cr

src/scripts/backtest-accuracy.ts

@@ -9,8 +9,8 @@
  * Usage: npx ts-node --transpile-only -r tsconfig-paths/register src/scripts/backtest-accuracy.ts
  */
 
-import { PrismaClient } from '@prisma/client';
-import axios from 'axios';
+import { PrismaClient } from "@prisma/client";
+import axios from "axios";
 
 const prisma = new PrismaClient();
 
@@ -18,7 +18,7 @@ const prisma = new PrismaClient();
 // Configuration
 // ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════
 
-const AI_ENGINE_URL = process.env.AI_ENGINE_URL || 'http://127.0.0.1:3005';
+const AI_ENGINE_URL = process.env.AI_ENGINE_URL || "http://127.0.0.1:3005";
 const CONCURRENT_REQUESTS = 5;
 const MAX_MATCHES = 1000;
 
@@ -60,14 +60,14 @@ function determineActualOutcome(
   htScoreHome: number | null,
   htScoreAway: number | null,
 ): { ms: string; ou25: string; btts: string; htft: string } {
-  const ms = scoreHome > scoreAway ? '1' : scoreHome < scoreAway ? '2' : 'X';
-  const ou25 = scoreHome + scoreAway > 2.5 ? 'Over' : 'Under';
-  const btts = scoreHome > 0 && scoreAway > 0 ? 'Yes' : 'No';
+  const ms = scoreHome > scoreAway ? "1" : scoreHome < scoreAway ? "2" : "X";
+  const ou25 = scoreHome + scoreAway > 2.5 ? "Over" : "Under";
+  const btts = scoreHome > 0 && scoreAway > 0 ? "Yes" : "No";
 
-  let htft = 'unknown';
+  let htft = "unknown";
   if (htScoreHome !== null && htScoreAway !== null) {
     const htResult =
-      htScoreHome > htScoreAway ? '1' : htScoreHome < htScoreAway ? '2' : 'X';
+      htScoreHome > htScoreAway ? "1" : htScoreHome < htScoreAway ? "2" : "X";
     htft = `${htResult}/${ms}`;
   }
 
@@ -78,7 +78,7 @@ function extractPrediction(response: unknown): {
   ms: string;
   ou25: string;
   btts: string;
-  probs: BacktestResult['probabilities'];
+  probs: BacktestResult["probabilities"];
   mainPick: string;
   mainMarket: string;
 } {
@@ -87,9 +87,9 @@ function extractPrediction(response: unknown): {
 
   const mainPickObj = data?.main_pick as Record<string, unknown> | undefined;
   const mainPick =
-    typeof mainPickObj?.pick === 'string' ? mainPickObj.pick : '';
+    typeof mainPickObj?.pick === "string" ? mainPickObj.pick : "";
   const mainMarket =
-    typeof mainPickObj?.market === 'string' ? mainPickObj.market : '';
+    typeof mainPickObj?.market === "string" ? mainPickObj.market : "";
 
   // Extract MS from probabilities or main pick
   const msProbs = (predictions?.ms || data?.ms || {}) as Record<
@@ -97,27 +97,27 @@ function extractPrediction(response: unknown): {
     unknown
   >;
   const homeProb =
-    typeof msProbs['1'] === 'number'
-      ? msProbs['1']
-      : typeof msProbs.home_prob === 'number'
+    typeof msProbs["1"] === "number"
+      ? msProbs["1"]
+      : typeof msProbs.home_prob === "number"
         ? msProbs.home_prob
         : 0;
   const drawProb =
-    typeof msProbs['X'] === 'number'
-      ? msProbs['X']
-      : typeof msProbs.draw_prob === 'number'
+    typeof msProbs["X"] === "number"
+      ? msProbs["X"]
+      : typeof msProbs.draw_prob === "number"
         ? msProbs.draw_prob
         : 0;
   const awayProb =
-    typeof msProbs['2'] === 'number'
-      ? msProbs['2']
-      : typeof msProbs.away_prob === 'number'
+    typeof msProbs["2"] === "number"
+      ? msProbs["2"]
+      : typeof msProbs.away_prob === "number"
         ? msProbs.away_prob
         : 0;
 
-  let ms = '1';
-  if (drawProb > homeProb && drawProb > awayProb) ms = 'X';
-  else if (awayProb > homeProb) ms = '2';
+  let ms = "1";
+  if (drawProb > homeProb && drawProb > awayProb) ms = "X";
+  else if (awayProb > homeProb) ms = "2";
 
   // Extract OU25
   const ou25Probs = (predictions?.ou25 || data?.ou25 || {}) as Record<
@@ -125,18 +125,18 @@ function extractPrediction(response: unknown): {
     unknown
   >;
   const overProb =
-    typeof ou25Probs.Over === 'number'
+    typeof ou25Probs.Over === "number"
       ? ou25Probs.Over
-      : typeof ou25Probs.over_prob === 'number'
+      : typeof ou25Probs.over_prob === "number"
         ? ou25Probs.over_prob
         : 0;
   const underProb =
-    typeof ou25Probs.Under === 'number'
+    typeof ou25Probs.Under === "number"
       ? ou25Probs.Under
-      : typeof ou25Probs.under_prob === 'number'
+      : typeof ou25Probs.under_prob === "number"
         ? ou25Probs.under_prob
         : 0;
-  const ou25 = overProb > underProb ? 'Over' : 'Under';
+  const ou25 = overProb > underProb ? "Over" : "Under";
 
   // Extract BTTS
   const bttsProbs = (predictions?.btts || data?.btts || {}) as Record<
@@ -144,18 +144,18 @@ function extractPrediction(response: unknown): {
     unknown
   >;
   const bttsYes =
-    typeof bttsProbs.Yes === 'number'
+    typeof bttsProbs.Yes === "number"
       ? bttsProbs.Yes
-      : typeof bttsProbs.yes_prob === 'number'
+      : typeof bttsProbs.yes_prob === "number"
         ? bttsProbs.yes_prob
         : 0;
   const bttsNo =
-    typeof bttsProbs.No === 'number'
+    typeof bttsProbs.No === "number"
       ? bttsProbs.No
-      : typeof bttsProbs.no_prob === 'number'
+      : typeof bttsProbs.no_prob === "number"
         ? bttsProbs.no_prob
         : 0;
-  const btts = bttsYes > bttsNo ? 'Yes' : 'No';
+  const btts = bttsYes > bttsNo ? "Yes" : "No";
 
   return {
     ms,
@@ -197,11 +197,11 @@ async function processBatch(batch: TestMatch[]): Promise<BacktestResult[]> {
 
       // Check main pick
       let mainPickCorrect = false;
-      if (pred.mainMarket === 'MS') {
+      if (pred.mainMarket === "MS") {
         mainPickCorrect = pred.mainPick === actual.ms;
-      } else if (pred.mainMarket === 'OU25') {
+      } else if (pred.mainMarket === "OU25") {
         mainPickCorrect = pred.mainPick === actual.ou25;
-      } else if (pred.mainMarket === 'BTTS') {
+      } else if (pred.mainMarket === "BTTS") {
         mainPickCorrect = pred.mainPick === actual.btts;
       }
 
@@ -226,8 +226,8 @@ async function processBatch(batch: TestMatch[]): Promise<BacktestResult[]> {
 // ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════
 
 async function runBacktest(): Promise<void> {
-  console.log('🎯 BACKTEST ACCURACY — V30 Betting Engine');
-  console.log('════════════════════════════════════════════════════════');
+  console.log("🎯 BACKTEST ACCURACY — V30 Betting Engine");
+  console.log("════════════════════════════════════════════════════════");
 
   // 1. Health check
   try {
@@ -236,12 +236,12 @@ async function runBacktest(): Promise<void> {
     });
     console.log(`✅ AI Engine: ${JSON.stringify(health.data)}`);
   } catch {
-    console.error('❌ AI Engine not reachable at', AI_ENGINE_URL);
+    console.error("❌ AI Engine not reachable at", AI_ENGINE_URL);
     process.exit(1);
   }
 
   // 2. Load finished matches with features
-  console.log('\n📥 Loading test matches...');
+  console.log("\n📥 Loading test matches...");
   const matches = await prisma.$queryRaw<TestMatch[]>`
     SELECT m.id, m.score_home AS "scoreHome", m.score_away AS "scoreAway",
            m.ht_score_home AS "htScoreHome", m.ht_score_away AS "htScoreAway"
@@ -259,7 +259,7 @@ async function runBacktest(): Promise<void> {
   console.log(`  📊 Test matches: ${matches.length}`);
 
   // 3. Run predictions in batches
-  console.log('\n🤖 Running predictions...');
+  console.log("\n🤖 Running predictions...");
   const allResults: BacktestResult[] = [];
   let processed = 0;
 
@@ -277,7 +277,7 @@ async function runBacktest(): Promise<void> {
                 allResults.length) *
               100
             ).toFixed(1)
-          : '0';
+          : "0";
       console.log(
         `  📊 ${processed}/${matches.length} — Success: ${allResults.length} — MS Acc: ${currentMsAcc}%`,
       );
@@ -287,7 +287,7 @@ async function runBacktest(): Promise<void> {
   // 4. Calculate metrics
   const total = allResults.length;
   if (total === 0) {
-    console.error('❌ No results to analyze');
+    console.error("❌ No results to analyze");
     process.exit(1);
   }
 
@@ -303,22 +303,22 @@ async function runBacktest(): Promise<void> {
   const mainPickCorrect = allResults.filter((r) => r.mainPickCorrect).length;
 
   // Actual distribution
-  const actHome = allResults.filter((r) => r.actual.ms === '1').length;
-  const actDraw = allResults.filter((r) => r.actual.ms === 'X').length;
-  const actAway = allResults.filter((r) => r.actual.ms === '2').length;
+  const actHome = allResults.filter((r) => r.actual.ms === "1").length;
+  const actDraw = allResults.filter((r) => r.actual.ms === "X").length;
+  const actAway = allResults.filter((r) => r.actual.ms === "2").length;
 
   // Predicted distribution
-  const predHome = allResults.filter((r) => r.predicted.ms === '1').length;
-  const predDraw = allResults.filter((r) => r.predicted.ms === 'X').length;
-  const predAway = allResults.filter((r) => r.predicted.ms === '2').length;
+  const predHome = allResults.filter((r) => r.predicted.ms === "1").length;
+  const predDraw = allResults.filter((r) => r.predicted.ms === "X").length;
+  const predAway = allResults.filter((r) => r.predicted.ms === "2").length;
 
   // Confidence calibration (based on max probability)
   const buckets: Record<string, { correct: number; total: number }> = {
-    '33-40%': { correct: 0, total: 0 },
-    '40-50%': { correct: 0, total: 0 },
-    '50-60%': { correct: 0, total: 0 },
-    '60-70%': { correct: 0, total: 0 },
-    '70%+': { correct: 0, total: 0 },
+    "33-40%": { correct: 0, total: 0 },
+    "40-50%": { correct: 0, total: 0 },
+    "50-60%": { correct: 0, total: 0 },
+    "60-70%": { correct: 0, total: 0 },
+    "70%+": { correct: 0, total: 0 },
   };
 
   for (const r of allResults) {
@@ -329,25 +329,25 @@ async function runBacktest(): Promise<void> {
     );
     const key =
       maxProb >= 0.7
-        ? '70%+'
+        ? "70%+"
         : maxProb >= 0.6
-          ? '60-70%'
+          ? "60-70%"
           : maxProb >= 0.5
-            ? '50-60%'
+            ? "50-60%"
             : maxProb >= 0.4
-              ? '40-50%'
-              : '33-40%';
+              ? "40-50%"
+              : "33-40%";
     buckets[key].total++;
     if (r.predicted.ms === r.actual.ms) buckets[key].correct++;
   }
 
   // 5. Print Report
-  console.log('\n════════════════════════════════════════════════════════');
-  console.log('📊 BACKTEST ACCURACY REPORT');
-  console.log('════════════════════════════════════════════════════════');
+  console.log("\n════════════════════════════════════════════════════════");
+  console.log("📊 BACKTEST ACCURACY REPORT");
+  console.log("════════════════════════════════════════════════════════");
   console.log(`  Total Matches Analyzed: ${total}`);
-  console.log('');
-  console.log('  🎯 Market Accuracy:');
+  console.log("");
+  console.log("  🎯 Market Accuracy:");
   console.log(
     `     ⚽ Match Result (MS):     ${((msCorrect / total) * 100).toFixed(2)}%  (${msCorrect}/${total})`,
   );
@@ -361,7 +361,7 @@ async function runBacktest(): Promise<void> {
     `     🏆 Main Pick Success:     ${((mainPickCorrect / total) * 100).toFixed(2)}%  (${mainPickCorrect}/${total})`,
   );
 
-  console.log('\n  📊 MS Distribution:');
+  console.log("\n  📊 MS Distribution:");
   console.log(
     `     Actual:    1: ${actHome} (${((actHome / total) * 100).toFixed(1)}%) | X: ${actDraw} (${((actDraw / total) * 100).toFixed(1)}%) | 2: ${actAway} (${((actAway / total) * 100).toFixed(1)}%)`,
   );
@@ -369,21 +369,21 @@ async function runBacktest(): Promise<void> {
     `     Predicted: 1: ${predHome} (${((predHome / total) * 100).toFixed(1)}%) | X: ${predDraw} (${((predDraw / total) * 100).toFixed(1)}%) | 2: ${predAway} (${((predAway / total) * 100).toFixed(1)}%)`,
   );
 
-  console.log('\n  📊 Confidence Calibration:');
+  console.log("\n  📊 Confidence Calibration:");
   for (const [range, bucket] of Object.entries(buckets)) {
     if (bucket.total === 0) continue;
     const acc = (bucket.correct / bucket.total) * 100;
-    const bar = '█'.repeat(Math.round(acc / 3));
+    const bar = "█".repeat(Math.round(acc / 3));
     console.log(
       `     ${range.padEnd(8)} : ${acc.toFixed(1)}% acc (n=${bucket.total}) ${bar}`,
     );
   }
 
   // 6. Per-market deep dive
-  console.log('\n  📊 OU25 Breakdown:');
-  const actOver = allResults.filter((r) => r.actual.ou25 === 'Over').length;
+  console.log("\n  📊 OU25 Breakdown:");
+  const actOver = allResults.filter((r) => r.actual.ou25 === "Over").length;
   const actUnder = total - actOver;
-  const predOver = allResults.filter((r) => r.predicted.ou25 === 'Over').length;
+  const predOver = allResults.filter((r) => r.predicted.ou25 === "Over").length;
   const predUnder = total - predOver;
   console.log(
     `     Actual:    Over: ${actOver} (${((actOver / total) * 100).toFixed(1)}%) | Under: ${actUnder} (${((actUnder / total) * 100).toFixed(1)}%)`,
@@ -392,11 +392,11 @@ async function runBacktest(): Promise<void> {
     `     Predicted: Over: ${predOver} (${((predOver / total) * 100).toFixed(1)}%) | Under: ${predUnder} (${((predUnder / total) * 100).toFixed(1)}%)`,
   );
 
-  console.log('\n  📊 BTTS Breakdown:');
-  const actBttsYes = allResults.filter((r) => r.actual.btts === 'Yes').length;
+  console.log("\n  📊 BTTS Breakdown:");
+  const actBttsYes = allResults.filter((r) => r.actual.btts === "Yes").length;
   const actBttsNo = total - actBttsYes;
   const predBttsYes = allResults.filter(
-    (r) => r.predicted.btts === 'Yes',
+    (r) => r.predicted.btts === "Yes",
   ).length;
   const predBttsNo = total - predBttsYes;
   console.log(
@@ -406,14 +406,14 @@ async function runBacktest(): Promise<void> {
     `     Predicted: Yes: ${predBttsYes} (${((predBttsYes / total) * 100).toFixed(1)}%) | No: ${predBttsNo} (${((predBttsNo / total) * 100).toFixed(1)}%)`,
   );
 
-  console.log('════════════════════════════════════════════════════════');
-  console.log('✅ Backtest complete!');
+  console.log("════════════════════════════════════════════════════════");
+  console.log("✅ Backtest complete!");
 
   await prisma.$disconnect();
 }
 
 runBacktest().catch((err: unknown) => {
-  console.error('❌ Backtest failed:', err);
+  console.error("❌ Backtest failed:", err);
   void prisma.$disconnect();
   process.exit(1);
 });