gg

ai-engine/core/engines/player_predictor.py

@@ -18,15 +18,20 @@ from features.sidelined_analyzer import get_sidelined_analyzer
 
 @dataclass
 class PlayerPrediction:
-    """Player engine prediction output."""
+    """Player engine prediction output.
-    home_squad_quality: float = 50.0  # 0-100
+
-    away_squad_quality: float = 50.0
+    IMPORTANT: squad_quality uses the SAME composite formula as
-    squad_diff: float = 0.0  # -100 to +100
+    extract_training_data.py so that inference values match the
+    distribution the model was trained on (~3-36 range).
+    """
+    home_squad_quality: float = 12.0   # training-scale composite (~3-36)
+    away_squad_quality: float = 12.0
+    squad_diff: float = 0.0            # home - away (training scale)
     home_key_players: int = 0
     away_key_players: int = 0
-    home_missing_impact: float = 0.0  # 0-1, how much weaker due to missing players
+    home_missing_impact: float = 0.0   # 0-1, how much weaker due to missing players
     away_missing_impact: float = 0.0
-    home_goals_form: int = 0  # Goals in last 5 matches
+    home_goals_form: int = 0           # Goals in last 5 matches
     away_goals_form: int = 0
     lineup_available: bool = False
     confidence: float = 0.0
@@ -100,10 +105,12 @@ class PlayerPredictorEngine:
                 "home_goals_last_5": home_analysis.total_goals_last_5,
                 "home_assists_last_5": home_analysis.total_assists_last_5,
                 "home_key_players": home_analysis.key_players_count,
+                "home_forwards": home_analysis.forward_count or 2,
                 "away_starting_11": away_analysis.starting_count or 11,
                 "away_goals_last_5": away_analysis.total_goals_last_5,
                 "away_assists_last_5": away_analysis.total_assists_last_5,
                 "away_key_players": away_analysis.key_players_count,
+                "away_forwards": away_analysis.forward_count or 2,
             }
         elif match_id:
             # Try to get from database
@@ -131,13 +138,31 @@ class PlayerPredictorEngine:
         away_goals = features.get("away_goals_last_5", 0)
         home_key = features.get("home_key_players", 0)
         away_key = features.get("away_key_players", 0)
+        home_assists = features.get("home_assists_last_5", 0)
+        away_assists = features.get("away_assists_last_5", 0)
+        home_starting = features.get("home_starting_11", 11)
+        away_starting = features.get("away_starting_11", 11)
+        home_fwd = features.get("home_forwards", 2)
+        away_fwd = features.get("away_forwards", 2)
         
-        # Calculate squad quality (0-100)
+        # Calculate squad quality — MUST match extract_training_data.py formula
-        # Based on: goals scored, key players, assists
+        # Formula: starting_count * 0.3 + goals * 2.0 + assists * 1.0
-        home_quality = min(100, 50 + (home_goals * 3) + (home_key * 5) + 
+        #          + key_players * 3.0 + fwd_count * 1.5
-                          features.get("home_assists_last_5", 0) * 2)
+        # Typical range: ~3 – 36 (model trained on this distribution)
-        away_quality = min(100, 50 + (away_goals * 3) + (away_key * 5) + 
+        home_quality = (
-                          features.get("away_assists_last_5", 0) * 2)
+            home_starting * 0.3 +
+            home_goals * 2.0 +
+            home_assists * 1.0 +
+            home_key * 3.0 +
+            home_fwd * 1.5
+        )
+        away_quality = (
+            away_starting * 0.3 +
+            away_goals * 2.0 +
+            away_assists * 1.0 +
+            away_key * 3.0 +
+            away_fwd * 1.5
+        )
         
         # Squad difference
         squad_diff = home_quality - away_quality
@@ -186,8 +211,10 @@ class PlayerPredictorEngine:
         Calculate 1X2 probability modifiers based on squad analysis.
         
         Returns modifiers to apply to base probabilities.
+        squad_diff is in training scale (~-33 to +33), normalize to -1..+1.
         """
-        diff = prediction.squad_diff / 100  # -1 to +1
+        diff = prediction.squad_diff / 33.0  # training-scale normalisation
+        diff = max(-1.0, min(1.0, diff))      # clamp
         
         return {
             "home_modifier": 1.0 + (diff * 0.3),  # Up to +/-30%

ai-engine/services/single_match_orchestrator.py

@@ -597,7 +597,7 @@ class SingleMatchOrchestrator:
         the model fall back on stronger signals (odds, ELO, form, H2H).
         """
         defaults = {
-            'home_squad_quality': 0.50, 'away_squad_quality': 0.50, 'squad_diff': 0.0,
+            'home_squad_quality': 12.0, 'away_squad_quality': 12.0, 'squad_diff': 0.0,
             'home_key_players': 3.0, 'away_key_players': 3.0,
             'home_missing_impact': 0.0, 'away_missing_impact': 0.0,
             'home_goals_form': 1.3, 'away_goals_form': 1.3,
@@ -612,7 +612,7 @@ class SingleMatchOrchestrator:
                 away_lineup=data.away_lineup,
                 sidelined_data=data.sidelined_data,
             )
-            return {
+            result = {
                 'home_squad_quality': float(pred.home_squad_quality),
                 'away_squad_quality': float(pred.away_squad_quality),
                 'squad_diff': float(pred.squad_diff),
@@ -623,6 +623,13 @@ class SingleMatchOrchestrator:
                 'home_goals_form': float(pred.home_goals_form),
                 'away_goals_form': float(pred.away_goals_form),
             }
+            # Sanity check: squad_quality must be in training range (~3-36)
+            for side in ('home', 'away'):
+                sq = result[f'{side}_squad_quality']
+                if sq > 50 or sq < 0:
+                    print(f"🚨 SCALE MISMATCH: {side}_squad_quality={sq:.1f} "
+                          f"(expected 3-36). Check player_predictor formula!")
+            return result
         except Exception as e:
             print(f"⚠️ Squad features failed: {e}")
             return defaults