vv

ai-engine/services/orchestrator/market_board.py

@@ -86,6 +86,28 @@ POST_CAL_TRUST: Dict[str, float] = {
 
 
 class MarketBoardMixin:
+    def _league_confidence_for(self, league_id: Optional[str]) -> Optional[Dict[str, Any]]:
+        """Return the backtest-derived confidence record for a league, or None.
+
+        Shape: {"label": high|medium|low, "bet_roi": float, "bet_n": int,
+        "hit": float}. None → league absent or too few bets ('unknown') → FE
+        shows no badge. Never raises (missing artifact = graceful None)."""
+        if not league_id:
+            return None
+        lookup = getattr(self, "league_confidence", None) or {}
+        info = lookup.get(str(league_id))
+        if not isinstance(info, dict):
+            return None
+        label = info.get("label")
+        if label in (None, "unknown"):
+            return None
+        return {
+            "label": label,
+            "bet_roi": info.get("bet_roi"),
+            "bet_n": info.get("bet_n"),
+            "hit": info.get("hit"),
+        }
+
     def _build_prediction_package(
         self,
         data: MatchData,
@@ -320,6 +342,10 @@ class MarketBoardMixin:
                 "home_team": data.home_team_name,
                 "away_team": data.away_team_name,
                 "league": data.league_name,
+                "league_id": data.league_id,
+                # Backtest-derived per-league confidence (ROI + sample size).
+                # None when the league has too little data to judge → FE shows no badge.
+                "league_confidence": self._league_confidence_for(data.league_id),
                 "match_date_ms": data.match_date_ms,
                 "sport": data.sport,
                 # Live snapshot — match_commentary uses this to detect upset-in-progress

ai-engine/services/single_match_orchestrator.py

@@ -57,6 +57,7 @@ from services.v26_shadow_engine import V26ShadowEngine, get_v26_shadow_engine
 from services.match_commentary import generate_match_commentary
 from utils.top_leagues import load_top_league_ids
 from utils.league_reliability import load_league_reliability
+from utils.league_confidence import load_league_confidence
 from config.config_loader import build_threshold_dict, get_threshold_default, get_config
 from models.calibration import get_calibrator
 
@@ -171,6 +172,7 @@ class SingleMatchOrchestrator(
         self.engine_mode = str(os.getenv("AI_ENGINE_MODE", "v28-pro-max")).strip().lower()
         self.top_league_ids = load_top_league_ids()
         self.league_reliability = load_league_reliability()
+        self.league_confidence = load_league_confidence()
         self.enrichment = FeatureEnrichmentService()
         self.odds_band_analyzer = OddsBandAnalyzer()
         # ── Market Thresholds (loaded from config/market_thresholds.json) ──