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Fahri Can Seçer
2026-04-24 01:15:05 +03:00
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ai-engine/scripts/backtest_50_detailed.py
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"""
Detailed Backtest with 50 Top League Matches
============================================
Runs AI Engine predictions on 50 real historical matches and shows
exactly which predictions were correct and which were skipped.
Usage:
python ai-engine/scripts/backtest_50_detailed.py
"""
import os
import sys
import json
import time
import psycopg2
from psycopg2.extras import RealDictCursor
# Add paths
AI_DIR = os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__))
ROOT_DIR = os.path.dirname(AI_DIR)
sys.path.insert(0, ROOT_DIR)
if "scripts" in os.path.basename(AI_DIR):
ROOT_DIR = os.path.dirname(ROOT_DIR)
from services.single_match_orchestrator import get_single_match_orchestrator
def get_clean_dsn() -> str:
return "postgresql://suggestbet:SuGGesT2026SecuRe@localhost:15432/boilerplate_db"
# 50 Match IDs from the query
MATCH_IDS = [
"v2ljcst50nk37x04xwimpi50", "7gz0bhb5yvdssazl3y5946kno", "7ftj7kbu4rzpewxravf3luuc4",
"7f1z4e8ch1dm5q677644cky6s", "7ffq3aq3so22iymfdzch63nys", "rrkmeuymz7gzvoz8mplikzdg",
"7hegc9covicy699bxsi81xkb8", "7gl7rpr1hjayk3e5ut0gr613o", "7g7d86i3738287xfvyfeffcwk",
"7hs4boe4hv80muawocevvx2j8", "7ijhsloieg4t9yp5cxp0duln8", "7ixaiiptli5ek32kuybuni4gk",
"7i5sfh41cjpwg4l972dm487x0", "eo7g4wunxxxr8uv45q8p5x638", "7dinds2937w4645wva2rddlas",
"7b5ukdhvqh62wtndeqfg01ixg", "7bjptsj24gndoydn7n0202g44", "7cqxf3vo58ewrwmoom5xiyexg",
"7bxjl9h2hnf165rlp3o1vfztg", "7eo8zrez08c342rqsezpvq39w", "7as1muhs98vdarlhsean4bspg",
"7dwhj8cfxv6v6bzxpu5e3h05w", "7d4vq4417ps84yjzh95bnvvv8", "7ea9z501jgp9kxw3gay4myrkk",
"7cd3401itlty6ded7c1wct0yc", "ebgpz9mcije2snv986n6587pw", "i7ar1dkhvcwpxmkyks65ib6c",
"lyek7tyy6qk2xjs9vblucnx0", "hdn9qtyn3ysjwbc3i2trantg", "3y2bnssfqlajosiz2gpkn6xhw",
"40pehd14s9djjtycujavbex3o", "3xnbfjznzmnwml20akbgnis5w", "2eovi2rcc2l4ha7fpb2w7e1hw",
"2bwuikdjyyuithhru8ka8o00k", "2d3pcd76ya9ihi9yotxc553is", "1e9it04z4epy2etdxsffe7m6s",
"7af49jgo4iulv1k8cplj9smj8", "5k3vrz619hdu9nx4rnx6uim1g", "amjppgpetnyr0iisi241kgkyc",
"coqrhq09kxd16iejvgtzj3mz8", "d8ysan1qdctmkvjaz2adw7aqc", "9ttciz0gtb0z09ev1q5fe0ro4",
"9u720o37yaddqu1w6hlszpnh0", "7ijezdjp8t0rjti91ac63hyxg", "72gvdvztbb3dn79jidzzxzcb8",
"6uof1v2s6vrpieeml2bwo9tlg", "91dd8ia3m0bxoqzjgyo3ptsk", "3tj1nt3udsbvb9soqn2cs6gpg",
"1br5g88o5idtjxka1fr6zg4k4", "akuesquthbmxlzckvnqmgles4"
]
def run_detailed_backtest():
print("🚀 DETAILED BACKTEST: 50 Top League Matches")
print("🧠 Engine: V30 Ensemble (V20+V25) + Skip Logic")
print("="*80)
dsn = get_clean_dsn()
conn = psycopg2.connect(dsn)
cur = conn.cursor(cursor_factory=RealDictCursor)
# Fetch match details with odds
placeholders = ','.join(['%s'] * len(MATCH_IDS))
cur.execute(f"""
SELECT m.id, m.match_name, m.home_team_id, m.away_team_id,
m.score_home, m.score_away, m.league_id,
t1.name as home_team, t2.name as away_team,
l.name as league_name
FROM matches m
LEFT JOIN teams t1 ON m.home_team_id = t1.id
LEFT JOIN teams t2 ON m.away_team_id = t2.id
LEFT JOIN leagues l ON m.league_id = l.id
WHERE m.id IN ({placeholders})
AND m.status = 'FT'
ORDER BY m.mst_utc DESC
""", MATCH_IDS)
rows = cur.fetchall()
print(f"📊 Found {len(rows)} matches. Starting AI Analysis...")
if not rows:
print("⚠️ No matches found.")
cur.close()
conn.close()
return
# Initialize AI Engine
try:
orchestrator = get_single_match_orchestrator()
print("✅ AI Engine Loaded.\n")
except Exception as e:
print(f"❌ Failed to load AI Engine: {e}")
cur.close()
conn.close()
return
# ─── Backtest Loop ───
results = []
total_skipped = 0
total_played = 0
total_won = 0
total_profit = 0.0
MIN_CONF = 45.0
start_time = time.time()
for i, row in enumerate(rows):
match_id = str(row['id'])
home_team = row['home_team'] or "Unknown"
away_team = row['away_team'] or "Unknown"
league = row['league_name'] or "Unknown"
home_score = row['score_home'] or 0
away_score = row['score_away'] or 0
total_goals = home_score + away_score
print(f"[{i+1}/{len(rows)}] {home_team} vs {away_team} ({league}) ... ", end="", flush=True)
try:
prediction = orchestrator.analyze_match(match_id)
if not prediction:
print("⚠️ No prediction")
continue
# Extract Main Pick
main_pick = prediction.get("main_pick") or {}
pick_name = main_pick.get("pick", "")
confidence = main_pick.get("confidence", 0)
odds = main_pick.get("odds", 0)
# Apply Skip Logic
if confidence < MIN_CONF:
print(f"🚫 SKIP (Conf {confidence:.0f}%)")
total_skipped += 1
results.append({"match": f"{home_team} vs {away_team}", "pick": pick_name,
"conf": confidence, "odds": odds, "result": "SKIPPED", "profit": 0})
continue
if odds > 0:
implied_prob = 1.0 / odds
my_prob = confidence / 100.0
if my_prob - implied_prob < -0.03:
print(f"🚫 SKIP (Bad Value)")
total_skipped += 1
results.append({"match": f"{home_team} vs {away_team}", "pick": pick_name,
"conf": confidence, "odds": odds, "result": "SKIPPED", "profit": 0})
continue
# Bet Played
total_played += 1
won = False
# Resolve
pick_clean = str(pick_name).upper()
if pick_clean in ["1", "MS 1", "İY 1"] and home_score > away_score: won = True
elif pick_clean in ["X", "MS X", "İY X"] and home_score == away_score: won = True
elif pick_clean in ["2", "MS 2", "İY 2"] and away_score > home_score: won = True
elif pick_clean in ["1X", "X2"] or ("1X" in pick_clean or "X2" in pick_clean):
if "1X" in pick_clean and home_score >= away_score: won = True
elif "X2" in pick_clean and away_score >= home_score: won = True
elif pick_clean in ["12"] and home_score != away_score: won = True
elif "ÜST" in pick_clean or "OVER" in pick_clean:
line = 2.5
if "1.5" in pick_clean: line = 1.5
elif "3.5" in pick_clean: line = 3.5
if total_goals > line: won = True
elif "ALT" in pick_clean or "UNDER" in pick_clean:
line = 2.5
if "1.5" in pick_clean: line = 1.5
elif "3.5" in pick_clean: line = 3.5
if total_goals < line: won = True
elif "VAR" in pick_clean and home_score > 0 and away_score > 0: won = True
elif "YOK" in pick_clean and (home_score == 0 or away_score == 0): won = True
if won:
total_won += 1
profit = odds - 1.0
print(f"✅ WON ({pick_name} @ {odds:.2f}, +{profit:.2f})")
else:
profit = -1.0
print(f"❌ LOST ({pick_name} @ {odds:.2f})")
total_profit += profit
results.append({"match": f"{home_team} vs {away_team}", "pick": pick_name,
"conf": confidence, "odds": odds,
"result": "WON" if won else "LOST", "profit": profit,
"score": f"{home_score}-{away_score}"})
except Exception as e:
print(f"💥 Error: {e}")
elapsed = time.time() - start_time
# ─── DETAILED REPORT ───
print("\n" + "="*80)
print("📈 DETAILED BACKTEST RESULTS")
print(f"⏱️ Time: {elapsed:.1f}s")
print("="*80)
print(f"📊 Total Matches: {len(rows)}")
print(f"🚫 Skipped: {total_skipped}")
print(f"🎲 Played: {total_played}")
print(f"✅ Won: {total_won}")
print(f"💀 Lost: {total_played - total_won}")
print(f"💰 Profit: {total_profit:+.2f} units")
if total_played > 0:
win_rate = (total_won / total_played) * 100
roi = (total_profit / total_played) * 100
print(f"📊 Win Rate: {win_rate:.1f}%")
print(f"📊 ROI: {roi:.1f}%")
if roi > 0:
print("🟢 STRATEGY IS PROFITABLE!")
else:
print("🔴 STRATEGY IS LOSING")
# ─── TABLE OF ALL RESULTS ───
print("\n" + "="*80)
print("📋 DETAILED MATCH RESULTS")
print("="*80)
print(f"{'Match':<40} {'Pick':<15} {'Conf':<6} {'Odds':<6} {'Result':<8} {'Score':<6}")
print("-"*80)
for r in results:
match_str = r['match'][:38]
pick_str = str(r['pick'])[:13]
conf_str = f"{r['conf']:.0f}%"
odds_str = f"{r['odds']:.2f}" if r['odds'] > 0 else "N/A"
res_str = r['result']
score_str = r.get('score', '')
# Color coding
if res_str == "WON": res_display = f"✅ {res_str}"
elif res_str == "LOST": res_display = f"❌ {res_str}"
else: res_display = f"🚫 {res_str}"
print(f"{match_str:<40} {pick_str:<15} {conf_str:<6} {odds_str:<6} {res_display:<12} {score_str:<6}")
cur.close()
conn.close()
if __name__ == "__main__":
run_detailed_backtest()