gg

feat(ai-engine): value sniper thresholds and logic relaxed
2026-05-10 22:52:05 +03:00 · 2026-05-10 10:37:45 +03:00 · 2026-05-06 17:44:45 +03:00 · 2026-05-05 22:35:04 +03:00 · 2026-05-05 21:27:06 +03:00 · 2026-05-05 20:59:59 +03:00
135 changed files with 13769 additions and 435818 deletions
@@ -25,11 +25,11 @@ jobs:
            --network iddaai_iddaai-network \
            -p 127.0.0.1:1810:3005 \
            -e NODE_ENV=production \
-            -e DATABASE_URL='postgresql://iddaai_user:IddaA1_S4crET!@iddaai-postgres:5432/iddaai_db?schema=public' \
-            -e REDIS_HOST='iddaai-redis' \
-            -e REDIS_PORT='6379' \
-            -e REDIS_PASSWORD='IddaA1_Redis_Pass!' \
-            -e AI_ENGINE_URL='http://iddaai-ai-engine:8000' \
-            -e JWT_SECRET='b7V8jM2wP1L5mQxs2RdfFkAsLpI2oG!w' \
+            -e DATABASE_URL='${{ secrets.DATABASE_URL }}' \
+            -e REDIS_HOST='${{ secrets.REDIS_HOST }}' \
+            -e REDIS_PORT='${{ secrets.REDIS_PORT }}' \
+            -e REDIS_PASSWORD='${{ secrets.REDIS_PASSWORD }}' \
+            -e AI_ENGINE_URL='${{ secrets.AI_ENGINE_URL }}' \
+            -e JWT_SECRET='${{ secrets.JWT_SECRET }}' \
            -e JWT_ACCESS_EXPIRATION='1d' \
            iddaai-be:latest /bin/sh -c "npx prisma migrate deploy && node dist/src/main.js"
@@ -42,7 +42,9 @@ uploads/
 public/uploads/

 # Large Datasets and ML Models
-ai-engine/models/
-models/
+ai-engine/models/*
+!ai-engine/models/*.py
+models/*
+!models/*.py
 colab_export/

@@ -47,7 +47,7 @@ COPY --from=builder /app/dist ./dist
 COPY --from=builder /app/src/i18n ./dist/i18n

 # Copy league filter config files (critical: without these, feeder stores ALL matches)
-COPY top_leagues.json basketball_top_leagues.json ./
+COPY qualified_leagues.json top_leagues.json basketball_top_leagues.json ./

 # Set environment
 ENV NODE_ENV=production
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@@ -1,7 +1,9 @@
 import os
+import json
 import yaml
 from typing import Dict, Any, Optional

+
 class EnsembleConfig:
    _instance: Optional['EnsembleConfig'] = None
    _config: Dict[str, Any] = {}
@@ -35,12 +37,79 @@ class EnsembleConfig:
        except (KeyError, TypeError):
            return default

+
 # Singleton accessor
 def get_config() -> EnsembleConfig:
    return EnsembleConfig()

+
+# ── Market Thresholds Loader ────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+_market_thresholds_cache: Optional[Dict[str, Any]] = None
+
+
+def load_market_thresholds() -> Dict[str, Any]:
+    """
+    Load market thresholds from JSON config file.
+    Returns the full config dict with 'markets' and 'defaults' keys.
+    Caches after first load for performance.
+    """
+    global _market_thresholds_cache
+    if _market_thresholds_cache is not None:
+        return _market_thresholds_cache
+
+    config_path = os.path.join(os.path.dirname(__file__), 'market_thresholds.json')
+    try:
+        with open(config_path, 'r', encoding='utf-8') as f:
+            data = json.load(f)
+        _market_thresholds_cache = data
+        print(f"✅ Market thresholds loaded: {len(data.get('markets', {}))} markets (v={data.get('_meta', {}).get('version', '?')})")
+        return data
+    except Exception as e:
+        print(f"❌ Failed to load market thresholds: {e} — using built-in defaults")
+        _market_thresholds_cache = {"markets": {}, "defaults": {
+            "calibration": 0.55,
+            "min_conf": 55.0,
+            "min_play_score": 68.0,
+            "min_edge": 0.02,
+            "odds_band_min_sample": 0.0,
+            "odds_band_min_edge": 0.0,
+        }}
+        return _market_thresholds_cache
+
+
+def build_threshold_dict(field: str) -> Dict[str, float]:
+    """
+    Build a flat {market: value} dict for a specific threshold field.
+
+    Usage:
+        calibration_map = build_threshold_dict("calibration")
+        # → {"MS": 0.62, "DC": 0.82, ...}
+    """
+    data = load_market_thresholds()
+    markets = data.get("markets", {})
+    result: Dict[str, float] = {}
+    for market, cfg in markets.items():
+        if field in cfg:
+            result[market] = float(cfg[field])
+    return result
+
+
+def get_threshold_default(field: str) -> float:
+    """Get the default fallback value for a threshold field."""
+    data = load_market_thresholds()
+    defaults = data.get("defaults", {})
+    return float(defaults.get(field, 0.0))
+
+
 if __name__ == "__main__":
    # Test
    cfg = get_config()
    print(f"Weights: {cfg.get('engine_weights')}")
    print(f"Team Weight: {cfg.get('engine_weights.team')}")
+    print()
+    print("--- Market Thresholds ---")
+    for field in ["calibration", "min_conf", "min_play_score", "min_edge"]:
+        d = build_threshold_dict(field)
+        print(f"{field}: {d}")
+    print(f"Default calibration: {get_threshold_default('calibration')}")
@@ -0,0 +1,115 @@
+{
+  "_meta": {
+    "version": "v34",
+    "description": "Market-specific thresholds for the betting engine pipeline — V34 odds-aware gate fix",
+    "rule": "max_reachable (100 × calibration) MUST be > min_conf + 8",
+    "updated_at": "2026-05-10",
+    "changelog": "V34: Reduced min_edge to realistic levels for odds-aware V25 model. Model output ≈ market-implied, so large EV edges are mathematically impossible."
+  },
+  "markets": {
+    "MS": {
+      "calibration": 0.62,
+      "min_conf": 20.0,
+      "min_play_score": 28.0,
+      "min_edge": 0.005,
+      "odds_band_min_sample": 8.0,
+      "odds_band_min_edge": 0.005
+    },
+    "DC": {
+      "calibration": 0.82,
+      "min_conf": 40.0,
+      "min_play_score": 50.0,
+      "min_edge": 0.003,
+      "odds_band_min_sample": 8.0,
+      "odds_band_min_edge": 0.005
+    },
+    "OU15": {
+      "calibration": 0.84,
+      "min_conf": 45.0,
+      "min_play_score": 50.0,
+      "min_edge": 0.003,
+      "odds_band_min_sample": 8.0,
+      "odds_band_min_edge": 0.005
+    },
+    "OU25": {
+      "calibration": 0.68,
+      "min_conf": 30.0,
+      "min_play_score": 40.0,
+      "min_edge": 0.005,
+      "odds_band_min_sample": 8.0,
+      "odds_band_min_edge": 0.005
+    },
+    "OU35": {
+      "calibration": 0.60,
+      "min_conf": 20.0,
+      "min_play_score": 30.0,
+      "min_edge": 0.008,
+      "odds_band_min_sample": 8.0,
+      "odds_band_min_edge": 0.008
+    },
+    "BTTS": {
+      "calibration": 0.65,
+      "min_conf": 30.0,
+      "min_play_score": 40.0,
+      "min_edge": 0.005,
+      "odds_band_min_sample": 8.0,
+      "odds_band_min_edge": 0.005
+    },
+    "HT": {
+      "calibration": 0.58,
+      "min_conf": 20.0,
+      "min_play_score": 28.0,
+      "min_edge": 0.01,
+      "odds_band_min_sample": 8.0,
+      "odds_band_min_edge": 0.008
+    },
+    "HT_OU05": {
+      "calibration": 0.68,
+      "min_conf": 35.0,
+      "min_play_score": 42.0,
+      "min_edge": 0.005,
+      "odds_band_min_sample": 8.0,
+      "odds_band_min_edge": 0.005
+    },
+    "HT_OU15": {
+      "calibration": 0.60,
+      "min_conf": 25.0,
+      "min_play_score": 32.0,
+      "min_edge": 0.008,
+      "odds_band_min_sample": 8.0,
+      "odds_band_min_edge": 0.008
+    },
+    "OE": {
+      "calibration": 0.62,
+      "min_conf": 35.0,
+      "min_play_score": 32.0,
+      "min_edge": 0.005
+    },
+    "CARDS": {
+      "calibration": 0.58,
+      "min_conf": 30.0,
+      "min_play_score": 35.0,
+      "min_edge": 0.008
+    },
+    "HCAP": {
+      "calibration": 0.56,
+      "min_conf": 25.0,
+      "min_play_score": 30.0,
+      "min_edge": 0.015
+    },
+    "HTFT": {
+      "calibration": 0.45,
+      "min_conf": 10.0,
+      "min_play_score": 18.0,
+      "min_edge": 0.02
+    }
+  },
+  "defaults": {
+    "calibration": 0.55,
+    "min_conf": 55.0,
+    "min_play_score": 60.0,
+    "min_edge": 0.008,
+    "odds_band_min_sample": 0.0,
+    "odds_band_min_edge": 0.0
+  }
+}
@@ -18,10 +18,15 @@ from features.sidelined_analyzer import get_sidelined_analyzer

@dataclass
 class PlayerPrediction:
-    """Player engine prediction output."""
-    home_squad_quality: float = 50.0  # 0-100
-    away_squad_quality: float = 50.0
-    squad_diff: float = 0.0  # -100 to +100
+    """Player engine prediction output.
+
+    IMPORTANT: squad_quality uses the SAME composite formula as
+    extract_training_data.py so that inference values match the
+    distribution the model was trained on (~3-36 range).
+    """
+    home_squad_quality: float = 12.0   # training-scale composite (~3-36)
+    away_squad_quality: float = 12.0
+    squad_diff: float = 0.0            # home - away (training scale)
    home_key_players: int = 0
    away_key_players: int = 0
    home_missing_impact: float = 0.0   # 0-1, how much weaker due to missing players
@@ -100,10 +105,12 @@ class PlayerPredictorEngine:
                "home_goals_last_5": home_analysis.total_goals_last_5,
                "home_assists_last_5": home_analysis.total_assists_last_5,
                "home_key_players": home_analysis.key_players_count,
+                "home_forwards": home_analysis.forward_count or 2,
                "away_starting_11": away_analysis.starting_count or 11,
                "away_goals_last_5": away_analysis.total_goals_last_5,
                "away_assists_last_5": away_analysis.total_assists_last_5,
                "away_key_players": away_analysis.key_players_count,
+                "away_forwards": away_analysis.forward_count or 2,
            }
        elif match_id:
            # Try to get from database
@@ -131,13 +138,31 @@ class PlayerPredictorEngine:
        away_goals = features.get("away_goals_last_5", 0)
        home_key = features.get("home_key_players", 0)
        away_key = features.get("away_key_players", 0)
+        home_assists = features.get("home_assists_last_5", 0)
+        away_assists = features.get("away_assists_last_5", 0)
+        home_starting = features.get("home_starting_11", 11)
+        away_starting = features.get("away_starting_11", 11)
+        home_fwd = features.get("home_forwards", 2)
+        away_fwd = features.get("away_forwards", 2)
        
-        # Calculate squad quality (0-100)
-        # Based on: goals scored, key players, assists
-        home_quality = min(100, 50 + (home_goals * 3) + (home_key * 5) + 
-                          features.get("home_assists_last_5", 0) * 2)
-        away_quality = min(100, 50 + (away_goals * 3) + (away_key * 5) + 
-                          features.get("away_assists_last_5", 0) * 2)
+        # Calculate squad quality — MUST match extract_training_data.py formula
+        # Formula: starting_count * 0.3 + goals * 2.0 + assists * 1.0
+        #          + key_players * 3.0 + fwd_count * 1.5
+        # Typical range: ~3 – 36 (model trained on this distribution)
+        home_quality = (
+            home_starting * 0.3 +
+            home_goals * 2.0 +
+            home_assists * 1.0 +
+            home_key * 3.0 +
+            home_fwd * 1.5
+        )
+        away_quality = (
+            away_starting * 0.3 +
+            away_goals * 2.0 +
+            away_assists * 1.0 +
+            away_key * 3.0 +
+            away_fwd * 1.5
+        )
        
        # Squad difference
        squad_diff = home_quality - away_quality
@@ -186,8 +211,10 @@ class PlayerPredictorEngine:
        Calculate 1X2 probability modifiers based on squad analysis.
        
        Returns modifiers to apply to base probabilities.
+        squad_diff is in training scale (~-33 to +33), normalize to -1..+1.
        """
-        diff = prediction.squad_diff / 100  # -1 to +1
+        diff = prediction.squad_diff / 33.0  # training-scale normalisation
+        diff = max(-1.0, min(1.0, diff))      # clamp
        
        return {
            "home_modifier": 1.0 + (diff * 0.3),  # Up to +/-30%
@@ -323,8 +323,8 @@ class OddsBandAnalyzer:
                        m.home_team_id,
                        m.away_team_id,
                        CASE
-                            WHEN m.home_team_id = %(team_id)s THEN os_sel.odd_value
-                            ELSE os_sel2.odd_value
+                            WHEN m.home_team_id = %(team_id)s THEN os_sel.odd_value::numeric
+                            ELSE os_sel2.odd_value::numeric
                        END AS team_odds
                    FROM matches m
                    JOIN odd_categories oc 
@@ -344,7 +344,7 @@ class OddsBandAnalyzer:
                      AND m.score_home IS NOT NULL
                      AND m.score_away IS NOT NULL
                      AND m.mst_utc < %(before_ts)s
-                      AND COALESCE(os_sel.odd_value, os_sel2.odd_value) 
+                      AND COALESCE(os_sel.odd_value::numeric, os_sel2.odd_value::numeric) 
                          BETWEEN %(band_low)s AND %(band_high)s
                    ORDER BY m.mst_utc DESC
                    LIMIT %(max_lookback)s
@@ -432,7 +432,7 @@ class OddsBandAnalyzer:
                      AND m.score_home IS NOT NULL
                      AND m.score_away IS NOT NULL
                      AND m.mst_utc < %(before_ts)s
-                      AND os_h.odd_value BETWEEN %(band_low)s AND %(band_high)s
+                      AND os_h.odd_value::numeric BETWEEN %(band_low)s AND %(band_high)s
                    ORDER BY m.mst_utc DESC
                    LIMIT %(max_lookback)s
                )
@@ -508,7 +508,7 @@ class OddsBandAnalyzer:
                f"İlk Yarı {line_str} Alt/Üst",
                f"Ilk Yari {line_str} Alt/Ust",
            ]
-            score_expr = "COALESCE(m.score_ht_home, 0) + COALESCE(m.score_ht_away, 0)"
+            score_expr = "COALESCE(m.ht_score_home, 0) + COALESCE(m.ht_score_away, 0)"
        else:
            cat_names = [
                f"{line_str} Alt/Üst",
@@ -535,7 +535,7 @@ class OddsBandAnalyzer:
                      AND m.status = 'FT'
                      AND m.score_home IS NOT NULL
                      AND m.mst_utc < %(before_ts)s
-                      AND os_over.odd_value BETWEEN %(band_low)s AND %(band_high)s
+                      AND os_over.odd_value::numeric BETWEEN %(band_low)s AND %(band_high)s
                    ORDER BY m.mst_utc DESC
                    LIMIT %(max_lookback)s
                )
@@ -620,7 +620,7 @@ class OddsBandAnalyzer:
                      AND m.status = 'FT'
                      AND m.score_home IS NOT NULL
                      AND m.mst_utc < %(before_ts)s
-                      AND os_yes.odd_value BETWEEN %(band_low)s AND %(band_high)s
+                      AND os_yes.odd_value::numeric BETWEEN %(band_low)s AND %(band_high)s
                    ORDER BY m.mst_utc DESC
                    LIMIT %(max_lookback)s
                )
@@ -696,7 +696,7 @@ class OddsBandAnalyzer:
                          AND m.sport = 'football' AND m.status = 'FT'
                          AND m.score_home IS NOT NULL
                          AND m.mst_utc < %(before_ts)s
-                          AND os_sel.odd_value BETWEEN %(bl)s AND %(bh)s
+                          AND os_sel.odd_value::numeric BETWEEN %(bl)s AND %(bh)s
                        ORDER BY m.mst_utc DESC LIMIT %(ml)s
                    )
                    SELECT COUNT(*) AS ss,
@@ -748,7 +748,7 @@ class OddsBandAnalyzer:
        try:
            cur.execute("""
                WITH ht_matches AS (
-                    SELECT m.score_ht_home, m.score_ht_away,
+                    SELECT m.ht_score_home, m.ht_score_away,
                           m.home_team_id, m.away_team_id
                    FROM matches m
                    JOIN odd_categories oc ON oc.match_id = m.id
@@ -761,18 +761,18 @@ class OddsBandAnalyzer:
                        AND os2.name = '2' AND m.away_team_id = %(tid)s
                    WHERE (m.home_team_id = %(tid)s OR m.away_team_id = %(tid)s)
                      AND m.sport = 'football' AND m.status = 'FT'
-                      AND m.score_ht_home IS NOT NULL
+                      AND m.ht_score_home IS NOT NULL
                      AND m.mst_utc < %(before_ts)s
-                      AND COALESCE(os1.odd_value, os2.odd_value)
+                      AND COALESCE(os1.odd_value::numeric, os2.odd_value::numeric)
                          BETWEEN %(bl)s AND %(bh)s
                    ORDER BY m.mst_utc DESC LIMIT %(ml)s
                )
                SELECT COUNT(*) AS ss,
                    COALESCE(AVG(CASE
-                        WHEN (home_team_id = %(tid)s AND score_ht_home > score_ht_away)
-                          OR (away_team_id = %(tid)s AND score_ht_away > score_ht_home)
+                        WHEN (home_team_id = %(tid)s AND ht_score_home > ht_score_away)
+                          OR (away_team_id = %(tid)s AND ht_score_away > ht_score_home)
                        THEN 1.0 ELSE 0.0 END), 0.33) AS win_rate,
-                    COALESCE(AVG(CASE WHEN score_ht_home = score_ht_away
+                    COALESCE(AVG(CASE WHEN ht_score_home = ht_score_away
                        THEN 1.0 ELSE 0.0 END), 0.40) AS draw_rate
                FROM ht_matches
            """, {
@@ -824,7 +824,7 @@ class OddsBandAnalyzer:
                      AND m.sport = 'football' AND m.status = 'FT'
                      AND m.score_home IS NOT NULL
                      AND m.mst_utc < %(before_ts)s
-                      AND os_odd.odd_value BETWEEN %(bl)s AND %(bh)s
+                      AND os_odd.odd_value::numeric BETWEEN %(bl)s AND %(bh)s
                    ORDER BY m.mst_utc DESC LIMIT %(ml)s
                )
                SELECT COUNT(*) AS ss,
@@ -1185,7 +1185,7 @@ class OddsBandAnalyzer:
                                    'IY/MS'
                                )
                            JOIN odd_selections os ON os.odd_category_db_id = oc.db_id
-                                AND os.odd_value BETWEEN %(bl)s AND %(bh)s
+                                AND os.odd_value::numeric BETWEEN %(bl)s AND %(bh)s
                            WHERE m.sport = 'football'
                              AND m.status = 'FT'
                              AND m.score_home IS NOT NULL
@@ -14,10 +14,13 @@ from fastapi.middleware.cors import CORSMiddleware
 from fastapi.responses import JSONResponse
 from pydantic import BaseModel

+try:
    from models.basketball_v25 import get_basketball_v25_predictor
+    HAS_BASKETBALL = True
+except ImportError:
+    HAS_BASKETBALL = False
 from services.single_match_orchestrator import get_single_match_orchestrator
 from services.v26_shadow_engine import get_v26_shadow_engine
-from data.database import dispose_engine

 load_dotenv()

@@ -49,9 +52,6 @@ async def lifespan(_: FastAPI):

    yield

-    # Cleanup async DB connections on shutdown
-    await dispose_engine()
-

 app = FastAPI(
    title="Suggest-Bet AI Engine",
@@ -123,9 +123,15 @@ def health_check() -> dict[str, Any]:
    try:
        orchestrator = get_single_match_orchestrator()
        shadow_engine = get_v26_shadow_engine()
+        
+        if HAS_BASKETBALL:
            basketball_predictor = get_basketball_v25_predictor()
            basketball_readiness = basketball_predictor.readiness_summary()
-        ready = bool(basketball_readiness["fully_loaded"])
+            ready = bool(basketball_readiness.get("fully_loaded", True))
+        else:
+            basketball_readiness = {"fully_loaded": False, "error": "Basketball module not found"}
+            ready = True
+            
        return {
            "status": "healthy" if ready else "degraded",
            "engine": "v28.main",
@@ -0,0 +1,413 @@
+"""
+Calibration Module for XGBoost Models
+=====================================
+Calibrates raw probabilities from XGBoost models using Isotonic Regression.
+Ensures that a predicted probability of 70% actually corresponds to a 70% win rate.
+
+Usage:
+    from ai_engine.models.calibration import Calibrator
+    calibrator = Calibrator()
+    calibrated_prob = calibrator.calibrate("ms", raw_prob)
+    
+    # Training new calibration models:
+    calibrator.train_calibration(valid_df, market="ms")
+"""
+
+import os
+import pickle
+import json
+import numpy as np
+import pandas as pd
+from datetime import datetime
+from typing import Dict, List, Optional, Tuple, Any
+from sklearn.isotonic import IsotonicRegression
+from sklearn.calibration import calibration_curve
+from sklearn.metrics import brier_score_loss
+
+AI_ENGINE_DIR = os.path.dirname(os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__)))
+CALIBRATION_DIR = os.path.join(AI_ENGINE_DIR, "models", "calibration")
+
+os.makedirs(CALIBRATION_DIR, exist_ok=True)
+
+# Supported markets for calibration
+SUPPORTED_MARKETS = [
+    "ms",        # Match Result (1X2) - multi-class, calibrated per class
+    "ms_home",   # Standard Home win probability
+    "ms_home_heavy_fav", # Context: home odds <= 1.40
+    "ms_home_fav",       # Context: 1.40 < home odds <= 1.80
+    "ms_home_balanced",  # Context: 1.80 < home odds <= 2.50
+    "ms_home_underdog",  # Context: home odds > 2.50
+    "ms_draw",   # Draw probability  
+    "ms_away",   # Away win probability
+    "ou15",      # Over/Under 1.5
+    "ou25",      # Over/Under 2.5
+    "ou35",      # Over/Under 3.5
+    "btts",      # Both Teams to Score
+    "ht_ft",     # Half-Time/Full-Time
+    "dc",        # Double Chance
+    "ht",        # Half-Time Result
+]
+
+
+class CalibrationMetrics:
+    """Stores calibration quality metrics for a market."""
+    
+    def __init__(self):
+        self.brier_score: float = 0.0
+        self.calibration_error: float = 0.0
+        self.sample_count: int = 0
+        self.last_trained: str = ""
+        self.mean_predicted: float = 0.0
+        self.mean_actual: float = 0.0
+        
+    def to_dict(self) -> Dict:
+        return {
+            "brier_score": round(self.brier_score, 4),
+            "calibration_error": round(self.calibration_error, 4),
+            "sample_count": self.sample_count,
+            "last_trained": self.last_trained,
+            "mean_predicted": round(self.mean_predicted, 4),
+            "mean_actual": round(self.mean_actual, 4),
+        }
+
+
+class Calibrator:
+    """
+    Probability calibration using Isotonic Regression.
+    
+    Isotonic Regression is a non-parametric method that fits a piecewise
+    constant function that is monotonically increasing. It's ideal for
+    calibrating probabilities because:
+    
+    1. It preserves ranking (if P(A) > P(B) before, P(A) > P(B) after)
+    2. It doesn't assume a specific distribution shape
+    3. It can correct systematic over/under-confidence
+    
+    Example:
+        # Before calibration: model predicts 70% but actual win rate is 60%
+        # After calibration: model predicts 70% → calibrated to 60%
+    """
+    
+    def __init__(self):
+        self.calibrators: Dict[str, IsotonicRegression] = {}
+        self.metrics: Dict[str, CalibrationMetrics] = {}
+        self.heuristic_fallback: Dict[str, float] = {
+            "ms": 0.90,
+            "ms_home": 0.90,
+            "ms_home_heavy_fav": 0.95,
+            "ms_home_fav": 0.90,
+            "ms_home_balanced": 0.85,
+            "ms_home_underdog": 0.80,
+            "ms_draw": 0.90,
+            "ms_away": 0.90,
+            "ou15": 0.90,
+            "ou25": 0.90,
+            "ou35": 0.90,
+            "btts": 0.90,
+            "ht_ft": 0.85,
+            "dc": 0.93,
+            "ht": 0.85,
+        }
+        self._load_calibrators()
+        
+    def _load_calibrators(self):
+        """Load trained calibrators for each market from disk."""
+        for market in SUPPORTED_MARKETS:
+            model_path = os.path.join(CALIBRATION_DIR, f"{market}_calibrator.pkl")
+            metrics_path = os.path.join(CALIBRATION_DIR, f"{market}_metrics.json")
+            
+            if os.path.exists(model_path):
+                try:
+                    with open(model_path, "rb") as f:
+                        self.calibrators[market] = pickle.load(f)
+                    print(f"[Calibrator] Loaded calibration model for {market}")
+                except Exception as e:
+                    print(f"[Calibrator] Warning: Failed to load {market}: {e}")
+                    
+            if os.path.exists(metrics_path):
+                try:
+                    with open(metrics_path, "r") as f:
+                        data = json.load(f)
+                        metrics = CalibrationMetrics()
+                        metrics.brier_score = data.get("brier_score", 0.0)
+                        metrics.calibration_error = data.get("calibration_error", 0.0)
+                        metrics.sample_count = data.get("sample_count", 0)
+                        metrics.last_trained = data.get("last_trained", "")
+                        metrics.mean_predicted = data.get("mean_predicted", 0.0)
+                        metrics.mean_actual = data.get("mean_actual", 0.0)
+                        self.metrics[market] = metrics
+                except Exception as e:
+                    print(f"[Calibrator] Warning: Failed to load metrics for {market}: {e}")
+
+    def calibrate(self, market_type: str, raw_prob: float, odds_val: Optional[float] = None) -> float:
+        """
+        Calibrate a raw probability using Isotonic Regression.
+        
+        Args:
+            market_type (str): 'ms_home', 'ou25', 'btts', 'ht_ft', etc.
+            raw_prob (float): The raw probability from XGBoost (0.0 - 1.0)
+            odds_val (float, optional): The pre-match odds, used for context-aware bucket mapping
+            
+        Returns:
+            float: Calibrated probability (0.0 - 1.0)
+        """
+        # Normalize market type
+        market_key = market_type.lower().replace("-", "_")
+        
+        # Route to bucket if ms_home and odds provided
+        if market_key == "ms_home" and odds_val is not None and odds_val > 1.0:
+            if odds_val <= 1.40:
+                bucket_key = "ms_home_heavy_fav"
+            elif odds_val <= 1.80:
+                bucket_key = "ms_home_fav"
+            elif odds_val <= 2.50:
+                bucket_key = "ms_home_balanced"
+            else:
+                bucket_key = "ms_home_underdog"
+                
+            if bucket_key in self.calibrators:
+                market_key = bucket_key
+        
+        # If we have a trained Isotonic Regression model, use it
+        if market_key in self.calibrators:
+            try:
+                calibrated = self.calibrators[market_key].predict([raw_prob])[0]
+                # Ensure output is valid probability
+                return float(np.clip(calibrated, 0.01, 0.99))
+            except Exception as e:
+                print(f"[Calibrator] Warning: Isotonic failed for {market_key}: {e}")
+                # Fall through to heuristic
+        
+        # Fallback to heuristic calibration
+        return self._heuristic_calibrate(market_key, raw_prob)
+    
+    def _heuristic_calibrate(self, market_type: str, raw_prob: float) -> float:
+        """
+        Heuristic calibration fallback when no trained model exists.
+        
+        This applies a conservative shrinkage towards the mean:
+        - Binary markets (OU, BTTS): shrink towards 0.5
+        - Multi-class (MS): shrink towards 0.33
+        - HT/FT: stronger shrinkage due to higher variance
+        """
+        # Get shrinkage factor for this market
+        shrinkage = self.heuristic_fallback.get(market_type, 0.90)
+        
+        if market_type in ["ms", "ms_home", "ms_home_heavy_fav", "ms_home_fav", "ms_home_balanced", "ms_home_underdog", "ms_draw", "ms_away"]:
+            # Pull towards 0.33 (uniform for 3-class)
+            return (raw_prob * shrinkage) + (0.33 * (1.0 - shrinkage))
+            
+        elif market_type in ["ou15", "ou25", "ou35", "btts"]:
+            # Pull towards 0.5 (uniform for binary)
+            return (raw_prob * shrinkage) + (0.5 * (1.0 - shrinkage))
+            
+        elif market_type in ["ht_ft", "ht"]:
+            # Stronger shrinkage for high-variance markets
+            return raw_prob * shrinkage
+            
+        elif market_type == "dc":
+            # Double chance is more reliable
+            return (raw_prob * shrinkage) + (0.66 * (1.0 - shrinkage))
+            
+        return raw_prob
+
+    def train_calibration(
+        self,
+        df: pd.DataFrame,
+        market: str,
+        prob_col: str,
+        actual_col: str,
+        min_samples: int = 100,
+        save: bool = True,
+    ) -> CalibrationMetrics:
+        """
+        Train an Isotonic Regression calibration model for a specific market.
+        
+        Args:
+            df: DataFrame with predictions and actual outcomes
+            market: Market identifier (e.g., 'ms_home', 'ou25', 'btts')
+            prob_col: Column name for raw probabilities
+            actual_col: Column name for actual outcomes (0 or 1)
+            min_samples: Minimum samples required to train
+            save: Whether to save the model to disk
+            
+        Returns:
+            CalibrationMetrics with quality metrics
+        """
+        # Filter valid data
+        valid_df = df[[prob_col, actual_col]].dropna()
+        n_samples = len(valid_df)
+        
+        if n_samples < min_samples:
+            print(f"[Calibrator] Warning: Only {n_samples} samples for {market}, "
+                  f"need at least {min_samples}")
+            metrics = CalibrationMetrics()
+            metrics.sample_count = n_samples
+            return metrics
+        
+        # Extract arrays
+        raw_probs = valid_df[prob_col].values
+        actuals = valid_df[actual_col].values
+        
+        # Train Isotonic Regression
+        iso = IsotonicRegression(out_of_bounds="clip", increasing=True)
+        iso.fit(raw_probs, actuals)
+        
+        # Calculate calibrated probabilities
+        calibrated_probs = iso.predict(raw_probs)
+        
+        # Calculate metrics
+        metrics = CalibrationMetrics()
+        metrics.sample_count = n_samples
+        metrics.last_trained = datetime.utcnow().isoformat()
+        metrics.brier_score = brier_score_loss(actuals, calibrated_probs)
+        metrics.mean_predicted = np.mean(raw_probs)
+        metrics.mean_actual = np.mean(actuals)
+        
+        # Calculate Expected Calibration Error (ECE)
+        metrics.calibration_error = self._calculate_ece(
+            calibrated_probs, actuals, n_bins=10
+        )
+        
+        # Store in memory
+        self.calibrators[market] = iso
+        self.metrics[market] = metrics
+        
+        # Save to disk
+        if save:
+            self._save_calibration(market, iso, metrics)
+        
+        print(f"[Calibrator] Trained {market}: "
+              f"Brier={metrics.brier_score:.4f}, "
+              f"ECE={metrics.calibration_error:.4f}, "
+              f"n={n_samples}")
+        
+        return metrics
+    
+    def train_all_markets(
+        self,
+        df: pd.DataFrame,
+        market_config: Dict[str, Tuple[str, str]],
+        min_samples: int = 100,
+    ) -> Dict[str, CalibrationMetrics]:
+        """
+        Train calibration models for multiple markets at once.
+        
+        Args:
+            df: DataFrame with all predictions and outcomes
+            market_config: Dict mapping market -> (prob_col, actual_col)
+                          e.g., {'ou25': ('ou25_over_prob', 'ou25_over_actual')}
+            min_samples: Minimum samples per market
+            
+        Returns:
+            Dict of market -> CalibrationMetrics
+        """
+        results = {}
+        
+        for market, (prob_col, actual_col) in market_config.items():
+            print(f"\n[Calibrator] Training {market}...")
+            try:
+                metrics = self.train_calibration(
+                    df=df,
+                    market=market,
+                    prob_col=prob_col,
+                    actual_col=actual_col,
+                    min_samples=min_samples,
+                    save=True,
+                )
+                results[market] = metrics
+            except Exception as e:
+                print(f"[Calibrator] Failed to train {market}: {e}")
+                
+        return results
+    
+    def _calculate_ece(
+        self, 
+        probs: np.ndarray, 
+        actuals: np.ndarray, 
+        n_bins: int = 10
+    ) -> float:
+        """
+        Calculate Expected Calibration Error (ECE).
+        
+        ECE = sum(|bin_accuracy - bin_confidence| * bin_weight)
+        
+        Lower is better. Perfect calibration = 0.
+        """
+        bin_boundaries = np.linspace(0, 1, n_bins + 1)
+        ece = 0.0
+        
+        for i in range(n_bins):
+            in_bin = (probs >= bin_boundaries[i]) & (probs < bin_boundaries[i + 1])
+            prop_in_bin = np.mean(in_bin)
+            
+            if prop_in_bin > 0:
+                accuracy_in_bin = np.mean(actuals[in_bin])
+                avg_confidence_in_bin = np.mean(probs[in_bin])
+                ece += np.abs(accuracy_in_bin - avg_confidence_in_bin) * prop_in_bin
+                
+        return ece
+    
+    def _save_calibration(
+        self, 
+        market: str, 
+        calibrator: IsotonicRegression,
+        metrics: CalibrationMetrics
+    ):
+        """Save calibration model and metrics to disk."""
+        # Save model
+        model_path = os.path.join(CALIBRATION_DIR, f"{market}_calibrator.pkl")
+        with open(model_path, "wb") as f:
+            pickle.dump(calibrator, f)
+            
+        # Save metrics
+        metrics_path = os.path.join(CALIBRATION_DIR, f"{market}_metrics.json")
+        with open(metrics_path, "w") as f:
+            json.dump(metrics.to_dict(), f, indent=2)
+            
+        print(f"[Calibrator] Saved {market} to {CALIBRATION_DIR}")
+    
+    def get_calibration_report(self) -> Dict[str, Any]:
+        """Generate a summary report of all calibration models."""
+        report = {
+            "trained_markets": list(self.calibrators.keys()),
+            "metrics": {},
+            "heuristic_only": [],
+        }
+        
+        for market in SUPPORTED_MARKETS:
+            if market in self.metrics:
+                report["metrics"][market] = self.metrics[market].to_dict()
+            elif market not in self.calibrators:
+                report["heuristic_only"].append(market)
+                
+        return report
+    
+    def get_calibrated_probabilities(
+        self, 
+        market: str, 
+        raw_probs: np.ndarray
+    ) -> np.ndarray:
+        """
+        Batch calibration for array of probabilities.
+        
+        Args:
+            market: Market type
+            raw_probs: Array of raw probabilities
+            
+        Returns:
+            Array of calibrated probabilities
+        """
+        return np.array([self.calibrate(market, p) for p in raw_probs])
+
+
+# Singleton instance
+_calibrator_instance: Optional[Calibrator] = None
+
+
+def get_calibrator() -> Calibrator:
+    """Get or create the global Calibrator instance."""
+    global _calibrator_instance
+    if _calibrator_instance is None:
+        _calibrator_instance = Calibrator()
+    return _calibrator_instance
@@ -0,0 +1,676 @@
+"""
+V25 Ensemble Predictor - NO TARGET LEAKAGE
+===========================================
+Multi-model ensemble for match prediction using XGBoost and LightGBM.
+
+Features:
+- 73 engineered features (NO target leakage)
+- Market-specific models (MS, OU25, BTTS)
+- Weighted ensemble predictions
+- Value bet detection
+"""
+
+import os
+import json
+import numpy as np
+import pandas as pd
+from typing import Dict, List, Optional, Any
+from dataclasses import dataclass, field
+
+import xgboost as xgb
+import lightgbm as lgb
+
+# CatBoost is optional
+try:
+    from catboost import CatBoostClassifier
+    CATBOOST_AVAILABLE = True
+except ImportError:
+    CatBoostClassifier = None
+    CATBOOST_AVAILABLE = False
+
+# Paths
+MODELS_DIR = os.path.join(os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__)), 'v25')
+
+
+@dataclass
+class MarketPrediction:
+    """Prediction for a single betting market."""
+    market_type: str
+    pick: str
+    probability: float
+    confidence: float
+    odds: float = 0.0
+    is_value_bet: bool = False
+    edge: float = 0.0
+
+    def to_dict(self) -> dict:
+        return {
+            'market_type': self.market_type,
+            'pick': self.pick,
+            'probability': round(self.probability * 100, 1),
+            'confidence': round(self.confidence, 1),
+            'odds': self.odds,
+            'is_value_bet': self.is_value_bet,
+            'edge': round(self.edge * 100, 1),
+        }
+
+
+@dataclass
+class ValueBet:
+    """Detected value bet opportunity."""
+    market_type: str
+    pick: str
+    probability: float
+    odds: float
+    edge: float
+    confidence: float
+
+    def to_dict(self) -> dict:
+        return {
+            'market_type': self.market_type,
+            'pick': self.pick,
+            'probability': round(self.probability * 100, 1),
+            'odds': self.odds,
+            'edge': round(self.edge * 100, 1),
+            'confidence': round(self.confidence, 1),
+        }
+
+
+@dataclass
+class MatchPrediction:
+    """Complete match prediction with all markets."""
+    match_id: str
+    home_team: str
+    away_team: str
+    
+    # MS predictions
+    home_prob: float = 0.0
+    draw_prob: float = 0.0
+    away_prob: float = 0.0
+    ms_pick: str = ''
+    ms_confidence: float = 0.0
+    
+    # OU25 predictions
+    over_prob: float = 0.0
+    under_prob: float = 0.0
+    ou25_pick: str = ''
+    ou25_confidence: float = 0.0
+    
+    # BTTS predictions
+    btts_yes_prob: float = 0.0
+    btts_no_prob: float = 0.0
+    btts_pick: str = ''
+    btts_confidence: float = 0.0
+    
+    # Value bets
+    value_bets: List[ValueBet] = field(default_factory=list)
+    
+    def to_dict(self) -> dict:
+        return {
+            'match_id': self.match_id,
+            'home_team': self.home_team,
+            'away_team': self.away_team,
+            'ms': {
+                'home_prob': round(self.home_prob * 100, 1),
+                'draw_prob': round(self.draw_prob * 100, 1),
+                'away_prob': round(self.away_prob * 100, 1),
+                'pick': self.ms_pick,
+                'confidence': round(self.ms_confidence, 1),
+            },
+            'ou25': {
+                'over_prob': round(self.over_prob * 100, 1),
+                'under_prob': round(self.under_prob * 100, 1),
+                'pick': self.ou25_pick,
+                'confidence': round(self.ou25_confidence, 1),
+            },
+            'btts': {
+                'yes_prob': round(self.btts_yes_prob * 100, 1),
+                'no_prob': round(self.btts_no_prob * 100, 1),
+                'pick': self.btts_pick,
+                'confidence': round(self.btts_confidence, 1),
+            },
+            'value_bets': [vb.to_dict() for vb in self.value_bets],
+        }
+
+
+class V25Predictor:
+    """
+    V25 Ensemble Predictor - NO TARGET LEAKAGE
+    
+    Uses market-specific XGBoost and LightGBM models.
+    Each market (MS, OU25, BTTS) has its own trained models.
+    """
+    
+    # Feature columns — loaded dynamically from feature_cols.json to stay
+    # in sync with the trained models.  The hardcoded list below is only a
+    # fallback in case the JSON file is missing.
+    _FALLBACK_FEATURE_COLS = [
+        # ELO Features (8)
+        'home_overall_elo', 'away_overall_elo', 'elo_diff',
+        'home_home_elo', 'away_away_elo',
+        'home_form_elo', 'away_form_elo', 'form_elo_diff',
+        
+        # Form Features (12)
+        'home_goals_avg', 'home_conceded_avg',
+        'away_goals_avg', 'away_conceded_avg',
+        'home_clean_sheet_rate', 'away_clean_sheet_rate',
+        'home_scoring_rate', 'away_scoring_rate',
+        'home_winning_streak', 'away_winning_streak',
+        'home_unbeaten_streak', 'away_unbeaten_streak',
+        
+        # H2H Features (6)
+        'h2h_total_matches', 'h2h_home_win_rate', 'h2h_draw_rate',
+        'h2h_avg_goals', 'h2h_btts_rate', 'h2h_over25_rate',
+        
+        # Team Stats Features (8)
+        'home_avg_possession', 'away_avg_possession',
+        'home_avg_shots_on_target', 'away_avg_shots_on_target',
+        'home_shot_conversion', 'away_shot_conversion',
+        'home_avg_corners', 'away_avg_corners',
+        
+        # Odds Features (24)
+        'odds_ms_h', 'odds_ms_d', 'odds_ms_a',
+        'implied_home', 'implied_draw', 'implied_away',
+        'odds_ht_ms_h', 'odds_ht_ms_d', 'odds_ht_ms_a',
+        'odds_ou05_o', 'odds_ou05_u',
+        'odds_ou15_o', 'odds_ou15_u',
+        'odds_ou25_o', 'odds_ou25_u',
+        'odds_ou35_o', 'odds_ou35_u',
+        'odds_ht_ou05_o', 'odds_ht_ou05_u',
+        'odds_ht_ou15_o', 'odds_ht_ou15_u',
+        'odds_btts_y', 'odds_btts_n',
+        
+        # Odds Presence Flags (20)
+        'odds_ms_h_present', 'odds_ms_d_present', 'odds_ms_a_present',
+        'odds_ht_ms_h_present', 'odds_ht_ms_d_present', 'odds_ht_ms_a_present',
+        'odds_ou05_o_present', 'odds_ou05_u_present',
+        'odds_ou15_o_present', 'odds_ou15_u_present',
+        'odds_ou25_o_present', 'odds_ou25_u_present',
+        'odds_ou35_o_present', 'odds_ou35_u_present',
+        'odds_ht_ou05_o_present', 'odds_ht_ou05_u_present',
+        'odds_ht_ou15_o_present', 'odds_ht_ou15_u_present',
+        'odds_btts_y_present', 'odds_btts_n_present',
+        
+        # League Features (4)
+        'home_xga', 'away_xga',
+        'league_avg_goals', 'league_zero_goal_rate',
+        
+        # Upset Engine (4)
+        'upset_atmosphere', 'upset_motivation', 'upset_fatigue', 'upset_potential',
+        
+        # Referee Engine (5)
+        'referee_home_bias', 'referee_avg_goals', 'referee_cards_total',
+        'referee_avg_yellow', 'referee_experience',
+        
+        # Momentum Engine (3)
+        'home_momentum_score', 'away_momentum_score', 'momentum_diff',
+
+        # Squad Features (9)
+        'home_squad_quality', 'away_squad_quality', 'squad_diff',
+        'home_key_players', 'away_key_players',
+        'home_missing_impact', 'away_missing_impact',
+        'home_goals_form', 'away_goals_form',
+    ]
+
+    @staticmethod
+    def _load_feature_cols() -> list:
+        """Load feature columns from feature_cols.json, falling back to hardcoded list."""
+        feature_json = os.path.join(MODELS_DIR, 'feature_cols.json')
+        try:
+            if os.path.exists(feature_json):
+                with open(feature_json, 'r', encoding='utf-8') as f:
+                    cols = json.load(f)
+                if isinstance(cols, list) and len(cols) > 0:
+                    print(f"[V25] Loaded {len(cols)} feature columns from feature_cols.json")
+                    return cols
+        except Exception as e:
+            print(f"[V25] Warning: could not load feature_cols.json: {e}")
+        print(f"[V25] Using fallback feature columns ({len(V25Predictor._FALLBACK_FEATURE_COLS)} features)")
+        return V25Predictor._FALLBACK_FEATURE_COLS
+
+    FEATURE_COLS = _load_feature_cols.__func__()
+    
+    # Model weights for ensemble
+    DEFAULT_WEIGHTS = {
+        'xgb': 0.50,
+        'lgb': 0.50,
+    }
+    
+    def __init__(self, models_dir: str = None):
+        """
+        Initialize V25 Predictor.
+        
+        Args:
+            models_dir: Directory containing model files. Defaults to v25/ directory.
+        """
+        self.models_dir = models_dir or MODELS_DIR
+        self.models = {}  # market -> {'xgb': model, 'lgb': model}
+        self._loaded = False
+    
+    # All trained market models available in V25
+    ALL_MARKETS = [
+        'ms', 'ou25', 'btts',           # Core markets
+        'ou15', 'ou35',                  # Additional OU lines
+        'ht_result', 'ht_ou05', 'ht_ou15',  # HT markets
+        'htft',                          # HT/FT combo
+        'cards_ou45',                    # Cards market
+        'handicap_ms',                   # Handicap
+        'odd_even',                      # Odd/Even goals
+    ]
+    
+    # Multi-class markets (output > 2 classes)
+    MULTICLASS_MARKETS = {'ms', 'ht_result', 'htft', 'handicap_ms'}
+    
+    def load_models(self) -> bool:
+        """Load all market-specific models from disk."""
+        try:
+            loaded_count = 0
+            
+            for market in self.ALL_MARKETS:
+                self.models[market] = {}
+                
+                # Load XGBoost (read content in Python to avoid non-ASCII path issues)
+                xgb_path = os.path.join(self.models_dir, f'xgb_v25_{market}.json')
+                if os.path.exists(xgb_path) and os.path.getsize(xgb_path) > 0:
+                    with open(xgb_path, 'r', encoding='utf-8') as f:
+                        xgb_content = f.read()
+                    booster = xgb.Booster()
+                    booster.load_model(bytearray(xgb_content, 'utf-8'))
+                    self.models[market]['xgb'] = booster
+                    loaded_count += 1
+                
+                # Load LightGBM (read content in Python to avoid non-ASCII path issues)
+                lgb_path = os.path.join(self.models_dir, f'lgb_v25_{market}.txt')
+                if os.path.exists(lgb_path) and os.path.getsize(lgb_path) > 0:
+                    with open(lgb_path, 'r', encoding='utf-8') as f:
+                        model_str = f.read()
+                    self.models[market]['lgb'] = lgb.Booster(model_str=model_str)
+                    loaded_count += 1
+                
+                # Remove empty entries
+                if not self.models[market]:
+                    del self.models[market]
+            
+            print(f"[V25] Loaded {loaded_count} model files across {len(self.models)} markets: {list(self.models.keys())}")
+            self._loaded = loaded_count > 0
+            return self._loaded
+            
+        except Exception as e:
+            print(f"[ERROR] Error loading models: {e}")
+            import traceback
+            traceback.print_exc()
+            return False
+    
+    def _ensure_loaded(self):
+        """Ensure models are loaded before prediction."""
+        if not self._loaded:
+            if not self.load_models():
+                raise RuntimeError("Failed to load V25 models")
+    
+    def _prepare_features(self, features: Dict[str, float]) -> pd.DataFrame:
+        """Prepare feature vector for prediction."""
+        X = pd.DataFrame([{col: features.get(col, 0.0) for col in self.FEATURE_COLS}])
+        return X
+    
+    def predict_ms(self, features: Dict[str, float]) -> tuple:
+        """
+        Predict match result (1X2).
+        
+        Returns:
+            (home_prob, draw_prob, away_prob)
+        """
+        self._ensure_loaded()
+        
+        X = self._prepare_features(features)
+        probs = []
+        
+        # XGBoost
+        if 'xgb' in self.models.get('ms', {}):
+            dmat = xgb.DMatrix(X)
+            xgb_proba = self.models['ms']['xgb'].predict(dmat)
+            if len(xgb_proba.shape) == 1:
+                xgb_proba = np.array([xgb_proba])
+            probs.append(xgb_proba[0] * self.DEFAULT_WEIGHTS['xgb'])
+        
+        # LightGBM
+        if 'lgb' in self.models.get('ms', {}):
+            lgb_proba = self.models['ms']['lgb'].predict(X)
+            if len(lgb_proba.shape) == 2:
+                probs.append(lgb_proba[0] * self.DEFAULT_WEIGHTS['lgb'])
+        
+        if not probs:
+            return 0.33, 0.33, 0.33
+        
+        ensemble_proba = np.sum(probs, axis=0)
+        ensemble_proba = ensemble_proba / ensemble_proba.sum()
+        
+        return float(ensemble_proba[0]), float(ensemble_proba[1]), float(ensemble_proba[2])
+    
+    def predict_ou25(self, features: Dict[str, float]) -> tuple:
+        """
+        Predict Over/Under 2.5 goals.
+        
+        Returns:
+            (over_prob, under_prob)
+        """
+        self._ensure_loaded()
+        
+        X = self._prepare_features(features)
+        probs = []
+        
+        # XGBoost
+        if 'xgb' in self.models.get('ou25', {}):
+            dmat = xgb.DMatrix(X)
+            xgb_proba = self.models['ou25']['xgb'].predict(dmat)
+            if isinstance(xgb_proba, np.ndarray) and len(xgb_proba.shape) == 1:
+                probs.append(xgb_proba[0])
+        
+        # LightGBM
+        if 'lgb' in self.models.get('ou25', {}):
+            lgb_proba = self.models['ou25']['lgb'].predict(X)
+            if isinstance(lgb_proba, np.ndarray):
+                probs.append(lgb_proba[0])
+        
+        if not probs:
+            return 0.5, 0.5
+        
+        # Average probability
+        avg_prob = np.mean(probs)
+        
+        return float(avg_prob), float(1 - avg_prob)
+    
+    def predict_btts(self, features: Dict[str, float]) -> tuple:
+        """
+        Predict Both Teams To Score.
+        
+        Returns:
+            (yes_prob, no_prob)
+        """
+        self._ensure_loaded()
+        
+        X = self._prepare_features(features)
+        probs = []
+        
+        # XGBoost
+        if 'xgb' in self.models.get('btts', {}):
+            dmat = xgb.DMatrix(X)
+            xgb_proba = self.models['btts']['xgb'].predict(dmat)
+            if isinstance(xgb_proba, np.ndarray) and len(xgb_proba.shape) == 1:
+                probs.append(xgb_proba[0])
+        
+        # LightGBM
+        if 'lgb' in self.models.get('btts', {}):
+            lgb_proba = self.models['btts']['lgb'].predict(X)
+            if isinstance(lgb_proba, np.ndarray):
+                probs.append(lgb_proba[0])
+        
+        if not probs:
+            return 0.5, 0.5
+        
+        # Average probability
+        avg_prob = np.mean(probs)
+        
+        return float(avg_prob), float(1 - avg_prob)
+    
+    def predict_market(self, market: str, features: Dict[str, float]) -> np.ndarray:
+        """
+        Generic prediction for any loaded market.
+        
+        Args:
+            market: Market key (e.g. 'ht_result', 'htft', 'cards_ou45')
+            features: Feature dictionary.
+            
+        Returns:
+            numpy array of probabilities.
+            For binary markets: [positive_prob]
+            For multi-class markets: [class0_prob, class1_prob, ...]
+        """
+        self._ensure_loaded()
+        
+        if market not in self.models:
+            return None
+        
+        X = self._prepare_features(features)
+        probs = []
+        weights = []
+        is_multiclass = market in self.MULTICLASS_MARKETS
+        
+        # XGBoost
+        if 'xgb' in self.models[market]:
+            dmat = xgb.DMatrix(X)
+            xgb_proba = self.models[market]['xgb'].predict(dmat)
+            if isinstance(xgb_proba, np.ndarray):
+                if is_multiclass and len(xgb_proba.shape) == 2:
+                    probs.append(xgb_proba[0])
+                elif is_multiclass and len(xgb_proba.shape) == 1:
+                    probs.append(xgb_proba)
+                else:
+                    probs.append(np.array([xgb_proba[0]]))
+            weights.append(self.DEFAULT_WEIGHTS['xgb'])
+        
+        # LightGBM
+        if 'lgb' in self.models[market]:
+            lgb_proba = self.models[market]['lgb'].predict(X)
+            if isinstance(lgb_proba, np.ndarray):
+                if is_multiclass and len(lgb_proba.shape) == 2:
+                    probs.append(lgb_proba[0])
+                elif is_multiclass and len(lgb_proba.shape) == 1:
+                    probs.append(lgb_proba)
+                else:
+                    probs.append(np.array([lgb_proba[0]]))
+            weights.append(self.DEFAULT_WEIGHTS['lgb'])
+        
+        if not probs:
+            return None
+        
+        # Weighted average
+        if len(probs) == 1:
+            return probs[0]
+        
+        total_w = sum(weights[:len(probs)])
+        result = np.zeros_like(probs[0])
+        for p, w in zip(probs, weights):
+            result += p * (w / total_w)
+        
+        # Normalize multi-class
+        if is_multiclass and result.sum() > 0:
+            result = result / result.sum()
+        
+        return result
+    
+    def has_market(self, market: str) -> bool:
+        """Check if a specific market model is loaded."""
+        return market in self.models
+    
+    def predict_match(
+        self,
+        match_id: str,
+        home_team: str,
+        away_team: str,
+        features: Dict[str, float],
+        odds: Optional[Dict[str, float]] = None,
+    ) -> MatchPrediction:
+        """
+        Predict all markets for a match.
+        
+        Args:
+            match_id: Match identifier.
+            home_team: Home team name.
+            away_team: Away team name.
+            features: Feature dictionary.
+            odds: Optional odds dictionary for value bet detection.
+            
+        Returns:
+            MatchPrediction object.
+        """
+        # Get predictions for each market
+        home_prob, draw_prob, away_prob = self.predict_ms(features)
+        over_prob, under_prob = self.predict_ou25(features)
+        btts_yes_prob, btts_no_prob = self.predict_btts(features)
+        
+        # Determine picks
+        ms_probs = {'1': home_prob, 'X': draw_prob, '2': away_prob}
+        ms_pick = max(ms_probs, key=ms_probs.get)
+        ms_confidence = ms_probs[ms_pick] * 100
+        
+        ou25_probs = {'Over': over_prob, 'Under': under_prob}
+        ou25_pick = max(ou25_probs, key=ou25_probs.get)
+        ou25_confidence = ou25_probs[ou25_pick] * 100
+        
+        btts_probs = {'Yes': btts_yes_prob, 'No': btts_no_prob}
+        btts_pick = max(btts_probs, key=btts_probs.get)
+        btts_confidence = btts_probs[btts_pick] * 100
+        
+        # Create prediction
+        prediction = MatchPrediction(
+            match_id=match_id,
+            home_team=home_team,
+            away_team=away_team,
+            home_prob=home_prob,
+            draw_prob=draw_prob,
+            away_prob=away_prob,
+            ms_pick=ms_pick,
+            ms_confidence=ms_confidence,
+            over_prob=over_prob,
+            under_prob=under_prob,
+            ou25_pick=ou25_pick,
+            ou25_confidence=ou25_confidence,
+            btts_yes_prob=btts_yes_prob,
+            btts_no_prob=btts_no_prob,
+            btts_pick=btts_pick,
+            btts_confidence=btts_confidence,
+        )
+        
+        # Detect value bets
+        if odds:
+            prediction.value_bets = self._detect_value_bets(
+                prediction, odds, home_prob, draw_prob, away_prob,
+                over_prob, under_prob, btts_yes_prob, btts_no_prob
+            )
+        
+        return prediction
+    
+    def _detect_value_bets(
+        self,
+        prediction: MatchPrediction,
+        odds: Dict[str, float],
+        home_prob: float,
+        draw_prob: float,
+        away_prob: float,
+        over_prob: float,
+        under_prob: float,
+        btts_yes_prob: float,
+        btts_no_prob: float,
+    ) -> List[ValueBet]:
+        """Detect value bets based on model vs market odds."""
+        value_bets = []
+        min_edge = 0.05  # 5% minimum edge
+        
+        # MS value bets
+        if 'ms_h' in odds and odds['ms_h'] > 0:
+            implied = 1 / odds['ms_h']
+            edge = home_prob - implied
+            if edge > min_edge:
+                value_bets.append(ValueBet(
+                    market_type='MS',
+                    pick='1',
+                    probability=home_prob,
+                    odds=odds['ms_h'],
+                    edge=edge,
+                    confidence=home_prob * 100,
+                ))
+        
+        if 'ms_d' in odds and odds['ms_d'] > 0:
+            implied = 1 / odds['ms_d']
+            edge = draw_prob - implied
+            if edge > min_edge:
+                value_bets.append(ValueBet(
+                    market_type='MS',
+                    pick='X',
+                    probability=draw_prob,
+                    odds=odds['ms_d'],
+                    edge=edge,
+                    confidence=draw_prob * 100,
+                ))
+        
+        if 'ms_a' in odds and odds['ms_a'] > 0:
+            implied = 1 / odds['ms_a']
+            edge = away_prob - implied
+            if edge > min_edge:
+                value_bets.append(ValueBet(
+                    market_type='MS',
+                    pick='2',
+                    probability=away_prob,
+                    odds=odds['ms_a'],
+                    edge=edge,
+                    confidence=away_prob * 100,
+                ))
+        
+        # OU25 value bets
+        if 'ou25_o' in odds and odds['ou25_o'] > 0:
+            implied = 1 / odds['ou25_o']
+            edge = over_prob - implied
+            if edge > min_edge:
+                value_bets.append(ValueBet(
+                    market_type='OU25',
+                    pick='Over',
+                    probability=over_prob,
+                    odds=odds['ou25_o'],
+                    edge=edge,
+                    confidence=over_prob * 100,
+                ))
+        
+        if 'ou25_u' in odds and odds['ou25_u'] > 0:
+            implied = 1 / odds['ou25_u']
+            edge = under_prob - implied
+            if edge > min_edge:
+                value_bets.append(ValueBet(
+                    market_type='OU25',
+                    pick='Under',
+                    probability=under_prob,
+                    odds=odds['ou25_u'],
+                    edge=edge,
+                    confidence=under_prob * 100,
+                ))
+        
+        # BTTS value bets
+        if 'btts_y' in odds and odds['btts_y'] > 0:
+            implied = 1 / odds['btts_y']
+            edge = btts_yes_prob - implied
+            if edge > min_edge:
+                value_bets.append(ValueBet(
+                    market_type='BTTS',
+                    pick='Yes',
+                    probability=btts_yes_prob,
+                    odds=odds['btts_y'],
+                    edge=edge,
+                    confidence=btts_yes_prob * 100,
+                ))
+        
+        if 'btts_n' in odds and odds['btts_n'] > 0:
+            implied = 1 / odds['btts_n']
+            edge = btts_no_prob - implied
+            if edge > min_edge:
+                value_bets.append(ValueBet(
+                    market_type='BTTS',
+                    pick='No',
+                    probability=btts_no_prob,
+                    odds=odds['btts_n'],
+                    edge=edge,
+                    confidence=btts_no_prob * 100,
+                ))
+        
+        return value_bets
+
+
+# Singleton instance
+_v25_predictor: Optional[V25Predictor] = None
+
+
+def get_v25_predictor() -> V25Predictor:
+    """Get or create V25 predictor instance."""
+    global _v25_predictor
+    if _v25_predictor is None:
+        _v25_predictor = V25Predictor()
+        _v25_predictor.load_models()
+    return _v25_predictor
@@ -0,0 +1,343 @@
+"""
+V27 Pro Predictor — Odds-Free Fundamentals + Value Edge Detection
+
+This module loads V27 ensemble models (XGBoost, LightGBM, CatBoost)
+and produces market-independent probability estimates.
+
+The key insight: V27 is trained WITHOUT odds features, so it produces
+"true" probabilities unbiased by market pricing. The divergence between
+V25 (odds-aware) and V27 (odds-free) predictions signals market mispricing.
+"""
+
+import json
+import logging
+import os
+import pickle
+from pathlib import Path
+from typing import Dict, List, Optional, Tuple
+
+import numpy as np
+
+logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
+
+V27_DIR = Path(__file__).parent / "v27"
+
+
+class V27Predictor:
+    """
+    Loads V27 ensemble models and provides predictions using the
+    82-feature odds-free vector.
+    """
+
+    MARKETS = ['ms', 'ou25', 'btts']
+
+    def __init__(self):
+        self.models: Dict[str, Dict[str, object]] = {}
+        self.feature_cols: List[str] = []
+        self._loaded = False
+
+    def load_models(self) -> bool:
+        """Load all V27 ensemble models and feature column spec."""
+        if self._loaded:
+            return True
+
+        # Feature columns
+        cols_path = V27_DIR / "v27_feature_cols.json"
+        if not cols_path.exists():
+            logger.error("[V27] Feature columns file not found: %s", cols_path)
+            return False
+
+        try:
+            with open(cols_path, "r", encoding="utf-8") as f:
+                self.feature_cols = json.load(f)
+            logger.info("[V27] Loaded %d feature columns", len(self.feature_cols))
+        except Exception as e:
+            logger.error("[V27] Failed to load feature columns: %s", e)
+            return False
+
+        # Load models per market
+        model_types = {"xgb": "xgb", "lgb": "lgb"}
+
+        for market in self.MARKETS:
+            self.models[market] = {}
+            for short, label in model_types.items():
+                # Try market-specific file first: v27_ms_xgb.pkl
+                path = V27_DIR / f"v27_{market}_{short}.pkl"
+                if not path.exists():
+                    # Fallback to generic: v27_xgboost.pkl (for MS only)
+                    generic_names = {"xgb": "v27_xgboost.pkl", "lgb": "v27_lightgbm.pkl", "cb": "v27_catboost.pkl"}
+                    path = V27_DIR / generic_names.get(short, "")
+                    if not path.exists():
+                        logger.warning("[V27] Model file not found for %s/%s", market, short)
+                        continue
+
+                try:
+                    with open(path, "rb") as f:
+                        model = pickle.load(f)
+                    self.models[market][label] = model
+                    logger.info("[V27] ✓ Loaded %s/%s from %s", market, label, path.name)
+                except Exception as e:
+                    logger.error("[V27] ✗ Failed to load %s/%s: %s", market, label, e)
+
+        loaded_count = sum(len(v) for v in self.models.values())
+        if loaded_count == 0:
+            logger.error("[V27] No models loaded!")
+            return False
+
+        self._loaded = True
+        logger.info("[V27] Total models loaded: %d across %d markets", loaded_count, len(self.models))
+        return True
+
+    def _build_feature_array(self, features: Dict[str, float]) -> np.ndarray:
+        """
+        Build ordered feature array from the full feature dict.
+        V27 uses only its 82 features (odds-free subset).
+        """
+        row = []
+        for col in self.feature_cols:
+            row.append(float(features.get(col, 0.0)))
+        return np.array([row])
+
+    def _predict_with_model(self, model, X: np.ndarray, label: str, expected_classes: int) -> Optional[np.ndarray]:
+        """
+        Predict probabilities from a model, handling both sklearn wrappers
+        (predict_proba) and raw Booster objects (predict).
+
+        For raw XGBoost Boosters, DMatrix is created WITH feature_names
+        to match the training schema.
+        """
+        import xgboost as xgb
+        import lightgbm as lgbm
+        import pandas as pd
+
+        # 1. Try sklearn-style predict_proba first
+        if hasattr(model, 'predict_proba'):
+            try:
+                proba = model.predict_proba(X)[0]
+                if len(proba) == expected_classes:
+                    return proba
+                logger.warning("[V27] %s predict_proba returned %d classes, expected %d", label, len(proba), expected_classes)
+            except Exception:
+                pass  # Fall through to raw predict
+
+        # 2. Raw xgboost.Booster — MUST pass feature_names
+        if isinstance(model, xgb.Booster):
+            try:
+                feature_names = self.feature_cols if self.feature_cols else None
+                dmat = xgb.DMatrix(X, feature_names=feature_names)
+                raw = model.predict(dmat)
+                if isinstance(raw, np.ndarray):
+                    if raw.ndim == 2 and raw.shape[1] == expected_classes:
+                        return raw[0]
+                    elif raw.ndim == 1 and expected_classes == 2:
+                        p = float(raw[0])
+                        return np.array([1.0 - p, p])
+                    elif raw.ndim == 1 and len(raw) == expected_classes:
+                        return raw
+            except Exception as e:
+                logger.warning("[V27] %s xgb.Booster predict failed: %s", label, e)
+                return None
+
+        # 3. Raw lightgbm.Booster — pass as DataFrame with column names
+        if isinstance(model, lgbm.Booster):
+            try:
+                if self.feature_cols:
+                    X_named = pd.DataFrame(X, columns=self.feature_cols)
+                    raw = model.predict(X_named)
+                else:
+                    raw = model.predict(X)
+                if isinstance(raw, np.ndarray):
+                    if raw.ndim == 2 and raw.shape[1] == expected_classes:
+                        return raw[0]
+                    elif raw.ndim == 1 and expected_classes == 2:
+                        p = float(raw[0])
+                        return np.array([1.0 - p, p])
+                    elif raw.ndim == 1 and len(raw) == expected_classes:
+                        return raw
+            except Exception as e:
+                logger.warning("[V27] %s lgb.Booster predict failed: %s", label, e)
+                return None
+
+        # 4. Generic fallback (CatBoost, etc.)
+        try:
+            if hasattr(model, 'predict'):
+                raw = model.predict(X)
+                if isinstance(raw, np.ndarray):
+                    if raw.ndim == 2 and raw.shape[1] == expected_classes:
+                        return raw[0]
+                    elif raw.ndim == 1 and expected_classes == 2:
+                        p = float(raw[0])
+                        return np.array([1.0 - p, p])
+                    elif raw.ndim == 1 and len(raw) == expected_classes:
+                        return raw
+        except Exception as e:
+            logger.warning("[V27] %s generic predict failed: %s", label, e)
+
+        return None
+
+    def predict_ms(self, features: Dict[str, float]) -> Optional[Dict[str, float]]:
+        """
+        Predict Match Score probabilities (Home/Draw/Away).
+        Returns dict with keys: home, draw, away.
+        """
+        if not self._loaded or "ms" not in self.models or not self.models["ms"]:
+            return None
+
+        X = self._build_feature_array(features)
+        probs_list = []
+
+        for label, model in self.models["ms"].items():
+            proba = self._predict_with_model(model, X, f"MS/{label}", expected_classes=3)
+            if proba is not None and len(proba) == 3:
+                probs_list.append(proba)
+
+        if not probs_list:
+            return None
+
+        # Ensemble average
+        avg = np.mean(probs_list, axis=0)
+        return {
+            "home": float(avg[0]),
+            "draw": float(avg[1]),
+            "away": float(avg[2]),
+        }
+
+    def predict_ou25(self, features: Dict[str, float]) -> Optional[Dict[str, float]]:
+        """
+        Predict Over/Under 2.5 probabilities.
+        Returns dict with keys: under, over.
+        """
+        if not self._loaded or "ou25" not in self.models or not self.models["ou25"]:
+            return None
+
+        X = self._build_feature_array(features)
+        probs_list = []
+
+        for label, model in self.models["ou25"].items():
+            proba = self._predict_with_model(model, X, f"OU25/{label}", expected_classes=2)
+            if proba is not None and len(proba) == 2:
+                probs_list.append(proba)
+
+        if not probs_list:
+            return None
+
+        avg = np.mean(probs_list, axis=0)
+        return {
+            "under": float(avg[0]),
+            "over": float(avg[1]),
+        }
+
+    def predict_btts(self, features: Dict[str, float]) -> Optional[Dict[str, float]]:
+        """
+        Predict Both Teams To Score probabilities.
+        Returns dict with keys: no, yes.
+        """
+        if not self._loaded or 'btts' not in self.models or not self.models['btts']:
+            return None
+
+        X = self._build_feature_array(features)
+        probs_list = []
+
+        for label, model in self.models['btts'].items():
+            proba = self._predict_with_model(model, X, f'BTTS/{label}', expected_classes=2)
+            if proba is not None and len(proba) == 2:
+                probs_list.append(proba)
+
+        if not probs_list:
+            return None
+
+        avg = np.mean(probs_list, axis=0)
+        return {
+            'no': float(avg[0]),
+            'yes': float(avg[1]),
+        }
+
+    def predict_dc(self, features: Dict[str, float]) -> Optional[Dict[str, float]]:
+        """
+        Predict Double Chance probabilities.
+
+        DC is algebraically derived from MS predictions:
+          1X = home + draw
+          X2 = draw + away
+          12 = home + away
+
+        This gives an odds-free DC estimate for divergence detection.
+        """
+        ms_probs = self.predict_ms(features)
+        if not ms_probs:
+            return None
+
+        home = ms_probs['home']
+        draw = ms_probs['draw']
+        away = ms_probs['away']
+
+        return {
+            '1x': round(home + draw, 4),
+            'x2': round(draw + away, 4),
+            '12': round(home + away, 4),
+        }
+
+    def predict_all(self, features: Dict[str, float]) -> Dict[str, Optional[Dict[str, float]]]:
+        """Run predictions for all supported markets."""
+        return {
+            'ms': self.predict_ms(features),
+            'ou25': self.predict_ou25(features),
+            'btts': self.predict_btts(features),
+            'dc': self.predict_dc(features),
+        }
+
+
+def compute_divergence(
+    v25_probs: Dict[str, float],
+    v27_probs: Dict[str, float],
+) -> Dict[str, float]:
+    """
+    Compute the divergence signal between V25 (odds-aware) and V27 (odds-free).
+
+    Positive divergence = V27 thinks it's MORE likely than the market → VALUE BET
+    Negative divergence = V27 thinks it's LESS likely than the market → PASS
+
+    Returns per-outcome divergence values.
+    """
+    divergence = {}
+    for key in v27_probs:
+        v25_val = v25_probs.get(key, 0.33)
+        v27_val = v27_probs.get(key, 0.33)
+        divergence[key] = round(v27_val - v25_val, 4)
+    return divergence
+
+
+def compute_value_edge(
+    v25_probs: Dict[str, float],
+    v27_probs: Dict[str, float],
+    odds: Dict[str, float],
+) -> Dict[str, Dict]:
+    """
+    Detect value bets by combining V25/V27 divergence with odds.
+
+    A value bet exists when:
+    1. V27 (odds-free) probability > implied odds probability  (model says it's underpriced)
+    2. V27 and V25 divergence is positive  (V27 sees more signal than the market)
+
+    Returns per-outcome: { probability, implied_prob, edge, is_value }
+    """
+    results = {}
+    for key in v27_probs:
+        v27_p = v27_probs[key]
+        v25_p = v25_probs.get(key, 0.33)
+        odds_val = odds.get(key, 0.0)
+
+        implied_p = (1.0 / odds_val) if odds_val > 1.01 else 0.0
+        divergence = v27_p - v25_p
+        edge = v27_p - implied_p if implied_p > 0 else 0.0
+
+        results[key] = {
+            "v27_prob": round(v27_p, 4),
+            "v25_prob": round(v25_p, 4),
+            "implied_prob": round(implied_p, 4),
+            "divergence": round(divergence, 4),
+            "edge": round(edge, 4),
+            "is_value": edge > 0.05 and divergence > 0.02,  # 5% edge + 2% divergence
+        }
+
+    return results
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@@ -1,35 +0,0 @@
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-b6uzz042mizu0dqpci538z4lw,2025-09-06,Süper Kupa,V. Sarsfield vs C. Cordoba,0-0,2-0,v26_aggressive,HTFT,1/1,3.26,True,16.0,LOST,True,-1.0,actual=X/1,v26.aggressive_pick,1/1,,,,,,,,,,,,
-ytsc38rm4j22govgwo3as6j8,2025-09-06,DK Elemeler,Avusturya vs G. Kıbrıs Rum Kesimi,0-0,1-0,v25_aggressive,HTFT,X/1,4.01,True,11.4,WON,True,3.01,actual=X/1,v25.aggressive_pick,X/1,,,,,,,,,,,,
-cfar57gsu6hy770n7e58u8duc,2025-09-06,Eerste Divisie,Cambuur vs Willem II,0-1,2-2,v25_aggressive,HTFT,2/1,20.7,True,15.6,LOST,True,-1.0,actual=2/X,v25.aggressive_pick,2/1,,,,,,,,,,,,
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-99r0d7ggi1169dhklo4eroopg,2025-09-06,2. Lig,Bromley vs Gillingham,2-0,2-2,v25_aggressive,HTFT,2/1,30.5,True,25.6,LOST,True,-1.0,actual=1/X,v25.aggressive_pick,2/1,,,,,,,,,,,,
-99r0d7ggi1169dhklo4eroopg,2025-09-06,2. Lig,Bromley vs Gillingham,2-0,2-2,v26_surprise,HTFT,1/2,34.5,False,4.9,LOST,False,0.0,actual=1/X,v26.surprise_pick,1/2,0.0679,1.02,1.92,73.5,0.642,,0.04,0.0,0.0,62.7,"favorite_gap_large,favorite_price_supported,reversal_prob_warm,quality_supports_reversal,favorite_odds_band_reversal_window,favorite_streak_break_window",
-99r0d7ggi1169dhklo4eroopg,2025-09-06,2. Lig,Bromley vs Gillingham,2-0,2-2,v26_aggressive,HTFT,1/1,3.16,True,16.1,LOST,True,-1.0,actual=1/X,v26.aggressive_pick,1/1,,,,,,,,,,,,
-790qnaweqoyffb5ndxnb4hlas,2025-09-06,Ulusal Lig,Aldershot vs Brackley,1-0,2-2,v25_aggressive,HTFT,X/2,6.07,True,9.0,LOST,True,-1.0,actual=1/X,v25.aggressive_pick,X/2,,,,,,,,,,,,
-790qnaweqoyffb5ndxnb4hlas,2025-09-06,Ulusal Lig,Aldershot vs Brackley,1-0,2-2,v26_aggressive,HTFT,2/2,3.8,True,37.1,LOST,True,-1.0,actual=1/X,v26.aggressive_pick,2/2,,,,,,,,,,,,
-8808y1x2hmz52k3mr598orqc4,2025-09-06,DK Elemeler,Ermenistan vs Portekiz,0-3,0-5,v25_aggressive,HTFT,X/2,4.03,True,11.6,LOST,True,-1.0,actual=2/2,v25.aggressive_pick,X/2,,,,,,,,,,,,
-7gfnwoxqz5o2clin40a85uqdw,2025-09-06,1. Lig,Port Vale vs Leyton Orient,1-2,2-3,v25_aggressive,HTFT,X/1,4.84,True,12.3,LOST,True,-1.0,actual=2/2,v25.aggressive_pick,X/1,,,,,,,,,,,,
-7gfnwoxqz5o2clin40a85uqdw,2025-09-06,1. Lig,Port Vale vs Leyton Orient,1-2,2-3,v26_surprise,HTFT,1/2,33.0,False,5.4,LOST,False,0.0,actual=2/2,v26.surprise_pick,1/2,0.0749,0.62,1.97,52.1,0.642,,0.044,0.0,0.0,57.0,"favorite_gap_large,favorite_price_supported,reversal_prob_warm,draw_swing_support,quality_supports_reversal,favorite_odds_band_reversal_window",
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-7fld91ykj1kfuoc8wn4r2frbo,2025-09-06,1. Lig,Lincoln City vs Wigan Ath,2-1,2-2,v25_aggressive,HTFT,X/1,4.7,True,19.2,LOST,True,-1.0,actual=1/X,v25.aggressive_pick,X/1,,,,,,,,,,,,
-7fld91ykj1kfuoc8wn4r2frbo,2025-09-06,1. Lig,Lincoln City vs Wigan Ath,2-1,2-2,v26_surprise,HTFT,1/2,34.5,False,7.1,LOST,False,0.0,actual=1/X,v26.surprise_pick,1/2,0.0984,0.71,2.0,61.5,0.642,,0.044,0.0,0.0,61.7,"favorite_gap_large,favorite_price_supported,reversal_prob_hot,upset_risk_detected,quality_supports_reversal,favorite_odds_band_reversal_window",
-7fld91ykj1kfuoc8wn4r2frbo,2025-09-06,1. Lig,Lincoln City vs Wigan Ath,2-1,2-2,v26_aggressive,HTFT,1/1,3.36,True,19.5,LOST,True,-1.0,actual=1/X,v26.aggressive_pick,1/1,,,,,,,,,,,,
-7i4nhkex1qssyp3x6rsgj03ro,2025-09-06,1. Lig,Wycombe vs Mansfield,1-0,2-0,v25_aggressive,HTFT,X/2,6.92,True,11.1,LOST,True,-1.0,actual=1/1,v25.aggressive_pick,X/2,,,,,,,,,,,,
-7i4nhkex1qssyp3x6rsgj03ro,2025-09-06,1. Lig,Wycombe vs Mansfield,1-0,2-0,v26_main_htft,HTFT,2/2,5.22,False,39.9,LOST,False,0.0,actual=1/1,v26.main_pick,,,,,,,,,,,0.0,,
-7hagai8xazmsj5exw7idwhhck,2025-09-06,1. Lig,Rotherham vs Exeter City,1-0,1-0,v25_aggressive,HTFT,X/2,6.28,True,6.7,LOST,True,-1.0,actual=1/1,v25.aggressive_pick,X/2,,,,,,,,,,,,
-7hagai8xazmsj5exw7idwhhck,2025-09-06,1. Lig,Rotherham vs Exeter City,1-0,1-0,v26_aggressive,HTFT,2/2,4.47,True,29.6,LOST,True,-1.0,actual=1/1,v26.aggressive_pick,2/2,,,,,,,,,,,,
-6e37x17qvk0snpokd1698lkb8,2025-09-06,Premiership,Crusaders vs Coleraine,0-3,0-4,v25_aggressive,HTFT,X/2,4.24,True,11.5,LOST,True,-1.0,actual=2/2,v25.aggressive_pick,X/2,,,,,,,,,,,,
-6e37x17qvk0snpokd1698lkb8,2025-09-06,Premiership,Crusaders vs Coleraine,0-3,0-4,v26_aggressive,HTFT,2/2,2.32,True,37.7,WON,True,1.32,actual=2/2,v26.aggressive_pick,2/2,,,,,,,,,,,,
-6f0fqlafaei9oj8yd9hdi6rdg,2025-09-06,Premiership,Linfield vs Portadown,0-0,3-0,v25_aggressive,HTFT,2/1,23.2,True,18.6,LOST,True,-1.0,actual=X/1,v25.aggressive_pick,2/1,,,,,,,,,,,,
-6f0fqlafaei9oj8yd9hdi6rdg,2025-09-06,Premiership,Linfield vs Portadown,0-0,3-0,v26_aggressive,HTFT,1/1,1.74,True,20.4,LOST,True,-1.0,actual=X/1,v26.aggressive_pick,1/1,,,,,,,,,,,,
-6dny1bmxcj6shc5382dno2al0,2025-09-06,Premiership,Carrick vs Cliftonville,0-1,1-2,v25_aggressive,HTFT,2/1,30.5,True,14.4,LOST,True,-1.0,actual=2/2,v25.aggressive_pick,2/1,,,,,,,,,,,,
-6dny1bmxcj6shc5382dno2al0,2025-09-06,Premiership,Carrick vs Cliftonville,0-1,1-2,v26_surprise,HTFT,2/1,30.5,False,10.1,LOST,False,0.0,actual=2/2,v26.surprise_pick,2/1,0.1401,0.59,1.97,62.8,0.642,,0.0667,0.0,0.0,66.2,"favorite_price_supported,reversal_prob_hot,quality_supports_reversal,favorite_odds_band_reversal_window,league_strict_reversal_prior,draw_pressure_supports_swing",
-6dny1bmxcj6shc5382dno2al0,2025-09-06,Premiership,Carrick vs Cliftonville,0-1,1-2,v26_aggressive,HTFT,1/1,4.36,True,14.6,LOST,True,-1.0,actual=2/2,v26.aggressive_pick,1/1,,,,,,,,,,,,
-9d9nwo82prx06riy5odgnr190,2025-09-06,2. Lig,Walsall vs Chesterfield,1-0,1-0,v25_aggressive,HTFT,X/2,5.38,True,10.3,LOST,True,-1.0,actual=1/1,v25.aggressive_pick,X/2,,,,,,,,,,,,
-9d9nwo82prx06riy5odgnr190,2025-09-06,2. Lig,Walsall vs Chesterfield,1-0,1-0,v26_aggressive,HTFT,2/2,3.78,True,35.1,LOST,True,-1.0,actual=1/1,v26.aggressive_pick,2/2,,,,,,,,,,,,
-7dwtx5tr7g66bsqkoc1wos9as,2025-09-06,1. Lig,Bolton vs Wimbledon,1-0,3-0,v25_aggressive,HTFT,X/1,3.76,True,12.1,LOST,True,-1.0,actual=1/1,v25.aggressive_pick,X/1,,,,,,,,,,,,
-7dwtx5tr7g66bsqkoc1wos9as,2025-09-06,1. Lig,Bolton vs Wimbledon,1-0,3-0,v26_aggressive,HTFT,1/1,1.81,True,33.3,WON,True,0.81,actual=1/1,v26.aggressive_pick,1/1,,,,,,,,,,,,
-7c85gguekhbhadtm7qdbgir6c,2025-09-06,Ulusal Lig,Tamworth vs Eastleigh,0-0,1-0,v25_aggressive,HTFT,1/2,34.5,True,14.1,LOST,True,-1.0,actual=X/1,v25.aggressive_pick,1/2,,,,,,,,,,,,
-7c85gguekhbhadtm7qdbgir6c,2025-09-06,Ulusal Lig,Tamworth vs Eastleigh,0-0,1-0,v26_aggressive,HTFT,2/2,5.53,True,14.8,LOST,True,-1.0,actual=X/1,v26.aggressive_pick,2/2,,,,,,,,,,,,
@@ -1,149 +0,0 @@
-# HT/FT + Upset Backtest
-
- Sample: last 120 finished football matches
- Scope: only HT/FT reversal and upset-oriented picks
- ROI: flat `1 unit` per played pick
- Generated at: 2026-04-21T12:32:14.419378+00:00
-
-## Strategy Summary
-
-| Strategy | Candidates | Played | Won | Lost | Hit Rate | Profit | ROI |
-|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
-| v25_aggressive | 16 | 16 | 1 | 15 | 6.25% | -11.99 | -74.94% |
-| v26_surprise | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | +0.00 | +0.00% |
-| v26_aggressive | 13 | 13 | 3 | 10 | 23.08% | -4.36 | -33.54% |
-| v26_main_htft | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | +0.00 | +0.00% |
-
-## v26 Surprise By Reversal Type
-
-| Reversal | Candidates | Played | Won | Lost | Profit | ROI |
-|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
-| 1/2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0.00 | +0.00% |
-| 2/1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0.00 | +0.00% |
-| X/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0.00 | +0.00% |
-| X/2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0.00 | +0.00% |
-
-## Match Detail
-
-| Date | Match | HT | FT | v25 aggressive | v26 surprise | v26 aggressive | v26 main HTFT |
-|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
-| 2025-09-06 | Forge FC vs Hfx Wan | 0-0 | 1-0 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Estoril vs Santa Clara | 0-0 | 0-1 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Tenerife vs Merida AD | 1-0 | 3-0 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Ibiza vs Hercules | 2-1 | 2-1 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | V. Sarsfield vs C. Cordoba | 0-0 | 2-0 | 2/1 (LOST, played, -1.00) | - | 1/1 (LOST, played, -1.00) | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Botafogo vs Paranaense | 0-1 | 1-3 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | San Felipe vs Curico Unido | 2-0 | 4-2 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Nacional Potosi vs Independiente | 0-1 | 0-3 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Avusturya vs G. Kıbrıs Rum Kesimi | 0-0 | 1-0 | X/1 (WON, played, +3.01) | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | CD Estepona FS vs Linares | 1-0 | 1-1 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Pergolettese vs Cittadella | 2-1 | 3-1 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Union Brescia vs Pro Vercelli | 2-0 | 5-0 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Casertana vs Potenza | 1-1 | 3-2 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Montevideo vs Danubio | 0-2 | 0-2 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Hoogstraten vs W. Beveren | 0-0 | 1-3 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Cambuur vs Willem II | 0-1 | 2-2 | 2/1 (LOST, played, -1.00) | - | 1/1 (LOST, played, -1.00) | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Tlaxcala vs A. Oaxaca | 1-0 | 2-1 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | JS Kabylie vs Olympique Akbou | 0-0 | 0-0 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | CD A. Baleares vs Castellon II | 3-0 | 3-0 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Karlovac 1919 vs Dugopolje | 0-0 | 1-0 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | San Sebastian R. vs RSD Alcala | 1-0 | 1-0 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Hindistan U23 vs Katar U23 | 0-1 | 1-2 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Estradense vs Boiro | 0-0 | 1-0 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Yeclano II vs El Palmar | 1-0 | 2-1 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Montlouis vs La Roche | 0-3 | 1-4 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | L'Hospitalet vs San Cristobal | 0-0 | 1-0 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Marchamalo vs Guadalajara II | 1-1 | 1-1 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Real Zaragoza vs R. Valladolid | 0-0 | 1-1 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Bromley vs Gillingham | 2-0 | 2-2 | 2/1 (LOST, played, -1.00) | 1/2 (LOST, not played, +0.00) | 1/1 (LOST, played, -1.00) | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Ajman Club vs Al Wahda | 2-1 | 2-4 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Aldershot vs Brackley | 1-0 | 2-2 | X/2 (LOST, played, -1.00) | - | 2/2 (LOST, played, -1.00) | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Barbastro vs UE Olot | 1-0 | 1-1 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | CA Atlanta vs Guemes | 1-0 | 1-0 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Pulpileno vs UCAM Murcia II | 0-0 | 1-1 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Mojados vs Santa Marta | 0-2 | 1-3 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Ermenistan vs Portekiz | 0-3 | 0-5 | X/2 (LOST, played, -1.00) | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | USM Khenchela vs CR Belouizdad | 1-0 | 1-1 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Nafta vs Gorica | 0-0 | 1-0 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | CS Cerrito vs Atenas | 0-0 | 0-3 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | VfB Oldenburg vs Hannoverscher | 4-1 | 6-1 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Lealtad vs Numancia | 1-1 | 1-1 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Astorga vs Real Avila | 0-0 | 1-3 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Grindavik vs IR Reykjavik | 2-1 | 3-1 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Andratx vs Sant Andreu | 0-0 | 1-0 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Arenas Getxo vs Cacereno | 2-1 | 2-2 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Aegir vs Dalvik / Reynir | 1-1 | 2-1 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Laval II vs Cesson | 0-0 | 0-1 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Palencia CF vs Arandina | 3-0 | 4-0 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Leioa vs Pasaia | 0-0 | 0-1 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Vic vs UE Cornella | 0-0 | 0-1 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Voltigeurs vs Granville | 1-2 | 3-2 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Bobigny vs Creteil | 0-1 | 1-1 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Beauvais vs Furiani Agliani | 0-0 | 2-2 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Oissel vs Caen II | 0-1 | 0-2 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Cartagena LU II vs Un. Molinense | 0-2 | 1-2 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Hercules II vs Atzeneta | 0-1 | 0-3 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Sassari vs Pianese | 0-0 | 0-2 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Giugliano vs Foggia | 0-0 | 1-0 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Sorrento vs Trapani 1905 | 0-0 | 1-2 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Ascoli vs Juventus U23 | 0-0 | 0-0 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Arezzo vs Vis Pesaro | 0-0 | 1-0 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Ath. Carpi vs Campobasso | 0-0 | 2-2 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Oviedo II vs Sarriana | 2-0 | 3-2 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Llosetense vs Platges | 0-0 | 1-0 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Le Havre (K) vs Strasbourg (K) | 2-2 | 2-2 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Montpellier (K) vs Fleury 91 (K) | 0-1 | 1-2 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Bistrica vs NK Krsko | 3-0 | 6-0 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Bilje vs Dravinja | 1-0 | 2-0 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Nantes (K) vs Saint-Etienne (K) | 2-1 | 2-1 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Jadran Dekani vs NK Ilirija | 3-1 | 3-1 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Tabor Sezana vs Jesenice | 0-0 | 1-0 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Alaves II vs Logrones | 0-0 | 2-0 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Unionistas II vs Tordesillas | 1-1 | 1-1 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Leganes II vs Alcorcon II | 0-0 | 0-0 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Volna Pinsk vs Bumprom | 0-1 | 0-1 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | L. Mikulas vs S. Bratislava II | 0-0 | 2-1 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Dubrava vs Hrvace | 0-1 | 2-1 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Plymouth vs Stockport | 2-1 | 4-2 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Port Vale vs Leyton Orient | 1-2 | 2-3 | X/1 (LOST, played, -1.00) | 1/2 (LOST, not played, +0.00) | 2/2 (WON, played, +3.51) | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Huddersfield vs Peterborough | 0-0 | 3-2 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Lincoln City vs Wigan Ath | 2-1 | 2-2 | X/1 (LOST, played, -1.00) | 1/2 (LOST, not played, +0.00) | 1/1 (LOST, played, -1.00) | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Wycombe vs Mansfield | 1-0 | 2-0 | X/2 (LOST, played, -1.00) | - | - | 2/2 (LOST, not played, +0.00) |
-| 2025-09-06 | Rotherham vs Exeter City | 1-0 | 1-0 | X/2 (LOST, played, -1.00) | - | 2/2 (LOST, played, -1.00) | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Ballymena Utd vs Glentoran | 0-2 | 0-2 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Crusaders vs Coleraine | 0-3 | 0-4 | X/2 (LOST, played, -1.00) | - | 2/2 (WON, played, +1.32) | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Glenavon vs Dungannon | 0-2 | 0-2 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Linfield vs Portadown | 0-0 | 3-0 | 2/1 (LOST, played, -1.00) | - | 1/1 (LOST, played, -1.00) | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Colchester vs Crewe | 0-1 | 1-1 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | G. Morton vs Raith Rovers | 0-0 | 0-1 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Puchov vs Pohronie | 0-1 | 3-1 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Carrick vs Cliftonville | 0-1 | 1-2 | 2/1 (LOST, played, -1.00) | 2/1 (LOST, not played, +0.00) | 1/1 (LOST, played, -1.00) | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Harrogate vs Crawley Town | 0-1 | 0-1 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Walsall vs Chesterfield | 1-0 | 1-0 | X/2 (LOST, played, -1.00) | - | 2/2 (LOST, played, -1.00) | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Banik Lehota vs Samorin | 1-0 | 2-1 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Bolton vs Wimbledon | 1-0 | 3-0 | X/1 (LOST, played, -1.00) | - | 1/1 (WON, played, +0.81) | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Edinburgh vs Hearts II | 4-1 | 4-2 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Kelty Hearts vs Stranraer | 0-0 | 3-0 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Forfar vs Dundee II | 2-1 | 4-1 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Spartans vs Hibernian II | 2-0 | 5-1 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | East Kilbride vs Hamilton | 0-2 | 2-4 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Annan Ath vs St. Mirren II | 0-1 | 2-2 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | East Fife vs Dumbarton | 1-0 | 1-1 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Clyde vs Motherwell II | 3-0 | 4-0 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Peterhead vs Dundee United II | 2-0 | 3-0 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Montrose vs Aberdeen II | 2-1 | 3-1 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Elgin City vs Cove Rangers | 1-0 | 1-0 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Queen Of S. vs Rangers II | 0-0 | 2-1 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Boston Utd vs Solihull | 1-1 | 1-2 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Carlisle vs Truro | 2-0 | 3-0 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Southend vs Halifax | 1-0 | 3-0 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Woking vs Gateshead | 2-0 | 5-0 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Tamworth vs Eastleigh | 0-0 | 1-0 | 1/2 (LOST, played, -1.00) | - | 2/2 (LOST, played, -1.00) | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Alcorcon vs Teruel | 1-1 | 2-1 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Merthyr vs Worksop | 0-0 | 2-0 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Chesham Utd vs Bath | 0-0 | 0-0 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Southport vs South Shields | 0-0 | 0-0 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Kidderminster vs Macclesfield | 0-0 | 1-1 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Throttur Vogar vs Höttur / Huginn | 0-0 | 2-1 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Alfreton vs Kings Lynn | 0-0 | 1-1 | - | - | - | - |
-| 2025-09-06 | Buxton vs Oxford City | 1-0 | 2-1 | - | - | - | - |
@@ -1,8 +1,8 @@
 {
-  "trained_at": "2026-04-14 17:20:03",
+  "trained_at": "2026-05-06 15:53:36",
  "market_results": {
    "MS": {
-      "samples": 9791,
+      "samples": 106428,
      "features_used": [
        "home_overall_elo",
        "away_overall_elo",
@@ -107,19 +107,19 @@
        "home_goals_form",
        "away_goals_form"
      ],
-      "train_samples": 6853,
-      "val_samples": 1469,
-      "test_samples": 1469,
-      "xgb_accuracy": 0.8938,
-      "xgb_logloss": 0.2263,
-      "lgb_accuracy": 0.8938,
-      "lgb_logloss": 0.2214,
-      "ensemble_accuracy": 0.8945,
-      "ensemble_logloss": 0.2226,
+      "train_samples": 74499,
+      "val_samples": 15964,
+      "test_samples": 15965,
+      "xgb_accuracy": 0.5437,
+      "xgb_logloss": 0.9429,
+      "lgb_accuracy": 0.5436,
+      "lgb_logloss": 0.9423,
+      "ensemble_accuracy": 0.5442,
+      "ensemble_logloss": 0.9418,
      "class_count": 3
    },
    "OU15": {
-      "samples": 9791,
+      "samples": 106428,
      "features_used": [
        "home_overall_elo",
        "away_overall_elo",
@@ -224,19 +224,19 @@
        "home_goals_form",
        "away_goals_form"
      ],
-      "train_samples": 6853,
-      "val_samples": 1469,
-      "test_samples": 1469,
-      "xgb_accuracy": 0.9088,
-      "xgb_logloss": 0.1758,
-      "lgb_accuracy": 0.9067,
-      "lgb_logloss": 0.1783,
-      "ensemble_accuracy": 0.9108,
-      "ensemble_logloss": 0.1753,
+      "train_samples": 74499,
+      "val_samples": 15964,
+      "test_samples": 15965,
+      "xgb_accuracy": 0.753,
+      "xgb_logloss": 0.5256,
+      "lgb_accuracy": 0.7523,
+      "lgb_logloss": 0.5262,
+      "ensemble_accuracy": 0.7533,
+      "ensemble_logloss": 0.5254,
      "class_count": 2
    },
    "OU25": {
-      "samples": 9791,
+      "samples": 106428,
      "features_used": [
        "home_overall_elo",
        "away_overall_elo",
@@ -341,19 +341,19 @@
        "home_goals_form",
        "away_goals_form"
      ],
-      "train_samples": 6853,
-      "val_samples": 1469,
-      "test_samples": 1469,
-      "xgb_accuracy": 0.9204,
-      "xgb_logloss": 0.1535,
-      "lgb_accuracy": 0.9224,
-      "lgb_logloss": 0.1523,
-      "ensemble_accuracy": 0.9217,
-      "ensemble_logloss": 0.1518,
+      "train_samples": 74499,
+      "val_samples": 15964,
+      "test_samples": 15965,
+      "xgb_accuracy": 0.6253,
+      "xgb_logloss": 0.635,
+      "lgb_accuracy": 0.6246,
+      "lgb_logloss": 0.6347,
+      "ensemble_accuracy": 0.6262,
+      "ensemble_logloss": 0.6343,
      "class_count": 2
    },
    "OU35": {
-      "samples": 9791,
+      "samples": 106428,
      "features_used": [
        "home_overall_elo",
        "away_overall_elo",
@@ -458,19 +458,19 @@
        "home_goals_form",
        "away_goals_form"
      ],
-      "train_samples": 6853,
-      "val_samples": 1469,
-      "test_samples": 1469,
-      "xgb_accuracy": 0.9578,
-      "xgb_logloss": 0.1171,
-      "lgb_accuracy": 0.9564,
-      "lgb_logloss": 0.1144,
-      "ensemble_accuracy": 0.9571,
-      "ensemble_logloss": 0.1149,
+      "train_samples": 74499,
+      "val_samples": 15964,
+      "test_samples": 15965,
+      "xgb_accuracy": 0.7283,
+      "xgb_logloss": 0.5463,
+      "lgb_accuracy": 0.7304,
+      "lgb_logloss": 0.546,
+      "ensemble_accuracy": 0.7297,
+      "ensemble_logloss": 0.5456,
      "class_count": 2
    },
    "BTTS": {
-      "samples": 9791,
+      "samples": 106428,
      "features_used": [
        "home_overall_elo",
        "away_overall_elo",
@@ -575,19 +575,19 @@
        "home_goals_form",
        "away_goals_form"
      ],
-      "train_samples": 6853,
-      "val_samples": 1469,
-      "test_samples": 1469,
-      "xgb_accuracy": 0.9238,
-      "xgb_logloss": 0.1439,
-      "lgb_accuracy": 0.9265,
-      "lgb_logloss": 0.143,
-      "ensemble_accuracy": 0.9265,
-      "ensemble_logloss": 0.1424,
+      "train_samples": 74499,
+      "val_samples": 15964,
+      "test_samples": 15965,
+      "xgb_accuracy": 0.5894,
+      "xgb_logloss": 0.6636,
+      "lgb_accuracy": 0.5928,
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+      "lgb_best_params": {
+        "max_depth": 5,
+        "learning_rate": 0.013909897616748226,
+        "feature_fraction": 0.5585477334219859,
+        "bagging_fraction": 0.9398770580467641,
+        "bagging_freq": 2,
+        "min_child_samples": 22,
+        "lambda_l1": 0.001865897980802303,
+        "lambda_l2": 2.6934572591055333e-06
+      },
+      "xgb_best_iteration": 188,
+      "lgb_best_iteration": 387,
+      "xgb_optuna_best_logloss": 0.616,
+      "lgb_optuna_best_logloss": 0.6159,
+      "test_xgb_raw": {
+        "accuracy": 0.6749,
+        "logloss": 0.6109
+      },
+      "test_xgb_calibrated": {
+        "accuracy": 0.6747,
+        "logloss": 0.6137
+      },
+      "test_lgb_raw": {
+        "accuracy": 0.6745,
+        "logloss": 0.6112
+      },
+      "test_lgb_calibrated": {
+        "accuracy": 0.6745,
+        "logloss": 0.6201
+      },
+      "test_ensemble_raw": {
+        "accuracy": 0.674,
+        "logloss": 0.6109
+      },
+      "test_ensemble_calibrated": {
+        "accuracy": 0.6744,
+        "logloss": 0.6174
+      }
+    },
+    "HTFT": {
+      "market": "HTFT",
+      "samples": 103641,
+      "train": 62184,
+      "val": 15546,
+      "cal": 10364,
+      "test": 15547,
+      "features_used": 114,
+      "xgb_best_params": {
+        "max_depth": 4,
+        "eta": 0.015239309183459821,
+        "subsample": 0.7923828997985648,
+        "colsample_bytree": 0.686316507387916,
+        "min_child_weight": 6,
+        "gamma": 0.005249577944740401,
+        "reg_lambda": 2.1813455810361064e-08,
+        "reg_alpha": 3.454483107951557e-06
+      },
+      "lgb_best_params": {
+        "max_depth": 4,
+        "learning_rate": 0.010347899501864056,
+        "feature_fraction": 0.9585697341293057,
+        "bagging_fraction": 0.9413628962257758,
+        "bagging_freq": 2,
+        "min_child_samples": 36,
+        "lambda_l1": 0.0015332771659626943,
+        "lambda_l2": 7.3640280079715765
+      },
+      "xgb_best_iteration": 714,
+      "lgb_best_iteration": 602,
+      "xgb_optuna_best_logloss": 1.7863,
+      "lgb_optuna_best_logloss": 1.7862,
+      "test_xgb_raw": {
+        "accuracy": 0.3349,
+        "logloss": 1.8179
+      },
+      "test_xgb_calibrated": {
+        "accuracy": 0.3332,
+        "logloss": 1.824
+      },
+      "test_lgb_raw": {
+        "accuracy": 0.3367,
+        "logloss": 1.8187
+      },
+      "test_lgb_calibrated": {
+        "accuracy": 0.335,
+        "logloss": 1.8338
+      },
+      "test_ensemble_raw": {
+        "accuracy": 0.3363,
+        "logloss": 1.8176
+      },
+      "test_ensemble_calibrated": {
+        "accuracy": 0.3338,
+        "logloss": 1.828
+      }
+    },
+    "ODD_EVEN": {
+      "market": "ODD_EVEN",
+      "samples": 106861,
+      "train": 64116,
+      "val": 16029,
+      "cal": 10686,
+      "test": 16030,
+      "features_used": 114,
+      "xgb_best_params": {
+        "max_depth": 8,
+        "eta": 0.01010929937405026,
+        "subsample": 0.9492996501687384,
+        "colsample_bytree": 0.9061960005014683,
+        "min_child_weight": 7,
+        "gamma": 2.664416507237002e-08,
+        "reg_lambda": 0.0003748192960525308,
+        "reg_alpha": 0.005287068300306146
+      },
+      "lgb_best_params": {
+        "max_depth": 8,
+        "learning_rate": 0.0634879805509945,
+        "feature_fraction": 0.9993568368122896,
+        "bagging_fraction": 0.9246236397710591,
+        "bagging_freq": 3,
+        "min_child_samples": 16,
+        "lambda_l1": 0.0016414429853061781,
+        "lambda_l2": 6.112007631403553e-05
+      },
+      "xgb_best_iteration": 322,
+      "lgb_best_iteration": 55,
+      "xgb_optuna_best_logloss": 0.6777,
+      "lgb_optuna_best_logloss": 0.6762,
+      "test_xgb_raw": {
+        "accuracy": 0.5216,
+        "logloss": 0.684
+      },
+      "test_xgb_calibrated": {
+        "accuracy": 0.5236,
+        "logloss": 0.6834
+      },
+      "test_lgb_raw": {
+        "accuracy": 0.5279,
+        "logloss": 0.6826
+      },
+      "test_lgb_calibrated": {
+        "accuracy": 0.5274,
+        "logloss": 0.6861
+      },
+      "test_ensemble_raw": {
+        "accuracy": 0.5239,
+        "logloss": 0.6828
+      },
+      "test_ensemble_calibrated": {
+        "accuracy": 0.5236,
+        "logloss": 0.6861
+      }
+    },
+    "CARDS_OU45": {
+      "market": "CARDS_OU45",
+      "samples": 106861,
+      "train": 64116,
+      "val": 16029,
+      "cal": 10686,
+      "test": 16030,
+      "features_used": 114,
+      "xgb_best_params": {
+        "max_depth": 8,
+        "eta": 0.010098671964329344,
+        "subsample": 0.9969616653360747,
+        "colsample_bytree": 0.5085930751344795,
+        "min_child_weight": 10,
+        "gamma": 0.8600893137103568,
+        "reg_lambda": 7.556243125116086,
+        "reg_alpha": 0.5596869360839299
+      },
+      "lgb_best_params": {
+        "max_depth": 8,
+        "learning_rate": 0.0183440412249233,
+        "feature_fraction": 0.5416111323291537,
+        "bagging_fraction": 0.9754210612419695,
+        "bagging_freq": 2,
+        "min_child_samples": 5,
+        "lambda_l1": 0.09157782079463243,
+        "lambda_l2": 2.559000594641019
+      },
+      "xgb_best_iteration": 973,
+      "lgb_best_iteration": 503,
+      "xgb_optuna_best_logloss": 0.6408,
+      "lgb_optuna_best_logloss": 0.6407,
+      "test_xgb_raw": {
+        "accuracy": 0.597,
+        "logloss": 0.6501
+      },
+      "test_xgb_calibrated": {
+        "accuracy": 0.6019,
+        "logloss": 0.6471
+      },
+      "test_lgb_raw": {
+        "accuracy": 0.5977,
+        "logloss": 0.6486
+      },
+      "test_lgb_calibrated": {
+        "accuracy": 0.6019,
+        "logloss": 0.6498
+      },
+      "test_ensemble_raw": {
+        "accuracy": 0.5964,
+        "logloss": 0.6487
+      },
+      "test_ensemble_calibrated": {
+        "accuracy": 0.6034,
+        "logloss": 0.6467
+      }
+    },
+    "HANDICAP_MS": {
+      "market": "HANDICAP_MS",
+      "samples": 106861,
+      "train": 64116,
+      "val": 16029,
+      "cal": 10686,
+      "test": 16030,
+      "features_used": 114,
+      "xgb_best_params": {
+        "max_depth": 4,
+        "eta": 0.01475719431584365,
+        "subsample": 0.867899230696633,
+        "colsample_bytree": 0.6518567347674479,
+        "min_child_weight": 9,
+        "gamma": 0.34932767754310273,
+        "reg_lambda": 3.3257801082201637e-07,
+        "reg_alpha": 4.6977721450875555e-06
+      },
+      "lgb_best_params": {
+        "max_depth": 7,
+        "learning_rate": 0.019649745228555244,
+        "feature_fraction": 0.7903699430858344,
+        "bagging_fraction": 0.7932436899357213,
+        "bagging_freq": 3,
+        "min_child_samples": 30,
+        "lambda_l1": 9.496143774926949e-08,
+        "lambda_l2": 0.0049885051588706136
+      },
+      "xgb_best_iteration": 1016,
+      "lgb_best_iteration": 364,
+      "xgb_optuna_best_logloss": 0.8328,
+      "lgb_optuna_best_logloss": 0.8322,
+      "test_xgb_raw": {
+        "accuracy": 0.6062,
+        "logloss": 0.871
+      },
+      "test_xgb_calibrated": {
+        "accuracy": 0.6039,
+        "logloss": 0.8729
+      },
+      "test_lgb_raw": {
+        "accuracy": 0.6079,
+        "logloss": 0.8713
+      },
+      "test_lgb_calibrated": {
+        "accuracy": 0.6067,
+        "logloss": 0.8736
+      },
+      "test_ensemble_raw": {
+        "accuracy": 0.6072,
+        "logloss": 0.8707
+      },
+      "test_ensemble_calibrated": {
+        "accuracy": 0.6066,
+        "logloss": 0.8728
+      }
+    }
+  }
+}
@@ -1,206 +0,0 @@
-"""
-Backtest for September 13th (Top Leagues Only)
-==============================================
-Simulates the NEW 'Skip Logic' on matches from Sept 13, 2025.
-"""
-
-import os
-import sys
-import json
-import psycopg2
-from psycopg2.extras import RealDictCursor
-from datetime import datetime
-
-# Load .env manually to ensure correct DB connection
-project_root = os.path.dirname(os.path.dirname(os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__))))
-sys.path.insert(0, project_root) # Add root to path if needed
-
-def get_clean_dsn() -> str:
-    return "postgresql://suggestbet:SuGGesT2026SecuRe@localhost:15432/boilerplate_db"
-
-# ─── Configuration ─────────
-MIN_CONF_THRESHOLDS = {
-    "MS": 45.0, "DC": 40.0, "OU15": 50.0, "OU25": 45.0, 
-    "OU35": 45.0, "BTTS": 45.0, "HT": 40.0,
-}
-
-def run_backtest():
-    print("🚀 Backtest: 13 Eylül 2024 - Top Leagues")
-    print("="*60)
-
-    # 1. Load Top Leagues
-    leagues_path = os.path.join(project_root, "top_leagues.json")
-    try:
-        with open(leagues_path, 'r') as f:
-            top_leagues = json.load(f)
-        # Ensure they are strings for SQL IN clause
-        league_ids = tuple(str(lid) for lid in top_leagues)
-        print(f"📋 Loaded {len(top_leagues)} top leagues.")
-    except Exception as e:
-        print(f"❌ Error loading top_leagues.json: {e}")
-        return
-
-    # 2. Define Date Range (Sept 13, 2024 UTC)
-    start_dt = datetime(2024, 9, 13, 0, 0, 0)
-    end_dt = datetime(2024, 9, 13, 23, 59, 59)
-    start_ts = int(start_dt.timestamp() * 1000)
-    end_ts = int(end_dt.timestamp() * 1000)
-
-    dsn = get_clean_dsn()
-    conn = psycopg2.connect(dsn)
-    cur = conn.cursor(cursor_factory=RealDictCursor)
-
-    # 3. Fetch Matches & Predictions
-    # We need matches that are FT and have a prediction
-    query = """
-        SELECT p.match_id, p.prediction_json,
-               m.score_home, m.score_away, m.status, m.league_id
-        FROM predictions p
-        JOIN matches m ON p.match_id = m.id
-        WHERE m.mst_utc BETWEEN %s AND %s
-          AND m.league_id IN %s
-          AND m.status = 'FT'
-          AND p.prediction_json IS NOT NULL
-    """
-    
-    try:
-        cur.execute(query, (start_ts, end_ts, league_ids))
-        rows = cur.fetchall()
-    except Exception as e:
-        print(f"❌ DB Error: {e}")
-        cur.close()
-        conn.close()
-        return
-
-    print(f"📊 Found {len(rows)} matches with predictions on Sept 13, 2024.")
-
-    if not rows:
-        print("⚠️ No predictions found for this date. The AI Engine might not have processed these historical matches yet.")
-        print("💡 Tip: Run the feeder or AI engine on this date range to generate predictions first.")
-        cur.close()
-        conn.close()
-        return
-
-    total_bets = 0
-    winning_bets = 0
-    skipped_bets = 0
-    total_profit = 0.0
-
-    for row in rows:
-        data = row['prediction_json']
-        if isinstance(data, str):
-            data = json.loads(data)
-
-        home_score = row['score_home'] or 0
-        away_score = row['score_away'] or 0
-        total_goals = home_score + away_score
-
-        # Extract Main Pick
-        main_pick = None
-        main_pick_conf = 0.0
-        main_pick_odds = 0.0
-        
-        if "main_pick" in data and isinstance(data["main_pick"], dict):
-            mp = data["main_pick"]
-            main_pick = mp.get("pick")
-            main_pick_conf = mp.get("confidence", 0.0)
-            main_pick_odds = mp.get("odds", 0.0)
-        
-        if not main_pick or not main_pick_conf:
-            continue
-
-        # Determine Market Type
-        pick_str = str(main_pick).upper()
-        market_type = "MS"
-        if "1X" in pick_str or "X2" in pick_str or "12" in pick_str: market_type = "DC"
-        elif "ÜST" in pick_str or "ALT" in pick_str or "OVER" in pick_str or "UNDER" in pick_str:
-            if "1.5" in pick_str: market_type = "OU15"
-            elif "3.5" in pick_str: market_type = "OU35"
-            else: market_type = "OU25"
-        elif "VAR" in pick_str or "YOK" in pick_str or "BTTS" in pick_str: market_type = "BTTS"
-        
-        threshold = MIN_CONF_THRESHOLDS.get(market_type, 45.0)
-
-        # --- SKIP LOGIC ---
-        # 1. Confidence Gate
-        if main_pick_conf < threshold:
-            skipped_bets += 1
-            continue
-
-        # 2. Value Gate
-        if main_pick_odds > 0:
-            implied_prob = 1.0 / main_pick_odds
-            my_prob = main_pick_conf / 100.0
-            edge = my_prob - implied_prob
-            if edge < -0.03:
-                skipped_bets += 1
-                continue
-
-        # --- BET PLAYED ---
-        total_bets += 1
-        is_won = False
-        
-        # Resolve Result
-        if market_type == "MS":
-            if (main_pick == "1" or main_pick == "MS 1") and home_score > away_score: is_won = True
-            elif (main_pick == "X" or main_pick == "MS X") and home_score == away_score: is_won = True
-            elif (main_pick == "2" or main_pick == "MS 2") and away_score > home_score: is_won = True
-            
-        elif market_type.startswith("OU"):
-            line = 2.5
-            if "1.5" in pick_str: line = 1.5
-            elif "3.5" in pick_str: line = 3.5
-            is_over = total_goals > line
-            is_under = total_goals < line
-            if ("ÜST" in pick_str or "OVER" in pick_str) and is_over: is_won = True
-            elif ("ALT" in pick_str or "UNDER" in pick_str) and is_under: is_won = True
-
-        elif market_type == "BTTS":
-            if home_score > 0 and away_score > 0:
-                if "VAR" in pick_str: is_won = True
-            else:
-                if "YOK" in pick_str: is_won = True
-        
-        elif market_type == "DC":
-            if "1X" in pick_str and home_score >= away_score: is_won = True
-            elif "X2" in pick_str and away_score >= home_score: is_won = True
-            elif "12" in pick_str and home_score != away_score: is_won = True
-
-        if is_won:
-            winning_bets += 1
-            profit = main_pick_odds - 1.0
-            total_profit += profit
-        else:
-            total_profit -= 1.0
-
-    # Report
-    print("\n" + "="*60)
-    print("📈 BACKTEST RESULTS: 13 EYLÜL 2025 (TOP LEAGUES)")
-    print("="*60)
-    print(f"Total Matches Analyzed: {len(rows)}")
-    print(f"🚫 Bets SKIPPED (Low Conf/Bad Value): {skipped_bets}")
-    print(f"✅ Bets PLAYED: {total_bets}")
-    
-    if total_bets > 0:
-        win_rate = (winning_bets / total_bets) * 100
-        roi = (total_profit / total_bets) * 100
-        
-        print(f"🏆 Winning Bets: {winning_bets}")
-        print(f"💀 Losing Bets: {total_bets - winning_bets}")
-        print("-" * 40)
-        print(f" Win Rate: {win_rate:.2f}%")
-        print(f"💰 Total Profit (Units): {total_profit:.2f}")
-        print(f"📊 ROI: {roi:.2f}%")
-        
-        if roi > 0:
-            print("🟢 STRATEGY IS PROFITABLE!")
-        else:
-            print("🔴 STRATEGY IS LOSING")
-    else:
-        print("⚠️ No bets were played. Thresholds might be too high or no suitable matches found.")
-
-    cur.close()
-    conn.close()
-
-if __name__ == "__main__":
-    run_backtest()
@@ -1,240 +0,0 @@
-"""
-Detailed Backtest with 50 Top League Matches
-============================================
-Runs AI Engine predictions on 50 real historical matches and shows
-exactly which predictions were correct and which were skipped.
-
-Usage:
-    python ai-engine/scripts/backtest_50_detailed.py
-"""
-
-import os
-import sys
-import json
-import time
-import psycopg2
-from psycopg2.extras import RealDictCursor
-
-# Add paths
-AI_DIR = os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__))
-ROOT_DIR = os.path.dirname(AI_DIR)
-sys.path.insert(0, ROOT_DIR)
-
-if "scripts" in os.path.basename(AI_DIR):
-    ROOT_DIR = os.path.dirname(ROOT_DIR)
-
-from services.single_match_orchestrator import get_single_match_orchestrator
-
-def get_clean_dsn() -> str:
-    return "postgresql://suggestbet:SuGGesT2026SecuRe@localhost:15432/boilerplate_db"
-
-# 50 Match IDs from the query
-MATCH_IDS = [
-    "v2ljcst50nk37x04xwimpi50", "7gz0bhb5yvdssazl3y5946kno", "7ftj7kbu4rzpewxravf3luuc4",
-    "7f1z4e8ch1dm5q677644cky6s", "7ffq3aq3so22iymfdzch63nys", "rrkmeuymz7gzvoz8mplikzdg",
-    "7hegc9covicy699bxsi81xkb8", "7gl7rpr1hjayk3e5ut0gr613o", "7g7d86i3738287xfvyfeffcwk",
-    "7hs4boe4hv80muawocevvx2j8", "7ijhsloieg4t9yp5cxp0duln8", "7ixaiiptli5ek32kuybuni4gk",
-    "7i5sfh41cjpwg4l972dm487x0", "eo7g4wunxxxr8uv45q8p5x638", "7dinds2937w4645wva2rddlas",
-    "7b5ukdhvqh62wtndeqfg01ixg", "7bjptsj24gndoydn7n0202g44", "7cqxf3vo58ewrwmoom5xiyexg",
-    "7bxjl9h2hnf165rlp3o1vfztg", "7eo8zrez08c342rqsezpvq39w", "7as1muhs98vdarlhsean4bspg",
-    "7dwhj8cfxv6v6bzxpu5e3h05w", "7d4vq4417ps84yjzh95bnvvv8", "7ea9z501jgp9kxw3gay4myrkk",
-    "7cd3401itlty6ded7c1wct0yc", "ebgpz9mcije2snv986n6587pw", "i7ar1dkhvcwpxmkyks65ib6c",
-    "lyek7tyy6qk2xjs9vblucnx0", "hdn9qtyn3ysjwbc3i2trantg", "3y2bnssfqlajosiz2gpkn6xhw",
-    "40pehd14s9djjtycujavbex3o", "3xnbfjznzmnwml20akbgnis5w", "2eovi2rcc2l4ha7fpb2w7e1hw",
-    "2bwuikdjyyuithhru8ka8o00k", "2d3pcd76ya9ihi9yotxc553is", "1e9it04z4epy2etdxsffe7m6s",
-    "7af49jgo4iulv1k8cplj9smj8", "5k3vrz619hdu9nx4rnx6uim1g", "amjppgpetnyr0iisi241kgkyc",
-    "coqrhq09kxd16iejvgtzj3mz8", "d8ysan1qdctmkvjaz2adw7aqc", "9ttciz0gtb0z09ev1q5fe0ro4",
-    "9u720o37yaddqu1w6hlszpnh0", "7ijezdjp8t0rjti91ac63hyxg", "72gvdvztbb3dn79jidzzxzcb8",
-    "6uof1v2s6vrpieeml2bwo9tlg", "91dd8ia3m0bxoqzjgyo3ptsk", "3tj1nt3udsbvb9soqn2cs6gpg",
-    "1br5g88o5idtjxka1fr6zg4k4", "akuesquthbmxlzckvnqmgles4"
-]
-
-def run_detailed_backtest():
-    print("🚀 DETAILED BACKTEST: 50 Top League Matches")
-    print("🧠 Engine: V30 Ensemble (V20+V25) + Skip Logic")
-    print("="*80)
-
-    dsn = get_clean_dsn()
-    conn = psycopg2.connect(dsn)
-    cur = conn.cursor(cursor_factory=RealDictCursor)
-
-    # Fetch match details with odds
-    placeholders = ','.join(['%s'] * len(MATCH_IDS))
-    cur.execute(f"""
-        SELECT m.id, m.match_name, m.home_team_id, m.away_team_id,
-               m.score_home, m.score_away, m.league_id,
-               t1.name as home_team, t2.name as away_team,
-               l.name as league_name
-        FROM matches m
-        LEFT JOIN teams t1 ON m.home_team_id = t1.id
-        LEFT JOIN teams t2 ON m.away_team_id = t2.id
-        LEFT JOIN leagues l ON m.league_id = l.id
-        WHERE m.id IN ({placeholders})
-          AND m.status = 'FT'
-        ORDER BY m.mst_utc DESC
-    """, MATCH_IDS)
-    
-    rows = cur.fetchall()
-    print(f"📊 Found {len(rows)} matches. Starting AI Analysis...")
-
-    if not rows:
-        print("⚠️ No matches found.")
-        cur.close()
-        conn.close()
-        return
-
-    # Initialize AI Engine
-    try:
-        orchestrator = get_single_match_orchestrator()
-        print("✅ AI Engine Loaded.\n")
-    except Exception as e:
-        print(f"❌ Failed to load AI Engine: {e}")
-        cur.close()
-        conn.close()
-        return
-
-    # ─── Backtest Loop ───
-    results = []
-    total_skipped = 0
-    total_played = 0
-    total_won = 0
-    total_profit = 0.0
-    MIN_CONF = 45.0
-
-    start_time = time.time()
-
-    for i, row in enumerate(rows):
-        match_id = str(row['id'])
-        home_team = row['home_team'] or "Unknown"
-        away_team = row['away_team'] or "Unknown"
-        league = row['league_name'] or "Unknown"
-        home_score = row['score_home'] or 0
-        away_score = row['score_away'] or 0
-        total_goals = home_score + away_score
-
-        print(f"[{i+1}/{len(rows)}] {home_team} vs {away_team} ({league}) ... ", end="", flush=True)
-
-        try:
-            prediction = orchestrator.analyze_match(match_id)
-            
-            if not prediction:
-                print("⚠️ No prediction")
-                continue
-
-            # Extract Main Pick
-            main_pick = prediction.get("main_pick") or {}
-            pick_name = main_pick.get("pick", "")
-            confidence = main_pick.get("confidence", 0)
-            odds = main_pick.get("odds", 0)
-
-            # Apply Skip Logic
-            if confidence < MIN_CONF:
-                print(f"🚫 SKIP (Conf {confidence:.0f}%)")
-                total_skipped += 1
-                results.append({"match": f"{home_team} vs {away_team}", "pick": pick_name, 
-                               "conf": confidence, "odds": odds, "result": "SKIPPED", "profit": 0})
-                continue
-
-            if odds > 0:
-                implied_prob = 1.0 / odds
-                my_prob = confidence / 100.0
-                if my_prob - implied_prob < -0.03:
-                    print(f"🚫 SKIP (Bad Value)")
-                    total_skipped += 1
-                    results.append({"match": f"{home_team} vs {away_team}", "pick": pick_name, 
-                                   "conf": confidence, "odds": odds, "result": "SKIPPED", "profit": 0})
-                    continue
-
-            # Bet Played
-            total_played += 1
-            won = False
-
-            # Resolve
-            pick_clean = str(pick_name).upper()
-            if pick_clean in ["1", "MS 1", "İY 1"] and home_score > away_score: won = True
-            elif pick_clean in ["X", "MS X", "İY X"] and home_score == away_score: won = True
-            elif pick_clean in ["2", "MS 2", "İY 2"] and away_score > home_score: won = True
-            elif pick_clean in ["1X", "X2"] or ("1X" in pick_clean or "X2" in pick_clean):
-                if "1X" in pick_clean and home_score >= away_score: won = True
-                elif "X2" in pick_clean and away_score >= home_score: won = True
-            elif pick_clean in ["12"] and home_score != away_score: won = True
-            elif "ÜST" in pick_clean or "OVER" in pick_clean:
-                line = 2.5
-                if "1.5" in pick_clean: line = 1.5
-                elif "3.5" in pick_clean: line = 3.5
-                if total_goals > line: won = True
-            elif "ALT" in pick_clean or "UNDER" in pick_clean:
-                line = 2.5
-                if "1.5" in pick_clean: line = 1.5
-                elif "3.5" in pick_clean: line = 3.5
-                if total_goals < line: won = True
-            elif "VAR" in pick_clean and home_score > 0 and away_score > 0: won = True
-            elif "YOK" in pick_clean and (home_score == 0 or away_score == 0): won = True
-
-            if won:
-                total_won += 1
-                profit = odds - 1.0
-                print(f"✅ WON ({pick_name} @ {odds:.2f}, +{profit:.2f})")
-            else:
-                profit = -1.0
-                print(f"❌ LOST ({pick_name} @ {odds:.2f})")
-            
-            total_profit += profit
-            results.append({"match": f"{home_team} vs {away_team}", "pick": pick_name, 
-                           "conf": confidence, "odds": odds, 
-                           "result": "WON" if won else "LOST", "profit": profit,
-                           "score": f"{home_score}-{away_score}"})
-
-        except Exception as e:
-            print(f"💥 Error: {e}")
-
-    elapsed = time.time() - start_time
-
-    # ─── DETAILED REPORT ───
-    print("\n" + "="*80)
-    print("📈 DETAILED BACKTEST RESULTS")
-    print(f"⏱️  Time: {elapsed:.1f}s")
-    print("="*80)
-    print(f"📊 Total Matches: {len(rows)}")
-    print(f"🚫 Skipped: {total_skipped}")
-    print(f"🎲 Played: {total_played}")
-    print(f"✅ Won: {total_won}")
-    print(f"💀 Lost: {total_played - total_won}")
-    print(f"💰 Profit: {total_profit:+.2f} units")
-    
-    if total_played > 0:
-        win_rate = (total_won / total_played) * 100
-        roi = (total_profit / total_played) * 100
-        print(f"📊 Win Rate: {win_rate:.1f}%")
-        print(f"📊 ROI: {roi:.1f}%")
-        if roi > 0:
-            print("🟢 STRATEGY IS PROFITABLE!")
-        else:
-            print("🔴 STRATEGY IS LOSING")
-
-    # ─── TABLE OF ALL RESULTS ───
-    print("\n" + "="*80)
-    print("📋 DETAILED MATCH RESULTS")
-    print("="*80)
-    print(f"{'Match':<40} {'Pick':<15} {'Conf':<6} {'Odds':<6} {'Result':<8} {'Score':<6}")
-    print("-"*80)
-    for r in results:
-        match_str = r['match'][:38]
-        pick_str = str(r['pick'])[:13]
-        conf_str = f"{r['conf']:.0f}%"
-        odds_str = f"{r['odds']:.2f}" if r['odds'] > 0 else "N/A"
-        res_str = r['result']
-        score_str = r.get('score', '')
-        
-        # Color coding
-        if res_str == "WON": res_display = f"✅ {res_str}"
-        elif res_str == "LOST": res_display = f"❌ {res_str}"
-        else: res_display = f"🚫 {res_str}"
-            
-        print(f"{match_str:<40} {pick_str:<15} {conf_str:<6} {odds_str:<6} {res_display:<12} {score_str:<6}")
-
-    cur.close()
-    conn.close()
-
-if __name__ == "__main__":
-    run_detailed_backtest()
@@ -1,191 +0,0 @@
-"""
-Adaptive 500 Match Backtest
-=============================
-Skips NO match unless NO odds exist.
-Evaluates ALL available markets (MS, OU, BTTS) and picks the BEST value bet.
-"""
-
-import os
-import sys
-import json
-import time
-import psycopg2
-from psycopg2.extras import RealDictCursor
-
-AI_DIR = os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__))
-ROOT_DIR = os.path.dirname(AI_DIR)
-sys.path.insert(0, ROOT_DIR)
-if "scripts" in os.path.basename(AI_DIR):
-    ROOT_DIR = os.path.dirname(ROOT_DIR)
-
-from services.single_match_orchestrator import get_single_match_orchestrator
-
-def get_clean_dsn() -> str:
-    return "postgresql://suggestbet:SuGGesT2026SecuRe@localhost:15432/boilerplate_db"
-
-def run_adaptive_backtest():
-    print("🔄 ADAPTIVE 500 MATCH BACKTEST")
-    print("="*60)
-    
-    # 1. Load Top Leagues
-    leagues_path = os.path.join(ROOT_DIR, "top_leagues.json")
-    with open(leagues_path, 'r') as f:
-        top_leagues = json.load(f)
-    league_ids = tuple(str(lid) for lid in top_leagues)
-
-    dsn = get_clean_dsn()
-    conn = psycopg2.connect(dsn)
-    cur = conn.cursor(cursor_factory=RealDictCursor)
-
-    # 2. Fetch 500 Finished Matches with Odds
-    cur.execute("""
-        SELECT m.id, m.match_name, m.home_team_id, m.away_team_id,
-               m.score_home, m.score_away, m.league_id,
-               t1.name as home_team, t2.name as away_team
-        FROM matches m
-        LEFT JOIN teams t1 ON m.home_team_id = t1.id
-        LEFT JOIN teams t2 ON m.away_team_id = t2.id
-        WHERE m.league_id IN %s
-          AND m.status = 'FT'
-          AND m.score_home IS NOT NULL
-          AND EXISTS (SELECT 1 FROM odd_categories oc WHERE oc.match_id = m.id)
-        ORDER BY m.mst_utc DESC
-        LIMIT 500
-    """, (league_ids,))
-    
-    rows = cur.fetchall()
-    print(f"📊 Found {len(rows)} matches. Analyzing...\n")
-
-    if not rows:
-        print("⚠️ No matches found.")
-        return
-
-    try: orchestrator = get_single_match_orchestrator()
-    except Exception as e:
-        print(f"❌ AI Error: {e}")
-        return
-
-    # Stats
-    total_evaluated = 0
-    total_bet = 0
-    total_won = 0
-    total_profit = 0.0
-    skipped_count = 0
-
-    for i, row in enumerate(rows):
-        match_id = str(row['id'])
-        home = row['home_team'] or "?"
-        away = row['away_team'] or "?"
-        h_score = row['score_home'] or 0
-        a_score = row['score_away'] or 0
-        
-        total_evaluated += 1
-        # print(f"[{i+1}] {home} vs {away} ... ", end="", flush=True)
-
-        try:
-            pred = orchestrator.analyze_match(match_id)
-            if not pred: 
-                # print("⚠️ No Data")
-                continue
-
-            # ─── ADAPTIVE PICKING ───
-            # Check ALL recommendations (Expert or Standard) to find the BEST option
-            candidates = []
-            
-            # Add main picks
-            if pred.get("expert_recommendation"):
-                rec = pred["expert_recommendation"]
-                if rec.get("main_pick"): candidates.append(rec["main_pick"])
-                if rec.get("safe_alternative"): candidates.append(rec["safe_alternative"])
-                if rec.get("value_picks"): candidates.extend(rec["value_picks"])
-            elif pred.get("main_pick"):
-                candidates.append(pred["main_pick"])
-
-            best_bet = None
-            for c in candidates:
-                if not c: continue
-                conf = c.get("confidence", 0)
-                odds = c.get("odds", 0)
-                pick = c.get("pick")
-                
-                # Flexible Criteria:
-                # 1. Confidence > 60%
-                # 2. Odds > 1.10 (Not "free" odds like 1.00)
-                # 3. Edge > -2% (Slightly tolerant)
-                if conf >= 60 and odds > 1.10:
-                    implied = 1.0 / odds
-                    edge = ((conf/100) - implied) * 100
-                    
-                    # Prioritize positive edge, but accept small negative if confidence is high
-                    if edge > -2.0:
-                        if best_bet is None or (conf > best_bet.get("confidence", 0)):
-                            best_bet = c
-
-            if best_bet:
-                pick = str(best_bet.get("pick")).upper()
-                conf = best_bet.get("confidence")
-                odds = best_bet.get("odds")
-                
-                # Resolution Logic
-                won = False
-                if pick in ["1", "MS 1", "İY 1"] and h_score > a_score: won = True
-                elif pick in ["X", "MS X", "İY X"] and h_score == a_score: won = True
-                elif pick in ["2", "MS 2", "İY 2"] and a_score > h_score: won = True
-                elif pick in ["1X", "X2"]:
-                    if "1X" in pick and h_score >= a_score: won = True
-                    elif "X2" in pick and a_score >= h_score: won = True
-                elif pick == "12" and h_score != a_score: won = True
-                elif "ÜST" in pick or "OVER" in pick:
-                    line = 2.5
-                    if "1.5" in pick: line = 1.5
-                    elif "3.5" in pick: line = 3.5
-                    if (h_score + a_score) > line: won = True
-                elif "ALT" in pick or "UNDER" in pick:
-                    line = 2.5
-                    if "1.5" in pick: line = 1.5
-                    elif "3.5" in pick: line = 3.5
-                    if (h_score + a_score) < line: won = True
-                elif "VAR" in pick and h_score > 0 and a_score > 0: won = True
-                elif "YOK" in pick and (h_score == 0 or a_score == 0): won = True
-
-                total_bet += 1
-                if won:
-                    total_won += 1
-                    profit = odds - 1.0
-                    total_profit += profit
-                    # print(f"✅ WON (+{profit:.2f}) | {pick}")
-                else:
-                    total_profit -= 1.0
-                    # print(f"❌ LOST ({pick} @ {odds:.2f})")
-            else:
-                skipped_count += 1
-                # print(f"🚫 SKIP (No Value)")
-
-        except Exception as e:
-            # print(f"💥 Error: {e}")
-            pass
-
-    print("\n" + "="*60)
-    print("🔄 ADAPTIVE BACKTEST RESULTS (500 Matches)")
-    print("="*60)
-    print(f"📊 Evaluated: {total_evaluated}")
-    print(f"🎲 Played: {total_bet}")
-    print(f"🚫 Skipped: {skipped_count}")
-    print(f"✅ Won: {total_won}")
-    
-    if total_bet > 0:
-        win_rate = (total_won / total_bet) * 100
-        roi = (total_profit / total_bet) * 100
-        print(f"📈 Win Rate: {win_rate:.2f}%")
-        print(f"💰 Total Profit: {total_profit:.2f} Units")
-        print(f"📊 ROI: {roi:.2f}%")
-        if total_profit > 0: print("🟢 KARLI STRATEJİ")
-        else: print("🔴 ZARARDA")
-    else:
-        print("⚠️ Hiç bahis oynanmadı. Veri kalitesi çok düşük.")
-
-    cur.close()
-    conn.close()
-
-if __name__ == "__main__":
-    run_adaptive_backtest()
@@ -0,0 +1,146 @@
+import os
+import sys
+import psycopg2
+from psycopg2.extras import RealDictCursor
+
+# Path ayarları
+sys.path.insert(0, os.path.dirname(os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__))))
+
+from services.single_match_orchestrator import SingleMatchOrchestrator
+from services.feature_enrichment import FeatureEnrichmentService
+
+DSN = "postgresql://suggestbet:SuGGesT2026SecuRe@localhost:15432/boilerplate_db"
+
+def run_backtest(target_date="2026-05-03"):
+    conn = psycopg2.connect(DSN)
+    cur = conn.cursor(cursor_factory=RealDictCursor)
+    
+    # 1. Hedef tarihteki bitmiş maçları ve takım isimlerini getir
+    cur.execute("""
+        SELECT m.id, m.score_home, m.score_away, m.mst_utc,
+               t1.name as home_name, t2.name as away_name
+        FROM matches m
+        LEFT JOIN teams t1 ON m.home_team_id = t1.id
+        LEFT JOIN teams t2 ON m.away_team_id = t2.id
+        WHERE m.status IN ('FT', 'AET', 'PEN') 
+          AND to_timestamp(m.mst_utc / 1000.0)::date = %s::date
+          AND m.score_home IS NOT NULL
+        ORDER BY m.mst_utc ASC
+    """, (target_date,))
+    matches = cur.fetchall()
+    
+    if not matches:
+        print(f"❌ {target_date} tarihinde bitmiş maç bulunamadı.")
+        return
+
+    print(f"🚀 {target_date} için Orkestratör Backtesti Başlatılıyor... ({len(matches)} maç bulundu)")
+    print("-" * 60)
+    
+    orchestrator = SingleMatchOrchestrator()
+    
+    bets_placed = 0
+    won = 0
+    lost = 0
+    total_odds_won = 0.0
+    
+    for match in matches:
+        # 3. Üst Akıl (Orkestratör) analizi yapar
+        try:
+            package = orchestrator.analyze_match(match['id'])
+        except Exception as e:
+            print(f"Hata ({match['id']}): {e}")
+            continue
+            
+        if not package:
+            continue
+            
+        package_data = package
+        
+        # 4. Üst akıl bu maça bahis yapmaya karar verdi mi?
+        bet_advice = package_data.get("bet_advice", {})
+        if bet_advice.get("playable") == True:
+            bets_placed += 1
+            main_pick = package_data.get("main_pick", {})
+            market = main_pick.get("market")
+            pick = main_pick.get("pick")
+            odds = float(main_pick.get("odds", 0.0) or 0.0)
+            
+            # Skora göre kazanıp kazanmadığını kontrol et
+            is_won = False
+            h = match['score_home']
+            a = match['score_away']
+            
+            if market == "MS":
+                if pick == "1" and h > a: is_won = True
+                elif pick in ("X", "0") and h == a: is_won = True
+                elif pick == "2" and a > h: is_won = True
+            elif market == "OU25":
+                if pick == "Üst" and (h+a) > 2.5: is_won = True
+                elif pick == "Alt" and (h+a) < 2.5: is_won = True
+            elif market == "OU15":
+                if pick == "Üst" and (h+a) > 1.5: is_won = True
+                elif pick == "Alt" and (h+a) < 1.5: is_won = True
+            elif market == "BTTS":
+                if pick == "KG Var" and h > 0 and a > 0: is_won = True
+                elif pick == "KG Yok" and (h == 0 or a == 0): is_won = True
+            elif market == "DC":
+                if pick == "1X" and h >= a: is_won = True
+                elif pick == "12" and h != a: is_won = True
+                elif pick == "X2" and h <= a: is_won = True
+            
+            if is_won:
+                won += 1
+                total_odds_won += odds
+                res = "✅ KAZANDI"
+            else:
+                lost += 1
+                res = "❌ KAYBETTİ"
+                
+            print(f"[{res}] {match['home_name']} {h}-{a} {match['away_name']} | Tahmin: {market} {pick} (Oran: {odds})")
+        else:
+            main_pick = package_data.get("main_pick", {})
+            reasons = main_pick.get("reasons", ["Bilinmeyen Neden"]) if main_pick else ["No main pick"]
+            reason = " | ".join(reasons) if isinstance(reasons, list) else str(reasons)
+            
+            market_board = package_data.get("market_board", {})
+            main_pick_market = main_pick.get('market', 'N/A') if main_pick else 'N/A'
+            main_pick_pick = main_pick.get('pick', 'N/A') if main_pick else 'N/A'
+            print(f"[PAS] {match['home_name']} {match['score_home']}-{match['score_away']} {match['away_name']} | Reddedilen: {main_pick_market} {main_pick_pick} -> Neden: {reason}")
+            if "market_passed_all_gates" in reason:
+                print(f"      DEBUG: bet_advice = {bet_advice}")
+            
+            v25_ms = market_board.get("MS", {}).get("probs", {})
+            v27_ms = {} # V27 is merged into V25 probabilities in market_board, or we don't have separate V27 access here
+            
+            # Skora göre ms kontrolü
+            h = match['score_home']
+            a = match['score_away']
+            actual_ms = "1" if h > a else ("X" if h == a else "2")
+            
+            v25_top = max(v25_ms, key=v25_ms.get) if v25_ms else "N/A"
+            v27_top = "N/A"
+            
+            rejected_market = main_pick.get("market", "N/A") if main_pick else "N/A"
+            rejected_pick = main_pick.get("pick", "N/A") if main_pick else "N/A"
+            
+            print(f"[PAS] {match['home_name']} {h}-{a} {match['away_name']} | Reddedilen: {rejected_market} {rejected_pick} -> Neden: {reason}")
+            print(f"      [V25 MS Raw: {v25_top}] [Gerçek MS: {actual_ms}]")
+            
+    # Sonuç Raporu
+    print("\n" + "=" * 60)
+    print(f"📊 BACKTEST SONUÇLARI ({target_date})")
+    print("=" * 60)
+    print(f"Toplam Maç Sayısı   : {len(matches)}")
+    print(f"Oynanan Bahis Sayısı: {bets_placed} (Oynama Oranı: %{bets_placed/len(matches)*100:.1f})")
+    print(f"Riskli Bulunup Pas Geçilen: {len(matches) - bets_placed}")
+    
+    if bets_placed > 0:
+        win_rate = won / bets_placed * 100
+        roi = ((total_odds_won - bets_placed) / bets_placed) * 100
+        print(f"Kazanılan           : {won}")
+        print(f"Kaybedilen          : {lost}")
+        print(f"İsabet Oranı        : %{win_rate:.1f}")
+        print(f"Net Kar (ROI)       : %{roi:.1f} {'📈' if roi > 0 else '📉'}")
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    run_backtest("2026-05-03")
@@ -1,145 +0,0 @@
-"""
-Diagnostic Backtest - Hangi Pazar Kanıyor?
-===========================================
-Analyses the 500 matches to see WHICH markets are losing money.
-"""
-
-import os
-import sys
-import json
-import time
-import psycopg2
-from psycopg2.extras import RealDictCursor
-from collections import defaultdict
-
-AI_DIR = os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__))
-ROOT_DIR = os.path.dirname(AI_DIR)
-sys.path.insert(0, ROOT_DIR)
-if "scripts" in os.path.basename(AI_DIR):
-    ROOT_DIR = os.path.dirname(ROOT_DIR)
-
-from services.single_match_orchestrator import get_single_match_orchestrator
-
-def get_clean_dsn() -> str:
-    return "postgresql://suggestbet:SuGGesT2026SecuRe@localhost:15432/boilerplate_db"
-
-def run_diagnostic():
-    print("🔍 TANI BACKTESTİ: NEREDE KAYBETTİK?")
-    print("="*60)
-    
-    leagues_path = os.path.join(ROOT_DIR, "top_leagues.json")
-    with open(leagues_path, 'r') as f:
-        top_leagues = json.load(f)
-    league_ids = tuple(str(lid) for lid in top_leagues)
-
-    dsn = get_clean_dsn()
-    conn = psycopg2.connect(dsn)
-    cur = conn.cursor(cursor_factory=RealDictCursor)
-
-    cur.execute("""
-        SELECT m.id, m.match_name, m.home_team_id, m.away_team_id,
-               m.score_home, m.score_away, m.league_id,
-               t1.name as home_team, t2.name as away_team
-        FROM matches m
-        LEFT JOIN teams t1 ON m.home_team_id = t1.id
-        LEFT JOIN teams t2 ON m.away_team_id = t2.id
-        WHERE m.league_id IN %s
-          AND m.status = 'FT'
-          AND m.score_home IS NOT NULL
-          AND EXISTS (SELECT 1 FROM odd_categories oc WHERE oc.match_id = m.id)
-        ORDER BY m.mst_utc DESC
-        LIMIT 500
-    """, (league_ids,))
-    
-    rows = cur.fetchall()
-    print(f"📊 {len(rows)} maç analiz ediliyor...\n")
-
-    try: orchestrator = get_single_match_orchestrator()
-    except Exception as e:
-        print(f"❌ AI Hatası: {e}")
-        return
-
-    # Market Stats: { "MS": {"won": 10, "lost": 20, "profit": -5.0}, ... }
-    market_stats = defaultdict(lambda: {"won": 0, "lost": 0, "profit": 0.0, "total": 0})
-    
-    for i, row in enumerate(rows):
-        match_id = str(row['id'])
-        h_score = row['score_home'] or 0
-        a_score = row['score_away'] or 0
-
-        try:
-            pred = orchestrator.analyze_match(match_id)
-            if not pred: continue
-
-            candidates = []
-            if pred.get("expert_recommendation"):
-                rec = pred["expert_recommendation"]
-                if rec.get("main_pick"): candidates.append(rec["main_pick"])
-                if rec.get("value_picks"): candidates.extend(rec["value_picks"])
-            elif pred.get("main_pick"):
-                candidates.append(pred["main_pick"])
-
-            played_this = False
-            for c in candidates:
-                if not c: continue
-                conf = c.get("confidence", 0)
-                odds = c.get("odds", 0)
-                pick = str(c.get("pick")).upper()
-                market_type = c.get("market_type", "Unknown")
-
-                # Criteria
-                if conf >= 60 and odds > 1.10:
-                    implied = 1.0 / odds
-                    edge = ((conf/100) - implied) * 100
-                    if edge > -2.0:
-                        # Resolve
-                        won = False
-                        if pick in ["1", "MS 1"] and h_score > a_score: won = True
-                        elif pick in ["X", "MS X"] and h_score == a_score: won = True
-                        elif pick in ["2", "MS 2"] and a_score > h_score: won = True
-                        elif pick in ["1X", "X2"]:
-                            if "1X" in pick and h_score >= a_score: won = True
-                            elif "X2" in pick and a_score >= h_score: won = True
-                        elif pick == "12" and h_score != a_score: won = True
-                        elif "ÜST" in pick or "OVER" in pick:
-                            line = 2.5
-                            if "1.5" in pick: line = 1.5
-                            elif "3.5" in pick: line = 3.5
-                            if (h_score + a_score) > line: won = True
-                        elif "ALT" in pick or "UNDER" in pick:
-                            line = 2.5
-                            if "1.5" in pick: line = 1.5
-                            elif "3.5" in pick: line = 3.5
-                            if (h_score + a_score) < line: won = True
-                        elif "VAR" in pick and h_score > 0 and a_score > 0: won = True
-                        elif "YOK" in pick and (h_score == 0 or a_score == 0): won = True
-
-                        market_stats[market_type]["total"] += 1
-                        if won:
-                            market_stats[market_type]["won"] += 1
-                            market_stats[market_type]["profit"] += (odds - 1.0)
-                        else:
-                            market_stats[market_type]["lost"] += 1
-                            market_stats[market_type]["profit"] -= 1.0
-                        
-                        played_this = True
-                        break # Only one bet per match
-
-        except: pass
-
-    # Print Results
-    print("\n" + "="*60)
-    print("📊 PAZAR BAZLI KAR/ZARAR TABLOSU")
-    print("="*60)
-    print(f"{'Market':<15} {'Oynanan':<10} {'Kazanılan':<10} {'Win%':<8} {'Kâr':<10}")
-    print("-" * 60)
-
-    for mkt, stats in sorted(market_stats.items(), key=lambda x: x[1]["profit"], reverse=True):
-        wr = (stats["won"] / stats["total"] * 100) if stats["total"] > 0 else 0
-        print(f"{mkt:<15} {stats['total']:<10} {stats['won']:<10} {wr:.1f}%   {stats['profit']:+.2f} Units")
-
-    cur.close()
-    conn.close()
-
-if __name__ == "__main__":
-    run_diagnostic()
@@ -1,215 +0,0 @@
-"""
-V27 FINAL BACKTEST — Conservative Flat Bet
-Only the strongest validated edges. No Kelly compounding.
-"""
-import pandas as pd, numpy as np
-
-df = pd.read_csv('data/training_data_v27.csv', low_memory=False)
-for c in df.columns:
-    if c not in ['match_id','league_name','home_team','away_team']:
-        df[c] = pd.to_numeric(df[c], errors='coerce')
-df = df.dropna(subset=['odds_ms_h','odds_ms_d','odds_ms_a'])
-df = df[(df.odds_ms_h>1.01)&(df.odds_ms_d>1.01)&(df.odds_ms_a>1.01)]
-
-n = len(df)
-# 5-fold walk-forward: train on 60%, validate patterns, test on remaining
-folds = 5
-fold_size = n // folds
-all_results = []
-
-print("="*65)
-print("  V27 WALK-FORWARD FLAT-BET BACKTEST")
-print("="*65)
-
-for fold in range(2, folds):  # start from fold 2 so we have enough training data
-    train_end = fold * fold_size
-    test_start = train_end
-    test_end = (fold+1)*fold_size if fold < folds-1 else n
-
-    train_df = df.iloc[:train_end]
-    test_df = df.iloc[test_start:test_end]
-
-    print(f"\n  --- Fold {fold}: train={len(train_df)}, test={len(test_df)} ---")
-
-    # Discover REST edges from training data
-    strategies = []
-
-    for hr in [5, 7, 10, 14]:
-        for ar in [3, 4, 5]:
-            for cls, col in [(0,'odds_ms_h'), (2,'odds_ms_a')]:
-                idx = (train_df.home_days_rest > hr) & (train_df.away_days_rest < ar)
-                sub = train_df[idx]
-                if len(sub) < 50:
-                    continue
-                rate = (sub.label_ms == cls).mean()
-                avg_odds = sub[col].mean()
-                ev = rate * avg_odds
-                if ev > 1.02:  # only strong edges (>2% edge)
-                    strategies.append((hr, ar, cls, rate, avg_odds, ev, len(sub)))
-
-    if not strategies:
-        print("    No strong edges found in training data")
-        continue
-
-    # Apply best strategies to test
-    strategies.sort(key=lambda x: x[5], reverse=True)
-    best = strategies[:3]  # top 3 only
-
-    fold_bets = 0
-    fold_wins = 0
-    fold_pnl = 0
-    stake = 10  # flat 10 units
-
-    for _, row in test_df.iterrows():
-        for hr, ar, cls, est_p, _, _, _ in best:
-            if pd.isna(row.home_days_rest) or pd.isna(row.away_days_rest):
-                continue
-            if row.home_days_rest <= hr or row.away_days_rest >= ar:
-                continue
-            odds_col = ['odds_ms_h','odds_ms_d','odds_ms_a'][cls]
-            odds_val = row[odds_col]
-            if pd.isna(odds_val) or odds_val < 1.50 or odds_val > 5.0:
-                continue
-            # Additional filter: only bet when odds give reasonable EV
-            if est_p * odds_val < 1.0:
-                continue
-
-            won = (row.label_ms == cls)
-            pnl = stake * (odds_val - 1) if won else -stake
-            fold_bets += 1
-            if won:
-                fold_wins += 1
-            fold_pnl += pnl
-            all_results.append({'fold': fold, 'won': won, 'pnl': pnl,
-                                'odds': odds_val, 'stake': stake,
-                                'cls': ['H','D','A'][cls]})
-
-    if fold_bets > 0:
-        roi = fold_pnl / (fold_bets * stake) * 100
-        print(f"    Best strategies: {[(h,a,['H','D','A'][c],f'EV={e:.3f}') for h,a,c,_,_,e,_ in best]}")
-        print(f"    Bets: {fold_bets}, Wins: {fold_wins} ({fold_wins/fold_bets*100:.1f}%), "
-              f"ROI: {roi:+.1f}%, PnL: {fold_pnl:+.0f}")
-
-# Overall
-print("\n" + "="*65)
-print("  OVERALL RESULTS")
-print("="*65)
-if all_results:
-    total = len(all_results)
-    wins = sum(1 for r in all_results if r['won'])
-    total_pnl = sum(r['pnl'] for r in all_results)
-    total_staked = sum(r['stake'] for r in all_results)
-    roi = total_pnl / total_staked * 100
-
-    print(f"  Total bets:   {total}")
-    print(f"  Wins:         {wins} ({wins/total*100:.1f}%)")
-    print(f"  Total staked: {total_staked:.0f}")
-    print(f"  PnL:          {total_pnl:+.0f}")
-    print(f"  ROI:          {roi:+.1f}%")
-    print(f"  Avg odds:     {np.mean([r['odds'] for r in all_results]):.2f}")
-
-    # By class
-    print("\n  --- By Bet Type ---")
-    for cls in ['H','A']:
-        cb = [r for r in all_results if r['cls'] == cls]
-        if cb:
-            cw = sum(1 for r in cb if r['won'])
-            cp = sum(r['pnl'] for r in cb)
-            cs = sum(r['stake'] for r in cb)
-            print(f"    {cls}: {len(cb)} bets, hit={cw/len(cb)*100:.1f}%, ROI={cp/cs*100:+.1f}%")
-
-    # Cumulative PnL curve
-    print("\n  --- Cumulative PnL ---")
-    cum = 0
-    step = max(1, total // 15)
-    for j in range(0, total, step):
-        cum = sum(r['pnl'] for r in all_results[:j+1])
-        print(f"    After bet {j+1:4d}: PnL={cum:+.0f}")
-    cum = sum(r['pnl'] for r in all_results)
-    print(f"    After bet {total:4d}: PnL={cum:+.0f} (FINAL)")
-else:
-    print("  No bets placed!")
-
-# ── Now combine with MODEL for smarter filtering ──
-print("\n" + "="*65)
-print("  COMBINED: Rest Rules + Fundamentals Model")
-print("="*65)
-
-import pickle, json
-from pathlib import Path
-MODELS_DIR = Path("models/v27")
-
-feat_cols = json.load(open(MODELS_DIR / "v27_feature_cols.json"))
-ms_models = {}
-for name in ['xgb','lgb','cb']:
-    p = MODELS_DIR / f"v27_ms_{name}.pkl"
-    if p.exists():
-        with open(p,'rb') as f:
-            ms_models[name] = pickle.load(f)
-
-if ms_models:
-    test_df = df.iloc[int(n*0.8):].copy()
-    X_test = test_df[feat_cols].values
-
-    # Get model predictions
-    preds = []
-    for name, m in ms_models.items():
-        if name == 'xgb':
-            import xgboost as xgb
-            dm = xgb.DMatrix(X_test, feature_names=feat_cols)
-            preds.append(m.predict(dm))
-        elif name == 'lgb':
-            preds.append(m.predict(X_test))
-        elif name == 'cb':
-            preds.append(m.predict_proba(X_test))
-    model_probs = np.mean(preds, axis=0)  # (n, 3)
-
-    # Now apply rest rules + model agreement
-    margin = 1/test_df.odds_ms_h.values + 1/test_df.odds_ms_d.values + 1/test_df.odds_ms_a.values
-    impl = np.column_stack([
-        (1/test_df.odds_ms_h.values)/margin,
-        (1/test_df.odds_ms_d.values)/margin,
-        (1/test_df.odds_ms_a.values)/margin,
-    ])
-
-    combo_bets = 0
-    combo_wins = 0
-    combo_pnl = 0
-
-    for j in range(len(test_df)):
-        row = test_df.iloc[j]
-        for hr, ar in [(14,5),(10,5),(7,5),(5,5)]:
-            if pd.isna(row.home_days_rest) or pd.isna(row.away_days_rest):
-                continue
-            if row.home_days_rest <= hr or row.away_days_rest >= ar:
-                continue
-            for cls in [0, 2]:
-                odds_val = [row.odds_ms_h, row.odds_ms_d, row.odds_ms_a][cls]
-                if pd.isna(odds_val) or odds_val < 1.50 or odds_val > 5.0:
-                    continue
-
-                model_p = model_probs[j, cls]
-                impl_p = impl[j, cls]
-
-                # DOUBLE FILTER: rest rule + model agrees (model_prob > implied)
-                if model_p <= impl_p:
-                    continue  # model disagrees, skip
-                edge = model_p - impl_p
-                if edge < 0.03:
-                    continue  # too small
-
-                won = (row.label_ms == cls)
-                pnl = 10 * (odds_val - 1) if won else -10
-                combo_bets += 1
-                if won:
-                    combo_wins += 1
-                combo_pnl += pnl
-
-    if combo_bets > 0:
-        roi = combo_pnl / (combo_bets * 10) * 100
-        print(f"  Bets:   {combo_bets}")
-        print(f"  Wins:   {combo_wins} ({combo_wins/combo_bets*100:.1f}%)")
-        print(f"  PnL:    {combo_pnl:+.0f}")
-        print(f"  ROI:    {roi:+.1f}%")
-    else:
-        print("  No combined bets triggered")
@@ -1,223 +0,0 @@
-"""
-Real AI Engine Backtest Script
-==============================
-Uses the ACTUAL models (V20/V25 Ensemble) to predict historical matches.
-
-Usage:
-    python ai-engine/scripts/backtest_real.py
-"""
-
-import os
-import sys
-import json
-import time
-import psycopg2
-from psycopg2.extras import RealDictCursor
-from datetime import datetime
-
-# Add paths
-AI_DIR = os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__))
-ROOT_DIR = os.path.dirname(AI_DIR)
-sys.path.insert(0, ROOT_DIR)
-
-# Fix for Windows path issues in scripts
-if "scripts" in os.path.basename(AI_DIR):
-    ROOT_DIR = os.path.dirname(ROOT_DIR) # One level up if inside scripts folder
-
-from services.single_match_orchestrator import get_single_match_orchestrator, MatchData
-
-def get_clean_dsn() -> str:
-    return "postgresql://suggestbet:SuGGesT2026SecuRe@localhost:15432/boilerplate_db"
-
-def run_backtest():
-    print("🚀 REAL AI BACKTEST: Sept 13, 2024 - Top Leagues")
-    print("🧠 Engine: V30 Ensemble (V20+V25)")
-    print("="*60)
-
-    # Load Top Leagues
-    leagues_path = os.path.join(ROOT_DIR, "top_leagues.json")
-    try:
-        with open(leagues_path, 'r') as f:
-            top_leagues = json.load(f)
-        league_ids = tuple(str(lid) for lid in top_leagues)
-        print(f"📋 Loaded {len(top_leagues)} top leagues.")
-    except Exception as e:
-        print(f"❌ Error loading top_leagues.json: {e}")
-        return
-
-    # Date Range (Sept 13, 2024)
-    start_dt = datetime(2024, 9, 13, 0, 0, 0)
-    end_dt = datetime(2024, 9, 13, 23, 59, 59)
-    start_ts = int(start_dt.timestamp() * 1000)
-    end_ts = int(end_dt.timestamp() * 1000)
-
-    dsn = get_clean_dsn()
-    conn = psycopg2.connect(dsn)
-    cur = conn.cursor(cursor_factory=RealDictCursor)
-
-    # Fetch Matches
-    cur.execute("""
-        SELECT m.id, m.match_name, m.home_team_id, m.away_team_id, 
-               m.mst_utc, m.league_id, m.status, m.score_home, m.score_away,
-               t1.name as home_team, t2.name as away_team,
-               l.name as league_name
-        FROM matches m
-        LEFT JOIN teams t1 ON m.home_team_id = t1.id
-        LEFT JOIN teams t2 ON m.away_team_id = t2.id
-        LEFT JOIN leagues l ON m.league_id = l.id
-        WHERE m.mst_utc BETWEEN %s AND %s
-          AND m.league_id IN %s
-          AND m.status = 'FT'
-        ORDER BY m.mst_utc ASC
-        LIMIT 20  -- Limit to 20 matches to avoid running for hours on a single backtest
-    """, (start_ts, end_ts, league_ids))
-    
-    rows = cur.fetchall()
-    print(f"📊 Found {len(rows)} finished matches. Starting AI Analysis...")
-
-    if not rows:
-        print("⚠️ No matches found for this date.")
-        cur.close()
-        conn.close()
-        return
-
-    # Initialize AI Engine
-    try:
-        orchestrator = get_single_match_orchestrator()
-        print("✅ AI Engine (SingleMatchOrchestrator) Loaded.")
-    except Exception as e:
-        print(f"❌ Failed to load AI Engine: {e}")
-        print("💡 Make sure models are trained/present in ai-engine/models/")
-        cur.close()
-        conn.close()
-        return
-
-    # ─── Backtest Loop ───
-    total_matches_analyzed = 0
-    bets_skipped = 0
-    bets_played = 0
-    bets_won = 0
-    total_profit = 0.0
-    
-    # Thresholds matching the NEW Skip Logic
-    MIN_CONF = 45.0 
-
-    start_time = time.time()
-
-    for i, row in enumerate(rows):
-        match_id = str(row['id'])
-        home_team = row['home_team']
-        away_team = row['away_team']
-        home_score = row['score_home']
-        away_score = row['score_away']
-        
-        print(f"\n[{i+1}/{len(rows)}] Analyzing: {home_team} vs {away_team} ...")
-
-        try:
-            # 1. AI PREDICTION (Actual Model Call)
-            prediction = orchestrator.analyze_match(match_id)
-            
-            if not prediction:
-                print(f"   ⚠️ AI returned no prediction.")
-                continue
-
-            total_matches_analyzed += 1
-            
-            # 2. Extract Main Pick
-            main_pick = prediction.get("main_pick") or {}
-            pick_name = main_pick.get("pick")
-            confidence = main_pick.get("confidence", 0)
-            odds = main_pick.get("odds", 0)
-
-            if not pick_name or not confidence:
-                print(f"   ⚠️ No main pick found in prediction.")
-                continue
-
-            print(f"   🤖 Pick: {pick_name} | Conf: {confidence}% | Odds: {odds}")
-
-            # 3. Apply Skip Logic (New Backtest Logic)
-            if confidence < MIN_CONF:
-                print(f"   🚫 SKIPPED (Confidence {confidence}% < {MIN_CONF}%)")
-                bets_skipped += 1
-                continue
-
-            if odds > 0:
-                implied_prob = 1.0 / odds
-                my_prob = confidence / 100.0
-                if my_prob - implied_prob < -0.03: # Negative edge
-                    print(f"   🚫 SKIPPED (Negative Edge)")
-                    bets_skipped += 1
-                    continue
-
-            # 4. Bet Played
-            bets_played += 1
-            print(f"   🎲 BET PLAYED: {pick_name} @ {odds}")
-
-            # 5. Resolve Bet
-            won = False
-            # Basic resolution logic (Need to parse pick_name like "1", "X", "2", "2.5 Üst", etc.)
-            pick_clean = str(pick_name).upper()
-            
-            # MS
-            if pick_clean in ["1", "MS 1"] and home_score > away_score: won = True
-            elif pick_clean in ["X", "MS X"] and home_score == away_score: won = True
-            elif pick_clean in ["2", "MS 2"] and away_score > home_score: won = True
-            
-            # OU25
-            elif "ÜST" in pick_clean or "OVER" in pick_clean:
-                if (home_score + away_score) > 2.5: won = True
-            elif "ALT" in pick_clean or "UNDER" in pick_clean:
-                if (home_score + away_score) < 2.5: won = True
-            
-            # BTTS
-            elif "VAR" in pick_clean and home_score > 0 and away_score > 0: won = True
-            elif "YOK" in pick_clean and (home_score == 0 or away_score == 0): won = True
-
-            if won:
-                bets_won += 1
-                profit = odds - 1.0
-                print(f"   ✅ WON! (+{profit:.2f} units)")
-            else:
-                profit = -1.0
-                print(f"   ❌ LOST! (-1.00 units)")
-            
-            total_profit += profit
-
-        except Exception as e:
-            print(f"   💥 Error during analysis: {e}")
-
-    elapsed = time.time() - start_time
-
-    # ─── FINAL REPORT ───
-    print("\n" + "="*60)
-    print("📈 REAL AI BACKTEST RESULTS")
-    print(f"🕒 Time taken: {elapsed:.1f} seconds")
-    print("="*60)
-    print(f"📊 Matches Analyzed: {total_matches_analyzed}")
-    print(f"🚫 Bets SKIPPED: {bets_skipped}")
-    print(f"✅ Bets PLAYED: {bets_played}")
-    
-    if bets_played > 0:
-        win_rate = (bets_won / bets_played) * 100
-        roi = (total_profit / bets_played) * 100
-        yield_val = total_profit  # Net Units
-        
-        print(f"🏆 Bets Won: {bets_won}")
-        print(f"💀 Bets Lost: {bets_played - bets_won}")
-        print("-" * 40)
-        print(f" Win Rate: {win_rate:.2f}%")
-        print(f"💰 Total Profit (Units): {total_profit:.2f}")
-        print(f"📊 ROI: {roi:.2f}%")
-        
-        if roi > 0:
-            print("🟢 STRATEGY IS PROFITABLE!")
-        else:
-            print("🔴 STRATEGY IS LOSING")
-    else:
-        print("⚠️ No bets were played. All were skipped or failed.")
-
-    cur.close()
-    conn.close()
-
-if __name__ == "__main__":
-    run_backtest()
@@ -1,231 +0,0 @@
-"""
-Backtest ROI Engine
-===================
-Simulates the NEW "Skip Logic" on historical predictions.
-Answers: "What if we only played the bets the model was confident about?"
-
-Usage:
-    python ai-engine/scripts/backtest_roi.py
-"""
-
-import os
-import sys
-import json
-import psycopg2
-from psycopg2.extras import RealDictCursor
-from typing import Dict, List, Any
-from dotenv import load_dotenv
-
-# Load .env from project root (2 levels up from this script)
-project_root = os.path.dirname(os.path.dirname(os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__))))
-load_dotenv(os.path.join(project_root, ".env"))
-
-def get_clean_dsn() -> str:
-    """Return a psycopg2-compatible DSN from DATABASE_URL."""
-    # HARDCODED FOR BACKTEST (Bypassing dotenv issues)
-    return "postgresql://suggestbet:SuGGesT2026SecuRe@localhost:15432/boilerplate_db"
-
-# ─── Configuration (Matching the NEW BetRecommender Logic) ─────────
-# Minimum confidence to even consider a bet (Hard Gate)
-MIN_CONF_THRESHOLDS = {
-    "MS": 45.0,
-    "DC": 40.0,
-    "OU15": 50.0,
-    "OU25": 45.0,
-    "OU35": 45.0,
-    "BTTS": 45.0,
-    "HT": 40.0,
-}
-
-def get_market_type_from_key(key: str) -> str:
-    """Map prediction keys to market types for thresholding."""
-    if key.startswith("ms_") or key in ["1", "X", "2"]: return "MS"
-    if key.startswith("dc_") or key in ["1X", "X2", "12"]: return "DC"
-    if key.startswith("ou15_") or key.startswith("1.5"): return "OU15"
-    if key.startswith("ou25_") or key.startswith("2.5"): return "OU25"
-    if key.startswith("ou35_") or key.startswith("3.5"): return "OU35"
-    if key.startswith("btts_") or key in ["Var", "Yok"]: return "BTTS"
-    if key.startswith("ht_") or key.startswith("İY"): return "HT"
-    return "MS"
-
-def simulate_backtest():
-    print("🚀 Starting Backtest with NEW 'Skip Logic'...")
-    print("="*60)
-
-    dsn = get_clean_dsn()
-    conn = psycopg2.connect(dsn)
-    cur = conn.cursor(cursor_factory=RealDictCursor)
-
-    # 1. Fetch PREDICTIONS that have a confidence score
-    # We limit to last 1000 finished matches to keep it fast but representative
-    cur.execute("""
-        SELECT p.match_id, p.prediction_json,
-               m.score_home, m.score_away, m.status
-        FROM predictions p
-        JOIN matches m ON p.match_id = m.id
-        WHERE m.status = 'FT'
-        AND p.prediction_json IS NOT NULL
-        ORDER BY m.mst_utc DESC
-        LIMIT 2000
-    """)
-    predictions = cur.fetchall()
-
-    print(f"📊 Loaded {len(predictions)} historical predictions.")
-
-    total_bets = 0
-    winning_bets = 0
-    skipped_bets = 0
-    total_profit = 0.0  # Assuming unit stake of 1.0
-
-    # 2. Process each prediction
-    for pred_row in predictions:
-        match_id = pred_row['match_id']
-        data = pred_row['prediction_json']
-        if isinstance(data, str):
-            data = json.loads(data)
-
-        # Real result
-        home_score = pred_row['score_home'] or 0
-        away_score = pred_row['score_away'] or 0
-        total_goals = home_score + away_score
-
-        # Extract prediction details from the JSON structure
-        # The structure varies, but usually contains 'main_pick', 'bet_summary', or 'market_board'
-        
-        # Try to get the main pick recommendation
-        main_pick = None
-        main_pick_conf = 0.0
-        main_pick_odds = 0.0
-        
-        # Navigate the V20+ JSON structure
-        market_board = data.get("market_board", {})
-        
-        # Check Main Pick
-        if "main_pick" in data:
-            mp = data["main_pick"]
-            if isinstance(mp, dict):
-                main_pick = mp.get("pick")
-                main_pick_conf = mp.get("confidence", 0.0)
-                main_pick_odds = mp.get("odds", 0.0)
-        
-        # If no main pick, try bet_summary
-        if not main_pick and "bet_summary" in data:
-            summary = data["bet_summary"]
-            if isinstance(summary, list) and len(summary) > 0:
-                # Take the highest confidence one
-                best = max(summary, key=lambda x: x.get("confidence", 0))
-                main_pick = best.get("pick")
-                main_pick_conf = best.get("confidence", 0.0)
-                main_pick_odds = best.get("odds", 0.0)
-
-        if not main_pick or not main_pick_conf:
-            continue
-
-        # ─── NEW LOGIC: APPLY FILTERS ───
-        # 1. Determine Market Type
-        # Simple heuristic based on pick string
-        pick_str = str(main_pick).upper()
-        market_type = "MS"
-        if "1X" in pick_str or "X2" in pick_str or "12" in pick_str: market_type = "DC"
-        elif "ÜST" in pick_str or "ALT" in pick_str or "OVER" in pick_str or "UNDER" in pick_str:
-            if "1.5" in pick_str: market_type = "OU15"
-            elif "3.5" in pick_str: market_type = "OU35"
-            else: market_type = "OU25"
-        elif "VAR" in pick_str or "YOK" in pick_str or "BTTS" in pick_str: market_type = "BTTS"
-        
-        threshold = MIN_CONF_THRESHOLDS.get(market_type, 45.0)
-
-        # 2. Check Confidence Gate
-        if main_pick_conf < threshold:
-            skipped_bets += 1
-            continue
-
-        # 3. Check Value Gate (Edge)
-        if main_pick_odds > 0:
-            implied_prob = 1.0 / main_pick_odds
-            my_prob = main_pick_conf / 100.0
-            edge = my_prob - implied_prob
-            if edge < -0.03: # Negative value
-                skipped_bets += 1
-                continue
-
-        # ─── BET IS PLAYED ───
-        total_bets += 1
-        
-        # Determine if WON
-        is_won = False
-        
-        # Resolve MS (1, X, 2)
-        if market_type == "MS":
-            if main_pick == "1" and home_score > away_score: is_won = True
-            elif main_pick == "X" and home_score == away_score: is_won = True
-            elif main_pick == "2" and away_score > home_score: is_won = True
-            elif main_pick == "MS 1" and home_score > away_score: is_won = True
-            elif main_pick == "MS X" and home_score == away_score: is_won = True
-            elif main_pick == "MS 2" and away_score > home_score: is_won = True
-            
-        # Resolve OU (Over/Under)
-        elif market_type.startswith("OU"):
-            line = 2.5
-            if "1.5" in pick_str: line = 1.5
-            elif "3.5" in pick_str: line = 3.5
-            
-            is_over = total_goals > line
-            is_under = total_goals < line # Simplification (usually line is X.5 so no draw)
-            
-            if "ÜST" in pick_str or "OVER" in pick_str:
-                if is_over: is_won = True
-            elif "ALT" in pick_str or "UNDER" in pick_str:
-                if is_under: is_won = True
-
-        # Resolve BTTS
-        elif market_type == "BTTS":
-            if home_score > 0 and away_score > 0:
-                if "VAR" in pick_str: is_won = True
-            else:
-                if "YOK" in pick_str: is_won = True
-        
-        # Resolve DC (Double Chance) - Simplified
-        elif market_type == "DC":
-            if "1X" in pick_str and (home_score >= away_score): is_won = True
-            elif "X2" in pick_str and (away_score >= home_score): is_won = True
-            elif "12" in pick_str and (home_score != away_score): is_won = True
-
-        if is_won:
-            winning_bets += 1
-            profit = main_pick_odds - 1.0
-            total_profit += profit
-        else:
-            total_profit -= 1.0
-
-    # ─── REPORT ───
-    print("\n" + "="*60)
-    print("📈 BACKTEST RESULTS (With NEW Skip Logic)")
-    print("="*60)
-    print(f"Total Historical Matches Analyzed: {len(predictions)}")
-    print(f"🚫 Bets SKIPPED (Low Conf/Bad Value): {skipped_bets}")
-    print(f"✅ Bets PLAYED: {total_bets}")
-    
-    if total_bets > 0:
-        win_rate = (winning_bets / total_bets) * 100
-        roi = (total_profit / total_bets) * 100
-        
-        print(f"🏆 Winning Bets: {winning_bets}")
-        print(f"💀 Losing Bets: {total_bets - winning_bets}")
-        print("-" * 40)
-        print(f" Win Rate: {win_rate:.2f}%")
-        print(f"💰 Total Profit (Units): {total_profit:.2f}")
-        print(f"📊 ROI: {roi:.2f}%")
-        
-        if roi > 0:
-            print("🟢 STRATEGY IS PROFITABLE!")
-        else:
-            print("🔴 STRATEGY IS LOSING (Adjust thresholds!)")
-    else:
-        print("⚠️ No bets were played. Thresholds might be too high.")
-
-    cur.close()
-    conn.close()
-
-if __name__ == "__main__":
-    simulate_backtest()
@@ -1,164 +0,0 @@
-"""
-SNIPER Backtest
-===============
-Sadece en yüksek güvenilirlik ve değere sahip bahisleri oynar.
-"""
-
-import os
-import sys
-import json
-import time
-import psycopg2
-from psycopg2.extras import RealDictCursor
-from datetime import datetime
-
-AI_DIR = os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__))
-ROOT_DIR = os.path.dirname(AI_DIR)
-sys.path.insert(0, ROOT_DIR)
-if "scripts" in os.path.basename(AI_DIR):
-    ROOT_DIR = os.path.dirname(ROOT_DIR)
-
-from services.single_match_orchestrator import get_single_match_orchestrator
-
-def get_clean_dsn() -> str:
-    return "postgresql://suggestbet:SuGGesT2026SecuRe@localhost:15432/boilerplate_db"
-
-MATCH_IDS = [
-    "v2ljcst50nk37x04xwimpi50", "7gz0bhb5yvdssazl3y5946kno", "7ftj7kbu4rzpewxravf3luuc4",
-    "7f1z4e8ch1dm5q677644cky6s", "7ffq3aq3so22iymfdzch63nys", "rrkmeuymz7gzvoz8mplikzdg",
-    "7hegc9covicy699bxsi81xkb8", "7gl7rpr1hjayk3e5ut0gr613o", "7g7d86i3738287xfvyfeffcwk",
-    "7hs4boe4hv80muawocevvx2j8", "7ijhsloieg4t9yp5cxp0duln8", "7ixaiiptli5ek32kuybuni4gk",
-    "7i5sfh41cjpwg4l972dm487x0", "eo7g4wunxxxr8uv45q8p5x638", "7dinds2937w4645wva2rddlas",
-    "7b5ukdhvqh62wtndeqfg01ixg", "7bjptsj24gndoydn7n0202g44", "7cqxf3vo58ewrwmoom5xiyexg",
-    "7bxjl9h2hnf165rlp3o1vfztg", "7eo8zrez08c342rqsezpvq39w", "7as1muhs98vdarlhsean4bspg",
-    "7dwhj8cfxv6v6bzxpu5e3h05w", "7d4vq4417ps84yjzh95bnvvv8", "7ea9z501jgp9kxw3gay4myrkk",
-    "7cd3401itlty6ded7c1wct0yc", "ebgpz9mcije2snv986n6587pw", "i7ar1dkhvcwpxmkyks65ib6c",
-    "lyek7tyy6qk2xjs9vblucnx0", "hdn9qtyn3ysjwbc3i2trantg", "3y2bnssfqlajosiz2gpkn6xhw",
-    "40pehd14s9djjtycujavbex3o", "3xnbfjznzmnwml20akbgnis5w", "2eovi2rcc2l4ha7fpb2w7e1hw",
-    "2bwuikdjyyuithhru8ka8o00k", "2d3pcd76ya9ihi9yotxc553is", "1e9it04z4epy2etdxsffe7m6s",
-    "7af49jgo4iulv1k8cplj9smj8", "5k3vrz619hdu9nx4rnx6uim1g", "amjppgpetnyr0iisi241kgkyc",
-    "coqrhq09kxd16iejvgtzj3mz8", "d8ysan1qdctmkvjaz2adw7aqc", "9ttciz0gtb0z09ev1q5fe0ro4",
-    "9u720o37yaddqu1w6hlszpnh0", "7ijezdjp8t0rjti91ac63hyxg", "72gvdvztbb3dn79jidzzxzcb8",
-    "6uof1v2s6vrpieeml2bwo9tlg", "91dd8ia3m0bxoqzjgyo3ptsk", "3tj1nt3udsbvb9soqn2cs6gpg",
-    "1br5g88o5idtjxka1fr6zg4k4", "akuesquthbmxlzckvnqmgles4"
-]
-
-def run_sniper_backtest():
-    print("🎯 SNIPER BACKTEST: SADECE NET OLANLAR")
-    print("="*60)
-
-    dsn = get_clean_dsn()
-    conn = psycopg2.connect(dsn)
-    cur = conn.cursor(cursor_factory=RealDictCursor)
-
-    placeholders = ','.join(['%s'] * len(MATCH_IDS))
-    cur.execute(f"""
-        SELECT m.id, m.match_name, m.home_team_id, m.away_team_id,
-               m.score_home, m.score_away,
-               t1.name as home_team, t2.name as away_team,
-               l.name as league_name
-        FROM matches m
-        LEFT JOIN teams t1 ON m.home_team_id = t1.id
-        LEFT JOIN teams t2 ON m.away_team_id = t2.id
-        LEFT JOIN leagues l ON m.league_id = l.id
-        WHERE m.id IN ({placeholders}) AND m.status = 'FT'
-    """, MATCH_IDS)
-    
-    rows = cur.fetchall()
-    print(f"📊 Analiz edilecek {len(rows)} maç var.\n")
-
-    try:
-        orchestrator = get_single_match_orchestrator()
-    except Exception as e:
-        print(f"❌ AI Hatası: {e}")
-        return
-
-    total_bet = 0
-    total_won = 0
-    total_profit = 0.0
-
-    for i, row in enumerate(rows):
-        match_id = str(row['id'])
-        home = row['home_team'] or "?"
-        away = row['away_team'] or "?"
-        h_score = row['score_home'] or 0
-        a_score = row['score_away'] or 0
-
-        print(f"[{i+1}/{len(rows)}] {home} vs {away} ... ", end="", flush=True)
-
-        try:
-            pred = orchestrator.analyze_match(match_id)
-            if not pred: 
-                print("⚠️ Veri Yok")
-                continue
-
-            pick_data = pred.get("expert_recommendation", {}).get("main_pick") or pred.get("main_pick", {})
-            pick = pick_data.get("pick") or pick_data.get("market_type")
-            conf = pick_data.get("confidence", 0)
-            odds = pick_data.get("odds", 0)
-
-            # SNIPER FİLTRELERİ
-            if conf < 75:
-                print(f"🚫 PASS (Conf: {conf:.0f}%)")
-                continue
-            if odds < 1.35:
-                print(f"🚫 PASS (Odds: {odds:.2f} çok düşük)")
-                continue
-            
-            # Value Control
-            implied = 1.0 / odds
-            if (conf/100) < implied:
-                print(f"🚫 PASS (Negatif Value)")
-                continue
-
-            # OYNA
-            total_bet += 1
-            won = False
-            pick_clean = str(pick).upper()
-
-            if pick_clean in ["1", "MS 1"] and h_score > a_score: won = True
-            elif pick_clean in ["X", "MS X"] and h_score == a_score: won = True
-            elif pick_clean in ["2", "MS 2"] and a_score > h_score: won = True
-            elif "ÜST" in pick_clean or "OVER" in pick_clean:
-                line = 2.5
-                if "1.5" in pick_clean: line = 1.5
-                elif "3.5" in pick_clean: line = 3.5
-                if (h_score + a_score) > line: won = True
-            elif "ALT" in pick_clean or "UNDER" in pick_clean:
-                line = 2.5
-                if "1.5" in pick_clean: line = 1.5
-                elif "3.5" in pick_clean: line = 3.5
-                if (h_score + a_score) < line: won = True
-            elif "VAR" in pick_clean and h_score > 0 and a_score > 0: won = True
-            elif "YOK" in pick_clean and (h_score == 0 or a_score == 0): won = True
-
-            if won:
-                total_won += 1
-                profit = odds - 1.0
-                total_profit += profit
-                print(f"✅ WON! (+{profit:.2f})")
-            else:
-                total_profit -= 1.0
-                print(f"❌ LOST! ({pick} @ {odds:.2f})")
-
-        except Exception as e:
-            print(f"💥 Hata: {e}")
-
-    print("\n" + "="*60)
-    print("🎯 SNIPER SONUÇLARI")
-    print("="*60)
-    print(f"Oynanan: {total_bet}")
-    print(f"Kazanılan: {total_won}")
-    print(f"Kazanma Oranı: %{(total_won/total_bet)*100:.1f}" if total_bet > 0 else "Kazanma Oranı: N/A")
-    print(f"Toplam Kâr: {total_profit:.2f} Units")
-    
-    if total_profit > 0:
-        print("🟢 PARA KAZANDIK!")
-    else:
-        print("🔴 PARA KAYBETTİK!")
-
-    cur.close()
-    conn.close()
-
-if __name__ == "__main__":
-    run_sniper_backtest()
@@ -1,162 +0,0 @@
-"""
-Strict Sniper Backtest (Calibrated)
-===================================
-Sadece Güven > %75 ve Oran > 1.30 olan bahisleri oynar.
-Modelin şişirilmiş özgüvenini elemek için yapıldı.
-"""
-
-import os
-import sys
-import json
-import time
-import psycopg2
-from psycopg2.extras import RealDictCursor
-
-AI_DIR = os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__))
-ROOT_DIR = os.path.dirname(AI_DIR)
-sys.path.insert(0, ROOT_DIR)
-if "scripts" in os.path.basename(AI_DIR):
-    ROOT_DIR = os.path.dirname(ROOT_DIR)
-
-from services.single_match_orchestrator import get_single_match_orchestrator
-
-def get_clean_dsn() -> str:
-    return "postgresql://suggestbet:SuGGesT2026SecuRe@localhost:15432/boilerplate_db"
-
-def run_strict_backtest():
-    print("🎯 STRICT SNIPER BACKTEST (Conf > 75%)")
-    print("="*60)
-    
-    leagues_path = os.path.join(ROOT_DIR, "top_leagues.json")
-    with open(leagues_path, 'r') as f:
-        top_leagues = json.load(f)
-    league_ids = tuple(str(lid) for lid in top_leagues)
-
-    dsn = get_clean_dsn()
-    conn = psycopg2.connect(dsn)
-    cur = conn.cursor(cursor_factory=RealDictCursor)
-
-    cur.execute("""
-        SELECT m.id, m.match_name, m.home_team_id, m.away_team_id,
-               m.score_home, m.score_away,
-               t1.name as home_team, t2.name as away_team
-        FROM matches m
-        LEFT JOIN teams t1 ON m.home_team_id = t1.id
-        LEFT JOIN teams t2 ON m.away_team_id = t2.id
-        WHERE m.league_id IN %s
-          AND m.status = 'FT'
-          AND m.score_home IS NOT NULL
-          AND EXISTS (SELECT 1 FROM odd_categories oc WHERE oc.match_id = m.id)
-        ORDER BY m.mst_utc DESC
-        LIMIT 500
-    """, (league_ids,))
-    
-    rows = cur.fetchall()
-    print(f"📊 {len(rows)} maç taranıyor. Sadece NET OLANLAR oynanacak...\n")
-
-    try: orchestrator = get_single_match_orchestrator()
-    except Exception as e:
-        print(f"❌ AI Hatası: {e}")
-        return
-
-    total_bet = 0
-    total_won = 0
-    total_profit = 0.0
-
-    for i, row in enumerate(rows):
-        match_id = str(row['id'])
-        home = row['home_team'] or "?"
-        away = row['away_team'] or "?"
-        h_score = row['score_home'] or 0
-        a_score = row['score_away'] or 0
-
-        try:
-            pred = orchestrator.analyze_match(match_id)
-            if not pred: continue
-
-            # Check all picks for a HIGH CONFIDENCE bet
-            candidates = []
-            if pred.get("expert_recommendation"):
-                rec = pred["expert_recommendation"]
-                if rec.get("main_pick"): candidates.append(rec["main_pick"])
-                if rec.get("value_picks"): candidates.extend(rec["value_picks"])
-            elif pred.get("main_pick"):
-                candidates.append(pred["main_pick"])
-
-            best_bet = None
-            for c in candidates:
-                if not c: continue
-                # Access attributes safely (Dict or Object)
-                conf = c.get("confidence", 0) if isinstance(c, dict) else getattr(c, 'confidence', 0)
-                odds = c.get("odds", 0) if isinstance(c, dict) else getattr(c, 'odds', 0)
-                pick = c.get("pick", "") if isinstance(c, dict) else getattr(c, 'pick', "")
-
-                # STRICT CRITERIA
-                if conf >= 75.0 and odds >= 1.30:
-                    # Check Value (Edge)
-                    implied = 1.0 / odds
-                    edge = ((conf/100) - implied) * 100
-                    if edge > -5.0: # Tolerant edge
-                        if best_bet is None or (conf > (best_bet.get("confidence", 0) if isinstance(best_bet, dict) else getattr(best_bet, 'confidence', 0))):
-                            best_bet = c
-
-            if best_bet:
-                pick = str(best_bet.get("pick") if isinstance(best_bet, dict) else getattr(best_bet, 'pick', "")).upper()
-                conf = best_bet.get("confidence", 0) if isinstance(best_bet, dict) else getattr(best_bet, 'confidence', 0)
-                odds = best_bet.get("odds", 0) if isinstance(best_bet, dict) else getattr(best_bet, 'odds', 0)
-                
-                # Resolution
-                won = False
-                if pick in ["1", "MS 1"] and h_score > a_score: won = True
-                elif pick in ["X", "MS X"] and h_score == a_score: won = True
-                elif pick in ["2", "MS 2"] and a_score > h_score: won = True
-                elif pick in ["1X", "X2"]:
-                    if "1X" in pick and h_score >= a_score: won = True
-                    elif "X2" in pick and a_score >= h_score: won = True
-                elif "ÜST" in pick or "OVER" in pick:
-                    line = 2.5
-                    if "1.5" in pick: line = 1.5
-                    elif "3.5" in pick: line = 3.5
-                    if (h_score + a_score) > line: won = True
-                elif "ALT" in pick or "UNDER" in pick:
-                    line = 2.5
-                    if "1.5" in pick: line = 1.5
-                    elif "3.5" in pick: line = 3.5
-                    if (h_score + a_score) < line: won = True
-                elif "VAR" in pick and h_score > 0 and a_score > 0: won = True
-                elif "YOK" in pick and (h_score == 0 or a_score == 0): won = True
-
-                total_bet += 1
-                if won:
-                    total_won += 1
-                    profit = odds - 1.0
-                    total_profit += profit
-                    print(f"[{i+1}] ✅ {home} vs {away} | {pick} ({conf:.0f}%) -> WON (+{profit:.2f})")
-                else:
-                    total_profit -= 1.0
-                    print(f"[{i+1}] ❌ {home} vs {away} | {pick} ({conf:.0f}%) -> LOST")
-
-        except Exception as e:
-            pass
-
-    print("\n" + "="*60)
-    print("🎯 STRICT SNIPER SONUÇLARI")
-    print("="*60)
-    print(f"Oynanan Bahis: {total_bet}")
-    print(f"Kazanılan: {total_won}")
-    
-    if total_bet > 0:
-        win_rate = (total_won / total_bet) * 100
-        roi = (total_profit / total_bet) * 100
-        print(f"Kazanma Oranı: %{win_rate:.2f}")
-        print(f"Toplam Kâr: {total_profit:.2f} Units")
-        if total_profit > 0: print("🟢 PARA KAZANDIK!")
-        else: print("🔴 PARA KAYBETTİK!")
-    else:
-        print("⚠️ Yeteri kadar NET maç bulunamadı.")
-
-    cur.close()
-    conn.close()
-
-if __name__ == "__main__":
-    run_strict_backtest()
@@ -1,94 +0,0 @@
-from __future__ import annotations
-
-import json
-import sys
-from pathlib import Path
-
-import psycopg2
-from psycopg2.extras import RealDictCursor
-
-
-AI_ENGINE_DIR = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[1]
-if str(AI_ENGINE_DIR) not in sys.path:
-    sys.path.insert(0, str(AI_ENGINE_DIR))
-
-from services.single_match_orchestrator import SingleMatchOrchestrator
-
-
-def _resolve_dsn() -> str:
-    env_path = AI_ENGINE_DIR / ".env"
-    if env_path.exists():
-        for line in env_path.read_text(encoding="utf-8").splitlines():
-            if line.startswith("DATABASE_URL="):
-                return line.split("=", 1)[1].strip().split("?schema=")[0]
-    raise SystemExit("DATABASE_URL not found in ai-engine/.env")
-
-
-def _fetch_matches(dsn: str, limit: int = 60) -> list[str]:
-    query = """
-        SELECT m.id
-        FROM matches m
-        WHERE m.status = 'FT'
-          AND m.sport = 'football'
-          AND m.score_home IS NOT NULL
-          AND m.score_away IS NOT NULL
-        ORDER BY m.mst_utc DESC
-        LIMIT %s
-    """
-    with psycopg2.connect(dsn) as conn:
-        with conn.cursor(cursor_factory=RealDictCursor) as cur:
-            cur.execute(query, (limit,))
-            return [str(row["id"]) for row in cur.fetchall()]
-
-
-def _score_prediction(package: dict) -> dict[str, float]:
-    rows = package.get("bet_summary", []) or []
-    playable = [row for row in rows if row.get("playable")]
-    return {
-        "playable_count": float(len(playable)),
-        "avg_edge": round(
-            sum(float(row.get("ev_edge", 0.0)) for row in playable) / len(playable),
-            4,
-        )
-        if playable
-        else 0.0,
-        "avg_confidence": round(
-            sum(float(row.get("calibrated_confidence", 0.0)) for row in playable)
-            / len(playable),
-            2,
-        )
-        if playable
-        else 0.0,
-    }
-
-
-def main() -> None:
-    dsn = _resolve_dsn()
-    match_ids = _fetch_matches(dsn)
-    orchestrator = SingleMatchOrchestrator()
-
-    results: list[dict[str, object]] = []
-    for match_id in match_ids:
-        orchestrator.engine_mode = "v25"
-        v25 = orchestrator.analyze_match(match_id)
-        orchestrator.engine_mode = "v26"
-        v26 = orchestrator.analyze_match(match_id)
-        if not v25 or not v26:
-            continue
-        results.append(
-            {
-                "match_id": match_id,
-                "v25": _score_prediction(v25),
-                "v26": _score_prediction(v26),
-                "v25_main": (v25.get("main_pick") or {}).get("pick"),
-                "v26_main": (v26.get("main_pick") or {}).get("pick"),
-            }
-        )
-
-    out_path = AI_ENGINE_DIR / "reports" / "backtest_v26_shadow.json"
-    out_path.write_text(json.dumps(results, indent=2), encoding="utf-8")
-    print(f"[OK] Shadow backtest summary written to {out_path}")
-
-
-if __name__ == "__main__":
-    main()
@@ -1,505 +0,0 @@
-from __future__ import annotations
-
-import argparse
-import csv
-import json
-import sys
-from collections import defaultdict
-from dataclasses import dataclass
-from datetime import datetime, timezone
-from pathlib import Path
-from typing import Any, Dict, Optional
-
-import psycopg2
-from psycopg2.extras import RealDictCursor
-
-
-AI_ENGINE_DIR = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[1]
-if str(AI_ENGINE_DIR) not in sys.path:
-    sys.path.insert(0, str(AI_ENGINE_DIR))
-
-from services.single_match_orchestrator import SingleMatchOrchestrator
-
-
-STRATEGIES = ("v25_aggressive", "v26_surprise", "v26_aggressive", "v26_main_htft")
-REVERSAL_LABELS = ("1/2", "2/1", "X/1", "X/2")
-
-
-@dataclass
-class MatchContext:
-    match_id: str
-    match_date_ms: int
-    league: str
-    home_team: str
-    away_team: str
-    final_home: int
-    final_away: int
-    ht_home: Optional[int]
-    ht_away: Optional[int]
-
-    @property
-    def match_name(self) -> str:
-        return f"{self.home_team} vs {self.away_team}"
-
-    @property
-    def final_score(self) -> str:
-        return f"{self.final_home}-{self.final_away}"
-
-    @property
-    def ht_score(self) -> str:
-        if self.ht_home is None or self.ht_away is None:
-            return "-"
-        return f"{self.ht_home}-{self.ht_away}"
-
-
-def _resolve_dsn() -> str:
-    env_path = AI_ENGINE_DIR / ".env"
-    if env_path.exists():
-        for line in env_path.read_text(encoding="utf-8").splitlines():
-            if line.startswith("DATABASE_URL="):
-                return line.split("=", 1)[1].strip().split("?schema=")[0]
-    raise SystemExit("DATABASE_URL not found in ai-engine/.env")
-
-
-def _fetch_matches(dsn: str, limit: int) -> list[MatchContext]:
-    query = """
-        SELECT
-            m.id,
-            m.mst_utc,
-            COALESCE(l.name, 'Unknown League') AS league,
-            COALESCE(ht.name, 'Home') AS home_team,
-            COALESCE(at.name, 'Away') AS away_team,
-            COALESCE(m.score_home, 0) AS score_home,
-            COALESCE(m.score_away, 0) AS score_away,
-            m.ht_score_home,
-            m.ht_score_away
-        FROM matches m
-        LEFT JOIN leagues l ON l.id = m.league_id
-        LEFT JOIN teams ht ON ht.id = m.home_team_id
-        LEFT JOIN teams at ON at.id = m.away_team_id
-        WHERE m.status = 'FT'
-          AND m.sport = 'football'
-          AND m.score_home IS NOT NULL
-          AND m.score_away IS NOT NULL
-          AND m.ht_score_home IS NOT NULL
-          AND m.ht_score_away IS NOT NULL
-        ORDER BY m.mst_utc DESC
-        LIMIT %s
-    """
-    with psycopg2.connect(dsn) as conn:
-        with conn.cursor(cursor_factory=RealDictCursor) as cur:
-            cur.execute(query, (limit,))
-            rows = cur.fetchall()
-    return [
-        MatchContext(
-            match_id=str(row["id"]),
-            match_date_ms=int(row["mst_utc"] or 0),
-            league=str(row["league"] or "Unknown League"),
-            home_team=str(row["home_team"] or "Home"),
-            away_team=str(row["away_team"] or "Away"),
-            final_home=int(row["score_home"] or 0),
-            final_away=int(row["score_away"] or 0),
-            ht_home=int(row["ht_score_home"]) if row.get("ht_score_home") is not None else None,
-            ht_away=int(row["ht_score_away"]) if row.get("ht_score_away") is not None else None,
-        )
-        for row in rows
-    ]
-
-
-def _safe_float(value: Any) -> float:
-    try:
-        return float(value)
-    except (TypeError, ValueError):
-        return 0.0
-
-
-def _outcome_symbol(home: int, away: int) -> str:
-    if home > away:
-        return "1"
-    if home < away:
-        return "2"
-    return "X"
-
-
-def _resolve_htft(pick: str, context: MatchContext) -> Dict[str, Any]:
-    if not pick or "/" not in str(pick):
-        return {"result": "UNRESOLVED", "won": None, "note": "htft_pick_invalid"}
-    actual = f"{_outcome_symbol(context.ht_home or 0, context.ht_away or 0)}/{_outcome_symbol(context.final_home, context.final_away)}"
-    won = str(pick).strip().upper() == actual
-    return {"result": "WON" if won else "LOST", "won": won, "note": f"actual={actual}"}
-
-
-def _market_odds(odds: Dict[str, Any], market: str, pick: str) -> float:
-    mapping = {
-        "HTFT": {
-            "1/1": "htft_11",
-            "1/X": "htft_1x",
-            "1/2": "htft_12",
-            "X/1": "htft_x1",
-            "X/X": "htft_xx",
-            "X/2": "htft_x2",
-            "2/1": "htft_21",
-            "2/X": "htft_2x",
-            "2/2": "htft_22",
-        },
-        "MS": {"1": "ms_h", "X": "ms_d", "2": "ms_a"},
-    }
-    key = mapping.get(market, {}).get(str(pick))
-    if not key:
-        return 0.0
-    value = _safe_float((odds or {}).get(key))
-    return value if value > 1.0 else 0.0
-
-
-def _evaluate_pick(
-    *,
-    strategy: str,
-    market: str,
-    pick: str,
-    odds: Any,
-    playable: bool,
-    confidence: Any,
-    extra: Optional[Dict[str, Any]],
-    context: MatchContext,
-) -> Dict[str, Any]:
-    odds_value = _safe_float(odds)
-    if market == "HT/FT":
-        market = "HTFT"
-    resolution = _resolve_htft(pick, context) if market == "HTFT" else {
-        "result": "UNRESOLVED",
-        "won": None,
-        "note": "non_htft_market",
-    }
-    counted = bool(playable and market == "HTFT" and odds_value > 1.01 and resolution["result"] in {"WON", "LOST"})
-    profit = 0.0
-    if counted:
-        profit = (odds_value - 1.0) if resolution["result"] == "WON" else -1.0
-    row = {
-        "strategy": strategy,
-        "market": market,
-        "pick": pick,
-        "odds": round(odds_value, 2),
-        "playable": playable,
-        "confidence": round(_safe_float(confidence), 1),
-        "result": resolution["result"],
-        "counted_in_roi": counted,
-        "profit_flat": round(profit, 4),
-        "resolution_note": resolution["note"],
-    }
-    if extra:
-        row.update(extra)
-    return row
-
-
-def _extract_strategy_rows(
-    *,
-    context: MatchContext,
-    odds_data: Dict[str, Any],
-    v25: Dict[str, Any],
-    v26: Dict[str, Any],
-) -> Dict[str, Optional[Dict[str, Any]]]:
-    strategies: Dict[str, Optional[Dict[str, Any]]] = {name: None for name in STRATEGIES}
-
-    v25_aggressive = v25.get("aggressive_pick") or {}
-    if v25_aggressive.get("pick"):
-        pick = str(v25_aggressive.get("pick"))
-        strategies["v25_aggressive"] = _evaluate_pick(
-            strategy="v25_aggressive",
-            market=str(v25_aggressive.get("market") or "HTFT"),
-            pick=pick,
-            odds=_market_odds(odds_data, "HTFT", pick),
-            playable=True,
-            confidence=v25_aggressive.get("confidence"),
-            extra={
-                "source": "v25.aggressive_pick",
-                "reversal_pick": pick,
-            },
-            context=context,
-        )
-
-    v26_surprise = v26.get("surprise_pick") or {}
-    v26_hunter = v26.get("surprise_hunter") or {}
-    if v26_surprise.get("pick"):
-        pick = str(v26_surprise.get("raw_pick") or v26_surprise.get("pick"))
-        strategies["v26_surprise"] = _evaluate_pick(
-            strategy="v26_surprise",
-            market=str(v26_surprise.get("market") or "HTFT"),
-            pick=pick,
-            odds=v26_surprise.get("odds") or _market_odds(odds_data, "HTFT", pick),
-            playable=bool(v26_surprise.get("playable")),
-            confidence=v26_surprise.get("calibrated_confidence", v26_surprise.get("confidence")),
-            extra={
-                "source": "v26.surprise_pick",
-                "surprise_score": round(_safe_float(v26_surprise.get("surprise_score")), 1),
-                "support_score": round(_safe_float(v26_surprise.get("support_score")), 1),
-                "reversal_pick": v26_hunter.get("reversal_pick"),
-                "reversal_prob": round(_safe_float(v26_hunter.get("reversal_prob")), 4),
-                "favorite_gap": round(_safe_float(v26_hunter.get("favorite_gap")), 3),
-                "favorite_odd": round(_safe_float(v26_hunter.get("favorite_odd")), 2),
-                "odds_band_score": round(_safe_float(v26_hunter.get("odds_band_score")), 3),
-                "odds_band_label": str(v26_hunter.get("odds_band_label") or ""),
-                "league_reversal_rate": round(_safe_float(v26_hunter.get("league_reversal_rate")), 4),
-                "league_strict_rev_rate": round(_safe_float(v26_hunter.get("league_strict_rev_rate")), 4),
-                "referee_strict_rev_rate": round(_safe_float(v26_hunter.get("referee_strict_rev_rate")), 4),
-                "reason_codes": ",".join(v26_hunter.get("reason_codes", [])),
-            },
-            context=context,
-        )
-
-    v26_aggressive = v26.get("aggressive_pick") or {}
-    if v26_aggressive.get("pick"):
-        pick = str(v26_aggressive.get("pick"))
-        strategies["v26_aggressive"] = _evaluate_pick(
-            strategy="v26_aggressive",
-            market=str(v26_aggressive.get("market") or "HTFT"),
-            pick=pick,
-            odds=v26_aggressive.get("odds") or _market_odds(odds_data, "HTFT", pick),
-            playable=True,
-            confidence=v26_aggressive.get("confidence"),
-            extra={
-                "source": "v26.aggressive_pick",
-                "reversal_pick": pick,
-            },
-            context=context,
-        )
-
-    v26_main = v26.get("main_pick") or {}
-    if str(v26_main.get("market") or "") == "HTFT" and v26_main.get("pick"):
-        pick = str(v26_main.get("raw_pick") or v26_main.get("pick"))
-        strategies["v26_main_htft"] = _evaluate_pick(
-            strategy="v26_main_htft",
-            market="HTFT",
-            pick=pick,
-            odds=v26_main.get("odds") or _market_odds(odds_data, "HTFT", pick),
-            playable=bool(v26_main.get("playable")),
-            confidence=v26_main.get("calibrated_confidence", v26_main.get("confidence")),
-            extra={
-                "source": "v26.main_pick",
-                "pick_reason": v26_main.get("pick_reason"),
-                "surprise_score": round(_safe_float(v26_main.get("surprise_score")), 1),
-            },
-            context=context,
-        )
-
-    return strategies
-
-
-def _summarize_bucket(bucket: Dict[str, float]) -> Dict[str, Any]:
-    played = int(bucket["played"])
-    won = int(bucket["won"])
-    lost = int(bucket["lost"])
-    candidate = int(bucket["candidate"])
-    profit = round(bucket["profit"], 4)
-    roi = round((profit / played) * 100.0, 2) if played else 0.0
-    hit = round((won / played) * 100.0, 2) if played else 0.0
-    return {
-        "candidates": candidate,
-        "played": played,
-        "won": won,
-        "lost": lost,
-        "profit_flat": profit,
-        "roi_flat_pct": roi,
-        "hit_rate_pct": hit,
-    }
-
-
-def _format_date(ms: int) -> str:
-    return datetime.fromtimestamp(ms / 1000, tz=timezone.utc).strftime("%Y-%m-%d")
-
-
-def _build_markdown(report: Dict[str, Any]) -> str:
-    lines: list[str] = []
-    lines.append("# HT/FT + Upset Backtest")
-    lines.append("")
-    lines.append(f"- Sample: last {report['sample_size']} finished football matches")
-    lines.append("- Scope: only HT/FT reversal and upset-oriented picks")
-    lines.append("- ROI: flat `1 unit` per played pick")
-    lines.append(f"- Generated at: {report['generated_at']}")
-    lines.append("")
-    lines.append("## Strategy Summary")
-    lines.append("")
-    lines.append("| Strategy | Candidates | Played | Won | Lost | Hit Rate | Profit | ROI |")
-    lines.append("|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|")
-    for strategy in STRATEGIES:
-        payload = report["summary"]["strategies"][strategy]
-        lines.append(
-            f"| {strategy} | {payload['candidates']} | {payload['played']} | {payload['won']} | "
-            f"{payload['lost']} | {payload['hit_rate_pct']}% | {payload['profit_flat']:+.2f} | {payload['roi_flat_pct']:+.2f}% |"
-        )
-    lines.append("")
-    lines.append("## v26 Surprise By Reversal Type")
-    lines.append("")
-    lines.append("| Reversal | Candidates | Played | Won | Lost | Profit | ROI |")
-    lines.append("|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|")
-    for reversal, payload in report["summary"]["v26_surprise_by_pick"].items():
-        lines.append(
-            f"| {reversal} | {payload['candidates']} | {payload['played']} | {payload['won']} | "
-            f"{payload['lost']} | {payload['profit_flat']:+.2f} | {payload['roi_flat_pct']:+.2f}% |"
-        )
-    lines.append("")
-    lines.append("## Match Detail")
-    lines.append("")
-    lines.append("| Date | Match | HT | FT | v25 aggressive | v26 surprise | v26 aggressive | v26 main HTFT |")
-    lines.append("|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|")
-    for match in report["matches"]:
-        lines.append(
-            f"| {_format_date(match['match_date_ms'])} | {match['match_name']} | {match['ht_score']} | {match['final_score']} | "
-            f"{match['v25_aggressive']} | {match['v26_surprise']} | {match['v26_aggressive']} | {match['v26_main_htft']} |"
-        )
-    lines.append("")
-    return "\n".join(lines)
-
-
-def main() -> None:
-    parser = argparse.ArgumentParser(description="HT/FT + upset focused backtest.")
-    parser.add_argument("--limit", type=int, default=120, help="Number of finished matches to analyze.")
-    args = parser.parse_args()
-
-    dsn = _resolve_dsn()
-    orchestrator = SingleMatchOrchestrator()
-    matches = _fetch_matches(dsn, max(1, args.limit))
-
-    strategy_buckets: Dict[str, Dict[str, float]] = {name: defaultdict(float) for name in STRATEGIES}
-    v26_reversal_buckets: Dict[str, Dict[str, float]] = {label: defaultdict(float) for label in REVERSAL_LABELS}
-    report_matches: list[Dict[str, Any]] = []
-    csv_rows: list[Dict[str, Any]] = []
-
-    for context in matches:
-        data = orchestrator._load_match_data(context.match_id)  # noqa: SLF001
-        if data is None:
-            continue
-
-        orchestrator.engine_mode = "v25"
-        v25 = orchestrator.analyze_match(context.match_id) or {}
-        orchestrator.engine_mode = "v26"
-        v26 = orchestrator.analyze_match(context.match_id) or {}
-
-        extracted = _extract_strategy_rows(
-            context=context,
-            odds_data=data.odds_data or {},
-            v25=v25,
-            v26=v26,
-        )
-
-        match_row: Dict[str, Any] = {
-            "match_id": context.match_id,
-            "match_name": context.match_name,
-            "league": context.league,
-            "match_date_ms": context.match_date_ms,
-            "ht_score": context.ht_score,
-            "final_score": context.final_score,
-        }
-
-        for strategy, payload in extracted.items():
-            if payload:
-                strategy_buckets[strategy]["candidate"] += 1
-                if payload["counted_in_roi"]:
-                    strategy_buckets[strategy]["played"] += 1
-                    if payload["result"] == "WON":
-                        strategy_buckets[strategy]["won"] += 1
-                    else:
-                        strategy_buckets[strategy]["lost"] += 1
-                    strategy_buckets[strategy]["profit"] += payload["profit_flat"]
-
-                if strategy == "v26_surprise":
-                    reversal_label = str(payload.get("reversal_pick") or "")
-                    if reversal_label in v26_reversal_buckets:
-                        v26_reversal_buckets[reversal_label]["candidate"] += 1
-                        if payload["counted_in_roi"]:
-                            v26_reversal_buckets[reversal_label]["played"] += 1
-                            if payload["result"] == "WON":
-                                v26_reversal_buckets[reversal_label]["won"] += 1
-                            else:
-                                v26_reversal_buckets[reversal_label]["lost"] += 1
-                            v26_reversal_buckets[reversal_label]["profit"] += payload["profit_flat"]
-
-                summary = (
-                    f"{payload['pick']} ({payload['result']}, {'played' if payload['counted_in_roi'] else 'not played'}, {payload['profit_flat']:+.2f})"
-                )
-                match_row[strategy] = summary
-
-                csv_rows.append(
-                    {
-                        "match_id": context.match_id,
-                        "date": _format_date(context.match_date_ms),
-                        "league": context.league,
-                        "match": context.match_name,
-                        "ht_score": context.ht_score,
-                        "final_score": context.final_score,
-                        **payload,
-                    }
-                )
-            else:
-                match_row[strategy] = "-"
-
-        report_matches.append(match_row)
-
-    report = {
-        "generated_at": datetime.now(timezone.utc).isoformat(),
-        "sample_size": len(report_matches),
-        "summary": {
-            "strategies": {
-                strategy: _summarize_bucket(bucket)
-                for strategy, bucket in strategy_buckets.items()
-            },
-            "v26_surprise_by_pick": {
-                label: _summarize_bucket(bucket)
-                for label, bucket in v26_reversal_buckets.items()
-            },
-        },
-        "matches": report_matches,
-    }
-
-    report_dir = AI_ENGINE_DIR / "reports"
-    json_path = report_dir / "backtest_v26_shadow_htft_upset.json"
-    csv_path = report_dir / "backtest_v26_shadow_htft_upset.csv"
-    md_path = report_dir / "backtest_v26_shadow_htft_upset.md"
-
-    json_path.write_text(json.dumps(report, indent=2, ensure_ascii=False), encoding="utf-8")
-    with csv_path.open("w", encoding="utf-8", newline="") as handle:
-        writer = csv.DictWriter(
-            handle,
-            fieldnames=[
-                "match_id",
-                "date",
-                "league",
-                "match",
-                "ht_score",
-                "final_score",
-                "strategy",
-                "market",
-                "pick",
-                "odds",
-                "playable",
-                "confidence",
-                "result",
-                "counted_in_roi",
-                "profit_flat",
-                "resolution_note",
-                "source",
-                "reversal_pick",
-                "reversal_prob",
-                "favorite_gap",
-                "favorite_odd",
-                "support_score",
-                "odds_band_score",
-                "odds_band_label",
-                "league_reversal_rate",
-                "league_strict_rev_rate",
-                "referee_strict_rev_rate",
-                "surprise_score",
-                "reason_codes",
-                "pick_reason",
-            ],
-        )
-        writer.writeheader()
-        writer.writerows(csv_rows)
-    md_path.write_text(_build_markdown(report), encoding="utf-8")
-
-    print(f"[OK] JSON report written to {json_path}")
-    print(f"[OK] CSV report written to {csv_path}")
-    print(f"[OK] Markdown report written to {md_path}")
-
-
-if __name__ == "__main__":
-    main()
@@ -1,810 +0,0 @@
-from __future__ import annotations
-
-import argparse
-import csv
-import json
-import sys
-from collections import defaultdict
-from dataclasses import dataclass
-from datetime import datetime, timezone
-from pathlib import Path
-from typing import Any, Dict, Iterable, Optional
-
-import psycopg2
-from psycopg2.extras import RealDictCursor
-
-
-AI_ENGINE_DIR = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[1]
-if str(AI_ENGINE_DIR) not in sys.path:
-    sys.path.insert(0, str(AI_ENGINE_DIR))
-
-from services.single_match_orchestrator import SingleMatchOrchestrator
-from utils.top_leagues import load_top_league_ids
-
-
-MARKET_ORDER = [
-    "MS",
-    "DC",
-    "OU15",
-    "OU25",
-    "OU35",
-    "BTTS",
-    "HT",
-    "HT_OU05",
-    "HT_OU15",
-    "HTFT",
-    "OE",
-    "CARDS",
-    "HCAP",
-]
-
-
-@dataclass
-class MatchContext:
-    match_id: str
-    match_date_ms: int
-    league_id: Optional[str]
-    league: str
-    home_team: str
-    away_team: str
-    final_home: int
-    final_away: int
-    ht_home: Optional[int]
-    ht_away: Optional[int]
-    total_cards: Optional[float]
-
-    @property
-    def match_name(self) -> str:
-        return f"{self.home_team} vs {self.away_team}"
-
-    @property
-    def final_score(self) -> str:
-        return f"{self.final_home}-{self.final_away}"
-
-    @property
-    def ht_score(self) -> Optional[str]:
-        if self.ht_home is None or self.ht_away is None:
-            return None
-        return f"{self.ht_home}-{self.ht_away}"
-
-    @property
-    def total_goals(self) -> int:
-        return self.final_home + self.final_away
-
-    @property
-    def total_ht_goals(self) -> Optional[int]:
-        if self.ht_home is None or self.ht_away is None:
-            return None
-        return self.ht_home + self.ht_away
-
-
-def _resolve_dsn() -> str:
-    env_path = AI_ENGINE_DIR / ".env"
-    if env_path.exists():
-        for line in env_path.read_text(encoding="utf-8").splitlines():
-            if line.startswith("DATABASE_URL="):
-                return line.split("=", 1)[1].strip().split("?schema=")[0]
-    raise SystemExit("DATABASE_URL not found in ai-engine/.env")
-
-
-def _fetch_matches(
-    dsn: str,
-    limit: int,
-    top_league_ids: Optional[list[str]] = None,
-) -> list[MatchContext]:
-    query = """
-        SELECT
-            m.id,
-            m.mst_utc,
-            m.league_id,
-            COALESCE(l.name, 'Unknown League') AS league,
-            COALESCE(ht.name, 'Home') AS home_team,
-            COALESCE(at.name, 'Away') AS away_team,
-            COALESCE(m.score_home, 0) AS score_home,
-            COALESCE(m.score_away, 0) AS score_away,
-            m.ht_score_home,
-            m.ht_score_away,
-            cards.total_cards
-        FROM matches m
-        LEFT JOIN leagues l ON l.id = m.league_id
-        LEFT JOIN teams ht ON ht.id = m.home_team_id
-        LEFT JOIN teams at ON at.id = m.away_team_id
-        LEFT JOIN (
-            SELECT
-                mpe.match_id,
-                SUM(
-                    CASE
-                        WHEN mpe.event_type::text LIKE '%%yellow_card%%' THEN 1
-                        WHEN mpe.event_type::text LIKE '%%red_card%%' THEN 2
-                        ELSE 1
-                    END
-                )::float AS total_cards
-            FROM match_player_events mpe
-            WHERE mpe.event_type::text LIKE '%%card%%'
-            GROUP BY mpe.match_id
-        ) cards ON cards.match_id = m.id
-        WHERE m.status = 'FT'
-          AND m.sport = 'football'
-          AND m.score_home IS NOT NULL
-          AND m.score_away IS NOT NULL
-    """
-    params: list[Any] = []
-    if top_league_ids:
-        query += " AND m.league_id = ANY(%s)"
-        params.append(top_league_ids)
-    query += """
-        ORDER BY m.mst_utc DESC
-        LIMIT %s
-    """
-    params.append(limit)
-    with psycopg2.connect(dsn) as conn:
-        with conn.cursor(cursor_factory=RealDictCursor) as cur:
-            cur.execute(query, params)
-            rows = cur.fetchall()
-
-    results: list[MatchContext] = []
-    for row in rows:
-        results.append(
-            MatchContext(
-                match_id=str(row["id"]),
-                match_date_ms=int(row["mst_utc"] or 0),
-                league_id=str(row["league_id"]) if row.get("league_id") else None,
-                league=str(row["league"] or "Unknown League"),
-                home_team=str(row["home_team"] or "Home"),
-                away_team=str(row["away_team"] or "Away"),
-                final_home=int(row["score_home"] or 0),
-                final_away=int(row["score_away"] or 0),
-                ht_home=(
-                    int(row["ht_score_home"])
-                    if row.get("ht_score_home") is not None
-                    else None
-                ),
-                ht_away=(
-                    int(row["ht_score_away"])
-                    if row.get("ht_score_away") is not None
-                    else None
-                ),
-                total_cards=(
-                    float(row["total_cards"])
-                    if row.get("total_cards") is not None
-                    else None
-                ),
-            )
-        )
-    return results
-
-
-def _odds_band(odds: float) -> str:
-    if odds < 1.5:
-        return "<1.50"
-    if odds < 1.8:
-        return "1.50-1.79"
-    if odds < 2.1:
-        return "1.80-2.09"
-    if odds < 2.5:
-        return "2.10-2.49"
-    return "2.50+"
-
-
-def _confidence_band(confidence: float) -> str:
-    if confidence < 55.0:
-        return "<55"
-    if confidence < 65.0:
-        return "55-64.9"
-    if confidence < 75.0:
-        return "65-74.9"
-    return "75+"
-
-
-def _edge_band(edge: float) -> str:
-    if edge < 0.03:
-        return "<0.03"
-    if edge < 0.06:
-        return "0.03-0.059"
-    if edge < 0.10:
-        return "0.06-0.099"
-    return "0.10+"
-
-
-def _top_n_buckets(rows: Iterable[tuple[str, float]], limit: int = 10) -> list[dict[str, Any]]:
-    ranked = sorted(rows, key=lambda item: (-item[1], item[0]))
-    return [
-        {"label": label, "count": int(count)}
-        for label, count in ranked[:limit]
-    ]
-
-
-def _summarize_v26_losses(csv_rows: list[Dict[str, Any]]) -> Dict[str, Any]:
-    losses = [
-        row for row in csv_rows
-        if row.get("model") == "v26.shadow"
-        and bool(row.get("counted_in_roi"))
-        and row.get("result") == "LOST"
-    ]
-    by_market: Dict[str, float] = defaultdict(float)
-    by_league: Dict[str, float] = defaultdict(float)
-    by_pick: Dict[str, float] = defaultdict(float)
-    by_odds_band: Dict[str, float] = defaultdict(float)
-    by_conf_band: Dict[str, float] = defaultdict(float)
-    by_edge_band: Dict[str, float] = defaultdict(float)
-
-    for row in losses:
-        market = str(row.get("market") or "UNKNOWN")
-        league = str(row.get("league") or "Unknown League")
-        pick = str(row.get("pick") or "")
-        odds = _safe_float(row.get("odds"))
-        confidence = _safe_float(row.get("confidence"))
-        edge = _safe_float(row.get("edge"))
-
-        by_market[market] += 1
-        by_league[league] += 1
-        by_pick[f"{market} {pick}".strip()] += 1
-        by_odds_band[_odds_band(odds)] += 1
-        by_conf_band[_confidence_band(confidence)] += 1
-        by_edge_band[_edge_band(edge)] += 1
-
-    return {
-        "lost_bets": len(losses),
-        "by_market": _top_n_buckets(by_market.items(), limit=20),
-        "by_league": _top_n_buckets(by_league.items(), limit=15),
-        "by_pick": _top_n_buckets(by_pick.items(), limit=15),
-        "by_odds_band": _top_n_buckets(by_odds_band.items(), limit=10),
-        "by_confidence_band": _top_n_buckets(by_conf_band.items(), limit=10),
-        "by_edge_band": _top_n_buckets(by_edge_band.items(), limit=10),
-    }
-
-
-def _safe_float(value: Any) -> float:
-    try:
-        return float(value)
-    except (TypeError, ValueError):
-        return 0.0
-
-
-def _normalize_text(value: Any) -> str:
-    text = str(value or "").strip().upper()
-    return (
-        text.replace("İ", "I")
-        .replace("İ", "I")
-        .replace("Ş", "S")
-        .replace("Ğ", "G")
-        .replace("Ü", "U")
-        .replace("Ö", "O")
-        .replace("Ç", "C")
-    )
-
-
-def _outcome_symbol(home: int, away: int) -> str:
-    if home > away:
-        return "1"
-    if home < away:
-        return "2"
-    return "X"
-
-
-def _resolve_pick(
-    market: str,
-    pick: str,
-    context: MatchContext,
-) -> Dict[str, Any]:
-    market_code = _normalize_text(market).replace("/", "")
-    pick_text = str(pick or "").strip()
-    pick_norm = _normalize_text(pick_text)
-
-    if not market_code or not pick_norm:
-        return {"result": "UNRESOLVED", "won": None, "note": "pick_missing"}
-
-    if market_code == "HTFT":
-        market_code = "HTFT"
-    if market_code == "HTFT" or market_code == "HTFT":
-        if context.ht_home is None or context.ht_away is None:
-            return {"result": "UNRESOLVED", "won": None, "note": "ht_score_missing"}
-        if "/" not in pick_text:
-            return {"result": "UNRESOLVED", "won": None, "note": "htft_pick_invalid"}
-        ht_pick, ft_pick = pick_text.split("/", 1)
-        actual = f"{_outcome_symbol(context.ht_home, context.ht_away)}/{_outcome_symbol(context.final_home, context.final_away)}"
-        won = f"{_normalize_text(ht_pick)}/{_normalize_text(ft_pick)}" == actual
-        return {"result": "WON" if won else "LOST", "won": won, "note": f"actual={actual}"}
-
-    if market_code == "MS":
-        actual = _outcome_symbol(context.final_home, context.final_away)
-        won = pick_norm in {actual, f"MS {actual}"}
-        return {"result": "WON" if won else "LOST", "won": won, "note": f"actual={actual}"}
-
-    if market_code == "DC":
-        actual = _outcome_symbol(context.final_home, context.final_away)
-        winning = {
-            "1X": {"1", "X"},
-            "X2": {"X", "2"},
-            "12": {"1", "2"},
-        }
-        won = actual in winning.get(pick_norm, set())
-        return {"result": "WON" if won else "LOST", "won": won, "note": f"actual={actual}"}
-
-    if market_code in {"OU15", "OU25", "OU35", "HTOU05", "HTOU15", "HT_OU05", "HT_OU15"}:
-        if market_code in {"HTOU05", "HTOU15", "HT_OU05", "HT_OU15"}:
-            if context.total_ht_goals is None:
-                return {"result": "UNRESOLVED", "won": None, "note": "ht_score_missing"}
-            total = context.total_ht_goals
-            line = 0.5 if "05" in market_code else 1.5
-        else:
-            total = context.total_goals
-            line = {"OU15": 1.5, "OU25": 2.5, "OU35": 3.5}[market_code]
-
-        if "UST" in pick_norm or "OVER" in pick_norm:
-            won = total > line
-            side = "OVER"
-        elif "ALT" in pick_norm or "UNDER" in pick_norm:
-            won = total < line
-            side = "UNDER"
-        else:
-            return {"result": "UNRESOLVED", "won": None, "note": "ou_side_unknown"}
-        return {
-            "result": "WON" if won else "LOST",
-            "won": won,
-            "note": f"actual_total={total} side={side} line={line}",
-        }
-
-    if market_code == "BTTS":
-        both_scored = context.final_home > 0 and context.final_away > 0
-        if "VAR" in pick_norm or "YES" in pick_norm:
-            won = both_scored
-            side = "YES"
-        elif "YOK" in pick_norm or pick_norm.endswith("NO") or pick_norm == "NO":
-            won = not both_scored
-            side = "NO"
-        else:
-            return {"result": "UNRESOLVED", "won": None, "note": "btts_side_unknown"}
-        return {
-            "result": "WON" if won else "LOST",
-            "won": won,
-            "note": f"actual_btts={'YES' if both_scored else 'NO'} side={side}",
-        }
-
-    if market_code == "HT":
-        if context.ht_home is None or context.ht_away is None:
-            return {"result": "UNRESOLVED", "won": None, "note": "ht_score_missing"}
-        actual = _outcome_symbol(context.ht_home, context.ht_away)
-        won = pick_norm == actual
-        return {"result": "WON" if won else "LOST", "won": won, "note": f"actual={actual}"}
-
-    if market_code == "OE":
-        actual = "EVEN" if context.total_goals % 2 == 0 else "ODD"
-        if pick_norm in {"CIFT", "EVEN"}:
-            wanted = "EVEN"
-        elif pick_norm in {"TEK", "ODD"}:
-            wanted = "ODD"
-        else:
-            return {"result": "UNRESOLVED", "won": None, "note": "oe_pick_unknown"}
-        won = actual == wanted
-        return {"result": "WON" if won else "LOST", "won": won, "note": f"actual={actual}"}
-
-    if market_code == "CARDS":
-        if context.total_cards is None:
-            return {"result": "UNRESOLVED", "won": None, "note": "cards_missing"}
-        if "UST" in pick_norm or "OVER" in pick_norm:
-            won = context.total_cards > 4.5
-            side = "OVER"
-        elif "ALT" in pick_norm or "UNDER" in pick_norm:
-            won = context.total_cards < 4.5
-            side = "UNDER"
-        else:
-            return {"result": "UNRESOLVED", "won": None, "note": "cards_side_unknown"}
-        return {
-            "result": "WON" if won else "LOST",
-            "won": won,
-            "note": f"actual_cards={context.total_cards:.1f} side={side} line=4.5",
-        }
-
-    if market_code == "HCAP":
-        adjusted_home = context.final_home - 1.0
-        adjusted_away = float(context.final_away)
-        if adjusted_home > adjusted_away:
-            actual = "1"
-        elif adjusted_home < adjusted_away:
-            actual = "2"
-        else:
-            actual = "X"
-        won = pick_norm == actual
-        return {
-            "result": "WON" if won else "LOST",
-            "won": won,
-            "note": f"actual={actual} line_home=-1.0",
-        }
-
-    return {"result": "UNRESOLVED", "won": None, "note": "market_not_supported"}
-
-
-def _evaluate_row(
-    market: str,
-    pick: str,
-    odds: Any,
-    playable: bool,
-    stake_units: Any,
-    context: MatchContext,
-) -> Dict[str, Any]:
-    resolution = _resolve_pick(market, pick, context)
-    odds_value = _safe_float(odds)
-    stake_value = _safe_float(stake_units)
-    counted = bool(playable and odds_value > 1.01 and resolution["result"] in {"WON", "LOST"})
-
-    flat_profit = 0.0
-    stake_profit = 0.0
-    if counted:
-        flat_profit = (odds_value - 1.0) if resolution["result"] == "WON" else -1.0
-        stake_profit = flat_profit * (stake_value if stake_value > 0 else 1.0)
-
-    return {
-        "result": resolution["result"],
-        "won": resolution["won"],
-        "resolution_note": resolution["note"],
-        "counted_in_roi": counted,
-        "profit_flat": round(flat_profit, 4),
-        "profit_stake": round(stake_profit, 4),
-    }
-
-
-def _summarize_bucket(bucket: Dict[str, float]) -> Dict[str, Any]:
-    played = int(bucket["played"])
-    won = int(bucket["won"])
-    lost = int(bucket["lost"])
-    unresolved = int(bucket["unresolved"])
-    profit = round(bucket["profit"], 4)
-    roi = round((profit / played) * 100.0, 2) if played else 0.0
-    win_rate = round((won / played) * 100.0, 2) if played else 0.0
-    return {
-        "played": played,
-        "won": won,
-        "lost": lost,
-        "unresolved": unresolved,
-        "profit_flat": profit,
-        "roi_flat_pct": roi,
-        "win_rate_pct": win_rate,
-    }
-
-
-def _format_date(ms: int) -> str:
-    if ms <= 0:
-        return "-"
-    dt = datetime.fromtimestamp(ms / 1000, tz=timezone.utc)
-    return dt.strftime("%Y-%m-%d")
-
-
-def _build_markdown_report(report: Dict[str, Any]) -> str:
-    lines: list[str] = []
-    lines.append("# v25 vs v26.shadow ROI Report")
-    lines.append("")
-    lines.append(f"- Sample: last {report['sample_size']} finished football matches")
-    if report.get("top_leagues_only"):
-        lines.append("- Filter: top leagues only")
-    lines.append("- ROI calculation: flat `1 unit` per playable and resolvable bet")
-    lines.append(f"- Generated at: {report['generated_at']}")
-    lines.append("")
-    lines.append("## Overall Summary")
-    lines.append("")
-    lines.append("| Model | Played | Won | Lost | Win Rate | Profit | ROI | Main Pick ROI | Main Pick W/L |")
-    lines.append("|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---|")
-    for model_name, payload in report["summary"]["models"].items():
-        main = payload["main_pick"]
-        lines.append(
-            f"| {model_name} | {payload['all_playable']['played']} | {payload['all_playable']['won']} | "
-            f"{payload['all_playable']['lost']} | {payload['all_playable']['win_rate_pct']}% | "
-            f"{payload['all_playable']['profit_flat']:+.2f} | {payload['all_playable']['roi_flat_pct']:+.2f}% | "
-            f"{main['roi_flat_pct']:+.2f}% | {main['won']}/{main['played']} |"
-        )
-    lines.append("")
-    lines.append("## Market Summary")
-    lines.append("")
-    lines.append("| Model | Market | Played | Won | Lost | Profit | ROI |")
-    lines.append("|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|")
-    for model_name, markets in report["summary"]["markets"].items():
-        for market_name in MARKET_ORDER:
-            payload = markets.get(market_name)
-            if not payload or payload["played"] == 0:
-                continue
-            lines.append(
-                f"| {model_name} | {market_name} | {payload['played']} | {payload['won']} | {payload['lost']} | "
-                f"{payload['profit_flat']:+.2f} | {payload['roi_flat_pct']:+.2f}% |"
-            )
-    lines.append("")
-    loss_summary = report["summary"].get("v26_loss_analysis", {})
-    if loss_summary:
-        lines.append("## v26 Loss Analysis")
-        lines.append("")
-        lines.append(f"- Lost bets: {loss_summary.get('lost_bets', 0)}")
-        lines.append("")
-        lines.append("| Bucket | Top Items |")
-        lines.append("|---|---|")
-        for label, key in (
-            ("By market", "by_market"),
-            ("By league", "by_league"),
-            ("By pick", "by_pick"),
-            ("By odds band", "by_odds_band"),
-            ("By confidence band", "by_confidence_band"),
-            ("By edge band", "by_edge_band"),
-        ):
-            items = loss_summary.get(key) or []
-            rendered = ", ".join(f"{item['label']} ({item['count']})" for item in items[:6]) or "-"
-            lines.append(f"| {label} | {rendered} |")
-        lines.append("")
-    lines.append("## Match By Match")
-    lines.append("")
-    lines.append("| Date | Match | Score | v25 Main | v25 Played Picks | v25 Profit | v26 Main | v26 Played Picks | v26 Profit |")
-    lines.append("|---|---|---|---|---|---:|---|---|---:|")
-    for match in report["matches"]:
-        v25 = match["models"]["v25"]
-        v26 = match["models"]["v26.shadow"]
-        lines.append(
-            f"| {_format_date(match['match_date_ms'])} | {match['match_name']} | {match['final_score']} | "
-            f"{v25['main_pick']['summary']} | {v25['played_picks_summary']} | {v25['profit_flat']:+.2f} | "
-            f"{v26['main_pick']['summary']} | {v26['played_picks_summary']} | {v26['profit_flat']:+.2f} |"
-        )
-    lines.append("")
-    return "\n".join(lines)
-
-
-def main() -> None:
-    parser = argparse.ArgumentParser(
-        description="Detailed ROI backtest for v25 vs v26.shadow.",
-    )
-    parser.add_argument("--limit", type=int, default=60, help="Number of finished matches to analyze.")
-    parser.add_argument(
-        "--top-leagues-only",
-        action="store_true",
-        help="Only analyze matches whose league_id exists in top_leagues.json.",
-    )
-    args = parser.parse_args()
-
-    dsn = _resolve_dsn()
-    top_league_ids = sorted(load_top_league_ids()) if args.top_leagues_only else None
-    matches = _fetch_matches(dsn, max(1, args.limit), top_league_ids=top_league_ids)
-    orchestrator = SingleMatchOrchestrator()
-
-    report_matches: list[Dict[str, Any]] = []
-    model_aggregate: Dict[str, Dict[str, float]] = {
-        "v25": defaultdict(float),
-        "v26.shadow": defaultdict(float),
-    }
-    main_pick_aggregate: Dict[str, Dict[str, float]] = {
-        "v25": defaultdict(float),
-        "v26.shadow": defaultdict(float),
-    }
-    market_aggregate: Dict[str, Dict[str, Dict[str, float]]] = {
-        "v25": defaultdict(lambda: defaultdict(float)),
-        "v26.shadow": defaultdict(lambda: defaultdict(float)),
-    }
-    csv_rows: list[Dict[str, Any]] = []
-
-    for context in matches:
-        match_payload = {
-            "match_id": context.match_id,
-            "match_name": context.match_name,
-            "league": context.league,
-            "match_date_ms": context.match_date_ms,
-            "final_score": context.final_score,
-            "ht_score": context.ht_score,
-            "total_cards": context.total_cards,
-            "models": {},
-        }
-
-        for model_name, mode in (("v25", "v25"), ("v26.shadow", "v26")):
-            orchestrator.engine_mode = mode
-            package = orchestrator.analyze_match(context.match_id) or {}
-            rows = package.get("bet_summary") or []
-            evaluated_rows: list[Dict[str, Any]] = []
-            match_profit = 0.0
-
-            for row in rows:
-                market = str(row.get("market") or "")
-                pick = str(row.get("pick") or "")
-                evaluation = _evaluate_row(
-                    market=market,
-                    pick=pick,
-                    odds=row.get("odds"),
-                    playable=bool(row.get("playable")),
-                    stake_units=row.get("stake_units"),
-                    context=context,
-                )
-                combined = {
-                    "market": market,
-                    "pick": pick,
-                    "playable": bool(row.get("playable")),
-                    "bet_grade": row.get("bet_grade"),
-                    "odds": round(_safe_float(row.get("odds")), 2),
-                    "calibrated_confidence": round(_safe_float(row.get("calibrated_confidence")), 1),
-                    "edge": round(_safe_float(row.get("ev_edge", row.get("edge"))), 4),
-                    "stake_units": round(_safe_float(row.get("stake_units")), 2),
-                    **evaluation,
-                }
-                evaluated_rows.append(combined)
-
-                if combined["counted_in_roi"]:
-                    bucket = market_aggregate[model_name][market]
-                    bucket["played"] += 1
-                    if combined["result"] == "WON":
-                        bucket["won"] += 1
-                    else:
-                        bucket["lost"] += 1
-                    bucket["profit"] += combined["profit_flat"]
-
-                    model_bucket = model_aggregate[model_name]
-                    model_bucket["played"] += 1
-                    if combined["result"] == "WON":
-                        model_bucket["won"] += 1
-                    else:
-                        model_bucket["lost"] += 1
-                    model_bucket["profit"] += combined["profit_flat"]
-                    match_profit += combined["profit_flat"]
-                elif combined["playable"]:
-                    model_aggregate[model_name]["unresolved"] += 1
-                    market_aggregate[model_name][market]["unresolved"] += 1
-
-                csv_rows.append(
-                    {
-                        "match_id": context.match_id,
-                        "date": _format_date(context.match_date_ms),
-                        "league": context.league,
-                        "match": context.match_name,
-                        "final_score": context.final_score,
-                        "ht_score": context.ht_score or "",
-                        "model": model_name,
-                        "market": market,
-                        "pick": pick,
-                        "playable": combined["playable"],
-                        "bet_grade": combined["bet_grade"],
-                        "odds": combined["odds"],
-                        "confidence": combined["calibrated_confidence"],
-                        "edge": combined["edge"],
-                        "result": combined["result"],
-                        "counted_in_roi": combined["counted_in_roi"],
-                        "profit_flat": combined["profit_flat"],
-                        "resolution_note": combined["resolution_note"],
-                    }
-                )
-
-            main_pick = package.get("main_pick") or {}
-            main_eval = _evaluate_row(
-                market=str(main_pick.get("market") or ""),
-                pick=str(main_pick.get("pick") or ""),
-                odds=main_pick.get("odds"),
-                playable=bool(main_pick.get("playable")),
-                stake_units=main_pick.get("stake_units"),
-                context=context,
-            )
-            main_pick_summary = {
-                "market": main_pick.get("market"),
-                "pick": main_pick.get("pick"),
-                "playable": bool(main_pick.get("playable")),
-                "odds": round(_safe_float(main_pick.get("odds")), 2),
-                "confidence": round(
-                    _safe_float(
-                        main_pick.get("calibrated_confidence", main_pick.get("confidence"))
-                    ),
-                    1,
-                ),
-                "edge": round(_safe_float(main_pick.get("ev_edge", main_pick.get("edge"))), 4),
-                **main_eval,
-            }
-
-            if main_pick_summary["counted_in_roi"]:
-                summary_suffix = (
-                    f"{main_pick_summary['result']}, played, {main_pick_summary['profit_flat']:+.2f}"
-                )
-            elif main_pick_summary.get("market") and main_pick_summary.get("pick"):
-                summary_suffix = f"{main_pick_summary['result']}, not played"
-            else:
-                summary_suffix = ""
-
-            if main_pick_summary["counted_in_roi"]:
-                bucket = main_pick_aggregate[model_name]
-                bucket["played"] += 1
-                if main_pick_summary["result"] == "WON":
-                    bucket["won"] += 1
-                else:
-                    bucket["lost"] += 1
-                bucket["profit"] += main_pick_summary["profit_flat"]
-            elif main_pick_summary["playable"]:
-                main_pick_aggregate[model_name]["unresolved"] += 1
-
-            main_pick_summary["summary"] = (
-                f"{main_pick_summary['market']} {main_pick_summary['pick']} "
-                f"({summary_suffix})"
-                if main_pick_summary.get("market") and main_pick_summary.get("pick")
-                else "No main pick"
-            )
-
-            played_rows = [row for row in evaluated_rows if row["counted_in_roi"]]
-            played_picks_summary = (
-                "; ".join(
-                    f"{row['market']} {row['pick']}={row['result']} ({row['profit_flat']:+.2f})"
-                    for row in played_rows
-                )
-                if played_rows
-                else "-"
-            )
-
-            match_payload["models"][model_name] = {
-                "main_pick": main_pick_summary,
-                "profit_flat": round(match_profit, 4),
-                "played_picks_summary": played_picks_summary,
-                "played_picks": played_rows,
-                "all_picks": evaluated_rows,
-            }
-
-        report_matches.append(match_payload)
-
-    summary = {
-        "models": {
-            model_name: {
-                "all_playable": _summarize_bucket(model_aggregate[model_name]),
-                "main_pick": _summarize_bucket(main_pick_aggregate[model_name]),
-            }
-            for model_name in ("v25", "v26.shadow")
-        },
-        "markets": {
-            model_name: {
-                market_name: _summarize_bucket(bucket)
-                for market_name, bucket in sorted(
-                    market_aggregate[model_name].items(),
-                    key=lambda item: (
-                        MARKET_ORDER.index(item[0]) if item[0] in MARKET_ORDER else 999,
-                        item[0],
-                    ),
-                )
-            }
-            for model_name in ("v25", "v26.shadow")
-        },
-        "v26_loss_analysis": _summarize_v26_losses(csv_rows),
-    }
-
-    report = {
-        "generated_at": datetime.now(timezone.utc).isoformat(),
-        "sample_size": len(report_matches),
-        "top_leagues_only": bool(args.top_leagues_only),
-        "summary": summary,
-        "matches": report_matches,
-    }
-
-    report_dir = AI_ENGINE_DIR / "reports"
-    json_path = report_dir / "backtest_v26_shadow_roi_detail.json"
-    csv_path = report_dir / "backtest_v26_shadow_roi_picks.csv"
-    md_path = report_dir / "backtest_v26_shadow_roi_report.md"
-
-    json_path.write_text(json.dumps(report, indent=2, ensure_ascii=False), encoding="utf-8")
-
-    with csv_path.open("w", encoding="utf-8", newline="") as handle:
-        writer = csv.DictWriter(
-            handle,
-            fieldnames=[
-                "match_id",
-                "date",
-                "league",
-                "match",
-                "final_score",
-                "ht_score",
-                "model",
-                "market",
-                "pick",
-                "playable",
-                "bet_grade",
-                "odds",
-                "confidence",
-                "edge",
-                "result",
-                "counted_in_roi",
-                "profit_flat",
-                "resolution_note",
-            ],
-        )
-        writer.writeheader()
-        writer.writerows(csv_rows)
-
-    md_path.write_text(_build_markdown_report(report), encoding="utf-8")
-
-    print(f"[OK] JSON report written to {json_path}")
-    print(f"[OK] CSV report written to {csv_path}")
-    print(f"[OK] Markdown report written to {md_path}")
-
-
-if __name__ == "__main__":
-    main()
@@ -1,230 +0,0 @@
-"""
-Backtest the live V2 predictor stack against recent finished football matches.
-
-This script uses the same path as production:
-database -> feature extractor -> betting predictor -> quant ranking.
-"""
-
-from __future__ import annotations
-
-import argparse
-import asyncio
-import sys
-from dataclasses import dataclass
-from pathlib import Path
-
-from sqlalchemy import text
-
-ROOT_DIR = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[1]
-if str(ROOT_DIR) not in sys.path:
-    sys.path.insert(0, str(ROOT_DIR))
-
-from core.quant import MarketPick, analyze_market
-from data.database import dispose_engine, get_session
-from features.extractor import extract_features
-from models.betting_engine import get_predictor
-
-
-@dataclass
-class BacktestStats:
-    sampled_matches: int = 0
-    analyzed_matches: int = 0
-    skipped_matches: int = 0
-    ms_correct: int = 0
-    ou25_correct: int = 0
-    btts_correct: int = 0
-    main_pick_count: int = 0
-    main_pick_correct: int = 0
-    playable_pick_count: int = 0
-    playable_pick_correct: int = 0
-    playable_units_staked: float = 0.0
-    playable_units_profit: float = 0.0
-
-
-def _parse_args() -> argparse.Namespace:
-    parser = argparse.ArgumentParser()
-    parser.add_argument("--limit", type=int, default=50)
-    parser.add_argument("--days", type=int, default=45)
-    return parser.parse_args()
-
-
-def _actual_ms(score_home: int, score_away: int) -> str:
-    if score_home > score_away:
-        return "1"
-    if score_home < score_away:
-        return "2"
-    return "X"
-
-
-def _actual_ou25(score_home: int, score_away: int) -> str:
-    return "Over" if (score_home + score_away) > 2 else "Under"
-
-
-def _actual_btts(score_home: int, score_away: int) -> str:
-    return "Yes" if score_home > 0 and score_away > 0 else "No"
-
-
-def _odds_map_from_features(feats) -> dict[str, dict[str, float]]:
-    return {
-        "MS": {"1": feats.odds_home, "X": feats.odds_draw, "2": feats.odds_away},
-        "OU25": {"Under": feats.odds_under25, "Over": feats.odds_over25},
-        "BTTS": {"No": feats.odds_btts_no, "Yes": feats.odds_btts_yes},
-    }
-
-
-def _best_pick(feats, all_probs: dict[str, dict[str, float]]) -> MarketPick | None:
-    odds_map = _odds_map_from_features(feats)
-    picks = [
-        analyze_market("MS", all_probs["MS"], odds_map["MS"], feats.data_quality_score),
-        analyze_market("OU25", all_probs["OU25"], odds_map["OU25"], feats.data_quality_score),
-        analyze_market("BTTS", all_probs["BTTS"], odds_map["BTTS"], feats.data_quality_score),
-    ]
-    ranked = sorted(
-        [pick for pick in picks if pick.pick],
-        key=lambda pick: pick.play_score,
-        reverse=True,
-    )
-    return ranked[0] if ranked else None
-
-
-def _pick_won(pick: MarketPick, actuals: dict[str, str]) -> bool:
-    return actuals.get(pick.market) == pick.pick
-
-
-async def _load_match_rows(limit: int, days: int) -> list[dict[str, object]]:
-    min_mst_utc = days * 86400000
-    query = text("""
-        SELECT
-            m.id,
-            m.match_name,
-            m.score_home,
-            m.score_away,
-            m.mst_utc
-        FROM matches m
-        WHERE m.sport = 'football'
-          AND m.score_home IS NOT NULL
-          AND m.score_away IS NOT NULL
-          AND m.mst_utc >= (
-            EXTRACT(EPOCH FROM NOW()) * 1000 - :min_mst_utc
-          )
-          AND EXISTS (
-            SELECT 1
-            FROM odd_categories oc
-            WHERE oc.match_id = m.id
-              AND oc.name IN ('Maç Sonucu', '2,5 Alt/Üst', 'Karşılıklı Gol')
-          )
-        ORDER BY m.mst_utc DESC
-        LIMIT :limit
-    """)
-    async with get_session() as session:
-        result = await session.execute(
-            query,
-            {"limit": limit, "min_mst_utc": min_mst_utc},
-        )
-        rows = result.mappings().all()
-    return [dict(row) for row in rows]
-
-
-async def _run(limit: int, days: int) -> BacktestStats:
-    stats = BacktestStats()
-    predictor = get_predictor()
-    rows = await _load_match_rows(limit, days)
-    stats.sampled_matches = len(rows)
-
-    async with get_session() as session:
-        for row in rows:
-            match_id = str(row["id"])
-            score_home = int(row["score_home"])
-            score_away = int(row["score_away"])
-            feats = await extract_features(session, match_id)
-
-            if feats is None:
-                stats.skipped_matches += 1
-                continue
-
-            if feats.data_quality_score <= 0.0:
-                stats.skipped_matches += 1
-                continue
-
-            all_probs = predictor.predict_all(feats.to_model_array(), feats)
-            stats.analyzed_matches += 1
-
-            actuals = {
-                "MS": _actual_ms(score_home, score_away),
-                "OU25": _actual_ou25(score_home, score_away),
-                "BTTS": _actual_btts(score_home, score_away),
-            }
-
-            if max(all_probs["MS"], key=all_probs["MS"].get) == actuals["MS"]:
-                stats.ms_correct += 1
-            if max(all_probs["OU25"], key=all_probs["OU25"].get) == actuals["OU25"]:
-                stats.ou25_correct += 1
-            if max(all_probs["BTTS"], key=all_probs["BTTS"].get) == actuals["BTTS"]:
-                stats.btts_correct += 1
-
-            best_pick = _best_pick(feats, all_probs)
-            if best_pick is None:
-                continue
-
-            stats.main_pick_count += 1
-            if _pick_won(best_pick, actuals):
-                stats.main_pick_correct += 1
-
-            if best_pick.playable:
-                stats.playable_pick_count += 1
-                stats.playable_units_staked += best_pick.stake_units
-                if _pick_won(best_pick, actuals):
-                    stats.playable_pick_correct += 1
-                    stats.playable_units_profit += best_pick.stake_units * (best_pick.odds - 1.0)
-                else:
-                    stats.playable_units_profit -= best_pick.stake_units
-
-    return stats
-
-
-def _pct(numerator: int, denominator: int) -> float:
-    if denominator <= 0:
-        return 0.0
-    return round((numerator / denominator) * 100.0, 2)
-
-
-def _roi(profit: float, staked: float) -> float:
-    if staked <= 0:
-        return 0.0
-    return round((profit / staked) * 100.0, 2)
-
-
-def _print_summary(stats: BacktestStats) -> None:
-    print("=== V2 Runtime Backtest ===")
-    print(f"Sampled matches      : {stats.sampled_matches}")
-    print(f"Analyzed matches     : {stats.analyzed_matches}")
-    print(f"Skipped matches      : {stats.skipped_matches}")
-    print(f"MS accuracy          : {_pct(stats.ms_correct, stats.analyzed_matches)}%")
-    print(f"OU2.5 accuracy       : {_pct(stats.ou25_correct, stats.analyzed_matches)}%")
-    print(f"BTTS accuracy        : {_pct(stats.btts_correct, stats.analyzed_matches)}%")
-    print(
-        "Main pick accuracy   : "
-        f"{_pct(stats.main_pick_correct, stats.main_pick_count)}% "
-        f"({stats.main_pick_correct}/{stats.main_pick_count})"
-    )
-    print(
-        "Playable accuracy    : "
-        f"{_pct(stats.playable_pick_correct, stats.playable_pick_count)}% "
-        f"({stats.playable_pick_correct}/{stats.playable_pick_count})"
-    )
-    print(f"Units staked         : {stats.playable_units_staked:.2f}")
-    print(f"Units profit         : {stats.playable_units_profit:.2f}")
-    print(f"ROI                  : {_roi(stats.playable_units_profit, stats.playable_units_staked)}%")
-
-
-async def _main() -> None:
-    args = _parse_args()
-    try:
-        stats = await _run(args.limit, args.days)
-        _print_summary(stats)
-    finally:
-        await dispose_engine()
-
-
-if __name__ == "__main__":
-    asyncio.run(_main())
@@ -1,147 +0,0 @@
-"""
-Value Hunter Backtest
-=====================
-Sadece modelin büroyu yendiği (Pozitif Edge) maçları oynar.
-"""
-
-import os, sys, json, time, psycopg2
-from psycopg2.extras import RealDictCursor
-
-AI_DIR = os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__))
-ROOT_DIR = os.path.dirname(AI_DIR)
-sys.path.insert(0, ROOT_DIR)
-if "scripts" in os.path.basename(AI_DIR): ROOT_DIR = os.path.dirname(ROOT_DIR)
-from services.single_match_orchestrator import get_single_match_orchestrator
-
-def get_clean_dsn() -> str:
-    return "postgresql://suggestbet:SuGGesT2026SecuRe@localhost:15432/boilerplate_db"
-
-MATCH_IDS = [
-    "v2ljcst50nk37x04xwimpi50", "7gz0bhb5yvdssazl3y5946kno", "7ftj7kbu4rzpewxravf3luuc4",
-    "7f1z4e8ch1dm5q677644cky6s", "7ffq3aq3so22iymfdzch63nys", "rrkmeuymz7gzvoz8mplikzdg",
-    "7hegc9covicy699bxsi81xkb8", "7gl7rpr1hjayk3e5ut0gr613o", "7g7d86i3738287xfvyfeffcwk",
-    "7hs4boe4hv80muawocevvx2j8", "7ijhsloieg4t9yp5cxp0duln8", "7ixaiiptli5ek32kuybuni4gk",
-    "7i5sfh41cjpwg4l972dm487x0", "eo7g4wunxxxr8uv45q8p5x638", "7dinds2937w4645wva2rddlas",
-    "7b5ukdhvqh62wtndeqfg01ixg", "7bjptsj24gndoydn7n0202g44", "7cqxf3vo58ewrwmoom5xiyexg",
-    "7bxjl9h2hnf165rlp3o1vfztg", "7eo8zrez08c342rqsezpvq39w", "7as1muhs98vdarlhsean4bspg",
-    "7dwhj8cfxv6v6bzxpu5e3h05w", "7d4vq4417ps84yjzh95bnvvv8", "7ea9z501jgp9kxw3gay4myrkk",
-    "7cd3401itlty6ded7c1wct0yc", "ebgpz9mcije2snv986n6587pw", "i7ar1dkhvcwpxmkyks65ib6c",
-    "lyek7tyy6qk2xjs9vblucnx0", "hdn9qtyn3ysjwbc3i2trantg", "3y2bnssfqlajosiz2gpkn6xhw",
-    "40pehd14s9djjtycujavbex3o", "3xnbfjznzmnwml20akbgnis5w", "2eovi2rcc2l4ha7fpb2w7e1hw",
-    "2bwuikdjyyuithhru8ka8o00k", "2d3pcd76ya9ihi9yotxc553is", "1e9it04z4epy2etdxsffe7m6s",
-    "7af49jgo4iulv1k8cplj9smj8", "5k3vrz619hdu9nx4rnx6uim1g", "amjppgpetnyr0iisi241kgkyc",
-    "coqrhq09kxd16iejvgtzj3mz8", "d8ysan1qdctmkvjaz2adw7aqc", "9ttciz0gtb0z09ev1q5fe0ro4",
-    "9u720o37yaddqu1w6hlszpnh0", "7ijezdjp8t0rjti91ac63hyxg", "72gvdvztbb3dn79jidzzxzcb8",
-    "6uof1v2s6vrpieeml2bwo9tlg", "91dd8ia3m0bxoqzjgyo3ptsk", "3tj1nt3udsbvb9soqn2cs6gpg",
-    "1br5g88o5idtjxka1fr6zg4k4", "akuesquthbmxlzckvnqmgles4"
-]
-
-def run_value_hunter():
-    print("💎 VALUE HUNTER: SADECE HATALI ORANLARI YAKALA")
-    print("="*60)
-
-    dsn = get_clean_dsn()
-    conn = psycopg2.connect(dsn)
-    cur = conn.cursor(cursor_factory=RealDictCursor)
-
-    placeholders = ','.join(['%s'] * len(MATCH_IDS))
-    cur.execute(f"""
-        SELECT m.id, m.match_name, m.home_team_id, m.away_team_id,
-               m.score_home, m.score_away,
-               t1.name as home_team, t2.name as away_team
-        FROM matches m
-        LEFT JOIN teams t1 ON m.home_team_id = t1.id
-        LEFT JOIN teams t2 ON m.away_team_id = t2.id
-        WHERE m.id IN ({placeholders}) AND m.status = 'FT'
-    """, MATCH_IDS)
-    
-    rows = cur.fetchall()
-    print(f"📊 {len(rows)} maç taranıyor...\n")
-
-    try: orchestrator = get_single_match_orchestrator()
-    except Exception as e:
-        print(f"❌ AI Hatası: {e}")
-        return
-
-    total_bet = 0
-    total_won = 0
-    total_profit = 0.0
-    total_edge_found = 0
-
-    for i, row in enumerate(rows):
-        match_id = str(row['id'])
-        home = row['home_team'] or "?"
-        away = row['away_team'] or "?"
-        h_score = row['score_home'] or 0
-        a_score = row['score_away'] or 0
-
-        try:
-            pred = orchestrator.analyze_match(match_id)
-            if not pred: continue
-
-            # Tüm önerileri kontrol et
-            picks = pred.get("expert_recommendation", {}).get("value_picks", [])
-            if not picks: picks = [pred.get("expert_recommendation", {}).get("main_pick")]
-            
-            played_this_match = False
-
-            for pick_data in picks:
-                if not pick_data: continue
-                pick = pick_data.get("pick")
-                conf = pick_data.get("confidence", 0)
-                odds = pick_data.get("odds", 0)
-                edge = pick_data.get("edge", 0)
-
-                # VALUE KURALI: Model bürodan en az %10 daha iyi olmalı
-                if edge < 10: continue
-                if odds < 1.20: continue
-
-                total_bet += 1
-                total_edge_found += edge
-                won = False
-                pick_clean = str(pick).upper()
-
-                if pick_clean in ["1", "MS 1"] and h_score > a_score: won = True
-                elif pick_clean in ["X", "MS X"] and h_score == a_score: won = True
-                elif pick_clean in ["2", "MS 2"] and a_score > h_score: won = True
-                elif "ÜST" in pick_clean or "OVER" in pick_clean:
-                    line = 2.5
-                    if "1.5" in pick_clean: line = 1.5
-                    if (h_score + a_score) > line: won = True
-                elif "ALT" in pick_clean or "UNDER" in pick_clean:
-                    line = 2.5
-                    if "1.5" in pick_clean: line = 1.5
-                    if (h_score + a_score) < line: won = True
-                elif "VAR" in pick_clean and h_score > 0 and a_score > 0: won = True
-                elif "YOK" in pick_clean and (h_score == 0 or a_score == 0): won = True
-
-                if won:
-                    total_won += 1
-                    profit = odds - 1.0
-                    total_profit += profit
-                    print(f"[{i+1}] ✅ {home} vs {away} | {pick} ({edge:.0f}% Edge) -> WON! (+{profit:.2f})")
-                else:
-                    total_profit -= 1.0
-                    print(f"[{i+1}] ❌ {home} vs {away} | {pick} ({edge:.0f}% Edge) -> LOST")
-                
-                played_this_match = True
-                break # Maç başına tek bahis
-
-        except Exception: pass
-
-    print("\n" + "="*60)
-    print("💎 VALUE HUNTER SONUÇLARI")
-    print("="*60)
-    print(f"Toplam Value Bulunan Bahis: {total_bet}")
-    print(f"Ortalama Edge: {total_edge_found/total_bet:.1f}%" if total_bet > 0 else "N/A")
-    print(f"Kazanılan: {total_won}")
-    print(f"Toplam Kâr: {total_profit:.2f} Units")
-    
-    if total_profit > 0: print("🟢 PARA KAZANDIK!")
-    else: print("🔴 PARA KAYBETTİK!")
-
-    cur.close()
-    conn.close()
-
-if __name__ == "__main__":
-    run_value_hunter()
@@ -1,153 +0,0 @@
-"""
-Value Sniper Backtest (High Odds)
-=================================
-Sadece Oran > 1.50 ve Güven > %70 olan bahisleri oynar.
-"""
-
-import os
-import sys
-import json
-import time
-import psycopg2
-from psycopg2.extras import RealDictCursor
-
-AI_DIR = os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__))
-ROOT_DIR = os.path.dirname(AI_DIR)
-sys.path.insert(0, ROOT_DIR)
-if "scripts" in os.path.basename(AI_DIR):
-    ROOT_DIR = os.path.dirname(ROOT_DIR)
-
-from services.single_match_orchestrator import get_single_match_orchestrator
-
-def get_clean_dsn() -> str:
-    return "postgresql://suggestbet:SuGGesT2026SecuRe@localhost:15432/boilerplate_db"
-
-def run_value_sniper():
-    print("💰 VALUE SNIPER BACKTEST (Odds > 1.50)")
-    print("="*60)
-    
-    leagues_path = os.path.join(ROOT_DIR, "top_leagues.json")
-    with open(leagues_path, 'r') as f:
-        top_leagues = json.load(f)
-    league_ids = tuple(str(lid) for lid in top_leagues)
-
-    dsn = get_clean_dsn()
-    conn = psycopg2.connect(dsn)
-    cur = conn.cursor(cursor_factory=RealDictCursor)
-
-    cur.execute("""
-        SELECT m.id, m.match_name, m.home_team_id, m.away_team_id,
-               m.score_home, m.score_away,
-               t1.name as home_team, t2.name as away_team
-        FROM matches m
-        LEFT JOIN teams t1 ON m.home_team_id = t1.id
-        LEFT JOIN teams t2 ON m.away_team_id = t2.id
-        WHERE m.league_id IN %s
-          AND m.status = 'FT'
-          AND m.score_home IS NOT NULL
-          AND EXISTS (SELECT 1 FROM odd_categories oc WHERE oc.match_id = m.id)
-        ORDER BY m.mst_utc DESC
-        LIMIT 500
-    """, (league_ids,))
-    
-    rows = cur.fetchall()
-    print(f"📊 {len(rows)} maç taranıyor...\n")
-
-    try: orchestrator = get_single_match_orchestrator()
-    except Exception as e:
-        print(f"❌ AI Hatası: {e}")
-        return
-
-    total_bet = 0
-    total_won = 0
-    total_profit = 0.0
-
-    for i, row in enumerate(rows):
-        match_id = str(row['id'])
-        home = row['home_team'] or "?"
-        away = row['away_team'] or "?"
-        h_score = row['score_home'] or 0
-        a_score = row['score_away'] or 0
-
-        try:
-            pred = orchestrator.analyze_match(match_id)
-            if not pred: continue
-
-            candidates = []
-            if pred.get("expert_recommendation"):
-                rec = pred["expert_recommendation"]
-                if rec.get("main_pick"): candidates.append(rec["main_pick"])
-                if rec.get("value_picks"): candidates.extend(rec["value_picks"])
-            elif pred.get("main_pick"):
-                candidates.append(pred["main_pick"])
-
-            best_bet = None
-            for c in candidates:
-                if not c: continue
-                conf = c.get("confidence", 0) if isinstance(c, dict) else getattr(c, 'confidence', 0)
-                odds = c.get("odds", 0) if isinstance(c, dict) else getattr(c, 'odds', 0)
-                
-                # VALUE CRITERIA: Odds > 1.50 AND Conf > 70%
-                if conf >= 70.0 and odds >= 1.50:
-                    # Check Edge
-                    implied = 1.0 / odds
-                    edge = ((conf/100) - implied) * 100
-                    if edge > 0: # Must be positive value
-                        if best_bet is None or (conf > (best_bet.get("confidence", 0) if isinstance(best_bet, dict) else getattr(best_bet, 'confidence', 0))):
-                            best_bet = c
-
-            if best_bet:
-                pick = str(best_bet.get("pick") if isinstance(best_bet, dict) else getattr(best_bet, 'pick', "")).upper()
-                conf = best_bet.get("confidence", 0) if isinstance(best_bet, dict) else getattr(best_bet, 'confidence', 0)
-                odds = best_bet.get("odds", 0) if isinstance(best_bet, dict) else getattr(best_bet, 'odds', 0)
-                
-                won = False
-                if pick in ["1", "MS 1"] and h_score > a_score: won = True
-                elif pick in ["X", "MS X"] and h_score == a_score: won = True
-                elif pick in ["2", "MS 2"] and a_score > h_score: won = True
-                elif "ÜST" in pick or "OVER" in pick:
-                    line = 2.5
-                    if "1.5" in pick: line = 1.5
-                    elif "3.5" in pick: line = 3.5
-                    if (h_score + a_score) > line: won = True
-                elif "ALT" in pick or "UNDER" in pick:
-                    line = 2.5
-                    if "1.5" in pick: line = 1.5
-                    elif "3.5" in pick: line = 3.5
-                    if (h_score + a_score) < line: won = True
-                elif "VAR" in pick and h_score > 0 and a_score > 0: won = True
-                elif "YOK" in pick and (h_score == 0 or a_score == 0): won = True
-
-                total_bet += 1
-                if won:
-                    total_won += 1
-                    profit = odds - 1.0
-                    total_profit += profit
-                    print(f"[{i+1}] ✅ {home} vs {away} | {pick} ({odds:.2f}) -> WON (+{profit:.2f})")
-                else:
-                    total_profit -= 1.0
-                    print(f"[{i+1}] ❌ {home} vs {away} | {pick} ({odds:.2f}) -> LOST")
-
-        except: pass
-
-    print("\n" + "="*60)
-    print("💰 VALUE SNIPER SONUÇLARI")
-    print("="*60)
-    print(f"Oynanan Bahis: {total_bet}")
-    print(f"Kazanılan: {total_won}")
-    
-    if total_bet > 0:
-        win_rate = (total_won / total_bet) * 100
-        roi = (total_profit / total_bet) * 100
-        print(f"Kazanma Oranı: %{win_rate:.2f}")
-        print(f"Toplam Kâr: {total_profit:.2f} Units")
-        if total_profit > 0: print("🟢 PARA KAZANDIK!")
-        else: print("🔴 PARA KAYBETTİK!")
-    else:
-        print("⚠️ Yeterli VALUE bulunamadı.")
-
-    cur.close()
-    conn.close()
-
-if __name__ == "__main__":
-    run_value_sniper()
@@ -1,136 +0,0 @@
-"""
-VQWEN Full Backtest
-===================
-Tests all 3 VQWEN models (MS, OU25, BTTS) on 1000 historical matches.
-"""
-
-import os
-import sys
-import json
-import pickle
-import pandas as pd
-import numpy as np
-import psycopg2
-from psycopg2.extras import RealDictCursor
-
-AI_DIR = os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__))
-ROOT_DIR = os.path.dirname(AI_DIR)
-PROJECT_ROOT = os.path.dirname(ROOT_DIR)
-
-def get_clean_dsn() -> str:
-    return "postgresql://suggestbet:SuGGesT2026SecuRe@localhost:15432/boilerplate_db"
-
-def run_vqwen_backtest():
-    print("🧠 VQWEN FULL BACKTEST")
-    print("="*60)
-    
-    # Load Models
-    mdir = os.path.join(ROOT_DIR, 'models', 'vqwen')
-    try:
-        with open(os.path.join(mdir, 'vqwen_ms.pkl'), 'rb') as f: model_ms = pickle.load(f)
-        with open(os.path.join(mdir, 'vqwen_ou25.pkl'), 'rb') as f: model_ou = pickle.load(f)
-        with open(os.path.join(mdir, 'vqwen_btts.pkl'), 'rb') as f: model_btts = pickle.load(f)
-        print("✅ VQWEN MS, OU25, BTTS modelleri yüklendi.")
-    except Exception as e:
-        print(f"❌ Model hatası: {e}")
-        return
-
-    with open(os.path.join(PROJECT_ROOT, "top_leagues.json"), 'r') as f:
-        league_ids = tuple(str(lid) for lid in json.load(f))
-
-    dsn = get_clean_dsn()
-    conn = psycopg2.connect(dsn)
-    cur = conn.cursor(cursor_factory=RealDictCursor)
-
-    cur.execute("""
-        SELECT m.id, m.home_team_id, m.away_team_id, m.score_home, m.score_away,
-               t1.name as home_team, t2.name as away_team,
-               (SELECT os.odd_value FROM odd_categories oc JOIN odd_selections os ON os.odd_category_db_id = oc.db_id WHERE oc.match_id = m.id AND oc.name ILIKE 'Maç Sonucu' AND os.name = '1' LIMIT 1) as oh,
-               (SELECT os.odd_value FROM odd_categories oc JOIN odd_selections os ON os.odd_category_db_id = oc.db_id WHERE oc.match_id = m.id AND oc.name ILIKE 'Maç Sonucu' AND os.name = 'X' LIMIT 1) as od,
-               (SELECT os.odd_value FROM odd_categories oc JOIN odd_selections os ON os.odd_category_db_id = oc.db_id WHERE oc.match_id = m.id AND oc.name ILIKE 'Maç Sonucu' AND os.name = '2' LIMIT 1) as oa,
-               COALESCE((SELECT AVG(CASE WHEN m2.home_team_id = m.home_team_id AND m2.score_home > m2.score_away THEN 3 WHEN m2.home_team_id = m.home_team_id AND m2.score_home = m2.score_away THEN 1 ELSE 0 END) FROM matches m2 WHERE m2.home_team_id = m.home_team_id AND m2.status = 'FT' AND m2.mst_utc < m.mst_utc LIMIT 5), 0) as h_form,
-               COALESCE((SELECT AVG(CASE WHEN m2.away_team_id = m.away_team_id AND m2.score_away > m2.score_home THEN 3 WHEN m2.away_team_id = m.away_team_id AND m2.score_away = m2.score_home THEN 1 ELSE 0 END) FROM matches m2 WHERE m2.away_team_id = m.away_team_id AND m2.status = 'FT' AND m2.mst_utc < m.mst_utc LIMIT 5), 0) as a_form,
-               COALESCE((SELECT AVG(m2.score_home) FROM matches m2 WHERE m2.home_team_id = m.home_team_id AND m2.status = 'FT' LIMIT 10), 1.2) as h_sc,
-               COALESCE((SELECT AVG(m2.score_away) FROM matches m2 WHERE m2.away_team_id = m.home_team_id AND m2.status = 'FT' LIMIT 10), 1.2) as h_co,
-               COALESCE((SELECT AVG(m2.score_away) FROM matches m2 WHERE m2.away_team_id = m.away_team_id AND m2.status = 'FT' LIMIT 10), 1.2) as a_sc,
-               COALESCE((SELECT AVG(m2.score_home) FROM matches m2 WHERE m2.home_team_id = m.away_team_id AND m2.status = 'FT' LIMIT 10), 1.2) as a_co
-        FROM matches m
-        LEFT JOIN teams t1 ON m.home_team_id = t1.id
-        LEFT JOIN teams t2 ON m.away_team_id = t2.id
-        WHERE m.league_id IN %s AND m.status = 'FT' AND m.score_home IS NOT NULL
-        ORDER BY m.mst_utc DESC
-        LIMIT 1000
-    """, (league_ids,))
-    
-    rows = cur.fetchall()
-    print(f"📊 {len(rows)} maç analiz ediliyor...")
-
-    results = {'ms': {'bet': 0, 'won': 0, 'profit': 0}, 'ou25': {'bet': 0, 'won': 0, 'profit': 0}, 'btts': {'bet': 0, 'won': 0, 'profit': 0}}
-
-    for row in rows:
-        oh, od, oa = float(row['oh'] or 0), float(row['od'] or 0), float(row['oa'] or 0)
-        if oh <= 1.0 or od <= 1.0 or oa <= 1.0: continue
-
-        h_xg = (float(row['h_sc'] or 1.2) + float(row['a_co'] or 1.2)) / 2
-        a_xg = (float(row['a_sc'] or 1.2) + float(row['h_co'] or 1.2)) / 2
-        h_p = (float(row['h_form'] or 0)*10) + (float(row['h_sc'] or 1.2)*5) - (float(row['h_co'] or 1.2)*5)
-        a_p = (float(row['a_form'] or 0)*10) + (float(row['a_sc'] or 1.2)*5) - (float(row['a_co'] or 1.2)*5)
-        
-        margin = (1/oh) + (1/od) + (1/oa)
-        
-        # MS Prediction
-        f_ms = pd.DataFrame([{'h_form': float(row['h_form']), 'a_form': float(row['a_form']), 'h_xg': h_xg, 'a_xg': a_xg, 
-                              'pow_diff': h_p - a_p, 'imp_h': (1/oh)/margin, 'imp_d': (1/od)/margin, 'imp_a': (1/oa)/margin,
-                              'h_sot': 4.0, 'a_sot': 3.0}])
-        ms_probs = model_ms.predict(f_ms)[0]
-        
-        # MS Value Bet
-        for i, (pick, prob, odd) in enumerate(zip(['1', 'X', '2'], ms_probs, [oh, od, oa])):
-            if odd <= 1.0: continue
-            edge = prob - (1/odd)
-            if edge > 0.05 and prob > 0.50: # Value ve Güven
-                results['ms']['bet'] += 1
-                h, a = row['score_home'], row['score_away']
-                w = (pick=='1' and h>a) or (pick=='X' and h==a) or (pick=='2' and a>h)
-                if w: results['ms']['won'] += 1; results['ms']['profit'] += (odd - 1.0)
-                else: results['ms']['profit'] -= 1.0
-                break
-
-        # OU2.5 Prediction
-        f_ou = pd.DataFrame([{'h_xg': h_xg, 'a_xg': a_xg, 'total_xg': h_xg+a_xg, 'h_sot': 4.0, 'a_sot': 3.0}])
-        p_over = model_ou.predict(f_ou)[0]
-        
-        # OU2.5 Value Bet
-        if p_over > 0.55 and oh > 1.0: # Sadece örnek olarak over > %55 ise
-            results['ou25']['bet'] += 1
-            if (row['score_home'] + row['score_away']) > 2.5: results['ou25']['won'] += 1; results['ou25']['profit'] += 0.85 # Ortalama oran
-            else: results['ou25']['profit'] -= 1.0
-
-        # BTTS Prediction
-        f_btts = pd.DataFrame([{'h_xg': h_xg, 'a_xg': a_xg, 'h_sc': float(row['h_sc']), 'a_sc': float(row['a_sc'])}])
-        p_btts = model_btts.predict(f_btts)[0]
-        
-        # BTTS Value Bet
-        if p_btts > 0.55:
-            results['btts']['bet'] += 1
-            if row['score_home'] > 0 and row['score_away'] > 0: results['btts']['won'] += 1; results['btts']['profit'] += 0.85
-            else: results['btts']['profit'] -= 1.0
-
-    print("\n" + "="*60)
-    print("📊 VQWEN PAZAR BAZLI SONUÇLAR")
-    print("="*60)
-    for mkt in ['ms', 'ou25', 'btts']:
-        r = results[mkt]
-        wr = (r['won'] / r['bet'] * 100) if r['bet'] > 0 else 0
-        print(f"{mkt.upper():<10} Oynanan: {r['bet']:<5} Kazanılan: {r['won']:<5} WR: {wr:.1f}%  Kâr: {r['profit']:+.2f} Units")
-    
-    total_profit = sum(r['profit'] for r in results.values())
-    print(f"\n💰 TOPLAM KÂR: {total_profit:+.2f} Units")
-    if total_profit > 0: print("🟢 PARA KAZANDIK!")
-    else: print("🔴 ZARARDA")
-
-    cur.close()
-    conn.close()
-
-if __name__ == "__main__":
-    run_vqwen_backtest()
@@ -1,141 +0,0 @@
-"""
-VQWEN Deep Backtest
-===================
-Tests the NEW Deep model with player & card data.
-"""
-
-import os
-import sys
-import json
-import pickle
-import pandas as pd
-import numpy as np
-import psycopg2
-from psycopg2.extras import RealDictCursor
-
-AI_DIR = os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__))
-ROOT_DIR = os.path.dirname(AI_DIR)
-PROJECT_ROOT = os.path.dirname(ROOT_DIR)
-
-def get_clean_dsn() -> str:
-    return "postgresql://suggestbet:SuGGesT2026SecuRe@localhost:15432/boilerplate_db"
-
-def run_vqwen_deep_backtest():
-    print("🧠 VQWEN DEEP BACKTEST")
-    print("="*60)
-    
-    # Load Models
-    mdir = os.path.join(ROOT_DIR, 'models', 'vqwen')
-    try:
-        with open(os.path.join(mdir, 'vqwen_ms.pkl'), 'rb') as f: model_ms = pickle.load(f)
-        with open(os.path.join(mdir, 'vqwen_ou25.pkl'), 'rb') as f: model_ou = pickle.load(f)
-        with open(os.path.join(mdir, 'vqwen_btts.pkl'), 'rb') as f: model_btts = pickle.load(f)
-        print("✅ VQWEN Deep modelleri yüklendi.")
-    except Exception as e:
-        print(f"❌ Model hatası: {e}")
-        return
-
-    with open(os.path.join(PROJECT_ROOT, "top_leagues.json"), 'r') as f:
-        league_ids = tuple(str(lid) for lid in json.load(f))
-
-    dsn = get_clean_dsn()
-    conn = psycopg2.connect(dsn)
-    cur = conn.cursor(cursor_factory=RealDictCursor)
-
-    cur.execute("""
-        SELECT m.id, m.home_team_id, m.away_team_id, m.score_home, m.score_away,
-               t1.name as home_team, t2.name as away_team,
-               (SELECT os.odd_value FROM odd_categories oc JOIN odd_selections os ON os.odd_category_db_id = oc.db_id WHERE oc.match_id = m.id AND oc.name ILIKE 'Maç Sonucu' AND os.name = '1' LIMIT 1) as oh,
-               (SELECT os.odd_value FROM odd_categories oc JOIN odd_selections os ON os.odd_category_db_id = oc.db_id WHERE oc.match_id = m.id AND oc.name ILIKE 'Maç Sonucu' AND os.name = 'X' LIMIT 1) as od,
-               (SELECT os.odd_value FROM odd_categories oc JOIN odd_selections os ON os.odd_category_db_id = oc.db_id WHERE oc.match_id = m.id AND oc.name ILIKE 'Maç Sonucu' AND os.name = '2' LIMIT 1) as oa,
-               COALESCE((SELECT AVG(CASE WHEN m2.home_team_id = m.home_team_id AND m2.score_home > m2.score_away THEN 3 WHEN m2.home_team_id = m.home_team_id AND m2.score_home = m2.score_away THEN 1 ELSE 0 END) FROM matches m2 WHERE m2.home_team_id = m.home_team_id AND m2.status = 'FT' AND m2.mst_utc < m.mst_utc LIMIT 5), 0) as h_form,
-               COALESCE((SELECT AVG(CASE WHEN m2.away_team_id = m.away_team_id AND m2.score_away > m2.score_home THEN 3 WHEN m2.away_team_id = m.away_team_id AND m2.score_away = m2.score_home THEN 1 ELSE 0 END) FROM matches m2 WHERE m2.away_team_id = m.away_team_id AND m2.status = 'FT' AND m2.mst_utc < m.mst_utc LIMIT 5), 0) as a_form,
-               COALESCE((SELECT AVG(m2.score_home) FROM matches m2 WHERE m2.home_team_id = m.home_team_id AND m2.status = 'FT' LIMIT 10), 1.2) as h_sc,
-               COALESCE((SELECT AVG(m2.score_away) FROM matches m2 WHERE m2.away_team_id = m.home_team_id AND m2.status = 'FT' LIMIT 10), 1.2) as h_co,
-               COALESCE((SELECT AVG(m2.score_away) FROM matches m2 WHERE m2.away_team_id = m.away_team_id AND m2.status = 'FT' LIMIT 10), 1.2) as a_sc,
-               COALESCE((SELECT AVG(m2.score_home) FROM matches m2 WHERE m2.home_team_id = m.away_team_id AND m2.status = 'FT' LIMIT 10), 1.2) as a_co,
-               COALESCE((SELECT COUNT(*) FROM match_player_participation mp WHERE mp.match_id = m.id AND mp.team_id = m.home_team_id AND mp.is_starting = true), 0) as h_xi,
-               COALESCE((SELECT COUNT(*) FROM match_player_participation mp WHERE mp.match_id = m.id AND mp.team_id = m.away_team_id AND mp.is_starting = true), 0) as a_xi,
-               COALESCE((SELECT COUNT(*) FROM match_player_events mpe WHERE mpe.match_id = m.id AND mpe.event_type = 'card'), 0) as cards
-        FROM matches m
-        LEFT JOIN teams t1 ON m.home_team_id = t1.id
-        LEFT JOIN teams t2 ON m.away_team_id = t2.id
-        WHERE m.league_id IN %s AND m.status = 'FT' AND m.score_home IS NOT NULL
-        ORDER BY m.mst_utc DESC
-        LIMIT 1000
-    """, (league_ids,))
-    
-    rows = cur.fetchall()
-    print(f"📊 {len(rows)} maç analiz ediliyor...")
-
-    results = {'ms': {'bet': 0, 'won': 0, 'profit': 0}, 'ou25': {'bet': 0, 'won': 0, 'profit': 0}, 'btts': {'bet': 0, 'won': 0, 'profit': 0}}
-
-    for row in rows:
-        oh = float(row['oh'] or 0)
-        od = float(row['od'] or 0)
-        oa = float(row['oa'] or 0)
-        if oh <= 1.0 or od <= 1.0 or oa <= 1.0: continue
-
-        h_xg = (float(row['h_sc'] or 1.2) + float(row['a_co'] or 1.2)) / 2
-        a_xg = (float(row['a_sc'] or 1.2) + float(row['h_co'] or 1.2)) / 2
-        h_p = (float(row['h_form'] or 0)*10) + (float(row['h_sc'] or 1.2)*5) - (float(row['h_co'] or 1.2)*5)
-        a_p = (float(row['a_form'] or 0)*10) + (float(row['a_sc'] or 1.2)*5) - (float(row['a_co'] or 1.2)*5)
-        
-        margin = (1/oh) + (1/od) + (1/oa)
-        h_sot, a_sot = 4.0, 3.0
-        
-        # Features
-        f = pd.DataFrame([{
-            'h_form': float(row['h_form']), 'a_form': float(row['a_form']),
-            'h_xg': h_xg, 'a_xg': a_xg, 'pow_diff': h_p - a_p,
-            'imp_h': (1/oh)/margin, 'imp_d': (1/od)/margin, 'imp_a': (1/oa)/margin,
-            'h_sot': h_sot, 'a_sot': a_sot,
-            'h_xi': float(row['h_xi']), 'a_xi': float(row['a_xi']),
-            'xi_diff': float(row['h_xi'] - row['a_xi']),
-            'cards': float(row['cards'])
-        }])
-
-        # MS
-        ms_probs = model_ms.predict(f)[0]
-        for i, (pick, prob, odd) in enumerate(zip(['1', 'X', '2'], ms_probs, [oh, od, oa])):
-            if odd <= 1.0: continue
-            edge = prob - (1/odd)
-            if edge > 0.05 and prob > 0.50:
-                results['ms']['bet'] += 1
-                h, a = row['score_home'], row['score_away']
-                w = (pick=='1' and h>a) or (pick=='X' and h==a) or (pick=='2' and a>h)
-                if w: results['ms']['won'] += 1; results['ms']['profit'] += (odd - 1.0)
-                else: results['ms']['profit'] -= 1.0
-                break
-
-        # OU2.5
-        p_over = float(model_ou.predict(f)[0])
-        if p_over > 0.55:
-            results['ou25']['bet'] += 1
-            if (row['score_home'] + row['score_away']) > 2.5: results['ou25']['won'] += 1; results['ou25']['profit'] += 0.85
-            else: results['ou25']['profit'] -= 1.0
-
-        # BTTS
-        p_btts = float(model_btts.predict(f)[0])
-        if p_btts > 0.55:
-            results['btts']['bet'] += 1
-            if row['score_home'] > 0 and row['score_away'] > 0: results['btts']['won'] += 1; results['btts']['profit'] += 0.85
-            else: results['btts']['profit'] -= 1.0
-
-    print("\n" + "="*60)
-    print("📊 VQWEN DEEP SONUÇLAR")
-    print("="*60)
-    for mkt in ['ms', 'ou25', 'btts']:
-        r = results[mkt]
-        wr = (r['won'] / r['bet'] * 100) if r['bet'] > 0 else 0
-        print(f"{mkt.upper():<10} Oyn: {r['bet']:<5} Kaz: {r['won']:<5} WR: {wr:.1f}%  Kâr: {r['profit']:+.2f}")
-    
-    total = sum(r['profit'] for r in results.values())
-    print(f"\n💰 TOPLAM: {total:+.2f} Units")
-    print("🟢 PARA KAZANDIK!" if total > 0 else "🔴 ZARARDA")
-
-    cur.close()
-    conn.close()
-
-if __name__ == "__main__":
-    run_vqwen_deep_backtest()
@@ -1,159 +0,0 @@
-"""
-VQWEN Final Backtest
-====================
-Tests the Final Model (ELO + Rest + Context).
-"""
-
-import os
-import sys
-import json
-import pickle
-import pandas as pd
-import numpy as np
-import psycopg2
-from psycopg2.extras import RealDictCursor
-
-AI_DIR = os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__))
-ROOT_DIR = os.path.dirname(AI_DIR)
-PROJECT_ROOT = os.path.dirname(ROOT_DIR)
-
-def get_clean_dsn() -> str:
-    return "postgresql://suggestbet:SuGGesT2026SecuRe@localhost:15432/boilerplate_db"
-
-def run_final_backtest():
-    print("🧠 VQWEN FINAL BACKTEST (ELO + REST)")
-    print("="*60)
-    
-    # Load Models
-    mdir = os.path.join(ROOT_DIR, 'models', 'vqwen')
-    try:
-        with open(os.path.join(mdir, 'vqwen_ms.pkl'), 'rb') as f: model_ms = pickle.load(f)
-        with open(os.path.join(mdir, 'vqwen_ou25.pkl'), 'rb') as f: model_ou = pickle.load(f)
-        with open(os.path.join(mdir, 'vqwen_btts.pkl'), 'rb') as f: model_btts = pickle.load(f)
-        print("✅ VQWEN Final modelleri yüklendi.")
-    except Exception as e:
-        print(f"❌ Model hatası: {e}")
-        return
-
-    with open(os.path.join(PROJECT_ROOT, "top_leagues.json"), 'r') as f:
-        league_ids = tuple(str(lid) for lid in json.load(f))
-
-    dsn = get_clean_dsn()
-    conn = psycopg2.connect(dsn)
-    cur = conn.cursor(cursor_factory=RealDictCursor)
-
-    cur.execute("""
-        SELECT m.id, m.home_team_id, m.away_team_id, m.score_home, m.score_away,
-               m.mst_utc,
-               t1.name as home_team, t2.name as away_team,
-               maf.home_elo, maf.away_elo,
-               COALESCE((SELECT AVG(m2.score_home) FROM matches m2 WHERE m2.home_team_id = m.home_team_id AND m2.status = 'FT' AND m2.mst_utc < m.mst_utc), 1.2) as h_home_goals,
-               COALESCE((SELECT AVG(m2.score_away) FROM matches m2 WHERE m2.away_team_id = m.away_team_id AND m2.status = 'FT' AND m2.mst_utc < m.mst_utc), 1.2) as a_away_goals,
-               COALESCE(EXTRACT(EPOCH FROM (to_timestamp(m.mst_utc/1000) - (SELECT MAX(to_timestamp(m2.mst_utc/1000)) FROM matches m2 WHERE m2.home_team_id = m.home_team_id AND m2.status = 'FT' AND m2.mst_utc < m.mst_utc)) / 86400), 7) as h_rest,
-               COALESCE(EXTRACT(EPOCH FROM (to_timestamp(m.mst_utc/1000) - (SELECT MAX(to_timestamp(m2.mst_utc/1000)) FROM matches m2 WHERE m2.away_team_id = m.away_team_id AND m2.status = 'FT' AND m2.mst_utc < m.mst_utc)) / 86400), 7) as a_rest,
-               COALESCE((SELECT COUNT(*) FROM match_player_participation mp WHERE mp.match_id = m.id AND mp.team_id = m.home_team_id AND mp.is_starting = true), 11) as h_xi,
-               COALESCE((SELECT COUNT(*) FROM match_player_participation mp WHERE mp.match_id = m.id AND mp.team_id = m.away_team_id AND mp.is_starting = true), 11) as a_xi,
-               COALESCE((SELECT COUNT(*) FROM match_player_events mpe WHERE mpe.match_id = m.id AND mpe.event_type = 'card'), 4) as cards,
-               (SELECT os.odd_value FROM odd_categories oc JOIN odd_selections os ON os.odd_category_db_id = oc.db_id WHERE oc.match_id = m.id AND oc.name ILIKE 'Maç Sonucu' AND os.name = '1' LIMIT 1) as oh,
-               (SELECT os.odd_value FROM odd_categories oc JOIN odd_selections os ON os.odd_category_db_id = oc.db_id WHERE oc.match_id = m.id AND oc.name ILIKE 'Maç Sonucu' AND os.name = 'X' LIMIT 1) as od,
-               (SELECT os.odd_value FROM odd_categories oc JOIN odd_selections os ON os.odd_category_db_id = oc.db_id WHERE oc.match_id = m.id AND oc.name ILIKE 'Maç Sonucu' AND os.name = '2' LIMIT 1) as oa
-        FROM matches m
-        LEFT JOIN teams t1 ON m.home_team_id = t1.id
-        LEFT JOIN teams t2 ON m.away_team_id = t2.id
-        LEFT JOIN football_ai_features maf ON maf.match_id = m.id
-        WHERE m.league_id IN %s AND m.status = 'FT' AND m.score_home IS NOT NULL
-        ORDER BY m.mst_utc DESC
-        LIMIT 1000
-    """, (league_ids,))
-    
-    rows = cur.fetchall()
-    print(f"📊 {len(rows)} maç analiz ediliyor...")
-
-    results = {'ms': {'bet': 0, 'won': 0, 'profit': 0}, 'ou25': {'bet': 0, 'won': 0, 'profit': 0}, 'btts': {'bet': 0, 'won': 0, 'profit': 0}}
-
-    for row in rows:
-        oh = float(row['oh'] or 0)
-        od = float(row['od'] or 0)
-        oa = float(row['oa'] or 0)
-        if oh <= 1.0 or od <= 1.0 or oa <= 1.0: continue
-
-        # Features
-        h_elo = float(row['home_elo'] or 1500)
-        a_elo = float(row['away_elo'] or 1500)
-        h_home_goals = float(row['h_home_goals'] or 1.2)
-        a_away_goals = float(row['a_away_goals'] or 1.2)
-        h_rest = float(row['h_rest'] or 7)
-        a_rest = float(row['a_rest'] or 7)
-        h_xi = float(row['h_xi'] or 11)
-        a_xi = float(row['a_xi'] or 11)
-        cards = float(row['cards'] or 4)
-
-        def fatigue(rest):
-            if rest < 3: return 0.85
-            if rest < 5: return 0.95
-            return 1.0
-
-        h_fat = fatigue(h_rest)
-        a_fat = fatigue(a_rest)
-
-        h_xg = h_home_goals * h_fat
-        a_xg = a_away_goals * a_fat
-        total_xg = h_xg + a_xg
-        
-        margin = (1/oh) + (1/od) + (1/oa)
-        f = pd.DataFrame([{
-            'elo_diff': h_elo - a_elo,
-            'h_xg': h_xg, 'a_xg': a_xg,
-            'total_xg': total_xg,
-            'pow_diff': (h_elo/100)*h_fat - (a_elo/100)*a_fat,
-            'rest_diff': h_rest - a_rest,
-            'h_fatigue': h_fat, 'a_fatigue': a_fat,
-            'imp_h': (1/oh)/margin, 'imp_d': (1/od)/margin, 'imp_a': (1/oa)/margin,
-            'h_xi': h_xi, 'a_xi': a_xi,
-            'cards': cards
-        }])
-
-        # MS
-        ms_probs = model_ms.predict(f)[0]
-        for i, (pick, prob, odd) in enumerate(zip(['1', 'X', '2'], ms_probs, [oh, od, oa])):
-            if odd <= 1.0: continue
-            edge = prob - (1/odd)
-            if edge > 0.05 and prob > 0.45:
-                results['ms']['bet'] += 1
-                h, a = row['score_home'], row['score_away']
-                w = (pick=='1' and h>a) or (pick=='X' and h==a) or (pick=='2' and a>h)
-                if w: results['ms']['won'] += 1; results['ms']['profit'] += (odd - 1.0)
-                else: results['ms']['profit'] -= 1.0
-                break
-
-        # OU2.5
-        p_over = float(model_ou.predict(f)[0])
-        if p_over > 0.55:
-            results['ou25']['bet'] += 1
-            if (row['score_home'] + row['score_away']) > 2.5: results['ou25']['won'] += 1; results['ou25']['profit'] += 0.85
-            else: results['ou25']['profit'] -= 1.0
-
-        # BTTS
-        p_btts = float(model_btts.predict(f)[0])
-        if p_btts > 0.55:
-            results['btts']['bet'] += 1
-            if row['score_home'] > 0 and row['score_away'] > 0: results['btts']['won'] += 1; results['btts']['profit'] += 0.85
-            else: results['btts']['profit'] -= 1.0
-
-    print("\n" + "="*60)
-    print("📊 VQWEN FINAL SONUÇLAR")
-    print("="*60)
-    for mkt in ['ms', 'ou25', 'btts']:
-        r = results[mkt]
-        wr = (r['won'] / r['bet'] * 100) if r['bet'] > 0 else 0
-        print(f"{mkt.upper():<10} Oyn: {r['bet']:<5} Kaz: {r['won']:<5} WR: {wr:.1f}%  Kâr: {r['profit']:+.2f}")
-    
-    total = sum(r['profit'] for r in results.values())
-    print(f"\n💰 TOPLAM: {total:+.2f} Units")
-    print("🟢 PARA KAZANDIK!" if total > 0 else "🔴 ZARARDA")
-
-    cur.close()
-    conn.close()
-
-if __name__ == "__main__":
-    run_final_backtest()
@@ -1,182 +0,0 @@
-"""
-VQWEN v3 Shared-Contract Backtest
-=================================
-
-Evaluates the retrained VQWEN models on the temporal validation slice using
-the exact same pre-match feature contract as training/runtime.
-"""
-
-from __future__ import annotations
-
-import json
-import os
-import pickle
-import sys
-from pathlib import Path
-
-import numpy as np
-import pandas as pd
-import psycopg2
-from dotenv import load_dotenv
-
-AI_DIR = Path(__file__).resolve().parent
-ENGINE_DIR = AI_DIR.parent
-REPO_DIR = ENGINE_DIR.parent
-MODELS_DIR = ENGINE_DIR / "models" / "vqwen"
-
-if str(ENGINE_DIR) not in sys.path:
-    sys.path.insert(0, str(ENGINE_DIR))
-
-from features.vqwen_contract import FEATURE_COLUMNS  # noqa: E402
-from train_vqwen_v3 import (  # noqa: E402
-    _enrich_pre_match_context,
-    _fetch_dataframe,
-    _prepare_features,
-    _temporal_split,
-    load_top_league_ids,
-)
-
-
-def _load_env() -> None:
-    load_dotenv(REPO_DIR / ".env", override=False)
-    load_dotenv(ENGINE_DIR / ".env", override=False)
-
-
-def get_clean_dsn() -> str:
-    _load_env()
-    raw = os.getenv("DATABASE_URL", "").strip().strip('"').strip("'")
-    if not raw:
-        raise RuntimeError("DATABASE_URL is missing.")
-    return raw.split("?", 1)[0]
-
-
-def _accuracy(y_true: np.ndarray, y_pred: np.ndarray) -> float:
-    if len(y_true) == 0:
-        return 0.0
-    return float((y_true == y_pred).mean())
-
-
-def _binary_metrics(prob: np.ndarray, y_true: np.ndarray) -> tuple[float, float]:
-    pred = (prob >= 0.5).astype(int)
-    acc = _accuracy(y_true, pred)
-    brier = float(np.mean((prob - y_true) ** 2)) if len(y_true) else 1.0
-    return acc, brier
-
-
-def _multiclass_brier(prob: np.ndarray, y_true: np.ndarray, n_classes: int = 3) -> float:
-    if len(y_true) == 0:
-        return 1.0
-    target = np.zeros((len(y_true), n_classes), dtype=np.float64)
-    target[np.arange(len(y_true)), y_true.astype(int)] = 1.0
-    return float(np.mean(np.sum((prob - target) ** 2, axis=1)))
-
-
-def _band_label(probability: float) -> str:
-    if probability >= 0.70:
-        return "HIGH"
-    if probability >= 0.60:
-        return "MEDIUM"
-    if probability >= 0.50:
-        return "LOW"
-    return "NO_BET"
-
-
-def _summarize_bands(
-    name: str,
-    confidence: np.ndarray,
-    is_correct: np.ndarray,
-) -> list[str]:
-    lines: list[str] = []
-    for band in ("HIGH", "MEDIUM", "LOW"):
-        mask = np.array([_band_label(float(p)) == band for p in confidence], dtype=bool)
-        count = int(mask.sum())
-        accuracy = float(is_correct[mask].mean()) if count else 0.0
-        avg_conf = float(confidence[mask].mean()) if count else 0.0
-        lines.append(
-            f"{name} {band:<6} count={count:<4} accuracy={accuracy*100:5.1f}% avg_conf={avg_conf*100:5.1f}%"
-        )
-    return lines
-
-
-def run_v3_backtest() -> None:
-    print("VQWEN v3 SHARED-CONTRACT BACKTEST")
-    print("=" * 60)
-
-    league_ids = load_top_league_ids()
-    dsn = get_clean_dsn()
-
-    with psycopg2.connect(dsn) as conn:
-        with conn.cursor() as cur:
-            df = _fetch_dataframe(cur, league_ids)
-            df = _enrich_pre_match_context(cur, df)
-            df = _prepare_features(df)
-
-    train_df, valid_df = _temporal_split(df)
-    print(f"Toplam ornek: {len(df)} | Train: {len(train_df)} | Valid: {len(valid_df)}")
-
-    with (MODELS_DIR / "vqwen_ms.pkl").open("rb") as handle:
-        model_ms = pickle.load(handle)
-    with (MODELS_DIR / "vqwen_ou25.pkl").open("rb") as handle:
-        model_ou25 = pickle.load(handle)
-    with (MODELS_DIR / "vqwen_btts.pkl").open("rb") as handle:
-        model_btts = pickle.load(handle)
-
-    X_valid = valid_df[FEATURE_COLUMNS]
-    y_ms = valid_df["t_ms"].to_numpy(dtype=np.int64)
-    y_ou25 = valid_df["t_ou"].to_numpy(dtype=np.int64)
-    y_btts = valid_df["t_btts"].to_numpy(dtype=np.int64)
-
-    ms_prob = np.asarray(model_ms.predict(X_valid), dtype=np.float64)
-    ou25_prob = np.asarray(model_ou25.predict(X_valid), dtype=np.float64).reshape(-1)
-    btts_prob = np.asarray(model_btts.predict(X_valid), dtype=np.float64).reshape(-1)
-
-    ms_pred = np.argmax(ms_prob, axis=1)
-    ms_conf = np.max(ms_prob, axis=1)
-    ms_correct = (ms_pred == y_ms).astype(np.int64)
-
-    ou25_pred = (ou25_prob >= 0.5).astype(np.int64)
-    ou25_conf = np.where(ou25_prob >= 0.5, ou25_prob, 1.0 - ou25_prob)
-    ou25_correct = (ou25_pred == y_ou25).astype(np.int64)
-
-    btts_pred = (btts_prob >= 0.5).astype(np.int64)
-    btts_conf = np.where(btts_prob >= 0.5, btts_prob, 1.0 - btts_prob)
-    btts_correct = (btts_pred == y_btts).astype(np.int64)
-
-    ms_acc = _accuracy(y_ms, ms_pred)
-    ou25_acc, ou25_brier = _binary_metrics(ou25_prob, y_ou25)
-    btts_acc, btts_brier = _binary_metrics(btts_prob, y_btts)
-    ms_brier = _multiclass_brier(ms_prob, y_ms)
-
-    print("\nGenel metrikler")
-    print(f"MS accuracy   : {ms_acc*100:.2f}% | multiclass_brier={ms_brier:.4f}")
-    print(f"OU25 accuracy : {ou25_acc*100:.2f}% | brier={ou25_brier:.4f}")
-    print(f"BTTS accuracy : {btts_acc*100:.2f}% | brier={btts_brier:.4f}")
-
-    print("\nConfidence band")
-    for line in _summarize_bands("MS", ms_conf, ms_correct):
-        print(line)
-    for line in _summarize_bands("OU25", ou25_conf, ou25_correct):
-        print(line)
-    for line in _summarize_bands("BTTS", btts_conf, btts_correct):
-        print(line)
-
-    summary = {
-        "validation_samples": int(len(valid_df)),
-        "metrics": {
-            "ms_accuracy": round(ms_acc, 4),
-            "ms_brier": round(ms_brier, 4),
-            "ou25_accuracy": round(ou25_acc, 4),
-            "ou25_brier": round(ou25_brier, 4),
-            "btts_accuracy": round(btts_acc, 4),
-            "btts_brier": round(btts_brier, 4),
-        },
-    }
-    (MODELS_DIR / "vqwen_backtest_v3_summary.json").write_text(
-        json.dumps(summary, indent=2),
-        encoding="utf-8",
-    )
-    print("\nKaydedildi: vqwen_backtest_v3_summary.json")
-
-
-if __name__ == "__main__":
-    run_v3_backtest()
@@ -59,7 +59,7 @@ def fetch_matches(conn, sport: str):


 def flush_features_batch(conn, rows, dry_run: bool, sport: str = 'football'):
-    """Bulk upsert a batch of (match_id, home_elo, away_elo) into sport-partitioned ai_features table."""
+    """Bulk upsert ELO features into sport-partitioned ai_features table."""
    if not rows or dry_run:
        return

@@ -70,19 +70,27 @@ def flush_features_batch(conn, rows, dry_run: bool, sport: str = 'football'):
            f"""
            INSERT INTO {table_name}
                (match_id, home_elo, away_elo,
+                 home_home_elo, away_away_elo,
+                 home_form_elo, away_form_elo,
+                 elo_diff,
                 home_form_score, away_form_score,
                 missing_players_impact, calculator_ver, updated_at)
            VALUES %s
            ON CONFLICT (match_id) DO UPDATE SET
                home_elo             = EXCLUDED.home_elo,
                away_elo             = EXCLUDED.away_elo,
+                home_home_elo        = EXCLUDED.home_home_elo,
+                away_away_elo        = EXCLUDED.away_away_elo,
+                home_form_elo        = EXCLUDED.home_form_elo,
+                away_form_elo        = EXCLUDED.away_form_elo,
+                elo_diff             = EXCLUDED.elo_diff,
                home_form_score      = EXCLUDED.home_form_score,
                away_form_score      = EXCLUDED.away_form_score,
                calculator_ver       = EXCLUDED.calculator_ver,
                updated_at           = EXCLUDED.updated_at
            """,
            rows,
-            template="(%s, %s, %s, %s, %s, 0.0, %s, NOW())",
+            template="(%s, %s, %s, %s, %s, %s, %s, %s, %s, %s, 0.0, %s, NOW())",
            page_size=500,
        )
    conn.commit()
@@ -136,16 +144,24 @@ def backfill(sport: str, batch_size: int, dry_run: bool):
        if not home_id or not away_id:
            continue

-        # Snapshot PRE-match ELO
+        # Snapshot PRE-match ELO (all dimensions)
        home_rating = elo.get_or_create_rating(home_id, h_name or "")
        away_rating = elo.get_or_create_rating(away_id, a_name or "")

+        h_overall = round(home_rating.overall_elo, 2)
+        a_overall = round(away_rating.overall_elo, 2)
+
        feature_buf.append((
            match_id,
-            round(home_rating.overall_elo, 2),
-            round(away_rating.overall_elo, 2),
-            round(form_to_score(home_rating.recent_form), 2),
-            round(form_to_score(away_rating.recent_form), 2),
+            h_overall,                                          # home_elo
+            a_overall,                                          # away_elo
+            round(home_rating.home_elo, 2),                     # home_home_elo
+            round(away_rating.away_elo, 2),                     # away_away_elo
+            round(home_rating.form_elo, 2),                     # home_form_elo
+            round(away_rating.form_elo, 2),                     # away_form_elo
+            round(h_overall - a_overall, 2),                    # elo_diff
+            round(form_to_score(home_rating.recent_form), 2),   # home_form_score
+            round(form_to_score(away_rating.recent_form), 2),   # away_form_score
            CALCULATOR_VER,
        ))

@@ -0,0 +1,459 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env python3
+"""
+AI Features Full Enrichment Script
+====================================
+Fills empty/default columns in football_ai_features that were not populated
+by the original elo_backfill_v1 script.
+
+Enriches: H2H, referee, team_stats, league_averages, form_streaks,
+          rolling_goals, implied_odds, and clean_sheet/scoring rates.
+
+Usage:
+    python scripts/enrich_ai_features.py                          # enrich all
+    python scripts/enrich_ai_features.py --batch-size 500         # smaller batches
+    python scripts/enrich_ai_features.py --dry-run                # preview only
+    python scripts/enrich_ai_features.py --force                  # re-enrich all rows
+    python scripts/enrich_ai_features.py --limit 1000             # process N rows max
+
+Designed to be idempotent: uses ON CONFLICT upserts, skips already-enriched rows.
+"""
+
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import os
+import sys
+import time
+import argparse
+from typing import Any, Dict, List, Optional, Tuple
+
+# Add ai-engine root to path
+sys.path.insert(0, os.path.dirname(os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__))))
+
+import psycopg2
+from psycopg2.extras import RealDictCursor, execute_values
+
+from data.db import get_clean_dsn
+from services.feature_enrichment import FeatureEnrichmentService
+
+# ────────────────────────── constants ──────────────────────────
+
+CALCULATOR_VER = 'enrichment_v2.0'
+DEFAULT_BATCH_SIZE = 200
+
+
+# ────────────────────────── helpers ────────────────────────────
+
+def fetch_unenriched_matches(
+    conn: psycopg2.extensions.connection,
+    force: bool = False,
+    limit: Optional[int] = None,
+) -> List[Dict[str, Any]]:
+    """
+    Fetch matches from football_ai_features that still have default values
+    in the enrichment columns (h2h_total=0 AND referee_avg_cards=0).
+
+    If force=True, fetches ALL rows regardless of current state.
+    """
+    with conn.cursor(cursor_factory=RealDictCursor) as cur:
+        where_clause = "WHERE 1=1" if force else (
+            "WHERE (faf.h2h_total = 0 AND faf.referee_avg_cards = 0)"
+        )
+        limit_clause = f"LIMIT {limit}" if limit else ""
+
+        cur.execute(f"""
+            SELECT
+                faf.match_id,
+                m.home_team_id,
+                m.away_team_id,
+                m.mst_utc,
+                m.league_id,
+                m.score_home,
+                m.score_away
+            FROM football_ai_features faf
+            JOIN matches m ON m.id = faf.match_id
+            WHERE m.status = 'FT'
+              AND m.score_home IS NOT NULL
+              AND m.sport = 'football'
+              AND ({where_clause.replace('WHERE ', '')})
+            ORDER BY m.mst_utc ASC
+            {limit_clause}
+        """)
+        return cur.fetchall()
+
+
+def fetch_referee_for_match(
+    cur: RealDictCursor,
+    match_id: str,
+) -> Optional[str]:
+    """Get the head referee name for a match from match_officials."""
+    try:
+        cur.execute("""
+            SELECT mo.name
+            FROM match_officials mo
+            WHERE mo.match_id = %s
+              AND mo.role_id = 1
+            LIMIT 1
+        """, (match_id,))
+        row = cur.fetchone()
+        return row['name'] if row else None
+    except Exception:
+        return None
+
+
+def fetch_implied_odds(
+    cur: RealDictCursor,
+    match_id: str,
+) -> Dict[str, float]:
+    """Get implied probabilities from odd_categories + odd_selections."""
+    defaults = {
+        'implied_home': 0.33,
+        'implied_draw': 0.33,
+        'implied_away': 0.33,
+        'implied_over25': 0.50,
+        'implied_btts_yes': 0.50,
+        'odds_overround': 0.0,
+    }
+    try:
+        cur.execute("""
+            SELECT oc.name AS cat_name, os.name AS sel_name, os.odd_value
+            FROM odd_selections os
+            JOIN odd_categories oc ON os.odd_category_db_id = oc.db_id
+            WHERE oc.match_id = %s
+        """, (match_id,))
+        rows = cur.fetchall()
+    except Exception:
+        return defaults
+
+    odds: Dict[str, float] = {}
+    for row in rows:
+        try:
+            cat = (row.get('cat_name') or '').lower().strip()
+            sel = (row.get('sel_name') or '').strip()
+            val = float(row.get('odd_value', 0))
+            if val <= 0:
+                continue
+
+            if cat == 'maç sonucu':
+                if sel == '1':
+                    odds['ms_h'] = val
+                elif sel in ('0', 'X'):
+                    odds['ms_d'] = val
+                elif sel == '2':
+                    odds['ms_a'] = val
+            elif cat == '2,5 alt/üst':
+                if 'üst' in sel.lower():
+                    odds['ou25_o'] = val
+                elif 'alt' in sel.lower():
+                    odds['ou25_u'] = val
+            elif cat == 'karşılıklı gol':
+                if 'var' in sel.lower():
+                    odds['btts_y'] = val
+                elif 'yok' in sel.lower():
+                    odds['btts_n'] = val
+        except (ValueError, TypeError):
+            continue
+
+    # Compute implied probabilities
+    ms_h = odds.get('ms_h', 0)
+    ms_d = odds.get('ms_d', 0)
+    ms_a = odds.get('ms_a', 0)
+
+    if ms_h > 1.0 and ms_d > 1.0 and ms_a > 1.0:
+        raw_sum = 1 / ms_h + 1 / ms_d + 1 / ms_a
+        overround = raw_sum - 1.0
+        defaults['implied_home'] = round((1 / ms_h) / raw_sum, 4)
+        defaults['implied_draw'] = round((1 / ms_d) / raw_sum, 4)
+        defaults['implied_away'] = round((1 / ms_a) / raw_sum, 4)
+        defaults['odds_overround'] = round(overround, 4)
+
+    ou25_o = odds.get('ou25_o', 0)
+    ou25_u = odds.get('ou25_u', 0)
+    if ou25_o > 1.0 and ou25_u > 1.0:
+        raw_sum = 1 / ou25_o + 1 / ou25_u
+        defaults['implied_over25'] = round((1 / ou25_o) / raw_sum, 4)
+
+    btts_y = odds.get('btts_y', 0)
+    btts_n = odds.get('btts_n', 0)
+    if btts_y > 1.0 and btts_n > 1.0:
+        raw_sum = 1 / btts_y + 1 / btts_n
+        defaults['implied_btts_yes'] = round((1 / btts_y) / raw_sum, 4)
+
+    return defaults
+
+
+def enrich_single_match(
+    enrichment: FeatureEnrichmentService,
+    cur: RealDictCursor,
+    match: Dict[str, Any],
+) -> Dict[str, Any]:
+    """
+    Compute all enrichment features for a single match and return
+    a dict ready for DB upsert.
+    """
+    match_id = match['match_id']
+    home_id = str(match['home_team_id'])
+    away_id = str(match['away_team_id'])
+    mst_utc = int(match['mst_utc']) if match['mst_utc'] else 0
+    league_id = str(match['league_id']) if match['league_id'] else None
+
+    # 1. Team stats
+    home_stats = enrichment.compute_team_stats(cur, home_id, mst_utc)
+    away_stats = enrichment.compute_team_stats(cur, away_id, mst_utc)
+
+    # 2. H2H
+    h2h = enrichment.compute_h2h(cur, home_id, away_id, mst_utc)
+
+    # 3. Form & streaks
+    home_form = enrichment.compute_form_streaks(cur, home_id, mst_utc)
+    away_form = enrichment.compute_form_streaks(cur, away_id, mst_utc)
+
+    # 4. Referee
+    referee_name = fetch_referee_for_match(cur, match_id)
+    referee = enrichment.compute_referee_stats(cur, referee_name, mst_utc)
+
+    # 5. League averages
+    league = enrichment.compute_league_averages(cur, league_id, mst_utc)
+
+    # 6. Rolling stats (for goals avg)
+    home_rolling = enrichment.compute_rolling_stats(cur, home_id, mst_utc)
+    away_rolling = enrichment.compute_rolling_stats(cur, away_id, mst_utc)
+
+    # 7. Implied odds
+    implied = fetch_implied_odds(cur, match_id)
+
+    return {
+        'match_id': match_id,
+        # Team stats
+        'home_avg_possession': round(home_stats['avg_possession'], 2),
+        'away_avg_possession': round(away_stats['avg_possession'], 2),
+        'home_avg_shots_on_target': round(home_stats['avg_shots_on_target'], 2),
+        'away_avg_shots_on_target': round(away_stats['avg_shots_on_target'], 2),
+        'home_shot_conversion': round(home_stats['shot_conversion'], 4),
+        'away_shot_conversion': round(away_stats['shot_conversion'], 4),
+        'home_avg_corners': round(home_stats['avg_corners'], 2),
+        'away_avg_corners': round(away_stats['avg_corners'], 2),
+        # H2H
+        'h2h_total': h2h['total_matches'],
+        'h2h_home_win_rate': round(h2h['home_win_rate'], 4),
+        'h2h_avg_goals': round(h2h['avg_goals'], 2),
+        'h2h_over25_rate': round(h2h['over25_rate'], 4),
+        'h2h_btts_rate': round(h2h['btts_rate'], 4),
+        # Form
+        'home_clean_sheet_rate': round(home_form['clean_sheet_rate'], 4),
+        'away_clean_sheet_rate': round(away_form['clean_sheet_rate'], 4),
+        'home_scoring_rate': round(home_form['scoring_rate'], 4),
+        'away_scoring_rate': round(away_form['scoring_rate'], 4),
+        'home_win_streak': home_form['winning_streak'],
+        'away_win_streak': away_form['winning_streak'],
+        # Rolling goals
+        'home_goals_avg_5': round(home_rolling['rolling5_goals'], 2),
+        'away_goals_avg_5': round(away_rolling['rolling5_goals'], 2),
+        'home_conceded_avg_5': round(home_rolling['rolling5_conceded'], 2),
+        'away_conceded_avg_5': round(away_rolling['rolling5_conceded'], 2),
+        # Referee
+        'referee_avg_cards': round(referee['cards_total'], 2),
+        'referee_home_bias': round(referee['home_bias'], 4),
+        'referee_avg_goals': round(referee['avg_goals'], 2),
+        # League
+        'league_avg_goals': round(league['avg_goals'], 2),
+        'league_home_win_pct': round(league['home_win_rate'], 4),
+        'league_over25_pct': round(league['ou25_rate'], 4),
+        # Implied odds
+        'implied_home': implied['implied_home'],
+        'implied_draw': implied['implied_draw'],
+        'implied_away': implied['implied_away'],
+        'implied_over25': implied['implied_over25'],
+        'implied_btts_yes': implied['implied_btts_yes'],
+        'odds_overround': implied['odds_overround'],
+        # Missing players impact — default (no lineup data for historical)
+        'missing_players_impact': 0.0,
+        # Version
+        'calculator_ver': CALCULATOR_VER,
+    }
+
+
+def flush_enrichment_batch(
+    conn: psycopg2.extensions.connection,
+    rows: List[Dict[str, Any]],
+    dry_run: bool,
+) -> int:
+    """Bulk upsert enriched features into football_ai_features."""
+    if not rows or dry_run:
+        return 0
+
+    columns = [
+        'match_id',
+        'home_avg_possession', 'away_avg_possession',
+        'home_avg_shots_on_target', 'away_avg_shots_on_target',
+        'home_shot_conversion', 'away_shot_conversion',
+        'home_avg_corners', 'away_avg_corners',
+        'h2h_total', 'h2h_home_win_rate', 'h2h_avg_goals',
+        'h2h_over25_rate', 'h2h_btts_rate',
+        'home_clean_sheet_rate', 'away_clean_sheet_rate',
+        'home_scoring_rate', 'away_scoring_rate',
+        'home_win_streak', 'away_win_streak',
+        'home_goals_avg_5', 'away_goals_avg_5',
+        'home_conceded_avg_5', 'away_conceded_avg_5',
+        'referee_avg_cards', 'referee_home_bias', 'referee_avg_goals',
+        'league_avg_goals', 'league_home_win_pct', 'league_over25_pct',
+        'implied_home', 'implied_draw', 'implied_away',
+        'implied_over25', 'implied_btts_yes', 'odds_overround',
+        'missing_players_impact', 'calculator_ver',
+    ]
+
+    # Build update SET clause (skip match_id)
+    update_cols = [c for c in columns if c != 'match_id']
+    set_clause = ', '.join(f'{c} = EXCLUDED.{c}' for c in update_cols)
+
+    placeholders = ', '.join(['%s'] * len(columns))
+    values = [
+        tuple(row[c] for c in columns)
+        for row in rows
+    ]
+
+    with conn.cursor() as cur:
+        execute_values(
+            cur,
+            f"""
+            INSERT INTO football_ai_features ({', '.join(columns)})
+            VALUES %s
+            ON CONFLICT (match_id) DO UPDATE SET
+                {set_clause},
+                updated_at = NOW()
+            """,
+            values,
+            template=f"({placeholders})",
+            page_size=200,
+        )
+    conn.commit()
+    return len(rows)
+
+
+# ────────────────────────── main ───────────────────────────────
+
+def run_enrichment(
+    batch_size: int,
+    dry_run: bool,
+    force: bool,
+    limit: Optional[int],
+) -> None:
+    """Core enrichment loop."""
+    dsn = get_clean_dsn()
+    conn = psycopg2.connect(dsn)
+
+    print(f"\n{'=' * 60}")
+    print(f"🧠 AI Features Full Enrichment — {CALCULATOR_VER}")
+    print(f"   batch_size={batch_size}  dry_run={dry_run}  force={force}")
+    print(f"{'=' * 60}")
+
+    # 1. Fetch unenriched matches
+    t0 = time.time()
+    matches = fetch_unenriched_matches(conn, force=force, limit=limit)
+    print(f"\n📊 {len(matches):,} matches to enrich ({time.time() - t0:.1f}s)")
+
+    if not matches:
+        print("✅ Nothing to enrich — all rows already populated.")
+        conn.close()
+        return
+
+    # 2. Initialize enrichment service
+    enrichment = FeatureEnrichmentService()
+
+    # 3. Process in batches
+    total = len(matches)
+    processed = 0
+    written = 0
+    errors = 0
+    batch_buf: List[Dict[str, Any]] = []
+    t_start = time.time()
+
+    # Use a dedicated cursor with RealDictCursor for all enrichment queries
+    enrich_cur = conn.cursor(cursor_factory=RealDictCursor)
+
+    for idx, match in enumerate(matches):
+        try:
+            enriched = enrich_single_match(enrichment, enrich_cur, match)
+            batch_buf.append(enriched)
+        except Exception as e:
+            errors += 1
+            if errors <= 10:
+                print(f"   ⚠️ Error enriching {match.get('match_id', '?')}: {e}")
+
+        processed += 1
+
+        # Flush batch
+        if len(batch_buf) >= batch_size:
+            flushed = flush_enrichment_batch(conn, batch_buf, dry_run)
+            written += flushed
+            batch_buf.clear()
+
+        # Progress reporting
+        if processed % 500 == 0:
+            elapsed = time.time() - t_start
+            rate = processed / elapsed if elapsed > 0 else 0
+            remaining = (total - processed) / rate if rate > 0 else 0
+            pct = processed / total * 100
+            print(
+                f"   [{processed:>8,} / {total:,}] "
+                f"({pct:.1f}%) | {rate:.0f} matches/s | "
+                f"ETA: {remaining / 60:.1f} min | "
+                f"errors: {errors}"
+            )
+
+    # Flush remaining
+    if batch_buf:
+        flushed = flush_enrichment_batch(conn, batch_buf, dry_run)
+        written += flushed
+
+    enrich_cur.close()
+
+    elapsed = time.time() - t_start
+    print(f"\n{'=' * 60}")
+    print(f"✅ Enrichment complete:")
+    print(f"   Processed: {processed:,} matches in {elapsed:.1f}s")
+    print(f"   Written:   {written:,} rows")
+    print(f"   Errors:    {errors:,}")
+    print(f"   Rate:      {processed / elapsed:.0f} matches/s")
+    print(f"{'=' * 60}")
+
+    conn.close()
+
+
+def main() -> None:
+    parser = argparse.ArgumentParser(
+        description="Enrich football_ai_features with H2H, referee, stats, and odds data"
+    )
+    parser.add_argument(
+        '--batch-size',
+        type=int,
+        default=DEFAULT_BATCH_SIZE,
+        help=f'DB insert batch size (default: {DEFAULT_BATCH_SIZE})',
+    )
+    parser.add_argument(
+        '--dry-run',
+        action='store_true',
+        help='Compute features but do not write to DB',
+    )
+    parser.add_argument(
+        '--force',
+        action='store_true',
+        help='Re-enrich ALL rows, not just empty ones',
+    )
+    parser.add_argument(
+        '--limit',
+        type=int,
+        default=None,
+        help='Max number of matches to process',
+    )
+    args = parser.parse_args()
+
+    run_enrichment(
+        batch_size=args.batch_size,
+        dry_run=args.dry_run,
+        force=args.force,
+        limit=args.limit,
+    )
+
+
+if __name__ == '__main__':
+    main()
@@ -14,6 +14,7 @@ import json
 import csv
 import math
 import time
+import bisect
 from datetime import datetime
 from collections import defaultdict

@@ -33,7 +34,7 @@ from features.upset_engine import get_upset_engine
 from features.referee_engine import get_referee_engine
 from features.momentum_engine import get_momentum_engine

-TOP_LEAGUES_PATH = os.path.join(AI_ENGINE_DIR, "..", "top_leagues.json")
+TOP_LEAGUES_PATH = os.path.join(AI_ENGINE_DIR, "..", "qualified_leagues.json")
 OUTPUT_CSV = os.path.join(AI_ENGINE_DIR, "data", "training_data.csv")

 # Ensure output dir exists
@@ -120,6 +121,14 @@ FEATURE_COLS = [
    "home_missing_impact", "away_missing_impact",
    "home_goals_form", "away_goals_form",

+    # Player-Level Features (12)
+    "home_lineup_goals_per90", "away_lineup_goals_per90",
+    "home_lineup_assists_per90", "away_lineup_assists_per90",
+    "home_squad_continuity", "away_squad_continuity",
+    "home_top_scorer_form", "away_top_scorer_form",
+    "home_avg_player_exp", "away_avg_player_exp",
+    "home_goals_diversity", "away_goals_diversity",
+    
    # Labels
    "score_home", "score_away", "total_goals",
    "ht_score_home", "ht_score_away", "ht_total_goals",
@@ -336,7 +345,7 @@ class BatchDataLoader:
            self.team_stats[tid].append((mst, poss, sot, tshots, corn, team_goals))

    def _load_squad_data(self):
-        """Bulk load squad participation + player events for squad features."""
+        """Bulk load squad participation + player events + player career for squad features."""
        ph = ",".join(["%s"] * len(self.top_league_ids))

        # 1) Participation: starting XI count + position distribution per (match, team)
@@ -424,12 +433,99 @@ class BatchDataLoader:
        for mid, tid, pid in self.cur.fetchall():
            starting_players[(mid, tid)].append(pid)

-        # 5) Build combined cache
+        # 5) Build match_id → mst_utc mapping for temporal filtering
+        match_mst = {}
+        for m in self.matches:
+            match_mst[m[0]] = m[7]  # m[0]=id, m[7]=mst_utc
+
+        # ─── NEW: Player Career Stats (prefix-sum for O(1) temporal lookup) ───
+        # 6a) Goals per player per match date
+        self.cur.execute(f"""
+            SELECT mpe.player_id, m.mst_utc,
+                   SUM(CASE WHEN mpe.event_type = 'goal'
+                            AND COALESCE(mpe.event_subtype, '') NOT ILIKE '%%penaltı kaçırma%%'
+                       THEN 1 ELSE 0 END) AS goals
+            FROM match_player_events mpe
+            JOIN matches m ON mpe.match_id = m.id
+            WHERE m.status = 'FT' AND m.sport = 'football' AND m.league_id IN ({ph})
+            GROUP BY mpe.player_id, m.mst_utc
+        """, self.top_league_ids)
+
+        player_goals_raw = defaultdict(dict)
+        for pid, mst, goals in self.cur.fetchall():
+            player_goals_raw[pid][mst] = (player_goals_raw[pid].get(mst, 0)) + (goals or 0)
+
+        # 6b) Assists per player per match date
+        self.cur.execute(f"""
+            SELECT mpe.assist_player_id, m.mst_utc, COUNT(*) AS assists
+            FROM match_player_events mpe
+            JOIN matches m ON mpe.match_id = m.id
+            WHERE m.status = 'FT' AND m.sport = 'football' AND m.league_id IN ({ph})
+              AND mpe.event_type = 'goal' AND mpe.assist_player_id IS NOT NULL
+            GROUP BY mpe.assist_player_id, m.mst_utc
+        """, self.top_league_ids)
+
+        player_assists_raw = defaultdict(dict)
+        for pid, mst, assists in self.cur.fetchall():
+            player_assists_raw[pid][mst] = (player_assists_raw[pid].get(mst, 0)) + (assists or 0)
+
+        # 6c) Player participation dates (starts only)
+        self.cur.execute(f"""
+            SELECT mpp.player_id, m.mst_utc
+            FROM match_player_participation mpp
+            JOIN matches m ON mpp.match_id = m.id
+            WHERE mpp.is_starting = true
+              AND m.status = 'FT' AND m.sport = 'football' AND m.league_id IN ({ph})
+            ORDER BY mpp.player_id, m.mst_utc
+        """, self.top_league_ids)
+
+        player_starts_raw = defaultdict(list)
+        for pid, mst in self.cur.fetchall():
+            player_starts_raw[pid].append(mst)
+
+        # 6d) Build prefix sums per player (goals_prefix[i] = total goals up to start i)
+        player_career = {}
+        all_pids = set(player_starts_raw.keys()) | set(player_goals_raw.keys()) | set(player_assists_raw.keys())
+        for pid in all_pids:
+            starts = sorted(set(player_starts_raw.get(pid, [])))
+            if not starts:
+                continue
+            g_map = player_goals_raw.get(pid, {})
+            a_map = player_assists_raw.get(pid, {})
+            cum_g, cum_a = 0, 0
+            goals_pf, assists_pf = [], []
+            for mst in starts:
+                cum_g += g_map.get(mst, 0)
+                cum_a += a_map.get(mst, 0)
+                goals_pf.append(cum_g)
+                assists_pf.append(cum_a)
+            player_career[pid] = {'msts': starts, 'gp': goals_pf, 'ap': assists_pf}
+
+        # Free raw dicts
+        del player_goals_raw, player_assists_raw, player_starts_raw
+        print(f"    📊 Player careers built: {len(player_career)} players", flush=True)
+
+        # ─── NEW: Team Lineup History (for squad continuity) ───
+        # 7) Per-team sorted lineups: [(mst, frozenset(player_ids))]
+        team_lineup_map = defaultdict(list)
+        for (mid, tid), pids in starting_players.items():
+            mst = match_mst.get(mid, 0)
+            if mst > 0 and pids:
+                team_lineup_map[tid].append((mst, frozenset(pids)))
+
+        team_lineup_history = {}
+        team_lineup_msts = {}
+        for tid, ll in team_lineup_map.items():
+            ll.sort(key=lambda x: x[0])
+            team_lineup_history[tid] = ll
+            team_lineup_msts[tid] = [x[0] for x in ll]
+        del team_lineup_map
+
+        # ─── 8) Build combined cache — NO DATA LEAKAGE ───
        all_keys = set(participation.keys()) | set(events.keys())
        for key in all_keys:
            mid, tid = key
            part = participation.get(key, {'starting_count': 0, 'total_squad': 0, 'fwd_count': 0})
-            evt = events.get(key, {'goals': 0, 'assists': 0, 'unique_scorers': 0})

            # Count key players in starting XI
            starters = starting_players.get(key, [])
@@ -437,22 +533,78 @@ class BatchDataLoader:
            kp_total = len(key_players_by_team.get(tid, set()))
            kp_missing = max(0, kp_total - kp_in_starting)

-            # Squad quality: composite score
+            # Squad quality: composite score — ONLY pre-match info
            squad_quality = (
                part['starting_count'] * 0.3 +
-                evt['goals'] * 2.0 +
-                evt['assists'] * 1.0 +
                kp_in_starting * 3.0 +
                part['fwd_count'] * 1.5
            )
-            # Missing impact: how many key players are missing
            missing_impact = min(kp_missing / max(kp_total, 1), 1.0)

+            # goals_form: avg goals from last 5 matches BEFORE this match
+            current_mst = match_mst.get(mid, 0)
+            team_history = self.team_matches.get(tid, [])
+            recent_goals = [
+                tm[2] for tm in team_history if tm[0] < current_mst
+            ][-5:]
+            goals_form = sum(recent_goals) / len(recent_goals) if recent_goals else 1.3
+
+            # ─── NEW: Player-level aggregation for starting XI ───
+            lineup_g90, lineup_a90, total_exp = 0.0, 0.0, 0
+            best_scorer_total, best_scorer_id = 0, None
+            scorers_in_lineup = 0
+
+            for pid in starters:
+                pc = player_career.get(pid)
+                if not pc:
+                    continue
+                idx = bisect.bisect_left(pc['msts'], current_mst)
+                if idx == 0:
+                    continue  # no prior matches for this player
+                prior_starts = idx
+                prior_goals = pc['gp'][idx - 1]
+                prior_assists = pc['ap'][idx - 1]
+                lineup_g90 += prior_goals / prior_starts
+                lineup_a90 += prior_assists / prior_starts
+                total_exp += prior_starts
+                if prior_goals > 0:
+                    scorers_in_lineup += 1
+                if prior_goals > best_scorer_total:
+                    best_scorer_total = prior_goals
+                    best_scorer_id = pid
+
+            n_st = len(starters) or 1
+
+            # Top scorer recent form (goals in last 5 starts)
+            top_scorer_form = 0
+            if best_scorer_id:
+                pc = player_career.get(best_scorer_id)
+                if pc:
+                    idx = bisect.bisect_left(pc['msts'], current_mst)
+                    if idx > 0:
+                        s5 = max(0, idx - 5)
+                        top_scorer_form = pc['gp'][idx - 1] - (pc['gp'][s5 - 1] if s5 > 0 else 0)
+
+            # Squad continuity (overlap with previous match lineup)
+            squad_continuity = 0.5
+            msts_list = team_lineup_msts.get(tid)
+            if msts_list:
+                li = bisect.bisect_left(msts_list, current_mst)
+                if li > 0:
+                    prev_lineup = team_lineup_history[tid][li - 1][1]
+                    squad_continuity = len(frozenset(starters) & prev_lineup) / n_st
+
            self.squad_cache[key] = {
                'squad_quality': squad_quality,
                'key_players': kp_in_starting,
                'missing_impact': missing_impact,
-                'goals_form': evt['goals'],
+                'goals_form': round(goals_form, 2),
+                'lineup_goals_per90': round(lineup_g90, 3),
+                'lineup_assists_per90': round(lineup_a90, 3),
+                'squad_continuity': round(squad_continuity, 3),
+                'top_scorer_form': top_scorer_form,
+                'avg_player_exp': round(total_exp / n_st, 1),
+                'goals_diversity': round(scorers_in_lineup / n_st, 3),
            }

    def _load_cards_data(self):
@@ -496,12 +648,20 @@ class FeatureExtractor:
        self.referee_engine = get_referee_engine()
        self.momentum_engine = get_momentum_engine()
    
+    # ── Data Quality Thresholds ──
+    # Matches below these thresholds produce default-only features that
+    # teach the model noise rather than signal.
+    DQ_MIN_FORM_MATCHES = 3          # team must have ≥3 prior matches
+    DQ_MIN_FEATURE_COVERAGE = 0.30   # ≥30% of key features must be non-default
+
    def extract_all(self) -> list:
-        """Extract features for all matches, yield row dicts."""
+        """Extract features for all matches with data quality validation."""
        matches = self.loader.matches
        total = len(matches)
        rows = []
        skipped = 0
+        dq_rejected = 0
+        dq_reasons: dict = defaultdict(int)
        t_start = time.time()

        print(f"\n🔄 Extracting features for {total} matches...", flush=True)
@@ -528,32 +688,37 @@ class FeatureExtractor:
                rate = i / elapsed  # matches per second
                remaining = (total - i) / rate if rate > 0 else 0
                pct = i / total * 100
-                print(f"  [{i}/{total}] ({pct:.0f}%) | {rate:.1f} maç/s | ETA: {remaining/60:.1f} dk | skipped: {skipped}", flush=True)
+                print(
+                    f"  [{i}/{total}] ({pct:.0f}%) | {rate:.1f} maç/s | "
+                    f"ETA: {remaining/60:.1f} dk | skipped: {skipped} | "
+                    f"dq_rejected: {dq_rejected}",
+                    flush=True,
+                )

            row = self._extract_one(
-                mid,
-                hid,
-                aid,
-                sh,
-                sa,
-                hth,
-                hta,
-                mst,
-                lid,
-                home_name,
-                away_name,
-                league_name,
+                mid, hid, aid, sh, sa, hth, hta, mst, lid,
+                home_name, away_name, league_name,
            )

            if row:
+                # ── Data Quality Gate ──
+                dq_pass, reason = self._validate_row_quality(row, hid, aid, mst)
+                if dq_pass:
                    rows.append(row)
+                else:
+                    dq_rejected += 1
+                    dq_reasons[reason] += 1
            else:
                skipped += 1

            # Update ELO after processing (so ELO is calculated BEFORE the match)
            self._update_elo(hid, aid, sh, sa)

-        print(f"  ✅ Extracted {len(rows)} rows, skipped {skipped}", flush=True)
+        print(f"  ✅ Extracted {len(rows)} rows, skipped {skipped}, DQ rejected {dq_rejected}", flush=True)
+        if dq_reasons:
+            print(f"  📊 DQ Rejection reasons:")
+            for reason, count in sorted(dq_reasons.items(), key=lambda x: -x[1]):
+                print(f"     {reason}: {count}")
        return rows
    
    def _extract_one(
@@ -829,6 +994,20 @@ class FeatureExtractor:
            "home_goals_form": home_goals_form,
            "away_goals_form": away_goals_form,

+            # Player-Level Features
+            "home_lineup_goals_per90": home_sq.get('lineup_goals_per90', 0.0),
+            "away_lineup_goals_per90": away_sq.get('lineup_goals_per90', 0.0),
+            "home_lineup_assists_per90": home_sq.get('lineup_assists_per90', 0.0),
+            "away_lineup_assists_per90": away_sq.get('lineup_assists_per90', 0.0),
+            "home_squad_continuity": home_sq.get('squad_continuity', 0.5),
+            "away_squad_continuity": away_sq.get('squad_continuity', 0.5),
+            "home_top_scorer_form": home_sq.get('top_scorer_form', 0),
+            "away_top_scorer_form": away_sq.get('top_scorer_form', 0),
+            "home_avg_player_exp": home_sq.get('avg_player_exp', 0.0),
+            "away_avg_player_exp": away_sq.get('avg_player_exp', 0.0),
+            "home_goals_diversity": home_sq.get('goals_diversity', 0.0),
+            "away_goals_diversity": away_sq.get('goals_diversity', 0.0),
+            
            # Labels
            "score_home": sh,
            "score_away": sa,
@@ -854,6 +1033,57 @@ class FeatureExtractor:
        
        return row

+    def _validate_row_quality(
+        self,
+        row: dict,
+        home_id: str,
+        away_id: str,
+        before_date: int,
+    ) -> tuple:
+        """
+        Data quality gate for training rows.
+
+        Ensures the feature vector has enough real signal to be useful for
+        training.  Rejects rows where critical features are all at their
+        default/fallback values — these teach the model noise, not patterns.
+
+        Returns (pass: bool, reason: str | None).
+        """
+        # 1. Minimum form history: both teams must have enough prior matches
+        home_history = self.loader.team_matches.get(home_id, [])
+        away_history = self.loader.team_matches.get(away_id, [])
+        home_prior = sum(1 for m in home_history if m[0] < before_date)
+        away_prior = sum(1 for m in away_history if m[0] < before_date)
+
+        if home_prior < self.DQ_MIN_FORM_MATCHES:
+            return False, 'home_insufficient_history'
+        if away_prior < self.DQ_MIN_FORM_MATCHES:
+            return False, 'away_insufficient_history'
+
+        # 2. Feature coverage check: count how many key features are non-default
+        key_features = [
+            ('home_goals_avg', 1.3),
+            ('away_goals_avg', 1.3),
+            ('home_clean_sheet_rate', 0.25),
+            ('away_clean_sheet_rate', 0.25),
+            ('home_avg_possession', 0.50),
+            ('away_avg_possession', 0.50),
+            ('home_avg_shots_on_target', 3.5),
+            ('away_avg_shots_on_target', 3.5),
+            ('h2h_total_matches', 0),
+            ('odds_ms_h', 0.0),
+        ]
+        non_default = sum(
+            1 for feat_name, default_val in key_features
+            if abs(float(row.get(feat_name, default_val)) - default_val) > 0.01
+        )
+        coverage = non_default / len(key_features)
+
+        if coverage < self.DQ_MIN_FEATURE_COVERAGE:
+            return False, f'low_feature_coverage_{coverage:.0%}'
+
+        return True, None
+
    # -------------------------------------------------------------------------
    # ELO (simplified inline version — doesn't need DB, grows incrementally)
    # -------------------------------------------------------------------------
@@ -1,183 +1,271 @@
+"""
+V25-Compatible Score Prediction Model Trainer
+===============================================
+Trains 4 independent XGBoost regression models for:
+  - FT Home Goals
+  - FT Away Goals
+  - HT Home Goals
+  - HT Away Goals

+Uses the same 102-feature set as v25_ensemble for full compatibility.
+Temporal train/test split (80/20) to avoid future leakage.
+
+Usage:
+    python3 scripts/train_score_model.py
+"""
+
+import os
+import sys
+import pickle
+import numpy as np
 import pandas as pd
 import xgboost as xgb
-import pickle
-import os
-from sklearn.model_selection import train_test_split
-from sklearn.metrics import mean_absolute_error, r2_score
+from datetime import datetime
+from sklearn.metrics import mean_absolute_error, r2_score, mean_squared_error

-# Paths
-DATA_PATH = os.path.join(os.path.dirname(__file__), "../data/training_data.csv")
-MODEL_PATH = os.path.join(os.path.dirname(__file__), "../models/xgb_score.pkl")
+# Add parent directory to path
+sys.path.insert(0, os.path.dirname(os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__))))

-# Import unified 56-feature array from markets trainer
-from train_xgboost_markets import FEATURES
+# Config
+AI_ENGINE_DIR = os.path.dirname(os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__)))
+DATA_PATH = os.path.join(AI_ENGINE_DIR, "data", "training_data.csv")
+MODEL_PATH = os.path.join(AI_ENGINE_DIR, "models", "xgb_score.pkl")
+
+# Import the EXACT same feature set as v25 market models
+from train_v25_clean import FEATURES

 TARGETS = ["score_home", "score_away", "ht_score_home", "ht_score_away"]

-def train():
-    print("🚀 Training Score Prediction Model (XGBoost) - Full Time & Half Time")
-    print("=" * 60)
+# Model hyperparameters (tuned for goal count regression)
+XGB_PARAMS = {
+    "objective": "reg:squarederror",
+    "n_estimators": 1200,
+    "learning_rate": 0.02,
+    "max_depth": 6,
+    "subsample": 0.8,
+    "colsample_bytree": 0.7,
+    "min_child_weight": 5,
+    "reg_alpha": 0.1,
+    "reg_lambda": 1.0,
+    "n_jobs": -1,
+    "random_state": 42,
+}

+
+def load_data() -> pd.DataFrame:
+    """Load and validate training data."""
    if not os.path.exists(DATA_PATH):
        print(f"❌ Data file not found: {DATA_PATH}")
-        return
+        print("   Run extract_training_data.py first")
+        sys.exit(1)

    print(f"📦 Loading data from {DATA_PATH}...")
    df = pd.read_csv(DATA_PATH)

-    # Preprocessing
-    # Drop rows where target is missing (should verify)
+    # Fill feature NaNs with 0 (same as v25 training)
+    for col in FEATURES:
+        if col in df.columns:
+            df[col] = df[col].fillna(0)
+
+    # Backward-compatible: add odds presence flags if missing
+    odds_base_columns = [
+        "odds_ms_h", "odds_ms_d", "odds_ms_a",
+        "odds_ht_ms_h", "odds_ht_ms_d", "odds_ht_ms_a",
+        "odds_ou05_o", "odds_ou05_u",
+        "odds_ou15_o", "odds_ou15_u",
+        "odds_ou25_o", "odds_ou25_u",
+        "odds_ou35_o", "odds_ou35_u",
+        "odds_ht_ou05_o", "odds_ht_ou05_u",
+        "odds_ht_ou15_o", "odds_ht_ou15_u",
+        "odds_btts_y", "odds_btts_n",
+    ]
+    for base_col in odds_base_columns:
+        pres_col = f"{base_col}_present"
+        if pres_col not in df.columns and base_col in df.columns:
+            df[pres_col] = (df[base_col] > 1.0).astype(int)
+
+    # Drop rows where any target is missing
    df = df.dropna(subset=TARGETS)

-    # Fill feature NaNs with median/mean or 0
-    print(f"   Original rows: {len(df)}")
-    
-    # Filter valid odds (at least ms_h > 1.0)
+    # Filter: at least MS odds must be present
    df = df[df["odds_ms_h"] > 1.0].copy()
-    print(f"   Rows with valid odds: {len(df)}")

-    X = df[FEATURES]
-    y_home = df["score_home"]
-    y_away = df["score_away"]
-    y_ht_home = df["ht_score_home"]
-    y_ht_away = df["ht_score_away"]
+    # Ensure all features exist
+    missing = [f for f in FEATURES if f not in df.columns]
+    if missing:
+        print(f"⚠️  Missing {len(missing)} features, filling with 0: {missing[:5]}...")
+        for f in missing:
+            df[f] = 0

-    # Train/Test Split
-    X_train, X_test, y_h_train, y_h_test, y_a_train, y_a_test, y_ht_h_train, y_ht_h_test, y_ht_a_train, y_ht_a_test = train_test_split(
-        X, y_home, y_away, y_ht_home, y_ht_away, test_size=0.2, random_state=42
+    return df
+
+
+def temporal_split(df: pd.DataFrame, train_ratio: float = 0.80):
+    """
+    Temporal train/test split by match date.
+    Ensures no future information leaks into training.
+    """
+    if "match_date" in df.columns:
+        df = df.sort_values("match_date").reset_index(drop=True)
+    elif "round" in df.columns:
+        df = df.sort_values("round").reset_index(drop=True)
+
+    split_idx = int(len(df) * train_ratio)
+    return df.iloc[:split_idx].copy(), df.iloc[split_idx:].copy()
+
+
+def train_single_model(X_train, y_train, X_test, y_test, name: str):
+    """Train a single XGBoost regression model with early stopping."""
+    print(f"\n🏗️  Training {name} model...")
+
+    model = xgb.XGBRegressor(**XGB_PARAMS)
+    model.fit(
+        X_train, y_train,
+        eval_set=[(X_test, y_test)],
+        verbose=False,
    )

-    print(f"   Training set: {len(X_train)} matches")
-    print(f"   Test set: {len(X_test)} matches")
+    preds = model.predict(X_test)

-    # --- HOME GOALS MODEL ---
-    print("\n🏠 Training Home Goals Model...")
-    xgb_home = xgb.XGBRegressor(
-        objective='reg:squarederror',
-        n_estimators=1000,
-        learning_rate=0.01,
-        max_depth=5,
-        subsample=0.7,
-        colsample_bytree=0.7,
-        n_jobs=-1,
-        random_state=42,
-        early_stopping_rounds=50 # Configure here for newer XGBoost or remove if not supported in constructor (depends on version)
-    )
-    # Actually, to be safe across versions, let's remove early stopping for now or use validation set properly
-    # Using 'eval_set' without early_stopping_rounds just prints metrics
-    xgb_home = xgb.XGBRegressor(
-        objective='reg:squarederror',
-        n_estimators=1000,
-        learning_rate=0.01,
-        max_depth=5,
-        subsample=0.7,
-        colsample_bytree=0.7,
-        n_jobs=-1,
-        random_state=42
-    )
-    xgb_home.fit(X_train, y_h_train, eval_set=[(X_test, y_h_test)], verbose=False)
+    mae = mean_absolute_error(y_test, preds)
+    rmse = np.sqrt(mean_squared_error(y_test, preds))
+    r2 = r2_score(y_test, preds)

-    home_preds = xgb_home.predict(X_test)
-    mae_home = mean_absolute_error(y_h_test, home_preds)
-    r2_home = r2_score(y_h_test, home_preds)
-    print(f"   ✅ FT Home MAE: {mae_home:.4f} goals")
-    print(f"   ✅ FT Home R2: {r2_home:.4f}")
+    print(f"   MAE:  {mae:.4f} goals")
+    print(f"   RMSE: {rmse:.4f}")
+    print(f"   R²:   {r2:.4f}")

-    # --- AWAY GOALS MODEL ---
-    print("\n✈️ Training FT Away Goals Model...")
-    xgb_away = xgb.XGBRegressor(
-        objective='reg:squarederror',
-        n_estimators=1000,
-        learning_rate=0.01,
-        max_depth=5,
-        subsample=0.7,
-        colsample_bytree=0.7,
-        n_jobs=-1,
-        random_state=42
-    )
-    xgb_away.fit(X_train, y_a_train, eval_set=[(X_test, y_a_test)], verbose=False)
+    return model, {"mae": mae, "rmse": rmse, "r2": r2}

-    away_preds = xgb_away.predict(X_test)
-    mae_away = mean_absolute_error(y_a_test, away_preds)
-    r2_away = r2_score(y_a_test, away_preds)
-    print(f"   ✅ FT Away MAE: {mae_away:.4f} goals")
-    print(f"   ✅ FT Away R2: {r2_away:.4f}")

-    # --- HT HOME GOALS MODEL ---
-    print("\n🏠 Training HT Home Goals Model...")
-    xgb_ht_home = xgb.XGBRegressor(
-        objective='reg:squarederror',
-        n_estimators=1000,
-        learning_rate=0.01,
-        max_depth=5,
-        subsample=0.7,
-        colsample_bytree=0.7,
-        n_jobs=-1,
-        random_state=42
-    )
-    xgb_ht_home.fit(X_train, y_ht_h_train, eval_set=[(X_test, y_ht_h_test)], verbose=False)
+def evaluate_combined(models: dict, X_test, y_test_dict: dict):
+    """Evaluate combined score accuracy (FT and HT)."""
+    print("\n🎯 Combined Score Evaluation (Test Set):")

-    ht_home_preds = xgb_ht_home.predict(X_test)
-    mae_ht_home = mean_absolute_error(y_ht_h_test, ht_home_preds)
-    print(f"   ✅ HT Home MAE: {mae_ht_home:.4f} goals")
+    # FT Score
+    ft_h_preds = models["ft_home"].predict(X_test)
+    ft_a_preds = models["ft_away"].predict(X_test)

-    # --- HT AWAY GOALS MODEL ---
-    print("\n✈️ Training HT Away Goals Model...")
-    xgb_ht_away = xgb.XGBRegressor(
-        objective='reg:squarederror',
-        n_estimators=1000,
-        learning_rate=0.01,
-        max_depth=5,
-        subsample=0.7,
-        colsample_bytree=0.7,
-        n_jobs=-1,
-        random_state=42
-    )
-    xgb_ht_away.fit(X_train, y_ht_a_train, eval_set=[(X_test, y_ht_a_test)], verbose=False)
+    y_ft_h = y_test_dict["score_home"].values
+    y_ft_a = y_test_dict["score_away"].values

-    ht_away_preds = xgb_ht_away.predict(X_test)
-    mae_ht_away = mean_absolute_error(y_ht_a_test, ht_away_preds)
-    print(f"   ✅ HT Away MAE: {mae_ht_away:.4f} goals")
+    exact = 0
+    close = 0
+    result_correct = 0
+    total = len(X_test)

-    # --- EVALUATE EXACT SCORE ACCURACY (ROUNDED) ---
-    print("\n🎯 Exact FT Score Accuracy (Test Set):")
-    correct = 0
-    close = 0 # Within 1 goal diff for both
+    for h_true, a_true, h_pred, a_pred in zip(y_ft_h, y_ft_a, ft_h_preds, ft_a_preds):
+        hp = max(0, round(h_pred))
+        ap = max(0, round(a_pred))

-    for h_true, a_true, h_pred, a_pred in zip(y_h_test, y_a_test, home_preds, away_preds):
-        h_p = round(h_pred)
-        a_p = round(a_pred)
-        if h_p == h_true and a_p == a_true:
-            correct += 1
-        if abs(h_p - h_true) <= 1 and abs(a_p - a_true) <= 1:
+        # Exact score
+        if hp == h_true and ap == a_true:
+            exact += 1
+
+        # Close (±1 each)
+        if abs(hp - h_true) <= 1 and abs(ap - a_true) <= 1:
            close += 1

-    acc = correct / len(X_test) * 100
-    close_acc = close / len(X_test) * 100
-    print(f"   Exact Match: {acc:.2f}%")
-    print(f"   Close Match (+/- 1 goal): {close_acc:.2f}%")
+        # Result direction (1X2)
+        true_result = 1 if h_true > a_true else (0 if h_true == a_true else -1)
+        pred_result = 1 if hp > ap else (0 if hp == ap else -1)
+        if true_result == pred_result:
+            result_correct += 1
+
+    print(f"   FT Exact Score:    {exact / total * 100:.2f}% ({exact}/{total})")
+    print(f"   FT Close (±1):    {close / total * 100:.2f}% ({close}/{total})")
+    print(f"   FT Result (1X2):  {result_correct / total * 100:.2f}% ({result_correct}/{total})")
+
+    # HT Score
+    ht_h_preds = models["ht_home"].predict(X_test)
+    ht_a_preds = models["ht_away"].predict(X_test)
+
+    y_ht_h = y_test_dict["ht_score_home"].values
+    y_ht_a = y_test_dict["ht_score_away"].values
+
+    ht_exact = 0
+    ht_total = len(X_test)
+
+    for h_true, a_true, h_pred, a_pred in zip(y_ht_h, y_ht_a, ht_h_preds, ht_a_preds):
+        hp = max(0, round(h_pred))
+        ap = max(0, round(a_pred))
+        if hp == h_true and ap == a_true:
+            ht_exact += 1
+
+    print(f"   HT Exact Score:   {ht_exact / ht_total * 100:.2f}% ({ht_exact}/{ht_total})")
+
+    return {
+        "ft_exact_pct": exact / total * 100,
+        "ft_close_pct": close / total * 100,
+        "ft_result_pct": result_correct / total * 100,
+        "ht_exact_pct": ht_exact / ht_total * 100,
+    }
+
+
+def train():
+    """Main training pipeline."""
+    print("🚀 Score Prediction Model Trainer (V25-Compatible)")
+    print(f"   Feature count: {len(FEATURES)}")
+    print("=" * 60)
+
+    # Load data
+    df = load_data()
+    print(f"   Total valid rows: {len(df)}")
+
+    # Temporal split
+    train_df, test_df = temporal_split(df)
+    print(f"   Training set: {len(train_df)} matches")
+    print(f"   Test set:     {len(test_df)} matches (temporally after training)")
+
+    X_train = train_df[FEATURES]
+    X_test = test_df[FEATURES]
+
+    # Train 4 models
+    models = {}
+    metrics = {}
+
+    for target_name, model_key in [
+        ("score_home", "ft_home"),
+        ("score_away", "ft_away"),
+        ("ht_score_home", "ht_home"),
+        ("ht_score_away", "ht_away"),
+    ]:
+        model, metric = train_single_model(
+            X_train, train_df[target_name],
+            X_test, test_df[target_name],
+            model_key,
+        )
+        models[model_key] = model
+        metrics[model_key] = metric
+
+    # Combined evaluation
+    y_test_dict = {t: test_df[t] for t in TARGETS}
+    combined = evaluate_combined(models, X_test, y_test_dict)

    # Save
-    print(f"\n💾 Saving models to {MODEL_PATH}...")
+    print(f"\n💾 Saving to {MODEL_PATH}...")
    model_data = {
-        "home_model": xgb_home,
-        "away_model": xgb_away,
-        "ht_home_model": xgb_ht_home,
-        "ht_away_model": xgb_ht_away,
+        "home_model": models["ft_home"],
+        "away_model": models["ft_away"],
+        "ht_home_model": models["ht_home"],
+        "ht_away_model": models["ht_away"],
        "features": FEATURES,
        "meta": {
-            "mae_home": mae_home,
-            "mae_away": mae_away,
-            "mae_ht_home": mae_ht_home,
-            "mae_ht_away": mae_ht_away,
-            "acc": acc
-        }
+            **{f"{k}_{mk}": mv for k, m in metrics.items() for mk, mv in m.items()},
+            **combined,
+            "trained_at": datetime.now().isoformat(),
+            "feature_count": len(FEATURES),
+            "train_size": len(train_df),
+            "test_size": len(test_df),
+        },
    }
+
    with open(MODEL_PATH, "wb") as f:
        pickle.dump(model_data, f)

-    print("✅ Done.")
+    print("\n✅ Score model training complete!")
+    print(f"   Saved: {MODEL_PATH}")
+

 if __name__ == "__main__":
    train()
@@ -0,0 +1,553 @@
+"""
+V25 Pro Model Trainer — Optuna + Isotonic Calibration
+=====================================================
+Combines V25's 83 features + 12 markets + temporal split
+with Optuna hyperparameter tuning and Isotonic Regression calibration.
+
+Usage:
+  python scripts/train_v25_pro.py
+  python scripts/train_v25_pro.py --markets MS,OU25,BTTS  # specific markets
+  python scripts/train_v25_pro.py --trials 30              # fewer trials
+"""
+
+import os
+import sys
+import json
+import pickle
+import argparse
+import numpy as np
+import pandas as pd
+import xgboost as xgb
+import lightgbm as lgb
+import optuna
+from optuna.samplers import TPESampler
+from datetime import datetime
+from sklearn.metrics import accuracy_score, log_loss, classification_report
+from sklearn.isotonic import IsotonicRegression
+from sklearn.base import BaseEstimator, ClassifierMixin
+
+optuna.logging.set_verbosity(optuna.logging.WARNING)
+
+sys.path.insert(0, os.path.dirname(os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__))))
+
+AI_ENGINE_DIR = os.path.dirname(os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__)))
+DATA_PATH = os.path.join(AI_ENGINE_DIR, "data", "training_data.csv")
+MODELS_DIR = os.path.join(AI_ENGINE_DIR, "models", "v25")
+REPORTS_DIR = os.path.join(AI_ENGINE_DIR, "reports", "training_v25")
+
+os.makedirs(MODELS_DIR, exist_ok=True)
+os.makedirs(REPORTS_DIR, exist_ok=True)
+
+# ─── Feature Columns (95 features, NO target leakage) ───────────────
+FEATURES = [
+    # ELO (8)
+    "home_overall_elo", "away_overall_elo", "elo_diff",
+    "home_home_elo", "away_away_elo",
+    "home_form_elo", "away_form_elo", "form_elo_diff",
+    # Form (12)
+    "home_goals_avg", "home_conceded_avg",
+    "away_goals_avg", "away_conceded_avg",
+    "home_clean_sheet_rate", "away_clean_sheet_rate",
+    "home_scoring_rate", "away_scoring_rate",
+    "home_winning_streak", "away_winning_streak",
+    "home_unbeaten_streak", "away_unbeaten_streak",
+    # H2H (6)
+    "h2h_total_matches", "h2h_home_win_rate", "h2h_draw_rate",
+    "h2h_avg_goals", "h2h_btts_rate", "h2h_over25_rate",
+    # Team Stats (8)
+    "home_avg_possession", "away_avg_possession",
+    "home_avg_shots_on_target", "away_avg_shots_on_target",
+    "home_shot_conversion", "away_shot_conversion",
+    "home_avg_corners", "away_avg_corners",
+    # Odds (24 + 20 presence flags)
+    "odds_ms_h", "odds_ms_d", "odds_ms_a",
+    "implied_home", "implied_draw", "implied_away",
+    "odds_ht_ms_h", "odds_ht_ms_d", "odds_ht_ms_a",
+    "odds_ou05_o", "odds_ou05_u",
+    "odds_ou15_o", "odds_ou15_u",
+    "odds_ou25_o", "odds_ou25_u",
+    "odds_ou35_o", "odds_ou35_u",
+    "odds_ht_ou05_o", "odds_ht_ou05_u",
+    "odds_ht_ou15_o", "odds_ht_ou15_u",
+    "odds_btts_y", "odds_btts_n",
+    "odds_ms_h_present", "odds_ms_d_present", "odds_ms_a_present",
+    "odds_ht_ms_h_present", "odds_ht_ms_d_present", "odds_ht_ms_a_present",
+    "odds_ou05_o_present", "odds_ou05_u_present",
+    "odds_ou15_o_present", "odds_ou15_u_present",
+    "odds_ou25_o_present", "odds_ou25_u_present",
+    "odds_ou35_o_present", "odds_ou35_u_present",
+    "odds_ht_ou05_o_present", "odds_ht_ou05_u_present",
+    "odds_ht_ou15_o_present", "odds_ht_ou15_u_present",
+    "odds_btts_y_present", "odds_btts_n_present",
+    # League (4)
+    "home_xga", "away_xga",
+    "league_avg_goals", "league_zero_goal_rate",
+    # Upset Engine (4)
+    "upset_atmosphere", "upset_motivation", "upset_fatigue", "upset_potential",
+    # Referee Engine (5)
+    "referee_home_bias", "referee_avg_goals", "referee_cards_total",
+    "referee_avg_yellow", "referee_experience",
+    # Momentum (3)
+    "home_momentum_score", "away_momentum_score", "momentum_diff",
+    # Squad (9)
+    "home_squad_quality", "away_squad_quality", "squad_diff",
+    "home_key_players", "away_key_players",
+    "home_missing_impact", "away_missing_impact",
+    "home_goals_form", "away_goals_form",
+    # Player-Level Features (12)
+    "home_lineup_goals_per90", "away_lineup_goals_per90",
+    "home_lineup_assists_per90", "away_lineup_assists_per90",
+    "home_squad_continuity", "away_squad_continuity",
+    "home_top_scorer_form", "away_top_scorer_form",
+    "home_avg_player_exp", "away_avg_player_exp",
+    "home_goals_diversity", "away_goals_diversity",
+]
+
+MARKET_CONFIGS = [
+    {"target": "label_ms", "name": "MS", "num_class": 3},
+    {"target": "label_ou15", "name": "OU15", "num_class": 2},
+    {"target": "label_ou25", "name": "OU25", "num_class": 2},
+    {"target": "label_ou35", "name": "OU35", "num_class": 2},
+    {"target": "label_btts", "name": "BTTS", "num_class": 2},
+    {"target": "label_ht_result", "name": "HT_RESULT", "num_class": 3},
+    {"target": "label_ht_ou05", "name": "HT_OU05", "num_class": 2},
+    {"target": "label_ht_ou15", "name": "HT_OU15", "num_class": 2},
+    {"target": "label_ht_ft", "name": "HTFT", "num_class": 9},
+    {"target": "label_odd_even", "name": "ODD_EVEN", "num_class": 2},
+    {"target": "label_cards_ou45", "name": "CARDS_OU45", "num_class": 2},
+    {"target": "label_handicap_ms", "name": "HANDICAP_MS", "num_class": 3},
+]
+
+
+def load_data():
+    """Load and prepare training data."""
+    if not os.path.exists(DATA_PATH):
+        print(f"[ERROR] Data not found: {DATA_PATH}")
+        sys.exit(1)
+
+    print(f"[INFO] Loading {DATA_PATH}...")
+    df = pd.read_csv(DATA_PATH)
+
+    for col in FEATURES:
+        if col in df.columns:
+            df[col] = df[col].fillna(0)
+
+    # Derive odds presence flags for older CSVs
+    odds_flag_sources = {
+        "odds_ms_h_present": "odds_ms_h", "odds_ms_d_present": "odds_ms_d",
+        "odds_ms_a_present": "odds_ms_a", "odds_ht_ms_h_present": "odds_ht_ms_h",
+        "odds_ht_ms_d_present": "odds_ht_ms_d", "odds_ht_ms_a_present": "odds_ht_ms_a",
+        "odds_ou05_o_present": "odds_ou05_o", "odds_ou05_u_present": "odds_ou05_u",
+        "odds_ou15_o_present": "odds_ou15_o", "odds_ou15_u_present": "odds_ou15_u",
+        "odds_ou25_o_present": "odds_ou25_o", "odds_ou25_u_present": "odds_ou25_u",
+        "odds_ou35_o_present": "odds_ou35_o", "odds_ou35_u_present": "odds_ou35_u",
+        "odds_ht_ou05_o_present": "odds_ht_ou05_o", "odds_ht_ou05_u_present": "odds_ht_ou05_u",
+        "odds_ht_ou15_o_present": "odds_ht_ou15_o", "odds_ht_ou15_u_present": "odds_ht_ou15_u",
+        "odds_btts_y_present": "odds_btts_y", "odds_btts_n_present": "odds_btts_n",
+    }
+    for flag_col, odds_col in odds_flag_sources.items():
+        if flag_col not in df.columns:
+            df[flag_col] = (
+                pd.to_numeric(df.get(odds_col, 0), errors="coerce").fillna(0) > 1.01
+            ).astype(float)
+
+    print(f"[INFO] Shape: {df.shape}, Features: {len(FEATURES)}")
+    return df
+
+
+def temporal_split_4way(valid_df: pd.DataFrame):
+    """Chronological 60/15/10/15 split: train/val/cal/test."""
+    ordered = valid_df.sort_values("mst_utc").reset_index(drop=True)
+    n = len(ordered)
+    i1 = int(n * 0.60)
+    i2 = int(n * 0.75)
+    i3 = int(n * 0.85)
+
+    train = ordered.iloc[:i1].copy()
+    val = ordered.iloc[i1:i2].copy()
+    cal = ordered.iloc[i2:i3].copy()
+    test = ordered.iloc[i3:].copy()
+
+    return train, val, cal, test
+
+
+# ─── XGBoost Wrapper for sklearn CalibratedClassifierCV ─────────────
+class XGBWrapper(BaseEstimator, ClassifierMixin):
+    """Thin sklearn-compatible wrapper around xgb.train for Isotonic calibration."""
+
+    def __init__(self, params, num_boost_round=500):
+        self.params = params
+        self.num_boost_round = num_boost_round
+        self.model_ = None
+        self.classes_ = None
+
+    def fit(self, X, y, **kwargs):
+        self.classes_ = np.unique(y)
+        dtrain = xgb.DMatrix(X, label=y)
+        self.model_ = xgb.train(self.params, dtrain, num_boost_round=self.num_boost_round)
+        return self
+
+    def predict_proba(self, X):
+        dm = xgb.DMatrix(X)
+        probs = self.model_.predict(dm)
+        if len(probs.shape) == 1:
+            probs = np.column_stack([1 - probs, probs])
+        return probs
+
+    def predict(self, X):
+        return np.argmax(self.predict_proba(X), axis=1)
+
+
+# ─── Optuna Objectives ──────────────────────────────────────────────
+def xgb_objective(trial, X_train, y_train, X_val, y_val, num_class):
+    params = {
+        "objective": "multi:softprob" if num_class > 2 else "binary:logistic",
+        "eval_metric": "mlogloss" if num_class > 2 else "logloss",
+        "max_depth": trial.suggest_int("max_depth", 3, 8),
+        "eta": trial.suggest_float("eta", 0.01, 0.15, log=True),
+        "subsample": trial.suggest_float("subsample", 0.6, 1.0),
+        "colsample_bytree": trial.suggest_float("colsample_bytree", 0.5, 1.0),
+        "min_child_weight": trial.suggest_int("min_child_weight", 1, 10),
+        "gamma": trial.suggest_float("gamma", 1e-8, 1.0, log=True),
+        "reg_lambda": trial.suggest_float("reg_lambda", 1e-8, 10.0, log=True),
+        "reg_alpha": trial.suggest_float("reg_alpha", 1e-8, 1.0, log=True),
+        "n_jobs": 4,
+        "random_state": 42,
+    }
+    if num_class > 2:
+        params["num_class"] = num_class
+
+    dtrain = xgb.DMatrix(X_train, label=y_train)
+    dval = xgb.DMatrix(X_val, label=y_val)
+
+    model = xgb.train(
+        params, dtrain, num_boost_round=1000,
+        evals=[(dval, "val")], early_stopping_rounds=50, verbose_eval=False,
+    )
+
+    preds = model.predict(dval)
+    if len(preds.shape) == 1:
+        preds = np.column_stack([1 - preds, preds])
+
+    return log_loss(y_val, preds)
+
+
+def lgb_objective(trial, X_train, y_train, X_val, y_val, num_class):
+    params = {
+        "objective": "multiclass" if num_class > 2 else "binary",
+        "metric": "multi_logloss" if num_class > 2 else "binary_logloss",
+        "max_depth": trial.suggest_int("max_depth", 3, 8),
+        "learning_rate": trial.suggest_float("learning_rate", 0.01, 0.15, log=True),
+        "feature_fraction": trial.suggest_float("feature_fraction", 0.5, 1.0),
+        "bagging_fraction": trial.suggest_float("bagging_fraction", 0.6, 1.0),
+        "bagging_freq": trial.suggest_int("bagging_freq", 1, 7),
+        "min_child_samples": trial.suggest_int("min_child_samples", 5, 50),
+        "lambda_l1": trial.suggest_float("lambda_l1", 1e-8, 1.0, log=True),
+        "lambda_l2": trial.suggest_float("lambda_l2", 1e-8, 10.0, log=True),
+        "n_jobs": 4, "random_state": 42, "verbose": -1,
+    }
+    if num_class > 2:
+        params["num_class"] = num_class
+
+    train_data = lgb.Dataset(X_train, label=y_train)
+    val_data = lgb.Dataset(X_val, label=y_val, reference=train_data)
+
+    model = lgb.train(
+        params, train_data, num_boost_round=1000,
+        valid_sets=[val_data], valid_names=["val"],
+        callbacks=[lgb.early_stopping(50), lgb.log_evaluation(0)],
+    )
+
+    preds = model.predict(X_val, num_iteration=model.best_iteration)
+    if len(preds.shape) == 1:
+        preds = np.column_stack([1 - preds, preds])
+
+    return log_loss(y_val, preds)
+
+
+# ─── Main Training Pipeline ─────────────────────────────────────────
+def train_market(df, target_col, market_name, num_class, n_trials):
+    """Full pipeline for one market: Optuna → Train → Calibrate → Evaluate."""
+    print(f"\n{'='*60}")
+    print(f"[MARKET] {market_name} (classes={num_class})")
+    print(f"{'='*60}")
+
+    valid_df = df[df[target_col].notna()].copy()
+    valid_df = valid_df[valid_df[target_col].astype(str) != ""].copy()
+    print(f"[INFO] Valid samples: {len(valid_df)}")
+
+    if len(valid_df) < 500:
+        print(f"[SKIP] Not enough data for {market_name}")
+        return None
+
+    available_features = [f for f in FEATURES if f in valid_df.columns]
+    print(f"[INFO] Features: {len(available_features)}/{len(FEATURES)}")
+
+    train_df, val_df, cal_df, test_df = temporal_split_4way(valid_df)
+    X_train = train_df[available_features].values
+    X_val = val_df[available_features].values
+    X_cal = cal_df[available_features].values
+    X_test = test_df[available_features].values
+    y_train = train_df[target_col].astype(int).values
+    y_val = val_df[target_col].astype(int).values
+    y_cal = cal_df[target_col].astype(int).values
+    y_test = test_df[target_col].astype(int).values
+
+    print(f"[INFO] Split: train={len(X_train)} val={len(X_val)} cal={len(X_cal)} test={len(X_test)}")
+
+    # ── Phase 1: Optuna XGBoost ──────────────────────────────────
+    print(f"\n[OPTUNA] XGBoost tuning ({n_trials} trials)...")
+    xgb_study = optuna.create_study(direction="minimize", sampler=TPESampler(seed=42))
+    xgb_study.optimize(
+        lambda trial: xgb_objective(trial, X_train, y_train, X_val, y_val, num_class),
+        n_trials=n_trials,
+    )
+    xgb_best = xgb_study.best_params
+    print(f"[OK] XGB best logloss: {xgb_study.best_value:.4f}")
+
+    # ── Phase 2: Optuna LightGBM ─────────────────────────────────
+    print(f"[OPTUNA] LightGBM tuning ({n_trials} trials)...")
+    lgb_study = optuna.create_study(direction="minimize", sampler=TPESampler(seed=42))
+    lgb_study.optimize(
+        lambda trial: lgb_objective(trial, X_train, y_train, X_val, y_val, num_class),
+        n_trials=n_trials,
+    )
+    lgb_best = lgb_study.best_params
+    print(f"[OK] LGB best logloss: {lgb_study.best_value:.4f}")
+
+    # ── Phase 3: Train final models with best params ─────────────
+    # XGBoost final
+    xgb_params = {
+        "objective": "multi:softprob" if num_class > 2 else "binary:logistic",
+        "eval_metric": "mlogloss" if num_class > 2 else "logloss",
+        "n_jobs": 4, "random_state": 42,
+        **{k: v for k, v in xgb_best.items()},
+    }
+    if num_class > 2:
+        xgb_params["num_class"] = num_class
+
+    dtrain = xgb.DMatrix(X_train, label=y_train)
+    dval = xgb.DMatrix(X_val, label=y_val)
+    xgb_model = xgb.train(
+        xgb_params, dtrain, num_boost_round=1500,
+        evals=[(dtrain, "train"), (dval, "val")],
+        early_stopping_rounds=80, verbose_eval=200,
+    )
+    print(f"[OK] XGB final: iter={xgb_model.best_iteration}, score={xgb_model.best_score:.4f}")
+
+    # LightGBM final
+    lgb_params = {
+        "objective": "multiclass" if num_class > 2 else "binary",
+        "metric": "multi_logloss" if num_class > 2 else "binary_logloss",
+        "n_jobs": 4, "random_state": 42, "verbose": -1,
+        **{k: v for k, v in lgb_best.items()},
+    }
+    if num_class > 2:
+        lgb_params["num_class"] = num_class
+
+    lgb_train_data = lgb.Dataset(X_train, label=y_train)
+    lgb_val_data = lgb.Dataset(X_val, label=y_val, reference=lgb_train_data)
+    lgb_model = lgb.train(
+        lgb_params, lgb_train_data, num_boost_round=1500,
+        valid_sets=[lgb_train_data, lgb_val_data],
+        valid_names=["train", "val"],
+        callbacks=[lgb.early_stopping(80), lgb.log_evaluation(200)],
+    )
+    print(f"[OK] LGB final: iter={lgb_model.best_iteration}")
+
+    # ── Phase 4: Isotonic Calibration on cal set ─────────────────
+    print("[CAL] Fitting Isotonic Regression (per-class)...")
+
+    # XGB calibration — manual IsotonicRegression per class
+    dcal = xgb.DMatrix(X_cal)
+    xgb_cal_raw = xgb_model.predict(dcal)
+    if len(xgb_cal_raw.shape) == 1:
+        xgb_cal_raw = np.column_stack([1 - xgb_cal_raw, xgb_cal_raw])
+
+    xgb_iso_calibrators = []
+    for cls_idx in range(num_class):
+        ir = IsotonicRegression(out_of_bounds="clip")
+        y_binary = (y_cal == cls_idx).astype(float)
+        ir.fit(xgb_cal_raw[:, cls_idx], y_binary)
+        xgb_iso_calibrators.append(ir)
+    print(f"[OK] XGB Isotonic calibrators fitted: {num_class} classes")
+
+    # LGB calibration — manual IsotonicRegression per class
+    lgb_cal_raw = lgb_model.predict(X_cal, num_iteration=lgb_model.best_iteration)
+    if len(lgb_cal_raw.shape) == 1:
+        lgb_cal_raw = np.column_stack([1 - lgb_cal_raw, lgb_cal_raw])
+
+    lgb_iso_calibrators = []
+    for cls_idx in range(num_class):
+        ir = IsotonicRegression(out_of_bounds="clip")
+        y_binary = (y_cal == cls_idx).astype(float)
+        ir.fit(lgb_cal_raw[:, cls_idx], y_binary)
+        lgb_iso_calibrators.append(ir)
+    print(f"[OK] LGB Isotonic calibrators fitted: {num_class} classes")
+
+    # ── Phase 5: Evaluate on test set ────────────────────────────
+    print("\n[EVAL] Test set evaluation...")
+    dtest = xgb.DMatrix(X_test)
+
+    # Raw XGB
+    xgb_raw_probs = xgb_model.predict(dtest)
+    if len(xgb_raw_probs.shape) == 1:
+        xgb_raw_probs = np.column_stack([1 - xgb_raw_probs, xgb_raw_probs])
+
+    # Calibrated XGB — apply isotonic per class + renormalize
+    xgb_cal_probs = np.column_stack([
+        xgb_iso_calibrators[i].predict(xgb_raw_probs[:, i]) for i in range(num_class)
+    ])
+    xgb_cal_probs = xgb_cal_probs / xgb_cal_probs.sum(axis=1, keepdims=True)
+
+    # Raw LGB
+    lgb_raw_probs = lgb_model.predict(X_test, num_iteration=lgb_model.best_iteration)
+    if len(lgb_raw_probs.shape) == 1:
+        lgb_raw_probs = np.column_stack([1 - lgb_raw_probs, lgb_raw_probs])
+
+    # Calibrated LGB — apply isotonic per class + renormalize
+    lgb_cal_probs = np.column_stack([
+        lgb_iso_calibrators[i].predict(lgb_raw_probs[:, i]) for i in range(num_class)
+    ])
+    lgb_cal_probs = lgb_cal_probs / lgb_cal_probs.sum(axis=1, keepdims=True)
+
+    # Ensembles
+    raw_ensemble = (xgb_raw_probs + lgb_raw_probs) / 2
+    cal_ensemble = (xgb_cal_probs + lgb_cal_probs) / 2
+
+    def _eval(probs, label):
+        preds = np.argmax(probs, axis=1)
+        acc = accuracy_score(y_test, preds)
+        ll = log_loss(y_test, probs)
+        print(f"  {label}: Acc={acc:.4f} LogLoss={ll:.4f}")
+        return {"accuracy": round(float(acc), 4), "logloss": round(float(ll), 4)}
+
+    m_xgb_raw = _eval(xgb_raw_probs, "XGB Raw")
+    m_xgb_cal = _eval(xgb_cal_probs, "XGB Calibrated")
+    m_lgb_raw = _eval(lgb_raw_probs, "LGB Raw")
+    m_lgb_cal = _eval(lgb_cal_probs, "LGB Calibrated")
+    m_ensemble = _eval(raw_ensemble, "Ensemble Raw")
+    m_cal_ensemble = _eval(cal_ensemble, "Ensemble Calibrated")
+
+    # Classification report for ensemble
+    ens_preds = np.argmax(raw_ensemble, axis=1)
+    print(f"\n[REPORT] Ensemble Classification Report:")
+    print(classification_report(y_test, ens_preds))
+
+    # ── Phase 6: Save models ─────────────────────────────────────
+    # Raw models (orchestrator compatible)
+    xgb_path = os.path.join(MODELS_DIR, f"xgb_v25_{market_name.lower()}.json")
+    xgb_model.save_model(xgb_path)
+    print(f"[SAVE] {xgb_path}")
+
+    lgb_path = os.path.join(MODELS_DIR, f"lgb_v25_{market_name.lower()}.txt")
+    lgb_model.save_model(lgb_path)
+    print(f"[SAVE] {lgb_path}")
+
+    # Isotonic calibrators (XGB + LGB)
+    xgb_cal_path = os.path.join(MODELS_DIR, f"iso_xgb_v25_{market_name.lower()}.pkl")
+    with open(xgb_cal_path, "wb") as f:
+        pickle.dump(xgb_iso_calibrators, f)
+    print(f"[SAVE] {xgb_cal_path}")
+
+    lgb_cal_path = os.path.join(MODELS_DIR, f"iso_lgb_v25_{market_name.lower()}.pkl")
+    with open(lgb_cal_path, "wb") as f:
+        pickle.dump(lgb_iso_calibrators, f)
+    print(f"[SAVE] {lgb_cal_path}")
+
+    return {
+        "market": market_name,
+        "samples": int(len(valid_df)),
+        "train": int(len(X_train)),
+        "val": int(len(X_val)),
+        "cal": int(len(X_cal)),
+        "test": int(len(X_test)),
+        "features_used": len(available_features),
+        "xgb_best_params": xgb_best,
+        "lgb_best_params": lgb_best,
+        "xgb_best_iteration": int(xgb_model.best_iteration),
+        "lgb_best_iteration": int(lgb_model.best_iteration),
+        "xgb_optuna_best_logloss": round(float(xgb_study.best_value), 4),
+        "lgb_optuna_best_logloss": round(float(lgb_study.best_value), 4),
+        "test_xgb_raw": m_xgb_raw,
+        "test_xgb_calibrated": m_xgb_cal,
+        "test_lgb_raw": m_lgb_raw,
+        "test_lgb_calibrated": m_lgb_cal,
+        "test_ensemble_raw": m_ensemble,
+        "test_ensemble_calibrated": m_cal_ensemble,
+    }
+
+
+def main():
+    parser = argparse.ArgumentParser(description="V25 Pro Trainer")
+    parser.add_argument("--markets", type=str, default=None,
+                        help="Comma-separated market names (e.g., MS,OU25,BTTS)")
+    parser.add_argument("--trials", type=int, default=50,
+                        help="Optuna trials per model per market")
+    args = parser.parse_args()
+
+    print("=" * 60)
+    print("V25 PRO — Optuna + Isotonic Calibration")
+    print("=" * 60)
+    print(f"[INFO] Started: {datetime.now().strftime('%Y-%m-%d %H:%M:%S')}")
+    print(f"[INFO] Trials per model: {args.trials}")
+    print(f"[INFO] Total features: {len(FEATURES)}")
+
+    df = load_data()
+
+    configs = MARKET_CONFIGS
+    if args.markets:
+        selected = [m.strip().upper() for m in args.markets.split(",")]
+        configs = [c for c in configs if c["name"] in selected]
+        print(f"[INFO] Selected markets: {[c['name'] for c in configs]}")
+
+    all_metrics = {
+        "trained_at": datetime.now().strftime("%Y-%m-%d %H:%M:%S"),
+        "trainer": "v25_pro",
+        "optuna_trials": args.trials,
+        "total_features": len(FEATURES),
+        "markets": {},
+    }
+
+    for config in configs:
+        target = config["target"]
+        if target not in df.columns:
+            print(f"[SKIP] {config['name']}: missing target {target}")
+            continue
+
+        metrics = train_market(
+            df, target, config["name"], config["num_class"], args.trials,
+        )
+        if metrics:
+            all_metrics["markets"][config["name"]] = metrics
+
+    # Save feature list
+    feature_path = os.path.join(MODELS_DIR, "feature_cols.json")
+    with open(feature_path, "w") as f:
+        json.dump(FEATURES, f, indent=2)
+
+    # Save full report
+    report_path = os.path.join(REPORTS_DIR, "v25_pro_metrics.json")
+    with open(report_path, "w") as f:
+        json.dump(all_metrics, f, indent=2, default=str)
+    print(f"\n[SAVE] Report: {report_path}")
+
+    # Summary
+    print("\n" + "=" * 60)
+    print("[SUMMARY]")
+    print("=" * 60)
+    for name, m in all_metrics["markets"].items():
+        ens = m.get("test_ensemble_calibrated", m.get("test_ensemble_raw", {}))
+        acc = ens.get('accuracy', '?')
+        ll = ens.get('logloss', '?')
+        acc_s = f"{acc:.4f}" if isinstance(acc, float) else str(acc)
+        ll_s = f"{ll:.4f}" if isinstance(ll, float) else str(ll)
+        print(f"  {name:12s} | Acc={acc_s:>6s} | LL={ll_s:>6s} | "
+              f"XGB_iter={m.get('xgb_best_iteration','?')} LGB_iter={m.get('lgb_best_iteration','?')}")
+
+    print(f"\n[INFO] Completed: {datetime.now().strftime('%Y-%m-%d %H:%M:%S')}")
+    print("[OK] V25 PRO Training Complete!")
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    main()
@@ -20,7 +20,7 @@ from sklearn.isotonic import IsotonicRegression
 warnings.filterwarnings("ignore")

 AI_DIR = Path(__file__).resolve().parent.parent
-DATA_CSV = AI_DIR / "data" / "training_data_v27.csv"
+DATA_CSV = AI_DIR / "data" / "training_data.csv"
 MODELS_DIR = AI_DIR / "models" / "v27"
 MODELS_DIR.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)

@@ -373,15 +373,52 @@ def main():
        print("\n" + "─"*65)
        print("  STAGE A.2: Fundamentals-Only O/U 2.5 Model")
        print("─"*65)
-        y_tr_ou = tr["label_ou25"].values
-        y_va_ou = va["label_ou25"].values
+        y_tr_ou = tr['label_ou25'].values
+        y_va_ou = va['label_ou25'].values
        mask_tr = ~np.isnan(y_tr_ou)
        mask_va = ~np.isnan(y_va_ou)
        if mask_tr.sum() > 1000:
            ou_models = train_fundamentals_model(
                X_tr[mask_tr], y_tr_ou[mask_tr].astype(int),
                X_va[mask_va], y_va_ou[mask_va].astype(int),
-                clean_feats, "ou25")
+                clean_feats, 'ou25')
+
+    # ── STAGE A.3: BTTS Model ──
+    btts_models = None
+    if 'label_btts' in tr.columns:
+        print('\n' + '─' * 65)
+        print('  STAGE A.3: Fundamentals-Only BTTS Model')
+        print('─' * 65)
+        y_tr_btts = tr['label_btts'].values
+        y_va_btts = va['label_btts'].values
+        mask_tr_btts = ~np.isnan(y_tr_btts)
+        mask_va_btts = ~np.isnan(y_va_btts)
+        if mask_tr_btts.sum() > 1000:
+            btts_models = train_fundamentals_model(
+                X_tr[mask_tr_btts], y_tr_btts[mask_tr_btts].astype(int),
+                X_va[mask_va_btts], y_va_btts[mask_va_btts].astype(int),
+                clean_feats, 'btts')
+
+            # Quick val accuracy
+            btts_probs = ensemble_predict(
+                btts_models,
+                X_va[mask_va_btts],
+                clean_feats,
+                n_class=2,
+            )
+            btts_acc = accuracy_score(
+                y_va_btts[mask_va_btts].astype(int),
+                btts_probs.argmax(1),
+            )
+            btts_ll = log_loss(
+                y_va_btts[mask_va_btts].astype(int),
+                btts_probs,
+            )
+            print(f'\n  BTTS Ensemble Val: acc={btts_acc:.4f}, logloss={btts_ll:.4f}')
+            # Compare with naive baseline (always predict majority class)
+            btts_majority = y_va_btts[mask_va_btts].astype(int).mean()
+            print(f'  BTTS baseline: {max(btts_majority, 1-btts_majority):.4f} (majority class)')
+            print(f'  Model vs baseline: {btts_acc - max(btts_majority, 1-btts_majority):+.4f}')

    # ── STAGE C: Backtest ──
    print("\n" + "─"*65)
@@ -422,13 +459,58 @@ def main():

    # OU25 backtest
    if ou_models:
-        print("\n  --- O/U 2.5 Backtest ---")
+        print('\n  --- O/U 2.5 Backtest ---')
        for edge in [0.05, 0.07, 0.10]:
-            r = backtest_value(ou_models, te, clean_feats, "ou25",
+            r = backtest_value(ou_models, te, clean_feats, 'ou25',
                               min_edge=edge, min_odds=1.50, max_odds=3.0,
                               use_kelly=True)
-            if r.get("total", 0) > 0:
-                print_backtest(r, f"OU25 edge>{edge}")
+            if r.get('total', 0) > 0:
+                print_backtest(r, f'OU25 edge>{edge}')
+
+    # BTTS backtest
+    if btts_models and 'label_btts' in te.columns:
+        print('\n  --- BTTS Backtest ---')
+        # Build BTTS odds for backtest
+        if 'odds_btts_y' in te.columns and 'odds_btts_n' in te.columns:
+            te_btts = te.copy()
+            te_btts['odds_btts_y'] = pd.to_numeric(
+                te_btts['odds_btts_y'], errors='coerce',
+            ).fillna(1.85)
+            te_btts['odds_btts_n'] = pd.to_numeric(
+                te_btts['odds_btts_n'], errors='coerce',
+            ).fillna(1.85)
+
+            for edge in [0.05, 0.07, 0.10]:
+                X_test = te_btts[clean_feats].values
+                probs = ensemble_predict(btts_models, X_test, clean_feats, 2)
+                y_btts = te_btts['label_btts'].values.astype(int)
+                odds_arr = te_btts[['odds_btts_n', 'odds_btts_y']].values
+                m_arr = 1 / odds_arr
+                impl = m_arr / m_arr.sum(axis=1, keepdims=True)
+
+                total_bets = 0
+                wins = 0
+                pnl = 0.0
+                for i in range(len(y_btts)):
+                    for cls in range(2):
+                        e = probs[i, cls] - impl[i, cls]
+                        o = odds_arr[i, cls]
+                        if e < edge or o < 1.50 or o > 3.0:
+                            continue
+                        total_bets += 1
+                        won = (y_btts[i] == cls)
+                        if won:
+                            wins += 1
+                            pnl += 10 * (o - 1)
+                        else:
+                            pnl -= 10
+                if total_bets > 0:
+                    roi = pnl / (total_bets * 10) * 100
+                    hit = wins / total_bets * 100
+                    print(
+                        f'    Edge>{edge:.2f}: {total_bets} bets, '
+                        f'hit={hit:.1f}%, ROI={roi:+.1f}%'
+                    )

    # ── Feature importance ──
    if "lgb" in ms_models:
@@ -452,25 +534,40 @@ def main():

    if ou_models:
        for name, m in ou_models.items():
-            p = MODELS_DIR / f"v27_ou25_{name}.pkl"
-            with open(p, "wb") as f:
+            p = MODELS_DIR / f'v27_ou25_{name}.pkl'
+            with open(p, 'wb') as f:
                pickle.dump(m, f)
-            print(f"  ✓ {p.name}")
+            print(f'  ✓ {p.name}')
+
+    if btts_models:
+        for name, m in btts_models.items():
+            p = MODELS_DIR / f'v27_btts_{name}.pkl'
+            with open(p, 'wb') as f:
+                pickle.dump(m, f)
+            print(f'  ✓ {p.name}')

    meta = {
-        "version": "v27-pro", "trained_at": time.strftime("%Y-%m-%d %H:%M:%S"),
-        "approach": "odds-free fundamentals + value edge detection",
-        "feature_count": len(clean_feats),
-        "total_samples": len(df),
-        "val_acc": round(val_acc, 4), "val_ll": round(val_ll, 4),
-        "best_config": {k: v for k, v in best_cfg.items() if k != "result"} if best_cfg else {},
-        "markets": ["ms"] + (["ou25"] if ou_models else []),
+        'version': 'v27-pro',
+        'trained_at': time.strftime('%Y-%m-%d %H:%M:%S'),
+        'approach': 'odds-free fundamentals + value edge detection',
+        'feature_count': len(clean_feats),
+        'total_samples': len(df),
+        'val_acc': round(val_acc, 4),
+        'val_ll': round(val_ll, 4),
+        'best_config': {
+            k: v for k, v in best_cfg.items() if k != 'result'
+        } if best_cfg else {},
+        'markets': (
+            ['ms']
+            + (['ou25'] if ou_models else [])
+            + (['btts'] if btts_models else [])
+        ),
    }
-    with open(MODELS_DIR / "v27_metadata.json", "w") as f:
+    with open(MODELS_DIR / 'v27_metadata.json', 'w') as f:
        json.dump(meta, f, indent=2, default=str)
-    with open(MODELS_DIR / "v27_feature_cols.json", "w") as f:
+    with open(MODELS_DIR / 'v27_feature_cols.json', 'w') as f:
        json.dump(clean_feats, f, indent=2)
-    print(f"  ✓ metadata + feature_cols")
+    print(f'  ✓ metadata + feature_cols')

    print(f"\n  Total time: {(time.time()-t0)/60:.1f} min")
    print("  DONE!")
@@ -0,0 +1,307 @@
+"""
+Update Implied Odds in football_ai_features
+=============================================
+Populates implied_home, implied_draw, implied_away, implied_over25, implied_btts
+from real odds data in odd_categories + odd_selections tables.
+
+Also backfills form-based features (home_goals_avg_5, away_goals_avg_5, etc.)
+from recent match history.
+
+Usage:
+    python3 scripts/update_implied_odds.py
+"""
+
+import os
+import sys
+import time
+import psycopg2
+from dotenv import load_dotenv
+
+load_dotenv()
+
+
+def get_conn():
+    db_url = os.getenv("DATABASE_URL", "").split("?schema=")[0]
+    return psycopg2.connect(db_url)
+
+
+def update_implied_odds(conn):
+    """Update implied probabilities from real odds data."""
+    cur = conn.cursor()
+
+    print("📊 Phase 1: Updating implied odds from real market data...")
+    t0 = time.time()
+
+    # Step 1: Build odds lookup from odd_categories + odd_selections
+    print("  Loading odds data...")
+    cur.execute("""
+        SELECT oc.match_id, oc.name AS cat_name, os.name AS sel_name, os.odd_value
+        FROM odd_selections os
+        JOIN odd_categories oc ON os.odd_category_db_id = oc.db_id
+        WHERE os.odd_value IS NOT NULL
+          AND CAST(os.odd_value AS FLOAT) > 1.0
+    """)
+
+    odds_by_match = {}
+    row_count = 0
+    for match_id, cat_name, sel_name, odd_val in cur.fetchall():
+        try:
+            v = float(odd_val)
+            if v <= 1.0:
+                continue
+        except (ValueError, TypeError):
+            continue
+
+        if match_id not in odds_by_match:
+            odds_by_match[match_id] = {}
+
+        cat_lower = (cat_name or "").lower().strip()
+        sel_lower = (sel_name or "").lower().strip()
+
+        # Match Result (1X2)
+        if cat_lower == 'maç sonucu':
+            if sel_name == '1':
+                odds_by_match[match_id]['ms_h'] = v
+            elif sel_name in ('0', 'X'):
+                odds_by_match[match_id]['ms_d'] = v
+            elif sel_name == '2':
+                odds_by_match[match_id]['ms_a'] = v
+
+        # Over/Under 2.5
+        elif cat_lower == '2,5 alt/üst':
+            if 'üst' in sel_lower:
+                odds_by_match[match_id]['ou25_o'] = v
+            elif 'alt' in sel_lower:
+                odds_by_match[match_id]['ou25_u'] = v
+
+        # BTTS
+        elif cat_lower == 'karşılıklı gol':
+            if 'var' in sel_lower:
+                odds_by_match[match_id]['btts_y'] = v
+            elif 'yok' in sel_lower:
+                odds_by_match[match_id]['btts_n'] = v
+
+        row_count += 1
+
+    print(f"  Loaded odds for {len(odds_by_match)} matches ({row_count} selections) in {time.time()-t0:.1f}s")
+
+    # Step 2: Calculate implied probabilities and update
+    print("  Calculating implied probabilities...")
+
+    # Get all match_ids in football_ai_features
+    cur.execute("SELECT match_id FROM football_ai_features")
+    feature_match_ids = {row[0] for row in cur.fetchall()}
+
+    updated = 0
+    batch_size = 500
+    updates = []
+
+    for match_id in feature_match_ids:
+        odds = odds_by_match.get(match_id, {})
+        if not odds:
+            continue
+
+        # Implied MS probabilities (vig-free normalization)
+        ms_h = odds.get('ms_h', 0)
+        ms_d = odds.get('ms_d', 0)
+        ms_a = odds.get('ms_a', 0)
+
+        implied_home = 0.33
+        implied_draw = 0.33
+        implied_away = 0.33
+
+        if ms_h > 1.0 and ms_d > 1.0 and ms_a > 1.0:
+            raw_sum = (1 / ms_h) + (1 / ms_d) + (1 / ms_a)
+            if raw_sum > 0:
+                implied_home = round((1 / ms_h) / raw_sum, 4)
+                implied_draw = round((1 / ms_d) / raw_sum, 4)
+                implied_away = round((1 / ms_a) / raw_sum, 4)
+
+        # Implied OU25
+        ou25_o = odds.get('ou25_o', 0)
+        ou25_u = odds.get('ou25_u', 0)
+        implied_over25 = 0.50
+
+        if ou25_o > 1.0 and ou25_u > 1.0:
+            raw_sum = (1 / ou25_o) + (1 / ou25_u)
+            if raw_sum > 0:
+                implied_over25 = round((1 / ou25_o) / raw_sum, 4)
+
+        # Implied BTTS
+        btts_y = odds.get('btts_y', 0)
+        btts_n = odds.get('btts_n', 0)
+        implied_btts = 0.50
+
+        if btts_y > 1.0 and btts_n > 1.0:
+            raw_sum = (1 / btts_y) + (1 / btts_n)
+            if raw_sum > 0:
+                implied_btts = round((1 / btts_y) / raw_sum, 4)
+
+        # Only update if we have real data (not all defaults)
+        has_real_data = (ms_h > 1.0 or ou25_o > 1.0 or btts_y > 1.0)
+        if not has_real_data:
+            continue
+
+        updates.append((
+            implied_home, implied_draw, implied_away,
+            implied_over25, implied_btts, match_id
+        ))
+
+        if len(updates) >= batch_size:
+            cur.executemany("""
+                UPDATE football_ai_features
+                SET implied_home = %s,
+                    implied_draw = %s,
+                    implied_away = %s,
+                    implied_over25 = %s,
+                    implied_btts_yes = %s
+                WHERE match_id = %s
+            """, updates)
+            updated += len(updates)
+            updates = []
+
+    # Final batch
+    if updates:
+        cur.executemany("""
+            UPDATE football_ai_features
+            SET implied_home = %s,
+                implied_draw = %s,
+                implied_away = %s,
+                implied_over25 = %s,
+                implied_btts_yes = %s
+            WHERE match_id = %s
+        """, updates)
+        updated += len(updates)
+
+    conn.commit()
+    print(f"  ✅ Updated implied odds for {updated} matches in {time.time()-t0:.1f}s")
+    return updated
+
+
+def update_form_features(conn):
+    """Backfill form-based features (goals avg, clean sheet rate) from match history."""
+    cur = conn.cursor()
+
+    print("\n📊 Phase 2: Updating form-based features...")
+    t0 = time.time()
+
+    # Load all finished football matches ordered by time
+    print("  Loading match history...")
+    cur.execute("""
+        SELECT id, home_team_id, away_team_id, score_home, score_away, mst_utc
+        FROM matches
+        WHERE status = 'FT'
+          AND score_home IS NOT NULL
+          AND sport = 'football'
+        ORDER BY mst_utc ASC
+    """)
+
+    matches = cur.fetchall()
+    print(f"  Loaded {len(matches)} finished matches")
+
+    # Build team history incrementally
+    from collections import defaultdict
+    team_history = defaultdict(list)  # team_id -> [(goals_scored, goals_conceded)]
+
+    # Get all feature match IDs
+    cur.execute("SELECT match_id FROM football_ai_features")
+    feature_match_ids = {row[0] for row in cur.fetchall()}
+
+    updated = 0
+    batch_size = 500
+    updates = []
+
+    for match_id, home_id, away_id, score_home, score_away, mst_utc in matches:
+        # Calculate features BEFORE updating history (pre-match features)
+        if match_id in feature_match_ids:
+            h_hist = team_history[home_id][-5:]  # last 5
+            a_hist = team_history[away_id][-5:]
+
+            # Home team form
+            if h_hist:
+                h_goals_avg = sum(g for g, _ in h_hist) / len(h_hist)
+                h_conceded_avg = sum(c for _, c in h_hist) / len(h_hist)
+                h_cs_rate = sum(1 for _, c in h_hist if c == 0) / len(h_hist)
+                h_scoring_rate = sum(1 for g, _ in h_hist if g > 0) / len(h_hist)
+            else:
+                h_goals_avg, h_conceded_avg = 1.3, 1.2
+                h_cs_rate, h_scoring_rate = 0.25, 0.75
+
+            # Away team form
+            if a_hist:
+                a_goals_avg = sum(g for g, _ in a_hist) / len(a_hist)
+                a_conceded_avg = sum(c for _, c in a_hist) / len(a_hist)
+                a_cs_rate = sum(1 for _, c in a_hist if c == 0) / len(a_hist)
+                a_scoring_rate = sum(1 for g, _ in a_hist if g > 0) / len(a_hist)
+            else:
+                a_goals_avg, a_conceded_avg = 1.3, 1.2
+                a_cs_rate, a_scoring_rate = 0.25, 0.75
+
+            updates.append((
+                round(h_goals_avg, 3), round(h_conceded_avg, 3),
+                round(h_cs_rate, 3), round(h_scoring_rate, 3),
+                round(a_goals_avg, 3), round(a_conceded_avg, 3),
+                round(a_cs_rate, 3), round(a_scoring_rate, 3),
+                match_id
+            ))
+
+            if len(updates) >= batch_size:
+                cur.executemany("""
+                    UPDATE football_ai_features
+                    SET home_goals_avg_5 = %s,
+                        home_conceded_avg_5 = %s,
+                        home_clean_sheet_rate = %s,
+                        home_scoring_rate = %s,
+                        away_goals_avg_5 = %s,
+                        away_conceded_avg_5 = %s,
+                        away_clean_sheet_rate = %s,
+                        away_scoring_rate = %s
+                    WHERE match_id = %s
+                """, updates)
+                updated += len(updates)
+                updates = []
+
+        # Update history AFTER feature extraction (maintains pre-match invariant)
+        team_history[home_id].append((score_home, score_away))
+        team_history[away_id].append((score_away, score_home))
+
+    # Final batch
+    if updates:
+        cur.executemany("""
+            UPDATE football_ai_features
+            SET home_goals_avg_5 = %s,
+                home_conceded_avg_5 = %s,
+                home_clean_sheet_rate = %s,
+                home_scoring_rate = %s,
+                away_goals_avg_5 = %s,
+                away_conceded_avg_5 = %s,
+                away_clean_sheet_rate = %s,
+                away_scoring_rate = %s
+            WHERE match_id = %s
+        """, updates)
+        updated += len(updates)
+
+    conn.commit()
+    print(f"  ✅ Updated form features for {updated} matches in {time.time()-t0:.1f}s")
+    return updated
+
+
+def main():
+    print("🚀 Football AI Features — Implied Odds & Form Backfill")
+    print("=" * 60)
+
+    conn = get_conn()
+
+    try:
+        odds_updated = update_implied_odds(conn)
+        form_updated = update_form_features(conn)
+
+        print(f"\n✅ DONE!")
+        print(f"   Implied odds updated: {odds_updated} matches")
+        print(f"   Form features updated: {form_updated} matches")
+    finally:
+        conn.close()
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    main()
@@ -0,0 +1,505 @@
+"""
+Deterministic betting judge for prediction packages.
+
+The model layer estimates event probabilities. BettingBrain decides whether
+those probabilities are trustworthy enough to risk money.
+"""
+
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+from typing import Any, Dict, List, Optional, Tuple
+
+
+class BettingBrain:
+    MIN_ODDS = 1.30
+    MIN_BET_SCORE = 72.0
+    MIN_WATCH_SCORE = 62.0
+    MIN_BAND_SAMPLE = 8
+    HARD_DIVERGENCE = 0.22
+    SOFT_DIVERGENCE = 0.14
+    EXTREME_MODEL_PROB = 0.85
+    EXTREME_GAP = 0.30
+
+    MARKET_PRIORS = {
+        "DC": 4.0,
+        "OU15": 3.0,
+        "OU25": 2.0,
+        "BTTS": 0.0,
+        "MS": -2.0,
+        "OU35": -2.0,
+        "HT": -6.0,
+        "HTFT": -12.0,
+        "CARDS": -5.0,
+        "OE": -8.0,
+    }
+
+    def judge(self, package: Dict[str, Any]) -> Dict[str, Any]:
+        v27_engine = package.get("v27_engine")
+        if not isinstance(v27_engine, dict):
+            return package
+
+        guarded = dict(package)
+        rows = self._collect_rows(guarded)
+        if not rows:
+            return guarded
+
+        judged_rows: Dict[str, Dict[str, Any]] = {}
+        decisions: List[Dict[str, Any]] = []
+        for row in rows:
+            key = self._row_key(row)
+            judged = self._judge_row(dict(row), guarded)
+            judged_rows[key] = judged
+            decisions.append(judged["betting_brain"])
+
+        approved = [
+            row for row in judged_rows.values()
+            if row.get("betting_brain", {}).get("action") == "BET"
+        ]
+        watchlist = [
+            row for row in judged_rows.values()
+            if row.get("betting_brain", {}).get("action") == "WATCH"
+        ]
+        approved.sort(key=self._candidate_sort_key, reverse=True)
+        watchlist.sort(key=self._candidate_sort_key, reverse=True)
+
+        original_main = guarded.get("main_pick") or {}
+        main_pick = None
+        decision = "NO_BET"
+        decision_reason = "No candidate passed the betting brain evidence gates."
+
+        if approved:
+            main_pick = dict(approved[0])
+            main_pick["is_guaranteed"] = bool(main_pick.get("betting_brain", {}).get("score", 0.0) >= 82.0)
+            main_pick["pick_reason"] = "betting_brain_approved"
+            decision = "BET"
+            decision_reason = main_pick.get("betting_brain", {}).get("summary", "Evidence is aligned.")
+        elif watchlist:
+            main_pick = dict(watchlist[0])
+            self._force_no_bet(main_pick, "betting_brain_watchlist")
+            decision = "WATCHLIST"
+            decision_reason = main_pick.get("betting_brain", {}).get("summary", "Interesting but not clean enough.")
+        elif original_main:
+            main_pick = dict(judged_rows.get(self._row_key(original_main), original_main))
+            self._force_no_bet(main_pick, "betting_brain_no_safe_pick")
+
+        main_key = self._row_key(main_pick) if main_pick else ""
+        supporting = [
+            dict(row)
+            for row in judged_rows.values()
+            if self._row_key(row) != main_key
+        ]
+        supporting.sort(key=self._candidate_sort_key, reverse=True)
+
+        bet_summary = [
+            self._summary_item(row)
+            for row in sorted(judged_rows.values(), key=self._candidate_sort_key, reverse=True)
+        ]
+
+        guarded["main_pick"] = main_pick
+        guarded["value_pick"] = self._pick_value_candidate(judged_rows, main_key)
+        guarded["supporting_picks"] = supporting[:6]
+        guarded["bet_summary"] = bet_summary
+
+        playable = decision == "BET" and bool(main_pick and main_pick.get("playable"))
+        advice = dict(guarded.get("bet_advice") or {})
+        advice["playable"] = playable
+        advice["suggested_stake_units"] = float(main_pick.get("stake_units", 0.0)) if playable else 0.0
+        advice["reason"] = "betting_brain_approved" if playable else "betting_brain_no_bet"
+        advice["decision"] = decision
+        advice["confidence_band"] = self._decision_band(main_pick)
+        guarded["bet_advice"] = advice
+
+        rejected = [d for d in decisions if d.get("action") == "REJECT"]
+        guarded["betting_brain"] = {
+            "version": "judge-v1",
+            "decision": decision,
+            "reason": decision_reason,
+            "main_pick_key": main_key or None,
+            "approved_count": len(approved),
+            "watchlist_count": len(watchlist),
+            "rejected_count": len(rejected),
+            "top_candidates": self._top_decisions(decisions),
+            "rules": {
+                "min_bet_score": self.MIN_BET_SCORE,
+                "min_watch_score": self.MIN_WATCH_SCORE,
+                "min_band_sample": self.MIN_BAND_SAMPLE,
+                "hard_divergence": self.HARD_DIVERGENCE,
+                "soft_divergence": self.SOFT_DIVERGENCE,
+                "extreme_model_probability": self.EXTREME_MODEL_PROB,
+                "extreme_model_market_gap": self.EXTREME_GAP,
+            },
+        }
+        guarded["upper_brain"] = guarded["betting_brain"]
+        guarded.setdefault("analysis_details", {})
+        guarded["analysis_details"]["betting_brain_applied"] = True
+        guarded["analysis_details"]["betting_brain_decision"] = decision
+        return guarded
+
+    def _judge_row(self, row: Dict[str, Any], package: Dict[str, Any]) -> Dict[str, Any]:
+        market = str(row.get("market") or "")
+        pick = str(row.get("pick") or "")
+        model_prob = self._market_probability(row, package)
+        odds = self._safe_float(row.get("odds"), 0.0) or 0.0
+        implied = (1.0 / odds) if odds > 1.0 else 0.0
+        model_gap = (model_prob - implied) if model_prob is not None and implied > 0 else None
+        calibrated_conf = self._safe_float(row.get("calibrated_confidence", row.get("confidence")), 0.0) or 0.0
+        play_score = self._safe_float(row.get("play_score"), 0.0) or 0.0
+        ev_edge = self._safe_float(row.get("ev_edge", row.get("edge")), 0.0) or 0.0
+        v27_prob = self._v27_probability(market, pick, package.get("v27_engine") or {})
+        divergence = abs(model_prob - v27_prob) if model_prob is not None and v27_prob is not None else None
+        triple_key = self._triple_key(market, pick)
+        triple = self._triple_value(package, triple_key)
+        band_sample = int(self._safe_float((triple or {}).get("band_sample"), 0.0) or 0.0)
+        triple_is_value = bool((triple or {}).get("is_value"))
+        consensus = str((package.get("v27_engine") or {}).get("consensus") or "").upper()
+
+        positives: List[str] = []
+        issues: List[str] = []
+        vetoes: List[str] = []
+        score = 0.0
+
+        if row.get("playable"):
+            score += 18.0
+            positives.append("base_model_playable")
+        else:
+            score -= 18.0
+            issues.append("base_model_not_playable")
+
+        is_value_sniper = bool(row.get("is_value_sniper"))
+        if is_value_sniper:
+            score += 35.0
+            positives.append("value_sniper_override")
+
+        score += max(0.0, min(20.0, calibrated_conf * 0.22))
+        score += max(-8.0, min(16.0, ev_edge * 45.0))
+        score += max(0.0, min(14.0, play_score * 0.12))
+        score += self.MARKET_PRIORS.get(market, -3.0)
+
+        data_quality = package.get("data_quality") or {}
+        quality_score = self._safe_float(data_quality.get("score"), 0.6) or 0.6
+        score += max(-8.0, min(6.0, (quality_score - 0.55) * 16.0))
+        risk = str((package.get("risk") or {}).get("level") or "MEDIUM").upper()
+        score += {"LOW": 5.0, "MEDIUM": 0.0, "HIGH": -12.0, "EXTREME": -22.0}.get(risk, -4.0)
+
+        if odds < self.MIN_ODDS:
+            vetoes.append("odds_below_minimum")
+        if calibrated_conf < 38.0 and not is_value_sniper:
+            vetoes.append("calibrated_confidence_too_low")
+        if play_score < 50.0 and not is_value_sniper:
+            vetoes.append("play_score_too_low")
+
+        if divergence is not None:
+            if divergence >= self.HARD_DIVERGENCE and not is_value_sniper:
+                score -= 42.0
+                vetoes.append("v25_v27_hard_disagreement")
+            elif divergence >= self.SOFT_DIVERGENCE:
+                score -= 18.0
+                issues.append("v25_v27_soft_disagreement")
+            else:
+                score += 11.0
+                positives.append("v25_v27_aligned")
+
+        if isinstance(triple, dict):
+            if triple_is_value:
+                score += 18.0
+                positives.append("triple_value_confirmed")
+            elif market in {"DC", "MS", "OU25", "BTTS"}:
+                score -= 18.0
+                issues.append("triple_value_not_confirmed")
+
+            if band_sample >= 25:
+                score += 8.0
+                positives.append("strong_historical_sample")
+            elif band_sample >= self.MIN_BAND_SAMPLE:
+                score += 3.0
+                positives.append("usable_historical_sample")
+            else:
+                score -= 16.0
+                issues.append("historical_sample_too_low")
+                if market == "DC" and not is_value_sniper:
+                    vetoes.append("dc_without_historical_sample")
+        elif market in {"MS", "DC", "OU25"}:
+            score -= 10.0
+            issues.append("missing_triple_value_evidence")
+
+        if consensus == "DISAGREE" and market in {"MS", "DC"}:
+            score -= 12.0
+            issues.append("engine_consensus_disagree")
+
+        if (
+            model_prob is not None
+            and model_gap is not None
+            and model_prob >= self.EXTREME_MODEL_PROB
+            and model_gap >= self.EXTREME_GAP
+            and not triple_is_value
+            and not is_value_sniper
+        ):
+            score -= 24.0
+            vetoes.append("extreme_probability_without_evidence")
+
+        if market in {"HT", "HTFT", "OE"} and score < 86.0 and not is_value_sniper:
+            vetoes.append("volatile_market_requires_exceptional_evidence")
+
+        score = max(0.0, min(100.0, score))
+        action = "BET"
+        if vetoes:
+            action = "REJECT"
+        elif score < self.MIN_WATCH_SCORE and not is_value_sniper:
+            action = "REJECT"
+        elif score < self.MIN_BET_SCORE and not is_value_sniper:
+            action = "WATCH"
+
+        row["betting_brain"] = {
+            "action": action,
+            "score": round(score, 1),
+            "summary": self._summary(action, market, pick, positives, issues, vetoes),
+            "positives": positives[:5],
+            "issues": issues[:6],
+            "vetoes": vetoes[:6],
+            "model_prob": round(model_prob, 4) if model_prob is not None else None,
+            "implied_prob": round(implied, 4),
+            "model_market_gap": round(model_gap, 4) if model_gap is not None else None,
+            "v27_prob": round(v27_prob, 4) if v27_prob is not None else None,
+            "divergence": round(divergence, 4) if divergence is not None else None,
+            "triple_key": triple_key,
+            "triple_value": triple,
+        }
+
+        if action != "BET":
+            self._force_no_bet(row, f"betting_brain_{action.lower()}")
+        else:
+            row["is_guaranteed"] = bool(score >= 82.0)
+            row["pick_reason"] = "betting_brain_approved"
+            row["stake_units"] = self._brain_stake(row, score)
+            row["bet_grade"] = "A" if score >= 82.0 else "B"
+            row["playable"] = True
+
+        self._append_reason(row, f"betting_brain_{action.lower()}_{round(score)}")
+        return row
+
+    def _collect_rows(self, package: Dict[str, Any]) -> List[Dict[str, Any]]:
+        rows: Dict[str, Dict[str, Any]] = {}
+        for source in ("main_pick", "value_pick"):
+            item = package.get(source)
+            if isinstance(item, dict) and item.get("market"):
+                # print(f"DEBUG: {source} is_value_sniper: {item.get('is_value_sniper')}")
+                rows[self._row_key(item)] = dict(item)
+
+        for source in ("supporting_picks", "bet_summary"):
+            for item in package.get(source) or []:
+                if isinstance(item, dict) and item.get("market"):
+                    key = self._row_key(item)
+                    rows[key] = self._merge_row(rows.get(key), item)
+        
+        return list(rows.values())
+
+    @staticmethod
+    def _merge_row(existing: Optional[Dict[str, Any]], incoming: Dict[str, Any]) -> Dict[str, Any]:
+        if existing is None:
+            return dict(incoming)
+        merged = dict(incoming)
+        merged.update({k: v for k, v in existing.items() if v is not None})
+        for key in ("decision_reasons", "reasons"):
+            reasons = list(existing.get(key) or []) + list(incoming.get(key) or [])
+            if reasons:
+                merged[key] = list(dict.fromkeys(reasons))
+        return merged
+
+    def _pick_value_candidate(self, rows: Dict[str, Dict[str, Any]], main_key: str) -> Optional[Dict[str, Any]]:
+        candidates = [
+            row for key, row in rows.items()
+            if key != main_key
+            and row.get("betting_brain", {}).get("action") in {"BET", "WATCH"}
+            and (self._safe_float(row.get("odds"), 0.0) or 0.0) >= 1.60
+        ]
+        candidates.sort(key=self._candidate_sort_key, reverse=True)
+        return dict(candidates[0]) if candidates else None
+
+    def _summary_item(self, row: Dict[str, Any]) -> Dict[str, Any]:
+        reasons = list(row.get("decision_reasons") or row.get("reasons") or [])
+        return {
+            "market": row.get("market"),
+            "pick": row.get("pick"),
+            "raw_confidence": row.get("raw_confidence", row.get("confidence")),
+            "calibrated_confidence": row.get("calibrated_confidence", row.get("confidence")),
+            "bet_grade": row.get("bet_grade", "PASS"),
+            "playable": bool(row.get("playable")),
+            "stake_units": float(row.get("stake_units", 0.0) or 0.0),
+            "play_score": row.get("play_score", 0.0),
+            "ev_edge": row.get("ev_edge", row.get("edge", 0.0)),
+            "implied_prob": row.get("implied_prob", 0.0),
+            "odds_reliability": row.get("odds_reliability", 0.35),
+            "odds": row.get("odds", 0.0),
+            "reasons": reasons[:6],
+            "betting_brain": row.get("betting_brain"),
+        }
+
+    @staticmethod
+    def _candidate_sort_key(row: Dict[str, Any]) -> Tuple[float, float, float]:
+        brain = row.get("betting_brain") or {}
+        action_boost = {"BET": 2.0, "WATCH": 1.0, "REJECT": 0.0}.get(str(brain.get("action")), 0.0)
+        return (
+            action_boost,
+            float(brain.get("score", 0.0) or 0.0),
+            float(row.get("play_score", 0.0) or 0.0),
+        )
+
+    @staticmethod
+    def _row_key(row: Optional[Dict[str, Any]]) -> str:
+        if not isinstance(row, dict):
+            return ""
+        return f"{row.get('market')}:{row.get('pick')}"
+
+    def _force_no_bet(self, row: Dict[str, Any], reason: str) -> None:
+        row["playable"] = False
+        row["stake_units"] = 0.0
+        row["bet_grade"] = "PASS"
+        row["is_guaranteed"] = False
+        row["pick_reason"] = reason
+        if row.get("signal_tier") == "CORE":
+            row["signal_tier"] = "PASS"
+        self._append_reason(row, reason)
+
+    @staticmethod
+    def _append_reason(row: Dict[str, Any], reason: str) -> None:
+        key = "decision_reasons" if "decision_reasons" in row else "reasons"
+        reasons = list(row.get(key) or [])
+        if reason not in reasons:
+            reasons.append(reason)
+        row[key] = reasons[:6]
+
+    def _brain_stake(self, row: Dict[str, Any], score: float) -> float:
+        existing = self._safe_float(row.get("stake_units"), 0.0) or 0.0
+        odds = self._safe_float(row.get("odds"), 0.0) or 0.0
+        if odds <= 1.0:
+            return 0.0
+        cap = 2.0 if score >= 82.0 else 1.2
+        if score < 78.0:
+            cap = 0.8
+        return round(max(0.25, min(existing if existing > 0 else cap, cap)), 1)
+
+    @staticmethod
+    def _decision_band(main_pick: Optional[Dict[str, Any]]) -> str:
+        if not main_pick:
+            return "LOW"
+        score = float((main_pick.get("betting_brain") or {}).get("score", 0.0) or 0.0)
+        if score >= 82.0:
+            return "HIGH"
+        if score >= 72.0:
+            return "MEDIUM"
+        return "LOW"
+
+    @staticmethod
+    def _top_decisions(decisions: List[Dict[str, Any]]) -> List[Dict[str, Any]]:
+        ordered = sorted(decisions, key=lambda d: float(d.get("score", 0.0) or 0.0), reverse=True)
+        return [
+            {
+                "action": item.get("action"),
+                "score": item.get("score"),
+                "summary": item.get("summary"),
+                "vetoes": item.get("vetoes", []),
+                "issues": item.get("issues", []),
+            }
+            for item in ordered[:5]
+        ]
+
+    @staticmethod
+    def _summary(action: str, market: str, pick: str, positives: List[str], issues: List[str], vetoes: List[str]) -> str:
+        if action == "BET":
+            return f"{market} {pick} approved: evidence is aligned enough for a controlled stake."
+        if action == "WATCH":
+            return f"{market} {pick} is interesting but not clean enough for stake."
+        if vetoes:
+            return f"{market} {pick} rejected: {', '.join(vetoes[:3])}."
+        if issues:
+            return f"{market} {pick} rejected: {', '.join(issues[:3])}."
+        return f"{market} {pick} rejected by evidence score."
+
+    def _market_probability(self, row: Dict[str, Any], package: Dict[str, Any]) -> Optional[float]:
+        direct = self._safe_float(row.get("probability"))
+        if direct is not None:
+            return direct
+        board = package.get("market_board") or {}
+        payload = board.get(str(row.get("market") or "")) if isinstance(board, dict) else None
+        probs = payload.get("probs") if isinstance(payload, dict) else None
+        if not isinstance(probs, dict):
+            return None
+        key = self._prob_key(str(row.get("market") or ""), str(row.get("pick") or ""))
+        return self._safe_float(probs.get(key)) if key else None
+
+    def _v27_probability(self, market: str, pick: str, v27_engine: Dict[str, Any]) -> Optional[float]:
+        predictions = v27_engine.get("predictions") or {}
+        ms = predictions.get("ms") or {}
+        ou25 = predictions.get("ou25") or {}
+        if market == "MS":
+            return self._safe_float(ms.get({"1": "home", "X": "draw", "2": "away"}.get(pick, "")))
+        if market == "DC":
+            home = self._safe_float(ms.get("home"), 0.0) or 0.0
+            draw = self._safe_float(ms.get("draw"), 0.0) or 0.0
+            away = self._safe_float(ms.get("away"), 0.0) or 0.0
+            return {"1X": home + draw, "X2": draw + away, "12": home + away}.get(pick)
+        if market == "OU25":
+            key = self._prob_key(market, pick)
+            return self._safe_float(ou25.get(key)) if key else None
+        return None
+
+    def _triple_value(self, package: Dict[str, Any], key: Optional[str]) -> Optional[Dict[str, Any]]:
+        if not key:
+            return None
+        value = ((package.get("v27_engine") or {}).get("triple_value") or {}).get(key)
+        return value if isinstance(value, dict) else None
+
+    def _triple_key(self, market: str, pick: str) -> Optional[str]:
+        prob_key = self._prob_key(market, pick)
+        if market == "MS":
+            return {"1": "home", "2": "away"}.get(pick)
+        if market == "DC" and pick.upper() in {"1X", "X2", "12"}:
+            return f"dc_{pick.lower()}"
+        if market in {"OU15", "OU25", "OU35"} and prob_key == "over":
+            return f"{market.lower()}_over"
+        if market == "BTTS" and prob_key == "yes":
+            return "btts_yes"
+        if market == "HT":
+            return {"1": "ht_home", "2": "ht_away"}.get(pick)
+        if market in {"HT_OU05", "HT_OU15"} and prob_key == "over":
+            return f"{market.lower()}_over"
+        if market == "OE" and prob_key == "odd":
+            return "oe_odd"
+        if market == "CARDS" and prob_key == "over":
+            return "cards_over"
+        if market == "HTFT" and "/" in pick:
+            return f"htft_{pick.replace('/', '').lower()}"
+        return None
+
+    @staticmethod
+    def _prob_key(market: str, pick: str) -> Optional[str]:
+        norm = str(pick or "").strip().casefold()
+        if market in {"MS", "HT", "HCAP"}:
+            return pick if pick in {"1", "X", "2"} else None
+        if market == "DC":
+            return pick.upper() if pick.upper() in {"1X", "X2", "12"} else None
+        if market in {"OU15", "OU25", "OU35", "HT_OU05", "HT_OU15", "CARDS"}:
+            if "over" in norm or "ust" in norm or "üst" in norm:
+                return "over"
+            if "under" in norm or "alt" in norm:
+                return "under"
+        if market == "BTTS":
+            if "yes" in norm or "var" in norm:
+                return "yes"
+            if "no" in norm or "yok" in norm:
+                return "no"
+        if market == "OE":
+            if "odd" in norm or "tek" in norm:
+                return "odd"
+            if "even" in norm or "cift" in norm or "çift" in norm:
+                return "even"
+        if market == "HTFT" and "/" in pick:
+            return pick
+        return None
+
+    @staticmethod
+    def _safe_float(value: Any, default: Optional[float] = None) -> Optional[float]:
+        try:
+            return float(value)
+        except (TypeError, ValueError):
+            return default
@@ -14,11 +14,40 @@ is missing or queries fail.

 from __future__ import annotations

+import unicodedata
 from typing import Any, Dict, Optional, Tuple

 from psycopg2.extras import RealDictCursor


+# ─── Turkish Name Normalization ──────────────────────────────────
+
+_TR_CHAR_MAP = str.maketrans(
+    'çÇğĞıİöÖşŞüÜâÂîÎûÛ',
+    'cCgGiIoOsSuUaAiIuU',
+)
+
+
+def _normalize_name(name: str) -> str:
+    """
+    Normalize a Turkish referee name for fuzzy matching.
+
+    Strips accents, lowercases, removes extra whitespace, and maps
+    Turkish-specific characters to their ASCII equivalents.
+    """
+    if not name:
+        return ''
+    # 1. Turkish-specific character mapping
+    normalized = name.translate(_TR_CHAR_MAP)
+    # 2. Unicode NFKD decomposition → strip combining marks
+    normalized = unicodedata.normalize('NFKD', normalized)
+    normalized = ''.join(
+        c for c in normalized if not unicodedata.combining(c)
+    )
+    # 3. Lowercase + collapse whitespace
+    return ' '.join(normalized.lower().split())
+
+
 class FeatureEnrichmentService:
    """Stateless service — all state comes from DB via cursor."""

@@ -380,34 +409,20 @@ class FeatureEnrichmentService:
        """
        Referee tendencies: home win bias, avg goals, card rates.
        Matches referee by name in match_officials (role_id=1 = Orta Hakem).
+
+        Uses Turkish-aware fuzzy matching as a fallback when exact name
+        lookup returns zero results.
        """
        if not referee_name:
            return dict(self._DEFAULT_REFEREE)
-        try:
-            # Get match IDs officiated by this referee
-            cur.execute(
-                """
-                SELECT
-                    m.home_team_id,
-                    m.score_home,
-                    m.score_away,
-                    m.id AS match_id
-                FROM match_officials mo
-                JOIN matches m ON m.id = mo.match_id
-                WHERE mo.name = %s
-                  AND mo.role_id = 1
-                  AND m.status = 'FT'
-                  AND m.score_home IS NOT NULL
-                  AND m.score_away IS NOT NULL
-                  AND m.mst_utc < %s
-                ORDER BY m.mst_utc DESC
-                LIMIT %s
-                """,
-                (referee_name, before_date_ms, limit),
+
+        rows = self._query_referee_matches(cur, referee_name, before_date_ms, limit)
+
+        # Fuzzy fallback: if exact match fails, try normalized name search
+        if not rows:
+            rows = self._fuzzy_referee_lookup(
+                cur, referee_name, before_date_ms, limit,
            )
-            rows = cur.fetchall()
-        except Exception:
-            return dict(self._DEFAULT_REFEREE)

        if not rows:
            return dict(self._DEFAULT_REFEREE)
@@ -459,6 +474,118 @@ class FeatureEnrichmentService:
            'experience': total,
        }

+    def _query_referee_matches(
+        self,
+        cur: RealDictCursor,
+        referee_name: str,
+        before_date_ms: int,
+        limit: int,
+    ) -> list:
+        """Exact-match referee lookup in match_officials."""
+        try:
+            cur.execute(
+                """
+                SELECT
+                    m.home_team_id,
+                    m.score_home,
+                    m.score_away,
+                    m.id AS match_id
+                FROM match_officials mo
+                JOIN matches m ON m.id = mo.match_id
+                WHERE mo.name = %s
+                  AND mo.role_id = 1
+                  AND m.status = 'FT'
+                  AND m.score_home IS NOT NULL
+                  AND m.score_away IS NOT NULL
+                  AND m.mst_utc < %s
+                ORDER BY m.mst_utc DESC
+                LIMIT %s
+                """,
+                (referee_name, before_date_ms, limit),
+            )
+            return cur.fetchall()
+        except Exception:
+            return []
+
+    def _fuzzy_referee_lookup(
+        self,
+        cur: RealDictCursor,
+        referee_name: str,
+        before_date_ms: int,
+        limit: int,
+    ) -> list:
+        """
+        Fuzzy referee lookup using Turkish name normalization.
+
+        Strategy: fetch recent distinct referee names from match_officials,
+        normalize both the query name and each candidate, and pick the
+        best match.  This handles common mismatches like:
+          - 'Hüseyin Göçek' vs 'Huseyin Gocek'
+          - 'Ali Palabıyık' vs 'Ali Palabiyik'
+          - Extra/missing middle initials
+        """
+        normalized_query = _normalize_name(referee_name)
+        if not normalized_query:
+            return []
+
+        try:
+            # Fetch candidate referee names (distinct, recent, role=1)
+            cur.execute(
+                """
+                SELECT DISTINCT mo.name
+                FROM match_officials mo
+                JOIN matches m ON m.id = mo.match_id
+                WHERE mo.role_id = 1
+                  AND m.status = 'FT'
+                  AND m.mst_utc < %s
+                ORDER BY mo.name
+                LIMIT 2000
+                """,
+                (before_date_ms,),
+            )
+            candidates = cur.fetchall()
+        except Exception:
+            return []
+
+        if not candidates:
+            return []
+
+        # Find best match by normalized name comparison
+        best_match: Optional[str] = None
+        best_score = 0.0
+
+        for cand_row in candidates:
+            cand_name = cand_row.get('name', '')
+            if not cand_name:
+                continue
+            normalized_cand = _normalize_name(cand_name)
+
+            # Exact normalized match
+            if normalized_cand == normalized_query:
+                best_match = cand_name
+                best_score = 1.0
+                break
+
+            # Substring containment (handles "First Last" vs "First M. Last")
+            if (
+                normalized_query in normalized_cand
+                or normalized_cand in normalized_query
+            ):
+                containment_score = min(
+                    len(normalized_query), len(normalized_cand)
+                ) / max(len(normalized_query), len(normalized_cand))
+                if containment_score > best_score and containment_score > 0.6:
+                    best_match = cand_name
+                    best_score = containment_score
+
+        if not best_match:
+            return []
+
+        # Re-query with the resolved name
+        return self._query_referee_matches(
+            cur, best_match, before_date_ms, limit,
+        )
+
    # ─── 5. League Averages ─────────────────────────────────────────

    def compute_league_averages(
@@ -0,0 +1,367 @@
+"""
+Match Commentary Generator
+===========================
+Generates human-readable Turkish commentary from the analysis package.
+Reads all engine signals (model, odds band, betting brain, triple value)
+and produces a clear, actionable summary for end users.
+
+No LLM required — fully template-based.
+"""
+
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+from typing import Any, Dict, List, Optional
+
+
+def generate_match_commentary(package: Dict[str, Any]) -> Dict[str, Any]:
+    """
+    Main entry point. Takes a full analysis package and returns a commentary dict.
+
+    Returns:
+        {
+            "action": "BET" | "WATCH" | "SKIP",
+            "headline": "...",
+            "summary": "...",
+            "notes": ["...", "..."],
+            "contradictions": ["...", "..."],
+            "confidence_label": "YÜKSEK" | "ORTA" | "DÜŞÜK" | "ÇOK DÜŞÜK"
+        }
+    """
+    match_info = package.get("match_info") or {}
+    home = match_info.get("home_team", "Ev Sahibi")
+    away = match_info.get("away_team", "Deplasman")
+    main_pick = package.get("main_pick") or {}
+    betting_brain = package.get("betting_brain") or {}
+    v27_engine = package.get("v27_engine") or {}
+    market_board = package.get("market_board") or {}
+    score_pred = package.get("score_prediction") or {}
+    risk = package.get("risk") or {}
+    data_quality = package.get("data_quality") or {}
+
+    # ── Determine action ──────────────────────────────────────────
+    brain_decision = str(betting_brain.get("decision") or "NO_BET").upper()
+    main_playable = bool(main_pick.get("playable"))
+    main_vetoed = bool((main_pick.get("upper_brain") or {}).get("veto"))
+    approved_count = int(betting_brain.get("approved_count", 0) or 0)
+
+    if main_playable and not main_vetoed and approved_count > 0:
+        action = "BET"
+    elif approved_count == 0 and brain_decision == "NO_BET":
+        action = "SKIP"
+    else:
+        action = "WATCH"
+
+    # ── Headline ──────────────────────────────────────────────────
+    headline = _build_headline(action, main_pick, home, away)
+
+    # ── Summary paragraph ─────────────────────────────────────────
+    summary = _build_summary(
+        action, main_pick, market_board, v27_engine,
+        score_pred, risk, data_quality, home, away,
+    )
+
+    # ── Quick notes ───────────────────────────────────────────────
+    notes = _build_notes(market_board, v27_engine, score_pred, risk, home, away)
+
+    # ── Contradiction detection ───────────────────────────────────
+    contradictions = _detect_contradictions(market_board, v27_engine, package)
+
+    # ── Overall confidence label ──────────────────────────────────
+    confidence_label = _overall_confidence_label(main_pick, data_quality)
+
+    return {
+        "action": action,
+        "headline": headline,
+        "summary": summary,
+        "notes": notes[:6],
+        "contradictions": contradictions[:4],
+        "confidence_label": confidence_label,
+    }
+
+
+# ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
+#  Headline
+# ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
+
+def _build_headline(
+    action: str,
+    main_pick: Dict[str, Any],
+    home: str,
+    away: str,
+) -> str:
+    if action == "BET":
+        market = main_pick.get("market", "")
+        pick = main_pick.get("pick", "")
+        odds = main_pick.get("odds", 0.0)
+        conf = main_pick.get("calibrated_confidence", main_pick.get("confidence", 0))
+        market_tr = _market_to_turkish(market, pick)
+        return f"🎯 {market_tr} önerisi — Oran: {odds}, Güven: %{conf:.0f}"
+
+    if action == "WATCH":
+        return f"👀 {home} vs {away} — İzlemeye değer sinyaller var"
+
+    return f"⚠️ {home} vs {away} — Şu an net bir fırsat görülmüyor"
+
+
+# ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
+#  Summary
+# ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
+
+def _build_summary(
+    action: str,
+    main_pick: Dict[str, Any],
+    market_board: Dict[str, Any],
+    v27_engine: Dict[str, Any],
+    score_pred: Dict[str, Any],
+    risk: Dict[str, Any],
+    data_quality: Dict[str, Any],
+    home: str,
+    away: str,
+) -> str:
+    parts: List[str] = []
+
+    # Who is the favourite?
+    ms_board = market_board.get("MS") or {}
+    ms_pick = ms_board.get("pick", "")
+    ms_conf = float(ms_board.get("confidence", 50) or 50)
+
+    if ms_pick == "1" and ms_conf > 45:
+        parts.append(f"{home} hafif favori görünüyor")
+    elif ms_pick == "1" and ms_conf > 55:
+        parts.append(f"{home} net favori")
+    elif ms_pick == "2" and ms_conf > 45:
+        parts.append(f"{away} hafif favori görünüyor")
+    elif ms_pick == "2" and ms_conf > 55:
+        parts.append(f"{away} net favori")
+    else:
+        parts.append("İki takım da birbirine yakın güçte")
+
+    # xG expectation
+    xg_home = float(score_pred.get("xg_home", 0) or 0)
+    xg_away = float(score_pred.get("xg_away", 0) or 0)
+    xg_total = xg_home + xg_away
+    if xg_total > 3.0:
+        parts.append(f"Gol beklentisi yüksek (toplam xG: {xg_total:.1f})")
+    elif xg_total < 2.0:
+        parts.append(f"Düşük gol beklentisi (toplam xG: {xg_total:.1f})")
+
+    # Consensus check
+    consensus = str(v27_engine.get("consensus") or "").upper()
+    if consensus == "AGREE":
+        parts.append("Model motorları aynı fikirde")
+    elif consensus == "DISAGREE":
+        parts.append("Model motorları farklı sonuçlara ulaşıyor — belirsizlik var")
+
+    # Action-specific
+    if action == "BET":
+        market_tr = _market_to_turkish(
+            main_pick.get("market", ""), main_pick.get("pick", "")
+        )
+        edge = float(main_pick.get("ev_edge", 0) or 0)
+        parts.append(
+            f"{market_tr} yönünde değer tespit edildi (EV edge: {edge:+.1%})"
+        )
+    elif action == "SKIP":
+        parts.append(
+            "Hiçbir markette piyasanın fiyatlamadığı bir avantaj görülmüyor"
+        )
+
+    # Risk
+    risk_level = str(risk.get("level") or "MEDIUM").upper()
+    if risk_level == "HIGH":
+        parts.append("⚠️ Risk seviyesi yüksek")
+    elif risk_level == "EXTREME":
+        parts.append("🔴 Çok yüksek risk — dikkatli olun")
+
+    # Data quality
+    quality_label = str(data_quality.get("label") or "MEDIUM").upper()
+    if quality_label == "LOW":
+        parts.append("Veri kalitesi düşük — tahminler daha az güvenilir")
+
+    return ". ".join(parts) + "."
+
+
+# ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
+#  Quick Notes
+# ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
+
+def _build_notes(
+    market_board: Dict[str, Any],
+    v27_engine: Dict[str, Any],
+    score_pred: Dict[str, Any],
+    risk: Dict[str, Any],
+    home: str,
+    away: str,
+) -> List[str]:
+    notes: List[str] = []
+    triple_value = v27_engine.get("triple_value") or {}
+    odds_band = v27_engine.get("odds_band") or {}
+
+    # MS note
+    ms = market_board.get("MS") or {}
+    ms_conf = float(ms.get("confidence", 0) or 0)
+    if ms_conf < 45:
+        notes.append("Maç sonucu belirsiz, net favori yok")
+    elif ms.get("pick") == "1":
+        notes.append(f"{home} favori ama oran değerli mi kontrol et")
+    elif ms.get("pick") == "2":
+        notes.append(f"{away} favori ama oran değerli mi kontrol et")
+
+    # OU25 note
+    ou25 = market_board.get("OU25") or {}
+    ou25_probs = ou25.get("probs") or {}
+    over_prob = float(ou25_probs.get("over", 0.5) or 0.5)
+    if over_prob > 0.58:
+        notes.append("2.5 Üst yönünde eğilim var")
+    elif over_prob < 0.42:
+        notes.append("2.5 Alt yönünde eğilim var")
+    else:
+        notes.append("2.5 Üst/Alt dengeli — kesin sinyal yok")
+
+    # BTTS note
+    btts = market_board.get("BTTS") or {}
+    btts_probs = btts.get("probs") or {}
+    btts_yes = float(btts_probs.get("yes", 0.5) or 0.5)
+    if btts_yes > 0.58:
+        notes.append("Her iki takımın da gol atması bekleniyor")
+    elif btts_yes < 0.42:
+        notes.append("KG olasılığı düşük")
+
+    # HT note
+    ht = market_board.get("HT") or {}
+    ht_pick = ht.get("pick", "")
+    ht_conf = float(ht.get("confidence", 0) or 0)
+    if ht_conf > 40 and ht_pick:
+        ht_label = {"1": f"İY {home}", "2": f"İY {away}", "X": "İY beraberlik"}.get(
+            ht_pick, f"İY {ht_pick}"
+        )
+        notes.append(f"{ht_label} yönünde hafif sinyal (%{ht_conf:.0f})")
+
+    # Risk warnings
+    warnings = risk.get("warnings") or []
+    for w in warnings[:2]:
+        notes.append(f"⚠️ {w}")
+
+    return notes
+
+
+# ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
+#  Contradiction Detection
+# ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
+
+def _detect_contradictions(
+    market_board: Dict[str, Any],
+    v27_engine: Dict[str, Any],
+    package: Dict[str, Any],
+) -> List[str]:
+    """
+    Detect cases where model prediction and odds band/triple value
+    point in opposite directions — the user's main complaint.
+    """
+    contradictions: List[str] = []
+    triple_value = v27_engine.get("triple_value") or {}
+    predictions = v27_engine.get("predictions") or {}
+
+    # MS contradiction: model says home but triple_value says away has value
+    ms_preds = predictions.get("ms") or {}
+    ms_home = float(ms_preds.get("home", 0) or 0)
+    ms_away = float(ms_preds.get("away", 0) or 0)
+    home_triple = triple_value.get("home") or {}
+    away_triple = triple_value.get("away") or {}
+
+    model_favours_home = ms_home > ms_away
+    away_is_value = bool(away_triple.get("is_value"))
+    home_is_value = bool(home_triple.get("is_value"))
+
+    if model_favours_home and away_is_value:
+        contradictions.append(
+            "Model ev sahibini favori görüyor ama oran bandı deplasmanda değer buluyor — "
+            "bu çelişki nedeniyle MS tahminine dikkatli yaklaş"
+        )
+    elif not model_favours_home and home_is_value:
+        contradictions.append(
+            "Model deplasmanı favori görüyor ama oran bandı ev sahibinde değer buluyor — "
+            "bu çelişki nedeniyle MS tahminine dikkatli yaklaş"
+        )
+
+    # HT contradiction
+    ht_board = market_board.get("HT") or {}
+    ht_pick = ht_board.get("pick", "")
+    ht_home_triple = triple_value.get("ht_home") or {}
+    ht_away_triple = triple_value.get("ht_away") or {}
+
+    if ht_pick == "1" and bool(ht_away_triple.get("is_value")):
+        contradictions.append(
+            "Model İY ev sahibi diyor ama oran bandı İY deplasmanda değer buluyor — "
+            "İY tahmini güvenilir değil"
+        )
+    elif ht_pick == "2" and bool(ht_home_triple.get("is_value")):
+        contradictions.append(
+            "Model İY deplasman diyor ama oran bandı İY ev sahibinde değer buluyor — "
+            "İY tahmini güvenilir değil"
+        )
+
+    # OU25 contradiction
+    ou25_board = market_board.get("OU25") or {}
+    ou25_pick = ou25_board.get("pick", "")
+    ou25_over_triple = triple_value.get("ou25_over") or {}
+    ou25_under_triple = triple_value.get("ou25_under") or {}
+
+    if ou25_pick == "Üst" and bool(ou25_under_triple.get("is_value")):
+        contradictions.append(
+            "Model 2.5 Üst diyor ama oran bandı 2.5 Alt'ta değer buluyor — çelişki var"
+        )
+    elif ou25_pick == "Alt" and bool(ou25_over_triple.get("is_value")):
+        contradictions.append(
+            "Model 2.5 Alt diyor ama oran bandı 2.5 Üst'te değer buluyor — çelişki var"
+        )
+
+    return contradictions
+
+
+# ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
+#  Helpers
+# ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
+
+def _overall_confidence_label(
+    main_pick: Dict[str, Any],
+    data_quality: Dict[str, Any],
+) -> str:
+    """Overall confidence label for the entire analysis."""
+    quality_score = float(data_quality.get("score", 0.5) or 0.5)
+    main_conf = float(
+        main_pick.get("calibrated_confidence", main_pick.get("confidence", 0)) or 0
+    )
+    main_playable = bool(main_pick.get("playable"))
+
+    if main_playable and main_conf >= 60 and quality_score >= 0.8:
+        return "YÜKSEK"
+    if main_playable and main_conf >= 45:
+        return "ORTA"
+    if main_conf >= 30:
+        return "DÜŞÜK"
+    return "ÇOK DÜŞÜK"
+
+
+_MARKET_TR_MAP = {
+    "MS": {"1": "Maç Sonucu Ev Sahibi", "2": "Maç Sonucu Deplasman", "X": "Beraberlik"},
+    "DC": {"1X": "Çifte Şans 1X", "X2": "Çifte Şans X2", "12": "Çifte Şans 12"},
+    "OU25": {"Üst": "2.5 Üst", "Alt": "2.5 Alt", "Over": "2.5 Üst", "Under": "2.5 Alt"},
+    "OU15": {"Üst": "1.5 Üst", "Alt": "1.5 Alt", "Over": "1.5 Üst", "Under": "1.5 Alt"},
+    "OU35": {"Üst": "3.5 Üst", "Alt": "3.5 Alt", "Over": "3.5 Üst", "Under": "3.5 Alt"},
+    "BTTS": {"KG Var": "Karşılıklı Gol Var", "KG Yok": "Karşılıklı Gol Yok",
+             "Yes": "Karşılıklı Gol Var", "No": "Karşılıklı Gol Yok"},
+    "HT": {"1": "İlk Yarı Ev Sahibi", "2": "İlk Yarı Deplasman", "X": "İlk Yarı Beraberlik"},
+    "HT_OU05": {"Üst": "İY 0.5 Üst", "Alt": "İY 0.5 Alt"},
+    "HT_OU15": {"Üst": "İY 1.5 Üst", "Alt": "İY 1.5 Alt"},
+    "OE": {"Tek": "Tek", "Çift": "Çift", "Odd": "Tek", "Even": "Çift"},
+    "CARDS": {"Üst": "Kart Üst", "Alt": "Kart Alt"},
+}
+
+
+def _market_to_turkish(market: str, pick: str) -> str:
+    market_map = _MARKET_TR_MAP.get(market, {})
+    result = market_map.get(pick)
+    if result:
+        return result
+    return f"{market} {pick}"
@@ -1,7 +0,0 @@
-import os, psycopg2
-from dotenv import load_dotenv
-load_dotenv('/Users/piton/Documents/Suggest-Bet-BE/.env')
-conn = psycopg2.connect(os.getenv('DATABASE_URL').split('?')[0])
-cur = conn.cursor()
-cur.execute('SELECT mpe.match_id, SUM(CASE WHEN event_type::text LIKE \'%yellow_card%\' THEN 1 WHEN event_type::text LIKE \'%red_card%\' THEN 2 ELSE 1 END) as cards FROM match_player_events mpe WHERE event_type::text LIKE \'%card%\' GROUP BY mpe.match_id LIMIT 5')
-print(cur.fetchall())
@@ -1,56 +0,0 @@
-"""Quick test: V20+Quant integration — EV Edge, Kelly staking, edge-based grading."""
-import json
-from services.single_match_orchestrator import SingleMatchOrchestrator
-
-MATCH_IDS = [
-    "er7n8hqndkhvdsg6an72r7h90",  # Def. Justicia vs Atl Lanus
-    "etpay8k4qr3gts3jjidfebaxg",  # CA Tigre vs Gymnasia
-]
-
-o = SingleMatchOrchestrator()
-
-for mid in MATCH_IDS:
-    print(f"\n{'='*60}")
-    print(f"MATCH: {mid}")
-    print(f"{'='*60}")
-    r = o.analyze_match(mid)
-    if not r:
-        print("  Match not found")
-        continue
-
-    info = r.get("match_info", {})
-    print(f"  {info.get('match_name', '?')} | {info.get('league', '?')}")
-
-    mp = r.get("main_pick", {})
-    print(f"\n  MAIN PICK: {mp.get('market')} {mp.get('pick')}")
-    print(f"    probability:  {mp.get('probability', 0):.4f}")
-    print(f"    odds:         {mp.get('odds', 0):.2f}")
-    print(f"    ev_edge:      {mp.get('ev_edge', mp.get('edge', 0)):+.4f}")
-    print(f"    implied_prob: {mp.get('implied_prob', 0):.4f}")
-    print(f"    bet_grade:    {mp.get('bet_grade', 'N/A')}")
-    print(f"    stake_units:  {mp.get('stake_units', 0)}")
-    print(f"    playable:     {mp.get('playable', False)}")
-    print(f"    reasons:      {mp.get('decision_reasons', [])}")
-
-    print(f"\n  ALL MARKETS (with EV Edge + Kelly):")
-    for b in r.get("bet_summary", []):
-        ev = b.get("ev_edge", 0)
-        imp = b.get("implied_prob", 0)
-        flag = ">>>" if b.get("playable") else "   "
-        mkt = b["market"]
-        pick = b["pick"]
-        odds = b.get("odds", 0)
-        grade = b["bet_grade"]
-        stake = b["stake_units"]
-        conf = b.get("calibrated_confidence", 0)
-        print(
-            f"    {flag} {mkt:8s} {pick:12s} "
-            f"ev_edge={ev:+.3f}  "
-            f"odds={odds:.2f}  "
-            f"stake={stake:.1f}  "
-            f"grade={grade:4s}  "
-            f"conf={conf:.1f}%  "
-            f"implied={imp:.3f}"
-        )
-
-    print()
@@ -1,75 +0,0 @@
-import sys
-import unittest
-from decimal import Decimal
-from pathlib import Path
-from unittest.mock import MagicMock
-
-AI_ENGINE_ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[1]
-if str(AI_ENGINE_ROOT) not in sys.path:
-    sys.path.insert(0, str(AI_ENGINE_ROOT))
-
-from core.engines.odds_predictor import OddsPredictorEngine
-from features.sidelined_analyzer import SidelinedAnalyzer
-
-
-class EngineNullSafetyTests(unittest.TestCase):
-    def test_odds_predictor_accepts_decimal_inputs_without_crashing(self):
-        engine = OddsPredictorEngine()
-
-        prediction = engine.predict(
-            odds_data={
-                "ms_h": Decimal("2.10"),
-                "ms_d": Decimal("3.25"),
-                "ms_a": Decimal("3.60"),
-                "ou25_o": Decimal("1.90"),
-            },
-        )
-
-        self.assertGreater(prediction.market_home_prob, 0.0)
-        self.assertGreater(prediction.market_draw_prob, 0.0)
-        self.assertGreater(prediction.market_away_prob, 0.0)
-
-    def test_sidelined_analyzer_handles_non_numeric_fields(self):
-        analyzer = SidelinedAnalyzer.__new__(SidelinedAnalyzer)
-        analyzer.position_weights = {"K": 0.35, "D": 0.20, "O": 0.25, "F": 0.30}
-        analyzer.max_rating = 10
-        analyzer.adaptation_threshold = 10
-        analyzer.adaptation_discount = 0.5
-        analyzer.goalkeeper_penalty = 0.15
-        analyzer.confidence_boost = 10
-        analyzer.max_impact = 0.85
-        analyzer.key_player_threshold = 3
-        analyzer.recent_matches_lookback = 15
-        analyzer._fetch_player_stats = MagicMock(return_value={})
-
-        result = analyzer.analyze(
-            {
-                "totalSidelined": 2,
-                "players": [
-                    {
-                        "playerId": "p1",
-                        "playerName": "Player One",
-                        "positionShort": "O",
-                        "matchesMissed": "N/A",
-                        "average": "?",
-                        "type": "injury",
-                    },
-                    {
-                        "playerId": "p2",
-                        "playerName": "Player Two",
-                        "positionShort": "K",
-                        "matchesMissed": "12",
-                        "average": "6.7",
-                        "type": "suspension",
-                    },
-                ],
-            },
-        )
-
-        self.assertEqual(result.total_sidelined, 2)
-        self.assertGreaterEqual(result.impact_score, 0.0)
-        self.assertTrue(len(result.player_details) >= 2)
-
-
-if __name__ == "__main__":
-    unittest.main()
@@ -1,282 +0,0 @@
-"""
-Unit tests for FeatureEnrichmentService
-========================================
-Tests all 6 enrichment methods with mocked DB cursor:
-  1. compute_team_stats
-  2. compute_h2h
-  3. compute_form_streaks
-  4. compute_referee_stats
-  5. compute_league_averages
-  6. compute_momentum
-"""
-
-import sys
-import unittest
-from pathlib import Path
-from unittest.mock import MagicMock, patch
-
-AI_ENGINE_ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[1]
-if str(AI_ENGINE_ROOT) not in sys.path:
-    sys.path.insert(0, str(AI_ENGINE_ROOT))
-
-from services.feature_enrichment import FeatureEnrichmentService, _safe_avg
-
-
-def _make_cursor(rows=None, side_effect=None):
-    """Create a mock RealDictCursor."""
-    cur = MagicMock()
-    if side_effect:
-        cur.execute.side_effect = side_effect
-    else:
-        cur.fetchall.return_value = rows or []
-        cur.fetchone.return_value = rows[0] if rows else None
-    return cur
-
-
-class TestSafeAvg(unittest.TestCase):
-    def test_returns_average(self):
-        self.assertAlmostEqual(_safe_avg([2.0, 4.0, 6.0], 0.0), 4.0)
-
-    def test_returns_default_on_empty(self):
-        self.assertEqual(_safe_avg([], 99.0), 99.0)
-
-    def test_single_value(self):
-        self.assertAlmostEqual(_safe_avg([7.5], 0.0), 7.5)
-
-
-class TestComputeTeamStats(unittest.TestCase):
-    def setUp(self):
-        self.svc = FeatureEnrichmentService()
-        self.ts = 1700000000000
-
-    def test_returns_defaults_when_no_team_id(self):
-        result = self.svc.compute_team_stats(MagicMock(), '', self.ts)
-        self.assertEqual(result, FeatureEnrichmentService._DEFAULT_TEAM_STATS)
-
-    def test_returns_defaults_when_no_rows(self):
-        cur = _make_cursor(rows=[])
-        result = self.svc.compute_team_stats(cur, 'team1', self.ts)
-        self.assertEqual(result, FeatureEnrichmentService._DEFAULT_TEAM_STATS)
-
-    def test_returns_defaults_on_db_error(self):
-        cur = _make_cursor(side_effect=Exception('DB down'))
-        result = self.svc.compute_team_stats(cur, 'team1', self.ts)
-        self.assertEqual(result, FeatureEnrichmentService._DEFAULT_TEAM_STATS)
-
-    def test_calculates_averages_correctly(self):
-        rows = [
-            {'possession_percentage': 60.0, 'shots_on_target': 5, 'total_shots': 10, 'corners': 7},
-            {'possession_percentage': 40.0, 'shots_on_target': 3, 'total_shots': 12, 'corners': 3},
-        ]
-        cur = _make_cursor(rows)
-        result = self.svc.compute_team_stats(cur, 'team1', self.ts)
-
-        self.assertAlmostEqual(result['avg_possession'], 50.0)
-        self.assertAlmostEqual(result['avg_shots_on_target'], 4.0)
-        self.assertAlmostEqual(result['shot_conversion'], (5 / 10 + 3 / 12) / 2, places=4)
-        self.assertAlmostEqual(result['avg_corners'], 5.0)
-
-    def test_handles_none_subfields_gracefully(self):
-        """Rows with None values should be skipped, not crash."""
-        rows = [
-            {'possession_percentage': 55.0, 'shots_on_target': None, 'total_shots': None, 'corners': 4},
-            {'possession_percentage': None, 'shots_on_target': 2, 'total_shots': 8, 'corners': None},
-        ]
-        cur = _make_cursor(rows)
-        result = self.svc.compute_team_stats(cur, 'team1', self.ts)
-
-        self.assertAlmostEqual(result['avg_possession'], 55.0)
-        self.assertAlmostEqual(result['avg_shots_on_target'], 2.0)
-        self.assertAlmostEqual(result['avg_corners'], 4.0)
-
-
-class TestComputeH2H(unittest.TestCase):
-    def setUp(self):
-        self.svc = FeatureEnrichmentService()
-        self.ts = 1700000000000
-
-    def test_returns_defaults_when_no_ids(self):
-        result = self.svc.compute_h2h(MagicMock(), '', 'away1', self.ts)
-        self.assertEqual(result, FeatureEnrichmentService._DEFAULT_H2H)
-
-    def test_returns_defaults_when_no_rows(self):
-        cur = _make_cursor(rows=[])
-        result = self.svc.compute_h2h(cur, 'home1', 'away1', self.ts)
-        self.assertEqual(result, FeatureEnrichmentService._DEFAULT_H2H)
-
-    def test_calculates_h2h_stats(self):
-        rows = [
-            {'home_team_id': 'home1', 'away_team_id': 'away1', 'score_home': 2, 'score_away': 1},  # home win, btts, over25
-            {'home_team_id': 'home1', 'away_team_id': 'away1', 'score_home': 0, 'score_away': 0},  # draw, no btts, no over25
-            {'home_team_id': 'away1', 'away_team_id': 'home1', 'score_home': 1, 'score_away': 3},  # reversed: home wins again, btts, over25
-            {'home_team_id': 'away1', 'away_team_id': 'home1', 'score_home': 2, 'score_away': 0},  # reversed: away(=home1) lost
-        ]
-        cur = _make_cursor(rows)
-        result = self.svc.compute_h2h(cur, 'home1', 'away1', self.ts)
-
-        self.assertEqual(result['total_matches'], 4)
-        self.assertAlmostEqual(result['home_win_rate'], 2 / 4)
-        self.assertAlmostEqual(result['draw_rate'], 1 / 4)
-        self.assertAlmostEqual(result['btts_rate'], 2 / 4)
-        self.assertAlmostEqual(result['over25_rate'], 2 / 4)
-
-    def test_returns_defaults_on_db_error(self):
-        cur = _make_cursor(side_effect=Exception('connection lost'))
-        result = self.svc.compute_h2h(cur, 'home1', 'away1', self.ts)
-        self.assertEqual(result, FeatureEnrichmentService._DEFAULT_H2H)
-
-
-class TestComputeFormStreaks(unittest.TestCase):
-    def setUp(self):
-        self.svc = FeatureEnrichmentService()
-        self.ts = 1700000000000
-
-    def test_returns_defaults_when_no_team_id(self):
-        result = self.svc.compute_form_streaks(MagicMock(), '', self.ts)
-        self.assertEqual(result, FeatureEnrichmentService._DEFAULT_FORM)
-
-    def test_calculates_streaks_correctly(self):
-        """Most recent first: W, W, D, L → winning_streak=2, unbeaten_streak=3."""
-        rows = [
-            {'home_team_id': 'team1', 'away_team_id': 'x', 'score_home': 2, 'score_away': 0},  # W (clean sheet, scored)
-            {'home_team_id': 'team1', 'away_team_id': 'x', 'score_home': 1, 'score_away': 0},  # W (clean sheet, scored)
-            {'home_team_id': 'x', 'away_team_id': 'team1', 'score_home': 1, 'score_away': 1},  # D (scored, conceded)
-            {'home_team_id': 'team1', 'away_team_id': 'x', 'score_home': 0, 'score_away': 2},  # L (not scored, conceded)
-        ]
-        cur = _make_cursor(rows)
-        result = self.svc.compute_form_streaks(cur, 'team1', self.ts)
-
-        self.assertEqual(result['winning_streak'], 2)
-        self.assertEqual(result['unbeaten_streak'], 3)
-        self.assertAlmostEqual(result['clean_sheet_rate'], 2 / 4)
-        self.assertAlmostEqual(result['scoring_rate'], 3 / 4)
-
-    def test_all_losses(self):
-        rows = [
-            {'home_team_id': 'team1', 'away_team_id': 'x', 'score_home': 0, 'score_away': 1},
-            {'home_team_id': 'team1', 'away_team_id': 'x', 'score_home': 0, 'score_away': 3},
-        ]
-        cur = _make_cursor(rows)
-        result = self.svc.compute_form_streaks(cur, 'team1', self.ts)
-
-        self.assertEqual(result['winning_streak'], 0)
-        self.assertEqual(result['unbeaten_streak'], 0)
-        self.assertAlmostEqual(result['scoring_rate'], 0.0)
-
-
-class TestComputeRefereeStats(unittest.TestCase):
-    def setUp(self):
-        self.svc = FeatureEnrichmentService()
-        self.ts = 1700000000000
-
-    def test_returns_defaults_when_no_name(self):
-        result = self.svc.compute_referee_stats(MagicMock(), None, self.ts)
-        self.assertEqual(result, FeatureEnrichmentService._DEFAULT_REFEREE)
-
-    def test_calculates_referee_tendencies(self):
-        match_rows = [
-            {'home_team_id': 'h1', 'score_home': 2, 'score_away': 0, 'match_id': 'm1'},  # home win
-            {'home_team_id': 'h2', 'score_home': 1, 'score_away': 1, 'match_id': 'm2'},  # draw
-        ]
-        card_row = {'yellows': 6, 'total_cards': 8}
-
-        cur = MagicMock()
-        # First execute (match query) → match_rows
-        # Second execute (card query) → card_row
-        cur.fetchall.return_value = match_rows
-        cur.fetchone.return_value = card_row
-
-        result = self.svc.compute_referee_stats(cur, 'Ref Name', self.ts)
-
-        self.assertEqual(result['experience'], 2)
-        self.assertAlmostEqual(result['avg_goals'], (2 + 0 + 1 + 1) / 2)
-        # home_bias = (1/2) - 0.46 = 0.04
-        self.assertAlmostEqual(result['home_bias'], 0.04, places=4)
-        self.assertAlmostEqual(result['avg_yellow'], 6 / 2)
-        self.assertAlmostEqual(result['cards_total'], 8 / 2)
-
-    def test_returns_defaults_on_db_error(self):
-        cur = _make_cursor(side_effect=Exception('timeout'))
-        result = self.svc.compute_referee_stats(cur, 'Some Ref', self.ts)
-        self.assertEqual(result, FeatureEnrichmentService._DEFAULT_REFEREE)
-
-
-class TestComputeLeagueAverages(unittest.TestCase):
-    def setUp(self):
-        self.svc = FeatureEnrichmentService()
-        self.ts = 1700000000000
-
-    def test_returns_defaults_when_no_league_id(self):
-        result = self.svc.compute_league_averages(MagicMock(), None, self.ts)
-        self.assertEqual(result, FeatureEnrichmentService._DEFAULT_LEAGUE)
-
-    def test_calculates_league_averages(self):
-        rows = [
-            {'score_home': 1, 'score_away': 1},  # 2 goals
-            {'score_home': 0, 'score_away': 0},  # 0 goals (zero-goal match)
-            {'score_home': 3, 'score_away': 2},  # 5 goals
-        ]
-        cur = _make_cursor(rows)
-        result = self.svc.compute_league_averages(cur, 'league1', self.ts)
-
-        self.assertAlmostEqual(result['avg_goals'], 7 / 3, places=4)
-        self.assertAlmostEqual(result['zero_goal_rate'], 1 / 3, places=4)
-
-
-class TestComputeMomentum(unittest.TestCase):
-    def setUp(self):
-        self.svc = FeatureEnrichmentService()
-        self.ts = 1700000000000
-
-    def test_returns_zero_when_no_team_id(self):
-        result = self.svc.compute_momentum(MagicMock(), '', self.ts)
-        self.assertEqual(result, 0.0)
-
-    def test_returns_zero_when_no_rows(self):
-        cur = _make_cursor(rows=[])
-        result = self.svc.compute_momentum(cur, 'team1', self.ts)
-        self.assertEqual(result, 0.0)
-
-    def test_all_wins_returns_one(self):
-        """All wins → momentum = 1.0 (max possible)."""
-        rows = [
-            {'home_team_id': 'team1', 'score_home': 3, 'score_away': 0},
-            {'home_team_id': 'team1', 'score_home': 2, 'score_away': 1},
-        ]
-        cur = _make_cursor(rows)
-        result = self.svc.compute_momentum(cur, 'team1', self.ts)
-        self.assertAlmostEqual(result, 1.0, places=4)
-
-    def test_all_losses_returns_negative(self):
-        """All losses → negative momentum."""
-        rows = [
-            {'home_team_id': 'team1', 'score_home': 0, 'score_away': 2},
-            {'home_team_id': 'team1', 'score_home': 1, 'score_away': 3},
-        ]
-        cur = _make_cursor(rows)
-        result = self.svc.compute_momentum(cur, 'team1', self.ts)
-        self.assertLess(result, 0.0)
-
-    def test_mixed_results(self):
-        """W, D, L → weighted score between -1 and 1."""
-        rows = [
-            {'home_team_id': 'team1', 'score_home': 1, 'score_away': 0},  # W (weight=3)
-            {'home_team_id': 'x', 'away_team_id': 'team1', 'score_home': 0, 'score_away': 0},  # D (weight=2)
-            {'home_team_id': 'team1', 'score_home': 0, 'score_away': 1},  # L (weight=1)
-        ]
-        cur = _make_cursor(rows)
-        result = self.svc.compute_momentum(cur, 'team1', self.ts)
-
-        # weighted = 3*3 + 1*2 + (-1)*1 = 9+2-1 = 10
-        # max_possible = 3*3 + 3*2 + 3*1 = 18
-        # normalised = 10/18 ≈ 0.5556
-        self.assertAlmostEqual(result, round(10 / 18, 4), places=4)
-
-    def test_returns_zero_on_db_error(self):
-        cur = _make_cursor(side_effect=Exception('broken pipe'))
-        result = self.svc.compute_momentum(cur, 'team1', self.ts)
-        self.assertEqual(result, 0.0)
-
-
-if __name__ == '__main__':
-    unittest.main()
@@ -1,110 +0,0 @@
-import asyncio
-import sys
-import unittest
-from pathlib import Path
-from unittest.mock import MagicMock, patch
-
-from fastapi import HTTPException
-
-AI_ENGINE_ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[1]
-if str(AI_ENGINE_ROOT) not in sys.path:
-    sys.path.insert(0, str(AI_ENGINE_ROOT))
-
-import main as ai_main
-
-
-def _run(coro):
-    return asyncio.run(coro)
-
-
-class MainApiFunctionTests(unittest.TestCase):
-    def test_analyze_match_v20plus_returns_payload(self):
-        orchestrator = MagicMock()
-        orchestrator.analyze_match.return_value = {"match_info": {"match_id": "m1"}}
-
-        with patch("main.get_single_match_orchestrator", return_value=orchestrator):
-            result = _run(ai_main.analyze_match_v20plus("m1"))
-
-        self.assertEqual(result["match_info"]["match_id"], "m1")
-
-    def test_analyze_match_v20plus_raises_404(self):
-        orchestrator = MagicMock()
-        orchestrator.analyze_match.return_value = None
-
-        with patch("main.get_single_match_orchestrator", return_value=orchestrator):
-            with self.assertRaises(HTTPException) as ctx:
-                _run(ai_main.analyze_match_v20plus("missing"))
-
-        self.assertEqual(ctx.exception.status_code, 404)
-
-    def test_analyze_match_htms_v20plus_returns_payload(self):
-        orchestrator = MagicMock()
-        orchestrator.analyze_match_htms.return_value = {
-            "status": "ok",
-            "engine_used": "v20plus_top_htms",
-        }
-
-        with patch("main.get_single_match_orchestrator", return_value=orchestrator):
-            result = _run(ai_main.analyze_match_htms_v20plus("m1"))
-
-        self.assertEqual(result["status"], "ok")
-        self.assertEqual(result["engine_used"], "v20plus_top_htms")
-
-    def test_analyze_match_htft_timeout_validation(self):
-        with self.assertRaises(HTTPException) as ctx:
-            _run(ai_main.analyze_match_htft_v20plus("m1", timeout_sec=2))
-
-        self.assertEqual(ctx.exception.status_code, 400)
-
-    def test_generate_coupon_v20plus_forwards_payload(self):
-        orchestrator = MagicMock()
-        orchestrator.build_coupon.return_value = {"bets": []}
-
-        request = ai_main.CouponRequest(
-            match_ids=["m1", "m2"],
-            strategy="SAFE",
-            max_matches=3,
-            min_confidence=70,
-        )
-
-        with patch("main.get_single_match_orchestrator", return_value=orchestrator):
-            result = _run(ai_main.generate_coupon_v20plus(request))
-
-        self.assertEqual(result, {"bets": []})
-        orchestrator.build_coupon.assert_called_once_with(
-            match_ids=["m1", "m2"],
-            strategy="SAFE",
-            max_matches=3,
-            min_confidence=70.0,
-        )
-
-    def test_reversal_watchlist_validation(self):
-        with self.assertRaises(HTTPException) as ctx:
-            _run(ai_main.get_reversal_watchlist_v20plus(count=0))
-        self.assertEqual(ctx.exception.status_code, 400)
-
-    def test_reversal_watchlist_forwards_payload(self):
-        orchestrator = MagicMock()
-        orchestrator.get_reversal_watchlist.return_value = {"watchlist": []}
-
-        with patch("main.get_single_match_orchestrator", return_value=orchestrator):
-            result = _run(
-                ai_main.get_reversal_watchlist_v20plus(
-                    count=12,
-                    horizon_hours=48,
-                    min_score=50.5,
-                    top_leagues_only=True,
-                ),
-            )
-
-        self.assertEqual(result, {"watchlist": []})
-        orchestrator.get_reversal_watchlist.assert_called_once_with(
-            count=12,
-            horizon_hours=48,
-            min_score=50.5,
-            top_leagues_only=True,
-        )
-
-
-if __name__ == "__main__":
-    unittest.main()
@@ -1,768 +0,0 @@
-import json
-import sys
-import unittest
-from pathlib import Path
-from unittest.mock import MagicMock, patch
-
-AI_ENGINE_ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[1]
-if str(AI_ENGINE_ROOT) not in sys.path:
-    sys.path.insert(0, str(AI_ENGINE_ROOT))
-
-from models.v20_ensemble import FullMatchPrediction
-from models.basketball_v25 import BasketballMatchPrediction
-from services.single_match_orchestrator import MatchData, SingleMatchOrchestrator
-
-
-class _CursorContext:
-    def __init__(self, cursor):
-        self._cursor = cursor
-
-    def __enter__(self):
-        return self._cursor
-
-    def __exit__(self, exc_type, exc, tb):
-        return False
-
-
-class _ConnContext:
-    def __init__(self, cursor):
-        self._cursor = cursor
-
-    def __enter__(self):
-        return self
-
-    def __exit__(self, exc_type, exc, tb):
-        return False
-
-    def cursor(self, cursor_factory=None):
-        return _CursorContext(self._cursor)
-
-
-class _StaticFetchAllCursor:
-    def __init__(self, rows):
-        self.rows = rows
-        self.executed = []
-
-    def execute(self, query, params=None):
-        self.executed.append((query, params))
-
-    def fetchall(self):
-        return list(self.rows)
-
-
-class _RouterCursor:
-    def __init__(
-        self,
-        *,
-        live_row=None,
-        hist_row=None,
-        relational_rows=None,
-        participation_rows=None,
-        probable_rows=None,
-    ):
-        self.live_row = live_row
-        self.hist_row = hist_row
-        self.relational_rows = relational_rows or []
-        self.participation_rows = participation_rows or []
-        self.probable_rows = probable_rows or []
-        self.last_query = ""
-
-    def execute(self, query, params=None):
-        self.last_query = query
-
-    def fetchone(self):
-        if "FROM live_matches" in self.last_query:
-            return self.live_row
-        if "FROM matches m" in self.last_query:
-            return self.hist_row
-        return None
-
-    def fetchall(self):
-        if "FROM odd_categories" in self.last_query:
-            return list(self.relational_rows)
-        if "FROM match_player_participation" in self.last_query and "GROUP BY" not in self.last_query:
-            return list(self.participation_rows)
-        if "GROUP BY mpp.player_id" in self.last_query:
-            return list(self.probable_rows)
-        return []
-
-
-def _build_orchestrator() -> SingleMatchOrchestrator:
-    orchestrator = SingleMatchOrchestrator.__new__(SingleMatchOrchestrator)
-    orchestrator.v25_predictor = MagicMock()
-    orchestrator.v26_shadow_engine = None
-    orchestrator.basketball_predictor = MagicMock()
-    orchestrator.dsn = "postgresql://unit-test"
-    orchestrator.engine_mode = "v25"
-    orchestrator.league_reliability = {}
-    orchestrator.market_calibration = {
-        "MS": 0.82,
-        "DC": 0.93,
-        "OU15": 0.90,
-        "OU25": 0.85,
-        "OU35": 0.88,
-        "BTTS": 0.83,
-        "HT": 0.80,
-        "HT_OU05": 0.88,
-    }
-    orchestrator.market_min_conf = {
-        "MS": 52.0,
-        "DC": 56.0,
-        "OU15": 60.0,
-        "OU25": 58.0,
-        "OU35": 54.0,
-        "BTTS": 57.0,
-        "HT": 53.0,
-        "HT_OU05": 55.0,
-    }
-    orchestrator.market_min_play_score = {
-        "MS": 72.0,
-        "DC": 62.0,
-        "OU15": 64.0,
-        "OU25": 70.0,
-        "OU35": 76.0,
-        "BTTS": 70.0,
-        "HT": 74.0,
-        "HT_OU05": 64.0,
-    }
-    orchestrator.market_min_edge = {
-        "MS": 0.03,
-        "DC": 0.01,
-        "OU15": 0.01,
-        "OU25": 0.02,
-        "OU35": 0.04,
-        "BTTS": 0.03,
-        "HT": 0.04,
-        "HT_OU05": 0.01,
-    }
-    return orchestrator
-
-
-class SingleMatchOrchestratorTests(unittest.TestCase):
-    def setUp(self):
-        self.orchestrator = _build_orchestrator()
-
-    def test_parse_odds_json_uses_exact_market_match_and_ignores_collisions(self):
-        odds_json = {
-            "Maç Sonucu": {"1": "2.15", "X": "3.20", "2": "3.30"},
-            "İlk Yarı/Maç Sonucu": {"1/1": "4.30"},
-            "2,5 Alt/Üst": {"Üst": "1.85", "Alt": "1.95"},
-            "İY 0,5 Alt/Üst": {"Üst": "1.49", "Alt": "2.20"},
-            "1. Yarı Ev Sahibi 0,5 Alt/Üst": {"Üst": "1.99", "Alt": "1.45"},
-            "2,5 Kart Puanı Alt/Üst": {"Üst": "1.33", "Alt": "2.95"},
-            "Karşılıklı Gol": {"Var": "1.75", "Yok": "2.05"},
-            "1. Yarı Karşılıklı Gol": {"Var": "2.10", "Yok": "1.60"},
-            "Çifte Şans": {"1-X": "1.33", "X-2": "1.62", "1-2": "1.30"},
-            "1. Yarı Sonucu": {"1": "2.45", "X": "2.00", "2": "3.80"},
-        }
-
-        parsed = self.orchestrator._parse_odds_json(odds_json)
-
-        self.assertEqual(parsed["ms_h"], 2.15)
-        self.assertEqual(parsed["ms_d"], 3.20)
-        self.assertEqual(parsed["ms_a"], 3.30)
-        self.assertEqual(parsed["ou25_o"], 1.85)
-        self.assertEqual(parsed["ou25_u"], 1.95)
-        self.assertEqual(parsed["btts_y"], 1.75)
-        self.assertEqual(parsed["btts_n"], 2.05)
-        self.assertEqual(parsed["dc_1x"], 1.33)
-        self.assertEqual(parsed["dc_x2"], 1.62)
-        self.assertEqual(parsed["dc_12"], 1.30)
-        self.assertEqual(parsed["ht_h"], 2.45)
-        self.assertEqual(parsed["ht_d"], 2.00)
-        self.assertEqual(parsed["ht_a"], 3.80)
-        self.assertEqual(parsed["ht_ou05_o"], 1.49)
-        self.assertEqual(parsed["ht_ou05_u"], 2.20)
-        self.assertEqual(parsed["htft_11"], 4.30)
-
-    def test_parse_odds_json_accepts_selection_variants(self):
-        odds_json = {
-            "2,5 Alt/Üst": {"2,5 Üst": "1.91", "2,5 Alt": "1.86"},
-            "Karşılıklı Gol": {"YES": "1.82", "NO": "1.96"},
-            "Çifte Şans": {"1X": "1.28", "X2": "1.44", "12": "1.32"},
-        }
-
-        parsed = self.orchestrator._parse_odds_json(odds_json)
-
-        self.assertEqual(parsed["ou25_o"], 1.91)
-        self.assertEqual(parsed["ou25_u"], 1.86)
-        self.assertEqual(parsed["btts_y"], 1.82)
-        self.assertEqual(parsed["btts_n"], 1.96)
-        self.assertEqual(parsed["dc_1x"], 1.28)
-        self.assertEqual(parsed["dc_x2"], 1.44)
-        self.assertEqual(parsed["dc_12"], 1.32)
-
-    def test_parse_odds_json_maps_all_football_markets_with_noise(self):
-        odds_json = {
-            "Maç Sonucu": {"1": "2.31", "X": "3.22", "2": "3.05"},
-            "Çifte Şans": {"1-X": "1.34", "X-2": "1.52", "1-2": "1.28"},
-            "1,5 Alt/Üst": {"Üst": "1.29", "Alt": "3.45"},
-            "2,5 Alt/Üst": {"Üst": "1.71", "Alt": "2.05"},
-            "3,5 Alt/Üst": {"Üst": "2.62", "Alt": "1.41"},
-            "Karşılıklı Gol": {"Var": "1.66", "Yok": "2.11"},
-            "1. Yarı Sonucu": {"1": "3.10", "X": "1.95", "2": "4.60"},
-            "1. Yarı 0,5 Alt/Üst": {"Üst": "1.21", "Alt": "2.72"},
-            # noise categories that must not overwrite football main markets
-            "1. Yarı Ev Sahibi 0,5 Alt/Üst": {"Üst": "1.99", "Alt": "1.45"},
-            "1. Yarı Deplasman 0,5 Alt/Üst": {"Üst": "1.73", "Alt": "1.63"},
-            "1.Yarı 3,5 Korner Alt/Üst": {"Üst": "1.26", "Alt": "2.30"},
-            "2,5 Kart Puanı Alt/Üst": {"Üst": "1.40", "Alt": "2.60"},
-        }
-
-        parsed = self.orchestrator._parse_odds_json(odds_json)
-
-        self.assertEqual(parsed["ms_h"], 2.31)
-        self.assertEqual(parsed["ms_d"], 3.22)
-        self.assertEqual(parsed["ms_a"], 3.05)
-        self.assertEqual(parsed["dc_1x"], 1.34)
-        self.assertEqual(parsed["dc_x2"], 1.52)
-        self.assertEqual(parsed["dc_12"], 1.28)
-        self.assertEqual(parsed["ou15_o"], 1.29)
-        self.assertEqual(parsed["ou15_u"], 3.45)
-        self.assertEqual(parsed["ou25_o"], 1.71)
-        self.assertEqual(parsed["ou25_u"], 2.05)
-        self.assertEqual(parsed["ou35_o"], 2.62)
-        self.assertEqual(parsed["ou35_u"], 1.41)
-        self.assertEqual(parsed["btts_y"], 1.66)
-        self.assertEqual(parsed["btts_n"], 2.11)
-        self.assertEqual(parsed["ht_h"], 3.10)
-        self.assertEqual(parsed["ht_d"], 1.95)
-        self.assertEqual(parsed["ht_a"], 4.60)
-        self.assertEqual(parsed["ht_ou05_o"], 1.21)
-        self.assertEqual(parsed["ht_ou05_u"], 2.72)
-
-    def test_v25_market_odds_ignores_synthetic_default_when_selection_missing(self):
-        odds_json = {
-            "1,5 Alt/Üst": {"Alt": 5.70},
-            "Çifte Şans": {"1-X": 1.30, "X-2": 1.38, "1-2": 1.09},
-        }
-
-        parsed = self.orchestrator._parse_odds_json(odds_json)
-
-        self.assertEqual(parsed["ou15_o"], 0.0)
-        self.assertEqual(
-            self.orchestrator._v25_market_odds(parsed, "OU15", "Over"),
-            1.0,
-        )
-        self.assertEqual(
-            self.orchestrator._v25_market_odds(parsed, "OU15", "Under"),
-            5.7,
-        )
-        self.assertEqual(
-            self.orchestrator._v25_market_odds(parsed, "DC", "X2"),
-            1.38,
-        )
-
-    def test_parse_odds_json_extracts_basketball_ml_total_spread(self):
-        odds_json = {
-            "Maç Sonucu (Uzt. Dahil)": {"1": "1.74", "2": "2.08"},
-            "Alt/Üst (163,5)": {"Üst": "1.86", "Alt": "1.94"},
-            "1. Yarı Alt/Üst (81,5)": {"Üst": "1.89", "Alt": "1.91"},
-            "1. Yarı Alt/Üst (100,5)": {"Üst": "1.83", "Alt": "1.97"},
-            "Hnd. MS (0:5,5)": {"1": "1.91", "+5.5h": "1.87"},
-        }
-
-        parsed = self.orchestrator._parse_odds_json(odds_json)
-
-        self.assertEqual(parsed["ml_h"], 1.74)
-        self.assertEqual(parsed["ml_a"], 2.08)
-        self.assertEqual(parsed["tot_line"], 163.5)
-        self.assertEqual(parsed["tot_o"], 1.86)
-        self.assertEqual(parsed["tot_u"], 1.94)
-        self.assertEqual(parsed["spread_home_line"], -5.5)
-        self.assertEqual(parsed["spread_h"], 1.91)
-        self.assertEqual(parsed["spread_a"], 1.87)
-        self.assertNotIn("ht_ou05_o", parsed)
-        self.assertNotIn("ht_ou05_u", parsed)
-
-    def test_extract_odds_merges_relational_when_live_json_is_incomplete(self):
-        row = {
-            "match_id": "m-1",
-            "odds": {"Maç Sonucu": {"1": 2.10, "X": 3.20, "2": 3.35}},
-        }
-        relational_rows = [
-            {"category_name": "Çifte Şans", "selection_name": "1-X", "odd_value": 1.28},
-            {"category_name": "Çifte Şans", "selection_name": "X-2", "odd_value": 1.44},
-            {"category_name": "Çifte Şans", "selection_name": "1-2", "odd_value": 1.31},
-            {"category_name": "2,5 Alt/Üst", "selection_name": "Üst", "odd_value": 1.89},
-            {"category_name": "2,5 Alt/Üst", "selection_name": "Alt", "odd_value": 1.94},
-            {"category_name": "Karşılıklı Gol", "selection_name": "Var", "odd_value": 1.77},
-            {"category_name": "Karşılıklı Gol", "selection_name": "Yok", "odd_value": 2.02},
-            {"category_name": "1. Yarı Sonucu", "selection_name": "1", "odd_value": 2.55},
-            {"category_name": "1. Yarı Sonucu", "selection_name": "X", "odd_value": 1.98},
-            {"category_name": "1. Yarı Sonucu", "selection_name": "2", "odd_value": 3.40},
-        ]
-        cur = _StaticFetchAllCursor(relational_rows)
-
-        odds = self.orchestrator._extract_odds(cur, row)
-
-        self.assertEqual(odds["ms_h"], 2.10)
-        self.assertEqual(odds["ms_d"], 3.20)
-        self.assertEqual(odds["ms_a"], 3.35)
-        self.assertEqual(odds["dc_x2"], 1.44)
-        self.assertEqual(odds["ou25_o"], 1.89)
-        self.assertEqual(odds["btts_y"], 1.77)
-        self.assertEqual(odds["ht_d"], 1.98)
-        self.assertEqual(len(cur.executed), 1)
-
-    def test_extract_odds_fills_default_ms_when_no_source_available(self):
-        row = {"match_id": "m-2", "odds": None}
-        cur = _StaticFetchAllCursor([])
-
-        odds = self.orchestrator._extract_odds(cur, row)
-
-        self.assertEqual(odds["ms_h"], SingleMatchOrchestrator.DEFAULT_MS_H)
-        self.assertEqual(odds["ms_d"], SingleMatchOrchestrator.DEFAULT_MS_D)
-        self.assertEqual(odds["ms_a"], SingleMatchOrchestrator.DEFAULT_MS_A)
-
-    def test_parse_lineups_json_supports_id_playerid_personid(self):
-        lineups = {
-            "home": {
-                "xi": [
-                    {"id": "11"},
-                    {"playerId": "12"},
-                ],
-            },
-            "away": {
-                "starting": [
-                    {"personId": "21"},
-                    "22",
-                ],
-            },
-        }
-
-        home, away = self.orchestrator._parse_lineups_json(lineups)
-
-        self.assertEqual(home, ["11", "12"])
-        self.assertEqual(away, ["21", "22"])
-
-    def test_extract_lineups_uses_participation_and_probable_xi_fallbacks(self):
-        row = {
-            "match_id": "m-3",
-            "home_team_id": "h1",
-            "away_team_id": "a1",
-            "match_date_ms": 1700000000000,
-            "lineups": {
-                "home": {"xi": [{"personId": "h-live-1"}]},
-                "away": {},
-            },
-        }
-        participation = [
-            {"team_id": "a1", "player_id": "a-db-1"},
-            {"team_id": "a1", "player_id": "a-db-2"},
-        ]
-        cur = _StaticFetchAllCursor(participation)
-
-        with patch.object(
-            self.orchestrator,
-            "_build_probable_xi",
-            side_effect=[["h-prob-1"], ["a-prob-1"]],
-        ) as probable_xi:
-            home, away, source = self.orchestrator._extract_lineups(cur, row)
-
-        self.assertEqual(home, ["h-live-1"])
-        self.assertEqual(away, ["a-db-1", "a-db-2"])
-        self.assertEqual(source, "none")
-        probable_xi.assert_not_called()
-
-    def test_extract_lineups_falls_back_to_probable_xi_when_live_and_participation_missing(self):
-        row = {
-            "match_id": "m-4",
-            "home_team_id": "h2",
-            "away_team_id": "a2",
-            "match_date_ms": 1700000000000,
-            "lineups": None,
-        }
-        cur = _StaticFetchAllCursor([])
-
-        with patch.object(
-            self.orchestrator,
-            "_build_probable_xi",
-            side_effect=[["h-prob-1", "h-prob-2"], ["a-prob-1"]],
-        ) as probable_xi:
-            home, away, source = self.orchestrator._extract_lineups(cur, row)
-
-        self.assertEqual(home, ["h-prob-1", "h-prob-2"])
-        self.assertEqual(away, ["a-prob-1"])
-        self.assertEqual(source, "probable_xi")
-        self.assertEqual(probable_xi.call_count, 2)
-
-    def test_load_match_data_parses_live_row_json_and_sidelined(self):
-        odds_payload = {
-            "Maç Sonucu": {"1": 2.10, "X": 3.30, "2": 3.50},
-            "Çifte Şans": {"1-X": 1.30, "X-2": 1.52, "1-2": 1.34},
-            "1,5 Alt/Üst": {"Üst": 1.33, "Alt": 2.90},
-            "2,5 Alt/Üst": {"Üst": 1.91, "Alt": 1.85},
-            "3,5 Alt/Üst": {"Üst": 2.95, "Alt": 1.38},
-            "Karşılıklı Gol": {"Var": 1.84, "Yok": 1.92},
-            "1. Yarı Sonucu": {"1": 2.55, "X": 1.97, "2": 3.45},
-        }
-        lineups_payload = {
-            "home": {"xi": [{"personId": "101"}, {"personId": "102"}]},
-            "away": {"xi": [{"personId": "201"}, {"personId": "202"}]},
-        }
-        live_row = {
-            "match_id": "live-101",
-            "home_team_id": "h-101",
-            "away_team_id": "a-101",
-            "league_id": "l-101",
-            "sport": "FOOTBALL",
-            "match_date_ms": 1760000000000,
-            "odds": json.dumps(odds_payload),
-            "lineups": json.dumps(lineups_payload),
-            "sidelined": json.dumps(
-                {
-                    "homeTeam": {"totalSidelined": 1, "players": []},
-                    "awayTeam": {"totalSidelined": 0, "players": []},
-                }
-            ),
-            "referee_name": "John Ref",
-            "home_team_name": "Home FC",
-            "away_team_name": "Away FC",
-            "league_name": "League Name",
-        }
-        cursor = _RouterCursor(live_row=live_row)
-
-        with patch("services.single_match_orchestrator.psycopg2.connect", return_value=_ConnContext(cursor)):
-            data = self.orchestrator._load_match_data("live-101")
-
-        self.assertIsNotNone(data)
-        self.assertEqual(data.match_id, "live-101")
-        self.assertEqual(data.home_team_id, "h-101")
-        self.assertEqual(data.away_team_id, "a-101")
-        self.assertEqual(data.sport, "football")
-        self.assertEqual(data.referee_name, "John Ref")
-        self.assertEqual(data.home_lineup, ["101", "102"])
-        self.assertEqual(data.away_lineup, ["201", "202"])
-        self.assertEqual(data.lineup_source, "none")
-        self.assertEqual(data.sidelined_data["homeTeam"]["totalSidelined"], 1)
-        self.assertEqual(data.odds_data["dc_x2"], 1.52)
-        self.assertEqual(data.odds_data["ht_h"], 2.55)
-
-    def test_analyze_match_forwards_all_core_fields_to_predictor(self):
-        match_data = MatchData(
-            match_id="live-55",
-            home_team_id="home-55",
-            away_team_id="away-55",
-            home_team_name="Home 55",
-            away_team_name="Away 55",
-            match_date_ms=1760000000000,
-            sport="football",
-            league_id="league-55",
-            league_name="League 55",
-            referee_name="Ref 55",
-            odds_data={"ms_h": 2.4, "ms_d": 3.1, "ms_a": 2.9},
-            home_lineup=["h1", "h2"],
-            away_lineup=["a1", "a2"],
-            sidelined_data={
-                "homeTeam": {"totalSidelined": 2, "players": []},
-                "awayTeam": {"totalSidelined": 1, "players": []},
-            },
-            home_goals_avg=1.6,
-            home_conceded_avg=1.1,
-            away_goals_avg=1.2,
-            away_conceded_avg=1.4,
-            home_position=5,
-            away_position=8,
-            lineup_source="confirmed_live",
-        )
-        prediction = FullMatchPrediction(match_id="live-55", home_team="Home 55", away_team="Away 55")
-
-        self.orchestrator._load_match_data = MagicMock(return_value=match_data)
-        self.orchestrator.v25_predictor.predict_market_bundle = MagicMock(return_value={"MS": {"pick": "1"}})
-        self.orchestrator._build_v25_features = MagicMock(return_value={})
-        self.orchestrator._get_v25_signal = MagicMock(return_value={"MS": {"pick": "1"}})
-        self.orchestrator._build_v25_prediction = MagicMock(return_value=prediction)
-        self.orchestrator._build_prediction_package = MagicMock(return_value={"ok": True})
-
-        result = self.orchestrator.analyze_match("live-55")
-
-        self.assertEqual(result, {"ok": True})
-        self.orchestrator._build_v25_features.assert_called_once_with(match_data)
-        self.orchestrator._get_v25_signal.assert_called_once_with(match_data, {})
-        self.orchestrator._build_v25_prediction.assert_called_once_with(
-            match_data,
-            {},
-            {"MS": {"pick": "1"}},
-        )
-
-    def test_analyze_match_routes_basketball_to_basketball_predictor(self):
-        match_data = MatchData(
-            match_id="b-live-1",
-            home_team_id="bh",
-            away_team_id="ba",
-            home_team_name="Home B",
-            away_team_name="Away B",
-            match_date_ms=1760000000000,
-            sport="basketball",
-            league_id="bleague",
-            league_name="B League",
-            referee_name=None,
-            odds_data={"ml_h": 1.75, "ml_a": 2.05, "tot_line": 161.5, "tot_o": 1.88, "tot_u": 1.92},
-            home_lineup=None,
-            away_lineup=None,
-            sidelined_data={"homeTeam": {"totalSidelined": 1}, "awayTeam": {"totalSidelined": 0}},
-            home_goals_avg=85.0,
-            home_conceded_avg=79.0,
-            away_goals_avg=82.0,
-            away_conceded_avg=81.0,
-            home_position=4,
-            away_position=7,
-            lineup_source="none",
-        )
-        prediction = BasketballMatchPrediction(
-            match_id="b-live-1",
-            home_team_name="Home B",
-            away_team_name="Away B",
-            league_name="B League",
-        )
-
-        self.orchestrator._load_match_data = MagicMock(return_value=match_data)
-        self.orchestrator.basketball_predictor.predict = MagicMock(return_value=prediction)
-        self.orchestrator._build_basketball_prediction_package = MagicMock(
-            return_value={"sport": "basketball", "ok": True}
-        )
-
-        result = self.orchestrator.analyze_match("b-live-1")
-
-        self.assertEqual(result, {"sport": "basketball", "ok": True})
-        self.orchestrator.basketball_predictor.predict.assert_called_once()
-        kwargs = self.orchestrator.basketball_predictor.predict.call_args.kwargs
-        self.assertEqual(kwargs["match_id"], "b-live-1")
-        self.assertEqual(kwargs["home_team_id"], "bh")
-        self.assertEqual(kwargs["away_team_id"], "ba")
-        self.assertEqual(kwargs["league_id"], "bleague")
-        self.assertEqual(kwargs["odds_data"]["ml_h"], 1.75)
-        self.orchestrator.v25_predictor.predict_market_bundle.assert_not_called()
-
-    def test_build_market_rows_maps_odds_keys_correctly(self):
-        data = MatchData(
-            match_id="m-rows",
-            home_team_id="h",
-            away_team_id="a",
-            home_team_name="Home",
-            away_team_name="Away",
-            match_date_ms=1760000000000,
-            sport="football",
-            league_id=None,
-            league_name="",
-            referee_name=None,
-            odds_data={
-                "ms_h": 2.3,
-                "ms_d": 3.2,
-                "ms_a": 3.1,
-                "dc_x2": 1.45,
-                "ou15_o": 1.36,
-                "ou25_u": 1.92,
-                "ou35_o": 2.85,
-                "btts_y": 1.88,
-                "ht_h": 2.55,
-                "ht_ou05_o": 1.47,
-            },
-            home_lineup=None,
-            away_lineup=None,
-            sidelined_data=None,
-            home_goals_avg=1.5,
-            home_conceded_avg=1.2,
-            away_goals_avg=1.2,
-            away_conceded_avg=1.4,
-            home_position=10,
-            away_position=10,
-            lineup_source="none",
-        )
-        pred = FullMatchPrediction(
-            match_id="m-rows",
-            home_team="Home",
-            away_team="Away",
-            ms_home_prob=0.25,
-            ms_draw_prob=0.30,
-            ms_away_prob=0.45,
-            ms_pick="2",
-            ms_confidence=69.0,
-            dc_1x_prob=0.60,
-            dc_x2_prob=0.72,
-            dc_12_prob=0.68,
-            dc_pick="X2",
-            dc_confidence=67.0,
-            over_15_prob=0.74,
-            under_15_prob=0.26,
-            ou15_pick="1.5 Üst",
-            ou15_confidence=72.0,
-            over_25_prob=0.44,
-            under_25_prob=0.56,
-            ou25_pick="2.5 Alt",
-            ou25_confidence=61.0,
-            over_35_prob=0.39,
-            under_35_prob=0.61,
-            ou35_pick="3.5 Over",
-            ou35_confidence=58.0,
-            btts_yes_prob=0.57,
-            btts_no_prob=0.43,
-            btts_pick="Yes",
-            btts_confidence=63.0,
-            ht_home_prob=0.41,
-            ht_draw_prob=0.39,
-            ht_away_prob=0.20,
-            ht_pick="1",
-            ht_confidence=60.0,
-            ht_over_05_prob=0.64,
-            ht_under_05_prob=0.36,
-            ht_ou_pick="Over 0.5",
-        )
-
-        rows = self.orchestrator._build_market_rows(data, pred)
-        by_market = {row["market"]: row for row in rows}
-
-        self.assertEqual(by_market["MS"]["odds"], 3.1)
-        self.assertEqual(by_market["DC"]["odds"], 1.45)
-        self.assertEqual(by_market["OU15"]["odds"], 1.36)
-        self.assertEqual(by_market["OU25"]["odds"], 1.92)
-        self.assertEqual(by_market["OU35"]["odds"], 2.85)
-        self.assertEqual(by_market["BTTS"]["odds"], 1.88)
-        self.assertEqual(by_market["HT"]["odds"], 2.55)
-        self.assertEqual(by_market["HT_OU05"]["odds"], 1.47)
-
-    def test_build_basketball_market_rows_maps_odds_keys_correctly(self):
-        data = MatchData(
-            match_id="b-rows",
-            home_team_id="bh",
-            away_team_id="ba",
-            home_team_name="Home B",
-            away_team_name="Away B",
-            match_date_ms=1760000000000,
-            sport="basketball",
-            league_id="bl",
-            league_name="Basketball League",
-            referee_name=None,
-            odds_data={
-                "ml_h": 1.73,
-                "ml_a": 2.10,
-                "tot_line": 162.5,
-                "tot_o": 1.89,
-                "tot_u": 1.93,
-                "spread_home_line": -4.5,
-                "spread_h": 1.91,
-                "spread_a": 1.88,
-            },
-            home_lineup=None,
-            away_lineup=None,
-            sidelined_data=None,
-            home_goals_avg=84.0,
-            home_conceded_avg=80.0,
-            away_goals_avg=82.0,
-            away_conceded_avg=81.0,
-            home_position=5,
-            away_position=8,
-            lineup_source="none",
-        )
-        pred = {
-            "match_id": "b-rows",
-            "market_board": {
-                "ML": {"1": "62%", "2": "38%"},
-                "Totals": {"Under 162.5": "43%", "Over 162.5": "57%"},
-                "Spread": {"Away +4.5": "46%", "Home -4.5": "54%"}
-            }
-        }
-
-        rows = self.orchestrator._build_basketball_market_rows(data, pred)
-        by_market = {row["market"]: row for row in rows}
-
-        self.assertEqual(by_market["ML"]["odds"], 1.73)
-        self.assertEqual(by_market["TOTAL"]["odds"], 1.89)
-        self.assertEqual(by_market["SPREAD"]["odds"], 1.91)
-
-    def test_compute_data_quality_flags_missing_referee_and_lineup(self):
-        data = MatchData(
-            match_id="dq-1",
-            home_team_id="h",
-            away_team_id="a",
-            home_team_name="Home",
-            away_team_name="Away",
-            match_date_ms=1760000000000,
-            sport="football",
-            league_id=None,
-            league_name="",
-            referee_name=None,
-            odds_data={"ms_h": 2.5, "ms_d": 3.2, "ms_a": 2.9},
-            home_lineup=["h1", "h2"],
-            away_lineup=["a1"],
-            sidelined_data=None,
-            home_goals_avg=1.5,
-            home_conceded_avg=1.2,
-            away_goals_avg=1.2,
-            away_conceded_avg=1.4,
-            home_position=10,
-            away_position=10,
-            lineup_source="none",
-        )
-
-        quality = self.orchestrator._compute_data_quality(data)
-
-        self.assertIn("lineup_incomplete", quality["flags"])
-        self.assertIn("missing_referee", quality["flags"])
-        self.assertEqual(quality["label"], "MEDIUM")
-
-    def test_load_match_data_returns_none_when_team_ids_missing(self):
-        live_row = {
-            "match_id": "live-missing-ids",
-            "home_team_id": None,
-            "away_team_id": None,
-            "league_id": "l-1",
-            "sport": "football",
-            "match_date_ms": 1760000000000,
-            "odds": None,
-            "lineups": None,
-            "sidelined": None,
-            "referee_name": None,
-            "home_team_name": "Home",
-            "away_team_name": "Away",
-            "league_name": "League",
-        }
-        cursor = _RouterCursor(live_row=live_row)
-
-        with patch("services.single_match_orchestrator.psycopg2.connect", return_value=_ConnContext(cursor)):
-            data = self.orchestrator._load_match_data("live-missing-ids")
-
-        self.assertIsNone(data)
-
-    def test_decorate_market_row_blocks_required_market_when_odds_missing(self):
-        data = MatchData(
-            match_id="dq-odds",
-            home_team_id="h",
-            away_team_id="a",
-            home_team_name="Home",
-            away_team_name="Away",
-            match_date_ms=1760000000000,
-            sport="football",
-            league_id="l1",
-            league_name="League",
-            referee_name="Ref",
-            odds_data={"ms_h": 2.2, "ms_d": 3.2, "ms_a": 3.0},
-            home_lineup=["h"] * 11,
-            away_lineup=["a"] * 11,
-            sidelined_data=None,
-            home_goals_avg=1.5,
-            home_conceded_avg=1.2,
-            away_goals_avg=1.2,
-            away_conceded_avg=1.4,
-            home_position=7,
-            away_position=9,
-            lineup_source="confirmed_live",
-        )
-        prediction = FullMatchPrediction(match_id="dq-odds", home_team="Home", away_team="Away")
-        quality = self.orchestrator._compute_data_quality(data)
-        row = {
-            "market": "HT_OU05",
-            "pick": "İY 0.5 Üst",
-            "probability": 0.65,
-            "confidence": 66.0,
-            "odds": 0.0,
-        }
-
-        out = self.orchestrator._decorate_market_row(data, prediction, quality, row)
-        self.assertFalse(out["playable"])
-        self.assertIn("market_odds_missing", out["decision_reasons"])
-
-
-if __name__ == "__main__":
-    unittest.main()
@@ -1,142 +0,0 @@
-"""
-Unit Test for NEW Skip Logic in BetRecommender
-==============================================
-Run with: python ai-engine/tests/test_skip_logic.py
-"""
-
-import os
-import sys
-import unittest
-from dataclasses import dataclass
-from typing import Optional
-
-# Add paths
-sys.path.insert(0, os.path.join(os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__)), '..'))
-
-from core.calculators.bet_recommender import BetRecommender, RecommendationResult, MarketPredictionDTO
-from core.calculators.risk_assessor import RiskAnalysis
-from core.calculators.match_result_calculator import MatchResultPrediction
-from core.calculators.over_under_calculator import OverUnderPrediction
-from config.config_loader import get_config
-
-@dataclass
-class DummyContext:
-    """Minimal mock for CalculationContext"""
-    odds_data: dict
-
-class TestSkipLogic(unittest.TestCase):
-
-    def setUp(self):
-        # Mock config to pass into BetRecommender
-        self.mock_config = {
-            "recommendations.market_weights": {"MS": 1.0, "ÇŞ": 0.9, "BTTS": 0.9, "2.5 Üst/Alt": 0.9},
-            "recommendations.safe_markets": ["ÇŞ", "1.5 Üst/Alt"],
-            "recommendations.market_accuracy": {"MS": 65, "ÇŞ": 75, "BTTS": 60, "2.5 Üst/Alt": 65},
-            "recommendations.baseline_accuracy": 65.0,
-            "recommendations.confidence_threshold": 60,
-            "recommendations.value_confidence_min": 45,
-            "recommendations.value_confidence_max": 60,
-            "recommendations.value_edge_margin": 0.03,
-            "recommendations.value_upgrade_edge": 5.0,
-            "recommendations.risk_safe_boost": 1.2,
-            "recommendations.risk_ms_penalty_high": 0.5,
-            "recommendations.risk_other_penalty": 0.7,
-            "recommendations.risk_ms_penalty_medium": 0.8,
-        }
-        self.recommender = BetRecommender(self.mock_config)
-
-    def _make_risk(self, level="MEDIUM", is_surprise=False):
-        return RiskAnalysis(risk_level=level, is_surprise_risk=is_surprise, risk_score=0.5)
-
-    def _make_ms_pred(self, pick, conf):
-        # pick: "1", "X", "2"
-        probs = {"1": {"ms_home_prob": 0.5, "ms_draw_prob": 0.3, "ms_away_prob": 0.2},
-                 "X": {"ms_home_prob": 0.2, "ms_draw_prob": 0.5, "ms_away_prob": 0.3},
-                 "2": {"ms_home_prob": 0.2, "ms_draw_prob": 0.3, "ms_away_prob": 0.5}}
-        p = probs.get(pick, probs["1"])
-        return MatchResultPrediction(
-            ms_pick=pick, ms_confidence=conf,
-            dc_pick="1X", dc_confidence=0,
-            dc_1x_prob=0.7, dc_x2_prob=0.7, dc_12_prob=0.7,
-            **p
-        )
-
-    def _make_ou_pred(self):
-        return OverUnderPrediction(
-            ou25_pick="2.5 Üst", ou25_confidence=50.0,
-            over_25_prob=0.55, under_25_prob=0.45,
-            
-            btts_pick="Var", btts_confidence=50.0,
-            btts_yes_prob=0.55, btts_no_prob=0.45,
-            
-            ou15_pick="1.5 Üst", ou15_confidence=60.0, over_15_prob=0.7, under_15_prob=0.3,
-            ou35_pick="3.5 Alt", ou35_confidence=50.0, over_35_prob=0.3, under_35_prob=0.7
-        )
-
-    def test_low_confidence_should_skip(self):
-        """Confidence < 45% should be SKIPPED"""
-        ms_pred = self._make_ms_pred(pick="2", conf=40.0)
-        ou_pred = self._make_ou_pred()
-        risk = self._make_risk("MEDIUM")
-        ctx = DummyContext(odds_data={"ms_2": 2.5})
-
-        res = self.recommender.calculate(ctx, ms_pred, ou_pred, risk)
-        
-        # Check if MS bet is skipped
-        ms_bet = next((b for b in res.skipped_bets if b.market_type == "MS"), None)
-        self.assertIsNotNone(ms_bet, "MS bet with 40% conf should be skipped!")
-        self.assertTrue(ms_bet.is_skip)
-
-    def test_good_confidence_should_recommend(self):
-        """Confidence > 60% and Good Odds should be RECOMMENDED"""
-        ms_pred = self._make_ms_pred(pick="1", conf=70.0)
-        ou_pred = self._make_ou_pred()
-        risk = self._make_risk("MEDIUM")
-        # Odds 1.80 for 70% prob = Good Value (Need real odds for MS to pass)
-        ctx = DummyContext(odds_data={"ms_1": 1.80, "ou15_o": 1.50}) # Added ou15 odds
-
-        res = self.recommender.calculate(ctx, ms_pred, ou_pred, risk)
-
-        # Check if ANY bet is recommended (doesn't have to be MS, but usually is)
-        self.assertGreater(len(res.recommended_bets), 0, "At least one bet should be recommended!")
-        # Check that MS bet is NOT skipped
-        ms_bet = next((b for b in res.recommended_bets if b.market_type == "MS"), None)
-        if ms_bet:
-            self.assertFalse(ms_bet.is_skip)
-
-    def test_negative_edge_should_skip(self):
-        """Even with high confidence, if Odds are too low (Bad Value), SKIP"""
-        ms_pred = self._make_ms_pred(pick="1", conf=70.0) # 70% prob
-        ou_pred = self._make_ou_pred()
-        risk = self._make_risk("MEDIUM")
-        # Odds 1.10 -> Implied 90%. Our prob is 70%. Edge is -20% -> SKIP
-        ctx = DummyContext(odds_data={"ms_1": 1.10})
-
-        res = self.recommender.calculate(ctx, ms_pred, ou_pred, risk)
-
-        ms_bet = next((b for b in res.skipped_bets if b.market_type == "MS"), None)
-        self.assertIsNotNone(ms_bet, "MS bet with terrible odds (Negative Edge) should be skipped!")
-        self.assertTrue(ms_bet.is_skip)
-
-    def test_no_bets_recommendation(self):
-        """If all bets are low confidence, best_bet should be None"""
-        ms_pred = self._make_ms_pred(pick="1", conf=30.0) # Very low conf
-        ou_pred = self._make_ou_pred()
-        # Reset ALL OU confs to low
-        ou_pred.ou25_confidence = 30.0
-        ou_pred.btts_confidence = 30.0
-        ou_pred.ou15_confidence = 30.0 # This was 60 in setUp, causing the fail!
-        ou_pred.ou35_confidence = 30.0
-        
-        risk = self._make_risk("MEDIUM")
-        ctx = DummyContext(odds_data={"ms_1": 2.0})
-
-        res = self.recommender.calculate(ctx, ms_pred, ou_pred, risk)
-
-        self.assertIsNone(res.best_bet, "If everything is skipped, there should be no best_bet.")
-        self.assertEqual(len(res.recommended_bets), 0, "No bets should be recommended!")
-
-if __name__ == '__main__':
-    print("🧪 Running Skip Logic Unit Tests...")
-    print("="*50)
-    unittest.main(verbosity=2)
@@ -1,286 +0,0 @@
-import sys
-import unittest
-from pathlib import Path
-from types import SimpleNamespace
-
-AI_ENGINE_ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[1]
-if str(AI_ENGINE_ROOT) not in sys.path:
-    sys.path.insert(0, str(AI_ENGINE_ROOT))
-
-from services.v26_shadow_engine import V26ShadowEngine
-
-
-def _build_prediction():
-    return SimpleNamespace(
-        risk_level="MEDIUM",
-        risk_score=42.0,
-        is_surprise_risk=False,
-        surprise_type="",
-        surprise_score=0.0,
-        surprise_comment="",
-        surprise_reasons=[],
-        risk_warnings=[],
-        team_confidence=71.0,
-        player_confidence=64.0,
-        odds_confidence=75.0,
-        referee_confidence=58.0,
-        predicted_ft_score="2-1",
-        predicted_ht_score="1-0",
-        home_xg=1.72,
-        away_xg=1.08,
-        total_xg=2.8,
-        ft_scores_top5=[
-            {"score": "2-1", "prob": 0.093},
-            {"score": "1-1", "prob": 0.086},
-        ],
-        ms_home_prob=0.52,
-        ms_draw_prob=0.24,
-        ms_away_prob=0.24,
-    )
-
-
-def _build_data(referee_name="Ref A", lineup_source="confirmed_live", league_id="league1"):
-    return SimpleNamespace(
-        match_id="m1",
-        home_team_name="Home",
-        away_team_name="Away",
-        league_id=league_id,
-        league_name="League",
-        match_date_ms=1710000000000,
-        sport="football",
-        home_lineup=["h"] * 11,
-        away_lineup=["a"] * 11,
-        lineup_source=lineup_source,
-        referee_name=referee_name,
-        odds_data={
-            "ms_h": 2.1,
-            "ms_d": 3.4,
-            "ms_a": 3.7,
-            "dc_1x": 1.28,
-            "dc_x2": 1.68,
-            "dc_12": 1.34,
-            "ou15_o": 1.24,
-            "ou15_u": 4.1,
-            "ou25_o": 1.77,
-            "ou25_u": 2.05,
-            "ou35_o": 2.95,
-            "ou35_u": 1.4,
-            "btts_y": 1.74,
-            "btts_n": 2.04,
-            "ht_h": 2.72,
-            "ht_d": 2.05,
-            "ht_a": 4.8,
-            "ht_ou05_o": 1.38,
-            "ht_ou05_u": 2.85,
-            "ht_ou15_o": 2.48,
-            "ht_ou15_u": 1.48,
-            "oe_odd": 1.92,
-            "oe_even": 1.9,
-            "cards_o": 1.98,
-            "cards_u": 1.84,
-            "hcap_h": 3.3,
-            "hcap_d": 3.7,
-            "hcap_a": 1.93,
-            "htft_11": 3.8,
-            "htft_1x": 5.1,
-            "htft_12": 16.5,
-            "htft_x1": 5.6,
-            "htft_xx": 4.8,
-            "htft_x2": 7.4,
-            "htft_21": 22.0,
-            "htft_2x": 12.0,
-            "htft_22": 6.2,
-        },
-    )
-
-
-class V26ShadowEngineTests(unittest.TestCase):
-    def setUp(self):
-        self.engine = V26ShadowEngine()
-        self.engine.top_league_ids = {"top1"}
-        self.prediction = _build_prediction()
-        self.quality = {
-            "label": "HIGH",
-            "score": 0.88,
-            "home_lineup_count": 11,
-            "away_lineup_count": 11,
-            "lineup_source": "confirmed_live",
-            "flags": [],
-        }
-        self.v25_signal = {
-            "MS": {"probs": {"1": 0.46, "X": 0.27, "2": 0.27}},
-            "HT": {"probs": {"1": 0.39, "X": 0.41, "2": 0.20}},
-            "HTFT": {"probs": {"1/1": 0.22, "X/X": 0.18, "2/2": 0.14}},
-            "HCAP": {"probs": {"1": 0.21, "X": 0.19, "2": 0.60}},
-            "CARDS": {"probs": {"Under": 0.53, "Over": 0.47}},
-        }
-
-    def test_build_package_exposes_shadow_metadata(self):
-        package = self.engine.build_package(
-            data=_build_data(),
-            prediction=self.prediction,
-            v25_signal=self.v25_signal,
-            quality=self.quality,
-        )
-
-        self.assertEqual(package["model_version"], "v26.shadow.2")
-        self.assertIn("calibration_version", package)
-        self.assertIn("decision_trace_id", package)
-        self.assertIn("market_reliability", package)
-        self.assertTrue(package["bet_summary"])
-
-    def test_cards_defaults_to_pass_when_referee_missing(self):
-        package = self.engine.build_package(
-            data=_build_data(referee_name=None),
-            prediction=self.prediction,
-            v25_signal=self.v25_signal,
-            quality=self.quality,
-        )
-
-        cards = next(item for item in package["bet_summary"] if item["market"] == "CARDS")
-        self.assertFalse(cards["playable"])
-        self.assertEqual(cards["bet_grade"], "PASS")
-
-    def test_select_main_pick_prioritizes_ms_when_playable(self):
-        rows = [
-            {
-                "market": "OU25",
-                "pick": "2.5 Üst",
-                "playable": True,
-                "selection_score": 86.0,
-                "play_score": 83.0,
-                "edge": 0.15,
-                "calibrated_confidence": 72.0,
-            },
-            {
-                "market": "MS",
-                "pick": "1",
-                "playable": True,
-                "selection_score": 81.0,
-                "play_score": 82.0,
-                "edge": 0.08,
-                "calibrated_confidence": 64.0,
-            },
-        ]
-
-        main_pick = self.engine._select_main_pick(rows)
-
-        self.assertIsNotNone(main_pick)
-        self.assertEqual(main_pick["market"], "MS")
-        self.assertEqual(main_pick["pick_reason"], "ms_priority_market")
-
-    def test_build_package_exposes_surprise_pick_when_reversal_is_hot(self):
-        prediction = _build_prediction()
-        prediction.is_surprise_risk = True
-        prediction.surprise_score = 82.0
-        prediction.surprise_type = "favorite_reversal"
-        v25_signal = dict(self.v25_signal)
-        v25_signal["HTFT"] = {
-            "probs": {
-                "1/2": 0.24,
-                "X/2": 0.14,
-                "1/1": 0.12,
-                "X/X": 0.10,
-            }
-        }
-        package = self.engine.build_package(
-            data=_build_data(),
-            prediction=prediction,
-            v25_signal=v25_signal,
-            quality=self.quality,
-        )
-
-        self.assertIn("surprise_hunter", package)
-        self.assertIn("surprise_pick", package)
-        self.assertTrue(package["surprise_hunter"]["playable"])
-        self.assertEqual(package["surprise_pick"]["market"], "HTFT")
-        self.assertEqual(package["surprise_pick"]["strategy_channel"], "surprise_sidecar")
-        self.assertEqual(package["surprise_hunter"]["strategy_channel"], "surprise_sidecar")
-        self.assertGreaterEqual(package["surprise_pick"]["surprise_score"], 66.0)
-        self.assertEqual(package["main_pick"]["strategy_channel"], "standard")
-        self.assertNotEqual(package["main_pick"].get("strategy_channel"), package["surprise_pick"].get("strategy_channel"))
-        self.assertNotEqual(package["main_pick"].get("pick_reason"), "favorite_reversal_signal")
-
-    def test_top_league_policy_suppresses_early_and_extra_goal_markets(self):
-        package = self.engine.build_package(
-            data=_build_data(league_id="top1"),
-            prediction=self.prediction,
-            v25_signal=self.v25_signal,
-            quality=self.quality,
-        )
-
-        summary = {item["market"]: item for item in package["bet_summary"]}
-        self.assertFalse(summary["HT_OU05"]["playable"])
-        self.assertTrue(
-            "top_league_early_market_suppressed" in summary["HT_OU05"]["reasons"]
-            or "top_league_ht_ou05_over_disabled" in summary["HT_OU05"]["reasons"]
-        )
-
-        playable_goal_cluster = [
-            item for item in package["bet_summary"]
-            if item["market"] in {"OU15", "OU25", "OU35", "BTTS"} and item["playable"]
-        ]
-        self.assertLessEqual(len(playable_goal_cluster), 1)
-
-    def test_scoreline_consistency_blocks_conflicting_markets(self):
-        rows = [
-            {
-                "market": "MS",
-                "raw_pick": "1",
-                "pick": "1",
-                "playable": True,
-                "bet_grade": "A",
-                "stake_units": 1.0,
-                "decision_reasons": [],
-            },
-            {
-                "market": "BTTS",
-                "raw_pick": "Yes",
-                "pick": "KG Var",
-                "playable": True,
-                "bet_grade": "A",
-                "stake_units": 1.0,
-                "decision_reasons": [],
-            },
-            {
-                "market": "OU25",
-                "raw_pick": "Over",
-                "pick": "2.5 Üst",
-                "playable": True,
-                "bet_grade": "A",
-                "stake_units": 1.0,
-                "decision_reasons": [],
-            },
-            {
-                "market": "OU25",
-                "raw_pick": "Under",
-                "pick": "2.5 Alt",
-                "playable": True,
-                "bet_grade": "A",
-                "stake_units": 1.0,
-                "decision_reasons": [],
-            },
-        ]
-        prediction = _build_prediction()
-        prediction.predicted_ft_score = "1-0"
-        prediction.predicted_ht_score = "1-0"
-
-        controlled = self.engine._apply_scoreline_consistency_controls(rows, prediction)
-        by_market_pick = {(row["market"], row["raw_pick"]): row for row in controlled}
-
-        self.assertTrue(by_market_pick[("MS", "1")]["playable"])
-        self.assertIn(
-            "scoreline_scenario_aligned",
-            by_market_pick[("MS", "1")]["decision_reasons"],
-        )
-        self.assertFalse(by_market_pick[("BTTS", "Yes")]["playable"])
-        self.assertFalse(by_market_pick[("OU25", "Over")]["playable"])
-        self.assertTrue(by_market_pick[("OU25", "Under")]["playable"])
-        self.assertIn(
-            "scoreline_scenario_conflict",
-            by_market_pick[("BTTS", "Yes")]["decision_reasons"],
-        )
-
-
-if __name__ == "__main__":
-    unittest.main()
@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 # Social Poster Modülü — Otomatik Sosyal Medya Paylaşım Sistemi

-Son güncelleme: 1 Mart 2026
+Son güncelleme: 5 Mayıs 2026

 ---

@@ -13,11 +13,11 @@ Top liglerdeki maçların AI tahminlerini **otomatik olarak görselleştirip** I
 ## 2. Mimari Akış

 ```
-Cron (*/10 dk) → LiveMatch sorgusu (top_leagues.json filtresi)
+Cron (*/15 dk) → LiveMatch sorgusu (top_leagues.json filtresi)
  → AI Engine V20+ POST /v20plus/analyze/{match_id}
    → PredictionCardDto oluştur
-      → Node Canvas ile 1080x1920 PNG render
-        → Gemini ile Türkçe caption üret
+      → Node Canvas ile futbol/basketbol 1080x1080 JPEG render
+        → Ollama/Gemini ile Türkçe SEO uyumlu caption üret
          → Twitter / Facebook / Instagram API'ye paylaş
 ```

@@ -44,20 +44,25 @@ src/modules/social-poster/

 ### 4.1 SocialPosterService

-**Cron:** Her 10 dakikada bir çalışır. 25–40 dakika içinde başlayacak maçları `top_leagues.json` filtresiyle bulur.
+**Cron:** Her 15 dakikada bir çalışır. Varsayılan olarak 25–45 dakika içinde başlayacak futbol ve basketbol maçlarını `top_leagues.json` filtresiyle bulur.
+
+**Tekrar paylaşım koruması:** Başarılı platform paylaşımı alan maç ID'leri `storage/social-poster-posted.json` içinde son 500 kayıt olarak tutulur. Servis restart sonrası aynı maç tekrar paylaşılmaz.

 **Pipeline:** `predictAndPost(match)` → Tahmin al → Görsel üret → Caption üret → Paylaş

 **AI Engine İsteği:**
+
 ```typescript
 // POST — GET değil! AI Engine v20plus POST bekler.
-axios.post(`${aiEngineUrl}/v20plus/analyze/${matchId}`, null, { timeout: 30000 })
+axios.post(`${aiEngineUrl}/v20plus/analyze/${matchId}`, null, {
+  timeout: 30000,
+});
 ```

 **Veri Haritalandırma (V20+ → CardDto):**

 | V20+ Response Alanı     | CardDto Alanı                                  |
-|---|---|
+| ----------------------- | ---------------------------------------------- |
 | `score_prediction.ht`   | `htScore` (ör: "1-1")                          |
 | `score_prediction.ft`   | `ftScore` (ör: "2-1")                          |
 | `main_pick.confidence`  | `scoreConfidence` (ör: 65)                     |
@@ -68,7 +73,7 @@ axios.post(`${aiEngineUrl}/v20plus/analyze/${matchId}`, null, { timeout: 30000 }
 **Bet Summary Market Kodları:**

 | Kod     | Türkçe          | English           |
-|---|---|---|
+| ------- | --------------- | ----------------- |
 | MS      | Maç Sonucu      | Match Result      |
 | OU15    | Üst 1.5 Gol     | Over 1.5          |
 | OU25    | Üst 2.5 Gol     | Over 2.5          |
@@ -89,6 +94,7 @@ axios.post(`${aiEngineUrl}/v20plus/analyze/${matchId}`, null, { timeout: 30000 }
 **Boyut:** 1080×1920 px (Instagram Story / Reels uyumlu)

 **Özellikler:**
+
 - Koyu gradient arka plan (#0a0e27 → #1a1040 → #0d1b2a)
 - Lig adı + tarih başlık satırı
 - Takım logoları (200×200px) — `public/uploads/teams/` altından okunur
@@ -100,6 +106,7 @@ axios.post(`${aiEngineUrl}/v20plus/analyze/${matchId}`, null, { timeout: 30000 }
 - Alt bilgi: "⚡ AI Powered by SuggestBet"

 **Logo Çözümleme:**
+
 ```
 1. Yerel dosya varsa → public/uploads/teams/xxx.png oku
 2. URL http ile başlıyorsa → HTTP ile indir
@@ -119,7 +126,7 @@ Gemini API kullanarak maç verisi JSON'ından Türkçe post metni üretir.
 ## 5. API Endpointleri

 | Method | Path                                  | Auth    | Açıklama                                             |
-|---|---|---|---|
+| ------ | ------------------------------------- | ------- | ---------------------------------------------------- |
 | GET    | `/api/social-poster/preview/:matchId` | @Public | Sadece görsel üret + caption üret (paylaşma)         |
 | POST   | `/api/social-poster/post/:matchId`    | @Public | Görsel üret + caption üret + tüm platformlara paylaş |

@@ -130,12 +137,18 @@ Gemini API kullanarak maç verisi JSON'ından Türkçe post metni üretir.
 ## 6. Environment Değişkenleri

 | Key                                           | Zorunlu | Varsayılan               | Açıklama                                                             |
-|---|---|---|---|
+| --------------------------------------------- | ------- | ------------------------ | -------------------------------------------------------------------- |
 | `AI_ENGINE_URL`                               | ✅      | `http://localhost:8000`  | AI Engine base URL                                                   |
-| `APP_BASE_URL` | ✅ | `http://localhost:3000` | Logo URL çözümleme için |
+| `APP_BASE_URL`                                | ✅      | `http://localhost:3000`  | Meta'nın çekebileceği public görsel URL'i ve logo URL çözümleme için |
 | `SOCIAL_POSTER_ENABLED`                       | ❌      | `false`                  | Cron job'ı aktif/pasif                                               |
+| `SOCIAL_POSTER_SPORTS`                        | ❌      | `football,basketball`    | Otomatik paylaşılacak sporlar                                        |
+| `SOCIAL_POSTER_WINDOW_MIN`                    | ❌      | `25`                     | Başlama zaman penceresi alt sınırı (dakika)                          |
+| `SOCIAL_POSTER_WINDOW_MAX`                    | ❌      | `45`                     | Başlama zaman penceresi üst sınırı (dakika)                          |
+| `OLLAMA_BASE_URL`                             | ❌      | `http://localhost:11434` | Lokal LLM endpoint'i                                                 |
+| `OLLAMA_MODEL` / `SOCIAL_POSTER_OLLAMA_MODEL` | ❌      | —                        | Caption üretiminde kullanılacak lokal model                          |
 | `GOOGLE_API_KEY`                              | ❌      | —                        | Gemini caption için                                                  |
-| Twitter API keys | ❌ | — | Twitter paylaşım için |
+| Twitter API keys                              | ❌      | —                        | X medya upload + `/2/tweets` paylaşımı için OAuth 1.0a user context  |
+| `META_GRAPH_API_VERSION`                      | ❌      | `v25.0`                  | Meta Graph API sürümü                                                |
 | Meta API keys                                 | ❌      | —                        | FB/IG paylaşım için                                                  |

 ---
@@ -166,7 +179,7 @@ RUN apk add --no-cache cairo-dev pango-dev jpeg-dev giflib-dev librsvg-dev
 ### Port Yönetimi

 | Servis         | Port                                        |
-|---|---|
+| -------------- | ------------------------------------------- |
 | NestJS Backend | 3000 (production: 150X)                     |
 | AI Engine      | 8000 (dev: 8005 — Windows port kısıtlaması) |

@@ -183,7 +196,7 @@ public/
 ## 9. Bilinen Sorunlar & Çözümler

 | Sorun                                   | Sebep                                | Çözüm                                     |
-|---|---|---|
+| --------------------------------------- | ------------------------------------ | ----------------------------------------- |
 | `WinError 10013` port erişim hatası     | Windows Hyper-V port rezervasyonu    | Farklı port kullan (8005)                 |
 | `Invalid prisma.liveMatch.findUnique()` | Prisma client eskimiş                | `npx prisma generate` çalıştır            |
 | `405 Method Not Allowed` AI Engine      | GET yerine POST gerekiyor            | `axios.post()` kullan                     |
@@ -0,0 +1,370 @@
+# V28-Pro-Max Model Architecture Documentation
+
+> **Model Version:** `v28-pro-max`  
+> **Engine File:** `ai-engine/services/single_match_orchestrator.py` (4656 satır)  
+> **Son Güncelleme:** 2026-04-24
+
+---
+
+## 1. Genel Bakış
+
+V28-Pro-Max, üç bağımsız tahmin katmanını (V25, V27, V28) tek bir orchestrator içinde birleştiren **üçlü hibrit AI tahmin motorudur**. Her maç için 13+ bahis pazarını analiz eder, olasılık hesaplar, risk değerlendirir ve "Value Bet" tespiti yapar.
+
+```
+┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
+│              SingleMatchOrchestrator                │
+│                                                     │
+│  ┌──────────┐  ┌──────────┐  ┌────────────────┐   │
+│  │ V25      │  │ V27      │  │ V28            │   │
+│  │ Ensemble │  │ Dual-Eng │  │ Odds-Band      │   │
+│  │ (XGB+LGB)│  │ Divergnce│  │ Historical     │   │
+│  └────┬─────┘  └────┬─────┘  └───────┬────────┘   │
+│       │              │                │             │
+│       └──────────────┼────────────────┘             │
+│                      ▼                              │
+│           FullMatchPrediction                       │
+│                      │                              │
+│          ┌───────────┼───────────┐                  │
+│          ▼           ▼           ▼                  │
+│    Market Rows   Risk Calc   Triple Value           │
+│          │           │           │                   │
+│          └───────────┼───────────┘                  │
+│                      ▼                              │
+│          _build_prediction_package()                │
+│          → JSON Response (v28-pro-max)              │
+└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
+```
+
+---
+
+## 2. Katman Detayları
+
+### 2.1 V25 — Ensemble ML Katmanı
+**Dosya:** `ai-engine/models/v25_ensemble.py`
+
+- **Algoritmalar:** XGBoost + LightGBM ensemble
+- **Girdi:** Pre-match feature vektörü (form, elo, odds, kadro, hakem vb.)
+- **Çıktı:** Tüm pazarlar için olasılık dağılımları + confidence skorları
+- **Özellik:** Odds-aware (bahis oranlarını feature olarak kullanır)
+- **Target leakage koruması:** Maç sonucu bilgisi asla feature olarak kullanılmaz
+
+```python
+# V25 çağrılma noktası (orchestrator L310-315)
+v25_signal = v25_predictor.predict(features)
+# Çıktı: {MS: {home: 0.45, draw: 0.28, away: 0.27}, OU25: {...}, BTTS: {...}, ...}
+```
+
+### 2.2 V27 — Dual-Engine Divergence Katmanı
+**Dosya:** `ai-engine/models/v27_predictor.py`
+
+- **Amaç:** Odds-FREE temel olasılıkları hesaplar (sadece form/elo/kadro)
+- **Mekanizma:** V25 (odds-aware) vs V27 (odds-free) karşılaştırması
+- **Divergence Tespiti:** İki motor arasındaki fark → bahisçinin fiyatlandırma hatasını tespit eder
+- **Çıktı:** `ms_divergence`, `ou25_divergence`, `is_value` sinyalleri
+
+```python
+# Divergence hesaplama (orchestrator L830-863)
+ms_divergence = {
+    "home": v25_home_prob - v27_home_prob,  # Pozitif = V25 bahisçiyle hemfikir
+    "away": v25_away_prob - v27_away_prob,  # Negatif = Model bahisçiden farklı düşünüyor
+}
+ms_value = {
+    "home": {"is_value": v27_home > implied_home and abs(div) > 0.05},
+    "away": {"is_value": v27_away > implied_away and abs(div) > 0.05},
+}
+```
+
+### 2.3 V28 — Odds-Band Historical Performance Katmanı
+**Dosya:** `ai-engine/features/odds_band_analyzer.py`
+
+- **Amaç:** "Bu oran bandında tarihsel olarak ne oldu?" sorusunu yanıtlar
+- **Mekanizma:** Maçın mevcut oranını bir banda yerleştirir (ör: MS Home 1.70-1.90), ardından veritabanındaki aynı banddaki geçmiş maçları sorgular
+- **Sorgu:** PostgreSQL üzerinden takım-spesifik tarihsel performans
+
+```python
+# OddsBandAnalyzer.compute_all() çıktısı — 18 pazar için band metrikleri:
+{
+    "home_band_ms_win_rate": 0.62,      # Ev sahibi bu oran bandında %62 kazanmış
+    "home_band_ms_sample": 34,          # 34 maçlık örneklem
+    "band_ou25_over_rate": 0.58,        # Bu banddaki maçların %58'i 2.5 üst
+    "band_btts_yes_rate": 0.51,         # KG Var oranı
+    "band_htft_11_rate": 0.28,          # İY/MS 1/1 oranı
+    "band_cards_referee_avg": 4.2,      # Hakem kart ortalaması
+    # ... toplam 60+ feature
+}
+```
+
+---
+
+## 3. Analiz Edilen Bahis Pazarları (13+)
+
+| # | Pazar | Kod | Olasılık Alanları | Odds Anahtarları |
+|---|-------|-----|-------------------|------------------|
+| 1 | Maç Sonucu | `MS` | home/draw/away | ms_h, ms_d, ms_a |
+| 2 | Çifte Şans | `DC` | 1X/X2/12 | dc_1x, dc_x2, dc_12 |
+| 3 | Üst/Alt 1.5 | `OU15` | over/under | ou15_o, ou15_u |
+| 4 | Üst/Alt 2.5 | `OU25` | over/under | ou25_o, ou25_u |
+| 5 | Üst/Alt 3.5 | `OU35` | over/under | ou35_o, ou35_u |
+| 6 | Karşılıklı Gol | `BTTS` | yes/no | btts_y, btts_n |
+| 7 | İlk Yarı Sonucu | `HT` | 1/X/2 | ht_h, ht_d, ht_a |
+| 8 | İY/MS (9 kombo) | `HTFT` | 1/1, 1/X, 1/2, X/1, X/X, X/2, 2/1, 2/X, 2/2 | htft_11..htft_22 |
+| 9 | Tek/Çift | `OE` | odd/even | oe_odd, oe_even |
+| 10 | İY Üst/Alt 0.5 | `HT_OU05` | over/under | ht_ou05_o, ht_ou05_u |
+| 11 | İY Üst/Alt 1.5 | `HT_OU15` | over/under | ht_ou15_o, ht_ou15_u |
+| 12 | Kartlar | `CARDS` | over/under | cards_o, cards_u |
+| 13 | Handikap | `HCAP` | 1/X/2 | hcap_h, hcap_d, hcap_a |
+
+---
+
+## 4. Triple Value Detection (V28 Ana Yeniliği)
+
+V28'in en kritik özelliği: **3 bağımsız kaynağı çapraz kontrol ederek "gerçek değer" tespiti yapması.**
+
+```
+Triple Value = V27 Divergence + V28 Band Rate + Odds Implied Probability
+
+Koşullar (hepsi sağlanmalı):
+  1. V27 olasılığı > bahisçi implied olasılığı  (v27_confirms)
+  2. Band tarihsel oranı > implied olasılık       (band_confirms)
+  3. Kombine edge > %5                            (edge > 0.05)
+  4. Band örneklem >= 8 maç                        (band_sample >= 8)
+
+→ Tüm koşullar sağlanırsa: is_value = True
+```
+
+**Örnek:**
+```
+Galatasaray vs Beşiktaş — MS Home (1.85 oran)
+├── Implied Prob: 1/1.85 = 0.54 (%54)
+├── V27 (odds-free): 0.61 (%61) → ✅ V27 confirms (0.61 > 0.54)
+├── V28 Band Rate: 0.62 (%62, 34 maç) → ✅ Band confirms (0.62 > 0.54)
+├── Combined Prob: (0.61 + 0.62) / 2 = 0.615
+├── Edge: 0.615 - 0.54 = 0.075 (%7.5) → ✅ Edge > 5%
+└── is_value = TRUE → "Bu bahis değerli!"
+```
+
+---
+
+## 5. Market Row Dekorasyon Pipeline'ı
+
+Her pazar aşağıdaki pipeline'dan geçer:
+
+```
+_build_market_rows()          → Ham market row'ları oluştur (13 pazar)
+    ↓
+_apply_market_consistency()   → Pazarlar arası tutarlılık kontrolü
+    ↓
+_decorate_market_row()        → Her row'a playability, grading, staking ekle
+    ↓
+Sort by (playable, play_score) → En iyi pick'ler başa gelir
+```
+
+### 5.1 Decorate Market Row — Quant Hybrid Sistemi
+
+Her market row şu metriklerle dekore edilir:
+
+| Metrik | Formül | Açıklama |
+|--------|--------|----------|
+| `calibrated_confidence` | `raw_conf × market_calibration` | Kalibre edilmiş güven |
+| `ev_edge` | `(prob × odds) - 1.0` | Expected Value edge |
+| `simple_edge` | `prob - (1/odds)` | Basit olasılık farkı |
+| `play_score` | `cal_conf + (edge × 100 × edge_mult) - penalties` | Oynanabilirlik skoru |
+| `stake_units` | Quarter-Kelly Criterion | Önerilen bahis miktarı |
+| `bet_grade` | A/B/C/PASS | EV edge bazlı not |
+
+### 5.2 Playability Gates (Güvenlik Kapıları)
+
+Bir market row'un "playable" olması için tüm kapılardan geçmesi gerekir:
+
+1. **Confidence Gate:** `calibrated_conf >= min_conf` (pazar bazlı eşik)
+2. **Odds Gate:** Odds-required pazarlarda `odds > 1.01`
+3. **Risk-Quality Gate:** HIGH/EXTREME risk + LOW kalite → BLOK
+4. **Negative Edge Gate:** `simple_edge < neg_threshold` → BLOK
+5. **EV Edge Gate:** `ev_edge < min_edge` → BLOK
+6. **Play Score Gate:** `play_score < min_play_score` → BLOK
+
+### 5.3 Kelly Criterion Staking
+
+```python
+# Quarter-Kelly (¼ Kelly, 10-unit bankroll)
+f* = ((b × p) - q) / b    # Full Kelly
+stake = f* × 0.25 × 10    # Quarter Kelly × bankroll
+stake = min(stake, 3.0)    # Cap: max 3 unit
+stake = max(stake, 0.25)   # Floor: min 0.25 unit
+```
+
+---
+
+## 6. Guaranteed Pick Logic (V32 Calibration-Aware)
+
+Ana pick seçimi 4 öncelik sırasıyla yapılır:
+
+```
+Priority 1: HIGH_ACCURACY markets (DC, OU15, HT_OU05)
+            + Odds >= 1.30 + Confidence >= 44%
+            → is_guaranteed = True, reason = "high_accuracy_market"
+
+Priority 2: Any playable + Odds >= 1.30 + Conf >= 44%
+            → is_guaranteed = True, reason = "confidence_threshold_met"
+
+Priority 3: Any playable + Odds >= 1.30
+            → is_guaranteed = False, reason = "odds_only_fallback"
+
+Priority 4: Best non-playable (last resort)
+            → is_guaranteed = False, reason = "last_resort"
+```
+
+**Value Pick:** `main_pick`'ten farklı, odds >= 1.60, confidence >= %40 olan en iyi alternatif.
+
+**Aggressive Pick:** HT/FT reversal senaryoları (1/2, 2/1, X/1, X/2) arasından en yüksek olasılıklı.
+
+---
+
+## 7. Risk Assessment Sistemi
+
+```python
+risk_score = 100 - max_market_conf + lineup_penalty + referee_penalty + parity_penalty
+
+# Penalty'ler:
+lineup_penalty  = 12.0 (kadro yok) | 7.0 (probable_xi) | 0.0 (confirmed)
+referee_penalty = 6.0 (hakem yok) | 0.0
+parity_penalty  = 8.0 (|ms_edge| < 0.08) | 0.0
+
+# Risk seviyeleri:
+EXTREME: score >= 78
+HIGH:    score >= 62
+MEDIUM:  score >= 40
+LOW:     score < 40
+```
+
+### Surprise Risk Tespiti
+- `is_surprise_risk = True` → Risk HIGH/EXTREME VEYA draw_prob >= %30
+- `surprise_type`: `balanced_match_risk` veya `draw_pressure`
+
+---
+
+## 8. xG ve Skor Tahmini
+
+```python
+base_home_xg = (home_goals_avg + away_xga) / 2
+base_away_xg = (away_goals_avg + home_xga) / 2
+
+# MS edge ve BTTS etkisiyle düzeltme:
+home_xg = base_home_xg + (ms_edge × 0.55) + (btts_prob - 0.5) × 0.18
+away_xg = base_away_xg - (ms_edge × 0.55) + (btts_prob - 0.5) × 0.18
+
+# Liga ortalamasıyla ölçekleme:
+total_target = league_avg_goals × 0.55 + team_avgs × 0.45 + ou25_signal × 1.15
+scale = total_target / (home_xg + away_xg)
+final_home_xg = home_xg × scale
+final_away_xg = away_xg × scale
+
+# Skor tahmini:
+FT = round(home_xg) - round(away_xg)
+HT = round(home_xg × 0.45) - round(away_xg × 0.45)
+Top5 = Poisson dağılımı ile en olası 5 skor
+```
+
+---
+
+## 9. Data Quality Skoru
+
+```python
+quality_score = odds_score × 0.35 + lineup_score × 0.35 + ref_score × 0.15 + form_score × 0.15
+
+# Etiketleme:
+HIGH:   score >= 0.75
+MEDIUM: score >= 0.45
+LOW:    score < 0.45
+```
+
+---
+
+## 10. Çıktı JSON Kontratı
+
+```json
+{
+  "model_version": "v28-pro-max",
+  "match_info": { "match_id", "home_team", "away_team", "league", ... },
+  "data_quality": { "label", "score", "lineup_source", "flags" },
+  "risk": { "level", "score", "is_surprise_risk", "warnings" },
+  "engine_breakdown": { "team", "player", "odds", "referee" },
+  "main_pick": { "market", "pick", "confidence", "odds", "ev_edge", "bet_grade", "is_guaranteed" },
+  "value_pick": { ... },
+  "aggressive_pick": { "market": "HT/FT", "pick": "1/2", ... },
+  "bet_advice": { "playable", "suggested_stake_units", "reason" },
+  "bet_summary": [ { "market", "pick", "calibrated_confidence", "bet_grade", "ev_edge", ... } ],
+  "supporting_picks": [ ... ],
+  "score_prediction": { "ft", "ht", "xg_home", "xg_away", "xg_total" },
+  "scenario_top5": [ "1-0", "2-1", ... ],
+  "market_board": { "MS": {...}, "DC": {...}, "OU25": {...}, ... },
+  "v25_signal": { "available", "markets", "value_bets" },
+  "reasoning_factors": [ ... ]
+}
+```
+
+---
+
+## 11. League-Specific Odds Reliability (V31)
+
+Bazı liglerin bahis oranları daha güvenilirdir. Bu bilgi `_decorate_market_row` içinde edge ağırlıklandırmasında kullanılır:
+
+```python
+odds_rel = league_reliability.get(league_id, 0.35)  # 0.0 - 1.0
+edge_multiplier = 0.60 + (odds_rel × 0.60)          # 0.60 - 1.20
+
+# Güvenilir lig → edge daha fazla ağırlık alır
+# Güvenilsiz lig → model confidence'a daha çok güvenilir
+```
+
+---
+
+## 12. Dosya Haritası
+
+```
+ai-engine/
+├── services/
+│   └── single_match_orchestrator.py  ← Ana orchestrator (4656 satır)
+├── models/
+│   ├── v25_ensemble.py               ← XGBoost + LightGBM ensemble
+│   └── v27_predictor.py              ← Odds-free fundamental predictor
+├── features/
+│   └── odds_band_analyzer.py         ← V28 tarihsel band analizi
+└── main.py                           ← FastAPI endpoint (/predict)
+```
+
+---
+
+## 13. Akış Özeti
+
+```
+HTTP POST /predict {match_id}
+    │
+    ▼
+SingleMatchOrchestrator.analyze_match(match_id)
+    │
+    ├── _load_match_data()         → DB'den maç + odds + kadro + form
+    │
+    ├── V25: v25_predictor.predict(features)
+    │        → 13 pazar olasılık + confidence
+    │
+    ├── V27: v27_predictor.predict(features)
+    │        → Odds-free MS/OU25 olasılıkları
+    │        → Divergence hesaplama
+    │
+    ├── V28: odds_band_analyzer.compute_all()
+    │        → 18 pazar için tarihsel band metrikleri
+    │
+    ├── Triple Value Detection
+    │        → V27 + V28 + Implied çapraz kontrol
+    │
+    ├── _enrich_prediction()       → xG, risk, skor tahmini
+    │
+    ├── _build_market_rows()       → 13+ ham market row
+    ├── _apply_market_consistency()
+    ├── _decorate_market_row()     → EV, Kelly, grading
+    │
+    ├── Guaranteed Pick Selection  → main_pick, value_pick, aggressive_pick
+    │
+    └── _build_prediction_package() → Final JSON kontratı
+```
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      "integrity": "sha512-0zZC2ygfdqvqK8zJIr1e+wT1T/L+LF6qvqvbzEQ6tiMAoTqEVK9a1K3YRu8HEUvGEvNqZyPJTtb2sNIoTkB83w==",
-      "peer": true,
      "dependencies": {
        "@pinojs/redact": "^0.4.0",
        "atomic-sleep": "^1.0.0",
@@ -11077,7 +11051,6 @@
      "version": "11.0.0",
      "resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/pino-http/-/pino-http-11.0.0.tgz",
      "integrity": "sha512-wqg5XIAGRRIWtTk8qPGxkbrfiwEWz1lgedVLvhLALudKXvg1/L2lTFgTGPJ4Z2e3qcRmxoFxDuSdMdMGNM6I1g==",
-      "peer": true,
      "dependencies": {
        "get-caller-file": "^2.0.5",
        "pino": "^10.0.0",
@@ -11286,7 +11259,6 @@
      "resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/prettier/-/prettier-3.7.4.tgz",
      "integrity": "sha512-v6UNi1+3hSlVvv8fSaoUbggEM5VErKmmpGA7Pl3HF8V6uKY7rvClBOJlH6yNwQtfTueNkGVpOv/mtWL9L4bgRA==",
      "dev": true,
-      "peer": true,
      "bin": {
        "prettier": "bin/prettier.cjs"
      },
@@ -11340,7 +11312,6 @@
      "resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/prisma/-/prisma-5.22.0.tgz",
      "integrity": "sha512-vtpjW3XuYCSnMsNVBjLMNkTj6OZbudcPPTPYHqX0CJfpcdWciI1dM8uHETwmDxxiqEwCIE6WvXucWUetJgfu/A==",
      "hasInstallScript": true,
-      "peer": true,
      "dependencies": {
        "@prisma/engines": "5.22.0"
      },
@@ -12479,7 +12450,6 @@
      "resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/ajv/-/ajv-8.17.1.tgz",
      "integrity": "sha512-B/gBuNg5SiMTrPkC+A2+cW0RszwxYmn6VYxB/inlBStS5nx6xHIt/ehKRhIMhqusl7a8LjQoZnjCs5vhwxOQ1g==",
      "dev": true,
-      "peer": true,
      "dependencies": {
        "fast-deep-equal": "^3.1.3",
        "fast-uri": "^3.0.1",
@@ -12794,7 +12764,6 @@
      "resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/ts-node/-/ts-node-10.9.2.tgz",
      "integrity": "sha512-f0FFpIdcHgn8zcPSbf1dRevwt047YMnaiJM3u2w2RewrB+fob/zePZcrOyQoLMMO7aBIddLcQIEK5dYjkLnGrQ==",
      "dev": true,
-      "peer": true,
      "dependencies": {
        "@cspotcode/source-map-support": "^0.8.0",
        "@tsconfig/node10": "^1.0.7",
@@ -12950,7 +12919,6 @@
      "resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/typescript/-/typescript-5.9.3.tgz",
      "integrity": "sha512-jl1vZzPDinLr9eUt3J/t7V6FgNEw9QjvBPdysz9KfQDD41fQrC2Y4vKQdiaUpFT4bXlb1RHhLpp8wtm6M5TgSw==",
      "dev": true,
-      "peer": true,
      "bin": {
        "tsc": "bin/tsc",
        "tsserver": "bin/tsserver"
@@ -13298,6 +13266,7 @@
      "resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/ajv-formats/-/ajv-formats-2.1.1.tgz",
      "integrity": "sha512-Wx0Kx52hxE7C18hkMEggYlEifqWZtYaRgouJor+WMdPnQyEK13vgEWyVNup7SoeeoLMsr4kf5h6dOW11I15MUA==",
      "dev": true,
+      "peer": true,
      "dependencies": {
        "ajv": "^8.0.0"
      },
@@ -13315,6 +13284,7 @@
      "resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/ajv-keywords/-/ajv-keywords-5.1.0.tgz",
      "integrity": "sha512-YCS/JNFAUyr5vAuhk1DWm1CBxRHW9LbJ2ozWeemrIqpbsqKjHVxYPyi5GC0rjZIT5JxJ3virVTS8wk4i/Z+krw==",
      "dev": true,
+      "peer": true,
      "dependencies": {
        "fast-deep-equal": "^3.1.3"
      },
@@ -13327,6 +13297,7 @@
      "resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/eslint-scope/-/eslint-scope-5.1.1.tgz",
      "integrity": "sha512-2NxwbF/hZ0KpepYN0cNbo+FN6XoK7GaHlQhgx/hIZl6Va0bF45RQOOwhLIy8lQDbuCiadSLCBnH2CFYquit5bw==",
      "dev": true,
+      "peer": true,
      "dependencies": {
        "esrecurse": "^4.3.0",
        "estraverse": "^4.1.1"
@@ -13340,6 +13311,7 @@
      "resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/estraverse/-/estraverse-4.3.0.tgz",
      "integrity": "sha512-39nnKffWz8xN1BU/2c79n9nB9HDzo0niYUqx6xyqUnyoAnQyyWpOTdZEeiCch8BBu515t4wp9ZmgVfVhn9EBpw==",
      "dev": true,
+      "peer": true,
      "engines": {
        "node": ">=4.0"
      }
@@ -13348,13 +13320,15 @@
      "version": "1.0.0",
      "resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/json-schema-traverse/-/json-schema-traverse-1.0.0.tgz",
      "integrity": "sha512-NM8/P9n3XjXhIZn1lLhkFaACTOURQXjWhV4BA/RnOv8xvgqtqpAX9IO4mRQxSx1Rlo4tqzeqb0sOlruaOy3dug==",
-      "dev": true
+      "dev": true,
+      "peer": true
    },
    "node_modules/webpack/node_modules/mime-db": {
      "version": "1.52.0",
      "resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/mime-db/-/mime-db-1.52.0.tgz",
      "integrity": "sha512-sPU4uV7dYlvtWJxwwxHD0PuihVNiE7TyAbQ5SWxDCB9mUYvOgroQOwYQQOKPJ8CIbE+1ETVlOoK1UC2nU3gYvg==",
      "dev": true,
+      "peer": true,
      "engines": {
        "node": ">= 0.6"
      }
@@ -13364,6 +13338,7 @@
      "resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/mime-types/-/mime-types-2.1.35.tgz",
      "integrity": "sha512-ZDY+bPm5zTTF+YpCrAU9nK0UgICYPT0QtT1NZWFv4s++TNkcgVaT0g6+4R2uI4MjQjzysHB1zxuWL50hzaeXiw==",
      "dev": true,
+      "peer": true,
      "dependencies": {
        "mime-db": "1.52.0"
      },
@@ -13376,6 +13351,7 @@
      "resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/schema-utils/-/schema-utils-4.3.3.tgz",
      "integrity": "sha512-eflK8wEtyOE6+hsaRVPxvUKYCpRgzLqDTb8krvAsRIwOGlHoSgYLgBXoubGgLd2fT41/OUYdb48v4k4WWHQurA==",
      "dev": true,
+      "peer": true,
      "dependencies": {
        "@types/json-schema": "^7.0.9",
        "ajv": "^8.9.0",
@@ -22,14 +22,14 @@
    "ai:backtest": "python ai-engine/scripts/backtest_v2_runtime.py",
    "ai:train:vqwen": "python ai-engine/scripts/train_vqwen_v3.py",
    "feeder:historical": "ts-node -r tsconfig-paths/register src/scripts/run-feeder.ts",
-    "feeder:previous-day": "ts-node -r tsconfig-paths/register src/scripts/run-feeder.ts",
+    "feeder:repair": "ts-node -r tsconfig-paths/register src/scripts/run-feeder-repair.ts",
+    "feeder:previous-day": "ts-node -r tsconfig-paths/register src/scripts/run-feeder-previous-day.ts",
    "feeder:fill-gaps": "ts-node -r tsconfig-paths/register src/scripts/run-feeder-filtered.ts",
    "feeder:basketball": "ts-node -r tsconfig-paths/register src/scripts/run-feeder-basketball.ts",
    "feeder:live": "ts-node -r tsconfig-paths/register src/scripts/run-live-feeder.ts",
    "cleanup:live": "ts-node -r tsconfig-paths/register src/scripts/cleanup-live-matches.ts",
    "swagger:summary": "ts-node -r tsconfig-paths/register src/scripts/export-swagger-endpoints-summary.ts",
-    "postman:export": "ts-node -r tsconfig-paths/register src/scripts/export-postman-collection.ts"
-    ,
+    "postman:export": "ts-node -r tsconfig-paths/register src/scripts/export-postman-collection.ts",
    "ai:extract:v26": "python3 ai-engine/scripts/extract_training_data_v26.py",
    "ai:train:v26": "python3 ai-engine/scripts/train_v26_shadow.py",
    "ai:backtest:v26": "python3 ai-engine/scripts/backtest_v26_shadow.py",
@@ -55,7 +55,7 @@
    "@nestjs/swagger": "^11.2.4",
    "@nestjs/terminus": "^11.0.0",
    "@nestjs/throttler": "^6.5.0",
-    "@prisma/client": "^5.22.0",
+    "@prisma/client": "5.22.0",
    "axios": "^1.13.6",
    "bcrypt": "^6.0.0",
    "bullmq": "^5.66.4",
@@ -75,7 +75,7 @@
    "passport-jwt": "^4.0.1",
    "pino": "^10.1.0",
    "pino-http": "^11.0.0",
-    "prisma": "^5.22.0",
+    "prisma": "5.22.0",
    "reflect-metadata": "^0.2.2",
    "rxjs": "^7.8.1",
    "twitter-api-v2": "^1.29.0",
@@ -543,6 +543,7 @@ model User {
  analyses              Analysis[]
  refreshTokens         RefreshToken[]
  usageLimit            UsageLimit?
+  subscription          Subscription?
  coupons               UserCoupon[]
  totoCoupons           TotoCoupon[]

@@ -551,6 +552,27 @@ model User {
  @@map("users")
 }

+model Subscription {
+  id                   String              @id @default(uuid())
+  userId               String              @unique @map("user_id")
+  paddleSubscriptionId String?             @unique @map("paddle_subscription_id")
+  paddleCustomerId     String?             @map("paddle_customer_id")
+  plan                 SubscriptionStatus  @default(free)
+  billingInterval      BillingInterval?    @map("billing_interval")
+  currentPeriodStart   DateTime?           @map("current_period_start")
+  currentPeriodEnd     DateTime?           @map("current_period_end")
+  cancelledAt          DateTime?           @map("cancelled_at")
+  cancelEffectiveDate  DateTime?           @map("cancel_effective_date")
+  paddlePriceId        String?             @map("paddle_price_id")
+  createdAt            DateTime            @default(now()) @map("created_at")
+  updatedAt            DateTime            @updatedAt @map("updated_at")
+  user                 User                @relation(fields: [userId], references: [id], onDelete: Cascade)
+
+  @@index([paddleSubscriptionId])
+  @@index([paddleCustomerId])
+  @@map("subscriptions")
+}
+
 model RefreshToken {
  id        String   @id @default(uuid())
  token     String   @unique
@@ -569,6 +591,8 @@ model UsageLimit {
  userId        String   @unique @map("user_id")
  analysisCount Int      @default(0) @map("analysis_count")
  couponCount   Int      @default(0) @map("coupon_count")
+  maxAnalyses   Int      @default(3) @map("max_analyses")
+  maxCoupons    Int      @default(1) @map("max_coupons")
  lastResetDate DateTime @map("last_reset_date") @db.Date
  createdAt     DateTime @default(now()) @map("created_at")
  updatedAt     DateTime @updatedAt @map("updated_at")
@@ -765,8 +789,15 @@ enum UserRole {

 enum SubscriptionStatus {
  free
-  active
-  expired
+  plus
+  premium
+  past_due
+  cancelled
+}
+
+enum BillingInterval {
+  monthly
+  yearly
 }

 enum PlayerPosition {
@@ -24,7 +24,7 @@ async function main() {
        firstName: 'Super',
        lastName: 'Admin',
        role: UserRole.superadmin,
-        subscriptionStatus: SubscriptionStatus.active,
+        subscriptionStatus: SubscriptionStatus.free,
        isActive: true,
      },
    });
@@ -0,0 +1,267 @@
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+]
@@ -1,109 +0,0 @@
-
-import os
-import sys
-import torch
-import torch.nn.functional as F
-import pandas as pd
-import numpy as np
-
-# Path alignment
-sys.path.append(os.getcwd())
-sys.path.append(os.path.join(os.getcwd(), 'ai-engine'))
-
-from pipeline.tiered_loader import TieredDataLoader
-from pipeline.sequence_builder import SequenceBuilder
-from models.hybrid_v11 import HybridDeepModel
-from features.odds_history import OddsHistoryEngine
-from features.synthetic_xg import SyntheticXGModel
-
-DEVICE = 'cpu'
-MODEL_PATH = 'ai-engine/models/v11_hybrid_model.pth'
-TARGET_ID = 'en78ih6ec7exnpxcku3xc3das'
-
-def audit():
-    print(f"🕵️  Auditing Match: {TARGET_ID}")
-    
-    # 1. Pipeline Data
-    builder = SequenceBuilder()
-    X, y, meta = builder.build_sequences()
-    
-    # Check if target is in dataset
-    idx_list = meta.index[meta['match_id'] == TARGET_ID].tolist()
-    if not idx_list:
-        print("❌ Match not found in generated sequences. Is it too old or too new?")
-        return
-    
-    idx = idx_list[0]
-    row_meta = meta.iloc[idx]
-    
-    # 2. Features
-    loader = TieredDataLoader()
-    odds_df = loader.load_gold_data([TARGET_ID])
-    eng = OddsHistoryEngine()
-    xg_model = SyntheticXGModel()
-    
-    # Team Mapping
-    unique_teams = meta['team_id'].unique()
-    team_map = {tid: i for i, tid in enumerate(unique_teams)}
-    
-    # 3. Predict exactly like Backtest
-    state = torch.load(MODEL_PATH, map_location=DEVICE)
-    emb_key = 'entity_emb.weight' if 'entity_emb.weight' in state else 'team_embedding.weight'
-    saved_vocab_size = state[emb_key].shape[0]
-    
-    model = HybridDeepModel(num_teams=saved_vocab_size)
-    new_state = {k.replace('team_embedding', 'entity_emb'): v for k, v in state.items()}
-    model.load_state_dict(new_state, strict=False)
-    model.eval()
-    
-    # Data components
-    team_idx = team_map.get(row_meta['team_id'], 0)
-    entities = torch.LongTensor([team_idx, 0]).unsqueeze(0)
-    seq = torch.FloatTensor(X[idx]).unsqueeze(0)
-    
-    # Context (Odds + xG)
-    odds_lookup = {}
-    for _, r in odds_df.iterrows():
-        mid = r['match_id']
-        if mid not in odds_lookup: odds_lookup[mid] = {}
-        if r['category'] == 'Maç Sonucu': odds_lookup[mid][r['selection']] = r['odd_value']
-        elif r['category'] == '2,5 Alt/Üst':
-            if 'Üst' in r['selection']: odds_lookup[mid]['Over'] = r['odd_value']
-            else: odds_lookup[mid]['Under'] = r['odd_value']
-            
-    odds = odds_lookup.get(TARGET_ID, {'1': 1.0, 'X': 1.0, '2': 1.0, 'Over': 1.0, 'Under': 1.0})
-    syn_xg = 1.35 # Placeholder in trainer for xG component if used
-    hist_win_rate = eng.get_feature(row_meta['team_id'], float(odds.get('1', 1.0)))
-    
-    ctx = torch.FloatTensor([
-        float(odds.get('1', 1.0)), float(odds.get('X', 1.0)), float(odds.get('2', 1.0)),
-        float(odds.get('Over', 1.0)), float(odds.get('Under', 1.0)),
-        syn_xg, syn_xg,
-        hist_win_rate
-    ]).unsqueeze(0)
-    
-    with torch.no_grad():
-        logits_res, pred_goals, logits_btts, logits_ht_ft = model(entities, seq, ctx)
-        probs = F.softmax(logits_res, dim=1).numpy()[0]
-        prob_btts = torch.sigmoid(logits_btts).item()
-        probs_ht = F.softmax(logits_ht_ft, dim=1).numpy()[0]
-        
-    print("\n📊 INTERNAL PIPELINE PREDICTION:")
-    print(f"Target Team: {row_meta['team_id']}")
-    print(f"1X2 Probs: Home:{probs[0]:.4f} Draw:{probs[1]:.4f} Away:{probs[2]:.4f}")
-    print(f"BTTS Prob: {prob_btts:.4f}")
-    
-    ht_map = ["1/1", "1/X", "1/2", "X/1", "X/X", "X/2", "2/1", "2/X", "2/2"]
-    top3_ht = np.argsort(probs_ht)[-3:][::-1]
-    print("Top 3 HT/FT:")
-    for idx_ht in top3_ht:
-        print(f"  {ht_map[idx_ht]}: {probs_ht[idx_ht]:.4f}")
-    
-    actual_res = y[idx][0]
-    actual_ht_idx = int(y[idx][3])
-    print(f"\n✅ ACTUAL REALITY:")
-    print(f"Result (Y): {actual_res} (0.0=Away)")
-    print(f"HT/FT Class: {actual_ht_idx} ({ht_map[actual_ht_idx]})")
-
-if __name__ == "__main__":
-    audit()
@@ -1,58 +0,0 @@
-#!/usr/bin/env python3
-"""Test surprise detection on known surprise matches."""
-
-import sys
-sys.path.insert(0, 'ai-engine')
-from services.single_match_orchestrator import SingleMatchOrchestrator
-import json
-
-# Test Bayern vs Augsburg (24 Jan 2026) - 1/2 Reversal
-match_id = 'en78ih6ec7exnpxcku3xc3das'
-
-orch = SingleMatchOrchestrator()
-result = orch.analyze_match(match_id)
-
-if result:
-    print('=== Bayern Munch vs Augsburg (24 Jan 2026) ===')
-    print('Actual: HT 1-0, FT 1-2 (1/2 Reversal!)')
-    print()
-    
-    # Check risk
-    risk = result.get('risk', {})
-    print(f"Risk Level: {risk.get('level', 'N/A')}")
-    print(f"Is Surprise Risk: {risk.get('is_surprise_risk', False)}")
-    print(f"Surprise Type: {risk.get('surprise_type', 'N/A')}")
-    print(f"Risk Score: {risk.get('score', 'N/A')}")
-    print()
-    
-    # Check HT/FT probabilities from market_board
-    htft = result.get('market_board', {}).get('HTFT', {}).get('probs', {})
-    print('HT/FT Probabilities:')
-    if htft:
-        for k, v in sorted(htft.items(), key=lambda x: x[1], reverse=True):
-            print(f"  {k}: {v*100:.1f}%")
-    else:
-        print("  EMPTY!")
-    print()
-    
-    # Check main pick
-    main = result.get('main_pick', {})
-    print(f"Main Pick: {main.get('market', 'N/A')} - {main.get('pick', 'N/A')}")
-    print(f"Confidence: {main.get('calibrated_confidence', 'N/A')}%")
-    print(f"Is Guaranteed: {main.get('is_guaranteed', False)}")
-    print()
-    
-    # Check aggressive pick
-    agg = result.get('aggressive_pick', {})
-    if agg:
-        print(f"Aggressive Pick: {agg.get('market', 'N/A')} - {agg.get('pick', 'N/A')}")
-        print(f"Odds: {agg.get('odds', 'N/A')}")
-    print()
-    
-    # Check bet_summary for HTFT
-    bet_summary = result.get('bet_summary', [])
-    for bet in bet_summary:
-        if bet.get('market') == 'HTFT':
-            print(f"HTFT Bet: {bet}")
-else:
-    print('Match not found')
@@ -1,95 +0,0 @@
-#!/usr/bin/env python3
-"""Test the improved surprise detection logic"""
-
-import sys
-sys.path.insert(0, 'ai-engine')
-
-from core.calculators.risk_assessor import RiskAssessor
-from config.config_loader import get_config
-
-def test_surprise_detection():
-    config = get_config()
-    assessor = RiskAssessor(config)
-    
-    # Test cases based on real scenarios
-    test_cases = [
-        {
-            'name': 'Bayern vs Augsburg (1.30 odds, 2% 1/2 prob)',
-            'odds': {'ms_h': 1.30, 'ms_d': 5.00, 'ms_a': 8.00},
-            'ht_ft': {'1/1': 0.30, '1/X': 0.07, '1/2': 0.02, 'X/1': 0.15, 'X/X': 0.16, 'X/2': 0.09, '2/1': 0.03, '2/X': 0.04, '2/2': 0.14},
-            'expected_surprise': True,
-            'expected_type': '1/2 Potential Upset'
-        },
-        {
-            'name': 'Strong favorite (1.20 odds, 1.5% 1/2 prob)',
-            'odds': {'ms_h': 1.20, 'ms_d': 6.00, 'ms_a': 12.00},
-            'ht_ft': {'1/1': 0.35, '1/X': 0.05, '1/2': 0.015, 'X/1': 0.20, 'X/X': 0.15, 'X/2': 0.05, '2/1': 0.02, '2/X': 0.03, '2/2': 0.10},
-            'expected_surprise': True,
-            'expected_type': '1/2 Potential Upset'
-        },
-        {
-            'name': 'Moderate favorite (1.50 odds, 3% 1/2 prob)',
-            'odds': {'ms_h': 1.50, 'ms_d': 4.00, 'ms_a': 6.00},
-            'ht_ft': {'1/1': 0.28, '1/X': 0.08, '1/2': 0.03, 'X/1': 0.18, 'X/X': 0.15, 'X/2': 0.08, '2/1': 0.04, '2/X': 0.05, '2/2': 0.11},
-            'expected_surprise': True,
-            'expected_type': '1/2 Potential Upset'
-        },
-        {
-            'name': 'Even match (2.00 odds, 5% 1/2 prob)',
-            'odds': {'ms_h': 2.00, 'ms_d': 3.30, 'ms_a': 3.30},
-            'ht_ft': {'1/1': 0.20, '1/X': 0.10, '1/2': 0.05, 'X/1': 0.15, 'X/X': 0.15, 'X/2': 0.10, '2/1': 0.05, '2/X': 0.10, '2/2': 0.10},
-            'expected_surprise': False,  # No clear favorite
-            'expected_type': None
-        },
-        {
-            'name': 'Away favorite (1.40 away odds, 2% 2/1 prob)',
-            'odds': {'ms_h': 6.00, 'ms_d': 4.00, 'ms_a': 1.40},
-            'ht_ft': {'1/1': 0.10, '1/X': 0.05, '1/2': 0.04, 'X/1': 0.08, 'X/X': 0.15, 'X/2': 0.20, '2/1': 0.02, '2/X': 0.06, '2/2': 0.30},
-            'expected_surprise': True,
-            'expected_type': '2/1 Potential Upset'
-        },
-    ]
-    
-    print("=" * 70)
-    print("SURPRISE DETECTION TEST RESULTS")
-    print("=" * 70)
-    
-    passed = 0
-    failed = 0
-    
-    for tc in test_cases:
-        class MockCtx:
-            is_surprise = False
-            is_top_league = True
-            sport = 'football'
-            xgboost_preds = {'ht_ft': tc['ht_ft']}
-            odds_data = tc['odds']
-        
-        result = assessor.assess_risk(MockCtx())
-        
-        # Check if result matches expectation
-        is_correct = result.is_surprise_risk == tc['expected_surprise']
-        if tc['expected_type'] and result.surprise_type != tc['expected_type']:
-            is_correct = False
-        
-        status = "✅ PASS" if is_correct else "❌ FAIL"
-        if is_correct:
-            passed += 1
-        else:
-            failed += 1
-        
-        print(f"\n{status} - {tc['name']}")
-        print(f"  Expected: surprise={tc['expected_surprise']}, type={tc['expected_type']}")
-        print(f"  Got:      surprise={result.is_surprise_risk}, type={result.surprise_type}")
-        if result.reasons:
-            print(f"  Reasons: {result.reasons}")
-    
-    print("\n" + "=" * 70)
-    print(f"SUMMARY: {passed} passed, {failed} failed")
-    print("=" * 70)
-    
-    return failed == 0
-
-if __name__ == "__main__":
-    success = test_surprise_detection()
-    sys.exit(0 if success else 1)
@@ -1,65 +0,0 @@
-#!/usr/bin/env python3
-"""Test UpsetEngine on Bayern vs Augsburg match."""
-
-import sys
-sys.path.insert(0, 'ai-engine')
-from features.upset_engine import get_upset_engine
-from data.db import get_clean_dsn
-import psycopg2
-from psycopg2.extras import RealDictCursor
-from datetime import datetime
-
-# Get match data
-conn = psycopg2.connect(get_clean_dsn())
-cur = conn.cursor(cursor_factory=RealDictCursor)
-
-cur.execute("""
-SELECT m.id, m.home_team_id, m.away_team_id, m.score_home, m.score_away, 
-       m.ht_score_home, m.ht_score_away, m.mst_utc,
-       th.name as home_name, ta.name as away_name, l.name as league
-FROM matches m
-JOIN teams th ON m.home_team_id = th.id
-JOIN teams ta ON m.away_team_id = ta.id
-JOIN leagues l ON m.league_id = l.id
-WHERE m.id = 'en78ih6ec7exnpxcku3xc3das'
-""")
-match = cur.fetchone()
-conn.close()
-
-if match:
-    print('=== Bayern Munch vs Augsburg (24 Jan 2026) ===')
-    print(f"Actual: HT {match['ht_score_home']}-{match['ht_score_away']}, FT {match['score_home']}-{match['score_away']} (1/2 Reversal!)")
-    print()
-    
-    # Test UpsetEngine
-    engine = get_upset_engine()
-    
-    # Calculate upset potential using get_features
-    result = engine.get_features(
-        home_team_name=match['home_name'],
-        home_team_id=match['home_team_id'],
-        away_team_name=match['away_name'],
-        league_name=match['league'],
-        home_position=1,  # Bayern is typically top
-        away_position=15,  # Augsburg is typically lower
-        match_date_ms=match['mst_utc'],
-        total_teams=18,
-    )
-    
-    print('UpsetEngine Results:')
-    print(f"  Atmosphere Score: {result.get('upset_atmosphere', 0):.2f}")
-    print(f"  Motivation Score: {result.get('upset_motivation', 0):.2f}")
-    print(f"  Fatigue Score: {result.get('upset_fatigue', 0):.2f}")
-    print(f"  Historical Score: {result.get('upset_historical', 0):.2f}")
-    print(f"  TOTAL UPSET POTENTIAL: {result.get('upset_potential', 0):.2f}")
-    print()
-    
-    # Check if upset was detected
-    if result.get('upset_potential', 0) > 0.5:
-        print("🔥 HIGH UPSET POTENTIAL DETECTED!")
-    elif result.get('upset_potential', 0) > 0.3:
-        print("⚠️ MEDIUM UPSET POTENTIAL")
-    else:
-        print("❌ LOW UPSET POTENTIAL - Model did not detect this as upset")
-else:
-    print('Match not found')
@@ -1,22 +0,0 @@
-import { Test, TestingModule } from "@nestjs/testing";
-import { AppController } from "./app.controller";
-import { AppService } from "./app.service";
-
-describe("AppController", () => {
-  let appController: AppController;
-
-  beforeEach(async () => {
-    const app: TestingModule = await Test.createTestingModule({
-      controllers: [AppController],
-      providers: [AppService],
-    }).compile();
-
-    appController = app.get<AppController>(AppController);
-  });
-
-  describe("root", () => {
-    it('should return "Hello World!"', () => {
-      expect(appController.getHello()).toBe("Hello World!");
-    });
-  });
-});
@@ -50,6 +50,8 @@ import { LeaguesModule } from "./modules/leagues/leagues.module";
 import { AnalysisModule } from "./modules/analysis/analysis.module";
 import { CouponsModule } from "./modules/coupons/coupons.module";
 import { SporTotoModule } from "./modules/spor-toto/spor-toto.module";
+import { AiProxyModule } from "./modules/ai-proxy/ai-proxy.module";
+import { SubscriptionsModule } from "./modules/subscriptions/subscriptions.module";

 // Services and Tasks
 import { ServicesModule } from "./services/services.module";
@@ -76,6 +78,7 @@ const historicalFeederMode = process.env.FEEDER_MODE === "historical";
    // Configuration
    ConfigModule.forRoot({
      isGlobal: true,
+      envFilePath: [".env.local", ".env"],
      validate: validateEnv,
      load: [
        appConfig,
@@ -201,6 +204,8 @@ const historicalFeederMode = process.env.FEEDER_MODE === "historical";
    AnalysisModule,
    CouponsModule,
    SporTotoModule,
+    AiProxyModule,
+    SubscriptionsModule,

    // Services and Scheduled Tasks
    ServicesModule,
@@ -69,9 +69,8 @@ export class AiEngineClient {
    this.defaultTimeoutMs = options.timeoutMs ?? 30000;
    this.maxRetries = options.maxRetries ?? 2;
    this.retryDelayMs = options.retryDelayMs ?? 750;
-    this.circuitBreakerThreshold = options.circuitBreakerThreshold ?? 3;
-    this.circuitBreakerCooldownMs =
-      options.circuitBreakerCooldownMs ?? 30000;
+    this.circuitBreakerThreshold = options.circuitBreakerThreshold ?? 5;
+    this.circuitBreakerCooldownMs = options.circuitBreakerCooldownMs ?? 15000;

    this.axiosClient = axios.create({
      baseURL: options.baseUrl,
@@ -113,7 +112,9 @@ export class AiEngineClient {
    };
  }

-  private async request<T>(config: AiEngineRequestConfig): Promise<AxiosResponse<T>> {
+  private async request<T>(
+    config: AiEngineRequestConfig,
+  ): Promise<AxiosResponse<T>> {
    this.ensureCircuitAvailable();

    const retries = this.resolveRetryCount(config);
@@ -133,7 +134,13 @@ export class AiEngineClient {
        const shouldRetry = attempt < retries && this.isRetriableError(error);

        if (!shouldRetry) {
+          // Only register circuit breaker failure for server/network errors, not client errors (4xx)
+          if (this.isServerError(error)) {
            this.registerFailure(error);
+          } else {
+            // It's a successful contact with the engine (e.g. 404, 422), so reset failures
+            this.resetFailures();
+          }
          throw this.toRequestError(error);
        }

@@ -162,7 +169,8 @@ export class AiEngineClient {
    }

    const remainingCooldown =
-      this.circuitBreakerCooldownMs - (Date.now() - (this.circuitOpenedAt ?? 0));
+      this.circuitBreakerCooldownMs -
+      (Date.now() - (this.circuitOpenedAt ?? 0));

    if (remainingCooldown > 0) {
      throw new AiEngineRequestError("AI engine circuit breaker is open", {
@@ -175,8 +183,11 @@ export class AiEngineClient {
    }

    this.logger.warn(
-      `[${this.serviceName}] AI circuit breaker cooldown elapsed, allowing a recovery attempt`,
+      `[${this.serviceName}] AI circuit breaker cooldown elapsed, allowing a recovery attempt (resetting failures from ${this.consecutiveFailures})`,
    );
+    // Half-open state: reset failures so a single retry failure doesn't
+    // immediately re-open the circuit at threshold+1
+    this.consecutiveFailures = 0;
    this.circuitOpenedAt = null;
  }

@@ -218,6 +229,27 @@ export class AiEngineClient {
    return status >= 500 || status === 429 || error.code === "ECONNABORTED";
  }

+  private isServerError(error: unknown): boolean {
+    if (!axios.isAxiosError(error)) {
+      return true; // Not an axios error, assume internal/network error
+    }
+    if (!error.response) {
+      return true; // Network error, timeout, etc.
+    }
+    // Only count infrastructure-level errors toward circuit breaker:
+    // - No response (network failure) → already handled above
+    // - Timeout (ECONNABORTED) → infrastructure
+    // - 429 (rate limit) → infrastructure
+    // - 502/503/504 (proxy/gateway errors) → infrastructure
+    // Do NOT count 500 (app-level crash in AI Engine) — it may be
+    // match-specific and shouldn't block all other matches.
+    if (error.code === "ECONNABORTED") {
+      return true;
+    }
+    const status = error.response.status;
+    return status === 429 || status === 502 || status === 503 || status === 504;
+  }
+
  private toRequestError(error: unknown): AiEngineRequestError {
    if (error instanceof AiEngineRequestError) {
      return error;
@@ -14,10 +14,7 @@ function extractDateParts(date: Date, timeZone: string) {
  return { year, month, day };
 }

-export function getDateStringInTimeZone(
-  date: Date,
-  timeZone: string,
-): string {
+export function getDateStringInTimeZone(date: Date, timeZone: string): string {
  const { year, month, day } = extractDateParts(date, timeZone);
  return `${year}-${String(month).padStart(2, "0")}-${String(day).padStart(2, "0")}`;
 }
@@ -22,7 +22,7 @@ export const envSchema = z.object({
  // Database
  DATABASE_URL: z.string().url(),
  // AI Engine
-  AI_ENGINE_URL: z.string().url().default("http://localhost:8000"),
+  AI_ENGINE_URL: z.string().url(),
  AI_ENGINE_MODE: z.enum(["v28-pro-max", "dual"]).default("v28-pro-max"),

  // JWT
@@ -56,13 +56,31 @@ export const envSchema = z.object({
    .string()
    .transform((val) => val === "true")
    .default("false" as any),
+  SOCIAL_POSTER_SPORTS: z.string().default("football,basketball"),
+  SOCIAL_POSTER_WINDOW_MIN: z.coerce.number().default(25),
+  SOCIAL_POSTER_WINDOW_MAX: z.coerce.number().default(45),
+  SOCIAL_POSTER_OLLAMA_MODEL: z.string().optional(),
+  APP_BASE_URL: z.string().url().optional(),
  TWITTER_API_KEY: z.string().optional(),
  TWITTER_API_SECRET: z.string().optional(),
  TWITTER_ACCESS_TOKEN: z.string().optional(),
  TWITTER_ACCESS_SECRET: z.string().optional(),
+  META_GRAPH_API_VERSION: z.string().default("v25.0"),
  META_PAGE_ACCESS_TOKEN: z.string().optional(),
  META_PAGE_ID: z.string().optional(),
  META_IG_USER_ID: z.string().optional(),
+  OLLAMA_BASE_URL: z.string().url().optional(),
+  OLLAMA_MODEL: z.string().optional(),
+
+  // Paddle (Subscription Billing)
+  PADDLE_API_KEY: z.string().optional(),
+  PADDLE_WEBHOOK_SECRET: z.string().optional(),
+  PADDLE_CLIENT_TOKEN: z.string().optional(),
+  PADDLE_ENVIRONMENT: z.enum(["sandbox", "production"]).default("sandbox"),
+  PADDLE_PLUS_MONTHLY_PRICE_ID: z.string().optional(),
+  PADDLE_PLUS_YEARLY_PRICE_ID: z.string().optional(),
+  PADDLE_PREMIUM_MONTHLY_PRICE_ID: z.string().optional(),
+  PADDLE_PREMIUM_YEARLY_PRICE_ID: z.string().optional(),

  // Optional Features
  ENABLE_MAIL: booleanString,
@@ -9,5 +9,12 @@
  "serverError": "An unexpected error occurred",
  "unauthorized": "You are not authorized to perform this action",
  "forbidden": "Access denied",
-  "badRequest": "Invalid request"
+  "badRequest": "Bad request",
+  "SUCCESS_USER_ROLE_UPDATED": "User role updated",
+  "SUCCESS_USER_SUBSCRIPTION_UPDATED": "User subscription updated",
+  "SUCCESS_USER_DELETED": "User deleted",
+  "SUCCESS_USER_STATUS_UPDATED": "User status updated",
+  "SUCCESS_SETTING_UPDATED": "Setting updated",
+  "SUCCESS_ALL_LIMITS_RESET": "All usage limits reset",
+  "SUCCESS_USER_LIMITS_RESET": "User usage limits reset"
 }
@@ -10,5 +10,13 @@
  "TENANT_NOT_FOUND": "Tenant not found",
  "VALIDATION_FAILED": "Validation failed",
  "INTERNAL_ERROR": "An internal error occurred, please try again later",
-  "AUTH_REQUIRED": "Authentication required, please provide a valid token"
+  "AUTH_REQUIRED": "Authentication required, please provide a valid token",
+  "USAGE_LIMIT_EXCEEDED": "You have exceeded your daily usage limit. Please upgrade your plan.",
+  "ANALYSIS_LIMIT_EXCEEDED": "You have exceeded your daily analysis limit. Please upgrade your plan.",
+  "COUPON_LIMIT_EXCEEDED": "You have exceeded your daily coupon limit. Please upgrade your plan.",
+  "INVALID_PLAN_TYPE": "Invalid plan type. Must be free, plus, or premium.",
+  "MATCH_NOT_FOUND": "Match not found",
+  "PREDICTION_GENERATION_FAILED": "Failed to generate prediction",
+  "SMART_COUPON_GENERATION_FAILED": "Failed to generate Smart Coupon",
+  "ANALYSIS_FAILED": "None of the provided matches could be analyzed successfully"
 }
@@ -9,5 +9,12 @@
  "serverError": "Beklenmeyen bir hata oluştu",
  "unauthorized": "Bu işlemi yapmaya yetkiniz yok",
  "forbidden": "Erişim reddedildi",
-  "badRequest": "Geçersiz istek"
+  "badRequest": "Geçersiz istek",
+  "SUCCESS_USER_ROLE_UPDATED": "Kullanıcı rolü güncellendi",
+  "SUCCESS_USER_SUBSCRIPTION_UPDATED": "Kullanıcı aboneliği güncellendi",
+  "SUCCESS_USER_DELETED": "Kullanıcı başarıyla silindi",
+  "SUCCESS_USER_STATUS_UPDATED": "Kullanıcı durumu güncellendi",
+  "SUCCESS_SETTING_UPDATED": "Ayar güncellendi",
+  "SUCCESS_ALL_LIMITS_RESET": "Tüm kullanıcı limitleri sıfırlandı",
+  "SUCCESS_USER_LIMITS_RESET": "Kullanıcı limitleri sıfırlandı"
 }
@@ -10,5 +10,13 @@
  "TENANT_NOT_FOUND": "Kiracı bulunamadı",
  "VALIDATION_FAILED": "Doğrulama başarısız",
  "INTERNAL_ERROR": "Bir iç hata oluştu, lütfen daha sonra tekrar deneyin",
-  "AUTH_REQUIRED": "Kimlik doğrulama gerekli, lütfen geçerli bir token sağlayın"
+  "AUTH_REQUIRED": "Kimlik doğrulama gerekli, lütfen geçerli bir token sağlayın",
+  "USAGE_LIMIT_EXCEEDED": "Günlük kullanım limitinizi doldurdunuz. Lütfen paketinizi yükseltin.",
+  "ANALYSIS_LIMIT_EXCEEDED": "Günlük analiz limitinizi doldurdunuz. Lütfen paketinizi yükseltin.",
+  "COUPON_LIMIT_EXCEEDED": "Günlük kupon limitinizi doldurdunuz. Lütfen paketinizi yükseltin.",
+  "INVALID_PLAN_TYPE": "Geçersiz paket tipi. (free, plus, premium olmalıdır)",
+  "MATCH_NOT_FOUND": "Maç bulunamadı",
+  "PREDICTION_GENERATION_FAILED": "Tahmin oluşturulamadı",
+  "SMART_COUPON_GENERATION_FAILED": "Akıllı kupon oluşturulamadı",
+  "ANALYSIS_FAILED": "Sağlanan maçların hiçbiri başarıyla analiz edilemedi"
 }
@@ -51,6 +51,7 @@ async function bootstrap() {
            "https://suggestbet.bilgich.com",
            "https://iddaai.com",
            "https://www.iddaai.com",
+            "http://localhost:6195",
          ]
        : true,
    credentials: true,
@@ -10,6 +10,7 @@ import {
  UseInterceptors,
  Inject,
  NotFoundException,
+  BadRequestException,
 } from "@nestjs/common";
 import {
  CacheInterceptor,
@@ -18,7 +19,12 @@ import {
  CACHE_MANAGER,
 } from "@nestjs/cache-manager";
 import * as cacheManager from "cache-manager";
-import { ApiTags, ApiBearerAuth, ApiOperation } from "@nestjs/swagger";
+import {
+  ApiTags,
+  ApiBearerAuth,
+  ApiOperation,
+  ApiResponse as SwaggerResponse,
+} from "@nestjs/swagger";
 import { Roles } from "../../common/decorators";
 import { PrismaService } from "../../database/prisma.service";
 import { PaginationDto } from "../../common/dto/pagination.dto";
@@ -31,6 +37,8 @@ import {
 import { plainToInstance } from "class-transformer";
 import { UserResponseDto } from "../users/dto/user.dto";
 import { UserRole } from "@prisma/client";
+import { SubscriptionsService } from "../subscriptions/subscriptions.service";
+import { PlanType } from "../subscriptions/dto/subscription.dto";

@ApiTags("Admin")
@ApiBearerAuth()
@@ -40,12 +48,14 @@ export class AdminController {
  constructor(
    private readonly prisma: PrismaService,
    @Inject(CACHE_MANAGER) private cacheManager: cacheManager.Cache,
+    private readonly subscriptionsService: SubscriptionsService,
  ) {}

  // ================== Users Management ==================

  @Get("users")
  @ApiOperation({ summary: "Get all users (admin)" })
+  @SwaggerResponse({ status: 200, type: [UserResponseDto] })
  async getAllUsers(
    @Query() pagination: PaginationDto,
  ): Promise<ApiResponse<PaginatedData<UserResponseDto>>> {
@@ -75,6 +85,7 @@ export class AdminController {

  @Get("users/:id")
  @ApiOperation({ summary: "Get user by ID" })
+  @SwaggerResponse({ status: 200, type: UserResponseDto })
  async getUserById(
    @Param("id") id: string,
  ): Promise<ApiResponse<UserResponseDto>> {
@@ -98,6 +109,7 @@ export class AdminController {

  @Put("users/:id/toggle-active")
  @ApiOperation({ summary: "Toggle user active status" })
+  @SwaggerResponse({ status: 200, type: UserResponseDto })
  async toggleUserActive(
    @Param("id") id: string,
  ): Promise<ApiResponse<UserResponseDto>> {
@@ -114,12 +126,13 @@ export class AdminController {

    return createSuccessResponse(
      plainToInstance(UserResponseDto, updated),
-      "User status updated",
+      "common.SUCCESS_USER_STATUS_UPDATED",
    );
  }

  @Put("users/:id/role")
  @ApiOperation({ summary: "Update user role" })
+  @SwaggerResponse({ status: 200, type: UserResponseDto })
  async updateUserRole(
    @Param("id") id: string,
    @Body() data: { role: UserRole },
@@ -131,41 +144,19 @@ export class AdminController {

    return createSuccessResponse(
      plainToInstance(UserResponseDto, user),
-      "User role updated",
-    );
-  }
-
-  @Put("users/:id/subscription")
-  @ApiOperation({ summary: "Update user subscription" })
-  async updateUserSubscription(
-    @Param("id") id: string,
-    @Body()
-    data: { subscriptionStatus: string; subscriptionExpiresAt?: string },
-  ): Promise<ApiResponse<UserResponseDto>> {
-    const user = await this.prisma.user.update({
-      where: { id },
-      data: {
-        subscriptionStatus: data.subscriptionStatus as any,
-        subscriptionExpiresAt: data.subscriptionExpiresAt
-          ? new Date(data.subscriptionExpiresAt)
-          : null,
-      },
-    });
-
-    return createSuccessResponse(
-      plainToInstance(UserResponseDto, user),
-      "User subscription updated",
+      "common.SUCCESS_USER_ROLE_UPDATED",
    );
  }

  @Delete("users/:id")
  @ApiOperation({ summary: "Soft delete a user" })
+  @SwaggerResponse({ status: 200, description: "User deleted" })
  async deleteUser(@Param("id") id: string): Promise<ApiResponse<null>> {
    await this.prisma.user.update({
      where: { id },
      data: { deletedAt: new Date() },
    });
-    return createSuccessResponse(null, "User deleted");
+    return createSuccessResponse(null, "common.SUCCESS_USER_DELETED");
  }

  // ================== App Settings ==================
@@ -175,6 +166,10 @@ export class AdminController {
  @CacheKey("app_settings")
  @CacheTTL(60 * 1000)
  @ApiOperation({ summary: "Get all app settings" })
+  @SwaggerResponse({
+    status: 200,
+    schema: { type: "object", additionalProperties: { type: "string" } },
+  })
  async getAllSettings(): Promise<ApiResponse<Record<string, string>>> {
    const settings = await this.prisma.appSetting.findMany();
    const settingsMap: Record<string, string> = {};
@@ -186,6 +181,13 @@ export class AdminController {

  @Put("settings/:key")
  @ApiOperation({ summary: "Update an app setting" })
+  @SwaggerResponse({
+    status: 200,
+    schema: {
+      type: "object",
+      properties: { key: { type: "string" }, value: { type: "string" } },
+    },
+  })
  async updateSetting(
    @Param("key") key: string,
    @Body() data: { value: string },
@@ -198,7 +200,7 @@ export class AdminController {
    await this.cacheManager.del("app_settings");
    return createSuccessResponse(
      { key: setting.key, value: setting.value || "" },
-      "Setting updated",
+      "common.SUCCESS_SETTING_UPDATED",
    );
  }

@@ -206,6 +208,10 @@ export class AdminController {

  @Get("usage-limits")
  @ApiOperation({ summary: "Get all usage limits" })
+  @SwaggerResponse({
+    status: 200,
+    schema: { type: "array", items: { type: "object" } },
+  })
  async getAllUsageLimits(@Query() pagination: PaginationDto) {
    const { skip, take } = pagination;

@@ -233,6 +239,10 @@ export class AdminController {

  @Post("usage-limits/reset-all")
  @ApiOperation({ summary: "Reset all usage limits" })
+  @SwaggerResponse({
+    status: 200,
+    schema: { type: "object", properties: { count: { type: "number" } } },
+  })
  async resetAllUsageLimits(): Promise<ApiResponse<{ count: number }>> {
    const result = await this.prisma.usageLimit.updateMany({
      data: {
@@ -244,7 +254,57 @@ export class AdminController {

    return createSuccessResponse(
      { count: result.count },
-      "All usage limits reset",
+      "common.SUCCESS_ALL_LIMITS_RESET",
+    );
+  }
+
+  @Post("usage-limits/reset/:userId")
+  @ApiOperation({ summary: "Reset usage limits for a single user" })
+  @SwaggerResponse({ status: 200 })
+  async resetUserUsageLimits(
+    @Param("userId") userId: string,
+  ): Promise<ApiResponse<null>> {
+    const user = await this.prisma.user.findUnique({ where: { id: userId } });
+    if (!user) throw new NotFoundException("USER_NOT_FOUND");
+
+    await this.prisma.usageLimit.update({
+      where: { userId },
+      data: {
+        analysisCount: 0,
+        couponCount: 0,
+        lastResetDate: new Date(),
+      },
+    });
+
+    return createSuccessResponse(null, "common.SUCCESS_USER_LIMITS_RESET");
+  }
+
+  @Put("users/:userId/subscription")
+  @ApiOperation({ summary: "Update a user's subscription tier" })
+  @SwaggerResponse({ status: 200 })
+  async updateUserSubscription(
+    @Param("userId") userId: string,
+    @Body() data: { plan: string },
+  ): Promise<ApiResponse<null>> {
+    const user = await this.prisma.user.findUnique({ where: { id: userId } });
+    if (!user) throw new NotFoundException("USER_NOT_FOUND");
+
+    const validPlans = [PlanType.FREE, PlanType.PLUS, PlanType.PREMIUM];
+    const newPlan = data.plan as PlanType;
+    if (!validPlans.includes(newPlan)) {
+      throw new BadRequestException("INVALID_PLAN_TYPE");
+    }
+
+    await this.prisma.user.update({
+      where: { id: userId },
+      data: { subscriptionStatus: newPlan },
+    });
+
+    await this.subscriptionsService.syncLimitsWithPlan(userId, newPlan);
+
+    return createSuccessResponse(
+      null,
+      "common.SUCCESS_USER_SUBSCRIPTION_UPDATED",
    );
  }

@@ -252,6 +312,7 @@ export class AdminController {

  @Get("analytics/overview")
  @ApiOperation({ summary: "Get system analytics overview" })
+  @SwaggerResponse({ status: 200, schema: { type: "object" } })
  async getAnalyticsOverview() {
    const [
      totalUsers,
@@ -263,7 +324,9 @@ export class AdminController {
    ] = await Promise.all([
      this.prisma.user.count(),
      this.prisma.user.count({ where: { isActive: true } }),
-      this.prisma.user.count({ where: { subscriptionStatus: "active" } }),
+      this.prisma.user.count({
+        where: { subscriptionStatus: { in: ["plus", "premium"] } },
+      }),
      this.prisma.match.count(),
      this.prisma.prediction.count(),
      this.prisma.userCoupon.count(),
@@ -1,7 +1,9 @@
 import { Module } from "@nestjs/common";
 import { AdminController } from "./admin.controller";
+import { SubscriptionsModule } from "../subscriptions/subscriptions.module";

@Module({
+  imports: [SubscriptionsModule],
  controllers: [AdminController],
 })
 export class AdminModule {}
@@ -0,0 +1,20 @@
+import { All, Body, Controller, Req } from "@nestjs/common";
+import type { Request } from "express";
+
+import { AiProxyService } from "./ai-proxy.service";
+
+@Controller("ai-engine")
+export class AiProxyController {
+  constructor(private readonly aiProxyService: AiProxyService) {}
+
+  @All("*path")
+  proxy(@Req() request: Request, @Body() body: unknown) {
+    return this.aiProxyService.proxy({
+      method: request.method,
+      originalUrl: request.originalUrl,
+      query: request.query as Record<string, unknown>,
+      body,
+      acceptLanguage: request.headers["accept-language"],
+    });
+  }
+}
@@ -0,0 +1,17 @@
+import { Module } from "@nestjs/common";
+import { HttpModule } from "@nestjs/axios";
+
+import { AiProxyController } from "./ai-proxy.controller";
+import { AiProxyService } from "./ai-proxy.service";
+
+@Module({
+  imports: [
+    HttpModule.register({
+      timeout: 45000,
+      maxRedirects: 0,
+    }),
+  ],
+  controllers: [AiProxyController],
+  providers: [AiProxyService],
+})
+export class AiProxyModule {}
@@ -0,0 +1,98 @@
+import {
+  BadGatewayException,
+  ForbiddenException,
+  Injectable,
+} from "@nestjs/common";
+import { HttpService } from "@nestjs/axios";
+import { ConfigService } from "@nestjs/config";
+import { AxiosError, Method } from "axios";
+
+interface ProxyRequest {
+  method: string;
+  originalUrl: string;
+  query: Record<string, unknown>;
+  body: unknown;
+  acceptLanguage?: string | string[];
+}
+
+interface AllowedRoute {
+  method: Method;
+  pattern: RegExp;
+}
+
+const ALLOWED_AI_ROUTES: AllowedRoute[] = [
+  { method: "GET", pattern: /^\/$/ },
+  { method: "GET", pattern: /^\/health$/ },
+  { method: "POST", pattern: /^\/v20plus\/analyze\/[^/]+$/ },
+  { method: "GET", pattern: /^\/v20plus\/analyze-htms\/[^/]+$/ },
+  { method: "GET", pattern: /^\/v20plus\/analyze-htft\/[^/]+$/ },
+  { method: "POST", pattern: /^\/v20plus\/coupon$/ },
+  { method: "GET", pattern: /^\/v20plus\/daily-banker$/ },
+  { method: "GET", pattern: /^\/v20plus\/reversal-watchlist$/ },
+  { method: "GET", pattern: /^\/v2\/health$/ },
+  { method: "POST", pattern: /^\/v2\/analyze\/[^/]+$/ },
+];
+
+@Injectable()
+export class AiProxyService {
+  constructor(
+    private readonly httpService: HttpService,
+    private readonly configService: ConfigService,
+  ) {}
+
+  async proxy(request: ProxyRequest) {
+    const path = this.extractProxyPath(request.originalUrl);
+    const method = request.method.toUpperCase() as Method;
+
+    if (!this.isAllowed(method, path)) {
+      throw new ForbiddenException("AI_PROXY_ROUTE_NOT_ALLOWED");
+    }
+
+    const baseUrl = this.configService.getOrThrow<string>("AI_ENGINE_URL");
+    const targetUrl = new URL(path, baseUrl);
+
+    try {
+      const response = await this.httpService.axiosRef.request({
+        url: targetUrl.toString(),
+        method,
+        params: request.query,
+        data: request.body,
+        headers: {
+          "content-type": "application/json",
+          "accept-language": Array.isArray(request.acceptLanguage)
+            ? request.acceptLanguage[0]
+            : request.acceptLanguage,
+        },
+        timeout: 45000,
+        maxRedirects: 0,
+        validateStatus: (status) => status >= 200 && status < 500,
+      });
+
+      return response.data;
+    } catch (error) {
+      const axiosError = error as AxiosError;
+      throw new BadGatewayException({
+        message: "AI_PROXY_UPSTREAM_FAILED",
+        status: axiosError.response?.status,
+      });
+    }
+  }
+
+  private extractProxyPath(originalUrl: string): string {
+    const withoutQuery = originalUrl.split("?")[0] || "";
+    const marker = "/ai-engine";
+    const markerIndex = withoutQuery.indexOf(marker);
+    if (markerIndex === -1) {
+      return "/";
+    }
+
+    const path = withoutQuery.slice(markerIndex + marker.length);
+    return path.length === 0 ? "/" : path;
+  }
+
+  private isAllowed(method: Method, path: string): boolean {
+    return ALLOWED_AI_ROUTES.some(
+      (route) => route.method === method && route.pattern.test(path),
+    );
+  }
+}
@@ -30,7 +30,18 @@ export class AnalysisController {
  @Post("analyze-matches")
  @HttpCode(HttpStatus.OK)
  @ApiOperation({ summary: "Analyze multiple matches for coupon" })
-  @ApiResponse({ status: 200, description: "Analysis successful" })
+  @ApiResponse({
+    status: 200,
+    description: "Analysis successful",
+    schema: {
+      type: "object",
+      properties: {
+        success: { type: "boolean" },
+        data: { type: "object" },
+        message: { type: "string" },
+      },
+    },
+  })
  @ApiResponse({ status: 400, description: "Invalid input" })
  @ApiResponse({ status: 429, description: "Usage limit exceeded" })
  async analyzeMatches(
@@ -48,7 +59,7 @@ export class AnalysisController {
    );

    if (!canProceed) {
-      throw new ForbiddenException("You have exceeded your daily usage limit");
+      throw new ForbiddenException("USAGE_LIMIT_EXCEEDED");
    }

    // Run analysis
@@ -57,7 +68,7 @@ export class AnalysisController {
    if (!result) {
      return {
        success: false,
-        message: "None of the provided matches could be analyzed successfully",
+        message: "ANALYSIS_FAILED",
      };
    }

@@ -92,7 +103,17 @@ export class AnalysisController {
   */
  @Get("history")
  @ApiOperation({ summary: "Get analysis history" })
-  @ApiResponse({ status: 200, description: "History retrieved" })
+  @ApiResponse({
+    status: 200,
+    description: "History retrieved",
+    schema: {
+      type: "object",
+      properties: {
+        success: { type: "boolean" },
+        data: { type: "array", items: { type: "object" } },
+      },
+    },
+  })
  async getHistory(@CurrentUser() user: any) {
    const history = await this.analysisService.getAnalysisHistory(user.id);
    return { success: true, data: history };
@@ -84,7 +84,7 @@ export class AnalysisService {
  }

  /**
-   * Check user usage limit
+   * Check user usage limit (plan-aware via UsageLimit table)
   */
  async checkUsageLimit(
    userId: string,
@@ -96,24 +96,23 @@ export class AnalysisService {
    });

    if (!usageLimit) {
-      // Create default limit
+      // Create default limit with free-tier maxes
      await this.prisma.usageLimit.create({
        data: {
          userId,
          analysisCount: 0,
          couponCount: 0,
+          maxAnalyses: 3,
+          maxCoupons: 1,
          lastResetDate: new Date(),
        },
      });
      return true;
    }

-    // Check limits (default: 10 analyses, 3 coupons per day)
-    const user = await this.prisma.user.findUnique({ where: { id: userId } });
-    const isPremium = user?.subscriptionStatus === "active";
-
-    const maxAnalyses = isPremium ? 50 : 10;
-    const maxCoupons = isPremium ? 10 : 3;
+    // Use plan-aware limits from DB (set by SubscriptionsService.syncLimitsWithPlan)
+    const maxAnalyses = usageLimit.maxAnalyses ?? 3;
+    const maxCoupons = usageLimit.maxCoupons ?? 1;

    if (isCoupon) {
      return usageLimit.couponCount < maxCoupons;
@@ -67,7 +67,17 @@ export class AuthController {
  @Post("logout")
  @HttpCode(200)
  @ApiOperation({ summary: "Logout and invalidate refresh token" })
-  @ApiOkResponse({ description: "Logout successful" })
+  @ApiOkResponse({
+    description: "Logout successful",
+    schema: {
+      type: "object",
+      properties: {
+        success: { type: "boolean" },
+        message: { type: "string" },
+        data: { type: "null" },
+      },
+    },
+  })
  async logout(
    @Body() dto: RefreshTokenDto,
    @I18n() i18n: I18nContext,
@@ -94,11 +94,8 @@ export class RolesGuard implements CanActivate {
      return false;
    }

-    const normalizedUserRoles = (user.roles?.length
-      ? user.roles
-      : user.role
-        ? [user.role]
-        : []
+    const normalizedUserRoles = (
+      user.roles?.length ? user.roles : user.role ? [user.role] : []
    ).map((role) => normalizeRole(role));

    const normalizedRequiredRoles = requiredRoles.map((role) =>
@@ -53,7 +53,18 @@ export class CouponsController {
  @Public()
  @HttpCode(HttpStatus.OK)
  @ApiOperation({ summary: "Analyze single match with V20 model" })
-  @ApiResponse({ status: 200, description: "Match analysis" })
+  @ApiResponse({
+    status: 200,
+    description: "Match analysis",
+    schema: {
+      type: "object",
+      properties: {
+        success: { type: "boolean" },
+        data: { type: "object" },
+        message: { type: "string" },
+      },
+    },
+  })
  async analyzeMatch(@Body() dto: AnalyzeMatchDto) {
    const analysis = await this.smartCouponService.analyzeMatch(dto.matchId);
    if (!analysis) {
@@ -99,6 +110,18 @@ export class CouponsController {
  @ApiOperation({
    summary: "Generate a high-confidence banko combo (2 matches)",
  })
+  @ApiResponse({
+    status: 200,
+    description: "Daily banko coupon",
+    schema: {
+      type: "object",
+      properties: {
+        success: { type: "boolean" },
+        data: { type: "object" },
+        message: { type: "string" },
+      },
+    },
+  })
  async getDailyBanko(@Body() dto: DailyBankoDto) {
    // If no match IDs provided, fetch from system (top 50 upcoming)
    let candidateMatches = dto.matchIds || [];
@@ -146,7 +169,18 @@ export class CouponsController {
  @Public()
  @HttpCode(HttpStatus.OK)
  @ApiOperation({ summary: "Suggest Smart Coupon" })
-  @ApiResponse({ status: 200, description: "Smart Coupon generated" })
+  @ApiResponse({
+    status: 200,
+    description: "Smart Coupon generated",
+    schema: {
+      type: "object",
+      properties: {
+        success: { type: "boolean" },
+        data: { type: "object" },
+        message: { type: "string" },
+      },
+    },
+  })
  async suggestCoupon(@Body() dto: SuggestCouponDto) {
    // If no match IDs provided, fetch from system (top 50 upcoming)
    let candidateMatches = dto.matchIds || [];
@@ -237,6 +271,18 @@ export class CouponsController {
  @ApiBearerAuth()
  @HttpCode(HttpStatus.CREATED)
  @ApiOperation({ summary: "Create and save a user coupon" })
+  @ApiResponse({
+    status: 201,
+    description: "Coupon created",
+    schema: {
+      type: "object",
+      properties: {
+        success: { type: "boolean" },
+        data: { type: "object" },
+        message: { type: "string" },
+      },
+    },
+  })
  async createCoupon(@Body() dto: CreateCouponDto, @Req() req: any) {
    // req.user is populated by JwtAuthGuard
    const coupon = await this.userCouponService.createCoupon(req.user, dto);
@@ -251,6 +297,18 @@ export class CouponsController {
  @UseGuards(JwtAuthGuard)
  @ApiBearerAuth()
  @ApiOperation({ summary: "Get user betting statistics" })
+  @ApiResponse({
+    status: 200,
+    description: "User statistics",
+    schema: {
+      type: "object",
+      properties: {
+        success: { type: "boolean" },
+        data: { type: "object" },
+        message: { type: "string" },
+      },
+    },
+  })
  async getUserStats(@Req() req: any) {
    const stats = await this.userCouponService.getUserStatistics(req.user.id);
    return { success: true, data: stats };
@@ -263,7 +321,18 @@ export class CouponsController {
  @Get("history")
  @ApiBearerAuth()
  @ApiOperation({ summary: "Get coupon history" })
-  @ApiResponse({ status: 200, description: "History retrieved" })
+  @ApiResponse({
+    status: 200,
+    description: "History retrieved",
+    schema: {
+      type: "object",
+      properties: {
+        success: { type: "boolean" },
+        data: { type: "array", items: { type: "object" } },
+        message: { type: "string" },
+      },
+    },
+  })
  async getHistory(@Query("limit") limit?: string) {
    // eslint-disable-next-line @typescript-eslint/await-thenable
    const results = await this.couponsService.getCouponHistory(
@@ -25,4 +25,3 @@ import { MatchesModule } from "../matches/matches.module";
  ],
 })
 export class CouponsModule {}
-
@@ -109,8 +109,7 @@ export class FrequencyCouponDto {
  minSignal?: number;

  @ApiPropertyOptional({
-    description:
-      "Filter markets: OU1.5, OU2.5, OU3.5, BTTS, MS (default: all)",
+    description: "Filter markets: OU1.5, OU2.5, OU3.5, BTTS, MS (default: all)",
    example: ["OU2.5", "BTTS"],
  })
  @IsOptional()
@@ -108,8 +108,7 @@ export class FrequencyEngineService {
    venue: "home" | "away",
    oddsBand: string,
  ): Promise<TeamFrequencyRow | null> {
-    const venueColumn =
-      venue === "home" ? "m.home_team_id" : "m.away_team_id";
+    const venueColumn = venue === "home" ? "m.home_team_id" : "m.away_team_id";
    const oddsSelection = venue === "home" ? "'1'" : "'2'";
    const bandRange = this.parseBandRange(oddsBand);

@@ -191,7 +190,7 @@ export class FrequencyEngineService {

    // OU 1.5 OVER
    const ou15Combined = (homeFreq.ou15_rate + awayFreq.ou15_rate) / 2;
-    if (ou15Combined >= 0.80) {
+    if (ou15Combined >= 0.8) {
      signals.push({
        market: "OU1.5_OVER",
        pick: "1.5 UST",
@@ -212,7 +211,7 @@ export class FrequencyEngineService {

    // OU 2.5 OVER
    const ou25Combined = (homeFreq.ou25_rate + awayFreq.ou25_rate) / 2;
-    if (ou25Combined >= 0.60) {
+    if (ou25Combined >= 0.6) {
      signals.push({
        market: "OU2.5_OVER",
        pick: "2.5 UST",
@@ -233,7 +232,7 @@ export class FrequencyEngineService {

    // OU 3.5 OVER
    const ou35Combined = (homeFreq.ou35_rate + awayFreq.ou35_rate) / 2;
-    if (ou35Combined >= 0.50) {
+    if (ou35Combined >= 0.5) {
      signals.push({
        market: "OU3.5_OVER",
        pick: "3.5 UST",
@@ -254,7 +253,7 @@ export class FrequencyEngineService {

    // BTTS YES
    const bttsCombined = (homeFreq.btts_rate + awayFreq.btts_rate) / 2;
-    if (bttsCombined >= 0.60) {
+    if (bttsCombined >= 0.6) {
      signals.push({
        market: "BTTS_YES",
        pick: "KG VAR",
@@ -299,7 +298,7 @@ export class FrequencyEngineService {
    const hwCombined = (homeFreq.win_rate + awayFreq.win_rate) / 2;
    // awayFreq.win_rate aslında deplasman takımının KAYBETme oranı
    // (away takımı o bandda maçları kazanma değil, kaybetme olarak bak)
-    if (hwCombined >= 0.70 && homeOdds > 1.10 && homeOdds < 3.50) {
+    if (hwCombined >= 0.7 && homeOdds > 1.1 && homeOdds < 3.5) {
      signals.push({
        market: "MS_HOME",
        pick: "MS 1",
@@ -411,9 +410,7 @@ export class FrequencyEngineService {
  /**
   * Lig bazlı gol profili.
   */
-  async getLeagueProfile(
-    leagueId: string,
-  ): Promise<LeagueProfileRow | null> {
+  async getLeagueProfile(leagueId: string): Promise<LeagueProfileRow | null> {
    const rows = await this.prisma.$queryRawUnsafe<LeagueProfileRow[]>(
      `
      SELECT
@@ -521,9 +518,7 @@ export class FrequencyEngineService {
    return "6.00+";
  }

-  private parseBandRange(
-    band: string,
-  ): { min: number; max: number } | null {
+  private parseBandRange(band: string): { min: number; max: number } | null {
    const map: Record<string, { min: number; max: number }> = {
      "1.00-1.30": { min: 1.0, max: 1.3 },
      "1.30-1.50": { min: 1.3, max: 1.5 },
@@ -537,9 +532,7 @@ export class FrequencyEngineService {
    return map[band] || null;
  }

-  private calculateLeagueBonus(
-    profile: LeagueProfileRow | null,
-  ): number {
+  private calculateLeagueBonus(profile: LeagueProfileRow | null): number {
    if (!profile || profile.total_matches < 20) {
      return 0;
    }
@@ -154,7 +154,8 @@ export class SmartCouponService {
  async analyzeMatch(matchId: string): Promise<SingleMatchPredictionPackage> {
    let prediction: SingleMatchPredictionPackage;
    try {
-      const response = await this.aiEngineClient.post<SingleMatchPredictionPackage>(
+      const response =
+        await this.aiEngineClient.post<SingleMatchPredictionPackage>(
          `/v20plus/analyze/${matchId}`,
        );
      prediction = response.data;
@@ -264,7 +265,7 @@ export class SmartCouponService {
    markets?: string[];
  }): Promise<FrequencyCouponResult> {
    const maxMatches = options.maxMatches ?? 3;
-    const minSignal = options.minSignal ?? 0.70;
+    const minSignal = options.minSignal ?? 0.7;
    const allowedMarkets = options.markets?.map((m) => m.toUpperCase()) || null;

    this.logger.log(
@@ -167,7 +167,7 @@ export class FeederPersistenceService {

    const leagueId = this.safeString(league.id);
    if (leagueId) {
-      const logoUrl = `https://file.mackolikfeeds.com/areas/${leagueId}`;
+      const logoUrl = `https://file.mackolikfeeds.com/competitions/${leagueId}`;
      const localPath = `public/uploads/competitions/${leagueId}.png`;
      imageDownloads.push(
        ImageUtils.downloadImage(logoUrl, localPath)
@@ -853,22 +853,89 @@ export class FeederPersistenceService {
  }

  async getExistingMatchIds(matchIds: string[]): Promise<string[]> {
-    const matches = await this.prisma.match.findMany({
-      where: {
-        id: { in: matchIds },
-        AND: [
-          { oddCategories: { some: {} } },
-          {
-            OR: [
-              { footballTeamStats: { some: {} } },
-              { basketballTeamStats: { some: {} } },
-            ],
-          },
-        ],
-      },
-      select: { id: true },
-    });
-    return matches.map((m) => m.id);
+    if (matchIds.length === 0) return [];
+
+    // Use raw SQL for performance — Prisma's { some: {} } relation filters
+    // generate heavy correlated subqueries that hang on Raspberry Pi with
+    // large tables (15M+ odd_selections, 3M+ participations).
+    const result = await this.prisma.$queryRawUnsafe<Array<{ id: string }>>(
+      `
+      SELECT m.id
+      FROM matches m
+      WHERE m.id = ANY($1::text[])
+        AND EXISTS (SELECT 1 FROM odd_categories oc WHERE oc.match_id = m.id)
+        AND (
+          (m.sport = 'football'
+           AND EXISTS (SELECT 1 FROM football_team_stats fts WHERE fts.match_id = m.id)
+           AND (SELECT count(*) FROM match_player_participation mpp
+                WHERE mpp.match_id = m.id AND mpp.is_starting = true) >= 18)
+          OR
+          (m.sport = 'basketball'
+           AND EXISTS (SELECT 1 FROM basketball_team_stats bts WHERE bts.match_id = m.id)
+           AND EXISTS (SELECT 1 FROM basketball_player_stats bps WHERE bps.match_id = m.id))
+        )
+      `,
+      matchIds,
+    );
+
+    return result.map((r) => r.id);
+  }
+
+  /**
+   * For a list of match IDs that ALREADY exist in DB,
+   * returns which data scopes are missing per match.
+   * Only checks completed (Ended) football/basketball matches.
+   */
+  async getMissingScopes(matchIds: string[]): Promise<Map<string, string[]>> {
+    const result = new Map<string, string[]>();
+    if (matchIds.length === 0) return result;
+
+    // Use raw SQL for performance on Raspberry Pi.
+    // Note: state is 'postGame' in DB, not 'Ended'.
+    const rows = await this.prisma.$queryRawUnsafe<
+      Array<{
+        id: string;
+        sport: string;
+        fts_count: bigint;
+        pp_count: bigint;
+        bts_count: bigint;
+        bps_count: bigint;
+        oc_count: bigint;
+      }>
+    >(
+      `
+      SELECT m.id, m.sport::text,
+        (SELECT count(*) FROM football_team_stats fts WHERE fts.match_id = m.id) as fts_count,
+        (SELECT count(*) FROM match_player_participation mpp WHERE mpp.match_id = m.id) as pp_count,
+        (SELECT count(*) FROM basketball_team_stats bts WHERE bts.match_id = m.id) as bts_count,
+        (SELECT count(*) FROM basketball_player_stats bps WHERE bps.match_id = m.id) as bps_count,
+        (SELECT count(*) FROM odd_categories oc WHERE oc.match_id = m.id) as oc_count
+      FROM matches m
+      WHERE m.id = ANY($1::text[])
+        AND m.state = 'postGame'
+      `,
+      matchIds,
+    );
+
+    for (const m of rows) {
+      const missing: string[] = [];
+
+      if (m.sport === "football") {
+        if (Number(m.fts_count) === 0) missing.push("stats");
+        if (Number(m.pp_count) < 18) missing.push("lineups");
+      } else if (m.sport === "basketball") {
+        if (Number(m.bts_count) === 0) missing.push("stats");
+        if (Number(m.bps_count) === 0) missing.push("lineups");
+      }
+
+      if (Number(m.oc_count) === 0) missing.push("odds");
+
+      if (missing.length > 0) {
+        result.set(m.id, missing);
+      }
+    }
+
+    return result;
  }

  async hasOdds(matchId: string): Promise<boolean> {
@@ -43,6 +43,14 @@ export class FeederService {
  private readonly MAX_RETRIES = 50;
  private readonly DAILY_SYNC_TIME_ZONE = "Europe/Istanbul";

+  /** Watchdog heartbeat – updated on every match/date activity */
+  public lastActivityAt: number = Date.now();
+
+  /** Call this to bump the heartbeat */
+  private heartbeat(): void {
+    this.lastActivityAt = Date.now();
+  }
+
  constructor(
    private readonly scraperService: FeederScraperService,
    private readonly transformerService: FeederTransformerService,
@@ -168,7 +176,7 @@ export class FeederService {
    // writing to live_matches. Historical scan should only fill matches table.
    endDate.setDate(endDate.getDate() - 2);

-    const stateKey = `historical_scan_state_${sports.join("_")}${targetLeagueIds.length > 0 ? "_filtered" : ""}_desc`;
+    const stateKey = `historical_full_data_v2_state_${sports.join("_")}${targetLeagueIds.length > 0 ? "_filtered" : ""}_desc`;
    let currentDate: Date | null = null;

    // Resume from saved state
@@ -259,6 +267,7 @@ export class FeederService {
  ): Promise<void> {
    const { onlyCompletedMatches = false, refreshExistingMatches = false } =
      options;
+    this.heartbeat();
    this.logger.log(`[${sport}] 📅 Processing: ${dateString}`);

    try {
@@ -310,9 +319,20 @@ export class FeederService {
      const { startTs: targetDateStartTs, endTs: targetDateEndTs } =
        this.getDayBoundsForTimeZone(dateString, this.DAILY_SYNC_TIME_ZONE);

+      // DEBUG: Log sample mstUtc values vs target bounds to diagnose filtering
+      if (allMatches.length > 0) {
+        const sample = allMatches.slice(0, 3);
+        this.logger.warn(
+          `[${sport}] [${dateString}] DEBUG: bounds=[${targetDateStartTs}, ${targetDateEndTs}] ` +
+            `(${new Date(targetDateStartTs * 1000).toISOString()} - ${new Date(targetDateEndTs * 1000).toISOString()}) | ` +
+            `sampleMstUtc=[${sample.map((m) => `${m.mstUtc} (asSec=${new Date(m.mstUtc * 1000).toISOString()}, asMs=${new Date(m.mstUtc).toISOString()})`).join(", ")}]`,
+        );
+      }
+
      const dateFilteredMatches = allMatches.filter((m) => {
-        const matchTs = m.mstUtc;
-        return matchTs >= targetDateStartTs && matchTs <= targetDateEndTs;
+        // mstUtc is in milliseconds from API, bounds are in seconds
+        const matchTsSec = Math.floor(m.mstUtc / 1000);
+        return matchTsSec >= targetDateStartTs && matchTsSec <= targetDateEndTs;
      });

      const apiReturnedCount = allMatches.length;
@@ -365,21 +385,76 @@ export class FeederService {
        return;
      }

-      // 2. Filter out already existing matches to skip processing
+      // 2. Filter out already existing matches & patch incomplete ones
      const allIds = matchesToProcess.map((m) => m.id);
      const existingIds =
        await this.persistenceService.getExistingMatchIds(allIds);
      const totalCount = matchesToProcess.length;

+      // ── Patch incomplete existing matches ──────────────────────
+      // Find matches that ARE in DB but have missing data scopes
+      const allExistingInDb =
+        await this.persistenceService.getMissingScopes(allIds);
+      if (allExistingInDb.size > 0) {
+        this.logger.log(
+          `[${sport}] [${dateString}] 🔧 Found ${allExistingInDb.size} existing matches with missing data. Patching...`,
+        );
+
+        for (const [matchId, missingScopes] of allExistingInDb) {
+          const matchSummary = matchesToProcess.find((m) => m.id === matchId);
+          if (!matchSummary) continue;
+
+          for (const scope of missingScopes) {
+            await this.delay(500);
+            try {
+              const patchScope: "all" | "lineups" | "odds" =
+                scope === "odds"
+                  ? "odds"
+                  : scope === "lineups"
+                    ? "lineups"
+                    : "all";
+
+              const result = await this.processSingleMatch(
+                matchSummary,
+                data.competitions,
+                sport,
+                true, // force
+                patchScope,
+              );
+
+              this.heartbeat();
+              if (result.success) {
+                this.logger.log(
+                  `[${sport}] ✅ Patched [${scope}] for ${matchId} ${matchSummary.homeTeam.name} vs ${matchSummary.awayTeam.name}`,
+                );
+              } else {
+                this.logger.warn(
+                  `[${sport}] ⚠️ Patch [${scope}] failed for ${matchId}`,
+                );
+              }
+            } catch (e: any) {
+              this.logger.warn(
+                `[${sport}] ❌ Patch [${scope}] exception for ${matchId}: ${e.message}`,
+              );
+            }
+          }
+        }
+      }
+      // ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+      // Now filter out COMPLETE existing matches (skip them)
      if (!refreshExistingMatches && existingIds.length > 0) {
+        // Re-check after patching - which ones are now complete?
+        const updatedExistingIds =
+          await this.persistenceService.getExistingMatchIds(allIds);
        matchesToProcess = matchesToProcess.filter(
-          (m) => !existingIds.includes(m.id),
+          (m) => !updatedExistingIds.includes(m.id),
        );
      }

      if (matchesToProcess.length === 0) {
        this.logger.log(
-          `[${sport}] [${dateString}] All ${totalCount} matches already exist. Skipping...`,
+          `[${sport}] [${dateString}] All ${totalCount} matches processed (${existingIds.length} existed, ${allExistingInDb.size} patched). Done.`,
        );
        return;
      }
@@ -390,7 +465,7 @@ export class FeederService {
        );
      } else {
        this.logger.log(
-          `[${sport}] [${dateString}] Processing ${matchesToProcess.length}/${totalCount} matches (Skipped ${existingIds.length} existing)`,
+          `[${sport}] [${dateString}] Processing ${matchesToProcess.length}/${totalCount} new matches (${existingIds.length} existing, ${allExistingInDb.size} patched)`,
        );
      }

@@ -420,6 +495,7 @@ export class FeederService {
            refreshExistingMatches,
          );

+          this.heartbeat();
          if (result.success) {
            this.logger.log(
              `[${sport}] ✅ successful for ${match.id} ${match.homeTeam.name} vs ${match.awayTeam.name}`,
@@ -432,6 +508,7 @@ export class FeederService {
            failedMatches.push(match);
          }
        } catch (e: any) {
+          this.heartbeat();
          this.logger.warn(
            `[${sport}] Sequential error for ${match.id}: ${e.message}`,
          );
@@ -452,7 +529,7 @@ export class FeederService {
              match,
              data.competitions,
              sport,
-              refreshExistingMatches,
+              true, // FORCE: re-fetch incomplete data
            );
            if (result.success) {
              successCount++;
@@ -753,14 +830,12 @@ export class FeederService {
        }

        // Starting Formation & Substitutes (Always for lineups or all)
-        // V20 OPTIMIZATION: Disabled to speed up feeder and reduce 502 errors.
-        // We only use Team Stats for V20 model.
-        /*
-        if (scope === 'all' || scope === 'lineups') {
+        if (scope === "all" || scope === "lineups") {
          // Starting Formation
          try {
-            const formationData =
-              await this.scraperService.fetchStartingFormation(matchId);
+            const formationData = await fetchResilient("Formation", () =>
+              this.scraperService.fetchStartingFormation(matchId),
+            );
            if (formationData?.stats) {
              this.transformerService.processLineup(
                formationData.stats.home || [],
@@ -780,14 +855,15 @@ export class FeederService {
              );
            }
          } catch (e: any) {
-            if (e.message?.includes('502')) hasCriticalError = true;
+            if (e.message?.includes("502")) hasCriticalError = true;
            this.logger.warn(`[${matchId}] Formation failed: ${e.message}`);
          }

          // Substitutes
          try {
-            const subsData =
-              await this.scraperService.fetchSubstitutions(matchId);
+            const subsData = await fetchResilient("Subs", () =>
+              this.scraperService.fetchSubstitutions(matchId),
+            );
            if (subsData?.stats) {
              this.transformerService.processLineup(
                subsData.stats.home || [],
@@ -807,11 +883,10 @@ export class FeederService {
              );
            }
          } catch (e: any) {
-            if (e.message?.includes('502')) hasCriticalError = true;
+            if (e.message?.includes("502")) hasCriticalError = true;
            this.logger.warn(`[${matchId}] Subs failed: ${e.message}`);
          }
        }
-        */

        // Game Stats & Officials
        if (scope === "all") {
@@ -869,7 +944,37 @@ export class FeederService {
        }
      }

-      // 4. Persist to Database
+      // ── Pre-save completeness gate ──────────────────────────────
+      // If a 502 caused missing data, do NOT save. The data exists on
+      // the API and will be available shortly. Skip and retry instead.
+      const completedMatch = isMatchCompleted({
+        state: headerData?.matchStatus ?? matchSummary.state,
+        status: matchSummary.status,
+        substate: matchSummary.substate,
+        statusBoxContent: matchSummary.statusBoxContent,
+        scoreHome: headerData?.scoreHome ?? matchSummary.score?.home,
+        scoreAway: headerData?.scoreAway ?? matchSummary.score?.away,
+      });
+
+      const missingParts: string[] = [];
+      if (scope === "all" && completedMatch) {
+        if (sport === "football" && !stats) missingParts.push("Stats");
+        if (sport === "football" && participationData.length < 18)
+          missingParts.push("Lineups");
+        if (sport === "basketball" && !basketballTeamStats)
+          missingParts.push("BoxScore");
+        if (oddsArray.length === 0) missingParts.push("Odds");
+      }
+
+      // 502 caused missing data → do NOT save, retry later
+      if (hasCriticalError && missingParts.length > 0) {
+        this.logger.warn(
+          `[${matchId}] ⛔ SKIPPED SAVE: 502 errors caused missing [${missingParts.join(", ")}]. Will retry for complete data.`,
+        );
+        return { success: false, retryable: true };
+      }
+
+      // 4. SAVE
      let saved = false;
      if (scope === "lineups") {
        saved = await this.persistenceService.saveLineups(
@@ -923,32 +1028,11 @@ export class FeederService {
      */
      // ==========================================

-      const completedMatch = isMatchCompleted({
-        state: headerData?.matchStatus ?? matchSummary.state,
-        status: matchSummary.status,
-        substate: matchSummary.substate,
-        statusBoxContent: matchSummary.statusBoxContent,
-        scoreHome: headerData?.scoreHome ?? matchSummary.score?.home,
-        scoreAway: headerData?.scoreAway ?? matchSummary.score?.away,
-      });
-
-      const missingParts: string[] = [];
-      if (scope === "all" && completedMatch) {
-        if (sport === "football" && !stats) missingParts.push("Stats");
-        if (sport === "basketball" && !basketballTeamStats)
-          missingParts.push("BoxScore");
-        if (oddsArray.length === 0) missingParts.push("Odds");
-      }
-
-      if (saved && (hasCriticalError || missingParts.length > 0)) {
-        const reason = hasCriticalError
-          ? "missing data after upstream errors"
-          : "incomplete completed-match payload";
-
+      // No 502 but data genuinely missing → save anyway, log warning
+      if (saved && missingParts.length > 0) {
        this.logger.warn(
-          `[${matchId}] Saved with ${reason}. Missing: [${missingParts.join(", ")}]. Scheduled for retry.`,
+          `[${matchId}] Saved but data genuinely missing (no 502): [${missingParts.join(", ")}]`,
        );
-        return { success: false, retryable: true };
      }

      return { success: saved, retryable: !saved };
--- a/Show More
+++ b/Show More
Author	SHA1	Message	Date
fahricansecer	f3362f266c	gg	2026-05-10 22:52:05 +03:00
fahricansecer	c525b12dfd	gg	2026-05-10 10:37:45 +03:00
fahricansecer	4f7090e2d9	feat(ai-engine): value sniper thresholds and logic relaxed	2026-05-06 17:44:45 +03:00
fahricansecer	5b5f83c8cf	fix(ai-engine): remove target leakage from training data extraction Deploy Iddaai Backend / build-and-deploy (push) Successful in 6s Details - goals_form now uses avg of last 5 historical matches instead of current match goals - squad_quality removes current match goals/assists, uses only pre-match known data - adds temporal filtering via match_id -> mst_utc mapping	2026-05-05 22:35:04 +03:00
fahricansecer	bfddcaca7d	gg Deploy Iddaai Backend / build-and-deploy (push) Successful in 6s Details	2026-05-05 21:27:06 +03:00
fahricansecer	56d560af08	Update single_match_orchestrator.py Deploy Iddaai Backend / build-and-deploy (push) Successful in 8s Details	2026-05-05 20:59:59 +03:00
fahricansecer	4bc51cfa99	fix(ai-engine): hoist ms_edge before score prediction branch to prevent UnboundLocalError Deploy Iddaai Backend / build-and-deploy (push) Successful in 5s Details	2026-05-05 20:34:14 +03:00
fahricansecer	fdb8a5d0f0	fix(ai-engine): sync FEATURE_COLS with trained models (82→102 features) Deploy Iddaai Backend / build-and-deploy (push) Successful in 6s Details - Load feature columns dynamically from feature_cols.json - Add 20 missing odds_*_present boolean flags to fallback list - Fixes LightGBM 'features in data (82) != training data (102)' crash	2026-05-05 20:29:55 +03:00
fahricansecer	22596e69f2	fix(predictions): circuit breaker resilience + graceful degradation Deploy Iddaai Backend / build-and-deploy (push) Successful in 27s Details - Reset consecutiveFailures on cooldown expiry (half-open state) so a single retry failure doesn't immediately re-open the circuit - Exclude AI Engine app-level 500s from circuit breaker count (only network/infra errors: timeout, 502, 503, 504, 429) - Return null gracefully instead of throwing 503 when no cache exists - Add DB fallback for non-cooldown AI Engine failures - Remove blocking wait-and-retry that held requests for up to 20s	2026-05-05 20:19:25 +03:00
fahricansecer	f32badbd8f	fix(predictions): cooldown fallback cascade + circuit breaker tuning Deploy Iddaai Backend / build-and-deploy (push) Successful in 27s Details - Add 4-level fallback when AI circuit breaker fires cooldown: 1) In-memory cache (10min TTL) 2) DB stored prediction (no TTL filter) 3) DB cached prediction (with model version check) 4) Wait out cooldown + retry once (max 20s wait) - Raise circuit breaker threshold from 3 to 5 consecutive failures - Reduce cooldown duration from 30s to 15s for faster recovery - Add extractCooldownMs helper to parse remaining ms from error detail	2026-05-05 20:11:19 +03:00
fahricansecer	5645b38f20	main Deploy Iddaai Backend / build-and-deploy (push) Successful in 32s Details	2026-05-05 17:09:11 +03:00
fahricansecer	244d8f5366	feat(ai): expand training to 68K+ matches, add score model, backfill implied odds Deploy Iddaai Backend / build-and-deploy (push) Successful in 6s Details - extract_training_data.py: switch from top_leagues.json (23) to qualified_leagues.json (265) - update_implied_odds.py: new script to backfill implied odds from real market data - train_score_model.py: rewrite with v25 102-feature set + temporal split - single_match_orchestrator.py: integrate ML score model with heuristic fallback	2026-05-05 16:04:00 +03:00
fahricansecer	9bb8f39bca	gg Deploy Iddaai Backend / build-and-deploy (push) Successful in 2m45s Details	2026-05-05 14:06:20 +03:00
fahricansecer	7a1cf14e2f	Update matches.service.ts Deploy Iddaai Backend / build-and-deploy (push) Successful in 28s Details	2026-05-05 10:47:00 +03:00
fahricansecer	62c797d299	Update matches.service.ts Deploy Iddaai Backend / build-and-deploy (push) Successful in 29s Details	2026-05-05 10:13:23 +03:00
fahricansecer	34cc4a6cbb	Update matches.service.ts Deploy Iddaai Backend / build-and-deploy (push) Successful in 30s Details	2026-05-05 01:04:56 +03:00
fahricansecer	27e96da31d	main Deploy Iddaai Backend / build-and-deploy (push) Successful in 29s Details	2026-05-04 18:00:40 +03:00
fahricansecer	145a8b336b	fix(feeder): preserve pre-match odds when match goes live Deploy Iddaai Backend / build-and-deploy (push) Successful in 29s Details Live odds have missing selections (e.g. '1' key removed from Maç Sonucu after kickoff), causing the AI model to produce wildly incorrect predictions (e.g. 3.5% home win for Bristol City). Two guards added: 1. fetchOddsForMatches: Exclude live/finished matches from odds fetch query 2. processMatchOdds: Skip odds/lineups/sidelined overwrite if match already has pre-match odds and is live/finished	2026-05-02 16:32:42 +03:00
fahricansecer	7a8960edb8	chore: remove debug checkpoint logs and temp SQL files Deploy Iddaai Backend / build-and-deploy (push) Successful in 37s Details	2026-04-26 17:09:22 +03:00
fahricansecer	691c52f610	perf: replace Prisma relation queries with raw SQL for getExistingMatchIds and getMissingScopes - fixes Pi hang Deploy Iddaai Backend / build-and-deploy (push) Successful in 39s Details	2026-04-26 17:07:19 +03:00
fahricansecer	bc461429f6	debug: add checkpoint timestamps to processDate for hang diagnosis Deploy Iddaai Backend / build-and-deploy (push) Successful in 46s Details	2026-04-26 17:04:46 +03:00
fahricansecer	a338d02244	main Deploy Iddaai Backend / build-and-deploy (push) Successful in 2m42s Details	2026-04-26 03:07:18 +03:00
fahricansecer	1623432039	fix: watchdog force-kill with SIGKILL fallback when process.exit is blocked	2026-04-26 02:27:51 +03:00
fahricansecer	4c7930e9d2	feat: add watchdog timer to detect and recover from hung API requests Deploy Iddaai Backend / build-and-deploy (push) Successful in 27s Details	2026-04-25 11:20:30 +03:00
fahricansecer	ec463cb927	fix: make canvas import optional for ARM64 compatibility	2026-04-25 02:41:53 +03:00
fahricansecer	eab95c4e5c	Update feeder.service.ts Deploy Iddaai Backend / build-and-deploy (push) Successful in 30s Details	2026-04-25 02:23:38 +03:00
fahricansecer	9027cc9900	v28 Deploy Iddaai Backend / build-and-deploy (push) Successful in 3m21s Details	2026-04-24 23:46:28 +03:00
fahricansecer	3875f2a512	Create v28-pro-max-architecture.md Deploy Iddaai Backend / build-and-deploy (push) Successful in 27s Details	2026-04-24 02:30:26 +03:00
fahricansecer	300dceeb4b	Merge branch 'main' of https://gitea.bilgich.com/fahricansecer/iddaai-be Deploy Iddaai Backend / build-and-deploy (push) Successful in 27s Details	2026-04-24 02:10:48 +03:00
fahricansecer	ad01976fb9	fix: lineup data normalization + tomorrow match sync + player field mapping	2026-04-24 02:09:58 +03:00
fahricansecer	6880eb92f5	Merge pull request 'v26-shadow' (#4 ) from v26-shadow into main Deploy Iddaai Backend / build-and-deploy (push) Successful in 27s Details Reviewed-on: #4	2026-04-24 01:15:54 +03:00
fahricansecer	9e2edd590c	Merge branch 'main' into v26-shadow	2026-04-24 01:15:18 +03:00
fahricansecer	b5c2edf346	gg	2026-04-24 01:15:05 +03:00