wow

2026-06-11 00:25:45 +03:00
parent bb911176df
commit 4c137fbab6
9 changed files with 1246 additions and 6 deletions
@@ -0,0 +1,131 @@
+{
+  "version": "2026-06-10T23:11:49",
+  "fitted_on": {
+    "days": 540,
+    "test_days": 90,
+    "n_train": 64603,
+    "n_test": 14450
+  },
+  "validated": {
+    "ece_home": {
+      "raw": 0.01803,
+      "active_before": 0.01312,
+      "candidate_oos": 0.01301
+    },
+    "ece_away": {
+      "raw": 0.01234,
+      "active_before": 0.01234,
+      "candidate_oos": 0.00845
+    }
+  },
+  "gates": {
+    "min_n": 1500,
+    "shrink": 0.5,
+    "clip": 0.05,
+    "min_delta": 0.004
+  },
+  "corrections": {
+    "ms_home": [
+      {
+        "lo": 0.05,
+        "hi": 0.15,
+        "delta": 0.0,
+        "n": 2124,
+        "raw_gap": -0.0072
+      },
+      {
+        "lo": 0.15,
+        "hi": 0.25,
+        "delta": 0.0,
+        "n": 6476,
+        "raw_gap": -0.0031
+      },
+      {
+        "lo": 0.25,
+        "hi": 0.35,
+        "delta": 0.0,
+        "n": 12565,
+        "raw_gap": -0.0018
+      },
+      {
+        "lo": 0.35,
+        "hi": 0.45,
+        "delta": 0.0,
+        "n": 16431,
+        "raw_gap": 0.006
+      },
+      {
+        "lo": 0.45,
+        "hi": 0.55,
+        "delta": 0.0124,
+        "n": 12995,
+        "raw_gap": 0.0248
+      },
+      {
+        "lo": 0.55,
+        "hi": 0.65,
+        "delta": 0.0154,
+        "n": 8479,
+        "raw_gap": 0.0307
+      },
+      {
+        "lo": 0.65,
+        "hi": 0.75,
+        "delta": 0.0203,
+        "n": 4638,
+        "raw_gap": 0.0407
+      }
+    ],
+    "ms_away": [
+      {
+        "lo": 0.05,
+        "hi": 0.15,
+        "delta": -0.0077,
+        "n": 6762,
+        "raw_gap": -0.0154
+      },
+      {
+        "lo": 0.15,
+        "hi": 0.25,
+        "delta": -0.0048,
+        "n": 16211,
+        "raw_gap": -0.0097
+      },
+      {
+        "lo": 0.25,
+        "hi": 0.35,
+        "delta": 0.0,
+        "n": 18440,
+        "raw_gap": -0.002
+      },
+      {
+        "lo": 0.35,
+        "hi": 0.45,
+        "delta": 0.009,
+        "n": 12061,
+        "raw_gap": 0.0181
+      },
+      {
+        "lo": 0.45,
+        "hi": 0.55,
+        "delta": 0.0116,
+        "n": 5930,
+        "raw_gap": 0.0231
+      },
+      {
+        "lo": 0.55,
+        "hi": 0.65,
+        "delta": 0.0199,
+        "n": 3287,
+        "raw_gap": 0.0399
+      },
+      {
+        "lo": 0.65,
+        "hi": 0.75,
+        "delta": 0.0295,
+        "n": 1580,
+        "raw_gap": 0.0589
+      }
+    ]
+  }
+}