wow

ai-engine/services/orchestrator/market_board.py

@@ -57,8 +57,9 @@ from utils.top_leagues import load_top_league_ids
 from utils.league_reliability import load_league_reliability
 from config.config_loader import build_threshold_dict, get_threshold_default
 from models.calibration import get_calibrator, get_final_recalibrator
-from models.market_anchor import devig, apply_home_correction
+from models.market_anchor import devig, apply_corrections
 from models.score_matrix import build_calibrated_score_package
+from models.live_matrix import build_live_projection, estimate_minute
 
 # ── V30: Post-calibration trust factors ─────────────────────────────
 # Controls how much to trust isotonic calibrator vs raw model output.
@@ -372,6 +373,12 @@ class MarketBoardMixin:
         # 13.1%, top-5 coverage 51%, per-score gaps <1.2pt.
         cal_score = self._build_calibrated_score(market_board)
 
+        # V38: while the match is LIVE, also project score/minute-conditioned
+        # probabilities (P(side scores again), live 1X2, comeback, scenarios).
+        # OOS-validated on 70,410 reconstructed live moments: ECE 0.5-0.8%;
+        # "one-goal lead at 80'" case: said 21.7% vs actual 23.0%.
+        live_projection = self._build_live_projection(market_board, data)
+
         # Determine simulation mode for the response
         _resp_status = str(data.status or "").upper()
         _resp_state  = str(data.state  or "").upper()
@@ -446,6 +453,9 @@ class MarketBoardMixin:
                 }
             ),
             "market_board": market_board,
+            # V38: score/minute-aware live probabilities (None when not live or
+            # no real odds). FE can render "deplasman gol atar: %X / dönme: %Y".
+            "live_projection": live_projection,
             "others": {
                 "handicap": prediction.handicap_pick,
                 "cards": {
@@ -1115,10 +1125,10 @@ class MarketBoardMixin:
             val = self._real_market_odds(odds, key)
             return val if val > 1.01 else None
 
-        # MS (3-way) + home-favourite correction; DC derived from the same vector
+        # MS (3-way) + favourite corrections; DC derived from the same vector
         ms = devig([real("ms_h"), real("ms_d"), real("ms_a")])
         if ms is not None:
-            p1, px, p2 = apply_home_correction(*ms)
+            p1, px, p2 = apply_corrections(*ms)
             if "MS" in market_board:
                 self._set_board(market_board, "MS", {"1": p1, "X": px, "2": p2})
             if "DC" in market_board:
@@ -1305,6 +1315,43 @@ class MarketBoardMixin:
             "scenario_top5": pkg["scenario_top5"],
         }
 
+    def _build_live_projection(
+        self,
+        market_board: Dict[str, Any],
+        data: MatchData,
+    ) -> Optional[Dict[str, Any]]:
+        """V38: score/minute-conditioned live projection from the anchored
+        probabilities. None unless the match is live, both MS and OU25 were
+        anchored (real odds) and a minute estimate exists. Same kill-switch."""
+        if os.environ.get("MARKET_ANCHOR_CAL", "1") == "0":
+            return None
+        if not self._is_live_match(data):
+            return None
+        ms = market_board.get("MS") or {}
+        ou = market_board.get("OU25") or {}
+        if (
+            ms.get("calibration_source") != "market_anchor_v35"
+            or ou.get("calibration_source") != "market_anchor_v35"
+        ):
+            return None
+        minute = estimate_minute(
+            getattr(data, "match_date_ms", None), int(time.time() * 1000)
+        )
+        if minute is None:
+            return None
+        try:
+            return build_live_projection(
+                float(ms["probs"]["1"]),
+                float(ms["probs"]["X"]),
+                float(ms["probs"]["2"]),
+                float(ou["probs"]["over"]),
+                int(data.current_score_home or 0),
+                int(data.current_score_away or 0),
+                minute,
+            )
+        except (KeyError, TypeError, ValueError, ZeroDivisionError, OverflowError):
+            return None
+
     def _build_market_rows(
         self,
         data: MatchData,