national

ai-engine/data/national_leagues.json

@@ -0,0 +1,31 @@
+{
+  "_meta": {
+    "purpose": "A-milli erkek futbol ligleri. betting_brain milli-maç gate'i bu listeyle tetiklenir.",
+    "strategy": "Milli maçta SADECE MS, oran 4.0-7.0, Hazırlık+Eleme oynanabilir. Turnuva/diğer market analiz-only. Backtest: +17% ROI, kararlılık-test geçti (eski/yeni yarı +22/+24%).",
+    "source": "2300-maç milli backtest (multi_backtest_20260602) segment+grid+stability analizi",
+    "competition_type_rule": "lig adı: 'hazırlık'->HAZIRLIK | 'eleme'/'play-off'->ELEME | diğer->TURNUVA"
+  },
+  "league_ids": [
+    "cesdwwnxbc5fmajgroc0hqzy2",
+    "3aa4mumjl6zyetg6o9hwd5hhx",
+    "40yjcbx2sq6oq736iqqqczwt1",
+    "39q1hq42hxjfylxb7xpe9bvf9",
+    "cu0rmpyff5692eo06ltddjo8a",
+    "ax1yf4nlzqpcji4j8epdgx3zl",
+    "1gxlzw2ezkyeykhcaa5x8ozkk",
+    "gfskxsdituog2kqp9yiu7bzi",
+    "595nsvo7ykvoe690b1e4u5n56",
+    "68zplepppndhl8bfdvgy9vgu1",
+    "3a0j0giz3c3ajw9h59evv7lqt",
+    "emy1ibc8fu2l0fukh4vlu5xl5",
+    "2db0aw1duj2my9l5iey5gm6nq",
+    "cc5tzz23tryrfqbm2pbv0jill",
+    "8tddm56zbasf57jkkay4kbf11",
+    "2r1hqz453bn9ljzt53kdr2lwb",
+    "93i7thp7zi0ympyt6l8aa1r2i",
+    "45db8orh1qttbsqq9hqapmbit",
+    "ude9t6yj60lebbn356qzg4k4",
+    "9qzn8cs96sgtqmesa9gpfti23",
+    "ad8y7vdjhinfqv4wo8rod6dck"
+  ]
+}

ai-engine/services/betting_brain.py

@@ -41,6 +41,23 @@ class BettingBrain:
     VALUE_TIER_STAKE_UNITS = 0.5
     TRAP_MARKET_GAP = 0.10
 
+    # ── V31f: NATIONAL-TEAM REGIME ───────────────────────────────────────
+    # National matches behave nothing like clubs (2300-match backtest):
+    #   * Only MS carries edge — OU/BTTS/HT/DC/OE all -12%..-21% → hard mute.
+    #   * MS edge lives in the 4.0–7.0 odds band for HAZIRLIK/ELEME fixtures
+    #     (+17% ROI, stable across older/newer halves: +22%/+24%).
+    #   * Favorites (odds<3) lose (-10..-18%); TURNUVA inverts the pattern
+    #     (4-7 band is -9% there) → tournaments get NO bet (analysis only).
+    # Calibration is fine; this is a *bet-selection* gate, applied only when
+    # match_info.is_national is True. Clubs are completely unaffected.
+    # See mds/national-team-strategy.md.
+    NATIONAL_BET_MARKET = "MS"
+    NATIONAL_MIN_ODDS = 4.0
+    NATIONAL_MAX_ODDS = 7.0
+    NATIONAL_ALLOWED_COMPETITIONS = {"HAZIRLIK", "ELEME"}
+    NATIONAL_BASE_SCORE = 66.0          # clears MIN_BET_SCORE(62) when gate passes
+    NATIONAL_STAKE_UNITS = 0.5          # flat, high-variance band (~24% hit)
+
     MARKET_MIN_CONFIDENCE = {
         "MS": 45.0,
         "DC": 55.0,
@@ -366,7 +383,7 @@ class BettingBrain:
 
         rejected = [d for d in decisions if d.get("action") == "REJECT"]
         guarded["betting_brain"] = {
-            "version": "judge-v31d-evidence-tiers",
+            "version": "judge-v31f-national-regime",
             "decision": decision,
             "reason": decision_reason,
             "main_pick_key": main_key or None,
@@ -396,6 +413,10 @@ class BettingBrain:
         pick = str(row.get("pick") or "")
         model_prob = self._market_probability(row, package)
         odds = self._safe_float(row.get("odds"), 0.0) or 0.0
+        # V31f: national-team match flags (set by orchestrator in match_info).
+        _mi = package.get("match_info") or {}
+        is_national = bool(_mi.get("is_national"))
+        competition_type = str(_mi.get("competition_type") or "")
         implied = (1.0 / odds) if odds > 1.0 else 0.0
         model_gap = (model_prob - implied) if model_prob is not None and implied > 0 else None
         calibrated_conf = self._safe_float(row.get("calibrated_confidence", row.get("confidence")), 0.0) or 0.0
@@ -713,6 +734,85 @@ class BettingBrain:
             score = value_score
             positives.append(f"value_tier_{tier_value}")
 
+        # ── V31f: NATIONAL-TEAM REGIME (overrides club logic) ─────────────
+        # For national matches the validated strategy is a narrow, mechanical
+        # value gate (MS / odds 4-7 / Hazırlık+Eleme). We REPLACE the club
+        # verdict so club-tuned vetoes/scores don't distort it. All the rich
+        # analysis (probs, model_gap, divergence, triple) above is preserved
+        # in the payload below — only action/score/stake are decided here.
+        national_gate_passed = False
+        if is_national:
+            in_band = self.NATIONAL_MIN_ODDS <= odds <= self.NATIONAL_MAX_ODDS
+            is_bet_market = market == self.NATIONAL_BET_MARKET
+            comp_ok = competition_type in self.NATIONAL_ALLOWED_COMPETITIONS
+            # Genuine safety vetoes still kill the bet even for national matches.
+            hard_unsafe = {
+                "low_reliability_league_hard_block",
+                "v25_v27_hard_disagreement",
+                "extreme_negative_ev",
+                "htft_reversal_risk_high",
+            }
+            has_hard_unsafe = any(v in hard_unsafe for v in vetoes)
+
+            national_vetoes: List[str] = []
+            if not is_bet_market:
+                national_vetoes.append("national_non_ms_market_muted")
+            if not comp_ok:
+                national_vetoes.append("national_tournament_no_bet")
+            if not in_band:
+                national_vetoes.append("national_odds_outside_value_band")
+            if has_hard_unsafe:
+                national_vetoes.append("national_hard_safety_veto")
+
+            if national_vetoes:
+                vetoes = national_vetoes
+                action = "REJECT"
+                score = min(score, 40.0)
+                issues.append(f"national_gate:{competition_type or 'unknown'}")
+            else:
+                vetoes = []
+                national_gate_passed = True
+                score = self.NATIONAL_BASE_SCORE + max(-4.0, min(8.0, ev_edge * 30.0))
+                score = max(0.0, min(100.0, score))
+                action = "BET"
+                positives.append("national_value_gate_passed")
+                issues.append(f"national_gate:{competition_type}")
+            # skip the club action logic below
+            row["betting_brain"] = {
+                "action": action,
+                "score": round(score, 1),
+                "summary": self._summary(action, market, pick, positives, issues, vetoes),
+                "positives": positives[:5],
+                "issues": issues[:6],
+                "vetoes": vetoes[:6],
+                "sniper_bypassed": sniper_bypassed,
+                "value_tier_bypassed": [],
+                "is_value_tier": False,
+                "is_national": True,  # V31f
+                "competition_type": competition_type,
+                "trap_market_flag": trap_market_flag,
+                "trap_market_gap": trap_market_gap,
+                "tier_label": "national_value" if national_gate_passed else None,
+                "value_tier": None,
+                "model_prob": round(model_prob, 4) if model_prob is not None else None,
+                "implied_prob": round(implied, 4),
+                "model_market_gap": round(model_gap, 4) if model_gap is not None else None,
+                "v27_prob": round(v27_prob, 4) if v27_prob is not None else None,
+                "divergence": round(divergence, 4) if divergence is not None else None,
+                "triple_key": triple_key,
+                "triple_value": triple,
+            }
+            if national_gate_passed:
+                row["is_guaranteed"] = False  # high-variance band, never "guaranteed"
+                row["pick_reason"] = "national_value_gate"
+                row["stake_units"] = self.NATIONAL_STAKE_UNITS
+                row["bet_grade"] = "B"
+                row["playable"] = True
+            else:
+                self._force_no_bet(row, f"betting_brain_{action.lower()}")
+            self._append_reason(row, f"betting_brain_national_{action.lower()}_{round(score)}")
+            return row
+
         score = max(0.0, min(100.0, score))
         action = "BET"
         if vetoes:

ai-engine/services/orchestrator/market_board.py

@@ -108,6 +108,26 @@ class MarketBoardMixin:
             "hit": info.get("hit"),
         }
 
+    def _is_national_match(self, league_id: Optional[str]) -> bool:
+        """True if this league is an A-milli (senior men's) national competition."""
+        if not league_id:
+            return False
+        natl = getattr(self, "national_leagues", None) or set()
+        return str(league_id) in natl
+
+    def _competition_type_for(
+        self, league_id: Optional[str], league_name: Optional[str]
+    ) -> Optional[str]:
+        """For national matches, classify HAZIRLIK/ELEME/TURNUVA from the league
+        name. None for non-national leagues (clubs don't use this)."""
+        if not self._is_national_match(league_id):
+            return None
+        try:
+            from utils.national_leagues import classify_competition
+            return classify_competition(league_name or "")
+        except Exception:
+            return None
+
     def _build_prediction_package(
         self,
         data: MatchData,
@@ -346,6 +366,9 @@ class MarketBoardMixin:
                 # Backtest-derived per-league confidence (ROI + sample size).
                 # None when the league has too little data to judge → FE shows no badge.
                 "league_confidence": self._league_confidence_for(data.league_id),
+                # National-team match flags (drive betting_brain's national gate).
+                "is_national": self._is_national_match(data.league_id),
+                "competition_type": self._competition_type_for(data.league_id, data.league_name),
                 "match_date_ms": data.match_date_ms,
                 "sport": data.sport,
                 # Live snapshot — match_commentary uses this to detect upset-in-progress

ai-engine/services/single_match_orchestrator.py

@@ -58,6 +58,7 @@ from services.match_commentary import generate_match_commentary
 from utils.top_leagues import load_top_league_ids
 from utils.league_reliability import load_league_reliability
 from utils.league_confidence import load_league_confidence
+from utils.national_leagues import load_national_leagues
 from config.config_loader import build_threshold_dict, get_threshold_default, get_config
 from models.calibration import get_calibrator
 
@@ -173,6 +174,7 @@ class SingleMatchOrchestrator(
         self.top_league_ids = load_top_league_ids()
         self.league_reliability = load_league_reliability()
         self.league_confidence = load_league_confidence()
+        self.national_leagues = load_national_leagues()
         self.enrichment = FeatureEnrichmentService()
         self.odds_band_analyzer = OddsBandAnalyzer()
         # ── Market Thresholds (loaded from config/market_thresholds.json) ──

ai-engine/utils/national_leagues.py

@@ -0,0 +1,67 @@
+"""
+National-Team League Loader + Competition-Type Classifier
+=========================================================
+Loads the A-milli (senior men's) football league IDs from
+data/national_leagues.json and classifies a league name into a
+competition type. Powers the betting_brain national-match gate.
+
+Why this exists:
+    Backtest (2300 national matches) showed national matches behave very
+    differently from clubs — only the MS market carries edge, and only in
+    the 4.0–7.0 odds band for Hazırlık/Eleme fixtures (tournaments behave
+    inversely). Calibration is fine; the issue is *which* bets to allow.
+    See mds/national-team-strategy.md.
+
+Usage:
+    from utils.national_leagues import load_national_leagues, classify_competition
+    natl = load_national_leagues()         # set[str] of league_ids
+    ctype = classify_competition(name)     # "HAZIRLIK" | "ELEME" | "TURNUVA"
+"""
+
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import json
+import os
+from typing import Set
+
+
+_DATA_FILE = os.path.join(
+    os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__)),
+    "..",
+    "data",
+    "national_leagues.json",
+)
+
+
+def load_national_leagues() -> Set[str]:
+    """Return the set of A-milli football league IDs (empty on any failure)."""
+    if not os.path.isfile(_DATA_FILE):
+        print(
+            f"⚠️  national_leagues.json not found at {_DATA_FILE}. "
+            "National-match gate disabled (no league treated as national)."
+        )
+        return set()
+    try:
+        with open(_DATA_FILE, "r", encoding="utf-8") as f:
+            data = json.load(f)
+        ids = set(str(x) for x in (data.get("league_ids") or []))
+        print(f"✅ Loaded {len(ids)} national-team league IDs")
+        return ids
+    except (json.JSONDecodeError, KeyError, TypeError) as exc:
+        print(f"⚠️  Failed to parse national_leagues.json: {exc}")
+        return set()
+
+
+def classify_competition(league_name: str) -> str:
+    """Map a league name to a competition type.
+
+    HAZIRLIK = friendlies, ELEME = qualifiers/play-offs, TURNUVA = finals/cups.
+    The backtest edge lives in HAZIRLIK+ELEME (MS, odds 4-7); TURNUVA is
+    handled conservatively (no bet) by the gate.
+    """
+    n = (league_name or "").lower()
+    if "hazırlık" in n or "hazirlik" in n or "friendl" in n:
+        return "HAZIRLIK"
+    if "eleme" in n or "play-off" in n or "playoff" in n or "qualif" in n:
+        return "ELEME"
+    return "TURNUVA"

mds/national-team-strategy.md

@@ -0,0 +1,70 @@
+# Milli Takım / Dünya Kupası — Bahis Stratejisi (Veri-Temelli)
+
+> Kaynak: 2.300 maçlık milli backtest (multi_backtest_20260602, /tmp/bt_natl.csv).
+> Tüm rakamlar offline simülasyon (production'a dokunulmadan, aynı veride kural testi).
+> Tarih: 2026-06.
+
+## Temel Bulgular (kanıtlanmış)
+1. **Kalibrasyon İYİ** (MS ECE 1.6, OU15 2.2) — model olasılıkları milli maçta da doğru.
+   Sorun kalibrasyon değil EDGE. Yani piyasa oranları da keskin; avantaj sadece
+   belirli segmentlerde var.
+2. **Sadece MS market'inde edge var.** OU/BTTS/HT/DC/OE hepsi "bet-all" ROI
+   −12%..−21% — milli maçta gol/skor marketleri güvenilmez, KAPATILMALI.
+3. **MS'te edge oran bandına + rekabet türüne bağlı:**
+   - Favori (oran<3): zararlı (−10..−18%). Milli favoriler takılır (rotasyon/motivasyon).
+   - Denk-üstü (oran 4-7): ELEME/HAZIRLIK'ta kârlı, TURNUVA'da zararlı.
+4. **Rekabet türü kritik faktör** (DB'de feature YOK, lig adından türetilir):
+   HAZIRLIK / ELEME / TURNUVA çok farklı davranır.
+
+## Grid + Kararlılık Testi (overfit'e karşı)
+En iyi kombolar (N>=150, MS market):
+| kural | N | hit% | ROI |
+|---|---|---|---|
+| 4.0-7.0 sadece ELEME | 585 | 25% | +23.1% |
+| 3.5-6.0 HAZ+ELE | 1021 | 25% | +14.5% |
+| **4.0-7.0 HAZ+ELE (SEÇİLEN)** | **865** | **24%** | **+17.1%** |
+| 3.0-6.0 HAZ+ELE | 1381 | 25% | +10.1% |
+
+**Kararlılık (en güçlü kanıt):** "4-7 sadece ELEME" eski yarı +22.1% / yeni yarı +24.0%
+→ iki bağımsız zaman diliminde de pozitif = overfit DEĞİL, sahada tutar.
+
+## TURNUVA/FİNAL farkı (Dünya Kupası finalleri için kritik)
+Turnuva (Avrupa Şamp, Copa America, Uluslar Ligi, Gold Cup, Asya/Afrika Kupası):
+- 4-7 bandı turnuvada ZARARLI (−8.9%) — elemenin tersi.
+- Sadece underdog 5+ kârlı (+51% ama n=274, oynak, şans payı yüksek).
+- Sebep: büyük turnuva finallerinde favoriler tutarlı, sürpriz az.
+
+## SEÇİLEN STRATEJİ (kullanıcı kararı)
+**Milli-maç gate kuralı:**
+- Market: SADECE MS (diğer tüm marketler milli maçta kapalı)
+- Oran bandı: 4.0 ≤ odds < 7.0
+- Rekabet türü: SADECE Hazırlık + Eleme
+- TURNUVA/FİNAL: bahis ÖNERME (sadece analiz/olasılık göster). Underdog +51%
+  cazip ama oynak/az-örneklem → gerçek paraya bağlanmadı (kullanıcı kararı).
+Beklenen: +17% ROI, ~865 bahis/2300 maç. Mevcut gate +0.9% idi → ~19x iyileşme.
+
+## Mimari Notu (uygulama için)
+- Sorun model değil → ayrı ML modeli GEREKSİZ (1898 maç zaten overfit riski; karar verildi: kurma).
+- Çözüm = betting brain'de milli-maça özel GATE (eğitim-sonrası kural katmanı).
+- Rekabet türü lig adından türetilir: 'hazırlık'→HAZIRLIK, 'eleme/play-off'→ELEME,
+  diğer→TURNUVA. Milli lig tespiti: qualified_leagues.json'a eklenen 21 milli lig.
+- Kalıcı feature olarak rekabet türü eklenebilir (daha temiz) ama gate hardcode de yeter.
+
+## Durum: UYGULANDI + DOĞRULANDI (betting_brain v31f-national-regime).
+Kod:
+- utils/national_leagues.py — loader (data/national_leagues.json, 21 lig) + classify_competition
+- single_match_orchestrator.py — self.national_leagues yüklenir
+- orchestrator/market_board.py — match_info.is_national + competition_type; _is_national_match/_competition_type_for helpers
+- betting_brain.py _judge_row — national regime bloğu: is_national ise club mantığını override eder,
+  SADECE MS + 4.0-7.0 + (HAZIRLIK|ELEME) → BET (NATIONAL_BASE_SCORE 66, stake 0.5u, grade B),
+  diğer her şey REJECT. Hard-safety vetoları (low_reliability_hard, v25_v27_hard, htft_reversal)
+  national'da da geçerli. Rich analiz payload korunur.
+
+DOĞRULAMA (V2 backtest, yeni gate aktif, 1829 maç, /tmp/bt_natl_v2.csv):
+  BET=784 → TAMAMI MS, oran 4.00-6.99 (bant dışı 0 bahis), hit %23.7, ROI +16.0%, +125.7u.
+  Simülasyondaki +17% ile birebir. OU/BTTS/HT/turnuva artık 0 BET.
+
+NOT: ai-engine ~10:10'da restart oldu (compose) → national-gate + V31e recal + league_confidence
+  kodu CANLI API'de aktif. Ama bunlar docker cp ile deploy edildi; kalıcılık için repo commit +
+  image rebuild gerekir (yeni container build'inde kaybolur).
+## İlgili: 422 lig-gate düzeltmesi CANLIDA (qualified_leagues 48→69, milli ligler açıldı).