vv

src/tasks/data-fetcher.task.ts

@@ -399,6 +399,12 @@ export class DataFetcherTask {
         const closingOddsSnapshot = await this.getClosingOddsSnapshot(
           row.matchId,
         );
+        // ── Per-market settlement (V31e forward-test) ────────────────
+        // Score EVERY captured market (not just main_pick) against reality,
+        // so the admin Model Performance page can compute per-market
+        // calibration (model% → actual%) and ROI. won=null → push (skip).
+        const marketsSettled = this.settleAllMarkets(row);
+
         const settlementSummary = {
           settled_at: new Date().toISOString(),
           model_version: row.engineVersion,
@@ -413,6 +419,7 @@ export class DataFetcherTask {
             away: row.htScoreAway,
           },
           closing_odds_snapshot: closingOddsSnapshot,
+          markets_settled: marketsSettled,
         };
 
         await this.prisma.$executeRawUnsafe(
@@ -538,6 +545,64 @@ export class DataFetcherTask {
     };
   }
 
+  /**
+   * V31e forward-test: settle EVERY captured market (payload_summary.markets_full)
+   * against the final score. Produces one compact record per market with its
+   * shown probability, the real outcome, and flat profit — the raw material for
+   * per-market calibration (model% vs actual%) on the admin dashboard.
+   */
+  private settleAllMarkets(
+    row: PendingPredictionRunForSettlement,
+  ): Array<Record<string, unknown>> {
+    const summary = this.asRecord(row.payloadSummary);
+    const markets = Array.isArray(summary.markets_full)
+      ? (summary.markets_full as unknown[])
+      : [];
+    const out: Array<Record<string, unknown>> = [];
+
+    for (const raw of markets) {
+      const m = this.asRecord(raw);
+      const market = typeof m.market === "string" ? m.market : "";
+      const pick = typeof m.pick === "string" ? m.pick : "";
+      if (!market || !pick) continue;
+
+      const won = this.isPredictionPickWon({
+        market,
+        pick,
+        scoreHome: row.scoreHome,
+        scoreAway: row.scoreAway,
+        htScoreHome: row.htScoreHome,
+        htScoreAway: row.htScoreAway,
+      });
+      if (won === null) continue; // push / unresolvable → exclude from stats
+
+      const odds = Number(m.odds || 0);
+      const hasOdds = Number.isFinite(odds) && odds > 1.01;
+      out.push({
+        market,
+        pick,
+        won,
+        // shown probability for calibration (0–100). Prefer calibrated_confidence.
+        shown_confidence:
+          m.calibrated_confidence != null
+            ? Number(m.calibrated_confidence)
+            : m.model_probability != null
+              ? Number(m.model_probability) * 100
+              : null,
+        model_probability:
+          m.model_probability != null ? Number(m.model_probability) : null,
+        odds: hasOdds ? odds : null,
+        playable: m.playable === true,
+        bet_grade: typeof m.bet_grade === "string" ? m.bet_grade : null,
+        action: typeof m.action === "string" ? m.action : null,
+        value_tier: typeof m.value_tier === "string" ? m.value_tier : null,
+        // flat 1u profit if a real price existed (for per-market ROI)
+        flat_profit: hasOdds ? Number((won ? odds - 1 : -1).toFixed(4)) : null,
+      });
+    }
+    return out;
+  }
+
   private isPredictionPickWon(input: {
     market: string;
     pick: string;