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9 Commits

Author SHA1 Message Date
fahricansecer 988ee2f50d Add backtest pipeline, betting_brain filters, score coherence + social v3
betting_brain.py:
- HARD_MIN_SAMPLES=50 floor for calibrator bypass
- ev_edge < 0 + >= 0.20 hard vetoes
- BTTS muted (grid search found no profitable config)
- Per-market optimal envelopes (MS, OU25)
- Score coherence filter: main_pick must agree with score prediction
- HTFT reversal cross-check for MS picks

feature_builder.py / data_loader.py:
- Real home/away_position from data (was hardcoded 10)
- Cup detection wired into UpsetEngine
- _estimate_league_position with 300-day season filter

New scripts:
- diagnostic_backtest.py: per-bet diagnostic backtest with loss patterns
- optimize_filters.py: grid search per-market optimal thresholds
- analyze_backtest_csv.py: root-cause hypothesis testing on CSV
- compare_backtests.py: side-by-side validation with verdict
- test_score_coherence.py: smoke test for coherence filter (20/20 pass)

Reports:
- diagnostic_backtest_20260525_024437 (50-match smoke)
- diagnostic_backtest_20260525_035649 (1000-match in-sample)
- filter_optimization_patch.json (grid search winners per market)

Social poster v3:
- satori + resvg HTML/CSS rendering pipeline
- Twemoji football/basketball + flag SVGs
- caption SEO: 12 curated hashtags per post
- image SEO: descriptive filenames + .json metadata sidecar
- /health, /preview-png, /run-now endpoints

Docs:
- mds/SESSION_HANDOFF.md: full session state for cross-machine continuity
- mds/SOCIAL_POSTER_SETUP.md: API keys + test commands

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-25 20:43:28 +03:00
fahricansecer fa48f87f53 gg2
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2026-05-05 14:06:20 +03:00
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2026-04-26 03:07:18 +03:00
fahricansecer 9027cc9900 v28
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2026-04-24 23:46:28 +03:00
fahricansecer 2ccd6831eb gg 2026-04-21 16:53:56 +03:00
fahricansecer 7814e0bc6b first (part 1: root files)
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2026-04-16 15:09:10 +03:00