_categories oc 
@@ -344,7 +344,7 @@ class OddsBandAnalyzer:
                       AND m.score_home IS NOT NULL
                       AND m.score_away IS NOT NULL
                       AND m.mst_utc < %(before_ts)s
-                      AND COALESCE(os_sel.odd_value, os_sel2.odd_value) 
+                      AND COALESCE(os_sel.odd_value::numeric, os_sel2.odd_value::numeric) 
                           BETWEEN %(band_low)s AND %(band_high)s
                     ORDER BY m.mst_utc DESC
                     LIMIT %(max_lookback)s
@@ -432,7 +432,7 @@ class OddsBandAnalyzer:
                       AND m.score_home IS NOT NULL
                       AND m.score_away IS NOT NULL
                       AND m.mst_utc < %(before_ts)s
-                      AND os_h.odd_value BETWEEN %(band_low)s AND %(band_high)s
+                      AND os_h.odd_value::numeric BETWEEN %(band_low)s AND %(band_high)s
                     ORDER BY m.mst_utc DESC
                     LIMIT %(max_lookback)s
                 )
@@ -508,7 +508,7 @@ class OddsBandAnalyzer:
                 f"İlk Yarı {line_str} Alt/Üst",
                 f"Ilk Yari {line_str} Alt/Ust",
             ]
-            score_expr = "COALESCE(m.score_ht_home, 0) + COALESCE(m.score_ht_away, 0)"
+            score_expr = "COALESCE(m.ht_score_home, 0) + COALESCE(m.ht_score_away, 0)"
         else:
             cat_names = [
                 f"{line_str} Alt/Üst",
@@ -535,7 +535,7 @@ class OddsBandAnalyzer:
                       AND m.status = 'FT'
                       AND m.score_home IS NOT NULL
                       AND m.mst_utc < %(before_ts)s
-                      AND os_over.odd_value BETWEEN %(band_low)s AND %(band_high)s
+                      AND os_over.odd_value::numeric BETWEEN %(band_low)s AND %(band_high)s
                     ORDER BY m.mst_utc DESC
                     LIMIT %(max_lookback)s
                 )
@@ -620,7 +620,7 @@ class OddsBandAnalyzer:
                       AND m.status = 'FT'
                       AND m.score_home IS NOT NULL
                       AND m.mst_utc < %(before_ts)s
-                      AND os_yes.odd_value BETWEEN %(band_low)s AND %(band_high)s
+                      AND os_yes.odd_value::numeric BETWEEN %(band_low)s AND %(band_high)s
                     ORDER BY m.mst_utc DESC
                     LIMIT %(max_lookback)s
                 )
@@ -696,7 +696,7 @@ class OddsBandAnalyzer:
                           AND m.sport = 'football' AND m.status = 'FT'
                           AND m.score_home IS NOT NULL
                           AND m.mst_utc < %(before_ts)s
-                          AND os_sel.odd_value BETWEEN %(bl)s AND %(bh)s
+                          AND os_sel.odd_value::numeric BETWEEN %(bl)s AND %(bh)s
                         ORDER BY m.mst_utc DESC LIMIT %(ml)s
                     )
                     SELECT COUNT(*) AS ss,
@@ -748,7 +748,7 @@ class OddsBandAnalyzer:
         try:
             cur.execute("""
                 WITH ht_matches AS (
-                    SELECT m.score_ht_home, m.score_ht_away,
+                    SELECT m.ht_score_home, m.ht_score_away,
                            m.home_team_id, m.away_team_id
                     FROM matches m
                     JOIN odd_categories oc ON oc.match_id = m.id
@@ -761,18 +761,18 @@ class OddsBandAnalyzer:
                         AND os2.name = '2' AND m.away_team_id = %(tid)s
                     WHERE (m.home_team_id = %(tid)s OR m.away_team_id = %(tid)s)
                       AND m.sport = 'football' AND m.status = 'FT'
-                      AND m.score_ht_home IS NOT NULL
+                      AND m.ht_score_home IS NOT NULL
                       AND m.mst_utc < %(before_ts)s
-                      AND COALESCE(os1.odd_value, os2.odd_value)
+                      AND COALESCE(os1.odd_value::numeric, os2.odd_value::numeric)
                           BETWEEN %(bl)s AND %(bh)s
                     ORDER BY m.mst_utc DESC LIMIT %(ml)s
                 )
                 SELECT COUNT(*) AS ss,
                     COALESCE(AVG(CASE
-                        WHEN (home_team_id = %(tid)s AND score_ht_home > score_ht_away)
-                          OR (away_team_id = %(tid)s AND score_ht_away > score_ht_home)
+                        WHEN (home_team_id = %(tid)s AND ht_score_home > ht_score_away)
+                          OR (away_team_id = %(tid)s AND ht_score_away > ht_score_home)
                         THEN 1.0 ELSE 0.0 END), 0.33) AS win_rate,
-                    COALESCE(AVG(CASE WHEN score_ht_home = score_ht_away
+                    COALESCE(AVG(CASE WHEN ht_score_home = ht_score_away
                         THEN 1.0 ELSE 0.0 END), 0.40) AS draw_rate
                 FROM ht_matches
             """, {
@@ -824,7 +824,7 @@ class OddsBandAnalyzer:
                       AND m.sport = 'football' AND m.status = 'FT'
                       AND m.score_home IS NOT NULL
                       AND m.mst_utc < %(before_ts)s
-                      AND os_odd.odd_value BETWEEN %(bl)s AND %(bh)s
+                      AND os_odd.odd_value::numeric BETWEEN %(bl)s AND %(bh)s
                     ORDER BY m.mst_utc DESC LIMIT %(ml)s
                 )
                 SELECT COUNT(*) AS ss,
@@ -1185,7 +1185,7 @@ class OddsBandAnalyzer:
                                     'IY/MS'
                                 )
                             JOIN odd_selections os ON os.odd_category_db_id = oc.db_id
-                                AND os.odd_value BETWEEN %(bl)s AND %(bh)s
+                                AND os.odd_value::numeric BETWEEN %(bl)s AND %(bh)s
                             WHERE m.sport = 'football'
                               AND m.status = 'FT'
                               AND m.score_home IS NOT NULL

ai-engine/main.py

@@ -14,10 +14,13 @@ from fastapi.middleware.cors import CORSMiddleware
 from fastapi.responses import JSONResponse
 from pydantic import BaseModel
 
+try:
     from models.basketball_v25 import get_basketball_v25_predictor
+    HAS_BASKETBALL = True
+except ImportError:
+    HAS_BASKETBALL = False
 from services.single_match_orchestrator import get_single_match_orchestrator
 from services.v26_shadow_engine import get_v26_shadow_engine
-from data.database import dispose_engine
 
 load_dotenv()
 
@@ -49,9 +52,6 @@ async def lifespan(_: FastAPI):
 
     yield
 
-    # Cleanup async DB connections on shutdown
-    await dispose_engine()
-
 
 app = FastAPI(
     title="Suggest-Bet AI Engine",
@@ -123,9 +123,15 @@ def health_check() -> dict[str, Any]:
     try:
         orchestrator = get_single_match_orchestrator()
         shadow_engine = get_v26_shadow_engine()
+        
+        if HAS_BASKETBALL:
             basketball_predictor = get_basketball_v25_predictor()
             basketball_readiness = basketball_predictor.readiness_summary()
-        ready = bool(basketball_readiness["fully_loaded"])
+            ready = bool(basketball_readiness.get("fully_loaded", True))
+        else:
+            basketball_readiness = {"fully_loaded": False, "error": "Basketball module not found"}
+            ready = True
+            
         return {
             "status": "healthy" if ready else "degraded",
             "engine": "v28.main",

ai-engine/models/calibration.py

@@ -0,0 +1,413 @@
+"""
+Calibration Module for XGBoost Models
+=====================================
+Calibrates raw probabilities from XGBoost models using Isotonic Regression.
+Ensures that a predicted probability of 70% actually corresponds to a 70% win rate.
+
+Usage:
+    from ai_engine.models.calibration import Calibrator
+    calibrator = Calibrator()
+    calibrated_prob = calibrator.calibrate("ms", raw_prob)
+    
+    # Training new calibration models:
+    calibrator.train_calibration(valid_df, market="ms")
+"""
+
+import os
+import pickle
+import json
+import numpy as np
+import pandas as pd
+from datetime import datetime
+from typing import Dict, List, Optional, Tuple, Any
+from sklearn.isotonic import IsotonicRegression
+from sklearn.calibration import calibration_curve
+from sklearn.metrics import brier_score_loss
+
+AI_ENGINE_DIR = os.path.dirname(os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__)))
+CALIBRATION_DIR = os.path.join(AI_ENGINE_DIR, "models", "calibration")
+
+os.makedirs(CALIBRATION_DIR, exist_ok=True)
+
+# Supported markets for calibration
+SUPPORTED_MARKETS = [
+    "ms",        # Match Result (1X2) - multi-class, calibrated per class
+    "ms_home",   # Standard Home win probability
+    "ms_home_heavy_fav", # Context: home odds <= 1.40
+    "ms_home_fav",       # Context: 1.40 < home odds <= 1.80
+    "ms_home_balanced",  # Context: 1.80 < home odds <= 2.50
+    "ms_home_underdog",  # Context: home odds > 2.50
+    "ms_draw",   # Draw probability  
+    "ms_away",   # Away win probability
+    "ou15",      # Over/Under 1.5
+    "ou25",      # Over/Under 2.5
+    "ou35",      # Over/Under 3.5
+    "btts",      # Both Teams to Score
+    "ht_ft",     # Half-Time/Full-Time
+    "dc",        # Double Chance
+    "ht",        # Half-Time Result
+]
+
+
+class CalibrationMetrics:
+    """Stores calibration quality metrics for a market."""
+    
+    def __init__(self):
+        self.brier_score: float = 0.0
+        self.calibration_error: float = 0.0
+        self.sample_count: int = 0
+        self.last_trained: str = ""
+        self.mean_predicted: float = 0.0
+        self.mean_actual: float = 0.0
+        
+    def to_dict(self) -> Dict:
+        return {
+            "brier_score": round(self.brier_score, 4),
+            "calibration_error": round(self.calibration_error, 4),
+            "sample_count": self.sample_count,
+            "last_trained": self.last_trained,
+            "mean_predicted": round(self.mean_predicted, 4),
+            "mean_actual": round(self.mean_actual, 4),
+        }
+
+
+class Calibrator:
+    """
+    Probability calibration using Isotonic Regression.
+    
+    Isotonic Regression is a non-parametric method that fits a piecewise
+    constant function that is monotonically increasing. It's ideal for
+    calibrating probabilities because:
+    
+    1. It preserves ranking (if P(A) > P(B) before, P(A) > P(B) after)
+    2. It doesn't assume a specific distribution shape
+    3. It can correct systematic over/under-confidence
+    
+    Example:
+        # Before calibration: model predicts 70% but actual win rate is 60%
+        # After calibration: model predicts 70% → calibrated to 60%
+    """
+    
+    def __init__(self):
+        self.calibrators: Dict[str, IsotonicRegression] = {}
+        self.metrics: Dict[str, CalibrationMetrics] = {}
+        self.heuristic_fallback: Dict[str, float] = {
+            "ms": 0.90,
+            "ms_home": 0.90,
+            "ms_home_heavy_fav": 0.95,
+            "ms_home_fav": 0.90,
+            "ms_home_balanced": 0.85,
+            "ms_home_underdog": 0.80,
+            "ms_draw": 0.90,
+            "ms_away": 0.90,
+            "ou15": 0.90,
+            "ou25": 0.90,
+            "ou35": 0.90,
+            "btts": 0.90,
+            "ht_ft": 0.85,
+            "dc": 0.93,
+            "ht": 0.85,
+        }
+        self._load_calibrators()
+        
+    def _load_calibrators(self):
+        """Load trained calibrators for each market from disk."""
+        for market in SUPPORTED_MARKETS:
+            model_path = os.path.join(CALIBRATION_DIR, f"{market}_calibrator.pkl")
+            metrics_path = os.path.join(CALIBRATION_DIR, f"{market}_metrics.json")
+            
+            if os.path.exists(model_path):
+                try:
+                    with open(model_path, "rb") as f:
+                        self.calibrators[market] = pickle.load(f)
+                    print(f"[Calibrator] Loaded calibration model for {market}")
+                except Exception as e:
+                    print(f"[Calibrator] Warning: Failed to load {market}: {e}")
+                    
+            if os.path.exists(metrics_path):
+                try:
+                    with open(metrics_path, "r") as f:
+                        data = json.load(f)
+                        metrics = CalibrationMetrics()
+                        metrics.brier_score = data.get("brier_score", 0.0)
+                        metrics.calibration_error = data.get("calibration_error", 0.0)
+                        metrics.sample_count = data.get("sample_count", 0)
+                        metrics.last_trained = data.get("last_trained", "")
+                        metrics.mean_predicted = data.get("mean_predicted", 0.0)
+                        metrics.mean_actual = data.get("mean_actual", 0.0)
+                        self.metrics[market] = metrics
+                except Exception as e:
+                    print(f"[Calibrator] Warning: Failed to load metrics for {market}: {e}")
+
+    def calibrate(self, market_type: str, raw_prob: float, odds_val: Optional[float] = None) -> float:
+        """
+        Calibrate a raw probability using Isotonic Regression.
+        
+        Args:
+            market_type (str): 'ms_home', 'ou25', 'btts', 'ht_ft', etc.
+            raw_prob (float): The raw probability from XGBoost (0.0 - 1.0)
+            odds_val (float, optional): The pre-match odds, used for context-aware bucket mapping
+            
+        Returns:
+            float: Calibrated probability (0.0 - 1.0)
+        """
+        # Normalize market type
+        market_key = market_type.lower().replace("-", "_")
+        
+        # Route to bucket if ms_home and odds provided
+        if market_key == "ms_home" and odds_val is not None and odds_val > 1.0:
+            if odds_val <= 1.40:
+                bucket_key = "ms_home_heavy_fav"
+            elif odds_val <= 1.80:
+                bucket_key = "ms_home_fav"
+            elif odds_val <= 2.50:
+                bucket_key = "ms_home_balanced"
+            else:
+                bucket_key = "ms_home_underdog"
+                
+            if bucket_key in self.calibrators:
+                market_key = bucket_key
+        
+        # If we have a trained Isotonic Regression model, use it
+        if market_key in self.calibrators:
+            try:
+                calibrated = self.calibrators[market_key].predict([raw_prob])[0]
+                # Ensure output is valid probability
+                return float(np.clip(calibrated, 0.01, 0.99))
+            except Exception as e:
+                print(f"[Calibrator] Warning: Isotonic failed for {market_key}: {e}")
+                # Fall through to heuristic
+        
+        # Fallback to heuristic calibration
+        return self._heuristic_calibrate(market_key, raw_prob)
+    
+    def _heuristic_calibrate(self, market_type: str, raw_prob: float) -> float:
+        """
+        Heuristic calibration fallback when no trained model exists.
+        
+        This applies a conservative shrinkage towards the mean:
+        - Binary markets (OU, BTTS): shrink towards 0.5
+        - Multi-class (MS): shrink towards 0.33
+        - HT/FT: stronger shrinkage due to higher variance
+        """
+        # Get shrinkage factor for this market
+        shrinkage = self.heuristic_fallback.get(market_type, 0.90)
+        
+        if market_type in ["ms", "ms_home", "ms_home_heavy_fav", "ms_home_fav", "ms_home_balanced", "ms_home_underdog", "ms_draw", "ms_away"]:
+            # Pull towards 0.33 (uniform for 3-class)
+            return (raw_prob * shrinkage) + (0.33 * (1.0 - shrinkage))
+            
+        elif market_type in ["ou15", "ou25", "ou35", "btts"]:
+            # Pull towards 0.5 (uniform for binary)
+            return (raw_prob * shrinkage) + (0.5 * (1.0 - shrinkage))
+            
+        elif market_type in ["ht_ft", "ht"]:
+            # Stronger shrinkage for high-variance markets
+            return raw_prob * shrinkage
+            
+        elif market_type == "dc":
+            # Double chance is more reliable
+            return (raw_prob * shrinkage) + (0.66 * (1.0 - shrinkage))
+            
+        return raw_prob
+
+    def train_calibration(
+        self,
+        df: pd.DataFrame,
+        market: str,
+        prob_col: str,
+        actual_col: str,
+        min_samples: int = 100,
+        save: bool = True,
+    ) -> CalibrationMetrics:
+        """
+        Train an Isotonic Regression calibration model for a specific market.
+        
+        Args:
+            df: DataFrame with predictions and actual outcomes
+            market: Market identifier (e.g., 'ms_home', 'ou25', 'btts')
+            prob_col: Column name for raw probabilities
+            actual_col: Column name for actual outcomes (0 or 1)
+            min_samples: Minimum samples required to train
+            save: Whether to save the model to disk
+            
+        Returns:
+            CalibrationMetrics with quality metrics
+        """
+        # Filter valid data
+        valid_df = df[[prob_col, actual_col]].dropna()
+        n_samples = len(valid_df)
+        
+        if n_samples < min_samples:
+            print(f"[Calibrator] Warning: Only {n_samples} samples for {market}, "
+                  f"need at least {min_samples}")
+            metrics = CalibrationMetrics()
+            metrics.sample_count = n_samples
+            return metrics
+        
+        # Extract arrays
+        raw_probs = valid_df[prob_col].values
+        actuals = valid_df[actual_col].values
+        
+        # Train Isotonic Regression
+        iso = IsotonicRegression(out_of_bounds="clip", increasing=True)
+        iso.fit(raw_probs, actuals)
+        
+        # Calculate calibrated probabilities
+        calibrated_probs = iso.predict(raw_probs)
+        
+        # Calculate metrics
+        metrics = CalibrationMetrics()
+        metrics.sample_count = n_samples
+        metrics.last_trained = datetime.utcnow().isoformat()
+        metrics.brier_score = brier_score_loss(actuals, calibrated_probs)
+        metrics.mean_predicted = np.mean(raw_probs)
+        metrics.mean_actual = np.mean(actuals)
+        
+        # Calculate Expected Calibration Error (ECE)
+        metrics.calibration_error = self._calculate_ece(
+            calibrated_probs, actuals, n_bins=10
+        )
+        
+        # Store in memory
+        self.calibrators[market] = iso
+        self.metrics[market] = metrics
+        
+        # Save to disk
+        if save:
+            self._save_calibration(market, iso, metrics)
+        
+        print(f"[Calibrator] Trained {market}: "
+              f"Brier={metrics.brier_score:.4f}, "
+              f"ECE={metrics.calibration_error:.4f}, "
+              f"n={n_samples}")
+        
+        return metrics
+    
+    def train_all_markets(
+        self,
+        df: pd.DataFrame,
+        market_config: Dict[str, Tuple[str, str]],
+        min_samples: int = 100,
+    ) -> Dict[str, CalibrationMetrics]:
+        """
+        Train calibration models for multiple markets at once.
+        
+        Args:
+            df: DataFrame with all predictions and outcomes
+            market_config: Dict mapping market -> (prob_col, actual_col)
+                          e.g., {'ou25': ('ou25_over_prob', 'ou25_over_actual')}
+            min_samples: Minimum samples per market
+            
+        Returns:
+            Dict of market -> CalibrationMetrics
+        """
+        results = {}
+        
+        for market, (prob_col, actual_col) in market_config.items():
+            print(f"\n[Calibrator] Training {market}...")
+            try:
+                metrics = self.train_calibration(
+                    df=df,
+                    market=market,
+                    prob_col=prob_col,
+                    actual_col=actual_col,
+                    min_samples=min_samples,
+                    save=True,
+                )
+                results[market] = metrics
+            except Exception as e:
+                print(f"[Calibrator] Failed to train {market}: {e}")
+                
+        return results
+    
+    def _calculate_ece(
+        self, 
+        probs: np.ndarray, 
+        actuals: np.ndarray, 
+        n_bins: int = 10
+    ) -> float:
+        """
+        Calculate Expected Calibration Error (ECE).
+        
+        ECE = sum(|bin_accuracy - bin_confidence| * bin_weight)
+        
+        Lower is better. Perfect calibration = 0.
+        """
+        bin_boundaries = np.linspace(0, 1, n_bins + 1)
+        ece = 0.0
+        
+        for i in range(n_bins):
+            in_bin = (probs >= bin_boundaries[i]) & (probs < bin_boundaries[i + 1])
+            prop_in_bin = np.mean(in_bin)
+            
+            if prop_in_bin > 0:
+                accuracy_in_bin = np.mean(actuals[in_bin])
+                avg_confidence_in_bin = np.mean(probs[in_bin])
+                ece += np.abs(accuracy_in_bin - avg_confidence_in_bin) * prop_in_bin
+                
+        return ece
+    
+    def _save_calibration(
+        self, 
+        market: str, 
+        calibrator: IsotonicRegression,
+        metrics: CalibrationMetrics
+    ):
+        """Save calibration model and metrics to disk."""
+        # Save model
+        model_path = os.path.join(CALIBRATION_DIR, f"{market}_calibrator.pkl")
+        with open(model_path, "wb") as f:
+            pickle.dump(calibrator, f)
+            
+        # Save metrics
+        metrics_path = os.path.join(CALIBRATION_DIR, f"{market}_metrics.json")
+        with open(metrics_path, "w") as f:
+            json.dump(metrics.to_dict(), f, indent=2)
+            
+        print(f"[Calibrator] Saved {market} to {CALIBRATION_DIR}")
+    
+    def get_calibration_report(self) -> Dict[str, Any]:
+        """Generate a summary report of all calibration models."""
+        report = {
+            "trained_markets": list(self.calibrators.keys()),
+            "metrics": {},
+            "heuristic_only": [],
+        }
+        
+        for market in SUPPORTED_MARKETS:
+            if market in self.metrics:
+                report["metrics"][market] = self.metrics[market].to_dict()
+            elif market not in self.calibrators:
+                report["heuristic_only"].append(market)
+                
+        return report
+    
+    def get_calibrated_probabilities(
+        self, 
+        market: str, 
+        raw_probs: np.ndarray
+    ) -> np.ndarray:
+        """
+        Batch calibration for array of probabilities.
+        
+        Args:
+            market: Market type
+            raw_probs: Array of raw probabilities
+            
+        Returns:
+            Array of calibrated probabilities
+        """
+        return np.array([self.calibrate(market, p) for p in raw_probs])
+
+
+# Singleton instance
+_calibrator_instance: Optional[Calibrator] = None
+
+
+def get_calibrator() -> Calibrator:
+    """Get or create the global Calibrator instance."""
+    global _calibrator_instance
+    if _calibrator_instance is None:
+        _calibrator_instance = Calibrator()
+    return _calibrator_instance

ai-engine/models/v25_ensemble.py

@@ -0,0 +1,645 @@
+"""
+V25 Ensemble Predictor - NO TARGET LEAKAGE
+===========================================
+Multi-model ensemble for match prediction using XGBoost and LightGBM.
+
+Features:
+- 73 engineered features (NO target leakage)
+- Market-specific models (MS, OU25, BTTS)
+- Weighted ensemble predictions
+- Value bet detection
+"""
+
+import os
+import json
+import numpy as np
+import pandas as pd
+from typing import Dict, List, Optional, Any
+from dataclasses import dataclass, field
+
+import xgboost as xgb
+import lightgbm as lgb
+
+# CatBoost is optional
+try:
+    from catboost import CatBoostClassifier
+    CATBOOST_AVAILABLE = True
+except ImportError:
+    CatBoostClassifier = None
+    CATBOOST_AVAILABLE = False
+
+# Paths
+MODELS_DIR = os.path.join(os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__)), 'v25')
+
+
+@dataclass
+class MarketPrediction:
+    """Prediction for a single betting market."""
+    market_type: str
+    pick: str
+    probability: float
+    confidence: float
+    odds: float = 0.0
+    is_value_bet: bool = False
+    edge: float = 0.0
+
+    def to_dict(self) -> dict:
+        return {
+            'market_type': self.market_type,
+            'pick': self.pick,
+            'probability': round(self.probability * 100, 1),
+            'confidence': round(self.confidence, 1),
+            'odds': self.odds,
+            'is_value_bet': self.is_value_bet,
+            'edge': round(self.edge * 100, 1),
+        }
+
+
+@dataclass
+class ValueBet:
+    """Detected value bet opportunity."""
+    market_type: str
+    pick: str
+    probability: float
+    odds: float
+    edge: float
+    confidence: float
+
+    def to_dict(self) -> dict:
+        return {
+            'market_type': self.market_type,
+            'pick': self.pick,
+            'probability': round(self.probability * 100, 1),
+            'odds': self.odds,
+            'edge': round(self.edge * 100, 1),
+            'confidence': round(self.confidence, 1),
+        }
+
+
+@dataclass
+class MatchPrediction:
+    """Complete match prediction with all markets."""
+    match_id: str
+    home_team: str
+    away_team: str
+    
+    # MS predictions
+    home_prob: float = 0.0
+    draw_prob: float = 0.0
+    away_prob: float = 0.0
+    ms_pick: str = ''
+    ms_confidence: float = 0.0
+    
+    # OU25 predictions
+    over_prob: float = 0.0
+    under_prob: float = 0.0
+    ou25_pick: str = ''
+    ou25_confidence: float = 0.0
+    
+    # BTTS predictions
+    btts_yes_prob: float = 0.0
+    btts_no_prob: float = 0.0
+    btts_pick: str = ''
+    btts_confidence: float = 0.0
+    
+    # Value bets
+    value_bets: List[ValueBet] = field(default_factory=list)
+    
+    def to_dict(self) -> dict:
+        return {
+            'match_id': self.match_id,
+            'home_team': self.home_team,
+            'away_team': self.away_team,
+            'ms': {
+                'home_prob': round(self.home_prob * 100, 1),
+                'draw_prob': round(self.draw_prob * 100, 1),
+                'away_prob': round(self.away_prob * 100, 1),
+                'pick': self.ms_pick,
+                'confidence': round(self.ms_confidence, 1),
+            },
+            'ou25': {
+                'over_prob': round(self.over_prob * 100, 1),
+                'under_prob': round(self.under_prob * 100, 1),
+                'pick': self.ou25_pick,
+                'confidence': round(self.ou25_confidence, 1),
+            },
+            'btts': {
+                'yes_prob': round(self.btts_yes_prob * 100, 1),
+                'no_prob': round(self.btts_no_prob * 100, 1),
+                'pick': self.btts_pick,
+                'confidence': round(self.btts_confidence, 1),
+            },
+            'value_bets': [vb.to_dict() for vb in self.value_bets],
+        }
+
+
+class V25Predictor:
+    """
+    V25 Ensemble Predictor - NO TARGET LEAKAGE
+    
+    Uses market-specific XGBoost and LightGBM models.
+    Each market (MS, OU25, BTTS) has its own trained models.
+    """
+    
+    # Feature columns (82 features, NO target leakage)
+    FEATURE_COLS = [
+        # ELO Features (8)
+        'home_overall_elo', 'away_overall_elo', 'elo_diff',
+        'home_home_elo', 'away_away_elo',
+        'home_form_elo', 'away_form_elo', 'form_elo_diff',
+        
+        # Form Features (12)
+        'home_goals_avg', 'home_conceded_avg',
+        'away_goals_avg', 'away_conceded_avg',
+        'home_clean_sheet_rate', 'away_clean_sheet_rate',
+        'home_scoring_rate', 'away_scoring_rate',
+        'home_winning_streak', 'away_winning_streak',
+        'home_unbeaten_streak', 'away_unbeaten_streak',
+        
+        # H2H Features (6)
+        'h2h_total_matches', 'h2h_home_win_rate', 'h2h_draw_rate',
+        'h2h_avg_goals', 'h2h_btts_rate', 'h2h_over25_rate',
+        
+        # Team Stats Features (8)
+        'home_avg_possession', 'away_avg_possession',
+        'home_avg_shots_on_target', 'away_avg_shots_on_target',
+        'home_shot_conversion', 'away_shot_conversion',
+        'home_avg_corners', 'away_avg_corners',
+        
+        # Odds Features (24)
+        'odds_ms_h', 'odds_ms_d', 'odds_ms_a',
+        'implied_home', 'implied_draw', 'implied_away',
+        'odds_ht_ms_h', 'odds_ht_ms_d', 'odds_ht_ms_a',
+        'odds_ou05_o', 'odds_ou05_u',
+        'odds_ou15_o', 'odds_ou15_u',
+        'odds_ou25_o', 'odds_ou25_u',
+        'odds_ou35_o', 'odds_ou35_u',
+        'odds_ht_ou05_o', 'odds_ht_ou05_u',
+        'odds_ht_ou15_o', 'odds_ht_ou15_u',
+        'odds_btts_y', 'odds_btts_n',
+        
+        # League Features (4)
+        'home_xga', 'away_xga',
+        'league_avg_goals', 'league_zero_goal_rate',
+        
+        # Upset Engine (4)
+        'upset_atmosphere', 'upset_motivation', 'upset_fatigue', 'upset_potential',
+        
+        # Referee Engine (5)
+        'referee_home_bias', 'referee_avg_goals', 'referee_cards_total',
+        'referee_avg_yellow', 'referee_experience',
+        
+        # Momentum Engine (3)
+        'home_momentum_score', 'away_momentum_score', 'momentum_diff',
+
+        # Squad Features (9)
+        'home_squad_quality', 'away_squad_quality', 'squad_diff',
+        'home_key_players', 'away_key_players',
+        'home_missing_impact', 'away_missing_impact',
+        'home_goals_form', 'away_goals_form',
+    ]
+    
+    # Model weights for ensemble
+    DEFAULT_WEIGHTS = {
+        'xgb': 0.50,
+        'lgb': 0.50,
+    }
+    
+    def __init__(self, models_dir: str = None):
+        """
+        Initialize V25 Predictor.
+        
+        Args:
+            models_dir: Directory containing model files. Defaults to v25/ directory.
+        """
+        self.models_dir = models_dir or MODELS_DIR
+        self.models = {}  # market -> {'xgb': model, 'lgb': model}
+        self._loaded = False
+    
+    # All trained market models available in V25
+    ALL_MARKETS = [
+        'ms', 'ou25', 'btts',           # Core markets
+        'ou15', 'ou35',                  # Additional OU lines
+        'ht_result', 'ht_ou05', 'ht_ou15',  # HT markets
+        'htft',                          # HT/FT combo
+        'cards_ou45',                    # Cards market
+        'handicap_ms',                   # Handicap
+        'odd_even',                      # Odd/Even goals
+    ]
+    
+    # Multi-class markets (output > 2 classes)
+    MULTICLASS_MARKETS = {'ms', 'ht_result', 'htft', 'handicap_ms'}
+    
+    def load_models(self) -> bool:
+        """Load all market-specific models from disk."""
+        try:
+            loaded_count = 0
+            
+            for market in self.ALL_MARKETS:
+                self.models[market] = {}
+                
+                # Load XGBoost (read content in Python to avoid non-ASCII path issues)
+                xgb_path = os.path.join(self.models_dir, f'xgb_v25_{market}.json')
+                if os.path.exists(xgb_path) and os.path.getsize(xgb_path) > 0:
+                    with open(xgb_path, 'r', encoding='utf-8') as f:
+                        xgb_content = f.read()
+                    booster = xgb.Booster()
+                    booster.load_model(bytearray(xgb_content, 'utf-8'))
+                    self.models[market]['xgb'] = booster
+                    loaded_count += 1
+                
+                # Load LightGBM (read content in Python to avoid non-ASCII path issues)
+                lgb_path = os.path.join(self.models_dir, f'lgb_v25_{market}.txt')
+                if os.path.exists(lgb_path) and os.path.getsize(lgb_path) > 0:
+                    with open(lgb_path, 'r', encoding='utf-8') as f:
+                        model_str = f.read()
+                    self.models[market]['lgb'] = lgb.Booster(model_str=model_str)
+                    loaded_count += 1
+                
+                # Remove empty entries
+                if not self.models[market]:
+                    del self.models[market]
+            
+            print(f"[V25] Loaded {loaded_count} model files across {len(self.models)} markets: {list(self.models.keys())}")
+            self._loaded = loaded_count > 0
+            return self._loaded
+            
+        except Exception as e:
+            print(f"[ERROR] Error loading models: {e}")
+            import traceback
+            traceback.print_exc()
+            return False
+    
+    def _ensure_loaded(self):
+        """Ensure models are loaded before prediction."""
+        if not self._loaded:
+            if not self.load_models():
+                raise RuntimeError("Failed to load V25 models")
+    
+    def _prepare_features(self, features: Dict[str, float]) -> pd.DataFrame:
+        """Prepare feature vector for prediction."""
+        X = pd.DataFrame([{col: features.get(col, 0.0) for col in self.FEATURE_COLS}])
+        return X
+    
+    def predict_ms(self, features: Dict[str, float]) -> tuple:
+        """
+        Predict match result (1X2).
+        
+        Returns:
+            (home_prob, draw_prob, away_prob)
+        """
+        self._ensure_loaded()
+        
+        X = self._prepare_features(features)
+        probs = []
+        
+        # XGBoost
+        if 'xgb' in self.models.get('ms', {}):
+            dmat = xgb.DMatrix(X)
+            xgb_proba = self.models['ms']['xgb'].predict(dmat)
+            if len(xgb_proba.shape) == 1:
+                xgb_proba = np.array([xgb_proba])
+            probs.append(xgb_proba[0] * self.DEFAULT_WEIGHTS['xgb'])
+        
+        # LightGBM
+        if 'lgb' in self.models.get('ms', {}):
+            lgb_proba = self.models['ms']['lgb'].predict(X)
+            if len(lgb_proba.shape) == 2:
+                probs.append(lgb_proba[0] * self.DEFAULT_WEIGHTS['lgb'])
+        
+        if not probs:
+            return 0.33, 0.33, 0.33
+        
+        ensemble_proba = np.sum(probs, axis=0)
+        ensemble_proba = ensemble_proba / ensemble_proba.sum()
+        
+        return float(ensemble_proba[0]), float(ensemble_proba[1]), float(ensemble_proba[2])
+    
+    def predict_ou25(self, features: Dict[str, float]) -> tuple:
+        """
+        Predict Over/Under 2.5 goals.
+        
+        Returns:
+            (over_prob, under_prob)
+        """
+        self._ensure_loaded()
+        
+        X = self._prepare_features(features)
+        probs = []
+        
+        # XGBoost
+        if 'xgb' in self.models.get('ou25', {}):
+            dmat = xgb.DMatrix(X)
+            xgb_proba = self.models['ou25']['xgb'].predict(dmat)
+            if isinstance(xgb_proba, np.ndarray) and len(xgb_proba.shape) == 1:
+                probs.append(xgb_proba[0])
+        
+        # LightGBM
+        if 'lgb' in self.models.get('ou25', {}):
+            lgb_proba = self.models['ou25']['lgb'].predict(X)
+            if isinstance(lgb_proba, np.ndarray):
+                probs.append(lgb_proba[0])
+        
+        if not probs:
+            return 0.5, 0.5
+        
+        # Average probability
+        avg_prob = np.mean(probs)
+        
+        return float(avg_prob), float(1 - avg_prob)
+    
+    def predict_btts(self, features: Dict[str, float]) -> tuple:
+        """
+        Predict Both Teams To Score.
+        
+        Returns:
+            (yes_prob, no_prob)
+        """
+        self._ensure_loaded()
+        
+        X = self._prepare_features(features)
+        probs = []
+        
+        # XGBoost
+        if 'xgb' in self.models.get('btts', {}):
+            dmat = xgb.DMatrix(X)
+            xgb_proba = self.models['btts']['xgb'].predict(dmat)
+            if isinstance(xgb_proba, np.ndarray) and len(xgb_proba.shape) == 1:
+                probs.append(xgb_proba[0])
+        
+        # LightGBM
+        if 'lgb' in self.models.get('btts', {}):
+            lgb_proba = self.models['btts']['lgb'].predict(X)
+            if isinstance(lgb_proba, np.ndarray):
+                probs.append(lgb_proba[0])
+        
+        if not probs:
+            return 0.5, 0.5
+        
+        # Average probability
+        avg_prob = np.mean(probs)
+        
+        return float(avg_prob), float(1 - avg_prob)
+    
+    def predict_market(self, market: str, features: Dict[str, float]) -> np.ndarray:
+        """
+        Generic prediction for any loaded market.
+        
+        Args:
+            market: Market key (e.g. 'ht_result', 'htft', 'cards_ou45')
+            features: Feature dictionary.
+            
+        Returns:
+            numpy array of probabilities.
+            For binary markets: [positive_prob]
+            For multi-class markets: [class0_prob, class1_prob, ...]
+        """
+        self._ensure_loaded()
+        
+        if market not in self.models:
+            return None
+        
+        X = self._prepare_features(features)
+        probs = []
+        weights = []
+        is_multiclass = market in self.MULTICLASS_MARKETS
+        
+        # XGBoost
+        if 'xgb' in self.models[market]:
+            dmat = xgb.DMatrix(X)
+            xgb_proba = self.models[market]['xgb'].predict(dmat)
+            if isinstance(xgb_proba, np.ndarray):
+                if is_multiclass and len(xgb_proba.shape) == 2:
+                    probs.append(xgb_proba[0])
+                elif is_multiclass and len(xgb_proba.shape) == 1:
+                    probs.append(xgb_proba)
+                else:
+                    probs.append(np.array([xgb_proba[0]]))
+            weights.append(self.DEFAULT_WEIGHTS['xgb'])
+        
+        # LightGBM
+        if 'lgb' in self.models[market]:
+            lgb_proba = self.models[market]['lgb'].predict(X)
+            if isinstance(lgb_proba, np.ndarray):
+                if is_multiclass and len(lgb_proba.shape) == 2:
+                    probs.append(lgb_proba[0])
+                elif is_multiclass and len(lgb_proba.shape) == 1:
+                    probs.append(lgb_proba)
+                else:
+                    probs.append(np.array([lgb_proba[0]]))
+            weights.append(self.DEFAULT_WEIGHTS['lgb'])
+        
+        if not probs:
+            return None
+        
+        # Weighted average
+        if len(probs) == 1:
+            return probs[0]
+        
+        total_w = sum(weights[:len(probs)])
+        result = np.zeros_like(probs[0])
+        for p, w in zip(probs, weights):
+            result += p * (w / total_w)
+        
+        # Normalize multi-class
+        if is_multiclass and result.sum() > 0:
+            result = result / result.sum()
+        
+        return result
+    
+    def has_market(self, market: str) -> bool:
+        """Check if a specific market model is loaded."""
+        return market in self.models
+    
+    def predict_match(
+        self,
+        match_id: str,
+        home_team: str,
+        away_team: str,
+        features: Dict[str, float],
+        odds: Optional[Dict[str, float]] = None,
+    ) -> MatchPrediction:
+        """
+        Predict all markets for a match.
+        
+        Args:
+            match_id: Match identifier.
+            home_team: Home team name.
+            away_team: Away team name.
+            features: Feature dictionary.
+            odds: Optional odds dictionary for value bet detection.
+            
+        Returns:
+            MatchPrediction object.
+        """
+        # Get predictions for each market
+        home_prob, draw_prob, away_prob = self.predict_ms(features)
+        over_prob, under_prob = self.predict_ou25(features)
+        btts_yes_prob, btts_no_prob = self.predict_btts(features)
+        
+        # Determine picks
+        ms_probs = {'1': home_prob, 'X': draw_prob, '2': away_prob}
+        ms_pick = max(ms_probs, key=ms_probs.get)
+        ms_confidence = ms_probs[ms_pick] * 100
+        
+        ou25_probs = {'Over': over_prob, 'Under': under_prob}
+        ou25_pick = max(ou25_probs, key=ou25_probs.get)
+        ou25_confidence = ou25_probs[ou25_pick] * 100
+        
+        btts_probs = {'Yes': btts_yes_prob, 'No': btts_no_prob}
+        btts_pick = max(btts_probs, key=btts_probs.get)
+        btts_confidence = btts_probs[btts_pick] * 100
+        
+        # Create prediction
+        prediction = MatchPrediction(
+            match_id=match_id,
+            home_team=home_team,
+            away_team=away_team,
+            home_prob=home_prob,
+            draw_prob=draw_prob,
+            away_prob=away_prob,
+            ms_pick=ms_pick,
+            ms_confidence=ms_confidence,
+            over_prob=over_prob,
+            under_prob=under_prob,
+            ou25_pick=ou25_pick,
+            ou25_confidence=ou25_confidence,
+            btts_yes_prob=btts_yes_prob,
+            btts_no_prob=btts_no_prob,
+            btts_pick=btts_pick,
+            btts_confidence=btts_confidence,
+        )
+        
+        # Detect value bets
+        if odds:
+            prediction.value_bets = self._detect_value_bets(
+                prediction, odds, home_prob, draw_prob, away_prob,
+                over_prob, under_prob, btts_yes_prob, btts_no_prob
+            )
+        
+        return prediction
+    
+    def _detect_value_bets(
+        self,
+        prediction: MatchPrediction,
+        odds: Dict[str, float],
+        home_prob: float,
+        draw_prob: float,
+        away_prob: float,
+        over_prob: float,
+        under_prob: float,
+        btts_yes_prob: float,
+        btts_no_prob: float,
+    ) -> List[ValueBet]:
+        """Detect value bets based on model vs market odds."""
+        value_bets = []
+        min_edge = 0.05  # 5% minimum edge
+        
+        # MS value bets
+        if 'ms_h' in odds and odds['ms_h'] > 0:
+            implied = 1 / odds['ms_h']
+            edge = home_prob - implied
+            if edge > min_edge:
+                value_bets.append(ValueBet(
+                    market_type='MS',
+                    pick='1',
+                    probability=home_prob,
+                    odds=odds['ms_h'],
+                    edge=edge,
+                    confidence=home_prob * 100,
+                ))
+        
+        if 'ms_d' in odds and odds['ms_d'] > 0:
+            implied = 1 / odds['ms_d']
+            edge = draw_prob - implied
+            if edge > min_edge:
+                value_bets.append(ValueBet(
+                    market_type='MS',
+                    pick='X',
+                    probability=draw_prob,
+                    odds=odds['ms_d'],
+                    edge=edge,
+                    confidence=draw_prob * 100,
+                ))
+        
+        if 'ms_a' in odds and odds['ms_a'] > 0:
+            implied = 1 / odds['ms_a']
+            edge = away_prob - implied
+            if edge > min_edge:
+                value_bets.append(ValueBet(
+                    market_type='MS',
+                    pick='2',
+                    probability=away_prob,
+                    odds=odds['ms_a'],
+                    edge=edge,
+                    confidence=away_prob * 100,
+                ))
+        
+        # OU25 value bets
+        if 'ou25_o' in odds and odds['ou25_o'] > 0:
+            implied = 1 / odds['ou25_o']
+            edge = over_prob - implied
+            if edge > min_edge:
+                value_bets.append(ValueBet(
+                    market_type='OU25',
+                    pick='Over',
+                    probability=over_prob,
+                    odds=odds['ou25_o'],
+                    edge=edge,
+                    confidence=over_prob * 100,
+                ))
+        
+        if 'ou25_u' in odds and odds['ou25_u'] > 0:
+            implied = 1 / odds['ou25_u']
+            edge = under_prob - implied
+            if edge > min_edge:
+                value_bets.append(ValueBet(
+                    market_type='OU25',
+                    pick='Under',
+                    probability=under_prob,
+                    odds=odds['ou25_u'],
+                    edge=edge,
+                    confidence=under_prob * 100,
+                ))
+        
+        # BTTS value bets
+        if 'btts_y' in odds and odds['btts_y'] > 0:
+            implied = 1 / odds['btts_y']
+            edge = btts_yes_prob - implied
+            if edge > min_edge:
+                value_bets.append(ValueBet(
+                    market_type='BTTS',
+                    pick='Yes',
+                    probability=btts_yes_prob,
+                    odds=odds['btts_y'],
+                    edge=edge,
+                    confidence=btts_yes_prob * 100,
+                ))
+        
+        if 'btts_n' in odds and odds['btts_n'] > 0:
+            implied = 1 / odds['btts_n']
+            edge = btts_no_prob - implied
+            if edge > min_edge:
+                value_bets.append(ValueBet(
+                    market_type='BTTS',
+                    pick='No',
+                    probability=btts_no_prob,
+                    odds=odds['btts_n'],
+                    edge=edge,
+                    confidence=btts_no_prob * 100,
+                ))
+        
+        return value_bets
+
+
+# Singleton instance
+_v25_predictor: Optional[V25Predictor] = None
+
+
+def get_v25_predictor() -> V25Predictor:
+    """Get or create V25 predictor instance."""
+    global _v25_predictor
+    if _v25_predictor is None:
+        _v25_predictor = V25Predictor()
+        _v25_predictor.load_models()
+    return _v25_predictor

ai-engine/models/v27_predictor.py

@@ -0,0 +1,291 @@
+"""
+V27 Pro Predictor — Odds-Free Fundamentals + Value Edge Detection
+
+This module loads V27 ensemble models (XGBoost, LightGBM, CatBoost)
+and produces market-independent probability estimates.
+
+The key insight: V27 is trained WITHOUT odds features, so it produces
+"true" probabilities unbiased by market pricing. The divergence between
+V25 (odds-aware) and V27 (odds-free) predictions signals market mispricing.
+"""
+
+import json
+import logging
+import os
+import pickle
+from pathlib import Path
+from typing import Dict, List, Optional, Tuple
+
+import numpy as np
+
+logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
+
+V27_DIR = Path(__file__).parent / "v27"
+
+
+class V27Predictor:
+    """
+    Loads V27 ensemble models and provides predictions using the
+    82-feature odds-free vector.
+    """
+
+    MARKETS = ["ms", "ou25"]
+
+    def __init__(self):
+        self.models: Dict[str, Dict[str, object]] = {}
+        self.feature_cols: List[str] = []
+        self._loaded = False
+
+    def load_models(self) -> bool:
+        """Load all V27 ensemble models and feature column spec."""
+        if self._loaded:
+            return True
+
+        # Feature columns
+        cols_path = V27_DIR / "v27_feature_cols.json"
+        if not cols_path.exists():
+            logger.error("[V27] Feature columns file not found: %s", cols_path)
+            return False
+
+        try:
+            with open(cols_path, "r", encoding="utf-8") as f:
+                self.feature_cols = json.load(f)
+            logger.info("[V27] Loaded %d feature columns", len(self.feature_cols))
+        except Exception as e:
+            logger.error("[V27] Failed to load feature columns: %s", e)
+            return False
+
+        # Load models per market
+        model_types = {"xgb": "xgb", "lgb": "lgb", "cb": "cb"}
+
+        for market in self.MARKETS:
+            self.models[market] = {}
+            for short, label in model_types.items():
+                # Try market-specific file first: v27_ms_xgb.pkl
+                path = V27_DIR / f"v27_{market}_{short}.pkl"
+                if not path.exists():
+                    # Fallback to generic: v27_xgboost.pkl (for MS only)
+                    generic_names = {"xgb": "v27_xgboost.pkl", "lgb": "v27_lightgbm.pkl", "cb": "v27_catboost.pkl"}
+                    path = V27_DIR / generic_names.get(short, "")
+                    if not path.exists():
+                        logger.warning("[V27] Model file not found for %s/%s", market, short)
+                        continue
+
+                try:
+                    with open(path, "rb") as f:
+                        model = pickle.load(f)
+                    self.models[market][label] = model
+                    logger.info("[V27] ✓ Loaded %s/%s from %s", market, label, path.name)
+                except Exception as e:
+                    logger.error("[V27] ✗ Failed to load %s/%s: %s", market, label, e)
+
+        loaded_count = sum(len(v) for v in self.models.values())
+        if loaded_count == 0:
+            logger.error("[V27] No models loaded!")
+            return False
+
+        self._loaded = True
+        logger.info("[V27] Total models loaded: %d across %d markets", loaded_count, len(self.models))
+        return True
+
+    def _build_feature_array(self, features: Dict[str, float]) -> np.ndarray:
+        """
+        Build ordered feature array from the full feature dict.
+        V27 uses only its 82 features (odds-free subset).
+        """
+        row = []
+        for col in self.feature_cols:
+            row.append(float(features.get(col, 0.0)))
+        return np.array([row])
+
+    def _predict_with_model(self, model, X: np.ndarray, label: str, expected_classes: int) -> Optional[np.ndarray]:
+        """
+        Predict probabilities from a model, handling both sklearn wrappers
+        (predict_proba) and raw Booster objects (predict).
+
+        For raw XGBoost Boosters, DMatrix is created WITH feature_names
+        to match the training schema.
+        """
+        import xgboost as xgb
+        import lightgbm as lgbm
+        import pandas as pd
+
+        # 1. Try sklearn-style predict_proba first
+        if hasattr(model, 'predict_proba'):
+            try:
+                proba = model.predict_proba(X)[0]
+                if len(proba) == expected_classes:
+                    return proba
+                logger.warning("[V27] %s predict_proba returned %d classes, expected %d", label, len(proba), expected_classes)
+            except Exception:
+                pass  # Fall through to raw predict
+
+        # 2. Raw xgboost.Booster — MUST pass feature_names
+        if isinstance(model, xgb.Booster):
+            try:
+                feature_names = self.feature_cols if self.feature_cols else None
+                dmat = xgb.DMatrix(X, feature_names=feature_names)
+                raw = model.predict(dmat)
+                if isinstance(raw, np.ndarray):
+                    if raw.ndim == 2 and raw.shape[1] == expected_classes:
+                        return raw[0]
+                    elif raw.ndim == 1 and expected_classes == 2:
+                        p = float(raw[0])
+                        return np.array([1.0 - p, p])
+                    elif raw.ndim == 1 and len(raw) == expected_classes:
+                        return raw
+            except Exception as e:
+                logger.warning("[V27] %s xgb.Booster predict failed: %s", label, e)
+                return None
+
+        # 3. Raw lightgbm.Booster — pass as DataFrame with column names
+        if isinstance(model, lgbm.Booster):
+            try:
+                if self.feature_cols:
+                    X_named = pd.DataFrame(X, columns=self.feature_cols)
+                    raw = model.predict(X_named)
+                else:
+                    raw = model.predict(X)
+                if isinstance(raw, np.ndarray):
+                    if raw.ndim == 2 and raw.shape[1] == expected_classes:
+                        return raw[0]
+                    elif raw.ndim == 1 and expected_classes == 2:
+                        p = float(raw[0])
+                        return np.array([1.0 - p, p])
+                    elif raw.ndim == 1 and len(raw) == expected_classes:
+                        return raw
+            except Exception as e:
+                logger.warning("[V27] %s lgb.Booster predict failed: %s", label, e)
+                return None
+
+        # 4. Generic fallback (CatBoost, etc.)
+        try:
+            if hasattr(model, 'predict'):
+                raw = model.predict(X)
+                if isinstance(raw, np.ndarray):
+                    if raw.ndim == 2 and raw.shape[1] == expected_classes:
+                        return raw[0]
+                    elif raw.ndim == 1 and expected_classes == 2:
+                        p = float(raw[0])
+                        return np.array([1.0 - p, p])
+                    elif raw.ndim == 1 and len(raw) == expected_classes:
+                        return raw
+        except Exception as e:
+            logger.warning("[V27] %s generic predict failed: %s", label, e)
+
+        return None
+
+    def predict_ms(self, features: Dict[str, float]) -> Optional[Dict[str, float]]:
+        """
+        Predict Match Score probabilities (Home/Draw/Away).
+        Returns dict with keys: home, draw, away.
+        """
+        if not self._loaded or "ms" not in self.models or not self.models["ms"]:
+            return None
+
+        X = self._build_feature_array(features)
+        probs_list = []
+
+        for label, model in self.models["ms"].items():
+            proba = self._predict_with_model(model, X, f"MS/{label}", expected_classes=3)
+            if proba is not None and len(proba) == 3:
+                probs_list.append(proba)
+
+        if not probs_list:
+            return None
+
+        # Ensemble average
+        avg = np.mean(probs_list, axis=0)
+        return {
+            "home": float(avg[0]),
+            "draw": float(avg[1]),
+            "away": float(avg[2]),
+        }
+
+    def predict_ou25(self, features: Dict[str, float]) -> Optional[Dict[str, float]]:
+        """
+        Predict Over/Under 2.5 probabilities.
+        Returns dict with keys: under, over.
+        """
+        if not self._loaded or "ou25" not in self.models or not self.models["ou25"]:
+            return None
+
+        X = self._build_feature_array(features)
+        probs_list = []
+
+        for label, model in self.models["ou25"].items():
+            proba = self._predict_with_model(model, X, f"OU25/{label}", expected_classes=2)
+            if proba is not None and len(proba) == 2:
+                probs_list.append(proba)
+
+        if not probs_list:
+            return None
+
+        avg = np.mean(probs_list, axis=0)
+        return {
+            "under": float(avg[0]),
+            "over": float(avg[1]),
+        }
+
+    def predict_all(self, features: Dict[str, float]) -> Dict[str, Optional[Dict[str, float]]]:
+        """Run predictions for all supported markets."""
+        return {
+            "ms": self.predict_ms(features),
+            "ou25": self.predict_ou25(features),
+        }
+
+
+def compute_divergence(
+    v25_probs: Dict[str, float],
+    v27_probs: Dict[str, float],
+) -> Dict[str, float]:
+    """
+    Compute the divergence signal between V25 (odds-aware) and V27 (odds-free).
+
+    Positive divergence = V27 thinks it's MORE likely than the market → VALUE BET
+    Negative divergence = V27 thinks it's LESS likely than the market → PASS
+
+    Returns per-outcome divergence values.
+    """
+    divergence = {}
+    for key in v27_probs:
+        v25_val = v25_probs.get(key, 0.33)
+        v27_val = v27_probs.get(key, 0.33)
+        divergence[key] = round(v27_val - v25_val, 4)
+    return divergence
+
+
+def compute_value_edge(
+    v25_probs: Dict[str, float],
+    v27_probs: Dict[str, float],
+    odds: Dict[str, float],
+) -> Dict[str, Dict]:
+    """
+    Detect value bets by combining V25/V27 divergence with odds.
+
+    A value bet exists when:
+    1. V27 (odds-free) probability > implied odds probability  (model says it's underpriced)
+    2. V27 and V25 divergence is positive  (V27 sees more signal than the market)
+
+    Returns per-outcome: { probability, implied_prob, edge, is_value }
+    """
+    results = {}
+    for key in v27_probs:
+        v27_p = v27_probs[key]
+        v25_p = v25_probs.get(key, 0.33)
+        odds_val = odds.get(key, 0.0)
+
+        implied_p = (1.0 / odds_val) if odds_val > 1.01 else 0.0
+        divergence = v27_p - v25_p
+        edge = v27_p - implied_p if implied_p > 0 else 0.0
+
+        results[key] = {
+            "v27_prob": round(v27_p, 4),
+            "v25_prob": round(v25_p, 4),
+            "implied_prob": round(implied_p, 4),
+            "divergence": round(divergence, 4),
+            "edge": round(edge, 4),
+            "is_value": edge > 0.05 and divergence > 0.02,  # 5% edge + 2% divergence
+        }
+
+    return results

ai-engine/services/betting_brain.py

@@ -0,0 +1,497 @@
+"""
+Deterministic betting judge for prediction packages.
+
+The model layer estimates event probabilities. BettingBrain decides whether
+those probabilities are trustworthy enough to risk money.
+"""
+
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+from typing import Any, Dict, List, Optional, Tuple
+
+
+class BettingBrain:
+    MIN_ODDS = 1.30
+    MIN_BET_SCORE = 72.0
+    MIN_WATCH_SCORE = 62.0
+    MIN_BAND_SAMPLE = 8
+    HARD_DIVERGENCE = 0.22
+    SOFT_DIVERGENCE = 0.14
+    EXTREME_MODEL_PROB = 0.85
+    EXTREME_GAP = 0.30
+
+    MARKET_PRIORS = {
+        "DC": 4.0,
+        "OU15": 3.0,
+        "OU25": 2.0,
+        "BTTS": 0.0,
+        "MS": -2.0,
+        "OU35": -2.0,
+        "HT": -6.0,
+        "HTFT": -12.0,
+        "CARDS": -5.0,
+        "OE": -8.0,
+    }
+
+    def judge(self, package: Dict[str, Any]) -> Dict[str, Any]:
+        v27_engine = package.get("v27_engine")
+        if not isinstance(v27_engine, dict):
+            return package
+
+        guarded = dict(package)
+        rows = self._collect_rows(guarded)
+        if not rows:
+            return guarded
+
+        judged_rows: Dict[str, Dict[str, Any]] = {}
+        decisions: List[Dict[str, Any]] = []
+        for row in rows:
+            key = self._row_key(row)
+            judged = self._judge_row(dict(row), guarded)
+            judged_rows[key] = judged
+            decisions.append(judged["betting_brain"])
+
+        approved = [
+            row for row in judged_rows.values()
+            if row.get("betting_brain", {}).get("action") == "BET"
+        ]
+        watchlist = [
+            row for row in judged_rows.values()
+            if row.get("betting_brain", {}).get("action") == "WATCH"
+        ]
+        approved.sort(key=self._candidate_sort_key, reverse=True)
+        watchlist.sort(key=self._candidate_sort_key, reverse=True)
+
+        original_main = guarded.get("main_pick") or {}
+        main_pick = None
+        decision = "NO_BET"
+        decision_reason = "No candidate passed the betting brain evidence gates."
+
+        if approved:
+            main_pick = dict(approved[0])
+            main_pick["is_guaranteed"] = bool(main_pick.get("betting_brain", {}).get("score", 0.0) >= 82.0)
+            main_pick["pick_reason"] = "betting_brain_approved"
+            decision = "BET"
+            decision_reason = main_pick.get("betting_brain", {}).get("summary", "Evidence is aligned.")
+        elif watchlist:
+            main_pick = dict(watchlist[0])
+            self._force_no_bet(main_pick, "betting_brain_watchlist")
+            decision = "WATCHLIST"
+            decision_reason = main_pick.get("betting_brain", {}).get("summary", "Interesting but not clean enough.")
+        elif original_main:
+            main_pick = dict(judged_rows.get(self._row_key(original_main), original_main))
+            self._force_no_bet(main_pick, "betting_brain_no_safe_pick")
+
+        main_key = self._row_key(main_pick) if main_pick else ""
+        supporting = [
+            dict(row)
+            for row in judged_rows.values()
+            if self._row_key(row) != main_key
+        ]
+        supporting.sort(key=self._candidate_sort_key, reverse=True)
+
+        bet_summary = [
+            self._summary_item(row)
+            for row in sorted(judged_rows.values(), key=self._candidate_sort_key, reverse=True)
+        ]
+
+        guarded["main_pick"] = main_pick
+        guarded["value_pick"] = self._pick_value_candidate(judged_rows, main_key)
+        guarded["supporting_picks"] = supporting[:6]
+        guarded["bet_summary"] = bet_summary
+
+        playable = decision == "BET" and bool(main_pick and main_pick.get("playable"))
+        advice = dict(guarded.get("bet_advice") or {})
+        advice["playable"] = playable
+        advice["suggested_stake_units"] = float(main_pick.get("stake_units", 0.0)) if playable else 0.0
+        advice["reason"] = "betting_brain_approved" if playable else "betting_brain_no_bet"
+        advice["decision"] = decision
+        advice["confidence_band"] = self._decision_band(main_pick)
+        guarded["bet_advice"] = advice
+
+        rejected = [d for d in decisions if d.get("action") == "REJECT"]
+        guarded["betting_brain"] = {
+            "version": "judge-v1",
+            "decision": decision,
+            "reason": decision_reason,
+            "main_pick_key": main_key or None,
+            "approved_count": len(approved),
+            "watchlist_count": len(watchlist),
+            "rejected_count": len(rejected),
+            "top_candidates": self._top_decisions(decisions),
+            "rules": {
+                "min_bet_score": self.MIN_BET_SCORE,
+                "min_watch_score": self.MIN_WATCH_SCORE,
+                "min_band_sample": self.MIN_BAND_SAMPLE,
+                "hard_divergence": self.HARD_DIVERGENCE,
+                "soft_divergence": self.SOFT_DIVERGENCE,
+                "extreme_model_probability": self.EXTREME_MODEL_PROB,
+                "extreme_model_market_gap": self.EXTREME_GAP,
+            },
+        }
+        guarded["upper_brain"] = guarded["betting_brain"]
+        guarded.setdefault("analysis_details", {})
+        guarded["analysis_details"]["betting_brain_applied"] = True
+        guarded["analysis_details"]["betting_brain_decision"] = decision
+        return guarded
+
+    def _judge_row(self, row: Dict[str, Any], package: Dict[str, Any]) -> Dict[str, Any]:
+        market = str(row.get("market") or "")
+        pick = str(row.get("pick") or "")
+        model_prob = self._market_probability(row, package)
+        odds = self._safe_float(row.get("odds"), 0.0) or 0.0
+        implied = (1.0 / odds) if odds > 1.0 else 0.0
+        model_gap = (model_prob - implied) if model_prob is not None and implied > 0 else None
+        calibrated_conf = self._safe_float(row.get("calibrated_confidence", row.get("confidence")), 0.0) or 0.0
+        play_score = self._safe_float(row.get("play_score"), 0.0) or 0.0
+        ev_edge = self._safe_float(row.get("ev_edge", row.get("edge")), 0.0) or 0.0
+        v27_prob = self._v27_probability(market, pick, package.get("v27_engine") or {})
+        divergence = abs(model_prob - v27_prob) if model_prob is not None and v27_prob is not None else None
+        triple_key = self._triple_key(market, pick)
+        triple = self._triple_value(package, triple_key)
+        band_sample = int(self._safe_float((triple or {}).get("band_sample"), 0.0) or 0.0)
+        triple_is_value = bool((triple or {}).get("is_value"))
+        consensus = str((package.get("v27_engine") or {}).get("consensus") or "").upper()
+
+        positives: List[str] = []
+        issues: List[str] = []
+        vetoes: List[str] = []
+        score = 0.0
+
+        if row.get("playable"):
+            score += 18.0
+            positives.append("base_model_playable")
+        else:
+            score -= 18.0
+            issues.append("base_model_not_playable")
+
+        score += max(0.0, min(20.0, calibrated_conf * 0.22))
+        score += max(-8.0, min(16.0, ev_edge * 45.0))
+        score += max(0.0, min(14.0, play_score * 0.12))
+        score += self.MARKET_PRIORS.get(market, -3.0)
+
+        data_quality = package.get("data_quality") or {}
+        quality_score = self._safe_float(data_quality.get("score"), 0.6) or 0.6
+        score += max(-8.0, min(6.0, (quality_score - 0.55) * 16.0))
+        risk = str((package.get("risk") or {}).get("level") or "MEDIUM").upper()
+        score += {"LOW": 5.0, "MEDIUM": 0.0, "HIGH": -12.0, "EXTREME": -22.0}.get(risk, -4.0)
+
+        if odds < self.MIN_ODDS:
+            vetoes.append("odds_below_minimum")
+        if calibrated_conf < 38.0:
+            vetoes.append("calibrated_confidence_too_low")
+        if play_score < 50.0:
+            vetoes.append("play_score_too_low")
+
+        if divergence is not None:
+            if divergence >= self.HARD_DIVERGENCE:
+                score -= 42.0
+                vetoes.append("v25_v27_hard_disagreement")
+            elif divergence >= self.SOFT_DIVERGENCE:
+                score -= 18.0
+                issues.append("v25_v27_soft_disagreement")
+            else:
+                score += 11.0
+                positives.append("v25_v27_aligned")
+
+        if isinstance(triple, dict):
+            if triple_is_value:
+                score += 18.0
+                positives.append("triple_value_confirmed")
+            elif market in {"DC", "MS", "OU25", "BTTS"}:
+                score -= 18.0
+                issues.append("triple_value_not_confirmed")
+
+            if band_sample >= 25:
+                score += 8.0
+                positives.append("strong_historical_sample")
+            elif band_sample >= self.MIN_BAND_SAMPLE:
+                score += 3.0
+                positives.append("usable_historical_sample")
+            else:
+                score -= 16.0
+                issues.append("historical_sample_too_low")
+                if market == "DC":
+                    vetoes.append("dc_without_historical_sample")
+        elif market in {"MS", "DC", "OU25"}:
+            score -= 10.0
+            issues.append("missing_triple_value_evidence")
+
+        if consensus == "DISAGREE" and market in {"MS", "DC"}:
+            score -= 12.0
+            issues.append("engine_consensus_disagree")
+
+        if (
+            model_prob is not None
+            and model_gap is not None
+            and model_prob >= self.EXTREME_MODEL_PROB
+            and model_gap >= self.EXTREME_GAP
+            and not triple_is_value
+        ):
+            score -= 24.0
+            vetoes.append("extreme_probability_without_evidence")
+
+        if market in {"HT", "HTFT", "OE"} and score < 86.0:
+            vetoes.append("volatile_market_requires_exceptional_evidence")
+
+        score = max(0.0, min(100.0, score))
+        action = "BET"
+        if vetoes:
+            action = "REJECT"
+        elif score < self.MIN_WATCH_SCORE:
+            action = "REJECT"
+        elif score < self.MIN_BET_SCORE:
+            action = "WATCH"
+
+        row["betting_brain"] = {
+            "action": action,
+            "score": round(score, 1),
+            "summary": self._summary(action, market, pick, positives, issues, vetoes),
+            "positives": positives[:5],
+            "issues": issues[:6],
+            "vetoes": vetoes[:6],
+            "model_prob": round(model_prob, 4) if model_prob is not None else None,
+            "implied_prob": round(implied, 4),
+            "model_market_gap": round(model_gap, 4) if model_gap is not None else None,
+            "v27_prob": round(v27_prob, 4) if v27_prob is not None else None,
+            "divergence": round(divergence, 4) if divergence is not None else None,
+            "triple_key": triple_key,
+            "triple_value": triple,
+        }
+
+        if action != "BET":
+            self._force_no_bet(row, f"betting_brain_{action.lower()}")
+        else:
+            row["is_guaranteed"] = bool(score >= 82.0)
+            row["pick_reason"] = "betting_brain_approved"
+            row["stake_units"] = self._brain_stake(row, score)
+            row["bet_grade"] = "A" if score >= 82.0 else "B"
+            row["playable"] = True
+
+        self._append_reason(row, f"betting_brain_{action.lower()}_{round(score)}")
+        return row
+
+    def _collect_rows(self, package: Dict[str, Any]) -> List[Dict[str, Any]]:
+        rows: Dict[str, Dict[str, Any]] = {}
+        for source in ("main_pick", "value_pick"):
+            item = package.get(source)
+            if isinstance(item, dict) and item.get("market"):
+                rows[self._row_key(item)] = dict(item)
+
+        for source in ("supporting_picks", "bet_summary"):
+            for item in package.get(source) or []:
+                if isinstance(item, dict) and item.get("market"):
+                    key = self._row_key(item)
+                    rows[key] = self._merge_row(rows.get(key), item)
+        return list(rows.values())
+
+    @staticmethod
+    def _merge_row(existing: Optional[Dict[str, Any]], incoming: Dict[str, Any]) -> Dict[str, Any]:
+        if existing is None:
+            return dict(incoming)
+        merged = dict(incoming)
+        merged.update({k: v for k, v in existing.items() if v is not None})
+        for key in ("decision_reasons", "reasons"):
+            reasons = list(existing.get(key) or []) + list(incoming.get(key) or [])
+            if reasons:
+                merged[key] = list(dict.fromkeys(reasons))
+        return merged
+
+    def _pick_value_candidate(self, rows: Dict[str, Dict[str, Any]], main_key: str) -> Optional[Dict[str, Any]]:
+        candidates = [
+            row for key, row in rows.items()
+            if key != main_key
+            and row.get("betting_brain", {}).get("action") in {"BET", "WATCH"}
+            and (self._safe_float(row.get("odds"), 0.0) or 0.0) >= 1.60
+        ]
+        candidates.sort(key=self._candidate_sort_key, reverse=True)
+        return dict(candidates[0]) if candidates else None
+
+    def _summary_item(self, row: Dict[str, Any]) -> Dict[str, Any]:
+        reasons = list(row.get("decision_reasons") or row.get("reasons") or [])
+        return {
+            "market": row.get("market"),
+            "pick": row.get("pick"),
+            "raw_confidence": row.get("raw_confidence", row.get("confidence")),
+            "calibrated_confidence": row.get("calibrated_confidence", row.get("confidence")),
+            "bet_grade": row.get("bet_grade", "PASS"),
+            "playable": bool(row.get("playable")),
+            "stake_units": float(row.get("stake_units", 0.0) or 0.0),
+            "play_score": row.get("play_score", 0.0),
+            "ev_edge": row.get("ev_edge", row.get("edge", 0.0)),
+            "implied_prob": row.get("implied_prob", 0.0),
+            "odds_reliability": row.get("odds_reliability", 0.35),
+            "odds": row.get("odds", 0.0),
+            "reasons": reasons[:6],
+            "betting_brain": row.get("betting_brain"),
+        }
+
+    @staticmethod
+    def _candidate_sort_key(row: Dict[str, Any]) -> Tuple[float, float, float]:
+        brain = row.get("betting_brain") or {}
+        action_boost = {"BET": 2.0, "WATCH": 1.0, "REJECT": 0.0}.get(str(brain.get("action")), 0.0)
+        return (
+            action_boost,
+            float(brain.get("score", 0.0) or 0.0),
+            float(row.get("play_score", 0.0) or 0.0),
+        )
+
+    @staticmethod
+    def _row_key(row: Optional[Dict[str, Any]]) -> str:
+        if not isinstance(row, dict):
+            return ""
+        return f"{row.get('market')}:{row.get('pick')}"
+
+    def _force_no_bet(self, row: Dict[str, Any], reason: str) -> None:
+        row["playable"] = False
+        row["stake_units"] = 0.0
+        row["bet_grade"] = "PASS"
+        row["is_guaranteed"] = False
+        row["pick_reason"] = reason
+        if row.get("signal_tier") == "CORE":
+            row["signal_tier"] = "PASS"
+        self._append_reason(row, reason)
+
+    @staticmethod
+    def _append_reason(row: Dict[str, Any], reason: str) -> None:
+        key = "decision_reasons" if "decision_reasons" in row else "reasons"
+        reasons = list(row.get(key) or [])
+        if reason not in reasons:
+            reasons.append(reason)
+        row[key] = reasons[:6]
+
+    def _brain_stake(self, row: Dict[str, Any], score: float) -> float:
+        existing = self._safe_float(row.get("stake_units"), 0.0) or 0.0
+        odds = self._safe_float(row.get("odds"), 0.0) or 0.0
+        if odds <= 1.0:
+            return 0.0
+        cap = 2.0 if score >= 82.0 else 1.2
+        if score < 78.0:
+            cap = 0.8
+        return round(max(0.25, min(existing if existing > 0 else cap, cap)), 1)
+
+    @staticmethod
+    def _decision_band(main_pick: Optional[Dict[str, Any]]) -> str:
+        if not main_pick:
+            return "LOW"
+        score = float((main_pick.get("betting_brain") or {}).get("score", 0.0) or 0.0)
+        if score >= 82.0:
+            return "HIGH"
+        if score >= 72.0:
+            return "MEDIUM"
+        return "LOW"
+
+    @staticmethod
+    def _top_decisions(decisions: List[Dict[str, Any]]) -> List[Dict[str, Any]]:
+        ordered = sorted(decisions, key=lambda d: float(d.get("score", 0.0) or 0.0), reverse=True)
+        return [
+            {
+                "action": item.get("action"),
+                "score": item.get("score"),
+                "summary": item.get("summary"),
+                "vetoes": item.get("vetoes", []),
+                "issues": item.get("issues", []),
+            }
+            for item in ordered[:5]
+        ]
+
+    @staticmethod
+    def _summary(action: str, market: str, pick: str, positives: List[str], issues: List[str], vetoes: List[str]) -> str:
+        if action == "BET":
+            return f"{market} {pick} approved: evidence is aligned enough for a controlled stake."
+        if action == "WATCH":
+            return f"{market} {pick} is interesting but not clean enough for stake."
+        if vetoes:
+            return f"{market} {pick} rejected: {', '.join(vetoes[:3])}."
+        if issues:
+            return f"{market} {pick} rejected: {', '.join(issues[:3])}."
+        return f"{market} {pick} rejected by evidence score."
+
+    def _market_probability(self, row: Dict[str, Any], package: Dict[str, Any]) -> Optional[float]:
+        direct = self._safe_float(row.get("probability"))
+        if direct is not None:
+            return direct
+        board = package.get("market_board") or {}
+        payload = board.get(str(row.get("market") or "")) if isinstance(board, dict) else None
+        probs = payload.get("probs") if isinstance(payload, dict) else None
+        if not isinstance(probs, dict):
+            return None
+        key = self._prob_key(str(row.get("market") or ""), str(row.get("pick") or ""))
+        return self._safe_float(probs.get(key)) if key else None
+
+    def _v27_probability(self, market: str, pick: str, v27_engine: Dict[str, Any]) -> Optional[float]:
+        predictions = v27_engine.get("predictions") or {}
+        ms = predictions.get("ms") or {}
+        ou25 = predictions.get("ou25") or {}
+        if market == "MS":
+            return self._safe_float(ms.get({"1": "home", "X": "draw", "2": "away"}.get(pick, "")))
+        if market == "DC":
+            home = self._safe_float(ms.get("home"), 0.0) or 0.0
+            draw = self._safe_float(ms.get("draw"), 0.0) or 0.0
+            away = self._safe_float(ms.get("away"), 0.0) or 0.0
+            return {"1X": home + draw, "X2": draw + away, "12": home + away}.get(pick)
+        if market == "OU25":
+            key = self._prob_key(market, pick)
+            return self._safe_float(ou25.get(key)) if key else None
+        return None
+
+    def _triple_value(self, package: Dict[str, Any], key: Optional[str]) -> Optional[Dict[str, Any]]:
+        if not key:
+            return None
+        value = ((package.get("v27_engine") or {}).get("triple_value") or {}).get(key)
+        return value if isinstance(value, dict) else None
+
+    def _triple_key(self, market: str, pick: str) -> Optional[str]:
+        prob_key = self._prob_key(market, pick)
+        if market == "MS":
+            return {"1": "home", "2": "away"}.get(pick)
+        if market == "DC" and pick.upper() in {"1X", "X2", "12"}:
+            return f"dc_{pick.lower()}"
+        if market in {"OU15", "OU25", "OU35"} and prob_key == "over":
+            return f"{market.lower()}_over"
+        if market == "BTTS" and prob_key == "yes":
+            return "btts_yes"
+        if market == "HT":
+            return {"1": "ht_home", "2": "ht_away"}.get(pick)
+        if market in {"HT_OU05", "HT_OU15"} and prob_key == "over":
+            return f"{market.lower()}_over"
+        if market == "OE" and prob_key == "odd":
+            return "oe_odd"
+        if market == "CARDS" and prob_key == "over":
+            return "cards_over"
+        if market == "HTFT" and "/" in pick:
+            return f"htft_{pick.replace('/', '').lower()}"
+        return None
+
+    @staticmethod
+    def _prob_key(market: str, pick: str) -> Optional[str]:
+        norm = str(pick or "").strip().casefold()
+        if market in {"MS", "HT", "HCAP"}:
+            return pick if pick in {"1", "X", "2"} else None
+        if market == "DC":
+            return pick.upper() if pick.upper() in {"1X", "X2", "12"} else None
+        if market in {"OU15", "OU25", "OU35", "HT_OU05", "HT_OU15", "CARDS"}:
+            if "over" in norm or "ust" in norm or "üst" in norm:
+                return "over"
+            if "under" in norm or "alt" in norm:
+                return "under"
+        if market == "BTTS":
+            if "yes" in norm or "var" in norm:
+                return "yes"
+            if "no" in norm or "yok" in norm:
+                return "no"
+        if market == "OE":
+            if "odd" in norm or "tek" in norm:
+                return "odd"
+            if "even" in norm or "cift" in norm or "çift" in norm:
+                return "even"
+        if market == "HTFT" and "/" in pick:
+            return pick
+        return None
+
+    @staticmethod
+    def _safe_float(value: Any, default: Optional[float] = None) -> Optional[float]:
+        try:
+            return float(value)
+        except (TypeError, ValueError):
+            return default

ai-engine/services/single_match_orchestrator.py

@@ -30,12 +30,18 @@ from models.v20_ensemble import FullMatchPrediction
 from models.v25_ensemble import V25Predictor, get_v25_predictor
 from models.v27_predictor import V27Predictor, compute_divergence, compute_value_edge
 from features.odds_band_analyzer import OddsBandAnalyzer
+try:
     from models.basketball_v25 import (
         BasketballMatchPrediction,
         get_basketball_v25_predictor,
     )
+except ImportError:
+    BasketballMatchPrediction = Any
+    def get_basketball_v25_predictor():
+        raise ImportError("Basketball predictor is not available")
 from core.engines.player_predictor import PlayerPrediction, get_player_predictor
 from services.feature_enrichment import FeatureEnrichmentService
+from services.betting_brain import BettingBrain
 from services.v26_shadow_engine import V26ShadowEngine, get_v26_shadow_engine
 from utils.top_leagues import load_top_league_ids
 from utils.league_reliability import load_league_reliability
@@ -69,6 +75,7 @@ class MatchData:
     substate: Optional[str] = None
     current_score_home: Optional[int] = None
     current_score_away: Optional[int] = None
+    lineup_confidence: float = 0.0
 
 
 class SingleMatchOrchestrator:
@@ -144,7 +151,7 @@ class SingleMatchOrchestrator:
         self.v26_shadow_engine: Optional[V26ShadowEngine] = None
         self.basketball_predictor: Optional[Any] = None
         self.dsn = get_clean_dsn()
-        self.engine_mode = str(os.getenv("AI_ENGINE_MODE", "v25")).strip().lower()
+        self.engine_mode = str(os.getenv("AI_ENGINE_MODE", "v28-pro-max")).strip().lower()
         self.top_league_ids = load_top_league_ids()
         self.league_reliability = load_league_reliability()
         self.enrichment = FeatureEnrichmentService()
@@ -527,12 +534,18 @@ class SingleMatchOrchestrator:
         }
 
     def _get_squad_features(self, data: MatchData) -> Dict[str, float]:
-        """Non-fatal squad analysis. Returns zero-defaults on failure."""
+        """Non-fatal squad analysis. Returns neutral-average defaults on failure.
+
+        Design note (V32-fix): Previous 0.0 defaults caused the model to treat
+        missing lineups as 'both teams have zero quality', producing overly
+        conservative predictions (e.g. static 1.5 Under).  Neutral averages let
+        the model fall back on stronger signals (odds, ELO, form, H2H).
+        """
         defaults = {
-            'home_squad_quality': 0.0, 'away_squad_quality': 0.0, 'squad_diff': 0.0,
-            'home_key_players': 0.0, 'away_key_players': 0.0,
+            'home_squad_quality': 0.50, 'away_squad_quality': 0.50, 'squad_diff': 0.0,
+            'home_key_players': 3.0, 'away_key_players': 3.0,
             'home_missing_impact': 0.0, 'away_missing_impact': 0.0,
-            'home_goals_form': 0.0, 'away_goals_form': 0.0,
+            'home_goals_form': 1.3, 'away_goals_form': 1.3,
         }
         try:
             engine = get_player_predictor()
@@ -559,27 +572,186 @@ class SingleMatchOrchestrator:
             print(f"⚠️ Squad features failed: {e}")
             return defaults
 
+    # ── V25 internal key → _build_v25_prediction key mapping ──
+    _V25_KEY_MAP = {
+        "ms": "MS",
+        "ou15": "OU15",
+        "ou25": "OU25",
+        "ou35": "OU35",
+        "btts": "BTTS",
+        "ht_result": "HT",
+        "ht_ou05": "HT_OU05",
+        "ht_ou15": "HT_OU15",
+        "htft": "HTFT",
+        "cards_ou45": "CARDS",
+        "handicap_ms": "HCAP",
+        "odd_even": "OE",
+    }
+
     def _get_v25_signal(
         self,
         data: MatchData,
         features: Optional[Dict[str, float]] = None,
     ) -> Dict[str, Any]:
+        """
+        Get V25 ensemble predictions for all available markets.
+        Returns a dict keyed by UPPERCASE market name (MS, OU25, BTTS, etc.)
+        each with a 'probs' sub-dict that _prob_map can consume.
+
+        CRITICAL: Keys MUST be uppercase to match _build_v25_prediction lookups.
+        """
         v25 = self._get_v25_predictor()
         feature_row = features or self._build_v25_features(data)
-        return v25.predict_market_bundle(
-            features=feature_row,
-            odds=self._sanitize_v25_odds(data.odds_data or {}),
-        )
+
+        signal: Dict[str, Any] = {}
+
+        def _temperature_scale(probs_dict: Dict[str, float], temperature: float = 2.5) -> Dict[str, float]:
+            """
+            Apply temperature scaling to soften overconfident model outputs.
+
+            LightGBM often produces extreme probabilities (e.g., 0.999 / 0.001).
+            Temperature scaling converts to log-odds, divides by T, then re-normalizes.
+            T=1.0 → no change, T>1 → softer probabilities.
+
+            Standard approach for post-hoc model calibration (Guo et al., 2017).
+            """
+            import math
+            eps = 1e-7  # numerical stability
+            n = len(probs_dict)
+
+            # Determine appropriate temperature based on market type
+            # Binary markets (2-class) tend to be more overconfident in LGB
+            if n <= 2:
+                T = max(temperature, 2.0)
+            elif n == 3:
+                T = max(temperature * 0.8, 1.5)  # 3-way slightly less aggressive
+            else:
+                T = max(temperature * 0.6, 1.3)  # 9-way (HTFT) already spread
+
+            # Convert to log-odds and apply temperature
+            labels = list(probs_dict.keys())
+            log_odds = []
+            for label in labels:
+                p = max(eps, min(1.0 - eps, float(probs_dict[label])))
+                log_odds.append(math.log(p) / T)
+
+            # Softmax re-normalization
+            max_lo = max(log_odds)
+            exp_vals = [math.exp(lo - max_lo) for lo in log_odds]
+            total = sum(exp_vals)
+
+            scaled = {}
+            for i, label in enumerate(labels):
+                scaled[label] = exp_vals[i] / total
+
+            return scaled
+
+        def _enrich_signal_entry(probs_dict: Dict[str, float]) -> Dict[str, Any]:
+            """Add pick, probability, confidence to a signal entry from its probs.
+
+            Applies temperature scaling to convert overconfident LightGBM outputs
+            into realistic, calibrated probabilities.
+            """
+            # Apply temperature scaling to soften extreme probabilities
+            scaled_probs = _temperature_scale(probs_dict, temperature=2.5)
+
+            best_label = max(scaled_probs, key=scaled_probs.get)
+            best_prob = float(scaled_probs[best_label])
+            return {
+                "probs": scaled_probs,
+                "raw_probs": probs_dict,  # keep originals for debugging
+                "pick": best_label,
+                "probability": best_prob,
+                "confidence": round(best_prob * 100.0, 1),
+            }
+
+        # Core markets using dedicated methods
+        h, d, a = v25.predict_ms(feature_row)
+        signal["MS"] = _enrich_signal_entry({"1": h, "X": d, "2": a})
+        print(f"  [V25-SIGNAL] MS → H={h:.4f} D={d:.4f} A={a:.4f}")
+
+        over25, under25 = v25.predict_ou25(feature_row)
+        signal["OU25"] = _enrich_signal_entry({"Over": over25, "Under": under25})
+        print(f"  [V25-SIGNAL] OU25 → O={over25:.4f} U={under25:.4f}")
+
+        btts_y, btts_n = v25.predict_btts(feature_row)
+        signal["BTTS"] = _enrich_signal_entry({"Yes": btts_y, "No": btts_n})
+        print(f"  [V25-SIGNAL] BTTS → Y={btts_y:.4f} N={btts_n:.4f}")
+
+        # Additional markets via generic predict_market
+        for model_key, label_map in [
+            ("ou15", {"Over": 0, "Under": None}),
+            ("ou35", {"Over": 0, "Under": None}),
+            ("ht_result", {"1": 0, "X": 1, "2": 2}),
+            ("ht_ou05", {"Over": 0, "Under": None}),
+            ("ht_ou15", {"Over": 0, "Under": None}),
+            ("htft", None),
+            ("cards_ou45", {"Over": 0, "Under": None}),
+            ("handicap_ms", {"1": 0, "X": 1, "2": 2}),
+            ("odd_even", {"Odd": 0, "Even": None}),
+        ]:
+            out_key = self._V25_KEY_MAP.get(model_key, model_key.upper())
+            if not v25.has_market(model_key):
+                continue
+            raw = v25.predict_market(model_key, feature_row)
+            if raw is None:
+                continue
+
+            if label_map is None:
+                # HTFT — 9 combinations
+                htft_labels = ["1/1", "1/X", "1/2", "X/1", "X/X", "X/2", "2/1", "2/X", "2/2"]
+                probs_dict = {}
+                for i, label in enumerate(htft_labels):
+                    probs_dict[label] = float(raw[i]) if i < len(raw) else 0.0
+                signal[out_key] = _enrich_signal_entry(probs_dict)
+            elif len(label_map) == 2:
+                # Binary market
+                labels = list(label_map.keys())
+                p = float(raw[0]) if len(raw) >= 1 else None
+                if p is None:
+                    print(f"  [V25-SIGNAL] {out_key} → EMPTY raw output, skipped")
+                    continue
+                signal[out_key] = _enrich_signal_entry({labels[0]: p, labels[1]: 1.0 - p})
+            elif len(label_map) == 3:
+                # 3-class market
+                labels = list(label_map.keys())
+                probs_dict = {}
+                for i, label in enumerate(labels):
+                    if i >= len(raw):
+                        print(f"  [V25-SIGNAL] {out_key} → insufficient probabilities in raw output")
+                        break
+                    probs_dict[label] = float(raw[i])
+                else:
+                    signal[out_key] = _enrich_signal_entry(probs_dict)
+
+            if out_key in signal:
+                print(f"  [V25-SIGNAL] {out_key} → {signal[out_key]['probs']}")
+
+        print(f"  [V25-SIGNAL] Total markets with real predictions: {len(signal)}")
+        if not signal:
+            raise RuntimeError("V25 model produced ZERO market predictions — cannot continue")
+
+        return signal
 
     @staticmethod
     def _prob_map(signal: Optional[Dict[str, Any]], market: str, defaults: Dict[str, float]) -> Dict[str, float]:
+        """Extract normalised probabilities from signal.
+
+        If the signal contains real model output for this market, use it.
+        If the market is missing from the signal, log a warning and return
+        the defaults as a LAST RESORT (so the pipeline doesn't crash).
+        The defaults are ONLY used for non-core / secondary markets that
+        may not have a trained model yet (e.g. CARDS, HCAP, OE).
+        """
         market_payload = signal.get(market, {}) if isinstance(signal, dict) else {}
         probs = market_payload.get("probs", {}) if isinstance(market_payload, dict) else {}
         if not isinstance(probs, dict) or not probs:
+            print(f"  ⚠️ [PROB_MAP] Market '{market}' NOT found in V25 signal — model output missing")
             return dict(defaults)
         out = {key: float(probs.get(key, value)) for key, value in defaults.items()}
         total = sum(out.values())
         if total <= 0:
+            print(f"  ⚠️ [PROB_MAP] Market '{market}' has zero total probability")
             return dict(defaults)
         return {key: value / total for key, value in out.items()}
 
@@ -730,7 +902,8 @@ class SingleMatchOrchestrator:
             prediction.cards_confidence,
             prediction.handicap_confidence,
         )
-        lineup_penalty = 12.0 if data.lineup_source == "none" else 7.0 if data.lineup_source == "probable_xi" else 0.0
+        lineup_conf = max(0.0, min(1.0, float(getattr(data, "lineup_confidence", 0.0) or 0.0)))
+        lineup_penalty = 12.0 if data.lineup_source == "none" else max(1.5, (1.0 - lineup_conf) * 8.0) if data.lineup_source == "probable_xi" else 0.0
         referee_penalty = 6.0 if not data.referee_name else 0.0
         parity_penalty = 8.0 if abs(ms_edge) < 0.08 else 0.0
         prediction.risk_score = round(min(100.0, max(10.0, 100.0 - max_market_conf + lineup_penalty + referee_penalty + parity_penalty)), 1)
@@ -747,6 +920,8 @@ class SingleMatchOrchestrator:
         prediction.risk_warnings = []
         if data.lineup_source == "probable_xi":
             prediction.risk_warnings.append("lineup_probable_not_confirmed")
+            if lineup_conf < 0.65:
+                prediction.risk_warnings.append("lineup_projection_low_confidence")
         if data.lineup_source == "none":
             prediction.risk_warnings.append("lineup_unavailable")
         if not data.referee_name:
@@ -1142,7 +1317,9 @@ class SingleMatchOrchestrator:
                         if band_val.get("is_value"):
                             boost = min(8.0, boost + 3.0)  # Triple confirmation extra boost
                         prediction.ms_confidence = min(95.0, prediction.ms_confidence + boost)
-                        base_package["prediction"]["ms_confidence"] = prediction.ms_confidence
+                        market_board = base_package.get("market_board")
+                        if isinstance(market_board, dict) and isinstance(market_board.get("MS"), dict):
+                            market_board["MS"]["confidence"] = round(float(prediction.ms_confidence), 1)
                         base_package["v27_engine"]["consensus"] = "AGREE"
                     else:
                         base_package["v27_engine"]["consensus"] = "DISAGREE"
@@ -1157,8 +1334,10 @@ class SingleMatchOrchestrator:
                 base_package.setdefault("analysis_details", {})
                 base_package["analysis_details"]["v27_loaded"] = False
 
-        mode = str(getattr(self, "engine_mode", "v25") or "v25").lower()
-        if mode not in {"v25", "v26", "dual"}:
+        base_package = self._apply_upper_brain_guards(base_package)
+
+        mode = str(getattr(self, "engine_mode", "v28-pro-max") or "v28-pro-max").lower()
+        if mode not in {"v25", "v26", "dual", "v28", "v28-pro-max"}:
             mode = "v25"
 
         quality = base_package.get("data_quality", self._compute_data_quality(data))
@@ -1185,6 +1364,304 @@ class SingleMatchOrchestrator:
             return merged
         return base_package
 
+    def _apply_upper_brain_guards(self, package: Dict[str, Any]) -> Dict[str, Any]:
+        return BettingBrain().judge(package)
+
+        v27_engine = package.get("v27_engine")
+        if not isinstance(v27_engine, dict) or not v27_engine.get("triple_value"):
+            return package
+
+        guarded = dict(package)
+        vetoed_keys = set()
+        guarded_keys = set()
+
+        def mark_guard(item: Dict[str, Any]) -> Dict[str, Any]:
+            if not isinstance(item, dict):
+                return item
+
+            out = dict(item)
+            assessment = self._upper_brain_assessment(out, guarded)
+            if not assessment.get("applies"):
+                return out
+
+            key = f"{out.get('market')}:{out.get('pick')}"
+            guarded_keys.add(key)
+            out["upper_brain"] = assessment
+
+            reason_key = "decision_reasons" if "decision_reasons" in out else "reasons"
+            reasons = list(out.get(reason_key) or [])
+            for reason in assessment.get("reason_codes", []):
+                if reason not in reasons:
+                    reasons.append(reason)
+            out[reason_key] = reasons[:6]
+
+            if assessment.get("veto"):
+                vetoed_keys.add(key)
+                out["playable"] = False
+                out["stake_units"] = 0.0
+                out["bet_grade"] = "PASS"
+                out["is_guaranteed"] = False
+                out["pick_reason"] = "upper_brain_veto"
+                if "signal_tier" in out:
+                    out["signal_tier"] = "PASS"
+            elif assessment.get("downgrade"):
+                out["is_guaranteed"] = False
+                if out.get("signal_tier") == "CORE":
+                    out["signal_tier"] = "LEAN"
+                if out.get("pick_reason") == "high_accuracy_market":
+                    out["pick_reason"] = "upper_brain_downgraded"
+
+            return out
+
+        main_pick = mark_guard(guarded.get("main_pick") or {})
+        value_pick = mark_guard(guarded.get("value_pick") or {}) if guarded.get("value_pick") else None
+        supporting = [
+            mark_guard(row)
+            for row in list(guarded.get("supporting_picks") or [])
+            if isinstance(row, dict)
+        ]
+        bet_summary = [
+            mark_guard(row)
+            for row in list(guarded.get("bet_summary") or [])
+            if isinstance(row, dict)
+        ]
+
+        main_safe = bool(main_pick and main_pick.get("playable") and not main_pick.get("upper_brain", {}).get("veto"))
+        if not main_safe:
+            candidates = [
+                row for row in supporting
+                if row.get("playable")
+                and not row.get("upper_brain", {}).get("veto")
+                and float(row.get("odds", 0.0) or 0.0) >= 1.30
+            ]
+            candidates.sort(key=lambda row: float(row.get("play_score", 0.0) or 0.0), reverse=True)
+            if candidates:
+                main_pick = dict(candidates[0])
+                main_pick["is_guaranteed"] = False
+                main_pick["pick_reason"] = "upper_brain_reselected"
+                reasons = list(main_pick.get("decision_reasons") or [])
+                if "upper_brain_reselected_after_veto" not in reasons:
+                    reasons.append("upper_brain_reselected_after_veto")
+                main_pick["decision_reasons"] = reasons[:6]
+            elif main_pick:
+                main_pick["is_guaranteed"] = False
+                main_pick["pick_reason"] = "upper_brain_no_safe_pick"
+
+        if main_pick:
+            supporting = [
+                row for row in supporting
+                if not (
+                    row.get("market") == main_pick.get("market")
+                    and row.get("pick") == main_pick.get("pick")
+                )
+            ][:6]
+
+        guarded["main_pick"] = main_pick if main_pick else None
+        guarded["value_pick"] = value_pick
+        guarded["supporting_picks"] = supporting
+        guarded["bet_summary"] = bet_summary
+
+        playable = bool(main_pick and main_pick.get("playable") and not main_pick.get("upper_brain", {}).get("veto"))
+        advice = dict(guarded.get("bet_advice") or {})
+        advice["playable"] = playable
+        advice["suggested_stake_units"] = float(main_pick.get("stake_units", 0.0)) if playable else 0.0
+        if playable:
+            advice["reason"] = "playable_pick_found"
+        elif vetoed_keys:
+            advice["reason"] = "upper_brain_no_safe_pick"
+        else:
+            advice["reason"] = "no_bet_conditions_met"
+        guarded["bet_advice"] = advice
+
+        guarded["upper_brain"] = {
+            "applied": True,
+            "guarded_count": len(guarded_keys),
+            "vetoed_count": len(vetoed_keys),
+            "vetoed": sorted(vetoed_keys)[:8],
+            "rules": {
+                "min_band_sample": 8,
+                "max_v25_v27_divergence": 0.18,
+                "dc_requires_triple_value": True,
+            },
+        }
+        guarded.setdefault("analysis_details", {})
+        guarded["analysis_details"]["upper_brain_guards_applied"] = True
+        guarded["analysis_details"]["upper_brain_vetoed_count"] = len(vetoed_keys)
+        return guarded
+
+    def _upper_brain_assessment(
+        self,
+        item: Dict[str, Any],
+        package: Dict[str, Any],
+    ) -> Dict[str, Any]:
+        market = str(item.get("market") or "")
+        pick = str(item.get("pick") or "")
+        if not market or not pick:
+            return {"applies": False}
+
+        v27_engine = package.get("v27_engine") or {}
+        triple_value = v27_engine.get("triple_value") or {}
+        model_prob = self._upper_brain_market_probability(item, package)
+        v27_prob = self._upper_brain_v27_probability(market, pick, v27_engine)
+        triple_key = self._upper_brain_triple_key(market, pick)
+        triple = triple_value.get(triple_key) if triple_key else None
+
+        veto = False
+        downgrade = False
+        reasons: List[str] = []
+        divergence = None
+
+        if model_prob is not None and v27_prob is not None:
+            divergence = abs(float(model_prob) - float(v27_prob))
+            if divergence >= 0.18:
+                veto = True
+                reasons.append("upper_brain_v25_v27_divergence")
+            elif divergence >= 0.12:
+                downgrade = True
+                reasons.append("upper_brain_v25_v27_warning")
+
+        if isinstance(triple, dict):
+            band_sample = int(float(triple.get("band_sample", 0) or 0))
+            is_value = bool(triple.get("is_value"))
+            if market == "DC":
+                if band_sample < 8:
+                    veto = True
+                    reasons.append("upper_brain_band_sample_too_low")
+                elif not is_value:
+                    veto = True
+                    reasons.append("upper_brain_triple_value_rejected")
+            elif market in {"MS", "OU25"} and band_sample > 0 and band_sample < 8:
+                downgrade = True
+                reasons.append("upper_brain_band_sample_thin")
+            elif market in {"OU15", "HT_OU05"} and band_sample < 8:
+                downgrade = True
+                reasons.append("upper_brain_band_sample_thin")
+
+        consensus = str(v27_engine.get("consensus") or "").upper()
+        if consensus == "DISAGREE" and market in {"MS", "DC"} and not veto:
+            downgrade = True
+            reasons.append("upper_brain_consensus_disagree")
+
+        applies = bool(reasons or triple is not None or v27_prob is not None)
+        return {
+            "applies": applies,
+            "veto": veto,
+            "downgrade": downgrade,
+            "reason_codes": reasons,
+            "model_prob": round(float(model_prob), 4) if model_prob is not None else None,
+            "v27_prob": round(float(v27_prob), 4) if v27_prob is not None else None,
+            "divergence": round(float(divergence), 4) if divergence is not None else None,
+            "triple_key": triple_key,
+            "triple_value": triple,
+        }
+
+    def _upper_brain_market_probability(
+        self,
+        item: Dict[str, Any],
+        package: Dict[str, Any],
+    ) -> Optional[float]:
+        raw_prob = item.get("probability")
+        if raw_prob is not None:
+            try:
+                return float(raw_prob)
+            except (TypeError, ValueError):
+                pass
+
+        market = str(item.get("market") or "")
+        pick = str(item.get("pick") or "")
+        board = package.get("market_board") or {}
+        payload = board.get(market) if isinstance(board, dict) else None
+        probs = payload.get("probs") if isinstance(payload, dict) else None
+        if not isinstance(probs, dict):
+            return None
+
+        prob_key = self._upper_brain_prob_key(market, pick)
+        if prob_key is None:
+            return None
+        try:
+            return float(probs.get(prob_key))
+        except (TypeError, ValueError):
+            return None
+
+    def _upper_brain_v27_probability(
+        self,
+        market: str,
+        pick: str,
+        v27_engine: Dict[str, Any],
+    ) -> Optional[float]:
+        predictions = v27_engine.get("predictions") or {}
+        ms = predictions.get("ms") or {}
+        ou25 = predictions.get("ou25") or {}
+
+        if market == "MS":
+            return self._safe_float(ms.get({"1": "home", "X": "draw", "2": "away"}.get(pick, "")))
+        if market == "DC":
+            if pick == "1X":
+                return self._safe_float(ms.get("home"), 0.0) + self._safe_float(ms.get("draw"), 0.0)
+            if pick == "X2":
+                return self._safe_float(ms.get("draw"), 0.0) + self._safe_float(ms.get("away"), 0.0)
+            if pick == "12":
+                return self._safe_float(ms.get("home"), 0.0) + self._safe_float(ms.get("away"), 0.0)
+        if market == "OU25":
+            prob_key = self._upper_brain_prob_key(market, pick)
+            return self._safe_float(ou25.get(prob_key)) if prob_key else None
+        return None
+
+    @staticmethod
+    def _upper_brain_prob_key(market: str, pick: str) -> Optional[str]:
+        pick_norm = str(pick or "").strip().casefold()
+        if market in {"MS", "HT", "HCAP"}:
+            return pick if pick in {"1", "X", "2"} else None
+        if market == "DC":
+            return pick.upper() if pick.upper() in {"1X", "X2", "12"} else None
+        if market in {"OU15", "OU25", "OU35", "HT_OU05", "HT_OU15", "CARDS"}:
+            if "over" in pick_norm or "st" in pick_norm:
+                return "over"
+            if "under" in pick_norm or "alt" in pick_norm:
+                return "under"
+        if market == "BTTS":
+            if "yes" in pick_norm or "var" in pick_norm:
+                return "yes"
+            if "no" in pick_norm or "yok" in pick_norm:
+                return "no"
+        if market == "OE":
+            if "odd" in pick_norm or "tek" in pick_norm:
+                return "odd"
+            if "even" in pick_norm or "ift" in pick_norm:
+                return "even"
+        if market == "HTFT" and "/" in pick:
+            return pick
+        return None
+
+    def _upper_brain_triple_key(self, market: str, pick: str) -> Optional[str]:
+        prob_key = self._upper_brain_prob_key(market, pick)
+        if market == "MS":
+            return {"1": "home", "2": "away"}.get(pick)
+        if market == "DC":
+            return f"dc_{pick.lower()}" if pick.upper() in {"1X", "X2", "12"} else None
+        if market in {"OU15", "OU25", "OU35"} and prob_key == "over":
+            return f"{market.lower()}_over"
+        if market == "BTTS" and prob_key == "yes":
+            return "btts_yes"
+        if market == "HT":
+            return {"1": "ht_home", "2": "ht_away"}.get(pick)
+        if market in {"HT_OU05", "HT_OU15"} and prob_key == "over":
+            return f"{market.lower()}_over"
+        if market == "OE" and prob_key == "odd":
+            return "oe_odd"
+        if market == "CARDS" and prob_key == "over":
+            return "cards_over"
+        if market == "HTFT" and "/" in pick:
+            return f"htft_{pick.replace('/', '').lower()}"
+        return None
+
+    @staticmethod
+    def _safe_float(value: Any, default: Optional[float] = None) -> Optional[float]:
+        try:
+            return float(value)
+        except (TypeError, ValueError):
+            return default
+
     def analyze_match_htms(self, match_id: str) -> Optional[Dict[str, Any]]:
         """
         HT/MS focused response for upset-hunting workflows.
@@ -2104,7 +2581,7 @@ class SingleMatchOrchestrator:
                     return None
 
                 odds_data = self._extract_odds(cur, row)
-                home_lineup, away_lineup, lineup_source = self._extract_lineups(cur, row)
+                home_lineup, away_lineup, lineup_source, lineup_confidence = self._extract_lineups(cur, row)
                 sidelined = self._parse_json_dict(row.get("sidelined"))
                 match_date_ms = int(row.get("match_date_ms") or 0)
                 league_id = str(row.get("league_id")) if row.get("league_id") else None
@@ -2159,6 +2636,7 @@ class SingleMatchOrchestrator:
                     status=str(row.get("status") or ""),
                     state=row.get("state"),
                     substate=row.get("substate"),
+                    lineup_confidence=lineup_confidence,
                     current_score_home=(
                         int(row.get("score_home"))
                         if row.get("score_home") is not None
@@ -2291,13 +2769,26 @@ class SingleMatchOrchestrator:
         self,
         cur: RealDictCursor,
         row: Dict[str, Any],
-    ) -> Tuple[Optional[List[str]], Optional[List[str]], str]:
+    ) -> Tuple[Optional[List[str]], Optional[List[str]], str, float]:
         live_lineups = row.get("lineups")
-        home, away = self._parse_lineups_json(live_lineups)
+        status_upper = str(row.get("status") or "").upper()
+        state_upper = str(row.get("state") or "").upper()
+        substate_upper = str(row.get("substate") or "").upper()
+        can_trust_feed_lineups = (
+            status_upper in {"LIVE", "1H", "2H", "HT", "FT", "FINISHED"}
+            or state_upper in {"LIVE", "FIRSTHALF", "SECONDHALF", "POSTGAME", "POST_GAME"}
+            or substate_upper in {"LIVE", "FIRSTHALF", "SECONDHALF"}
+        )
+        home, away = self._parse_lineups_json(live_lineups) if can_trust_feed_lineups else (None, None)
         if (home and len(home) >= 9) and (away and len(away) >= 9):
-            return home, away, "confirmed_live"
+            return home, away, "confirmed_live", 1.0
 
-        # fallback 1: current match participation table
+        home_id = str(row["home_team_id"])
+        away_id = str(row["away_team_id"])
+
+        # fallback 1: current match participation table.
+        # Trust this only for live/finished matches; pre-match rows can be stale feed snapshots.
+        if can_trust_feed_lineups:
             cur.execute(
                 """
                 SELECT team_id, player_id
@@ -2307,8 +2798,6 @@ class SingleMatchOrchestrator:
                 """,
                 (row["match_id"],),
             )
-        home_id = str(row["home_team_id"])
-        away_id = str(row["away_team_id"])
             rows = cur.fetchall()
             if rows:
                 home_players = [str(r["player_id"]) for r in rows if str(r["team_id"]) == home_id]
@@ -2318,21 +2807,40 @@ class SingleMatchOrchestrator:
                 if not away and away_players:
                     away = away_players
                 if (home and len(home) >= 9) and (away and len(away) >= 9):
-                return home, away, "confirmed_participation"
+                    return home, away, "confirmed_participation", 0.98
 
         # fallback 2: probable XI from historical starts before match date
         before_date_ms = int(row.get("match_date_ms") or 0)
+        sidelined = self._parse_json_dict(row.get("sidelined")) or {}
+        home_excluded = self._sidelined_player_ids(sidelined.get("homeTeam"))
+        away_excluded = self._sidelined_player_ids(sidelined.get("awayTeam"))
         used_probable = False
-        if not home:
-            home = self._build_probable_xi(cur, home_id, before_date_ms)
+        home_conf = 0.0
+        away_conf = 0.0
+        if not home or len(home) < 9:
+            home, home_conf = self._build_probable_xi(
+                cur,
+                home_id,
+                before_date_ms,
+                excluded_player_ids=home_excluded,
+            )
             used_probable = used_probable or bool(home)
-        if not away:
-            away = self._build_probable_xi(cur, away_id, before_date_ms)
+        if not away or len(away) < 9:
+            away, away_conf = self._build_probable_xi(
+                cur,
+                away_id,
+                before_date_ms,
+                excluded_player_ids=away_excluded,
+            )
             used_probable = used_probable or bool(away)
 
         if used_probable:
-            return home, away, "probable_xi"
-        return home, away, "none"
+            inferred_conf = min(
+                home_conf if home else 0.0,
+                away_conf if away else 0.0,
+            )
+            return home, away, "probable_xi", inferred_conf
+        return home, away, "none", 0.0
 
     def _calculate_team_form(
         self,
@@ -2445,35 +2953,172 @@ class SingleMatchOrchestrator:
         cur: RealDictCursor,
         team_id: str,
         before_date_ms: int,
-        max_days: int = 30,
-    ) -> Optional[List[str]]:
+        match_limit: int = 5,
+        lookback_days: int = 370,
+        max_staleness_days: int = 120,
+        excluded_player_ids: Optional[Set[str]] = None,
+    ) -> Tuple[Optional[List[str]], float]:
         if not team_id:
-            return None
+            return None, 0.0
+        min_date_ms = max(0, before_date_ms - (lookback_days * 24 * 60 * 60 * 1000))
 
-        min_date_ms = max(0, before_date_ms - (max_days * 24 * 60 * 60 * 1000))
         cur.execute(
             """
             SELECT
                 mpp.player_id,
-                COUNT(*) AS starts,
-                MAX(m.mst_utc) AS last_start_ms
+                m.id AS match_id,
+                m.mst_utc,
+                m.home_team_id,
+                m.away_team_id
             FROM match_player_participation mpp
             JOIN matches m ON m.id = mpp.match_id
             WHERE mpp.team_id = %s
               AND mpp.is_starting = true
-              AND m.status = 'FT'
-              AND m.mst_utc < %s
-              AND m.mst_utc >= %s
-            GROUP BY mpp.player_id
-            ORDER BY starts DESC, last_start_ms DESC
-            LIMIT 11
+              AND NOT EXISTS (
+                  SELECT 1
+                  FROM match_player_participation later_mpp
+                  JOIN matches later_m ON later_m.id = later_mpp.match_id
+                  WHERE later_mpp.player_id = mpp.player_id
+                    AND later_mpp.team_id <> %s
+                    AND later_m.mst_utc > m.mst_utc
+                    AND later_m.mst_utc < %s
+                    AND (
+                      later_m.status = 'FT'
+                      OR later_m.state = 'postGame'
+                      OR (later_m.score_home IS NOT NULL AND later_m.score_away IS NOT NULL)
+                    )
+              )
+              AND m.id IN (
+                  SELECT m2.id
+                  FROM matches m2
+                  JOIN match_player_participation recent_mpp
+                    ON recent_mpp.match_id = m2.id
+                   AND recent_mpp.team_id = %s
+                   AND recent_mpp.is_starting = true
+                  WHERE (m2.home_team_id = %s OR m2.away_team_id = %s)
+                    AND (
+                      m2.status = 'FT'
+                      OR m2.state = 'postGame'
+                      OR (m2.score_home IS NOT NULL AND m2.score_away IS NOT NULL)
+                    )
+                    AND m2.mst_utc < %s
+                    AND m2.mst_utc >= %s
+                  GROUP BY m2.id
+                  HAVING COUNT(recent_mpp.*) >= 9
+                  ORDER BY MAX(m2.mst_utc) DESC
+                  LIMIT %s
+              )
+            ORDER BY m.mst_utc DESC
             """,
-            (team_id, before_date_ms, min_date_ms),
+            (
+                team_id,
+                team_id,
+                before_date_ms,
+                team_id,
+                team_id,
+                team_id,
+                before_date_ms,
+                min_date_ms,
+                match_limit,
+            ),
         )
         rows = cur.fetchall()
         if not rows:
-            return None
-        return [str(r["player_id"]) for r in rows]
+            return None, 0.0
+
+        latest_mst = max(int(row.get("mst_utc") or 0) for row in rows)
+        age_days = (before_date_ms - latest_mst) / (24 * 60 * 60 * 1000)
+        stale_projection = age_days > max_staleness_days
+
+        excluded = {str(pid) for pid in (excluded_player_ids or set()) if pid}
+        match_order: Dict[str, int] = {}
+        for row in rows:
+            match_id = str(row["match_id"])
+            if match_id not in match_order:
+                match_order[match_id] = len(match_order)
+
+        player_scores: Dict[str, Dict[str, float]] = {}
+        for row in rows:
+            player_id = str(row["player_id"])
+            if player_id in excluded:
+                continue
+
+            idx = match_order.get(str(row["match_id"]), match_limit)
+            recency_weight = max(1.0, float(match_limit - idx))
+            score = recency_weight
+            if idx == 0:
+                score += 3.0
+            elif idx == 1:
+                score += 1.5
+
+            stats = player_scores.setdefault(
+                player_id,
+                {
+                    "score": 0.0,
+                    "starts": 0.0,
+                    "last_seen_rank": float(idx),
+                },
+            )
+            stats["score"] += score
+            stats["starts"] += 1.0
+            stats["last_seen_rank"] = min(stats["last_seen_rank"], float(idx))
+
+        if not player_scores:
+            return None, 0.0
+
+        ranked = sorted(
+            player_scores.items(),
+            key=lambda item: (
+                item[1]["score"],
+                item[1]["starts"],
+                -item[1]["last_seen_rank"],
+            ),
+            reverse=True,
+        )
+        lineup = [player_id for player_id, _ in ranked[:11]]
+
+        coverage = min(1.0, len(lineup) / 11.0)
+        available_matches = max(1, len(match_order))
+        history_score = min(1.0, available_matches / float(match_limit))
+        core_stability = 0.0
+        if ranked:
+            stable_core = sum(1 for _, stats in ranked[:11] if stats["starts"] >= 2.0)
+            core_stability = stable_core / 11.0
+
+        staleness_factor = max(
+            0.35,
+            min(1.0, float(max_staleness_days) / max(age_days, 1.0)),
+        )
+        confidence = (
+            (coverage * 0.45) + (history_score * 0.25) + (core_stability * 0.30)
+        ) * staleness_factor
+        if excluded:
+            confidence *= 0.92
+
+        confidence_cap = 0.58 if stale_projection else 0.88
+        return lineup or None, round(max(0.0, min(confidence_cap, confidence)), 3)
+
+    @staticmethod
+    def _sidelined_player_ids(team_data: Any) -> Set[str]:
+        if not isinstance(team_data, dict):
+            return set()
+        players = team_data.get("players")
+        if not isinstance(players, list):
+            return set()
+
+        ids: Set[str] = set()
+        for player in players:
+            if not isinstance(player, dict):
+                continue
+            player_id = (
+                player.get("playerId")
+                or player.get("player_id")
+                or player.get("id")
+                or player.get("personId")
+            )
+            if player_id:
+                ids.add(str(player_id))
+        return ids
 
     def _parse_odds_json(self, odds_json: Any) -> Dict[str, float]:
         odds_json = self._parse_json_dict(odds_json)
@@ -4267,7 +4912,8 @@ class SingleMatchOrchestrator:
         lineup_sensitive = market in ("MS", "BTTS", "HT", "HTFT")
         lineup_penalty = 5.0 if lineup_missing and lineup_sensitive else 0.0
         if data.lineup_source == "probable_xi" and lineup_sensitive:
-            lineup_penalty += 4.0
+            lineup_conf = max(0.0, min(1.0, float(getattr(data, "lineup_confidence", 0.0) or 0.0)))
+            lineup_penalty += max(1.0, (1.0 - lineup_conf) * 5.0)
 
         # V31: edge contribution weighted by league odds reliability
         base_score = calibrated_conf + (simple_edge * 100.0 * edge_multiplier)
@@ -4438,8 +5084,11 @@ class SingleMatchOrchestrator:
         away_n = len(data.away_lineup or [])
         lineup_score = min(home_n, away_n) / 11.0 if min(home_n, away_n) > 0 else 0.0
         if data.lineup_source == "probable_xi":
-            lineup_score *= 0.55
+            lineup_conf = max(0.0, min(1.0, float(getattr(data, "lineup_confidence", 0.0) or 0.0)))
+            lineup_score *= max(0.45, min(0.88, lineup_conf))
             flags.append("lineup_probable_not_confirmed")
+            if lineup_conf < 0.65:
+                flags.append("lineup_projection_low_confidence")
         elif data.lineup_source == "none":
             flags.append("lineup_unavailable")
         if lineup_score < 0.7:
@@ -4464,6 +5113,7 @@ class SingleMatchOrchestrator:
             "home_lineup_count": home_n,
             "away_lineup_count": away_n,
             "lineup_source": data.lineup_source,
+            "lineup_confidence": round(float(getattr(data, "lineup_confidence", 0.0) or 0.0), 3),
             "flags": flags,
         }
 

mds/v28-pro-max-architecture.md

@@ -0,0 +1,370 @@
+# V28-Pro-Max Model Architecture Documentation
+
+> **Model Version:** `v28-pro-max`  
+> **Engine File:** `ai-engine/services/single_match_orchestrator.py` (4656 satır)  
+> **Son Güncelleme:** 2026-04-24
+
+---
+
+## 1. Genel Bakış
+
+V28-Pro-Max, üç bağımsız tahmin katmanını (V25, V27, V28) tek bir orchestrator içinde birleştiren **üçlü hibrit AI tahmin motorudur**. Her maç için 13+ bahis pazarını analiz eder, olasılık hesaplar, risk değerlendirir ve "Value Bet" tespiti yapar.
+
+```
+┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
+│              SingleMatchOrchestrator                │
+│                                                     │
+│  ┌──────────┐  ┌──────────┐  ┌────────────────┐   │
+│  │ V25      │  │ V27      │  │ V28            │   │
+│  │ Ensemble │  │ Dual-Eng │  │ Odds-Band      │   │
+│  │ (XGB+LGB)│  │ Divergnce│  │ Historical     │   │
+│  └────┬─────┘  └────┬─────┘  └───────┬────────┘   │
+│       │              │                │             │
+│       └──────────────┼────────────────┘             │
+│                      ▼                              │
+│           FullMatchPrediction                       │
+│                      │                              │
+│          ┌───────────┼───────────┐                  │
+│          ▼           ▼           ▼                  │
+│    Market Rows   Risk Calc   Triple Value           │
+│          │           │           │                   │
+│          └───────────┼───────────┘                  │
+│                      ▼                              │
+│          _build_prediction_package()                │
+│          → JSON Response (v28-pro-max)              │
+└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
+```
+
+---
+
+## 2. Katman Detayları
+
+### 2.1 V25 — Ensemble ML Katmanı
+**Dosya:** `ai-engine/models/v25_ensemble.py`
+
+- **Algoritmalar:** XGBoost + LightGBM ensemble
+- **Girdi:** Pre-match feature vektörü (form, elo, odds, kadro, hakem vb.)
+- **Çıktı:** Tüm pazarlar için olasılık dağılımları + confidence skorları
+- **Özellik:** Odds-aware (bahis oranlarını feature olarak kullanır)
+- **Target leakage koruması:** Maç sonucu bilgisi asla feature olarak kullanılmaz
+
+```python
+# V25 çağrılma noktası (orchestrator L310-315)
+v25_signal = v25_predictor.predict(features)
+# Çıktı: {MS: {home: 0.45, draw: 0.28, away: 0.27}, OU25: {...}, BTTS: {...}, ...}
+```
+
+### 2.2 V27 — Dual-Engine Divergence Katmanı
+**Dosya:** `ai-engine/models/v27_predictor.py`
+
+- **Amaç:** Odds-FREE temel olasılıkları hesaplar (sadece form/elo/kadro)
+- **Mekanizma:** V25 (odds-aware) vs V27 (odds-free) karşılaştırması
+- **Divergence Tespiti:** İki motor arasındaki fark → bahisçinin fiyatlandırma hatasını tespit eder
+- **Çıktı:** `ms_divergence`, `ou25_divergence`, `is_value` sinyalleri
+
+```python
+# Divergence hesaplama (orchestrator L830-863)
+ms_divergence = {
+    "home": v25_home_prob - v27_home_prob,  # Pozitif = V25 bahisçiyle hemfikir
+    "away": v25_away_prob - v27_away_prob,  # Negatif = Model bahisçiden farklı düşünüyor
+}
+ms_value = {
+    "home": {"is_value": v27_home > implied_home and abs(div) > 0.05},
+    "away": {"is_value": v27_away > implied_away and abs(div) > 0.05},
+}
+```
+
+### 2.3 V28 — Odds-Band Historical Performance Katmanı
+**Dosya:** `ai-engine/features/odds_band_analyzer.py`
+
+- **Amaç:** "Bu oran bandında tarihsel olarak ne oldu?" sorusunu yanıtlar
+- **Mekanizma:** Maçın mevcut oranını bir banda yerleştirir (ör: MS Home 1.70-1.90), ardından veritabanındaki aynı banddaki geçmiş maçları sorgular
+- **Sorgu:** PostgreSQL üzerinden takım-spesifik tarihsel performans
+
+```python
+# OddsBandAnalyzer.compute_all() çıktısı — 18 pazar için band metrikleri:
+{
+    "home_band_ms_win_rate": 0.62,      # Ev sahibi bu oran bandında %62 kazanmış
+    "home_band_ms_sample": 34,          # 34 maçlık örneklem
+    "band_ou25_over_rate": 0.58,        # Bu banddaki maçların %58'i 2.5 üst
+    "band_btts_yes_rate": 0.51,         # KG Var oranı
+    "band_htft_11_rate": 0.28,          # İY/MS 1/1 oranı
+    "band_cards_referee_avg": 4.2,      # Hakem kart ortalaması
+    # ... toplam 60+ feature
+}
+```
+
+---
+
+## 3. Analiz Edilen Bahis Pazarları (13+)
+
+| # | Pazar | Kod | Olasılık Alanları | Odds Anahtarları |
+|---|-------|-----|-------------------|------------------|
+| 1 | Maç Sonucu | `MS` | home/draw/away | ms_h, ms_d, ms_a |
+| 2 | Çifte Şans | `DC` | 1X/X2/12 | dc_1x, dc_x2, dc_12 |
+| 3 | Üst/Alt 1.5 | `OU15` | over/under | ou15_o, ou15_u |
+| 4 | Üst/Alt 2.5 | `OU25` | over/under | ou25_o, ou25_u |
+| 5 | Üst/Alt 3.5 | `OU35` | over/under | ou35_o, ou35_u |
+| 6 | Karşılıklı Gol | `BTTS` | yes/no | btts_y, btts_n |
+| 7 | İlk Yarı Sonucu | `HT` | 1/X/2 | ht_h, ht_d, ht_a |
+| 8 | İY/MS (9 kombo) | `HTFT` | 1/1, 1/X, 1/2, X/1, X/X, X/2, 2/1, 2/X, 2/2 | htft_11..htft_22 |
+| 9 | Tek/Çift | `OE` | odd/even | oe_odd, oe_even |
+| 10 | İY Üst/Alt 0.5 | `HT_OU05` | over/under | ht_ou05_o, ht_ou05_u |
+| 11 | İY Üst/Alt 1.5 | `HT_OU15` | over/under | ht_ou15_o, ht_ou15_u |
+| 12 | Kartlar | `CARDS` | over/under | cards_o, cards_u |
+| 13 | Handikap | `HCAP` | 1/X/2 | hcap_h, hcap_d, hcap_a |
+
+---
+
+## 4. Triple Value Detection (V28 Ana Yeniliği)
+
+V28'in en kritik özelliği: **3 bağımsız kaynağı çapraz kontrol ederek "gerçek değer" tespiti yapması.**
+
+```
+Triple Value = V27 Divergence + V28 Band Rate + Odds Implied Probability
+
+Koşullar (hepsi sağlanmalı):
+  1. V27 olasılığı > bahisçi implied olasılığı  (v27_confirms)
+  2. Band tarihsel oranı > implied olasılık       (band_confirms)
+  3. Kombine edge > %5                            (edge > 0.05)
+  4. Band örneklem >= 8 maç                        (band_sample >= 8)
+
+→ Tüm koşullar sağlanırsa: is_value = True
+```
+
+**Örnek:**
+```
+Galatasaray vs Beşiktaş — MS Home (1.85 oran)
+├── Implied Prob: 1/1.85 = 0.54 (%54)
+├── V27 (odds-free): 0.61 (%61) → ✅ V27 confirms (0.61 > 0.54)
+├── V28 Band Rate: 0.62 (%62, 34 maç) → ✅ Band confirms (0.62 > 0.54)
+├── Combined Prob: (0.61 + 0.62) / 2 = 0.615
+├── Edge: 0.615 - 0.54 = 0.075 (%7.5) → ✅ Edge > 5%
+└── is_value = TRUE → "Bu bahis değerli!"
+```
+
+---
+
+## 5. Market Row Dekorasyon Pipeline'ı
+
+Her pazar aşağıdaki pipeline'dan geçer:
+
+```
+_build_market_rows()          → Ham market row'ları oluştur (13 pazar)
+    ↓
+_apply_market_consistency()   → Pazarlar arası tutarlılık kontrolü
+    ↓
+_decorate_market_row()        → Her row'a playability, grading, staking ekle
+    ↓
+Sort by (playable, play_score) → En iyi pick'ler başa gelir
+```
+
+### 5.1 Decorate Market Row — Quant Hybrid Sistemi
+
+Her market row şu metriklerle dekore edilir:
+
+| Metrik | Formül | Açıklama |
+|--------|--------|----------|
+| `calibrated_confidence` | `raw_conf × market_calibration` | Kalibre edilmiş güven |
+| `ev_edge` | `(prob × odds) - 1.0` | Expected Value edge |
+| `simple_edge` | `prob - (1/odds)` | Basit olasılık farkı |
+| `play_score` | `cal_conf + (edge × 100 × edge_mult) - penalties` | Oynanabilirlik skoru |
+| `stake_units` | Quarter-Kelly Criterion | Önerilen bahis miktarı |
+| `bet_grade` | A/B/C/PASS | EV edge bazlı not |
+
+### 5.2 Playability Gates (Güvenlik Kapıları)
+
+Bir market row'un "playable" olması için tüm kapılardan geçmesi gerekir:
+
+1. **Confidence Gate:** `calibrated_conf >= min_conf` (pazar bazlı eşik)
+2. **Odds Gate:** Odds-required pazarlarda `odds > 1.01`
+3. **Risk-Quality Gate:** HIGH/EXTREME risk + LOW kalite → BLOK
+4. **Negative Edge Gate:** `simple_edge < neg_threshold` → BLOK
+5. **EV Edge Gate:** `ev_edge < min_edge` → BLOK
+6. **Play Score Gate:** `play_score < min_play_score` → BLOK
+
+### 5.3 Kelly Criterion Staking
+
+```python
+# Quarter-Kelly (¼ Kelly, 10-unit bankroll)
+f* = ((b × p) - q) / b    # Full Kelly
+stake = f* × 0.25 × 10    # Quarter Kelly × bankroll
+stake = min(stake, 3.0)    # Cap: max 3 unit
+stake = max(stake, 0.25)   # Floor: min 0.25 unit
+```
+
+---
+
+## 6. Guaranteed Pick Logic (V32 Calibration-Aware)
+
+Ana pick seçimi 4 öncelik sırasıyla yapılır:
+
+```
+Priority 1: HIGH_ACCURACY markets (DC, OU15, HT_OU05)
+            + Odds >= 1.30 + Confidence >= 44%
+            → is_guaranteed = True, reason = "high_accuracy_market"
+
+Priority 2: Any playable + Odds >= 1.30 + Conf >= 44%
+            → is_guaranteed = True, reason = "confidence_threshold_met"
+
+Priority 3: Any playable + Odds >= 1.30
+            → is_guaranteed = False, reason = "odds_only_fallback"
+
+Priority 4: Best non-playable (last resort)
+            → is_guaranteed = False, reason = "last_resort"
+```
+
+**Value Pick:** `main_pick`'ten farklı, odds >= 1.60, confidence >= %40 olan en iyi alternatif.
+
+**Aggressive Pick:** HT/FT reversal senaryoları (1/2, 2/1, X/1, X/2) arasından en yüksek olasılıklı.
+
+---
+
+## 7. Risk Assessment Sistemi
+
+```python
+risk_score = 100 - max_market_conf + lineup_penalty + referee_penalty + parity_penalty
+
+# Penalty'ler:
+lineup_penalty  = 12.0 (kadro yok) | 7.0 (probable_xi) | 0.0 (confirmed)
+referee_penalty = 6.0 (hakem yok) | 0.0
+parity_penalty  = 8.0 (|ms_edge| < 0.08) | 0.0
+
+# Risk seviyeleri:
+EXTREME: score >= 78
+HIGH:    score >= 62
+MEDIUM:  score >= 40
+LOW:     score < 40
+```
+
+### Surprise Risk Tespiti
+- `is_surprise_risk = True` → Risk HIGH/EXTREME VEYA draw_prob >= %30
+- `surprise_type`: `balanced_match_risk` veya `draw_pressure`
+
+---
+
+## 8. xG ve Skor Tahmini
+
+```python
+base_home_xg = (home_goals_avg + away_xga) / 2
+base_away_xg = (away_goals_avg + home_xga) / 2
+
+# MS edge ve BTTS etkisiyle düzeltme:
+home_xg = base_home_xg + (ms_edge × 0.55) + (btts_prob - 0.5) × 0.18
+away_xg = base_away_xg - (ms_edge × 0.55) + (btts_prob - 0.5) × 0.18
+
+# Liga ortalamasıyla ölçekleme:
+total_target = league_avg_goals × 0.55 + team_avgs × 0.45 + ou25_signal × 1.15
+scale = total_target / (home_xg + away_xg)
+final_home_xg = home_xg × scale
+final_away_xg = away_xg × scale
+
+# Skor tahmini:
+FT = round(home_xg) - round(away_xg)
+HT = round(home_xg × 0.45) - round(away_xg × 0.45)
+Top5 = Poisson dağılımı ile en olası 5 skor
+```
+
+---
+
+## 9. Data Quality Skoru
+
+```python
+quality_score = odds_score × 0.35 + lineup_score × 0.35 + ref_score × 0.15 + form_score × 0.15
+
+# Etiketleme:
+HIGH:   score >= 0.75
+MEDIUM: score >= 0.45
+LOW:    score < 0.45
+```
+
+---
+
+## 10. Çıktı JSON Kontratı
+
+```json
+{
+  "model_version": "v28-pro-max",
+  "match_info": { "match_id", "home_team", "away_team", "league", ... },
+  "data_quality": { "label", "score", "lineup_source", "flags" },
+  "risk": { "level", "score", "is_surprise_risk", "warnings" },
+  "engine_breakdown": { "team", "player", "odds", "referee" },
+  "main_pick": { "market", "pick", "confidence", "odds", "ev_edge", "bet_grade", "is_guaranteed" },
+  "value_pick": { ... },
+  "aggressive_pick": { "market": "HT/FT", "pick": "1/2", ... },
+  "bet_advice": { "playable", "suggested_stake_units", "reason" },
+  "bet_summary": [ { "market", "pick", "calibrated_confidence", "bet_grade", "ev_edge", ... } ],
+  "supporting_picks": [ ... ],
+  "score_prediction": { "ft", "ht", "xg_home", "xg_away", "xg_total" },
+  "scenario_top5": [ "1-0", "2-1", ... ],
+  "market_board": { "MS": {...}, "DC": {...}, "OU25": {...}, ... },
+  "v25_signal": { "available", "markets", "value_bets" },
+  "reasoning_factors": [ ... ]
+}
+```
+
+---
+
+## 11. League-Specific Odds Reliability (V31)
+
+Bazı liglerin bahis oranları daha güvenilirdir. Bu bilgi `_decorate_market_row` içinde edge ağırlıklandırmasında kullanılır:
+
+```python
+odds_rel = league_reliability.get(league_id, 0.35)  # 0.0 - 1.0
+edge_multiplier = 0.60 + (odds_rel × 0.60)          # 0.60 - 1.20
+
+# Güvenilir lig → edge daha fazla ağırlık alır
+# Güvenilsiz lig → model confidence'a daha çok güvenilir
+```
+
+---
+
+## 12. Dosya Haritası
+
+```
+ai-engine/
+├── services/
+│   └── single_match_orchestrator.py  ← Ana orchestrator (4656 satır)
+├── models/
+│   ├── v25_ensemble.py               ← XGBoost + LightGBM ensemble
+│   └── v27_predictor.py              ← Odds-free fundamental predictor
+├── features/
+│   └── odds_band_analyzer.py         ← V28 tarihsel band analizi
+└── main.py                           ← FastAPI endpoint (/predict)
+```
+
+---
+
+## 13. Akış Özeti
+
+```
+HTTP POST /predict {match_id}
+    │
+    ▼
+SingleMatchOrchestrator.analyze_match(match_id)
+    │
+    ├── _load_match_data()         → DB'den maç + odds + kadro + form
+    │
+    ├── V25: v25_predictor.predict(features)
+    │        → 13 pazar olasılık + confidence
+    │
+    ├── V27: v27_predictor.predict(features)
+    │        → Odds-free MS/OU25 olasılıkları
+    │        → Divergence hesaplama
+    │
+    ├── V28: odds_band_analyzer.compute_all()
+    │        → 18 pazar için tarihsel band metrikleri
+    │
+    ├── Triple Value Detection
+    │        → V27 + V28 + Implied çapraz kontrol
+    │
+    ├── _enrich_prediction()       → xG, risk, skor tahmini
+    │
+    ├── _build_market_rows()       → 13+ ham market row
+    ├── _apply_market_consistency()
+    ├── _decorate_market_row()     → EV, Kelly, grading
+    │
+    ├── Guaranteed Pick Selection  → main_pick, value_pick, aggressive_pick
+    │
+    └── _build_prediction_package() → Final JSON kontratı
+```

package.json

@@ -22,7 +22,7 @@
     "ai:backtest": "python ai-engine/scripts/backtest_v2_runtime.py",
     "ai:train:vqwen": "python ai-engine/scripts/train_vqwen_v3.py",
     "feeder:historical": "ts-node -r tsconfig-paths/register src/scripts/run-feeder.ts",
-    "feeder:previous-day": "ts-node -r tsconfig-paths/register src/scripts/run-feeder.ts",
+    "feeder:previous-day": "ts-node -r tsconfig-paths/register src/scripts/run-feeder-previous-day.ts",
     "feeder:fill-gaps": "ts-node -r tsconfig-paths/register src/scripts/run-feeder-filtered.ts",
     "feeder:basketball": "ts-node -r tsconfig-paths/register src/scripts/run-feeder-basketball.ts",
     "feeder:live": "ts-node -r tsconfig-paths/register src/scripts/run-live-feeder.ts",

src/modules/feeder/feeder-persistence.service.ts

@@ -856,19 +856,46 @@ export class FeederPersistenceService {
     const matches = await this.prisma.match.findMany({
       where: {
         id: { in: matchIds },
-        AND: [
-          { oddCategories: { some: {} } },
-          {
+        oddCategories: { some: {} },
         OR: [
-              { footballTeamStats: { some: {} } },
-              { basketballTeamStats: { some: {} } },
-            ],
+          {
+            sport: "football",
+            footballTeamStats: { some: {} },
+            playerParticipations: { some: { isStarting: true } },
+          },
+          {
+            sport: "basketball",
+            basketballTeamStats: { some: {} },
+            basketballPlayerStats: { some: {} },
           },
         ],
       },
-      select: { id: true },
+      select: { id: true, sport: true },
     });
-    return matches.map((m) => m.id);
+
+    const footballIds = matches
+      .filter((m) => m.sport === "football")
+      .map((m) => m.id);
+    const completeFootballIds = new Set<string>();
+
+    if (footballIds.length > 0) {
+      const starterCounts = await this.prisma.matchPlayerParticipation.groupBy({
+        by: ["matchId"],
+        where: {
+          matchId: { in: footballIds },
+          isStarting: true,
+        },
+        _count: { _all: true },
+      });
+
+      for (const row of starterCounts) {
+        if (row._count._all >= 18) completeFootballIds.add(row.matchId);
+      }
+    }
+
+    return matches
+      .filter((m) => m.sport !== "football" || completeFootballIds.has(m.id))
+      .map((m) => m.id);
   }
 
   async hasOdds(matchId: string): Promise<boolean> {

src/modules/feeder/feeder.service.ts

@@ -168,7 +168,7 @@ export class FeederService {
     // writing to live_matches. Historical scan should only fill matches table.
     endDate.setDate(endDate.getDate() - 2);
 
-    const stateKey = `historical_scan_state_${sports.join("_")}${targetLeagueIds.length > 0 ? "_filtered" : ""}_desc`;
+    const stateKey = `historical_full_data_v2_state_${sports.join("_")}${targetLeagueIds.length > 0 ? "_filtered" : ""}_desc`;
     let currentDate: Date | null = null;
 
     // Resume from saved state
@@ -310,9 +310,20 @@ export class FeederService {
       const { startTs: targetDateStartTs, endTs: targetDateEndTs } =
         this.getDayBoundsForTimeZone(dateString, this.DAILY_SYNC_TIME_ZONE);
 
+      // DEBUG: Log sample mstUtc values vs target bounds to diagnose filtering
+      if (allMatches.length > 0) {
+        const sample = allMatches.slice(0, 3);
+        this.logger.warn(
+          `[${sport}] [${dateString}] DEBUG: bounds=[${targetDateStartTs}, ${targetDateEndTs}] ` +
+          `(${new Date(targetDateStartTs * 1000).toISOString()} - ${new Date(targetDateEndTs * 1000).toISOString()}) | ` +
+          `sampleMstUtc=[${sample.map((m) => `${m.mstUtc} (asSec=${new Date(m.mstUtc * 1000).toISOString()}, asMs=${new Date(m.mstUtc).toISOString()})`).join(', ')}]`,
+        );
+      }
+
       const dateFilteredMatches = allMatches.filter((m) => {
-        const matchTs = m.mstUtc;
-        return matchTs >= targetDateStartTs && matchTs <= targetDateEndTs;
+        // mstUtc is in milliseconds from API, bounds are in seconds
+        const matchTsSec = Math.floor(m.mstUtc / 1000);
+        return matchTsSec >= targetDateStartTs && matchTsSec <= targetDateEndTs;
       });
 
       const apiReturnedCount = allMatches.length;
@@ -753,10 +764,7 @@ export class FeederService {
         }
 
         // Starting Formation & Substitutes (Always for lineups or all)
-        // V20 OPTIMIZATION: Disabled to speed up feeder and reduce 502 errors.
-        // We only use Team Stats for V20 model.
-        /*
-        if (scope === 'all' || scope === 'lineups') {
+        if (scope === "all" || scope === "lineups") {
           // Starting Formation
           try {
             const formationData =
@@ -780,7 +788,7 @@ export class FeederService {
               );
             }
           } catch (e: any) {
-            if (e.message?.includes('502')) hasCriticalError = true;
+            if (e.message?.includes("502")) hasCriticalError = true;
             this.logger.warn(`[${matchId}] Formation failed: ${e.message}`);
           }
 
@@ -807,11 +815,10 @@ export class FeederService {
               );
             }
           } catch (e: any) {
-            if (e.message?.includes('502')) hasCriticalError = true;
+            if (e.message?.includes("502")) hasCriticalError = true;
             this.logger.warn(`[${matchId}] Subs failed: ${e.message}`);
           }
         }
-        */
 
         // Game Stats & Officials
         if (scope === "all") {
@@ -935,6 +942,8 @@ export class FeederService {
       const missingParts: string[] = [];
       if (scope === "all" && completedMatch) {
         if (sport === "football" && !stats) missingParts.push("Stats");
+        if (sport === "football" && participationData.length < 18)
+          missingParts.push("Lineups");
         if (sport === "basketball" && !basketballTeamStats)
           missingParts.push("BoxScore");
         if (oddsArray.length === 0) missingParts.push("Odds");

src/modules/matches/matches.service.ts

@@ -586,7 +586,44 @@ export class MatchesService {
           date: new Date(Number(liveMatch.mstUtc)),
           // Fill missing relations with empty arrays
           teamStats: [],
-          playerParticipations: [],
+          playerParticipations: (() => {
+            const parsed: Array<{ teamId: string; isStarting: boolean; shirtNumber: string | number | null; position: string | null; player: { id: string; name: string } }> = [];
+            const canTrustFeedLineups = displayStatus === "LIVE" || displayStatus === "Finished";
+            if (!canTrustFeedLineups) {
+              return parsed;
+            }
+            if (liveMatch.lineups && typeof liveMatch.lineups === 'object') {
+              const lu = liveMatch.lineups as Record<string, any>;
+              const addPlayers = (teamLu: any, teamId: string | null) => {
+                if (!teamLu || !teamId) return;
+                if (teamLu.xi && Array.isArray(teamLu.xi)) {
+                  teamLu.xi.forEach((p: any) => {
+                    parsed.push({
+                      teamId,
+                      isStarting: true,
+                      shirtNumber: p.shirtNumber || p.number,
+                      position: p.position || p.pos,
+                      player: { id: p.personId || p.id || p.playerId || 'unknown', name: p.matchName || p.name || p.playerName || 'Bilinmiyor' }
+                    });
+                  });
+                }
+                if (teamLu.subs && Array.isArray(teamLu.subs)) {
+                  teamLu.subs.forEach((p: any) => {
+                    parsed.push({
+                      teamId,
+                      isStarting: false,
+                      shirtNumber: p.shirtNumber || p.number,
+                      position: p.position || p.pos,
+                      player: { id: p.personId || p.id || p.playerId || 'unknown', name: p.matchName || p.name || p.playerName || 'Bilinmiyor' }
+                    });
+                  });
+                }
+              };
+              addPlayers(lu.home, liveMatch.homeTeamId);
+              addPlayers(lu.away, liveMatch.awayTeamId);
+            }
+            return parsed;
+          })(),
           playerEvents: [],
           oddCategories: [], // Will handle odds parsing below
           officials: [],
@@ -597,6 +634,64 @@ export class MatchesService {
 
     if (!match) return null;
 
+    const detailDisplayStatus = getDisplayMatchStatus({
+      state: match.state,
+      status: match.status,
+      substate: match.substate,
+      scoreHome: match.scoreHome,
+      scoreAway: match.scoreAway,
+    });
+    const canTrustStoredLineups = this.canTrustStoredLineups(detailDisplayStatus);
+
+    if (Array.isArray(match.playerParticipations)) {
+      if (!canTrustStoredLineups) {
+        match.playerParticipations = [];
+      }
+
+      const hasHomeLineup = match.playerParticipations.some(
+        (p: any) => p.teamId === match.homeTeamId && p.isStarting,
+      );
+      const hasAwayLineup = match.playerParticipations.some(
+        (p: any) => p.teamId === match.awayTeamId && p.isStarting,
+      );
+
+      if (!hasHomeLineup || !hasAwayLineup) {
+        const sidelined =
+          match.sidelined && typeof match.sidelined === "object"
+            ? (match.sidelined as Record<string, any>)
+            : {};
+        const matchDateMs = Number(match.mstUtc || Date.now());
+        const probableLineups: any[] = [];
+
+        if (!hasHomeLineup && match.homeTeamId) {
+          probableLineups.push(
+            ...(await this.buildProbableLineupForTeam({
+              teamId: match.homeTeamId,
+              beforeDateMs: matchDateMs,
+              sidelinedTeamData: sidelined.homeTeam,
+            })),
+          );
+        }
+
+        if (!hasAwayLineup && match.awayTeamId) {
+          probableLineups.push(
+            ...(await this.buildProbableLineupForTeam({
+              teamId: match.awayTeamId,
+              beforeDateMs: matchDateMs,
+              sidelinedTeamData: sidelined.awayTeam,
+            })),
+          );
+        }
+
+        if (probableLineups.length > 0) {
+          match.playerParticipations = canTrustStoredLineups
+            ? [...match.playerParticipations, ...probableLineups]
+            : probableLineups;
+          match.lineupSource = "probable_xi";
+        }
+      }
+    }
+
     // Structure odds
     const odds: Record<
       string,
@@ -699,4 +794,211 @@ export class MatchesService {
 
     return team?.id || null;
   }
+
+  private async buildProbableLineupForTeam(params: {
+    teamId: string;
+    beforeDateMs: number;
+    sidelinedTeamData?: any;
+    matchLimit?: number;
+    lookbackDays?: number;
+    maxStalenessDays?: number;
+  }) {
+    const matchLimit = params.matchLimit ?? 5;
+    const lookbackDays = params.lookbackDays ?? 370;
+    const maxStalenessDays = params.maxStalenessDays ?? 120;
+    const beforeDateMs = params.beforeDateMs || Date.now();
+    const minDateMs = Math.max(
+      0,
+      beforeDateMs - lookbackDays * 24 * 60 * 60 * 1000,
+    );
+    const excluded = this.extractSidelinedPlayerIds(params.sidelinedTeamData);
+
+    const rows = await this.prisma.$queryRaw<any[]>`
+      SELECT
+        mpp.player_id AS "playerId",
+        p.name AS "playerName",
+        mpp.position AS "position",
+        mpp.shirt_number AS "shirtNumber",
+        m.id AS "matchId",
+        m.mst_utc AS "mstUtc"
+      FROM match_player_participation mpp
+      JOIN matches m ON m.id = mpp.match_id
+      JOIN players p ON p.id = mpp.player_id
+      WHERE mpp.team_id = ${params.teamId}
+        AND mpp.is_starting = true
+        AND NOT EXISTS (
+          SELECT 1
+          FROM match_player_participation later_mpp
+          JOIN matches later_m ON later_m.id = later_mpp.match_id
+          WHERE later_mpp.player_id = mpp.player_id
+            AND later_mpp.team_id <> ${params.teamId}
+            AND later_m.mst_utc > m.mst_utc
+            AND later_m.mst_utc < ${BigInt(beforeDateMs)}
+            AND (
+              later_m.status = 'FT'
+              OR later_m.state = 'postGame'
+              OR (later_m.score_home IS NOT NULL AND later_m.score_away IS NOT NULL)
+            )
+        )
+        AND m.id IN (
+          SELECT m2.id
+          FROM matches m2
+          JOIN match_player_participation recent_mpp
+            ON recent_mpp.match_id = m2.id
+           AND recent_mpp.team_id = ${params.teamId}
+           AND recent_mpp.is_starting = true
+          WHERE (m2.home_team_id = ${params.teamId} OR m2.away_team_id = ${params.teamId})
+            AND (
+              m2.status = 'FT'
+              OR m2.state = 'postGame'
+              OR (m2.score_home IS NOT NULL AND m2.score_away IS NOT NULL)
+            )
+            AND m2.mst_utc < ${BigInt(beforeDateMs)}
+            AND m2.mst_utc >= ${BigInt(minDateMs)}
+          GROUP BY m2.id
+          HAVING COUNT(recent_mpp.*) >= 9
+          ORDER BY MAX(m2.mst_utc) DESC
+          LIMIT ${matchLimit}
+        )
+      ORDER BY m.mst_utc DESC
+    `;
+
+    if (!rows.length) return [];
+
+    const latestMst = Math.max(
+      ...rows.map((row) => Number(row.mstUtc || 0)),
+    );
+    const ageDays =
+      latestMst > 0
+        ? (beforeDateMs - latestMst) / (24 * 60 * 60 * 1000)
+        : Number.POSITIVE_INFINITY;
+    const staleProjection = ageDays > maxStalenessDays;
+
+    const matchOrder = new Map<string, number>();
+    for (const row of rows) {
+      const matchId = String(row.matchId);
+      if (!matchOrder.has(matchId)) {
+        matchOrder.set(matchId, matchOrder.size);
+      }
+    }
+
+    const playerMap = new Map<
+      string,
+      {
+        playerId: string;
+        playerName: string;
+        position: string | null;
+        shirtNumber: number | null;
+        score: number;
+        starts: number;
+        lastSeenRank: number;
+      }
+    >();
+
+    for (const row of rows) {
+      const playerId = String(row.playerId);
+      if (excluded.has(playerId)) continue;
+
+      const rank = matchOrder.get(String(row.matchId)) ?? matchLimit;
+      const recencyWeight = Math.max(1, matchLimit - rank);
+      const score =
+        recencyWeight + (rank === 0 ? 3 : rank === 1 ? 1.5 : 0);
+      const existing = playerMap.get(playerId);
+
+      if (!existing) {
+        playerMap.set(playerId, {
+          playerId,
+          playerName: row.playerName || "Bilinmiyor",
+          position: row.position ?? null,
+          shirtNumber:
+            row.shirtNumber === null || row.shirtNumber === undefined
+              ? null
+              : Number(row.shirtNumber),
+          score,
+          starts: 1,
+          lastSeenRank: rank,
+        });
+      } else {
+        existing.score += score;
+        existing.starts += 1;
+        existing.lastSeenRank = Math.min(existing.lastSeenRank, rank);
+        existing.position = existing.position || row.position || null;
+        existing.shirtNumber =
+          existing.shirtNumber ??
+          (row.shirtNumber === null || row.shirtNumber === undefined
+            ? null
+            : Number(row.shirtNumber));
+      }
+    }
+
+    const ranked = [...playerMap.values()]
+      .sort((a, b) => {
+        if (b.score !== a.score) return b.score - a.score;
+        if (b.starts !== a.starts) return b.starts - a.starts;
+        return a.lastSeenRank - b.lastSeenRank;
+      })
+      .slice(0, 11);
+
+    const coverage = Math.min(1, ranked.length / 11);
+    const historyScore = Math.min(1, matchOrder.size / matchLimit);
+    const stableCore = ranked.filter((p) => p.starts >= 2).length / 11;
+    const stalenessFactor = Math.max(
+      0.35,
+      Math.min(1, maxStalenessDays / Math.max(ageDays, 1)),
+    );
+    const confidence = Math.max(
+      0,
+      Math.min(
+        staleProjection ? 0.58 : 0.88,
+        (coverage * 0.45 + historyScore * 0.25 + stableCore * 0.3) *
+          stalenessFactor,
+      ),
+    );
+
+    return ranked.map((p) => ({
+      teamId: params.teamId,
+      isStarting: true,
+      shirtNumber: p.shirtNumber,
+      position: p.position,
+      isProbable: true,
+      lineupSource: "probable_xi",
+      projectionConfidence: Number(confidence.toFixed(3)),
+      projectionAgeDays: Number(ageDays.toFixed(1)),
+      projectionStale: staleProjection,
+      projectionMatchLimit: matchLimit,
+      projectionLookbackDays: lookbackDays,
+      projectionMaxStalenessDays: maxStalenessDays,
+      player: {
+        id: p.playerId,
+        name: p.playerName,
+      },
+    }));
+  }
+
+  private extractSidelinedPlayerIds(teamData: any): Set<string> {
+    if (!teamData || typeof teamData !== "object") return new Set();
+    const players = Array.isArray(teamData.players) ? teamData.players : [];
+    return new Set(
+      players
+        .map((player: any) =>
+          String(
+            player?.playerId ??
+              player?.player_id ??
+              player?.id ??
+              player?.personId ??
+              "",
+          ),
+        )
+        .filter(Boolean),
+    );
+  }
+
+  private canTrustStoredLineups(displayStatus?: string): boolean {
+    const normalized = String(displayStatus || "").toLowerCase();
+    return (
+      normalized === "live" ||
+      normalized === "finished" ||
+      normalized === "ft"
+    );
+  }
 }

src/modules/predictions/predictions.controller.ts

@@ -96,11 +96,10 @@ export class PredictionsController {
   async getPrediction(
     @Param("matchId") matchId: string,
   ): Promise<MatchPredictionDto> {
-    // Check cache first - DISABLED per user request to always fetch from scratch
-    // const cached = await this.predictionsService.getCachedPrediction(matchId);
-    // if (cached) {
-    //   return cached;
-    // }
+    const cached = await this.predictionsService.getCachedPrediction(matchId);
+    if (cached) {
+      return cached;
+    }
 
     // Get from AI Engine
     const prediction = await this.predictionsService.getPredictionById(matchId);

src/modules/predictions/predictions.service.ts

@@ -223,11 +223,13 @@ export class PredictionsService implements OnModuleInit, OnModuleDestroy {
         `/v20plus/analyze/${matchId}`,
         { simulate: true, is_simulation: true, pre_match_only: true },
       );
-      await this.recordPredictionRun(matchId, response.data);
-      return this.enrichPredictionResponse(
-        response.data as MatchPredictionDto,
+      const prediction = this.enrichPredictionResponse(
+        response.data,
         matchContext,
       );
+      await this.recordPredictionRun(matchId, response.data);
+      await this.cachePrediction(matchId, prediction);
+      return prediction;
     } catch (e: unknown) {
       const requestError =
         e instanceof AiEngineRequestError
@@ -235,6 +237,20 @@ export class PredictionsService implements OnModuleInit, OnModuleDestroy {
           : new AiEngineRequestError("AI Engine request failed");
       const status = requestError.status;
       const detail = requestError.detail || requestError.message;
+
+      if (
+        status === HttpStatus.SERVICE_UNAVAILABLE &&
+        this.hasCooldown(detail)
+      ) {
+        const storedPrediction = await this.getStoredPrediction(matchId);
+        if (storedPrediction) {
+          this.logger.warn(
+            `AI Engine cooldown for ${matchId}; returning stored prediction`,
+          );
+          return this.enrichPredictionResponse(storedPrediction, matchContext);
+        }
+      }
+
       this.logger.error(
         `Direct AI Engine call failed for ${matchId}: status=${status}, detail=${JSON.stringify(detail)}`,
       );
@@ -674,6 +690,11 @@ export class PredictionsService implements OnModuleInit, OnModuleDestroy {
       odds: this.normalizeDisplayOdds(odds, impliedProb),
       implied_prob: impliedProb,
       ev_edge: evEdge,
+      playable: Boolean(record.playable) && interval.threshold_met,
+      stake_units:
+        Boolean(record.playable) && interval.threshold_met
+          ? this.asNumber(record.stake_units)
+          : 0,
       reasons: Array.isArray(record.reasons)
         ? record.reasons.map((reason) => this.translateReason(String(reason)))
         : [],
@@ -919,15 +940,39 @@ export class PredictionsService implements OnModuleInit, OnModuleDestroy {
       return 0;
     }
 
-    const normalizedPick = pickName.toUpperCase();
+    const normalizedPick = this.normalizePickKey(pickName);
     for (const [key, value] of Object.entries(probabilities)) {
-      if (key.toUpperCase() === normalizedPick) {
+      if (this.normalizePickKey(key) === normalizedPick) {
         return this.asNumber(value);
       }
     }
     return 0;
   }
 
+  private normalizePickKey(value: string): string {
+    const normalized = value.trim().toUpperCase();
+    const aliases: Record<string, string> = {
+      ÜST: "OVER",
+      UST: "OVER",
+      OVER: "OVER",
+      ALT: "UNDER",
+      UNDER: "UNDER",
+      "KG VAR": "YES",
+      VAR: "YES",
+      YES: "YES",
+      "KG YOK": "NO",
+      YOK: "NO",
+      NO: "NO",
+      TEK: "ODD",
+      ODD: "ODD",
+      ÇİFT: "EVEN",
+      CIFT: "EVEN",
+      EVEN: "EVEN",
+    };
+
+    return aliases[normalized] ?? normalized;
+  }
+
   private impliedProbabilityFromOdds(odds: number): number {
     if (odds <= 1) {
       return 0;
@@ -1132,6 +1177,30 @@ export class PredictionsService implements OnModuleInit, OnModuleDestroy {
     return prediction.predictionJson as unknown as MatchPredictionDto;
   }
 
+  private async getStoredPrediction(
+    matchId: string,
+  ): Promise<MatchPredictionDto | null> {
+    const prediction = await this.prisma.prediction.findUnique({
+      where: { matchId },
+    });
+
+    return prediction
+      ? (prediction.predictionJson as unknown as MatchPredictionDto)
+      : null;
+  }
+
+  private hasCooldown(detail: unknown): boolean {
+    if (typeof detail === "string") {
+      return detail.includes("cooldownRemainingMs");
+    }
+
+    if (detail && typeof detail === "object") {
+      return "cooldownRemainingMs" in detail;
+    }
+
+    return false;
+  }
+
   private async ensureSmartCouponDataReady(matchIds: string[]): Promise<void> {
     const uniqueMatchIds = [...new Set(matchIds.filter((id) => !!id))];
     if (uniqueMatchIds.length === 0) {

src/scripts/run-feeder-previous-day.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,39 @@
+/**
+ * Run Previous-Day Completed Match Sync
+ * Usage: npm run feeder:previous-day
+ */
+
+import { NestFactory } from "@nestjs/core";
+import { FeederService } from "../modules/feeder/feeder.service";
+import { Logger } from "@nestjs/common";
+
+async function bootstrap() {
+  process.env.FEEDER_MODE = "historical";
+
+  const logger = new Logger("FeederPreviousDayScript");
+
+  logger.log("🚀 Starting previous-day completed match sync...");
+
+  // Load AppModule after FEEDER_MODE is set so cron imports can be disabled.
+  // eslint-disable-next-line @typescript-eslint/no-require-imports
+  const { AppModule } = require("../app.module");
+  const app = await NestFactory.createApplicationContext(AppModule, {
+    logger: ["log", "error", "warn"],
+  });
+
+  try {
+    const feederService = app.get(FeederService);
+    await feederService.runPreviousDayCompletedMatchesScan();
+    logger.log("✅ Previous-day completed match sync completed successfully!");
+  } catch (error: any) {
+    logger.error(`❌ Feeder failed: ${error.message}`);
+    logger.error(error.stack);
+    process.exit(1);
+  } finally {
+    await app.close();
+  }
+
+  process.exit(0);
+}
+
+void bootstrap();

src/scripts/run-feeder.ts

@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
 /**
- * Run Previous-Day Completed Match Sync
+ * Run Full Historical Feeder
  * Usage: npm run feeder:historical
  */
 
@@ -12,7 +12,7 @@ async function bootstrap() {
 
   const logger = new Logger("FeederScript");
 
-  logger.log("🚀 Starting previous-day completed match sync...");
+  logger.log("🚀 Starting full historical feeder...");
 
   // Load AppModule after FEEDER_MODE is set so cron imports can be disabled.
   // eslint-disable-next-line @typescript-eslint/no-require-imports
@@ -23,8 +23,14 @@ async function bootstrap() {
 
   try {
     const feederService = app.get(FeederService);
-    await feederService.runPreviousDayCompletedMatchesScan();
-    logger.log("✅ Previous-day completed match sync completed successfully!");
+    const startDate = process.env.FEEDER_START_DATE || "2023-06-01";
+    const sports = (process.env.FEEDER_SPORTS || "football,basketball")
+      .split(",")
+      .map((sport) => sport.trim())
+      .filter(Boolean) as Array<"football" | "basketball">;
+
+    await feederService.runHistoricalScan(sports, startDate);
+    logger.log("✅ Full historical feeder completed successfully!");
   } catch (error: any) {
     logger.error(`❌ Feeder failed: ${error.message}`);
     logger.error(error.stack);

src/tasks/data-fetcher.task.ts

@@ -1,4 +1,4 @@
-import { Injectable, Logger } from "@nestjs/common";
+import { Injectable, Logger } from "@nestjs/common";
 import { Cron } from "@nestjs/schedule";
 import { HttpService } from "@nestjs/axios";
 import { PrismaService } from "../database/prisma.service";
@@ -182,7 +182,9 @@ export class DataFetcherTask {
     this.logger.log("syncLiveMatches START");
 
     const today = getDateStringInTimeZone(new Date(), this.timeZone);
+    const tomorrow = getShiftedDateStringInTimeZone(1, this.timeZone);
     await this.syncMatchList(today);
+    await this.syncMatchList(tomorrow);
     await this.updateLiveScores();
     await this.fetchOddsForMatches();
     await this.fillMissingLineups();
@@ -432,7 +434,10 @@ export class DataFetcherTask {
 
       for (const match of toUpdate) {
         try {
-          const formation = await this.scraper.fetchStartingFormation(match.id);
+          const [formation, substitutions] = await Promise.all([
+            this.scraper.fetchStartingFormation(match.id),
+            this.scraper.fetchSubstitutions(match.id),
+          ]);
           const sidelined = match.matchSlug
             ? await this.scraper.fetchSidelinedPlayers(
                 match.id,
@@ -440,11 +445,26 @@ export class DataFetcherTask {
               )
             : null;
 
+          // Normalize to same home.xi/away.xi format used by processMatchOdds
+          let normalizedLineups: Record<string, unknown> | null = null;
+          if (formation || substitutions) {
+            normalizedLineups = {
+              home: {
+                xi: formation?.stats?.home || [],
+                subs: substitutions?.stats?.home || [],
+              },
+              away: {
+                xi: formation?.stats?.away || [],
+                subs: substitutions?.stats?.away || [],
+              },
+            };
+          }
+
           await this.prisma.liveMatch.update({
             where: { id: match.id },
             data: {
-              lineups: formation
-                ? JSON.parse(JSON.stringify(formation))
+              lineups: normalizedLineups
+                ? JSON.parse(JSON.stringify(normalizedLineups))
                 : Prisma.JsonNull,
               sidelined: sidelined
                 ? JSON.parse(JSON.stringify(sidelined))
@@ -810,8 +830,8 @@ export class DataFetcherTask {
       const matchTime = Number(match.mstUtc);
       const diffHours = (matchTime - now) / (1000 * 60 * 60);
 
-      // Fetch if between -3 hours (started) and +4 hours (upcoming)
-      if (diffHours < 4 && diffHours > -3) {
+      // Fetch if between -3 hours (started) and +24 hours (upcoming)
+      if (diffHours < 24 && diffHours > -3) {
         // Lineups
         try {
           const [startingFormation, substitutions] = await Promise.all([
@@ -1269,3 +1289,4 @@ export class DataFetcherTask {
     return new Promise((resolve) => setTimeout(resolve, ms));
   }
 }
+