feat: league tier system + retrained V25 models (48 quality leagues)

- Add LeagueTier DB model and Prisma schema
- Add league-tiers service (CRUD, sync, retrain trigger)
- Add league-tiers controller with admin API endpoints
- Add /v1/admin/retrain endpoint in AI engine (extract→train→reload pipeline)
- Retrain V25 Pro with 48 quality leagues (MS accuracy: 26.9%→51.4%)
- Update qualified_leagues.json (443→48 leagues)
- Include V25 model files in repo for Docker deployment

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

mds/changelog-2026-05-20.md

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+# Changelog - 2026-05-20
+
+Bu dokuman, 20 Mayis 2026 tarihinde yapilan **League Tier Sistemi** calismasini ozetler. Amac: model egitiminde kullanilan ligleri kalite bazli filtreleyerek tahmin dogrulugunu artirmak.
+
+## 1. Problem Analizi
+
+- Model 443 lig ile egitiliyordu (DB'de toplam 1142 lig).
+- Dusuk kaliteli ligler (zayif bahis pazari, eksik veri) modelin sinyalini bozuyordu.
+- Mevcut performans: **MS %26.9** (rastgeleden kotu), **OU2.5 %57.7**, **BTTS %53.8**
+- Model hic "X" (draw) tahmini yapmiyordu — agir home bias vardi.
+- 19 gercek bahisten 5 kazanc, 14 kayip = **%26.3 win rate, -9.68 unit**
+
+## 2. Cozum: League Tier Sistemi
+
+Bookmaker margin (overround) analizine dayanarak 48 kaliteli lig secildi:
+
+| Tier | Isim | Lig Sayisi | Kriter |
+|------|------|-----------|--------|
+| 1 | Elmas | 10 | En iyi veri kalitesi, en dusuk margin (Premier League, La Liga, Serie A vb.) |
+| 2 | Altin | 20 | Iyi veri kalitesi (Eredivisie, Ligue 2, Championship vb.) |
+| 3 | Gumus | 18 | Kabul edilebilir veri (Ekstraklasa, MLS, Liga MX vb.) |
+
+## 3. Veritabani Degisiklikleri
+
+### Yeni tablo: `league_tiers`
+```sql
+CREATE TABLE league_tiers (
+  id SERIAL PRIMARY KEY,
+  league_id TEXT NOT NULL UNIQUE REFERENCES leagues(id) ON DELETE CASCADE,
+  tier INT NOT NULL DEFAULT 1,
+  is_active BOOLEAN NOT NULL DEFAULT TRUE,
+  added_by TEXT,
+  notes TEXT,
+  created_at TIMESTAMPTZ DEFAULT NOW(),
+  updated_at TIMESTAMPTZ DEFAULT NOW()
+);
+CREATE INDEX idx_league_tiers_tier_active ON league_tiers(tier, is_active);
+```
+
+### Prisma schema guncellendi
+- `LeagueTier` modeli eklendi (`prisma/schema.prisma`)
+- `League` modeline `leagueTier LeagueTier?` iliskisi eklendi
+- Not: Migration shadow DB hatasi nedeniyle tablo dogrudan SQL ile olusturuldu
+
+## 4. Backend Degisiklikleri
+
+### Yeni dosyalar
+
+**`src/modules/leagues/league-tiers.service.ts`**
+- `findAll()` — tum tier'lari listele
+- `findActive()` — aktif tier'lari listele
+- `findByTier(tier)` — belirli tier'daki ligler
+- `addLeague(leagueId, tier, notes, addedBy)` — lig ekle/guncelle (upsert), otomatik JSON sync + retrain tetikle
+- `removeLeague(leagueId)` — ligi pasif yap (soft delete), JSON sync
+- `updateTier(leagueId, tier)` — tier seviyesi degistir
+- `deleteLeague(leagueId)` — kalici sil
+- `syncQualifiedLeagues()` — DB'den `qualified_leagues.json` dosyasini guncelle
+- `triggerModelRetrain()` — AI engine'e POST `/v1/admin/retrain`
+- `getStats()` — tier istatistikleri + toplam qualified match sayisi
+
+**`src/modules/leagues/league-tiers.controller.ts`**
+- `GET /admin/league-tiers` — listele (`?active=true` filtreli)
+- `GET /admin/league-tiers/stats` — istatistikler
+- `GET /admin/league-tiers/tier/:tier` — tier bazli filtre
+- `POST /admin/league-tiers` — lig ekle (body: `{ leagueId, tier?, notes?, addedBy? }`)
+- `PUT /admin/league-tiers/:leagueId/tier` — tier guncelle
+- `PUT /admin/league-tiers/:leagueId/deactivate` — pasif yap
+- `DELETE /admin/league-tiers/:leagueId` — kalici sil
+- `POST /admin/league-tiers/sync` — JSON sync tetikle
+- `POST /admin/league-tiers/retrain` — model retrain tetikle
+- Tum endpointler `@Roles("superadmin")` ile korumali
+
+### Guncellenen dosyalar
+
+**`src/modules/leagues/leagues.module.ts`**
+- `HttpModule` import eklendi (retrain HTTP cagirisi icin)
+- `LeagueTiersController` ve `LeagueTiersService` register edildi
+
+## 5. qualified_leagues.json Sync
+
+- Onceki durum: **443 lig**
+- Yeni durum: **48 lig** (DB'deki aktif tier'lardan)
+- `data-fetcher.task.ts` zaten bu dosyayi okuyor — yeni mac verisi sadece 48 lig icin cekilecek
+- `extract_training_data.py` zaten bu dosyayi okuyor — egitim verisi sadece 48 ligden gelecek
+
+## 6. Mevcut Veri Akisi
+
+```
+Admin Panel (lig ekle/cikar)
+    |
+    v
+LeagueTiersService.addLeague() / removeLeague()
+    |
+    +---> DB guncelle (league_tiers tablosu)
+    +---> syncQualifiedLeagues() ---> qualified_leagues.json guncelle
+    +---> triggerModelRetrain() ---> AI Engine POST /v1/admin/retrain
+    
+Data Fetcher (cron):
+    qualified_leagues.json ---> sadece bu liglerden live_matches cek
+
+Training Pipeline:
+    qualified_leagues.json ---> sadece bu liglerden training_data extract et
+```
+
+## 7. Yapilacaklar
+
+- [ ] AI engine'de `/v1/admin/retrain` endpoint olustur (Python tarafi)
+- [ ] Modeli yeni 48 lig dataseti ile yeniden egit
+- [ ] Admin panel frontend'inde league tier yonetim UI'i
+- [ ] Draw blindness sorununu arastir (model hic X tahmini yapmiyor)
+- [ ] Prisma migration gecmisini duzelt (manual SQL → migration align)