Add backtest pipeline, betting_brain filters, score coherence + social v3

betting_brain.py: - HARD_MIN_SAMPLES=50 floor for calibrator bypass - ev_edge < 0 + >= 0.20 hard vetoes - BTTS muted (grid search found no profitable config) - Per-market optimal envelopes (MS, OU25) - Score coherence filter: main_pick must agree with score prediction - HTFT reversal cross-check for MS picks feature_builder.py / data_loader.py: - Real home/away_position from data (was hardcoded 10) - Cup detection wired into UpsetEngine - _estimate_league_position with 300-day season filter New scripts: - diagnostic_backtest.py: per-bet diagnostic backtest with loss patterns - optimize_filters.py: grid search per-market optimal thresholds - analyze_backtest_csv.py: root-cause hypothesis testing on CSV - compare_backtests.py: side-by-side validation with verdict - test_score_coherence.py: smoke test for coherence filter (20/20 pass) Reports: - diagnostic_backtest_20260525_024437 (50-match smoke) - diagnostic_backtest_20260525_035649 (1000-match in-sample) - filter_optimization_patch.json (grid search winners per market) Social poster v3: - satori + resvg HTML/CSS rendering pipeline - Twemoji football/basketball + flag SVGs - caption SEO: 12 curated hashtags per post - image SEO: descriptive filenames + .json metadata sidecar - /health, /preview-png, /run-now endpoints Docs: - mds/SESSION_HANDOFF.md: full session state for cross-machine continuity - mds/SOCIAL_POSTER_SETUP.md: API keys + test commands Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-25 20:43:28 +03:00
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+==============================================================================
+DIAGNOSTIC BACKTEST REPORT
+==============================================================================
+Generated:      2026-05-25T03:56:49
+Sample window:  start=-14d, end=now
+Max matches:    1000
+Excluded days:  ['2026-04-29', '2026-05-03']
+
+OVERALL
+------------------------------------------------------------------------------
+  n_total                  : 1000
+  n_playable_settled       : 524
+  wins                     : 287
+  losses                   : 237
+  hit_rate_pct             : 54.77
+  unit_profit              : -17.897
+  staked                   : 107.0
+  roi_pct                  : -16.73
+
+PER MARKET
+------------------------------------------------------------------------------
+  market        n    hit%    profit    roi%
+  OU25        236   56.78    -6.271  -12.93
+  BTTS        205   51.22     -8.89  -21.63
+  MS           76   57.89    -2.396  -14.98
+  DC            4   100.0      0.26    32.5
+  OU35          3     0.0      -0.6  -100.0
+
+PER CALIBRATED CONFIDENCE BAND
+------------------------------------------------------------------------------
+  band            n    hit%    roi%
+  45-50           8    50.0  -20.11
+  50-55           5    40.0  -49.23
+  55-60          52   53.85   -6.36
+  60-65          33   48.48  -24.39
+  65-70         420   55.48  -16.52
+  70-80           6   66.67  -33.75
+
+PER ODDS BAND
+------------------------------------------------------------------------------
+  band            n    hit%    roi%
+  1.3-1.5       241   61.41  -15.12
+  1.5-1.8       221   52.04  -15.63
+  1.8-2.2        56   41.07  -22.86
+  2.2-3.0         5    20.0  -44.15
+  3.0-5.0         1     0.0  -100.0
+
+LEAGUE vs CUP
+------------------------------------------------------------------------------
+  league   n= 524 hit=54.77% roi=-16.73%
+
+LOSS DIAGNOSTICS
+------------------------------------------------------------------------------
+  total losses:        237
+  total lost units:    -48.7
+  By market:           [('OU25', 102), ('BTTS', 100), ('MS', 32), ('OU35', 3)]
+  Loss patterns (count, % of losses):
+    high_htft_reversal_prob (>=0.20)                           0 (0.0%)
+    cup_match                                                  0 (0.0%)
+    low_league_reliability (<0.45)                            42 (17.72%)
+    v27_disagree                                              60 (25.32%)
+    trap_market_flagged                                       81 (34.18%)
+    low_calibrated_conf (<55)                                  7 (2.95%)
+    high_odds_underdog (>=2.5)                                 4 (1.69%)
+    low_data_quality (<0.55)                                  40 (16.88%)
+    high_risk_level                                           20 (8.44%)
+    inferred_features                                          0 (0.0%)
+  Top betting_brain issues seen in losses:
+    triple_value_not_confirmed                              230
+    trap_market_market_overpriced                           81
+    low_reliability_league                                  40
+    v25_v27_soft_disagreement                               10
+    engine_consensus_disagree                               5
+    historical_sample_too_low                               3
+    very_low_reliability_league                             2
+    htft_reversal_prob_minor=0.13                           1
+  Top betting_brain vetoes (in losses — i.e. veto fired but bet still went through value-sniper override):
+
+RECOMMENDATIONS
+------------------------------------------------------------------------------
+  • [raise_confidence_threshold]
+      confidence_band: 65-70
+      evidence: n=420, roi=-16.52%
+      suggested_fix: Raise MIN_BET_SCORE or market_min_conf above 65
+
+==============================================================================