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Fahri Can
2026-04-21 16:53:56 +03:00
parent 1346924387
commit 2ccd6831eb
26 changed files with 430403 additions and 3 deletions
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ai-engine/reports/backtest_v26_shadow.json
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"v25_main": null,
"v26_main": "2"
},
{
"match_id": "bxcnq91mnr9f6bhicdxgzbims",
"v25": {
"playable_count": 0.0,
"avg_edge": 0.0,
"avg_confidence": 0.0
},
"v26": {
"playable_count": 0.0,
"avg_edge": 0.0,
"avg_confidence": 0.0
},
"v25_main": null,
"v26_main": "1.5 \u00dcst"
},
{
"match_id": "dueticp36nbckn2pnpnt6az8",
"v25": {
"playable_count": 0.0,
"avg_edge": 0.0,
"avg_confidence": 0.0
},
"v26": {
"playable_count": 0.0,
"avg_edge": 0.0,
"avg_confidence": 0.0
},
"v25_main": null,
"v26_main": "X"
},
{
"match_id": "5m9do9pcggnl0tgmeolvnph5g",
"v25": {
"playable_count": 0.0,
"avg_edge": 0.0,
"avg_confidence": 0.0
},
"v26": {
"playable_count": 1.0,
"avg_edge": 0.6914,
"avg_confidence": 61.3
},
"v25_main": null,
"v26_main": "1"
},
{
"match_id": "avu5vzpdi1wy7mrneodb3gw7o",
"v25": {
"playable_count": 0.0,
"avg_edge": 0.0,
"avg_confidence": 0.0
},
"v26": {
"playable_count": 1.0,
"avg_edge": 1.1608,
"avg_confidence": 78.3
},
"v25_main": null,
"v26_main": "1"
}
]
ai-engine/reports/backtest_v26_shadow_htft_upset.csv
+35
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@@ -0,0 +1,35 @@
match_id,date,league,match,ht_score,final_score,strategy,market,pick,odds,playable,confidence,result,counted_in_roi,profit_flat,resolution_note,source,reversal_pick,reversal_prob,favorite_gap,favorite_odd,support_score,odds_band_score,odds_band_label,league_reversal_rate,league_strict_rev_rate,referee_strict_rev_rate,surprise_score,reason_codes,pick_reason
b6uzz042mizu0dqpci538z4lw,2025-09-06,Süper Kupa,V. Sarsfield vs C. Cordoba,0-0,2-0,v25_aggressive,HTFT,2/1,34.5,True,21.0,LOST,True,-1.0,actual=X/1,v25.aggressive_pick,2/1,,,,,,,,,,,,
b6uzz042mizu0dqpci538z4lw,2025-09-06,Süper Kupa,V. Sarsfield vs C. Cordoba,0-0,2-0,v26_aggressive,HTFT,1/1,3.26,True,16.0,LOST,True,-1.0,actual=X/1,v26.aggressive_pick,1/1,,,,,,,,,,,,
ytsc38rm4j22govgwo3as6j8,2025-09-06,DK Elemeler,Avusturya vs G. Kıbrıs Rum Kesimi,0-0,1-0,v25_aggressive,HTFT,X/1,4.01,True,11.4,WON,True,3.01,actual=X/1,v25.aggressive_pick,X/1,,,,,,,,,,,,
cfar57gsu6hy770n7e58u8duc,2025-09-06,Eerste Divisie,Cambuur vs Willem II,0-1,2-2,v25_aggressive,HTFT,2/1,20.7,True,15.6,LOST,True,-1.0,actual=2/X,v25.aggressive_pick,2/1,,,,,,,,,,,,
cfar57gsu6hy770n7e58u8duc,2025-09-06,Eerste Divisie,Cambuur vs Willem II,0-1,2-2,v26_aggressive,HTFT,1/1,2.13,True,14.4,LOST,True,-1.0,actual=2/X,v26.aggressive_pick,1/1,,,,,,,,,,,,
99r0d7ggi1169dhklo4eroopg,2025-09-06,2. Lig,Bromley vs Gillingham,2-0,2-2,v25_aggressive,HTFT,2/1,30.5,True,25.6,LOST,True,-1.0,actual=1/X,v25.aggressive_pick,2/1,,,,,,,,,,,,
99r0d7ggi1169dhklo4eroopg,2025-09-06,2. Lig,Bromley vs Gillingham,2-0,2-2,v26_surprise,HTFT,1/2,34.5,False,4.9,LOST,False,0.0,actual=1/X,v26.surprise_pick,1/2,0.0679,1.02,1.92,73.5,0.642,,0.04,0.0,0.0,62.7,"favorite_gap_large,favorite_price_supported,reversal_prob_warm,quality_supports_reversal,favorite_odds_band_reversal_window,favorite_streak_break_window",
99r0d7ggi1169dhklo4eroopg,2025-09-06,2. Lig,Bromley vs Gillingham,2-0,2-2,v26_aggressive,HTFT,1/1,3.16,True,16.1,LOST,True,-1.0,actual=1/X,v26.aggressive_pick,1/1,,,,,,,,,,,,
790qnaweqoyffb5ndxnb4hlas,2025-09-06,Ulusal Lig,Aldershot vs Brackley,1-0,2-2,v25_aggressive,HTFT,X/2,6.07,True,9.0,LOST,True,-1.0,actual=1/X,v25.aggressive_pick,X/2,,,,,,,,,,,,
790qnaweqoyffb5ndxnb4hlas,2025-09-06,Ulusal Lig,Aldershot vs Brackley,1-0,2-2,v26_aggressive,HTFT,2/2,3.8,True,37.1,LOST,True,-1.0,actual=1/X,v26.aggressive_pick,2/2,,,,,,,,,,,,
8808y1x2hmz52k3mr598orqc4,2025-09-06,DK Elemeler,Ermenistan vs Portekiz,0-3,0-5,v25_aggressive,HTFT,X/2,4.03,True,11.6,LOST,True,-1.0,actual=2/2,v25.aggressive_pick,X/2,,,,,,,,,,,,
7gfnwoxqz5o2clin40a85uqdw,2025-09-06,1. Lig,Port Vale vs Leyton Orient,1-2,2-3,v25_aggressive,HTFT,X/1,4.84,True,12.3,LOST,True,-1.0,actual=2/2,v25.aggressive_pick,X/1,,,,,,,,,,,,
7gfnwoxqz5o2clin40a85uqdw,2025-09-06,1. Lig,Port Vale vs Leyton Orient,1-2,2-3,v26_surprise,HTFT,1/2,33.0,False,5.4,LOST,False,0.0,actual=2/2,v26.surprise_pick,1/2,0.0749,0.62,1.97,52.1,0.642,,0.044,0.0,0.0,57.0,"favorite_gap_large,favorite_price_supported,reversal_prob_warm,draw_swing_support,quality_supports_reversal,favorite_odds_band_reversal_window",
7gfnwoxqz5o2clin40a85uqdw,2025-09-06,1. Lig,Port Vale vs Leyton Orient,1-2,2-3,v26_aggressive,HTFT,2/2,4.51,True,17.3,WON,True,3.51,actual=2/2,v26.aggressive_pick,2/2,,,,,,,,,,,,
7fld91ykj1kfuoc8wn4r2frbo,2025-09-06,1. Lig,Lincoln City vs Wigan Ath,2-1,2-2,v25_aggressive,HTFT,X/1,4.7,True,19.2,LOST,True,-1.0,actual=1/X,v25.aggressive_pick,X/1,,,,,,,,,,,,
7fld91ykj1kfuoc8wn4r2frbo,2025-09-06,1. Lig,Lincoln City vs Wigan Ath,2-1,2-2,v26_surprise,HTFT,1/2,34.5,False,7.1,LOST,False,0.0,actual=1/X,v26.surprise_pick,1/2,0.0984,0.71,2.0,61.5,0.642,,0.044,0.0,0.0,61.7,"favorite_gap_large,favorite_price_supported,reversal_prob_hot,upset_risk_detected,quality_supports_reversal,favorite_odds_band_reversal_window",
7fld91ykj1kfuoc8wn4r2frbo,2025-09-06,1. Lig,Lincoln City vs Wigan Ath,2-1,2-2,v26_aggressive,HTFT,1/1,3.36,True,19.5,LOST,True,-1.0,actual=1/X,v26.aggressive_pick,1/1,,,,,,,,,,,,
7i4nhkex1qssyp3x6rsgj03ro,2025-09-06,1. Lig,Wycombe vs Mansfield,1-0,2-0,v25_aggressive,HTFT,X/2,6.92,True,11.1,LOST,True,-1.0,actual=1/1,v25.aggressive_pick,X/2,,,,,,,,,,,,
7i4nhkex1qssyp3x6rsgj03ro,2025-09-06,1. Lig,Wycombe vs Mansfield,1-0,2-0,v26_main_htft,HTFT,2/2,5.22,False,39.9,LOST,False,0.0,actual=1/1,v26.main_pick,,,,,,,,,,,0.0,,
7hagai8xazmsj5exw7idwhhck,2025-09-06,1. Lig,Rotherham vs Exeter City,1-0,1-0,v25_aggressive,HTFT,X/2,6.28,True,6.7,LOST,True,-1.0,actual=1/1,v25.aggressive_pick,X/2,,,,,,,,,,,,
7hagai8xazmsj5exw7idwhhck,2025-09-06,1. Lig,Rotherham vs Exeter City,1-0,1-0,v26_aggressive,HTFT,2/2,4.47,True,29.6,LOST,True,-1.0,actual=1/1,v26.aggressive_pick,2/2,,,,,,,,,,,,
6e37x17qvk0snpokd1698lkb8,2025-09-06,Premiership,Crusaders vs Coleraine,0-3,0-4,v25_aggressive,HTFT,X/2,4.24,True,11.5,LOST,True,-1.0,actual=2/2,v25.aggressive_pick,X/2,,,,,,,,,,,,
6e37x17qvk0snpokd1698lkb8,2025-09-06,Premiership,Crusaders vs Coleraine,0-3,0-4,v26_aggressive,HTFT,2/2,2.32,True,37.7,WON,True,1.32,actual=2/2,v26.aggressive_pick,2/2,,,,,,,,,,,,
6f0fqlafaei9oj8yd9hdi6rdg,2025-09-06,Premiership,Linfield vs Portadown,0-0,3-0,v25_aggressive,HTFT,2/1,23.2,True,18.6,LOST,True,-1.0,actual=X/1,v25.aggressive_pick,2/1,,,,,,,,,,,,
6f0fqlafaei9oj8yd9hdi6rdg,2025-09-06,Premiership,Linfield vs Portadown,0-0,3-0,v26_aggressive,HTFT,1/1,1.74,True,20.4,LOST,True,-1.0,actual=X/1,v26.aggressive_pick,1/1,,,,,,,,,,,,
6dny1bmxcj6shc5382dno2al0,2025-09-06,Premiership,Carrick vs Cliftonville,0-1,1-2,v25_aggressive,HTFT,2/1,30.5,True,14.4,LOST,True,-1.0,actual=2/2,v25.aggressive_pick,2/1,,,,,,,,,,,,
6dny1bmxcj6shc5382dno2al0,2025-09-06,Premiership,Carrick vs Cliftonville,0-1,1-2,v26_surprise,HTFT,2/1,30.5,False,10.1,LOST,False,0.0,actual=2/2,v26.surprise_pick,2/1,0.1401,0.59,1.97,62.8,0.642,,0.0667,0.0,0.0,66.2,"favorite_price_supported,reversal_prob_hot,quality_supports_reversal,favorite_odds_band_reversal_window,league_strict_reversal_prior,draw_pressure_supports_swing",
6dny1bmxcj6shc5382dno2al0,2025-09-06,Premiership,Carrick vs Cliftonville,0-1,1-2,v26_aggressive,HTFT,1/1,4.36,True,14.6,LOST,True,-1.0,actual=2/2,v26.aggressive_pick,1/1,,,,,,,,,,,,
9d9nwo82prx06riy5odgnr190,2025-09-06,2. Lig,Walsall vs Chesterfield,1-0,1-0,v25_aggressive,HTFT,X/2,5.38,True,10.3,LOST,True,-1.0,actual=1/1,v25.aggressive_pick,X/2,,,,,,,,,,,,
9d9nwo82prx06riy5odgnr190,2025-09-06,2. Lig,Walsall vs Chesterfield,1-0,1-0,v26_aggressive,HTFT,2/2,3.78,True,35.1,LOST,True,-1.0,actual=1/1,v26.aggressive_pick,2/2,,,,,,,,,,,,
7dwtx5tr7g66bsqkoc1wos9as,2025-09-06,1. Lig,Bolton vs Wimbledon,1-0,3-0,v25_aggressive,HTFT,X/1,3.76,True,12.1,LOST,True,-1.0,actual=1/1,v25.aggressive_pick,X/1,,,,,,,,,,,,
7dwtx5tr7g66bsqkoc1wos9as,2025-09-06,1. Lig,Bolton vs Wimbledon,1-0,3-0,v26_aggressive,HTFT,1/1,1.81,True,33.3,WON,True,0.81,actual=1/1,v26.aggressive_pick,1/1,,,,,,,,,,,,
7c85gguekhbhadtm7qdbgir6c,2025-09-06,Ulusal Lig,Tamworth vs Eastleigh,0-0,1-0,v25_aggressive,HTFT,1/2,34.5,True,14.1,LOST,True,-1.0,actual=X/1,v25.aggressive_pick,1/2,,,,,,,,,,,,
7c85gguekhbhadtm7qdbgir6c,2025-09-06,Ulusal Lig,Tamworth vs Eastleigh,0-0,1-0,v26_aggressive,HTFT,2/2,5.53,True,14.8,LOST,True,-1.0,actual=X/1,v26.aggressive_pick,2/2,,,,,,,,,,,,
1 match_id date league match ht_score final_score strategy market pick odds playable confidence result counted_in_roi profit_flat resolution_note source reversal_pick reversal_prob favorite_gap favorite_odd support_score odds_band_score odds_band_label league_reversal_rate league_strict_rev_rate referee_strict_rev_rate surprise_score reason_codes pick_reason
2 b6uzz042mizu0dqpci538z4lw 2025-09-06 Süper Kupa V. Sarsfield vs C. Cordoba 0-0 2-0 v25_aggressive HTFT 2/1 34.5 True 21.0 LOST True -1.0 actual=X/1 v25.aggressive_pick 2/1
3 b6uzz042mizu0dqpci538z4lw 2025-09-06 Süper Kupa V. Sarsfield vs C. Cordoba 0-0 2-0 v26_aggressive HTFT 1/1 3.26 True 16.0 LOST True -1.0 actual=X/1 v26.aggressive_pick 1/1
4 ytsc38rm4j22govgwo3as6j8 2025-09-06 DK Elemeler Avusturya vs G. Kıbrıs Rum Kesimi 0-0 1-0 v25_aggressive HTFT X/1 4.01 True 11.4 WON True 3.01 actual=X/1 v25.aggressive_pick X/1
5 cfar57gsu6hy770n7e58u8duc 2025-09-06 Eerste Divisie Cambuur vs Willem II 0-1 2-2 v25_aggressive HTFT 2/1 20.7 True 15.6 LOST True -1.0 actual=2/X v25.aggressive_pick 2/1
6 cfar57gsu6hy770n7e58u8duc 2025-09-06 Eerste Divisie Cambuur vs Willem II 0-1 2-2 v26_aggressive HTFT 1/1 2.13 True 14.4 LOST True -1.0 actual=2/X v26.aggressive_pick 1/1
7 99r0d7ggi1169dhklo4eroopg 2025-09-06 2. Lig Bromley vs Gillingham 2-0 2-2 v25_aggressive HTFT 2/1 30.5 True 25.6 LOST True -1.0 actual=1/X v25.aggressive_pick 2/1
8 99r0d7ggi1169dhklo4eroopg 2025-09-06 2. Lig Bromley vs Gillingham 2-0 2-2 v26_surprise HTFT 1/2 34.5 False 4.9 LOST False 0.0 actual=1/X v26.surprise_pick 1/2 0.0679 1.02 1.92 73.5 0.642 0.04 0.0 0.0 62.7 favorite_gap_large,favorite_price_supported,reversal_prob_warm,quality_supports_reversal,favorite_odds_band_reversal_window,favorite_streak_break_window
9 99r0d7ggi1169dhklo4eroopg 2025-09-06 2. Lig Bromley vs Gillingham 2-0 2-2 v26_aggressive HTFT 1/1 3.16 True 16.1 LOST True -1.0 actual=1/X v26.aggressive_pick 1/1
10 790qnaweqoyffb5ndxnb4hlas 2025-09-06 Ulusal Lig Aldershot vs Brackley 1-0 2-2 v25_aggressive HTFT X/2 6.07 True 9.0 LOST True -1.0 actual=1/X v25.aggressive_pick X/2
11 790qnaweqoyffb5ndxnb4hlas 2025-09-06 Ulusal Lig Aldershot vs Brackley 1-0 2-2 v26_aggressive HTFT 2/2 3.8 True 37.1 LOST True -1.0 actual=1/X v26.aggressive_pick 2/2
12 8808y1x2hmz52k3mr598orqc4 2025-09-06 DK Elemeler Ermenistan vs Portekiz 0-3 0-5 v25_aggressive HTFT X/2 4.03 True 11.6 LOST True -1.0 actual=2/2 v25.aggressive_pick X/2
13 7gfnwoxqz5o2clin40a85uqdw 2025-09-06 1. Lig Port Vale vs Leyton Orient 1-2 2-3 v25_aggressive HTFT X/1 4.84 True 12.3 LOST True -1.0 actual=2/2 v25.aggressive_pick X/1
14 7gfnwoxqz5o2clin40a85uqdw 2025-09-06 1. Lig Port Vale vs Leyton Orient 1-2 2-3 v26_surprise HTFT 1/2 33.0 False 5.4 LOST False 0.0 actual=2/2 v26.surprise_pick 1/2 0.0749 0.62 1.97 52.1 0.642 0.044 0.0 0.0 57.0 favorite_gap_large,favorite_price_supported,reversal_prob_warm,draw_swing_support,quality_supports_reversal,favorite_odds_band_reversal_window
15 7gfnwoxqz5o2clin40a85uqdw 2025-09-06 1. Lig Port Vale vs Leyton Orient 1-2 2-3 v26_aggressive HTFT 2/2 4.51 True 17.3 WON True 3.51 actual=2/2 v26.aggressive_pick 2/2
16 7fld91ykj1kfuoc8wn4r2frbo 2025-09-06 1. Lig Lincoln City vs Wigan Ath 2-1 2-2 v25_aggressive HTFT X/1 4.7 True 19.2 LOST True -1.0 actual=1/X v25.aggressive_pick X/1
17 7fld91ykj1kfuoc8wn4r2frbo 2025-09-06 1. Lig Lincoln City vs Wigan Ath 2-1 2-2 v26_surprise HTFT 1/2 34.5 False 7.1 LOST False 0.0 actual=1/X v26.surprise_pick 1/2 0.0984 0.71 2.0 61.5 0.642 0.044 0.0 0.0 61.7 favorite_gap_large,favorite_price_supported,reversal_prob_hot,upset_risk_detected,quality_supports_reversal,favorite_odds_band_reversal_window
18 7fld91ykj1kfuoc8wn4r2frbo 2025-09-06 1. Lig Lincoln City vs Wigan Ath 2-1 2-2 v26_aggressive HTFT 1/1 3.36 True 19.5 LOST True -1.0 actual=1/X v26.aggressive_pick 1/1
19 7i4nhkex1qssyp3x6rsgj03ro 2025-09-06 1. Lig Wycombe vs Mansfield 1-0 2-0 v25_aggressive HTFT X/2 6.92 True 11.1 LOST True -1.0 actual=1/1 v25.aggressive_pick X/2
20 7i4nhkex1qssyp3x6rsgj03ro 2025-09-06 1. Lig Wycombe vs Mansfield 1-0 2-0 v26_main_htft HTFT 2/2 5.22 False 39.9 LOST False 0.0 actual=1/1 v26.main_pick 0.0
21 7hagai8xazmsj5exw7idwhhck 2025-09-06 1. Lig Rotherham vs Exeter City 1-0 1-0 v25_aggressive HTFT X/2 6.28 True 6.7 LOST True -1.0 actual=1/1 v25.aggressive_pick X/2
22 7hagai8xazmsj5exw7idwhhck 2025-09-06 1. Lig Rotherham vs Exeter City 1-0 1-0 v26_aggressive HTFT 2/2 4.47 True 29.6 LOST True -1.0 actual=1/1 v26.aggressive_pick 2/2
23 6e37x17qvk0snpokd1698lkb8 2025-09-06 Premiership Crusaders vs Coleraine 0-3 0-4 v25_aggressive HTFT X/2 4.24 True 11.5 LOST True -1.0 actual=2/2 v25.aggressive_pick X/2
24 6e37x17qvk0snpokd1698lkb8 2025-09-06 Premiership Crusaders vs Coleraine 0-3 0-4 v26_aggressive HTFT 2/2 2.32 True 37.7 WON True 1.32 actual=2/2 v26.aggressive_pick 2/2
25 6f0fqlafaei9oj8yd9hdi6rdg 2025-09-06 Premiership Linfield vs Portadown 0-0 3-0 v25_aggressive HTFT 2/1 23.2 True 18.6 LOST True -1.0 actual=X/1 v25.aggressive_pick 2/1
26 6f0fqlafaei9oj8yd9hdi6rdg 2025-09-06 Premiership Linfield vs Portadown 0-0 3-0 v26_aggressive HTFT 1/1 1.74 True 20.4 LOST True -1.0 actual=X/1 v26.aggressive_pick 1/1
27 6dny1bmxcj6shc5382dno2al0 2025-09-06 Premiership Carrick vs Cliftonville 0-1 1-2 v25_aggressive HTFT 2/1 30.5 True 14.4 LOST True -1.0 actual=2/2 v25.aggressive_pick 2/1
28 6dny1bmxcj6shc5382dno2al0 2025-09-06 Premiership Carrick vs Cliftonville 0-1 1-2 v26_surprise HTFT 2/1 30.5 False 10.1 LOST False 0.0 actual=2/2 v26.surprise_pick 2/1 0.1401 0.59 1.97 62.8 0.642 0.0667 0.0 0.0 66.2 favorite_price_supported,reversal_prob_hot,quality_supports_reversal,favorite_odds_band_reversal_window,league_strict_reversal_prior,draw_pressure_supports_swing
29 6dny1bmxcj6shc5382dno2al0 2025-09-06 Premiership Carrick vs Cliftonville 0-1 1-2 v26_aggressive HTFT 1/1 4.36 True 14.6 LOST True -1.0 actual=2/2 v26.aggressive_pick 1/1
30 9d9nwo82prx06riy5odgnr190 2025-09-06 2. Lig Walsall vs Chesterfield 1-0 1-0 v25_aggressive HTFT X/2 5.38 True 10.3 LOST True -1.0 actual=1/1 v25.aggressive_pick X/2
31 9d9nwo82prx06riy5odgnr190 2025-09-06 2. Lig Walsall vs Chesterfield 1-0 1-0 v26_aggressive HTFT 2/2 3.78 True 35.1 LOST True -1.0 actual=1/1 v26.aggressive_pick 2/2
32 7dwtx5tr7g66bsqkoc1wos9as 2025-09-06 1. Lig Bolton vs Wimbledon 1-0 3-0 v25_aggressive HTFT X/1 3.76 True 12.1 LOST True -1.0 actual=1/1 v25.aggressive_pick X/1
33 7dwtx5tr7g66bsqkoc1wos9as 2025-09-06 1. Lig Bolton vs Wimbledon 1-0 3-0 v26_aggressive HTFT 1/1 1.81 True 33.3 WON True 0.81 actual=1/1 v26.aggressive_pick 1/1
34 7c85gguekhbhadtm7qdbgir6c 2025-09-06 Ulusal Lig Tamworth vs Eastleigh 0-0 1-0 v25_aggressive HTFT 1/2 34.5 True 14.1 LOST True -1.0 actual=X/1 v25.aggressive_pick 1/2
35 7c85gguekhbhadtm7qdbgir6c 2025-09-06 Ulusal Lig Tamworth vs Eastleigh 0-0 1-0 v26_aggressive HTFT 2/2 5.53 True 14.8 LOST True -1.0 actual=X/1 v26.aggressive_pick 2/2
ai-engine/reports/backtest_v26_shadow_htft_upset.json
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ai-engine/reports/backtest_v26_shadow_htft_upset.md
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# HT/FT + Upset Backtest
- Sample: last 120 finished football matches
- Scope: only HT/FT reversal and upset-oriented picks
- ROI: flat `1 unit` per played pick
- Generated at: 2026-04-21T12:32:14.419378+00:00
## Strategy Summary
| Strategy | Candidates | Played | Won | Lost | Hit Rate | Profit | ROI |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| v25_aggressive | 16 | 16 | 1 | 15 | 6.25% | -11.99 | -74.94% |
| v26_surprise | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | +0.00 | +0.00% |
| v26_aggressive | 13 | 13 | 3 | 10 | 23.08% | -4.36 | -33.54% |
| v26_main_htft | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | +0.00 | +0.00% |
## v26 Surprise By Reversal Type
| Reversal | Candidates | Played | Won | Lost | Profit | ROI |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| 1/2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0.00 | +0.00% |
| 2/1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0.00 | +0.00% |
| X/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0.00 | +0.00% |
| X/2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0.00 | +0.00% |
## Match Detail
| Date | Match | HT | FT | v25 aggressive | v26 surprise | v26 aggressive | v26 main HTFT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-06 | Forge FC vs Hfx Wan | 0-0 | 1-0 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Estoril vs Santa Clara | 0-0 | 0-1 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Tenerife vs Merida AD | 1-0 | 3-0 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Ibiza vs Hercules | 2-1 | 2-1 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | V. Sarsfield vs C. Cordoba | 0-0 | 2-0 | 2/1 (LOST, played, -1.00) | - | 1/1 (LOST, played, -1.00) | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Botafogo vs Paranaense | 0-1 | 1-3 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | San Felipe vs Curico Unido | 2-0 | 4-2 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Nacional Potosi vs Independiente | 0-1 | 0-3 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Avusturya vs G. Kıbrıs Rum Kesimi | 0-0 | 1-0 | X/1 (WON, played, +3.01) | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | CD Estepona FS vs Linares | 1-0 | 1-1 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Pergolettese vs Cittadella | 2-1 | 3-1 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Union Brescia vs Pro Vercelli | 2-0 | 5-0 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Casertana vs Potenza | 1-1 | 3-2 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Montevideo vs Danubio | 0-2 | 0-2 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Hoogstraten vs W. Beveren | 0-0 | 1-3 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Cambuur vs Willem II | 0-1 | 2-2 | 2/1 (LOST, played, -1.00) | - | 1/1 (LOST, played, -1.00) | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Tlaxcala vs A. Oaxaca | 1-0 | 2-1 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | JS Kabylie vs Olympique Akbou | 0-0 | 0-0 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | CD A. Baleares vs Castellon II | 3-0 | 3-0 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Karlovac 1919 vs Dugopolje | 0-0 | 1-0 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | San Sebastian R. vs RSD Alcala | 1-0 | 1-0 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Hindistan U23 vs Katar U23 | 0-1 | 1-2 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Estradense vs Boiro | 0-0 | 1-0 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Yeclano II vs El Palmar | 1-0 | 2-1 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Montlouis vs La Roche | 0-3 | 1-4 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | L'Hospitalet vs San Cristobal | 0-0 | 1-0 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Marchamalo vs Guadalajara II | 1-1 | 1-1 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Real Zaragoza vs R. Valladolid | 0-0 | 1-1 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Bromley vs Gillingham | 2-0 | 2-2 | 2/1 (LOST, played, -1.00) | 1/2 (LOST, not played, +0.00) | 1/1 (LOST, played, -1.00) | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Ajman Club vs Al Wahda | 2-1 | 2-4 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Aldershot vs Brackley | 1-0 | 2-2 | X/2 (LOST, played, -1.00) | - | 2/2 (LOST, played, -1.00) | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Barbastro vs UE Olot | 1-0 | 1-1 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | CA Atlanta vs Guemes | 1-0 | 1-0 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Pulpileno vs UCAM Murcia II | 0-0 | 1-1 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Mojados vs Santa Marta | 0-2 | 1-3 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Ermenistan vs Portekiz | 0-3 | 0-5 | X/2 (LOST, played, -1.00) | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | USM Khenchela vs CR Belouizdad | 1-0 | 1-1 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Nafta vs Gorica | 0-0 | 1-0 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | CS Cerrito vs Atenas | 0-0 | 0-3 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | VfB Oldenburg vs Hannoverscher | 4-1 | 6-1 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Lealtad vs Numancia | 1-1 | 1-1 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Astorga vs Real Avila | 0-0 | 1-3 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Grindavik vs IR Reykjavik | 2-1 | 3-1 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Andratx vs Sant Andreu | 0-0 | 1-0 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Arenas Getxo vs Cacereno | 2-1 | 2-2 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Aegir vs Dalvik / Reynir | 1-1 | 2-1 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Laval II vs Cesson | 0-0 | 0-1 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Palencia CF vs Arandina | 3-0 | 4-0 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Leioa vs Pasaia | 0-0 | 0-1 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Vic vs UE Cornella | 0-0 | 0-1 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Voltigeurs vs Granville | 1-2 | 3-2 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Bobigny vs Creteil | 0-1 | 1-1 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Beauvais vs Furiani Agliani | 0-0 | 2-2 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Oissel vs Caen II | 0-1 | 0-2 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Cartagena LU II vs Un. Molinense | 0-2 | 1-2 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Hercules II vs Atzeneta | 0-1 | 0-3 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Sassari vs Pianese | 0-0 | 0-2 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Giugliano vs Foggia | 0-0 | 1-0 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Sorrento vs Trapani 1905 | 0-0 | 1-2 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Ascoli vs Juventus U23 | 0-0 | 0-0 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Arezzo vs Vis Pesaro | 0-0 | 1-0 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Ath. Carpi vs Campobasso | 0-0 | 2-2 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Oviedo II vs Sarriana | 2-0 | 3-2 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Llosetense vs Platges | 0-0 | 1-0 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Le Havre (K) vs Strasbourg (K) | 2-2 | 2-2 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Montpellier (K) vs Fleury 91 (K) | 0-1 | 1-2 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Bistrica vs NK Krsko | 3-0 | 6-0 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Bilje vs Dravinja | 1-0 | 2-0 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Nantes (K) vs Saint-Etienne (K) | 2-1 | 2-1 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Jadran Dekani vs NK Ilirija | 3-1 | 3-1 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Tabor Sezana vs Jesenice | 0-0 | 1-0 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Alaves II vs Logrones | 0-0 | 2-0 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Unionistas II vs Tordesillas | 1-1 | 1-1 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Leganes II vs Alcorcon II | 0-0 | 0-0 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Volna Pinsk vs Bumprom | 0-1 | 0-1 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | L. Mikulas vs S. Bratislava II | 0-0 | 2-1 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Dubrava vs Hrvace | 0-1 | 2-1 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Plymouth vs Stockport | 2-1 | 4-2 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Port Vale vs Leyton Orient | 1-2 | 2-3 | X/1 (LOST, played, -1.00) | 1/2 (LOST, not played, +0.00) | 2/2 (WON, played, +3.51) | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Huddersfield vs Peterborough | 0-0 | 3-2 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Lincoln City vs Wigan Ath | 2-1 | 2-2 | X/1 (LOST, played, -1.00) | 1/2 (LOST, not played, +0.00) | 1/1 (LOST, played, -1.00) | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Wycombe vs Mansfield | 1-0 | 2-0 | X/2 (LOST, played, -1.00) | - | - | 2/2 (LOST, not played, +0.00) |
| 2025-09-06 | Rotherham vs Exeter City | 1-0 | 1-0 | X/2 (LOST, played, -1.00) | - | 2/2 (LOST, played, -1.00) | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Ballymena Utd vs Glentoran | 0-2 | 0-2 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Crusaders vs Coleraine | 0-3 | 0-4 | X/2 (LOST, played, -1.00) | - | 2/2 (WON, played, +1.32) | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Glenavon vs Dungannon | 0-2 | 0-2 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Linfield vs Portadown | 0-0 | 3-0 | 2/1 (LOST, played, -1.00) | - | 1/1 (LOST, played, -1.00) | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Colchester vs Crewe | 0-1 | 1-1 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | G. Morton vs Raith Rovers | 0-0 | 0-1 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Puchov vs Pohronie | 0-1 | 3-1 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Carrick vs Cliftonville | 0-1 | 1-2 | 2/1 (LOST, played, -1.00) | 2/1 (LOST, not played, +0.00) | 1/1 (LOST, played, -1.00) | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Harrogate vs Crawley Town | 0-1 | 0-1 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Walsall vs Chesterfield | 1-0 | 1-0 | X/2 (LOST, played, -1.00) | - | 2/2 (LOST, played, -1.00) | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Banik Lehota vs Samorin | 1-0 | 2-1 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Bolton vs Wimbledon | 1-0 | 3-0 | X/1 (LOST, played, -1.00) | - | 1/1 (WON, played, +0.81) | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Edinburgh vs Hearts II | 4-1 | 4-2 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Kelty Hearts vs Stranraer | 0-0 | 3-0 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Forfar vs Dundee II | 2-1 | 4-1 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Spartans vs Hibernian II | 2-0 | 5-1 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | East Kilbride vs Hamilton | 0-2 | 2-4 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Annan Ath vs St. Mirren II | 0-1 | 2-2 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | East Fife vs Dumbarton | 1-0 | 1-1 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Clyde vs Motherwell II | 3-0 | 4-0 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Peterhead vs Dundee United II | 2-0 | 3-0 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Montrose vs Aberdeen II | 2-1 | 3-1 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Elgin City vs Cove Rangers | 1-0 | 1-0 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Queen Of S. vs Rangers II | 0-0 | 2-1 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Boston Utd vs Solihull | 1-1 | 1-2 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Carlisle vs Truro | 2-0 | 3-0 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Southend vs Halifax | 1-0 | 3-0 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Woking vs Gateshead | 2-0 | 5-0 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Tamworth vs Eastleigh | 0-0 | 1-0 | 1/2 (LOST, played, -1.00) | - | 2/2 (LOST, played, -1.00) | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Alcorcon vs Teruel | 1-1 | 2-1 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Merthyr vs Worksop | 0-0 | 2-0 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Chesham Utd vs Bath | 0-0 | 0-0 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Southport vs South Shields | 0-0 | 0-0 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Kidderminster vs Macclesfield | 0-0 | 1-1 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Throttur Vogar vs Höttur / Huginn | 0-0 | 2-1 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Alfreton vs Kings Lynn | 0-0 | 1-1 | - | - | - | - |
| 2025-09-06 | Buxton vs Oxford City | 1-0 | 2-1 | - | - | - | - |
ai-engine/reports/backtest_v26_shadow_roi_detail.json
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ai-engine/reports/backtest_v26_shadow_roi_picks.csv
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ai-engine/reports/backtest_v26_shadow_roi_report.md
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ai-engine/reports/training_v26_shadow.json
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{
"version": "v26.shadow.0",
"calibration_version": "v26.shadow.calib.0",
"train_rows": 6853,
"validation_rows": 1469,
"label_priors": {
"MS": 0.4404,
"OU25": 0.5214,
"BTTS": 0.5398,
"HT": 0.4275,
"HTFT": 0.26,
"CARDS": 0.6052
},
"artifact_path": "/Users/piton/Documents/GitHub/iddaai/iddaai-be/ai-engine/models/v26_shadow/market_profiles.json",
"notes": [
"v26.shadow runtime currently uses artifact-based calibration and ROI gating",
"market profile JSON remains the source of truth for runtime thresholds"
]
}