national

ai-engine/services/betting_brain.py

@@ -41,6 +41,23 @@ class BettingBrain:
     VALUE_TIER_STAKE_UNITS = 0.5
     TRAP_MARKET_GAP = 0.10
 
+    # ── V31f: NATIONAL-TEAM REGIME ───────────────────────────────────────
+    # National matches behave nothing like clubs (2300-match backtest):
+    #   * Only MS carries edge — OU/BTTS/HT/DC/OE all -12%..-21% → hard mute.
+    #   * MS edge lives in the 4.0–7.0 odds band for HAZIRLIK/ELEME fixtures
+    #     (+17% ROI, stable across older/newer halves: +22%/+24%).
+    #   * Favorites (odds<3) lose (-10..-18%); TURNUVA inverts the pattern
+    #     (4-7 band is -9% there) → tournaments get NO bet (analysis only).
+    # Calibration is fine; this is a *bet-selection* gate, applied only when
+    # match_info.is_national is True. Clubs are completely unaffected.
+    # See mds/national-team-strategy.md.
+    NATIONAL_BET_MARKET = "MS"
+    NATIONAL_MIN_ODDS = 4.0
+    NATIONAL_MAX_ODDS = 7.0
+    NATIONAL_ALLOWED_COMPETITIONS = {"HAZIRLIK", "ELEME"}
+    NATIONAL_BASE_SCORE = 66.0          # clears MIN_BET_SCORE(62) when gate passes
+    NATIONAL_STAKE_UNITS = 0.5          # flat, high-variance band (~24% hit)
+
     MARKET_MIN_CONFIDENCE = {
         "MS": 45.0,
         "DC": 55.0,
@@ -366,7 +383,7 @@ class BettingBrain:
 
         rejected = [d for d in decisions if d.get("action") == "REJECT"]
         guarded["betting_brain"] = {
-            "version": "judge-v31d-evidence-tiers",
+            "version": "judge-v31f-national-regime",
             "decision": decision,
             "reason": decision_reason,
             "main_pick_key": main_key or None,
@@ -396,6 +413,10 @@ class BettingBrain:
         pick = str(row.get("pick") or "")
         model_prob = self._market_probability(row, package)
         odds = self._safe_float(row.get("odds"), 0.0) or 0.0
+        # V31f: national-team match flags (set by orchestrator in match_info).
+        _mi = package.get("match_info") or {}
+        is_national = bool(_mi.get("is_national"))
+        competition_type = str(_mi.get("competition_type") or "")
         implied = (1.0 / odds) if odds > 1.0 else 0.0
         model_gap = (model_prob - implied) if model_prob is not None and implied > 0 else None
         calibrated_conf = self._safe_float(row.get("calibrated_confidence", row.get("confidence")), 0.0) or 0.0
@@ -713,6 +734,85 @@ class BettingBrain:
             score = value_score
             positives.append(f"value_tier_{tier_value}")
 
+        # ── V31f: NATIONAL-TEAM REGIME (overrides club logic) ─────────────
+        # For national matches the validated strategy is a narrow, mechanical
+        # value gate (MS / odds 4-7 / Hazırlık+Eleme). We REPLACE the club
+        # verdict so club-tuned vetoes/scores don't distort it. All the rich
+        # analysis (probs, model_gap, divergence, triple) above is preserved
+        # in the payload below — only action/score/stake are decided here.
+        national_gate_passed = False
+        if is_national:
+            in_band = self.NATIONAL_MIN_ODDS <= odds <= self.NATIONAL_MAX_ODDS
+            is_bet_market = market == self.NATIONAL_BET_MARKET
+            comp_ok = competition_type in self.NATIONAL_ALLOWED_COMPETITIONS
+            # Genuine safety vetoes still kill the bet even for national matches.
+            hard_unsafe = {
+                "low_reliability_league_hard_block",
+                "v25_v27_hard_disagreement",
+                "extreme_negative_ev",
+                "htft_reversal_risk_high",
+            }
+            has_hard_unsafe = any(v in hard_unsafe for v in vetoes)
+
+            national_vetoes: List[str] = []
+            if not is_bet_market:
+                national_vetoes.append("national_non_ms_market_muted")
+            if not comp_ok:
+                national_vetoes.append("national_tournament_no_bet")
+            if not in_band:
+                national_vetoes.append("national_odds_outside_value_band")
+            if has_hard_unsafe:
+                national_vetoes.append("national_hard_safety_veto")
+
+            if national_vetoes:
+                vetoes = national_vetoes
+                action = "REJECT"
+                score = min(score, 40.0)
+                issues.append(f"national_gate:{competition_type or 'unknown'}")
+            else:
+                vetoes = []
+                national_gate_passed = True
+                score = self.NATIONAL_BASE_SCORE + max(-4.0, min(8.0, ev_edge * 30.0))
+                score = max(0.0, min(100.0, score))
+                action = "BET"
+                positives.append("national_value_gate_passed")
+                issues.append(f"national_gate:{competition_type}")
+            # skip the club action logic below
+            row["betting_brain"] = {
+                "action": action,
+                "score": round(score, 1),
+                "summary": self._summary(action, market, pick, positives, issues, vetoes),
+                "positives": positives[:5],
+                "issues": issues[:6],
+                "vetoes": vetoes[:6],
+                "sniper_bypassed": sniper_bypassed,
+                "value_tier_bypassed": [],
+                "is_value_tier": False,
+                "is_national": True,  # V31f
+                "competition_type": competition_type,
+                "trap_market_flag": trap_market_flag,
+                "trap_market_gap": trap_market_gap,
+                "tier_label": "national_value" if national_gate_passed else None,
+                "value_tier": None,
+                "model_prob": round(model_prob, 4) if model_prob is not None else None,
+                "implied_prob": round(implied, 4),
+                "model_market_gap": round(model_gap, 4) if model_gap is not None else None,
+                "v27_prob": round(v27_prob, 4) if v27_prob is not None else None,
+                "divergence": round(divergence, 4) if divergence is not None else None,
+                "triple_key": triple_key,
+                "triple_value": triple,
+            }
+            if national_gate_passed:
+                row["is_guaranteed"] = False  # high-variance band, never "guaranteed"
+                row["pick_reason"] = "national_value_gate"
+                row["stake_units"] = self.NATIONAL_STAKE_UNITS
+                row["bet_grade"] = "B"
+                row["playable"] = True
+            else:
+                self._force_no_bet(row, f"betting_brain_{action.lower()}")
+            self._append_reason(row, f"betting_brain_national_{action.lower()}_{round(score)}")
+            return row
+
         score = max(0.0, min(100.0, score))
         action = "BET"
         if vetoes: