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Fahri Can
2026-04-21 16:53:56 +03:00
parent 1346924387
commit 2ccd6831eb
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ai-engine/reports/backtest_v26_shadow_htft_upset.csv
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match_id,date,league,match,ht_score,final_score,strategy,market,pick,odds,playable,confidence,result,counted_in_roi,profit_flat,resolution_note,source,reversal_pick,reversal_prob,favorite_gap,favorite_odd,support_score,odds_band_score,odds_band_label,league_reversal_rate,league_strict_rev_rate,referee_strict_rev_rate,surprise_score,reason_codes,pick_reason
b6uzz042mizu0dqpci538z4lw,2025-09-06,Süper Kupa,V. Sarsfield vs C. Cordoba,0-0,2-0,v25_aggressive,HTFT,2/1,34.5,True,21.0,LOST,True,-1.0,actual=X/1,v25.aggressive_pick,2/1,,,,,,,,,,,,
b6uzz042mizu0dqpci538z4lw,2025-09-06,Süper Kupa,V. Sarsfield vs C. Cordoba,0-0,2-0,v26_aggressive,HTFT,1/1,3.26,True,16.0,LOST,True,-1.0,actual=X/1,v26.aggressive_pick,1/1,,,,,,,,,,,,
ytsc38rm4j22govgwo3as6j8,2025-09-06,DK Elemeler,Avusturya vs G. Kıbrıs Rum Kesimi,0-0,1-0,v25_aggressive,HTFT,X/1,4.01,True,11.4,WON,True,3.01,actual=X/1,v25.aggressive_pick,X/1,,,,,,,,,,,,
cfar57gsu6hy770n7e58u8duc,2025-09-06,Eerste Divisie,Cambuur vs Willem II,0-1,2-2,v25_aggressive,HTFT,2/1,20.7,True,15.6,LOST,True,-1.0,actual=2/X,v25.aggressive_pick,2/1,,,,,,,,,,,,
cfar57gsu6hy770n7e58u8duc,2025-09-06,Eerste Divisie,Cambuur vs Willem II,0-1,2-2,v26_aggressive,HTFT,1/1,2.13,True,14.4,LOST,True,-1.0,actual=2/X,v26.aggressive_pick,1/1,,,,,,,,,,,,
99r0d7ggi1169dhklo4eroopg,2025-09-06,2. Lig,Bromley vs Gillingham,2-0,2-2,v25_aggressive,HTFT,2/1,30.5,True,25.6,LOST,True,-1.0,actual=1/X,v25.aggressive_pick,2/1,,,,,,,,,,,,
99r0d7ggi1169dhklo4eroopg,2025-09-06,2. Lig,Bromley vs Gillingham,2-0,2-2,v26_surprise,HTFT,1/2,34.5,False,4.9,LOST,False,0.0,actual=1/X,v26.surprise_pick,1/2,0.0679,1.02,1.92,73.5,0.642,,0.04,0.0,0.0,62.7,"favorite_gap_large,favorite_price_supported,reversal_prob_warm,quality_supports_reversal,favorite_odds_band_reversal_window,favorite_streak_break_window",
99r0d7ggi1169dhklo4eroopg,2025-09-06,2. Lig,Bromley vs Gillingham,2-0,2-2,v26_aggressive,HTFT,1/1,3.16,True,16.1,LOST,True,-1.0,actual=1/X,v26.aggressive_pick,1/1,,,,,,,,,,,,
790qnaweqoyffb5ndxnb4hlas,2025-09-06,Ulusal Lig,Aldershot vs Brackley,1-0,2-2,v25_aggressive,HTFT,X/2,6.07,True,9.0,LOST,True,-1.0,actual=1/X,v25.aggressive_pick,X/2,,,,,,,,,,,,
790qnaweqoyffb5ndxnb4hlas,2025-09-06,Ulusal Lig,Aldershot vs Brackley,1-0,2-2,v26_aggressive,HTFT,2/2,3.8,True,37.1,LOST,True,-1.0,actual=1/X,v26.aggressive_pick,2/2,,,,,,,,,,,,
8808y1x2hmz52k3mr598orqc4,2025-09-06,DK Elemeler,Ermenistan vs Portekiz,0-3,0-5,v25_aggressive,HTFT,X/2,4.03,True,11.6,LOST,True,-1.0,actual=2/2,v25.aggressive_pick,X/2,,,,,,,,,,,,
7gfnwoxqz5o2clin40a85uqdw,2025-09-06,1. Lig,Port Vale vs Leyton Orient,1-2,2-3,v25_aggressive,HTFT,X/1,4.84,True,12.3,LOST,True,-1.0,actual=2/2,v25.aggressive_pick,X/1,,,,,,,,,,,,
7gfnwoxqz5o2clin40a85uqdw,2025-09-06,1. Lig,Port Vale vs Leyton Orient,1-2,2-3,v26_surprise,HTFT,1/2,33.0,False,5.4,LOST,False,0.0,actual=2/2,v26.surprise_pick,1/2,0.0749,0.62,1.97,52.1,0.642,,0.044,0.0,0.0,57.0,"favorite_gap_large,favorite_price_supported,reversal_prob_warm,draw_swing_support,quality_supports_reversal,favorite_odds_band_reversal_window",
7gfnwoxqz5o2clin40a85uqdw,2025-09-06,1. Lig,Port Vale vs Leyton Orient,1-2,2-3,v26_aggressive,HTFT,2/2,4.51,True,17.3,WON,True,3.51,actual=2/2,v26.aggressive_pick,2/2,,,,,,,,,,,,
7fld91ykj1kfuoc8wn4r2frbo,2025-09-06,1. Lig,Lincoln City vs Wigan Ath,2-1,2-2,v25_aggressive,HTFT,X/1,4.7,True,19.2,LOST,True,-1.0,actual=1/X,v25.aggressive_pick,X/1,,,,,,,,,,,,
7fld91ykj1kfuoc8wn4r2frbo,2025-09-06,1. Lig,Lincoln City vs Wigan Ath,2-1,2-2,v26_surprise,HTFT,1/2,34.5,False,7.1,LOST,False,0.0,actual=1/X,v26.surprise_pick,1/2,0.0984,0.71,2.0,61.5,0.642,,0.044,0.0,0.0,61.7,"favorite_gap_large,favorite_price_supported,reversal_prob_hot,upset_risk_detected,quality_supports_reversal,favorite_odds_band_reversal_window",
7fld91ykj1kfuoc8wn4r2frbo,2025-09-06,1. Lig,Lincoln City vs Wigan Ath,2-1,2-2,v26_aggressive,HTFT,1/1,3.36,True,19.5,LOST,True,-1.0,actual=1/X,v26.aggressive_pick,1/1,,,,,,,,,,,,
7i4nhkex1qssyp3x6rsgj03ro,2025-09-06,1. Lig,Wycombe vs Mansfield,1-0,2-0,v25_aggressive,HTFT,X/2,6.92,True,11.1,LOST,True,-1.0,actual=1/1,v25.aggressive_pick,X/2,,,,,,,,,,,,
7i4nhkex1qssyp3x6rsgj03ro,2025-09-06,1. Lig,Wycombe vs Mansfield,1-0,2-0,v26_main_htft,HTFT,2/2,5.22,False,39.9,LOST,False,0.0,actual=1/1,v26.main_pick,,,,,,,,,,,0.0,,
7hagai8xazmsj5exw7idwhhck,2025-09-06,1. Lig,Rotherham vs Exeter City,1-0,1-0,v25_aggressive,HTFT,X/2,6.28,True,6.7,LOST,True,-1.0,actual=1/1,v25.aggressive_pick,X/2,,,,,,,,,,,,
7hagai8xazmsj5exw7idwhhck,2025-09-06,1. Lig,Rotherham vs Exeter City,1-0,1-0,v26_aggressive,HTFT,2/2,4.47,True,29.6,LOST,True,-1.0,actual=1/1,v26.aggressive_pick,2/2,,,,,,,,,,,,
6e37x17qvk0snpokd1698lkb8,2025-09-06,Premiership,Crusaders vs Coleraine,0-3,0-4,v25_aggressive,HTFT,X/2,4.24,True,11.5,LOST,True,-1.0,actual=2/2,v25.aggressive_pick,X/2,,,,,,,,,,,,
6e37x17qvk0snpokd1698lkb8,2025-09-06,Premiership,Crusaders vs Coleraine,0-3,0-4,v26_aggressive,HTFT,2/2,2.32,True,37.7,WON,True,1.32,actual=2/2,v26.aggressive_pick,2/2,,,,,,,,,,,,
6f0fqlafaei9oj8yd9hdi6rdg,2025-09-06,Premiership,Linfield vs Portadown,0-0,3-0,v25_aggressive,HTFT,2/1,23.2,True,18.6,LOST,True,-1.0,actual=X/1,v25.aggressive_pick,2/1,,,,,,,,,,,,
6f0fqlafaei9oj8yd9hdi6rdg,2025-09-06,Premiership,Linfield vs Portadown,0-0,3-0,v26_aggressive,HTFT,1/1,1.74,True,20.4,LOST,True,-1.0,actual=X/1,v26.aggressive_pick,1/1,,,,,,,,,,,,
6dny1bmxcj6shc5382dno2al0,2025-09-06,Premiership,Carrick vs Cliftonville,0-1,1-2,v25_aggressive,HTFT,2/1,30.5,True,14.4,LOST,True,-1.0,actual=2/2,v25.aggressive_pick,2/1,,,,,,,,,,,,
6dny1bmxcj6shc5382dno2al0,2025-09-06,Premiership,Carrick vs Cliftonville,0-1,1-2,v26_surprise,HTFT,2/1,30.5,False,10.1,LOST,False,0.0,actual=2/2,v26.surprise_pick,2/1,0.1401,0.59,1.97,62.8,0.642,,0.0667,0.0,0.0,66.2,"favorite_price_supported,reversal_prob_hot,quality_supports_reversal,favorite_odds_band_reversal_window,league_strict_reversal_prior,draw_pressure_supports_swing",
6dny1bmxcj6shc5382dno2al0,2025-09-06,Premiership,Carrick vs Cliftonville,0-1,1-2,v26_aggressive,HTFT,1/1,4.36,True,14.6,LOST,True,-1.0,actual=2/2,v26.aggressive_pick,1/1,,,,,,,,,,,,
9d9nwo82prx06riy5odgnr190,2025-09-06,2. Lig,Walsall vs Chesterfield,1-0,1-0,v25_aggressive,HTFT,X/2,5.38,True,10.3,LOST,True,-1.0,actual=1/1,v25.aggressive_pick,X/2,,,,,,,,,,,,
9d9nwo82prx06riy5odgnr190,2025-09-06,2. Lig,Walsall vs Chesterfield,1-0,1-0,v26_aggressive,HTFT,2/2,3.78,True,35.1,LOST,True,-1.0,actual=1/1,v26.aggressive_pick,2/2,,,,,,,,,,,,
7dwtx5tr7g66bsqkoc1wos9as,2025-09-06,1. Lig,Bolton vs Wimbledon,1-0,3-0,v25_aggressive,HTFT,X/1,3.76,True,12.1,LOST,True,-1.0,actual=1/1,v25.aggressive_pick,X/1,,,,,,,,,,,,
7dwtx5tr7g66bsqkoc1wos9as,2025-09-06,1. Lig,Bolton vs Wimbledon,1-0,3-0,v26_aggressive,HTFT,1/1,1.81,True,33.3,WON,True,0.81,actual=1/1,v26.aggressive_pick,1/1,,,,,,,,,,,,
7c85gguekhbhadtm7qdbgir6c,2025-09-06,Ulusal Lig,Tamworth vs Eastleigh,0-0,1-0,v25_aggressive,HTFT,1/2,34.5,True,14.1,LOST,True,-1.0,actual=X/1,v25.aggressive_pick,1/2,,,,,,,,,,,,
7c85gguekhbhadtm7qdbgir6c,2025-09-06,Ulusal Lig,Tamworth vs Eastleigh,0-0,1-0,v26_aggressive,HTFT,2/2,5.53,True,14.8,LOST,True,-1.0,actual=X/1,v26.aggressive_pick,2/2,,,,,,,,,,,,
1 match_id date league match ht_score final_score strategy market pick odds playable confidence result counted_in_roi profit_flat resolution_note source reversal_pick reversal_prob favorite_gap favorite_odd support_score odds_band_score odds_band_label league_reversal_rate league_strict_rev_rate referee_strict_rev_rate surprise_score reason_codes pick_reason
2 b6uzz042mizu0dqpci538z4lw 2025-09-06 Süper Kupa V. Sarsfield vs C. Cordoba 0-0 2-0 v25_aggressive HTFT 2/1 34.5 True 21.0 LOST True -1.0 actual=X/1 v25.aggressive_pick 2/1
3 b6uzz042mizu0dqpci538z4lw 2025-09-06 Süper Kupa V. Sarsfield vs C. Cordoba 0-0 2-0 v26_aggressive HTFT 1/1 3.26 True 16.0 LOST True -1.0 actual=X/1 v26.aggressive_pick 1/1
4 ytsc38rm4j22govgwo3as6j8 2025-09-06 DK Elemeler Avusturya vs G. Kıbrıs Rum Kesimi 0-0 1-0 v25_aggressive HTFT X/1 4.01 True 11.4 WON True 3.01 actual=X/1 v25.aggressive_pick X/1
5 cfar57gsu6hy770n7e58u8duc 2025-09-06 Eerste Divisie Cambuur vs Willem II 0-1 2-2 v25_aggressive HTFT 2/1 20.7 True 15.6 LOST True -1.0 actual=2/X v25.aggressive_pick 2/1
6 cfar57gsu6hy770n7e58u8duc 2025-09-06 Eerste Divisie Cambuur vs Willem II 0-1 2-2 v26_aggressive HTFT 1/1 2.13 True 14.4 LOST True -1.0 actual=2/X v26.aggressive_pick 1/1
7 99r0d7ggi1169dhklo4eroopg 2025-09-06 2. Lig Bromley vs Gillingham 2-0 2-2 v25_aggressive HTFT 2/1 30.5 True 25.6 LOST True -1.0 actual=1/X v25.aggressive_pick 2/1
8 99r0d7ggi1169dhklo4eroopg 2025-09-06 2. Lig Bromley vs Gillingham 2-0 2-2 v26_surprise HTFT 1/2 34.5 False 4.9 LOST False 0.0 actual=1/X v26.surprise_pick 1/2 0.0679 1.02 1.92 73.5 0.642 0.04 0.0 0.0 62.7 favorite_gap_large,favorite_price_supported,reversal_prob_warm,quality_supports_reversal,favorite_odds_band_reversal_window,favorite_streak_break_window
9 99r0d7ggi1169dhklo4eroopg 2025-09-06 2. Lig Bromley vs Gillingham 2-0 2-2 v26_aggressive HTFT 1/1 3.16 True 16.1 LOST True -1.0 actual=1/X v26.aggressive_pick 1/1
10 790qnaweqoyffb5ndxnb4hlas 2025-09-06 Ulusal Lig Aldershot vs Brackley 1-0 2-2 v25_aggressive HTFT X/2 6.07 True 9.0 LOST True -1.0 actual=1/X v25.aggressive_pick X/2
11 790qnaweqoyffb5ndxnb4hlas 2025-09-06 Ulusal Lig Aldershot vs Brackley 1-0 2-2 v26_aggressive HTFT 2/2 3.8 True 37.1 LOST True -1.0 actual=1/X v26.aggressive_pick 2/2
12 8808y1x2hmz52k3mr598orqc4 2025-09-06 DK Elemeler Ermenistan vs Portekiz 0-3 0-5 v25_aggressive HTFT X/2 4.03 True 11.6 LOST True -1.0 actual=2/2 v25.aggressive_pick X/2
13 7gfnwoxqz5o2clin40a85uqdw 2025-09-06 1. Lig Port Vale vs Leyton Orient 1-2 2-3 v25_aggressive HTFT X/1 4.84 True 12.3 LOST True -1.0 actual=2/2 v25.aggressive_pick X/1
14 7gfnwoxqz5o2clin40a85uqdw 2025-09-06 1. Lig Port Vale vs Leyton Orient 1-2 2-3 v26_surprise HTFT 1/2 33.0 False 5.4 LOST False 0.0 actual=2/2 v26.surprise_pick 1/2 0.0749 0.62 1.97 52.1 0.642 0.044 0.0 0.0 57.0 favorite_gap_large,favorite_price_supported,reversal_prob_warm,draw_swing_support,quality_supports_reversal,favorite_odds_band_reversal_window
15 7gfnwoxqz5o2clin40a85uqdw 2025-09-06 1. Lig Port Vale vs Leyton Orient 1-2 2-3 v26_aggressive HTFT 2/2 4.51 True 17.3 WON True 3.51 actual=2/2 v26.aggressive_pick 2/2
16 7fld91ykj1kfuoc8wn4r2frbo 2025-09-06 1. Lig Lincoln City vs Wigan Ath 2-1 2-2 v25_aggressive HTFT X/1 4.7 True 19.2 LOST True -1.0 actual=1/X v25.aggressive_pick X/1
17 7fld91ykj1kfuoc8wn4r2frbo 2025-09-06 1. Lig Lincoln City vs Wigan Ath 2-1 2-2 v26_surprise HTFT 1/2 34.5 False 7.1 LOST False 0.0 actual=1/X v26.surprise_pick 1/2 0.0984 0.71 2.0 61.5 0.642 0.044 0.0 0.0 61.7 favorite_gap_large,favorite_price_supported,reversal_prob_hot,upset_risk_detected,quality_supports_reversal,favorite_odds_band_reversal_window
18 7fld91ykj1kfuoc8wn4r2frbo 2025-09-06 1. Lig Lincoln City vs Wigan Ath 2-1 2-2 v26_aggressive HTFT 1/1 3.36 True 19.5 LOST True -1.0 actual=1/X v26.aggressive_pick 1/1
19 7i4nhkex1qssyp3x6rsgj03ro 2025-09-06 1. Lig Wycombe vs Mansfield 1-0 2-0 v25_aggressive HTFT X/2 6.92 True 11.1 LOST True -1.0 actual=1/1 v25.aggressive_pick X/2
20 7i4nhkex1qssyp3x6rsgj03ro 2025-09-06 1. Lig Wycombe vs Mansfield 1-0 2-0 v26_main_htft HTFT 2/2 5.22 False 39.9 LOST False 0.0 actual=1/1 v26.main_pick 0.0
21 7hagai8xazmsj5exw7idwhhck 2025-09-06 1. Lig Rotherham vs Exeter City 1-0 1-0 v25_aggressive HTFT X/2 6.28 True 6.7 LOST True -1.0 actual=1/1 v25.aggressive_pick X/2
22 7hagai8xazmsj5exw7idwhhck 2025-09-06 1. Lig Rotherham vs Exeter City 1-0 1-0 v26_aggressive HTFT 2/2 4.47 True 29.6 LOST True -1.0 actual=1/1 v26.aggressive_pick 2/2
23 6e37x17qvk0snpokd1698lkb8 2025-09-06 Premiership Crusaders vs Coleraine 0-3 0-4 v25_aggressive HTFT X/2 4.24 True 11.5 LOST True -1.0 actual=2/2 v25.aggressive_pick X/2
24 6e37x17qvk0snpokd1698lkb8 2025-09-06 Premiership Crusaders vs Coleraine 0-3 0-4 v26_aggressive HTFT 2/2 2.32 True 37.7 WON True 1.32 actual=2/2 v26.aggressive_pick 2/2
25 6f0fqlafaei9oj8yd9hdi6rdg 2025-09-06 Premiership Linfield vs Portadown 0-0 3-0 v25_aggressive HTFT 2/1 23.2 True 18.6 LOST True -1.0 actual=X/1 v25.aggressive_pick 2/1
26 6f0fqlafaei9oj8yd9hdi6rdg 2025-09-06 Premiership Linfield vs Portadown 0-0 3-0 v26_aggressive HTFT 1/1 1.74 True 20.4 LOST True -1.0 actual=X/1 v26.aggressive_pick 1/1
27 6dny1bmxcj6shc5382dno2al0 2025-09-06 Premiership Carrick vs Cliftonville 0-1 1-2 v25_aggressive HTFT 2/1 30.5 True 14.4 LOST True -1.0 actual=2/2 v25.aggressive_pick 2/1
28 6dny1bmxcj6shc5382dno2al0 2025-09-06 Premiership Carrick vs Cliftonville 0-1 1-2 v26_surprise HTFT 2/1 30.5 False 10.1 LOST False 0.0 actual=2/2 v26.surprise_pick 2/1 0.1401 0.59 1.97 62.8 0.642 0.0667 0.0 0.0 66.2 favorite_price_supported,reversal_prob_hot,quality_supports_reversal,favorite_odds_band_reversal_window,league_strict_reversal_prior,draw_pressure_supports_swing
29 6dny1bmxcj6shc5382dno2al0 2025-09-06 Premiership Carrick vs Cliftonville 0-1 1-2 v26_aggressive HTFT 1/1 4.36 True 14.6 LOST True -1.0 actual=2/2 v26.aggressive_pick 1/1
30 9d9nwo82prx06riy5odgnr190 2025-09-06 2. Lig Walsall vs Chesterfield 1-0 1-0 v25_aggressive HTFT X/2 5.38 True 10.3 LOST True -1.0 actual=1/1 v25.aggressive_pick X/2
31 9d9nwo82prx06riy5odgnr190 2025-09-06 2. Lig Walsall vs Chesterfield 1-0 1-0 v26_aggressive HTFT 2/2 3.78 True 35.1 LOST True -1.0 actual=1/1 v26.aggressive_pick 2/2
32 7dwtx5tr7g66bsqkoc1wos9as 2025-09-06 1. Lig Bolton vs Wimbledon 1-0 3-0 v25_aggressive HTFT X/1 3.76 True 12.1 LOST True -1.0 actual=1/1 v25.aggressive_pick X/1
33 7dwtx5tr7g66bsqkoc1wos9as 2025-09-06 1. Lig Bolton vs Wimbledon 1-0 3-0 v26_aggressive HTFT 1/1 1.81 True 33.3 WON True 0.81 actual=1/1 v26.aggressive_pick 1/1
34 7c85gguekhbhadtm7qdbgir6c 2025-09-06 Ulusal Lig Tamworth vs Eastleigh 0-0 1-0 v25_aggressive HTFT 1/2 34.5 True 14.1 LOST True -1.0 actual=X/1 v25.aggressive_pick 1/2
35 7c85gguekhbhadtm7qdbgir6c 2025-09-06 Ulusal Lig Tamworth vs Eastleigh 0-0 1-0 v26_aggressive HTFT 2/2 5.53 True 14.8 LOST True -1.0 actual=X/1 v26.aggressive_pick 2/2