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ai-engine/utils/league_confidence.py

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+"""
+League Confidence Loader
+========================
+Loads pre-computed per-league CONFIDENCE labels from
+data/league_confidence.json. Called once at orchestrator startup.
+
+Unlike league_reliability (odds-calibration), this reflects the model's
+*backtested betting performance* per league: a label of high/medium/low/unknown
+derived from BET ROI **and** sample size together, so a few lucky bets in a
+thin league don't earn an undeserved "high" badge.
+
+Label rule (from scripts that build the artifact):
+    high    : bet_roi > +10%  AND bet_n >= 20
+    low     : bet_roi < -5%   AND bet_n >= 15
+    unknown : bet_n < 10  (too few bets to judge)
+    medium  : everything else
+
+Usage:
+    from utils.league_confidence import load_league_confidence
+    lookup = load_league_confidence()
+    info = lookup.get(league_id)   # {"label","bet_roi","bet_n","hit","name"} or None
+"""
+
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import json
+import os
+from typing import Dict, Any
+
+
+_DATA_FILE = os.path.join(
+    os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__)),
+    "..",
+    "data",
+    "league_confidence.json",
+)
+
+
+def load_league_confidence() -> Dict[str, Dict[str, Any]]:
+    """
+    Returns dict mapping league_id → {label, bet_roi, bet_n, hit, name}.
+    Falls back to empty dict if the file is missing/corrupt — callers then
+    treat every league as 'unknown' (no badge), never crashing.
+    """
+    if not os.path.isfile(_DATA_FILE):
+        print(
+            f"⚠️  league_confidence.json not found at {_DATA_FILE}. "
+            "All leagues will show as 'unknown' confidence."
+        )
+        return {}
+
+    try:
+        with open(_DATA_FILE, "r", encoding="utf-8") as f:
+            data = json.load(f)
+        lookup: Dict[str, Dict[str, Any]] = data.get("lookup", {})
+        print(f"✅ Loaded league confidence labels for {len(lookup)} leagues")
+        return lookup
+    except (json.JSONDecodeError, KeyError, TypeError) as exc:
+        print(f"⚠️  Failed to parse league_confidence.json: {exc}")
+        return {}