first (part 3: src directory)

src/modules/spor-toto/services/toto-analytics.service.ts

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+import { Injectable, Logger } from '@nestjs/common';
+import { PrismaService } from '../../../database/prisma.service';
+
+/**
+ * Spor Toto Analitik Servisi
+ * - Havuz dağılım hesabı (%25/%20/%20/%35)
+ * - Expected Value (EV) hesabı
+ * - Devir geçmişi ve trend analizi
+ */
+@Injectable()
+export class TotoAnalyticsService {
+  private readonly logger = new Logger(TotoAnalyticsService.name);
+
+  constructor(private readonly prisma: PrismaService) {}
+
+  /**
+   * Havuz dağılımını hesapla
+   * Spor Toto havuz dağılımı:
+   * %35 → 15 bilen
+   * %20 → 14 bilen
+   * %20 → 13 bilen
+   * %25 → 12 bilen
+   */
+  calculatePoolDistribution(totalPool: number): {
+    pool15: number;
+    pool14: number;
+    pool13: number;
+    pool12: number;
+  } {
+    return {
+      pool15: totalPool * 0.35,
+      pool14: totalPool * 0.2,
+      pool13: totalPool * 0.2,
+      pool12: totalPool * 0.25,
+    };
+  }
+
+  /**
+   * Expected Value hesaplama
+   * EV = (Kazanma Olasılığı × Ödül) - Maliyet
+   *
+   * 15 maçın tamamını bilme olasılığı (hepsi tek tahmin):
+   * P = (1/3)^15 ≈ 1/14,348,907
+   */
+  calculateEV(
+    poolTotal: number,
+    rolloverAmount: number,
+    columnCost: number,
+    columnCount: number,
+  ): {
+    totalPool: number;
+    pool15: number;
+    probWin15: number;
+    ev15: number;
+    totalCost: number;
+    netEV: number;
+  } {
+    const effectivePool = poolTotal + rolloverAmount;
+    const distribution = this.calculatePoolDistribution(effectivePool);
+
+    // Basit olasılık: 1/3^15 (her maç bağımsız, 3 sonuç)
+    const probSingleColumn = 1 / Math.pow(3, 15); // ~6.97e-8
+    const probWin15 = 1 - Math.pow(1 - probSingleColumn, columnCount);
+
+    const totalCost = columnCost * columnCount;
+    const ev15 = probWin15 * distribution.pool15 - totalCost;
+
+    return {
+      totalPool: effectivePool,
+      pool15: distribution.pool15,
+      probWin15,
+      ev15,
+      totalCost,
+      netEV: ev15,
+    };
+  }
+
+  /**
+   * Devir geçmişi ve trend analizi
+   */
+  async getRolloverHistory(limit = 10): Promise<{
+    history: Array<{
+      gameCycleNo: number;
+      programName: string | null;
+      poolTotal: number | null;
+      rolloverAmount: number | null;
+      winners15: number;
+      prize15: number | null;
+    }>;
+    averageRollover: number;
+    consecutiveRollovers: number;
+  }> {
+    const bulletins = await this.prisma.totoBulletin.findMany({
+      where: { status: 'COMPLETED' },
+      orderBy: { gameCycleNo: 'desc' },
+      take: limit,
+      include: { result: true },
+    });
+
+    const history = bulletins.map((b) => ({
+      gameCycleNo: b.gameCycleNo,
+      programName: b.programName,
+      poolTotal: b.poolTotal,
+      rolloverAmount: b.rolloverAmount,
+      winners15: b.result?.winners15 ?? 0,
+      prize15: b.result?.prize15 ?? null,
+    }));
+
+    // Ortalama devir miktarı
+    const rollovers = history
+      .map((h) => h.rolloverAmount ?? 0)
+      .filter((r) => r > 0);
+    const averageRollover =
+      rollovers.length > 0
+        ? rollovers.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / rollovers.length
+        : 0;
+
+    // Ardışık devir sayısı (son kaç haftadır devir var)
+    let consecutiveRollovers = 0;
+    for (const h of history) {
+      if (h.winners15 === 0) {
+        consecutiveRollovers++;
+      } else {
+        break;
+      }
+    }
+
+    return { history, averageRollover, consecutiveRollovers };
+  }
+
+  /**
+   * Bülten istatistikleri
+   */
+  async getBulletinStats(bulletinId: string): Promise<{
+    poolDistribution: {
+      pool15: number;
+      pool14: number;
+      pool13: number;
+      pool12: number;
+    } | null;
+    ev: {
+      totalPool: number;
+      pool15: number;
+      probWin15: number;
+      ev15: number;
+      totalCost: number;
+      netEV: number;
+    } | null;
+    rolloverInfo: { averageRollover: number; consecutiveRollovers: number };
+  }> {
+    const bulletin = await this.prisma.totoBulletin.findUnique({
+      where: { id: bulletinId },
+    });
+
+    if (!bulletin) {
+      return {
+        poolDistribution: null,
+        ev: null,
+        rolloverInfo: { averageRollover: 0, consecutiveRollovers: 0 },
+      };
+    }
+
+    const poolDistribution = bulletin.poolTotal
+      ? this.calculatePoolDistribution(
+          bulletin.poolTotal + (bulletin.rolloverAmount ?? 0),
+        )
+      : null;
+
+    const ev =
+      bulletin.poolTotal != null
+        ? this.calculateEV(
+            bulletin.poolTotal,
+            bulletin.rolloverAmount ?? 0,
+            1, // birim fiyat
+            1, // tek kolon bazında
+          )
+        : null;
+
+    const rolloverInfo = await this.getRolloverHistory(20);
+
+    return {
+      poolDistribution,
+      ev,
+      rolloverInfo: {
+        averageRollover: rolloverInfo.averageRollover,
+        consecutiveRollovers: rolloverInfo.consecutiveRollovers,
+      },
+    };
+  }
+}